A final few links
1. Ross Douthat has a good piece in the NYT, pointing to the scandal of Joe Biden continuing to serve as president despite his physical and mental decline. But this specific sentence had me scratching my head:
And since things keep happening in the world — for instance, this week, the nation that we’ve been arming for a defensive war decided to invade Russia — it seems like America could stand to learn a bit more about how the White House has been working recently . . .
Decided to invade Russia? What the heck is that supposed to mean? Is he implying that the war is no longer “defensive”?
2. If China is so bad, why do we wish to copy their model? Here’s Foreign Affairs:
By offering large incentives to companies that invest in critical sectors in the United States, Washington could replicate some of the same problems that are plaguing China’s economy: a reliance on debt-fueled investment, unproductive resource allocation, and, potentially, a speculative bubble in tech-company stocks that could destabilize the market if it suddenly burst. If the goal is to outcompete Beijing, Washington should concentrate on what the American system is already better at: innovation, market disruption, and the intensive use of private capital, with investors choosing the most promising areas to support and taking the risks along with the rewards. By fixating on strategies to limit China’s economic advantages, the United States risks neglecting its own strengths.
3. Federal drug policy? The emphasis should be on deregulation:
4. Steve Waldman tried to Google my name, and noticed the following:
I’m flattered.
5. Trump says he’ll cut energy and electricity prices by at least 50%, within 12 months. Harris says she’ll ban “price gouging”. Eh, what could go wrong?
6. Trump seems to be trying to lose. Why?
6. Donald Trump discusses . . . something:
Look, having nuclear — my uncle was a great professor and scientist and engineer, Dr. John Trump at MIT; good genes, very good genes, okay, very smart, the Wharton School of Finance, very good, very smart — you know, if you’re a conservative Republican, if I were a liberal, if, like, okay, if I ran as a liberal Democrat, they would say I’m one of the smartest people anywhere in the world — it’s true! — but when you’re a conservative Republican they try — oh, do they do a number — that’s why I always start off: Went to Wharton, was a good student, went there, went there, did this, built a fortune — you know I have to give my like credentials all the time, because we’re a little disadvantaged — but you look at the nuclear deal, the thing that really bothers me — it would have been so easy, and it’s not as important as these lives are (nuclear is powerful; my uncle explained that to me many, many years ago, the power and that was 35 years ago; he would explain the power of what’s going to happen and he was right — who would have thought?), but when you look at what’s going on with the four prisoners — now it used to be three, now it’s four — but when it was three and even now, I would have said it’s all in the messenger; fellas, and it is fellas because, you know, they don’t, they haven’t figured that the women are smarter right now than the men, so, you know, it’s gonna take them about another 150 years — but the Persians are great negotiators, the Iranians are great negotiators, so, and they, they just killed, they just killed us.
7. Interesting:
8. Luttig has come around to my view on Trump:
Retired federal appeals court Judge J. Michael Luttig, a prominent conservative legal scholar put on the bench by President George H.W. Bush, is endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump, whose candidacy he describes as an existential threat to American democracy.
It will be the first time Luttig, a veteran of two Republican administrations, has voted for a Democrat.
“In the presidential election of 2024 there is only one political party and one candidate for the presidency that can claim the mantle of defender and protector of America’s Democracy, the Constitution, and the Rule of Law,” Luttig wrote in a statement obtained exclusively by CNN. “As a result, I will unhesitatingly vote for the Democratic Party’s candidate for the Presidency of the United States, Vice President of the United States, Kamala Harris.”
Better late than never. Unfortunately, for every distinguished conservative intellectual moving away from Trump, there are 100 low information voters drawn to him by empty promises of no taxes on tips or Social Security.
9. Asian-Americans would seem to be a group that would be receptive to the GOP message. But Republicans just can’t stop being bigoted:
Wen Raiti, a Chinese American community leader in Jacksonville, Florida, has been a Republican for more than a decade. As a small business owner, she said, the party’s fiscal conservatism and small government ethos resonated with her.
But last May, when Gov. Ron DeSantis signed legislation banning Chinese citizens from buying property in Florida, Raiti changed her party affiliation and began campaigning for local and national Democratic candidates.
