Attractive destinations for the educated
The old TV sitcom Cheers began with a nostalgic song about a time and place “where everyone knows your name”.
Welcome to Dubai:
Mr Williams contrasts “the dreaded 90-minute queue at a US airport to deal with an immigration officer who rarely seems pleased you’ve come to visit” with the UAE’s high-tech system. Arriving in Dubai, “My passport stays in my pocket, the camera recognises me, the screen says, ‘Hello Simon J. Williams’ and the gate opens.” He feels both more welcome and more secure.
Heartwarming? 1984? Or both?
The preceding quote is from an excellent article in The Economist, which looks at where people would move if the world had completely open borders for college grads. The three winners are:
1. In gross terms, the USA.
2. In net terms, Canada.
3. In percentage of population terms, New Zealand.
If you look at the nine countries where the graduate population would at least double, seven are near the top of the Heritage Foundation’s Economic Freedom rankings (in the top 16 out of 184 countries), and the other two have a pleasant lifestyle and a good location (Spain and Portugal.)
Here is the top of the Heritage economic freedom ranking:
No USA? 🙁
In gross terms, the US remains the most desired destination, but Canada leads the world in net terms (black dots), by an impressive margin (with Australia #2):
The morons in Washington DC don’t understand this yet, but in the 21st century the battle for global supremacy will depend far more on a country’s ability to attract global talent than on its “industrial policies”:
The smartest people are highly mobile. Only 3.6% of the world’s population are migrants. But of the 1,000 people with the highest scores in the entrance exam for India’s elite institutes of technology, 36% migrate after graduation. Among the top 100, 62% do. Among the top 20% of ai researchers in the world, 42% work abroad, according to MacroPolo, a think-tank in Chicago.
The US remains a very attractive destination, but also puts up much more formidable barriers than many other destinations:
Yet when he wanted permanent residence, he faced a snag. America mandates that no country may receive more than 7% of green cards in a given year. This is tricky for applicants from populous countries, such as the Indian-born Mr Das. A typical Indian applicant can expect to wait 134 years for approval, estimates the Cato Institute, a think-tank.
The US and China are both their own worst enemy. The winner will be country that puts the fewest bullets into its own foot.
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16. August 2024 at 19:03
I have enjoyed living in the US, Sweden (2 years), Belgium (1 year), Canada (1 month), South Africa (~2 months) and Chile (~6 years).
I enjoyed my experience in all of them, and they all have much to recommend. I am very surprised not to see Chile on the list with a positive potential. I haven’t been to Chile since I left in 2018, and I know there was some instability, but it has wonderful environments, decent weather, nice people, decent healthcare and was stable and well-run.
I have been interested in living in Switzerland and New Zealand, and many people have recommended Spain and Portugal to me.
The best approach for someone from India might be to stay in the US for 20 years and have your child get you a green card through family preference.
16. August 2024 at 19:52
The potential outflow of US grass is huge.
16. August 2024 at 20:05
I think these figures should be taken with a grain of salt. I’m guessing the outflow from NZ is low because it’s very easy for New Zealanders to move to Australia, and while Australia is not the US or Canada, it still has five times the population of NZ for those who want greater opportunities. I would similarly guess it is fairly easy for an American native English-speaking graduate to migrate to Canada (or Australia), so where are these American grads planning to go that they can’t go to now? Do they even speak the language? I’m also suspicious as to how many young Americans could survive outside the US when they don’t have access to the familiarities of home. While I personally think the Paris Olympics organisers were insane to not install air conditioning in the Olympic village, the fact is that most people in Europe do not have a/c (a/c penetration in 2022 was apparently 90% in the US and 19% in Europe). Okay, it usually doesn’t get as hot (or as cold), but there are times when it does and they can be extremely unpleasant. I take more seriously the outflow numbers from first-world countries like Canada, Australia, Britain and those in Europe, because I’m guessing they mostly want to move to the US (or somewhere in Europe in Britain’s case).
16. August 2024 at 21:44
Jonathan, I enjoyed a recent trip to Chile, but I suspect that many Americans and Europeans would have a lot of trouble living in Chile.
Rajat, Yes, I also wondered how serious some of those poll results were. Nonetheless, the Canadian figure seemed pretty impressive.
17. August 2024 at 00:03
Attracting productive high IQ immigrants is probably a good idea.
Still, I read that half of STEM grads have to work outside of STEM fields.
You might want to build the housing first.Then bring in the immigrants
17. August 2024 at 01:30
Australia still makes it far too hard for foreigners on skilled visas to get permanent residence, which means that they put off having kids here or bringing their parents over, and are likely to go home. All the foreigners I have worked with would be great additions to Australia.
17. August 2024 at 09:31
There cannot be “supremacy” when the world is almost fully decentralized. And one should not be seeking “supremacy” at all. Those are the words of a tyrant.
We should value free markets, which we don’t have. And limited government, which we also don’t have.
The future is decentralized. The New York Stock Exchange will not exist. It will be replaced with a decentralized blockchain, as will everything else. There will be large liquidity pools, run by smart contracts, and DAO’s where companies tokenize upon layer 2 blockchains. Each token will simply be a stock.
When Kamala says “My administration will take your patents,” it’s like a free promotion for our blockchain. More companies look to use immutable technology, where busybodies cannot devalue currency, limit product choices and steal their property. We can argue over how long patents should be, and whether they are currently two long, but when the state says they will “steal it”, “take it”, that’s the voice of a tyrant.
