About that Italian study
My recent post on the Italian study of early Covid spread was criticized for highlighting the interpretation of the Daily Mail, a disreputable paper.
Here’s Business Insider:
The new coronavirus was circulating in Italy since September 2019, a study by the National Cancer Institute (INT) of the Italian city of Milan shows, signaling that COVID-19 might have spread beyond China earlier than previously thought.
Actually, the study doesn’t show that Covid “spread beyond China”; it provides evidence that Covid existed outside of China well before the first known case in China. Word choice matters.
Now the media (and China’s government) is waking up to the startling implications of this study, if true:
If those findings are correct, scientists said it could change the history of the origin of pandemic, raising questions about when and where the virus first emerged.
The novel coronavirus was first identified in the central Chinese city of Wuhan in December. Italy’s first COVID-19 patient was detected on Feb. 21 in a small town near Milan, in the northern region of Lombardy.
The Chinese government said on Tuesday it believed the study showed that tracing the origin of the virus was an ongoing process that may involve many countries.
I can see why the Chinese government would wish to suggest that no one knows where the virus came from. My own view is that it doesn’t much matter where it started, but many Westerners blame China for the pandemic, mostly because the first known cases occurred there.
The Italian researchers seem reluctant to conclude that the pandemic began in Italy, instead they point the finger at China:
But the Italian researchers said that’s not necessarily their conclusion.
“These findings simply document that the epidemic in China was not detected in time,” Giovanni Apolone, scientific director of National Cancer Institute (INT) and a co-author of the study, told a news conference in Milan.
“These finding simply document”? Really? This study does not provide any evidence for the virus being in China last September, it merely shows that it was in Italy at that time.
In my earlier post, I expressed doubt as to whether the Italian claims were true. I still believe that the virus originated in China. Many scientists now seem to be skeptical of the study:
The study has also sparked doubts among some Western scientists who called for further tests.
Much of the scepticism was focused on the so-called specificity of the antibody tests, that, if not perfect, might reveal the presence of antibodies to other diseases.
PS. And can we please count the votes? Georgia’s already counted their votes twice. What is the problem?
Tags:
19. November 2020 at 18:17
Haven’t there been genetic studies showing that the virus is very similar to bat coronaviruses circulating in Southwest China and Southeast Asia? Are there similar coronaviruses in the bats in Italy?
19. November 2020 at 18:42
C-19 started in pasta!
Really, this is sad.
Australia has called for an independent investigation into the true origins of the Wuhan virus, drawing the wrath of Beijing, which has cut off $40 billion in annual imports from Australia.
The WaPo did a volte face (as soon as Biden was elected) and now they want to know where C19 came from, you know, possibly from those labs manipulating coronaviruses in Wuhan?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/the-coronaviruss-origins-are-still-a-mystery-we-need-a-full-investigation/2020/11/13/cbf4390e-2450-11eb-8672-c281c7a2c96e_story.html
Seems like a reasonable inquiry. After all, if a lab release can happen once it can happen again, perhaps triggering a second pandemic.
If you take notice, these pandemics are very expensive.
A pandemic here, a pandemic there, and pretty soon you are talking about real money (apologies to Everett Dirksen).
BTW, Biden’s probable pick for Secretary of War, Michele Flournoy, proposes the US needs a stronger military hardline against Beijing. Well, and everywhere else in the world too.
Good luck, everybody.
19. November 2020 at 18:44
Yeah it’s hard not to be dismissive of the idea that COVID was in Italy in September. We’ve seen over the last couple months with the second wave in the US how contagious this thing is. If it was around last September it would’ve been discovered in Italy wayyy sooner
19. November 2020 at 19:00
https://www.reuters.com/article/instant-article/idUSKBN28006C
This is an interesting topic for Sumner to cover. Trumpsters want to yank money (a few hundred billion) back from the Fed, the Fed wants to keep it.
Powell is screaming for more fiscal stimulus, and I assume he represents the Fed in this regard.
What is the present shape of the fiscal-monetary pretzel?
19. November 2020 at 20:23
Except that SARS-Cov-2 has 80% genetic similarity to SARS and have highly similar viruses circulating amongst bat populations in China.