10. And JD Vance feels he needs to reassure his nutty right wing friend Charles Johnson that he only knows one Chinese-American:
In the messages, Vance pushed back on Johnson’s accusations that he was beholden to donors and other allies, including his law school mentor, Yale professor Amy Chua. When Johnson suggested that Vance was channeling Chinese and Israeli interests, Vance replied, “Chua doesn’t tell me anything.” He added: “I am pretty sure I don’t even know another Chinese american.” Chua declined to comment.
Imagine living in a world where knowing Chinese-Americans makes you suspect. Thank God my commenters would never behave that way.
11. A poverty stricken woman was recently arrested for shoplifting food to feed her children, or something like that:
A 35-year-old San Marcos woman accused of shoplifting $600 from Sephora at the Irvine Spectrum was found hiding inside the trunk of her Tesla after she attempted to flee from loss prevention, police said.
Her Tesla? Unfortunately, it’s very unlikely that California will “lock her up”.
12. I am currently reading Melville’s White-Jacket, and came across the following:
If there are any three things opposed to the genius of the American Constitution, they are these: irresponsibility in a judge, unlimited discretionary authority in an executive, and the union of an irresponsible judge and unlimited executive in one person.
I wonder what Melville would have thought of the recent Supreme Court ruling that the president is above the law. Or that presidents can set tariff rates wherever they chose.
PS. This will probably be my final post comprised of miscellaneous links. Within a few weeks I hope to wrap up TheMoneyIllusion and put you all out of your misery. Rising from the ashes will be a new and somewhat different blog, hopefully an improvement.
Substack!!!!
Tags:
21. August 2024 at 12:39
I will miss this blog.
21. August 2024 at 12:59
The excerpt from Trump hurt my brain. And my computer.
21. August 2024 at 13:17
Thank God. We’ve had enough of “TheMoneyIllusion”…ok, JK.
I’m sure all readers will miss it. Been following since 2009, or so. Best of luck on new project.
21. August 2024 at 13:46
I have this theory that comments here were often so good because the site made writing so difficult. I guess Substack will put that theory to the test.
21. August 2024 at 14:34
Sumner, I think Donald Trump is in no way a danger to the American electoral system. The man has zero will to power. It’s like having a potato in office.
21. August 2024 at 14:57
Didn’t realize you were ending MI; it will be missed. A lot of your cohorts made the switch to substack and in most cases it was ok but in others, definitely went down hill. Hopefully you keep up the same posts here there. That said, substack publicly walked back it’s commitment to free speech so I’d be wary there as a blogger, I’m surprised how many pro liberty people didn’t bail after that, guess commitment to freedom of speech is really just virtue signalling.
Raiti sounds like a traitor, no loss. He’s an American, not Chinese and the fact he puts China ahead of America suggests to me he should probably immigrate to where his loyalty lay. Also the fact his entire core is about identity politics means he’ll find a home in the anti-white party but he’ll soon figure out they don’t like men either; nor East Asians really.
21. August 2024 at 15:27
Peter, You said:
“Raiti sounds like a traitor, no loss.”
Not sure if you’re joking, or just a complete moron.
“Hopefully you keep up the same posts here there.”
LOL, that would be a disaster. The whole point in moving is to try to improve the quality from the low level of this blog.
21. August 2024 at 15:28
Kit, Maybe I’ll decide to ban the trolls. That would improve the quality of comments.
21. August 2024 at 16:57
Congrats on the blog upgrade, but theres no need to stop the link compilation posts. I am sure youve seen the other scott’s linx
21. August 2024 at 18:11
Looking forward to the new blog, Scott.
Though the beauty of the current format was always the simplicity of the interface, and your free wheeling attitude towards comments, even the worst of them.
21. August 2024 at 18:55
A and mbka, In my new blog, I plan to take very seriously the suggestions of my better commenters.
Yes, Scott Alexander is very good at links.
21. August 2024 at 19:04
I’m glad you’re making the change. The escape from the increasingly intrusive ads on this site alone is worth it for readers, and the interface is obivously much friendlier to blog authors.
