Powell on long and variable leads

Long time readers know that I don’t believe in long and variable lags. I view the stance of monetary policy in terms of NGDP growth expectations, and in my view a change in NGDP growth expectations leads to a fairly quick change in current NGDP.

I’ve also argued that there might be long and variable leads, if you define the stance of monetary policy using metrics such as the money supply or the fed funds rate (instead of NGDP growth expectations). We saw this in the Great Depression, when NGDP soared after March of 1933 in response to actions that didn’t affect the current money supply, but were expected to increase its future growth rate.

A change in the future path of monetary policy affects current financial conditions, which affects near-term NGDP growth.

At today’s press conference, I saw a few hints that Jay Powell is edging in the direction of embracing long and variable leads:

There was an old literature that made those lags out to be fairly long. There’s newer literature that says they’re shorter. The truth is we don’t have a lot of data of inflation this high in what is now the modern economy. One big difference is that it used to be you would raise the federal funds rate. Conditions would react and that would affect economic activity. Now financial conditions react well before in expectation of monetary policy. That’s the way it has moved for a quarter of a century, in the direction of financial conditions, then monetary policy. Because the markets are thinking what is the central bank going to do.

There are plenty of economists that also think that once financial conditions change that the effects on the economy are faster than they would have been before. We don’t know that. I guess I would say it’s highly uncertain.

My only quibble is that it’s always been true that there were long and variable leads, it’s just that mainstream economists are finally beginning to discover that fact.



27 Responses to “Powell on long and variable leads”

  1. Gravatar of George George
    2. November 2022 at 15:28

    Powell: “Now financial conditions react well before in expectation of monetary policy. That’s the way it has moved for a quarter of a century, in the direction of financial conditions, then monetary policy. Because the markets are thinking what is the central bank going to do.

    I think I know how this happened:

    Insider information is being leaked at an accelerating rate.

    We already know Congresspeople like Nancy Pelosi and Paul Pelosi (whose home now has broken glass on the OUTSIDE not the inside, from aerial footage, showing that DePape the leftist was likely trying to escape) conduct insider trading all the time on the stocks that their own legislation impacts.

    We already know the FBI and DOJ leaks like a sieve to the media. The day after Garland announced he stole documents from Trump’s home and said “I can’t say anything more as we ONLY speak through the courts”, suddenly pics and stories appeared in media outlets with the usual leftist hysteria.

    Same thing must be happening at the Fed.

    It has always been the case that ‘markets think what the Fed is going to do’. That isn’t new. What could cause the shift Powell alluded to? It can only be a shift in the information flow.

    ‘Financial conditions’, i.e. Congress power of the purse, banksters, the usual suspects, must be getting informed of what the Fed is going to do before the general public is informed.

    Or, from another angle, the Fed has always leaked what it is going to do, but the lack of accountability has made ‘financial conditions’ more brazen and overt about it, thus making it look like a new phenomena of ‘now financial conditions react well before’.


    So much for how our society has ‘elite insiders’ who exploit the public ‘outsiders’. What else happens to ‘outsiders’?


    Court Order outlines proven government/big tech censorship.

    To summarize, we learned Friday that Anthony Fauci, the State Department, CISA, the CDC, the White House and other government organizations have each engaged in unconstitutional, and quite frankly, Orwellian behavior, and it has been proven (not alleged, proven) that they have acted in this manner. Some gems? The head of CISA has designated your THOUGHTS as “critical infrastructure” within the United States government, and the Census Bureau got involved with tracking down people posting what the ministry of truth considers “Mis, dis, or Mal-information.” CISA is calling your thoughts “Cognitive Infrastructure,” and the Census Bureau is assisting the government with censoring facts it doesn’t like.