Early importation in to Italy could perhaps be explained by lots of back and forth travel between Italy and Wuhan? Another possibility, is that populations living near bats are constantly being infected with zoonotic viruses that don’t evolve into pandemic causing viruses.
19. November 2020 at 22:37
Lizard, You said:
“Haven’t there been genetic studies showing that the virus is very similar to bat coronaviruses circulating in Southwest China and Southeast Asia? Are there similar coronaviruses in the bats in Italy?”
So perhaps an Italian tourist picked up the illness in Thailand, while the Thai people have some sort of immunity.
Again, I think it began in China, but only because the first known cases were there. If they weren’t, then there is no reason to assume it began in China.
Ben, Perhaps it escaped from a lab in Italy. Or the US.
Garrett, I agree.
20. November 2020 at 00:44
Ben, Perhaps it escaped from a lab in Italy. Or the US.–Scott Sumner
In terms of believability, this is one of your weakest propositions.
And the virology labs manipulating bat coronaviruses in Italy are where? We know of three such labs in Wuhan, and that employees from those labs traveled to Yunnan Province to collect bat coronaviruses. Hmmm. I smell a bat.
However, in terms of a detective-spy novel, your suggestion that the CIA executed a cousin to a “false flag” operation, and released vials of C19 near the Wuhan labs, has merit. That’s a great story line.
It might even be termed a “conspiracy theory,” and, interestingly, one version of this conspiracy theory is accepted in…mainland China. In mainland China, people believe the US somehow generated C19.
Which goes to show, that a “conspiracy theory” is just an unofficial explanation of controversial events, and large organizations tend to lie when convenient (especially if they can control or influence the news).
Sometimes, the guys in tin-foil hats are crazy, and then other times they are in vanguard of more-accurate understanding of events.
20. November 2020 at 01:51
Scott,
“PS. And can we please count the votes? Georgia’s already counted their votes twice. What is the problem?”
To paraphrase Stalin, votes shall be counted until the desired result is found. [/sarcasm]
And I totally agree on the Italian study. If it really appeared in Italy before it appeared in China, it may well have originated in Italy and then spread to China. By the logic everyone employs on Wuhan as the origin. Factoid: The Spanish Flu originated in Kansas, USA. Or let’s be more precise, that’s where it was first diagnosed, which is really the only thing we know about diseases’ origins.
I don’t actually believe the above, but it is the logically most consistent explanation, if one goes by logic. It would also bury the whole chimeric virus baloney.
But I actually believe this is a spurious result. Not based on logic, but on experience and probability. If the study was based on antibodies, all the more so, since apparently lots of people test positive for Covid antibodies due to antibodies to other coronaviruses, e.g., the common cold.
20. November 2020 at 03:39
Scott,
And not even that. As I said, sadly, it does not provide any evidence in any direction. It is a worthless study. I read an article about it in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung yesterday, my opinion is shared.
An Italian virologist and an Italian immunologist were quoted, both pretty much said what I said: worthless study, no evidence for anything, they are laughing their heads off.
Of course, the director of the institute and another cancer researcher involved in the study make big statements about how great their study is.
They are cancer researchers, Scott, and they are arguing against the experts in the field, without any clue what they are doing. It is so absurd, how can they be so insolent. It’s brazen, shameful, disgusting.
20. November 2020 at 03:59
I second Christian List. It’s a worthless study, published in the in-house journal of the Cancer Institute, without formal peer review. Also, please see here https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/22/8461?fbclid=IwAR2HPbiVPrY-5PrZdA4FOC_a2I1TuPEmh2AmPLR8kT3dFlkYKvmwrCqFtvk
20. November 2020 at 06:35
@ Scott
China and Covid—-I don’t get it—-but they really seem to have mitigated it
A friend of mine has been the head of a western financial institution in Beijing for the last 12 years. He was born in China in the 60s, immigrated to Canada in the 70s and became an American citizen in the 90s. His family lives in LA and CT. He lives in Beijing. We had not spoken this year until yesterday as we are working on something.