There are two choices in front of you now:
1. You can choose to regulate layer 1 blockchains into oblivion, stifling layer 2 development, then we will have some sort of unilateral, bilateral supremacy, world war III, more devaluation, full-on communism, and more thugs like Kamala, This is the current administrations approach, where they use the SEC as a weapon to carefully protect banks, brokerages, big tech, and other centralized actors from competition.
2. You can choose to let the free market roar, get the SEC off our back, and watch the total and complete destruction of every fortune 500 company within 20 years (creating more value and better standard of living along the away).
Nobody will have centralized control over the blockchain. There will be no “supremacy”.
17. August 2024 at 16:15
@Rajat
My guess is that the Americans would want to move to developed countries in Europe and Asia. Some possibly to Australia. Basically other developed countries outside of North America where visas are not necessarily easy to get unless you have specific skills. And it isn’t even necessarily easy for Americans to get Canadian visas either. Also, remember that most college grads are teachers, accountants, nurses, lawyers, etc., which frequently are careers that don’t travel well due to licensing requirements, among other things.
18. August 2024 at 04:57
One Billion Americans.
I would like to see the SSA run three scenarios. One with the MAGA proposed deportation. Second with no deportation and no immigration. Third with 4 million legal immigrants per year, all at 22 years of age.
18. August 2024 at 06:17
Agree with all of this. I would additionally add that it matters whether those smart, talented people have children or not. Many libertarians are resistant to acknowledging that it matters.
18. August 2024 at 06:44
One billion Americans.. that’s how you retain dominance in the next era. Nothing else is even close.
18. August 2024 at 06:45
I wonder how much of the American “outflow” figure is due to political posturing. Similar to the “if candidate X wins, I’ll move abroad” mumbo jumbo you get every 4 years. American passport allows you to pretty much live wherever you want, so all those Americans that want to live abroad could quite easily. Revealed preferences and all that.
18. August 2024 at 06:49
@bill – immigrants don’t come from “immigrantland” – the type and quality of immigrants matters quite a bit. European countries have had a lot of challenges due from having a low quality immigrant pool. What makes me most bearish is that I think there’s a sliver of Democratic leadership that understands that quality matters, but there’s a much louder contingent that is blank slatist to the degree that would make 1960’s psychologists blush. If you recall, Pelosi called merit “condescending”.
18. August 2024 at 07:51
I think you should expand the Heritage freedom rating to include civil and personal freedoms as is done with the CATO index. Singapore may lead in the economic freedom ratings but its middle of the pack on those other freedoms. I think it may correlate a bit better, especially for people from the US.
https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/2023-12/human-freedom-index-2023-full-revised.pdf
Steve
18. August 2024 at 07:56
sd0000, I agree on the revealed preference point.
18. August 2024 at 08:14
@sd
Would a US passport get you a work visa to Singapore or Australia? Or Switzerland? Some of it might be posturing, but the countries that have comparable or higher household incomes than the US, and in which English is the language of commerce tend to be difficult to get visas for even for Americans. And anecdotally, the folks I know who are living abroad or have lived abroad have been software/tech people and a couple of folks with PhD.s in the sciences. Now you could argue that the fact that more US citizens don’t pursue degrees in engineering and sciences reveals that US folks don’t value the ability to move abroad, but the study is about open boarders for all college grads, not just those in the sciences and engineering. But I suspect that it is more than just politics. How many US teachers would move to Singapore if they could get a job teaching there, and were offered a path to citizenship (and hence homeownership)? How many other people in relatively poorly paid professions would move, because their relative status in other developed countries would be substantially higher than in the US, and living someplace where housing in a safe, walkable neighborhood with decent public schools and mass transit is affordable in other countries while in the US only people with top 5% or higher incomes can afford that? A lot of it is politics, sure, but a lot of Americans do move abroad when they retire and don’t need to make a living.
18. August 2024 at 12:04
Scott: chances are good that it’s not “talent” that is flowing to the western Commieocracies of Australia and Canada:) Some ground truthing on your part would probably be enlightening.
I don’t know if you recall but several years back there was some sort of disturbance in Lebanon and there were thousands of “Canadians” living there expecting a lift out courtesy Canadian government. That’s who “emmigrates” to Canada. Get the passport, go back to Third World Dump, “get out of jail” card in wallet.
Beyond that literally *no one* who wants to work hard and achieve things would put Canada (or Australia or NZ) on their top-200-countries list. If you want a “clock in – clock out” country with large social benefits, Canada, Australia and NZ are pretty high on the destination list. No need to worry about productivity, these governments just squeeze US Pharma for free pills to keep health care costs down, while they contribute far less than zero to health care innovation.
In other news, I’m sure looking forward to price controls!:) I was honestly worried about your Trump Victory prediction but thankfully Kabama Obiden Chief of the Oblivious Democrat Moron Committee stepped up to saved the day for Trump! Ha ha ha! JHC, Scott!!! I just can’t even get over it. Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory! My god. We live in the stupidest times ever. Holy quackery. Poor Americans.
Remember, you don’t have to tell anyone. Just save democracy and vote Trump.
19. August 2024 at 09:03
Kangaroo, You come across as a guy who thinks he is smart, but isn’t. Not a good look.
20. August 2024 at 10:32
Just a friendly reminder to all Americans that we can massively reduce the costs of healthcare anytime. Absolutely anytime, once we remove our restrictions for immigrant doctors, nurses, and technicians. The requirement that immigrant doctors must complete their entire residency all over again, regardless of their experience, is particularly insane.
20. August 2024 at 18:51
Bob, That is correct, and 1000 other reforms would help even more.