    This court order is absolutely astonishing. This case has brought to the fore a wide reaching, insidious plot to weaponize private business in a fascist attempt to stifle the speech of American citizens. Not only is it the stifling of speech, but it is a weaponization in order to ensure the American people are DECEIVED by government sponsored propaganda. This isn’t surface level; these actions have swayed elections, and caused the DEATH of untold numbers of Americans. It has polarized our society. It is evil. It must be stopped.

  2. Gravatar of yersinia pestis yersinia pestis
    2. November 2022 at 15:31

    its astounding to me that powell of “we’re not even thinking of thinking about raising rates” could sit back and watch fin conditions hock stick to the easiest ever, and fire up inflation and ndgdp to unsustainable levels, then be surprised the fin markets “ease” every time he or one of his boneheaded colleagues (daly) open the pie hole and the pivot meme rages like nero’s fire. get a clue fmoc: shut up and watch ngdp like a hawk till it drops to sustainable levels. a long way off with the endless
    open mouth stuff.

  3. Gravatar of George George
    2. November 2022 at 16:09

    Post #2:

    In his last chance to persuade voters before the midterms, Biden threatened that the wrong vote – votes for his opponents – was an existential threat to democracy.

    Got that everyone? The existential threat to democracy is…when the people vote for who they want. Much better to have that and crazy conspiracy theories about ‘break ins’ at the Pelosi house in the narrative, than Biden’s total failure as President. Glass broken on the OUTSIDE of the Pelosi home, suggesting DePape was trying to escape, not ‘break in’, but all the typical liars are smearing maga with it because they’re gullible and want to have an excuse to smear what they fear.

    Definition of stupid: Knowing he truth, seeing the truth, but still believing Joe Biden.


    In Brazil, there are HUGE crowds gathering around the Brazilian military command, asking for the military to intervene in the recent rigged election. They’re not taking kindly to a stolen election. One unforgettable scene was a girl giving flowers and the Brazil flag to a soldier. Bolsonaro still has not conceded. Of course, Google is suppressing this.


    Follow ZubyMusic, this guy is awake.

    “You need to understand how much power & money there is to gain and maintain by keeping large swaths of the population broke, in debt, sick, obese, drug addicted, uneducated, lonely, fearful, and divided against one another. Once yo understand it, the world makes more sense.”

    “If you pay attention, you’ll notice that every time ‘the masses’ start to notice just how much we’re getting screwed over, the political class and the media throw out another piece of red meat for us to tear each other apart over…it’s like clockwork, keeps us distracted.”

    So true!


    The same people who shut down your businesses, killed your careers, and then shamed you into taking dangerous vaccines, are now asking that you re-elect them so that they can keep their jobs. Never forget what they have done to you. And they want ‘amnesty’ now?

  4. Gravatar of MSS1914 MSS1914
    2. November 2022 at 16:40

    This statement by Powell during the press conference stood out to me:

    “But there’s no — I don’t have any sense we’ve overtightened or moved fast. I think it’s been a good and successful program that we’ve gotten this far this fast. Remember, though, that we still think there’s a need for ongoing rate increases. We have some ground left to cover here. And cover it we will.”

    If you know you have some more ground to cover, why not cover it now? Powell said multiple times that there is uncertainty as to how high rates might need to be raised, but if his best estimate is a rate higher than what they raised to today, why not just raise it to that level?

    Is there some theoretical justification for not raising rates faster than .75 basis points per month? What’s holding the Fed back?

  5. Gravatar of stephen stephen
    2. November 2022 at 20:32

    2 questions.

    Scott at the start of the year, you didn’t have much opinion about when the fed should start to raise rates. In hindsight, it seemed like the Fed was way behind the curve, but if my memory served me correctly, you were also behind the curve. I don’t know if there are any great NGDP futures markets, but what was NGDP pointing to at the begining of the year?

    The second question is about where we sit today. CPI seems to be by far the biggest economic indicator that the fed is watching. Can you tell how much a lag there is in CPI data? Since you push so much for NGDP, what is NGDP telling us vs what CPI is saying about current inflation?