Since I consider him 100% credible this is what he told me. Everything is completely open. Movies (they miss lack of new American movies), restaurants, stores, air travel, visits, —-it is all completely normal. There are a few exceptions. While masks are not required (!), peer pressure makes everyone wear them. They too have adapted to “work at home” although not required. Like here, people have found it preferable and companies are just as productive. He goes in everyday—he likes the human interaction.
He says Covid is not an issue—-he does not know how many get it etc., but it is so low he does not even think about it.
It is obvious why this is amazing. They are not doing anything! One thing they do that is strict is quarantine. When he visits the states, and returns, he is quarantined in a state hotel for 14 days. He literally would be arrested if he left his room. He sees no people at all. Food delivered to his door.
I choose to believe him——it would be absurd not to.
As I,said, I don’t get it. It’s not just Beijing but all the major cities—-and I assume elsewhere too but did not discuss.
Again, no restrictions and no problem. And no, he was not afraid he was being listened too—-as he was quite critical on a number of other issues.
Here is what I think. There was a study recently that says it is very possible that once one gets Covid or a vaccine and recovers——they MAY have immunity for many years. I guess that China may have been getting various coronaviruses maybe for centuries. —-we know we have seen several in last 20 years.
It seems obvious they are more immune than westerners for whatever reason—-which makes the Wuhan outbreak that much more mysterious.
20. November 2020 at 07:36
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-strips-us-fed-emergency-132252537.html
“The Trump Administration is to shut down the emergency lending powers of the US Federal Reserve, taking extraordinary action to block reserve funds for the incoming Biden Treasury and prevent a Democrat bail-out of state and local governments.”
Scott what’s your take on this? Does this prevent the fed from doing NGDPLT?
20. November 2020 at 08:08
Michael Rulle…
re: “They are not doing anything!”
Yes, once you have largely eradicated the virus within your own borders, and have good cultural buy-in for mask wearing, temp taking and other mitigation strategies, and established testing and tracing protocols, and established virus control at the borders, and have proximate national neighbors doing similarly well, you can go back to normal life.
20. November 2020 at 08:59
Yes, the virus is eradicated—that’s what I said—-Mask wearing does zero—-“other mitigation strategies”—what does that mean?Border controls—yes I said that—-“national neighbors doing well”–that is circular reasoning—-same issues.
What are the “established testing and tracing protocols”?
The have more physical immunity—mitigation strategies do not make a virus disappear—it just alters the timeline of when one contracts it—-
The point is —-they do nothing now—–where did the virus go? It does not just “disappear”.
20. November 2020 at 09:51
@ Michael Rulle
Without human host cells to help the virus replicate studies suggest the virus lasts:
8-14 minutes in airborne droplets (until they land)
4 hours on copper
24 hours on cardboard
72 hours on plastic or steel
Those times will vary due to ambient conditions, and I’m not sure if the final detected remnants are capable of causing an infection, but those numbers should make it quite clear that the virus can and will disappear under the right circumstances.
20. November 2020 at 10:16
Bartleby,
Thank you. A voice of reason.
OT:
“Best” Michael Rulle comment ever. I usually don’t read his texts but somehow my eye got stuck on this one sentence.
After China has organized one of the biggest (most likely the biggest) crackdowns against a virus in human history ever, Michael Rulle comes along and concludes: “They aren’t doing anything!”
😂
20. November 2020 at 10:26
Everyone, The issue is not the study, which is highly dubious as we all believe; it’s the reaction to the study.
Michael, I find it sad that you feel you need to rely on a friend to know what’s going on in China. The country is not that closed. I went there last year, and my wife was there last month. There are lots of Western reporters in China. It’s not North Korea—we know what’s going on there at the “macro” level .Certain areas in places like Xinjiang are off limits. But not Beijing.
The virus has been under control in China since the spring. I’ve said that all along, but the conspiracy nuts in this comment section keep accusing me of being a CCP mole.
XVO, You asked:
“Does this prevent the fed from doing NGDPLT?”
No, it does not.
20. November 2020 at 11:07
Scott—-Sad? Why sad? Who has ever written about this? You? The specific issue that is my surprise is there are currently zero restrictions—-except quarantine coming back into the country. None. That is not surpising? My answer is not what they have done—-but immunity—–you don’t think they have more immunity?
