Lots of Americans are bad people
This caught my eye:
An even sharper partisan dynamic exists when voters were asked whether the video gives them a more or less favorable impression of Trump. Among all voters, 61 percent say it makes them feel either somewhat or much less favorable toward Trump, while 28 percent say it doesn’t affect their view of Trump; 8 percent said it makes them feel more favorably toward Trump.
Eight percent of the adult population is about 20 million people. The figure may be higher if you assume that non-voters are even more degenerate (on average, excluding Bryan Caplan) than voters. I.e., what would the poll numbers be if they surveyed the 2 million American non-voters in prison! Or the far larger number that have been released from prison. I’m going with 25 million as an overall estimate—what do you think? (I’m not sure why the GOP is trying to prevent ex-cons from getting the right to vote.)
P.S. I would not go so far as to call those 20 million people “deplorables”, but they certainly are bad people.
PPS. I’m in the 28%. There is nothing “lower” than rock bottom, which is where I had already pegged him.
PPPS. Keep in mind that there are also other types of bad people—such as those bigoted against Mexicans and Muslims, without approving of sexual assault. If we added up all the various types of bad people, including bigots and sexual predators, how many would we have?
PPPPS. Somebody needs to find the original data, and get me a gender breakdown on the 8%.
Update: I probably should have indicated that most of the 8% were probably being sarcastic. I was also trying to be sarcastic.
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9. October 2016 at 06:47
Scott, remember about lizardmen when interpreting survey results like this.
http://slatestarcodex.com/2013/04/12/noisy-poll-results-and-reptilian-muslim-climatologists-from-mars/
Good chance a lot of the 8% are griefers, or are using the poll to project beliefs not directly related to the poll question. The fact that 8% said that Trump’s deplorable behavior improves their impression of Trump is telling us something, but it’s probably not really telling us what 20 million people believe about the way women should be treated.
-Ken
9. October 2016 at 06:50
You seem oddly influenced by “tone” for someone so rational. To me the ultimate evils are those which actually produce bad outcomes.
Bill Clinton treating women like trash while Hillary stands by his side and supports him in her quest for power is far worse in my opinion than some Trump guy-talk about sex among friends.
The war on drugs and associated sentencing rules – designed and perpetuated by our current power structure – absolutely decimated the Black race. That is far worse and more racist in my opinion than Trump saying illegal Mexican immigrants are more likely to commit rape.
I want people to be accountable on actions for more so than on remarks. And yet our culture seems to desire the exact opposite. I suppose we deserve our outcomes.
9. October 2016 at 06:52
I will post one section of Scott Alexander’s Lizardman essay here… In a world where 13% will claim to believe that Obama is the Anti-Christ, the surprising thing is that *only* 8% would say that news item X improves their impression of Trump for any X. Maybe Trump has fewer passionate supporters than we thought.
-Ken
===================================
Poll Answers As Attire
Alas, not all weird poll answers can be explained that easily. On the same poll, 13% of Americans claimed to believe Barack Obama was the Anti-Christ. Subtracting our Lizardman’s Constant of 4%, that leaves 9% of Americans who apparently gave this answer with something approaching sincerity.
(a friend on Facebook pointed out that 5% of Obama voters claimed to believe that Obama was the Anti-Christ, which seems to be another piece of evidence in favor of a Lizardman’s Constant of 4-5%. On the other hand, I do enjoy picturing someone standing in a voting booth, thinking to themselves “Well, on the one hand, Obama is the Anti-Christ. On the other, do I really want four years of Romney?”)
Some pollsters are starting to consider these sorts of things symptomatic of what they term symbolic belief, which seems to be kind of what the Less Wrong sequences call Professing and Cheering or Belief As Attire. Basically, people are being emotivists rather than realists about belief. “Obama is the Anti-Christ” is another way of just saying “Boo Obama!”, rather than expressing some sort of proposition about the world.