  6. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    2. November 2022 at 22:04

    Stephen, Interest rates are not monetary policy, and thus I generally don’t offer a view on where interest rates should be set.

    But I’ve been highly critical of the Fed ever since I discovered in January that they abandoned FAIT (or perhaps never even intended to target the average inflation rate.)

    I focus on the REGIME, not the tactics.

    NGDP was way too high in the 4th quarter of 2021. NGDP and the CPI are telling us the same thing, monetary policy has been far too expansionary in 2022.

  7. Gravatar of Spencer Spencer
    3. November 2022 at 05:25

    JPow doesn’t know money from mud pie, so he can’t know anything about inflation. And that doesn’t even account for “money demand”, or Dr. Philip George’s “The Riddle of Money Finally Solved”.

    Nor does Divisia Monetary Aggregates, nor Shadow Stats.

    Leads / lags cannot be variable when you can predict both the flash crash in stocks and the flash crash in bonds, 6 months in advance and within one day.

    To the Keynesians, aggregate monetary demand is nominal-GDP, the demand for services (human) and final goods. This concept excludes the commonsense conclusion that the inflation process begins at the beginning (with raw material prices and processing costs at all stages of production) and continues through to the end.

  8. Gravatar of Spencer Spencer
    3. November 2022 at 05:29

    Virtually all demand drafts cleared through “total checkable deposits”. See G.6 Demand Deposit Turnover release. But Powell deemphasized the role of money in the economy.

    To coverup his ruse, Powell eliminated reserve requirements and destroyed deposit classifications. Powell eliminated the 6 withdrawal restrictions on savings accounts, which isolated money intended for spending, from the money held as savings. Powell thinks banks are intermediaries.

    And Bernanke contends: “a flawed and over-simplified monetarist doctrine that posits a direct relationship between the money supply and prices”.

    Neither of these Chairman knows a credit from a debit.

  9. Gravatar of Charlie Charlie
    3. November 2022 at 06:07

    Hi Scott,

    I made a picture of the SPF recent NGDP median forecast strings for David Beckworth. You might appreciate it–I think it came out pretty good.


    Can’t believe this didn’t go viral 🙂

  10. Gravatar of foosion foosion
    3. November 2022 at 07:15

    “Goldman Sachs have reviewed the historical rate-hike playbook for central banks in Group of 10 countries. It… isn’t entirely discouraging.

    “It goes a little something like this:
    — hike until something breaks
    — try to fix whatever broke by cutting rates”


  11. Gravatar of Klaus Klaus
    3. November 2022 at 09:36


    They should add a third bullet point:
    – then continue to arrogate our unelected selves as smarter and more enlightened than everyone else who are continually and repeatedly and relentlessly OPENLY smeared as sheep and cattle, as so stupid and ‘dangerous’ that there is no better solution than for everyone else to continue to be exploited and harmed by the messes we are creating, and if you disagree we will smear you, and if you dissent we’ll smear you again, and we’ll continue to smear you until the weakest minded among you relent, and for those who continue to be belligerent, we will weaponize media and law enforcement and use puppet Presidents to smear you as ‘extremist’ and a ‘threat to our democracy’ and even use blackmail against you, and if all that doesn’t work, we’ll shoot you like we did JFK.

  12. Gravatar of Klaus Klaus
    3. November 2022 at 10:41

    Why does the ‘elite’ left hate Trump? Many reasons, but one main reason is that Trump has attracted more Democrats into the ‘new’ Republican Party than any other President ever in history.

    Hispanics, Blacks, Jews, are FLOCKING away from the Regime. It’s a freaking crime syndicate posing as a legitimate political force.

    First President since the communists took over China that recognized the TRUE THREAT the communist Regime in America actually is. Communists weaponize INFORMATION and makes gullible populations believe that lies are truths and truths are lies.

    Biden: All the evidence, no investigations.
    Trump: No evidence, all the investigations.