21. August 2024 at 19:28
The posts you make here are yours, and will not need backups and disappear whenever Substack decides they aren’t making enough money. The centralization will not really help you
21. August 2024 at 19:31
As a regular reader on RSS since shortly after you started the blog I’ll be sad to see TMI go. You were a great help in understanding the madness of the Great Recession and I’ve enjoyed your commentary since.
Good luck with substack and be sure to post a link — and ideally keep the domain and set it up as a redirect to your substack.
21. August 2024 at 19:42
I love these link posts (and all the others)! This has been one of my absolute favorite blogs. But I trust you, and since you say the new blog will be even better, I look forward to it!
21. August 2024 at 19:48
Going to Substack sounds like a great idea – for one thing, it seems like more of a place for longer-form things (like the other Scott), which I’d love to read. (Whether Scott Sumner wants to write them is another issue).
And if Macro continues to be a topic, maybe more traction for the ideas?
21. August 2024 at 20:43
Omg. I am gonna have to like get a life. I learned more form this blog than anyone will ever know. Kinda sad. 🥲
21. August 2024 at 20:54
Mbka is so right btw. It’s your willingness to take on the commenters that this blog a gem.
Peace out.
21. August 2024 at 21:53
I hope the archives of the current blog will remain accessible
21. August 2024 at 22:20
This blog will remain in place, with all the posts and comments still showing.
I will certainly still allow negative comments. But some of the trolls are so ridiculous that it’s sort of a waste of time responding, even for fun. I only have so much time left.
I hope the visual quality is improved.
21. August 2024 at 22:24
Bob, The posts at Substack would also be mine. And they won’t “disappear”.
21. August 2024 at 23:59
@L, @Scott: I’m not sure if Substack enables RRS by default now (it didn’t used to, you had to enable it as the blogger) but if not, can you enable it on your new blog.
22. August 2024 at 00:33
For a second I was afraid you meant you were done with blogging… I’ll miss the schizophrenic commentators and the fast-loading website, but I second the request to ensure that RSS is enabled if it isn’t the default.
22. August 2024 at 06:16
Good luck you miserable old man.
22. August 2024 at 07:09
See you on Substack. I’d like to second mbka and say that I appreciate your willingness to jump down into the mosh pit with us, even the saras of the community. I just wish I had the ability to collapse comments sometimes so that the rants of sara and her cohort (or maybe just her aliases) didn’t take up so much screen real estate.
22. August 2024 at 08:21
I like this blog (and your posts on ecolog).
You clearly have some plan for the new blog. What keeps you from raiaing the quality of this blog that’s not keeping you at substack?
22. August 2024 at 08:28
Peter, I’ll look into that.
Matthias, There are many factors, some of which I’ll discuss later.
22. August 2024 at 08:58
3- I have seen a number of people push for faster approval of new drugs, but I have not seen any that seem realistic. They all seem to be written from the POV of economists or policy influencers. From the POV of a clinician I seldom read anything that makes much sense. If a drug comes to market sooner but we dont know much about it we just arent going to use it until we build up some literature and know enough to use it.
6- Trump has been talking in word salad for quite a while. You can sort of figure out what he is saying if you already know what he is talking about. An awful lot of rambling about how great he is. The Medal of Honor stuff was awful.
5- It still amazes me that so many people believe oil companies will willingly pump so much oil that the price of oil will drop by 50%.
2_ I want to agree with you but isn’t this basically what red states have done to attract businesses. They all offer tax incentives and often subsidies. Local citizens and state taxes pay for the improvements needed to support the new businesses and facilities. They also make sure their workers get paid less. It seems to be working for them.
Steve
22. August 2024 at 09:00
1. I don’t see a problem with Joe continuing to serve as a President, but that’s mostly because I can’t stand Kamala and I recognize that Presidents today are pretty close to what English Kings/Queens were a century ago. It probably also serves the Democrats as Kamala can be seen as an exciting new candidate vs. the current incumbent, where any bad news cycle could then be more directly attached to her name.