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9. October 2016 at 07:00
The 8% is a combination of people annoyed at pollsters and not giving truthful answers, people getting defensive about their previous decision to vote for Trump and will never admit they were wrong…and then there are some that did not pay attention when the video was being played. This reminds me of people interviewed to give their reaction to the first lady debate questions on Jimmy Kimmel….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vG8lVhyWPmI
9. October 2016 at 07:14
Scott,
I think the previous skepticism you expressed about polls in general applies, but that said, you’re going too easy on some people.
9. October 2016 at 07:18
Ken, Yes, I agree. I was just trying to be cute. I do recall the Alexander post, and was thinking of it when I wrote this. I should have linked to it. As you may know, I’m not a fan of polls of “public opinion, indeed I’ve done posts arguing there is no such thing as public opinion.
Effem, Are you sure it’s not you who is influenced by “tone”
1. I’ve done many posts pointing out that the establishment vastly underrates the problem of the war on drugs, and that it’s a far more important issue that many of the so-called “top issues” in the campaign.
2. I’ve said Hillary is “terrible”, I don’t defend her.
3. Trump’s comments were not just “guy talk”. Typical “guy talk” is “I’d like to sleep with X”, not “I occasionally sexually assault women because I’m so powerful I can get away with it.” OK, maybe that’s guy talk in prison, I can’t say, as I’ve never been there.
Engineer, I agree.
9. October 2016 at 08:32
I don’t know if you saw this quote from the late, great William Buckley from 16 years…but it is worth giving it more airtime..so I am repeating it below…
“Look for the narcissist. The most obvious target in today’s lineup is, of course, Donald Trump. When he looks at a glass, he is mesmerized by its reflection. If Donald Trump were shaped a little differently, he would compete for Miss America. But whatever the depths of self-enchantment, the demagogue has to say something. So what does Trump say? That he is a successful businessman and that that is what America needs in the Oval Office. There is some plausibility in this, though not much. The greatest deeds of American Presidents — midwifing the new republic; freeing the slaves; harnessing the energies and vision needed to win the Cold War — had little to do with a bottom line.”
And he wasn’t finished:
“In the final analysis, just as the king might look down with terminal disdain upon a courtier whose hypocrisy repelled him, so we have no substitute for relying on the voter to exercise a quiet veto when it becomes more necessary to discourage cynical demagogy, than to advance free health for the kids. That can come later, in another venue; the resistance to a corrupting demagogy should take first priority.”
Finally, he illuminated Trump’s narcissism by comparing him with Steve Forbes:
“So what else can Trump offer us? Well to begin with, a self-financed campaign. Does it follow that all who finance their own campaigns are narcissists? At this writing Steve Forbes has spent $63 million in pursuit of the Republican nomination. Forbes is an evangelist, not an exhibitionist. In his long and sober private career, Steve Forbes never bought a casino, and if he had done so, he would not have called it Forbes’s Funhouse. His motivations are discernibly selfless. . .”
9. October 2016 at 09:09
I work a lot with surveys in the day job, and at least 10% of respondents in any context either don’t bother to read/listen to the question or don’t understand it.
8% doesn’t worry me, I expect three quarters of that is just noise. That said, it’s at the upper end of the range I can be relaxed about.
9. October 2016 at 09:37
Those 8% are not “bad people.” Four or five percent of them are what Scott Alexander calls “Lizardman’s constant,” namely the number of people who say on polls that they believe that lizardmen are running the government, namely people who give the most absurd response they can to any poll; the rest are partisans who answered in the way that they supposed meant that they supported their party.
It is simply unreasonable to suppose that anything close to 8% of people actually became more favorable toward Trump for that reason.
9. October 2016 at 09:38
Ah, I see you already mentioned that post by Scott. I hadn’t read the comments when I commented.
9. October 2016 at 10:13
“I occasionally sexually assault women because I’m so powerful I can get away with it.”
-Something Trump never said.
9. October 2016 at 10:33
I’m surprised it’s only 8%. I agree that many people do not take a question literally, or respond to the detail of it. 8& could easily have just responded to their vague sense of the question, which could have been “Do you still love Trump?”