    The people aren’t blind. They’re not stupid. They see a blatant two tier system of justice under the Democrat/RINO Regime.

    They impeached Trump twice for nothing. They want to indict him for holding documents, perfectly legal. They want to plunder his business and their excuse is a house, car and education perk for an employee.

    Does anyone really believe Joe Biden got 81 million votes campaigning from his basement? Millions more than Barack Obama? With what we know now was a rigged and stolen election based on conclusive evidence, there is ZERO probability Biden got 81 million votes.

    Victims of ‘personality cults’, particularly the narcissistic ones, are often the first to accuse others of being in a personality cult, to put the accusation into the narrative first in a cowardly attempt to prevent or deflect from being called out. The loudest accusers of ‘personality cult’ are really just trying to justify why their cult is best.

    “Listen to me everyone, tell me I am right everyone, and if anyone dares suggest or state that anything I am saying is wrong or misinformed, which tells me you don’t want me as your cult leader, I will smear you as belonging to a personality cult first so that everyone is tricked into associating that label with you rather than me.”

    A proved tactic of the communists in America is to accuse others of what they themselves are doing.

    So, we see the accusation “Trump Russia Possible Collusion”, despite the fact that it was Hillary Clinton and her crony friends at the FBI who colluded with Russians to frame Trump, proved in court.

    We see accusations “Trump Ukraine quid pro quo”, despite the fact that it was Joe Biden who did it, proved by the Hunter Laptop from Hell.

    We see accusations “Trump Documents Mar A Lago Bad”, despite the fact that the four Presidents before him had documents, in sock drawers (look up ‘Socks Case’), abandoned furniture stores, and Bill Clinton even lost the nuclear codes. Trump’s home has 24/7 Secret Service protection, but we’re supposed to associate the smear of document mishandling away from the Regime presidents and to Trump.

    We see accusation after accusation, and the people ARE SICK AND TIRED OF IT.

    That’s why the world is moving away from the con, and why they are now being smeared with labels like ‘Nationalist’, as a cheap hollow attempt to associate them with past evil dictators of the 20th century.

    It’s smears all the way down for the sick and evil Regime.

    I don’t know what’s more tragic, the continued CULT DEVOTION by the remaining dwindling dying ‘Regime’ ideology of smears and accusations narrative as ever going to succeed in making people change their increasingly informed minds so as to be pulled back into the legacy media cesspool who have proved themselves to be the world’s largest source of disinformation ever in human history, or, the belief that more smears and accusations will convince anyone that those smears are anything other than demonstrations of either being wrong, or consciously knowing to be wrong and yet refuse to admit or engage the known truths, or smear the truths as lies while pushing lies as truths.

    Bibi got re-elected, I for one am happy he was re-elected because that’s who the people of Israel voted for. Anti-semites on the other hand would prefer to have who was not elected by the Israeli people, other anti-Semites have no issues smearing millions of Jews they have never met or even know the names of as guilty of what the accuser is guilty of, having a cult mindset.

  13. Gravatar of Daniel Daniel
    3. November 2022 at 11:39


    Oh no! America’s oldest newspaper, the NYPost, yes the very same source that Twitter and Facebook censored just before the 2020 election to prevent the Hunter laptop story from becoming known, while the corrupt media dishonestly called it ‘Russian Disinformation’ before admitting it was truth YEARS later (and which the FBI has since admitted was itself enough to sway the election to Biden, that’s why they ‘called’ up Twitter and Facebook and told them to censor it in the first place), has just written an article exactly in line with what I wrote here and was hilariously and pathetically called a ‘conspiracy nut’ by Professor Sumner merely for REFERENCING it!

    I know who the actual ‘conspiracy nut’ is, and it isn’t me, LOL.

  14. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    3. November 2022 at 12:02

    Thanks Charlie.