Christian List—I am glad to have amused you. They are not doing anything. That appears obvious. So they did a Huge “crackdown” which enables them to now do nothing?–what is a crackdown?
Can you tell me that a “crackdown” actually eliminates the virus like Scott H believes? 1.4 billion people and they some how kill the virus by letting it lie dormant until it just dies and disappears?
Tell me how they did it? Tracing?
Immunity and no counting is how they did it.
20. November 2020 at 14:24
Scott,
Exactly. The reaction should have been that this is a crap study. Unfortunately, this reaction did not occur in many (if not most) media outlets, no, on the contrary, some even pretend that the results are serious. One should have criticized that.
At the same time, CCP politicians immediately jumped on the bandwagon and distributed their propaganda, instead of CCP China finally conducting serious studies on how and where exactly in China the virus originated.
The relevant mutations must have happened in the regions around Wuhan, in other words very probably in China. One should have criticized this as well.
Instead, you again wanted to discuss this stretched thesis that the wrong (!) study results were not discussed in a way that would have been in favor of CCP China. That is kind of absurd, Scott, which is why no one here followed you down that road.
@Michael Rulle
Don’t get me wrong, Michael, I’ll give it a try, even though I know you’re a hopeless case and it won’t work. Let’s just say it’s for me to practice my English, to sort my thoughts and also for other readers who can understand.
It’s not really for you, okay? I have to tell myself that because if it was for you, it would be, as I said, a waste of time. So here’s the short version, let’s see at what point you and others get out:
Viruses are not “normal” living beings, basically they are just a cookbook, a codebook, they often have a special cover and penetrate other living beings, there they replicate themselves and their code. In other words, they absolutely need a host to survive, they do not survive without a host.
Covid-19 is a disease that seems to (mainly) affect humans and it is (basically) transmitted via air only. When a host becomes infected, their immune system kills the virus relatively quickly, which happens in 99.9% of cases or more – or the person dies. In other words, the virus needs new hosts all the time and quite fast in order to survive.
In other words: If you stop the (air) transmission between humans, then this virus is completely or almost completely eliminated in a few weeks.
New Zealand has done this. CCP China has also done it, with extreme measures: Especially travel bans, masks, masks, masks, masks, masks, lockdowns, and of course an extreme, fully digitized tracing system that monitors people close to completely.
Extreme measures, admittedly, especially the last measure, but this way the virus was/is almost eliminated in China. And you claim CCP China did and does nothing. You are nuts.
They totally owned this thing, Kurt Russell as R.J. MacReady would be envious and deeply impressed.
20. November 2020 at 19:51
A study that casts suspicion on current consensus origin. That posits that covid-19 was in circulation before the current patient 0.
So, why not follow the age old wisdom: follow the money trail/origin of the study/funding of the study/people who did the study and their beliefs/allegiances. Who benefits?
21. November 2020 at 02:51
> The point is —-they do nothing now—–where did the virus go? It does not just “disappear”.
Of course it will just “disappears”, provided you have suppressed community transmission and very strict border controls. The Corona virus survives a few weeks max inside any human, then either it’s eliminated by the immune system or the human is dead. The virus does not survive outside human or animal hosts.
So it is possible to eradicate it in a country if both border control and quarantine measures are sufficiently strict. After that, the main risk is reinfection via animal reservoirs.
21. November 2020 at 07:26
@Christian List
I did not realize you were such a complete jackass—-I truly despise wise asses—-
-I neither said nor implied “China never did anything”—-what I did say is Beijing now does not do anything. Did you really think “viruses need a host” needed to be said?
The entire world manages to fail at not providing hosts but you pretend you know why a country of 1.4 billion people—-where Covid started in a virus storm—-somehow through “culture” and practiced behavior managed to not have to do anything anymore to keep it permanently at bay. You keep mentioning their extreme actions. Yes. And NOW they need no actions?
All those East Asians happen to have the same cultural behaviors that they naturally perform to dodge the virus? In part they do—-But it is not known why death rates (not just case rates) are significantly lower in East Asia —-and several hypothesis are being studied—-and since you are an apparent genius you should know what they are.