I do think it was unwise for Ukraine to invade Russian territory. Striking Russian logistics hubs, bases, missile launchers, airfields, etc. within Russian territory makes sense. But why would you pull some of your best forces away from the front in which you are slowly losing ground, put them into a strategically useless part of Russia that is also hard to resupply, with an almost certain eventual outcome of substantial losses & withdrawal?
3. Everything I’ve been hearing about pharma makes me want to increase regulation rather than decrease it.
6. He’s not trying to lose. He’s ingratiating himself with one of his most important constituents. Basically no one who likes Trump is going to be disturbed by this, he’s praising by hyperbolic contrast with an alternative, seems very on brand for him.
8. The irony is that mass democracy itself is actually one of America’s most serious institutional flaws. Look at your own comment: “Unfortunately, for every distinguished conservative intellectual moving away from Trump, there are 100 low information voters drawn to him by empty promises of no taxes on tips or Social Security.”
9. Weird. I wouldn’t call it racist though… anymore than restricting Soviet ownership would have been racist. I’d put this one down as another democracy-related blunder.
Congrats on the substack move!
22. August 2024 at 11:33
I thought I’d recommend a link – delicate topic area but amazing story:
https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/yales-integrity-project-is-spreading
22. August 2024 at 14:05
Steve, You said:
“I want to agree with you but isn’t this basically what red states have done to attract businesses.”
Not really. Red states have attracted business by being less socialist than blue states. Both red and blue states use various incentives, that’s not the key difference.
Justin, Racists never see themselves as racist, they always have excuses.
“Weird. I wouldn’t call it racist though… anymore than restricting Soviet ownership would have been racist.”
So Russia invades Ukraine in the biggest European land war since 1945, and we respond by going after the Chinese people? And you seriously think this has nothing to do with race? In 1942, we put ethnic Japanese but not Germans into concentration camps. Did that also have nothing to do with race?
anon/portly, Thanks. I don’t have strong views on that stuff, other than keep the government out of the issue.
22. August 2024 at 14:47
Justin, You said:
“I don’t see a problem with Joe continuing to serve as a President”
Same here. It would probably be slightly better if Harris took over, but she’s busy campaigning. It’s weird how people worry about 6 months of senile Joe when we are about to have 4 years of senile Donald.
22. August 2024 at 15:29
3. Yglesias also supports the IRA drug negotiations which have already lowered investment in new drug research
22. August 2024 at 21:20
Haven’t been here for a while as the site is clunky on a mobile and been focused on other things, eg being outside, gardening, natural history, walking in our wonderful UK mild climate.
Looking forward to Substack. It’ll be different but TANSTAAFL rules.
22. August 2024 at 21:36
What about your Econlog activity?
22. August 2024 at 22:05
Scott:
I dumped your cherry plot into a graphics program and measured off the peaks. The last time the date hit the upper band at April 20 was about 1840. Following that there is a minor late peak at ~1895 and another at ~1930, just before the precipitous decline in blossom dates occurs.
Just to set the stage.
Kyoto is 20m from the waterfront in Osaka and along with Osaka is part of “the 10th-largest urban area in the world with more than 19 million inhabitants.” (Wikipedia article on Osaka). Kyoto and probably the entire region underwent massive population growth and industrialization from 1880s onward (Japan is well known as the fastest-industrializing country in the world). This was surely accompanied by large-scale deforestation and concretization in the region with is surely ongoing to the present. Beyond that it’s surrounded by very steep high mountains, with 1000m peaks only a few miles from the center of the city, which almost surely trap heat in the urban area.
To suggest that the change in the cherry blossom peak during this period of massive population growth and urbanization is entirely or even mostly a function of world climate is…well…not credible. I can’t say what the proportions might be, but for such a claim to be credible, at the very least the effects of the urban development would have to be seriously studied and the relative effects of urbanization and climate determined – an extremely complex problem that ain’t likely to be solved by with an R model whipped over the weekend
So, you know, I don’t want to pop anyone’s confirmation bias balloon when it’s supported by such a lovely graphic evoking delicate pink flowers and lovely geisha girls, but if there’s anything any PhD in economics should know it’s this: shit in the real world is complicated.