    Daniel, You said:

    “was hilariously and pathetically called a ‘conspiracy nut’ by Professor Sumner merely for REFERENCING it!”

    You should apologize for lying about what I wrote, otherwise I might ban you.

  15. Gravatar of Daniel Daniel
    3. November 2022 at 13:19

    Professor Sumner wrote:

    “You should apologize for lying about what I wrote”

    I’m not lying. You called me a ‘conspiracy nut’ right here in the last blog post (did you forget already?):


    You should apologize to me for smearing me as a ‘conspiracy nut’, and you should also apologize to me for smearing me as a ‘liar’.

  16. Gravatar of veritas veritas
    3. November 2022 at 16:17

    Sumner, Daniel, et al:

    I see talk of ‘cults’ on this blog.

    Everything makes a lot more sense when you realize the (remaining) Democrats (including 99% of the Fed), who are clearly now under the control of psycho communists, interpret and define disagreement as “disinformation” or “conspiracy theories” or “trolling” or whatever other slanderous term.

    Why? Because at an epistemological root level they’re Gnostics. They wrongly believe they have absolute knowledge. Therefore, if you disagree, you must not and are therefore providing “disinformation” or “conspiracy theories”.

    The communists are going insane because they lost control of the narrative. Tech entrenched on their controls. They couldn’t control THE DIGITAL BATTLEFIELD quick enough.

    Exhibit #518,355,375:


    Remember: to Communists, democracy only exists under Communism, or ‘left wing political control’.

    Why a Great **Reset** of the world’s economies? you ask.
    Why now? you ask.
    Why so much authoritarian control all of a sudden? you ask.
    They broke it all, defrauded 99.9% of the world, and are trying to save their own evil asses, that’s why:

  17. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    3. November 2022 at 17:00

    Daniel, That was in response to this comment:


    If had nothing to do with Biden. Now apologize for lying, or else I’ll ban you.

  18. Gravatar of Rodrigo Rodrigo
    3. November 2022 at 18:19


    If Powell embraces long and variable leads I would guess he would have picked up gradualism is/has been the wrong course of action don’t you think?

    You have said in the past generating inflation was easy, just promise to keep rates low until you see longer term rates rise. Should he not have done the exact oposite in this scenario? I guess he king of did today but we could have avoided a lot of pain in markets. As doing it earlier could have prevented rates from going this high and destroying the equity and bond market. Do you anticipate will be stuck in a high rate environment for longer than people think? Or will Powell stick to his guns and take no prisoners?

  19. Gravatar of Doug M Doug M
    3. November 2022 at 22:13

    When the Central bank has legitimacy. They have effectively communicated to the market how they will react to potential market developments. A “legitimate” ultimately doesn’t have to work as hard as the more shifty variety. The “bond market vigilantes” will do their work for them. At the first sign of inflationary pressure, the bond market will drive up rates before the Fed does. When the bond market works for the Fed, the lags diminish toward zero.

    The current Fed doesn’t have much legitimacy. They suggested they had an inflation-targeting regiem, and then didn’t follow their announced policy. Until the inflation rate gets below the Fed funds rate, there is no reason to believe that the current Fed is serious.

  20. Gravatar of Sara Sara
    3. November 2022 at 22:42

    It seems to me that all these problems can be solved with a fixed supply of digital currency. NGDP targeting is almost certainly better, but it’s just a plug to fix a hole. It’s like trying to stop water by placing a patch over it. It will work for a short time, then another hole will emerge. Why not end the Fed. Why not build another wall without leaks?

    And it doesn’t have to be BTC. It just has to be a fixed supply of anything, outside the control of apparatchiks; digital currency has everything you want in a medium of exhange.

    1. Fixed supply that forces governments to operate within a budget.
    2. Easy transfer between buyer and seller
    3. Secure.
    4. Liquid.
    5. scalable.
    6. Immutable

    So what is the problem? Why the hesitancy? Is it because bankers and the Fed will lose their power? Is it because they won’t have “control” over market fluctuations.