Your arrogance and superficial certainty it irritating—-you cannot engage normally—-and also, this response is “not for you” either.
21. November 2020 at 08:21
Further for our resident genius———how does China “count”? Do you believe “85 year olds” with cancer are presumed to have died from Covid?
The answer is we have no idea. At their death rate, we would have had only 1000 deaths. Virtually completely open in major cities, almost zero deaths—-all because of “cultural behavior” ——of course—-what else could it be.
21. November 2020 at 09:14
Michael,
you are simply presenting the facts completely wrong, for ideological reasons or for intellectual reasons or both, I don’t know.
The fact is, of course, that they still have their surveillance system in full operation. They didn’t stop anything. Every Chinese person is monitored very accurately.
You seem to understand the host theory, or not, one never knows with you, but then what is your problem?
The number of hosts has been extremely minimized in China. Every little flare-up of the disease, every single (!) positive test is massively fought by CCP China. For example, one reads again and again that only one single positive test in CCP China leads to millions (!) of people being tested immediately, and whole cities are being shut down.
Your immunity theory doesn’t make much sense from my point of view, if so many people are supposed to have some kind of “natural immunity”, it doesn’t explain well why there was this massive outbreak in Wuhan in the first place, and why the CCP is still afraid of further outbreaks. They can see from the occurrence of the virus that it can happen again. They don’t have herd immunity.
There’s another huge problem. It is not clear whether a hidden background (partial) immunity would really be so helpful, because often this kind of immunity means that people continue to get infected but do not have (much) symptoms. This is acutally the case with Covid-19, but we see this all over the world, not only in China, it originates most likely from all the other human pathogenic corona viruses that already exist since decades and centuries. This partial immunity, however, actually hinders the eradication of the virus,because humans are still hosts and carriers, but they have little to no symptoms, so they can only be detected by testing.
This cycle can only be broken by a good vaccine, which has probably been developed in Germany and the US by now. One should also not forget that the Chinese have already vaccinated millions of people with at least four of their own vaccine candidates, I have confidence in the Chinese that these vaccinations are also (quite) effective. So yeah, that kind of “artifical vaccine immunity” might help them already.
21. November 2020 at 10:57
anon, You said:
“So, why not follow the age old wisdom: follow the money trail/origin of the study/funding of the study/people who did the study and their beliefs/allegiances. Who benefits?”
First time I’ve seen someone equate “age old wisdom” with conspiracy theories.
Michael, You said:
“All those East Asians happen to have the same cultural behaviors that they naturally perform to dodge the virus? In part they do”
It’s amusing to watch a commenter change his mind as he types.
22. November 2020 at 07:18
@ Christian List——you at least wrote a reasonable and good response—but you still had to toss in the snark—you could not help it.
But better than before. A correction—-I have an immunity hypothesis—not a theory——as many do—-and it is being studied——but there are other ideas being studied besides immunity unrelated to government action. Some related to historical evolution of viruses themselves specifically in Far East.
However, you have raised factual assertions regarding government actions which if true are clearly evidence of doing quite a lot. Have not heard about their vaccines before so that sounds good if true. No one has mentioned that to me before.
I have to admit, I find it difficult to believe that 1 positive test leads to “millions of tests”. But I have no reason to disbelieve you. If that happened here it would have every person in the country tested daily. I believe that is literally true —-at least by non-conditional linear arithmetic.
What do “tests” lead to? You do not say—-except that cities can be locked down. Since that is not what I understand is happening in Beijing—does that mean zero people are positive in Beijing? If one person in Beijing were found to be positive “millions” would be tested?
I agree with your comment re: partial immunity over centuries may do little or worse regarding “cases”. But my point has always been incremental deaths—-which you do not address——-but we are really going far afield for why I initially made a comment.
I expressed astonishment at what I was told about Beijing. What was not included was what you have said. But, given what you have written, and presumably believe, you should be astonished too. It was really a simple expression of surprise.