But you’ll figure it out. Remember, you don’t have to tell anyone. Just save the country from the end of free speech, the dawn of price controls, racial quotas, men in women’s sports (how come no women are transitioning to compete in mens sports?), exploding housing costs, shortage of all kinds and a general end to prosperity.
You know who to vote for.
23. August 2024 at 04:13
Kangaroo, I had the same thought about the urban heat island effect being an important variable, not to mention that Japan is a single location vs. the whole world.
I do think climate change is well established but this by itself would be a weak piece of evidence.
23. August 2024 at 05:33
–“So Russia invades Ukraine in the biggest European land war since 1945, and we respond by going after the Chinese people? And you seriously think this has nothing to do with race?”–
I do Scott. Russia is aggressively sanctioned by the West, so I don’t think that they are getting off easy. More importantly, from a geopolitical perspective, China is a serious rival: it has the world’s largest economy (several times over when you look at just industry on a PPP basis), some great tech firms, and a much larger defense budget than Russia and China can produce weapons that seriously threaten US capabilities (e.g. Russia has built 32 Su-57 stealth fighters over the past 15 years, China can build about 100 J-20 stealth fighters in a year, China is working on its third aircraft carrier and the planned fourth is basically equivalent to a Nimitz/Ford, it is trying to field a B-21 style stealth bomber, etc).
I do think the restrictions are a bit silly (lol at the ‘communist’ label too btw, communist in name only), but China is clearly America’s only true rival. I actually appreciate many things about China and would never want to go to war with them, but I understand if you view world politics as a competition the Chinese are the other 800lb gorilla.
Speaking of the 40s, we can say that Russia is like Italy whereas China is an amalgamation of Germany and Japan. Say what you want about Russia, but it can’t enforce its will against Ukraine, let alone European NATO countries even without the help of the US. Conversely, I think the Chinese would likely succeed in defeating the US in a conventional war in the South China Sea.
–“In 1942, we put ethnic Japanese but not Germans into concentration camps. Did that also have nothing to do with race?”–
My instinct on that question is probably yes, but that was a different time.
America was 90% white then and 2nd+ generation Germans just seemed entirely like the vast majority of the country, whereas the country was <1% Asian and they stood out more visibly… I also suspect German Americans had longer roots in the country than the Japanese (though I'm not sure about that). Not to excuse any it, of course – incarcerating innocent people is always wrong – just trying to see it with a little more nuance.
23. August 2024 at 05:34
By probably yes, I mean yes it had something to do with race.
23. August 2024 at 06:42
Scott – thoughts on this?
https://x.com/Jandrade0112/status/1826990623972528392
23. August 2024 at 07:47
Love this blog, looking forward to the next chapter. Onward and upwards.
23. August 2024 at 07:53
James, Good to hear from you again.
Vaidas, Short run, no change at Econlog. In the very long run, who knows?
Kangaroo, Good point. But the previous stability is also interesting. For 1000 years, there was very little variation in the 20-year average.
The way to test your theory is to see if the peak date in Kyoto in recent years is similar to the peak in a rural area 30 miles away—say near Nara. It would be easy to test. I suspect there’s not much difference.
“men in women’s sports”
That’s right, this issue is far more important than coup attempts, 20% tariffs, expelling 10 million migrants, massive corruption, exploding the national debt, stabbing Ukraine in the back, NIMBY housing policies, banning abortion, fake meat and voluntary mask wearing, etc. Keep your focus on the shiny object being waved in front of your eyes.
Justin, You said:
“I do Scott. Russia is aggressively sanctioned by the West,”
The sanctions have so many holes they have little effect.
Looking at GDP is meaningless. Japan’s GDP is bigger than Russia’s but no one would say they are a rival. Russia has a far more powerful nuclear force than China, which is what matters, as China is not about to launch a land invasion over here. China will not attack the US, but the US might attack China (in response to a Taiwan war.)
Yes, Russia’s conventional forces have problems, but read some of the articles on China’s conventional forces—they have all kinds of problems. There is no evidence that China has a formidable army. In any case, Russia still may win in Ukraine if Trump stabs Ukraine in the back, as I expect.