    I’m sure the market will choose winners or losers. If BTC is better than ETC, the market will move to BTC. No regulation necessary.

  21. Gravatar of Ricardo Ricardo
    3. November 2022 at 23:11

    Veritas said: “Everything makes a lot more sense when you realize the (remaining) Democrats (including 99% of the Fed), who are clearly now under the control of psycho communists, interpret and define disagreement as “disinformation” or “conspiracy theories” or “trolling” or whatever other slanderous term.”

    There is nothing communist about the democrat party. The elite in the democrat party are just totalitarians in the same mold as the CCP, which is to say that they desire more than anything a one party, unitarian, utilitarian, state with capitalism as their mode of production. Sumner talks about cults. I mean, the real cult is the state as a religion, the state as the solution to all problems.

    But to get to their magnifence on party utopia, they must destroy the republic. To destroy the republic, you must destroy the constitution and the lockean, kantian values upon which the constitution was predicated.

    That means attacking speech, removing weapons from the hands of citizens so they cannot defend themselves, and creating an external enemy to unite people against these ethics. The best way to do that is through something like CRT, where you can place people into groups, and try to build a majority. It’s not really any different than hitler. Hitler tried to get people to believe that jews were bad in the same way that CTR tries to indoctrinate youth that the bad guys are whites, asians, merit, wealth, logic, or anything that might create a barrier between themselves and the goal: perfect equality for the naive academcis and the totalitarianism for the power hungry elite democrats.

    In such a world you might create the 1619 project, which is a revision of history to propagate untruth. You might attack all religion as “cults” to form an athiest society in which the state itself becomes a religion. You might creates list of speech to control what can be said. You might centralize banking to control transactions, substience, etc.

    You might attack everyone who disagrees, threaten thier licenses, and label them conspiracy theorists. You might say things like the republican party is anti-democratic, racist, and everyone who belongs to the party is hitler, in order to scare the population into voting for you.

    If you can lower the salaries by mass immigration, that’s even better, because it creates more social strife.

    The end result — they hope — is that good people will quit trying. That the good people will submit to Nietches “herd” and that the creators, the innovators, the people of action will be swept up and subjugated.

    That would be the playbook for destroying a country without using an army.

  22. Gravatar of Daniel Daniel
    4. November 2022 at 03:38

    Professor Sumner, you said:

    “Daniel, that was in response to this comment”

    Where did you CITE that comment to which you smeared me as a ‘conspiracy nut’? You just announced it without qualification after my posts, so the only honest assessment would be to the entirety of what I wrote.

    I am not going to apologize for lying because I wasn’t lying, at most, what happened is that you made a mistake in not citing which specific part deserved that low brow smear, because I had to assume it meant everything I wrote due to no qualification, and I made a mistake in perceiving which part or parts.

    How about this, I will apologize for making a mistake (not lying), if you apologize for smearing me as a ‘conspiracy nut’.

    Ricardo, you said:

    “There is nothing communist about the democrat party. The elite in the democrat party are just totalitarians in the same mold as the CCP”

    Ricardo, the second ‘C’ in CCP stands for Communist.

  23. Gravatar of veritas veritas
    4. November 2022 at 05:45


    I will politely disagree that the ‘elite’ powers behind the Democrat Party are not communists.

    Are you keeping up to date with the political persecution of Gregg Phillips and Catherine Engelbrecht of True The Vote?

    After merely speaking at an event in Arizona in August that elections systems company ‘Konnech’ put the PII (personal identification information) of 1.8 million poll workers on CCP server in China (illegal AND breach of contract), after having been provided that information by confidential informants within the FBI, Konnech sued them for ‘defamation’.

    Then, the CEO of Konnech Eugene Yu was arrested and indicted in California for doing exactly what Phillips and Engelbrecht merely said happened.

    You would think that in a free country and no communism that this would instantly end the whole trial wouldn’t you?