Nothing you have written, which I do find interesting, makes me less surprised. Vaccines in Beijing? That is surprising. Millions of tests after a positive is found even in Beijing? That is surprising. None of that was told to me——-it would have been if the person knew. Perhaps he knows less than exists—or more than he told me.
To paraphrase you “one never knows with you—-what is your problem?”. But—I don’t want to engage in further snark—let’s call a truce on snark—we are about even.
22. November 2020 at 07:47
1) Mr. List wrote: “For example, one reads again and again that only one single positive test in CCP China leads to millions (!) of people being tested immediately, and whole cities are being shut down.”
Like where? China had 13 cities under lockdown in January. Where have they locked down since?
2) Two days ago, Nature Communications published an article that stated: “there were no positive tests amongst 1,174 of close contacts of asymptomatic cases.” The way the US and the UK Have been mass testing asymptomatic people has been absurd and the WHO has said since spring the asymptomatic transmission of COvid-19 is “very rare.”
3) A recent article argues that Asia has had higher immunity against Covid-19 due to viruses that swept through there between 5,000 and 25,000 years ago.
22. November 2020 at 07:56
Mr. List: “This cycle can only be broken by a good vaccine”
False. Look at Sweden, Korea and Japan. It doesn’t look like many Americans will be vaccinated before herd immunity sets in. But by expanding testing asymptomatic patients with PCR tests set at ridiculously high cycles that capture tons of false positives and allowing the continuation of extremely lose definitions of a Covid-19 death, we can expect an illusion of the pandemic being much stronger than it actually will be next year.
22. November 2020 at 09:12
Todd, China locks down certain parts of cities when there is an outbreak, which happens only rarely in recent months.
You said:
“It doesn’t look like many Americans will be vaccinated before herd immunity sets in.”
False. Vaccines will be widely available by the spring. I recall when lots of you denialists claimed that Sweden had herd immunity last summer. How’d that prediction turn out?
How about Australia? Germany? Canada? New Zealand? Norway? Are they going to get herd immunity?
22. November 2020 at 11:11
Scott, do you really need to call people a denialist like a 13 year old who doesn’t have an argument? What have I denied? That masks offer good protection against Covid-19 despite study after study concluding that they don’t? OK.
Nobody said Sweden had reached full heard immunity this summer just as nobody thinks New York has full heard immunity. But in both places cases and deaths have been increasing at lower levels than in many countries and Swedes haven’t been wearing masks.
Sweden’s Covid deaths per capita is now tied for 17th in the world:
Belgium 1,300
Peru 1,000
Spain 900
Italy 800
UK 800
Brazil 800
Columbia 800
Argentina 800
Mexico 800
Chile 800
US 800
Bosnia & H. 750
Bolivia 750
France 750
Ecuador 750
Panama 700
Czechia 650
Armenia 650
Sweden 650 (no masks)
Netherlands 500
Vaccines may be widely available by spring but it will take months to get them to enough people.
22. November 2020 at 18:24
Todd,
what happend to your GDP predictions? All gone and forgotten?
And where are Norway and Finland on your list?
Is there a logical explanation by Tegnell for his crusade against masks? So far I only heard from him: masks spread panic, are often worn the wrong way, can provide a false sense of security, cost money, and oh yes, this is best: the disease is not transmitted by air.
Tegnell strikes me as a fanatic, a pathological liar who, like Trump, would rather walk over thousands of corpses than admit he was wrong.
Amusingly enough, their names both start with T, there is a third person that fits this description.
I read that Swedish nurses and doctors who insisted on wearing a mask at work have been reprimanded or even fired.
As I said, these are no longer just recommendations by Tegnell, this is a religious crusade in which heretics are burned at the stake. I assume, that if there were a God, his soul would burn in hell for all eternity.
22. November 2020 at 19:58
“Amusingly enough, their names both start with T, there is a third person that fits this description.”
Mr. List, have you considered psychiatric therapy? We want you to do well/
23. November 2020 at 13:36
Todd,
Your answer is just weak, I used this on you first. You are not even creative, one should at least presume that your miracle supplements provide some kind of imagined creativity.
And you can’t even answer one question reasonably, which is an answer in itself btw.
Who is the third person, does anyone feel addressed?