Speaking of the 40s, we can say that Russia is like Italy”
This is nonsense. Russia invaded a European country of 40 million, and has its eyes set on other former Soviet Republics. That’s far more like Hitler’s Germany than it is like Italy. Stop focusing on GDP and focus on BEHAVIOR.
You want a more recent example of anti-Asian bias? How about the hysteria over Japan’s trade surplus in the 1980s, while a similar German surplus was ignored? Did German-Americans get stabbed in retaliation? Or hysteria over China’s trade surplus today, while a similar EU surplus is ignored?
sd0000, Interesting. What happened to the 30-year TIPS spread? Is it possible that 30 year TIPS became more popular due to increased inflation risk? I don’t know, I’ve never found a consistent pattern with long-term rates and policy surprises.
23. August 2024 at 09:39
What’s the name of the substack? When will it show up?
23. August 2024 at 13:51
Everyone, Somehow all the recent comments and my responses got lost. I have no idea why. But I did read them, and I responded.
Another reason to move to Substack.
23. August 2024 at 15:39
From the Dallas Fed-
Texas offered about two dozen programs to attract businesses from other states from 2010 to 2019. Key among them has been the Texas Enterprise Fund, one of the largest deal-closing funds in the nation. The fund provides cash grants to mostly large companies that choose Texas over another state and create at least 75 jobs in urban areas (25 jobs in rural areas) with mean wages above the county average.
The enterprise fund participated in 201 projects from its inception in 2004 through 2022 at a cost of $830 million. Notable among them, Samsung won $27 million to build a semiconductor plant in Taylor, 50 miles northeast of Austin, and create 1,800 jobs. Samsung has said the facility, announced in 2021, is scheduled to open at the end of this year, though reports have indicated mass production won’t begin until 2025.
Another widely used program provided tax incentives under Chapter 313 of the Texas Tax Code. It was allowed to expire in December 2022 and has been replaced with a scaled down version, Chapter 403.
Chapter 313 allowed school districts to provide property tax incentives by capping a new firm’s appraised property value for 10 years. In return, a business committed to create at least 25 jobs in a nonrural school district (10 in a rural district). The state makes up the foregone school tax revenue. A total of 598 awards worth $12.2 billion were made as of June 2022.
Still other property tax abatements offered by cities and counties under Chapter 312 of the Texas Tax Code don’t involve state funding but are used to attract new industries and retain existing ones.
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/swe/2024/swe2402
Steve
23. August 2024 at 15:50
Steve, I think you are missing the bigger picture. Biden is trying to make America more socialist. Texas does have lower taxes for business, but fundamentally it attracts business by being less socialist.
Other states have similar tax incentives to attract business.
“The enterprise fund participated in 201 projects from its inception in 2004 through 2022 at a cost of $830 million.”
That amount is utterly trivial compared to the sums Biden is throwing around, even if you adjust for Texas having only 10% of the US population.
23. August 2024 at 20:02
This might be too late a response, but like many others, I am personally sad to see the end of this particular blog, while knowing that the switch is probably a good thing for many reasons. In a way, I wish you had made the switch 3-4 years ago, charged for your posts and (cumulatively) made a bit (more) money from your posting than you will by switching now. Like others, and like I’ve commented before, I have learned so much from this oddball little blog that I feel you deserve greater financial reward than you would have had. Clowns in the financial markets get paid squillions by spouting framework-free nonsense, while you have taught so many so much.
Anyway, good luck and I will continue to follow you there. I do think that even a modest fee ($20 pa?) would help improve the average quality of comments by weeding out some of the less committed morons.
24. August 2024 at 07:51
Rajat, Yes, I probably should have moved years ago. Obviously the new blog won’t work if I don’t improve the quality over what it’s been recently over here. Time will tell.
I’m not particularly worried about trolls at Substack.
24. August 2024 at 09:57
Could you consider migrating your old blog posts to Substack, like Bryan Caplan did? It would be great to search your movie reviews all in one place without switching between the website and Substack. Thanks!
24. August 2024 at 10:03
galambo, Let me look into the options. Perhaps I could put all my old TMI posts into one giant one, and attach a link to it at the end of each new Substack movie dump? I will consider other suggestions as well.