    Think again.

    At trial, they asked the judge to allow statements of a California DA who would merely testify that yes Eugene Yu was indeed arrested and indicted for doing what Phillips and Engelbrecht merely SAID AT A PRIVATE EVENT what happened.

    The judge, with gasps from the court attendees, DENIED that testimony and claimed it was ‘irrelevant’ to Konnech’s lawsuit of defamation.

    Let that sink in.

    It gets worse.

    The judge demanded that Phillips and Engelbrecht DOXX the identity of the confidential FBI informant who told them that PII data on 1.8 million US Poll workers was on the CCP database.

    That is an ILLEGAL request. And, not only illegal, it would absolutely put that informant’s life at risk.

    So, Phillips and Engelbrecht did the right thing and refused to disclose that informant’s identity.

    Guess what happened next?


    Think about this. The whole lawsuit from Konnech of ‘defamation’ has been totally debunked by the arrest and indictment of Eugene Yu.

    But the judge is using this lawsuit from Konnech to PERSECUTE Phillips and Engelbrecht for not disclosing who at the FBI told them what the world already now knows.

    That is how communist countries operate, not Republics.

    NO jury convicted Greg Philips. NO jury convicted Catherine Engelbrecht. But they’re locked in prison. Why? Because Konnech and the judge demand to know how Konnech got caught.

    Seems like a political imprisonment, pure and simple.

    How is it people can be sued for defamation of public figures? Are government contractors not public figures? If there is an ongoing trial to evaluate the merits, how is it that a trial over defamation can proceed?

    I’m just not gullible enough to believe that this isn’t political imprisonment to prevent them from being effective at preventing another stolen election.

    This trial is revealing that there IS IN FACT communist infiltration of America.

    And ignoramuses still following the corrupt communist controlled media are fixated on attacking the political ‘opponents’ of the communists!

    So yes Ricardo, the power behind the Democrats and Republicans In Name Only is in fact communism. Communism was NEVER EVER about the ‘after the revolution’ utopia ‘visions’. It was ALWAYS about how to gain power and money IN THIS WORLD by exploiting the world through deception and word definition control, while projecting their own evil onto anyone who stands in their way as ‘against history’ or ‘fascist’, or ‘nazi’.

    Two people who MERELY TALKED about an actual real world occurrence about infiltration of our elections, were locked in cages because they won’t illegally reveal who at the FBI told them what we all now know is truth, all to benefit and protect and help a CCP ‘front’ corporation operating on US soil.

    If that’s not communism, nothing is.

  24. Gravatar of Ricardo Ricardo
    4. November 2022 at 06:01

    —“Ricardo, the second ‘C’ in CCP stands for Communist.”

    Yes, of course.
    But it’s not a communist country.
    It employs capitalism as its mode of production.

    You can call yourself anything, it doesn’t make it true.

  25. Gravatar of Daniel Daniel
    4. November 2022 at 07:50


    “You can call yourself anything, it doesn’t make it true.”

    Well said. Now please teach the ‘new’ generation of leftists that:


    BTW, China is communist because communism DOMINATES. No country is 100% capitalist or communist.

    Central banks are exploiting every country, so every country is dominated financially by communism.

    Gee, what could ever be causing financial dislocations? I know, let’s do what Stalin did and blame capitalism.

  26. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    4. November 2022 at 08:48

    Rodrigo, You said:

    “You have said in the past generating inflation was easy, just promise to keep rates low until you see longer term rates rise.”

    No, that didn’t work in Japan, and it’s not my view. I think creating inflation is easy, but that’s not the way to do it.

    Doug, Yes, they’ve lost credibility.

  27. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    4. November 2022 at 08:49

    Daniel, You said:

    “How about this, I will apologize for making a mistake (not lying), if you apologize for smearing me as a ‘conspiracy nut’.”

    But you are a conspiracy nut.

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