To many people, Trump isn’t a man; he’s the anti-establishment symbol who is supposedly pure and moral, simply by virtue of never having been tainted by holding government office.
Effen, you said “The war on drugs and associated sentencing rules – designed and perpetuated by our current power structure – absolutely decimated the Black race. That is far worse and more racist in my opinion than Trump saying illegal Mexican immigrants are more likely to commit rape.”
True. However, there is the assumption by too many people that because something was initiated by our current power structure, that politicians who have experience in government could never make a change in it, as times changed, and as the populations’ views changed.
There is plenty of proof that this is not so. E.g. there are plenty of politicians who are pro gay marriage, and more are becoming in favor of national marijuana legalization. You’d have been hard pressed to find a politician who was publicly in favor of either of these things, just a few years ago.
Politicians are obviously capable of shifting when the will of the people shifts.
I think most Americans are very immature in their expectations of politics and politicians. It’s silly and immature to expect Hillary, or Bill Clinton, or anyone else who was in politics decades ago, to have held the positions that more and more Americans are holding now, but that almost no one held years ago.
Also, the idea that politics is corrupt because of the Big Money in it, is true. But to take it out on all people who have experience working in government is immature. If we don’t want the corruption of Big Money in politics, we vote for people who want to overturn Citizens United.
This idea of voting for someone who “never got their hands dirty” by participating in politics, is babyish, and is unrealistic. No one gets elected except by playing by the rules that we have. Some do want to change the rules.
If we don’t like the Big Money in Politics rules, we vote for people who have promised to vote to overturn them and to have public financing of elections. But we don’t go looking for any narcissist who brags about having done nothing in government ever before, and who says things that people want to hear but who has a history of cheating many people and of never helping anyone but himself.
I don’t think Americans are deplorable as much as infantile.
9. October 2016 at 11:48
See, this is why Western women aren’t having children. Because all the men are a bunch of castrated wimps.
9. October 2016 at 11:49
When you outlaw sex, only outlaws will have sex.
Which is pretty much what we’re seeing now.
9. October 2016 at 12:23
Regarding Scott Adams’s point that logical consistency requires both Trump and Hillary to step down, the victims speak;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvoRcPXURwg
9. October 2016 at 13:56
engineer, Yes, at least Buckley’s conservatism had some class.
Harding, You said:
“Something Trump never said.”
Yes, he did, you must not have listened to the tape. He’s admitted he said it. And we know who some of his victims were.
Daniel, A perfect example of why the GOP is in trouble with women. Remember Akin with is “voluntary rape” ideas. You guys just don’t get it.
Trump has freely admitted that he’s had lots of affairs throughout the campaign. Nobody cared. If you don’t see anything different in these tapes then that’s on you.
Patrick, The both sides are guilty argument would be stronger if Bill Clinton were the candidate. I’m not saying that Hillary’s actions are defensible, but to the average voter someone trying to defend their husband in a sleazy way just doesn’t seem as bad as cheating on your wife in a sleazy way, and/or abusing women.
9. October 2016 at 14:11
A perfect example of why the GOP is in trouble with women.
Do you ask you pet for its opinions ?
No ?
Why not ?
Do you hand over the keys to your expensive car to a teenager ?
No ?
Why not ?
Then why would you care about women’s opinion ?
Men lead, women follow.
That’s how nature intended.
Not that I’d expect an eunuch to understand.
9. October 2016 at 14:20
Oh, and by the way – nobody likes a white knight. Women least of all.
9. October 2016 at 19:28
‘…to the average voter someone trying to defend their husband in a sleazy way just doesn’t seem as bad as cheating on your wife in a sleazy way, and/or abusing women.’
Except that Hillary aided and abetted a felony; witness intimidation. The three on the video tell pretty much the same story that Sally Perdue (‘It’d be a shame if anything happened to those pretty legs’), Dolly Browning and other victims of Bill have admitted happened.
Remember how Bob Bennett spent most of his time on 60 Minutes staring at his shoes while reciting, ‘The President claims…says…tells a different story….’
I thought Hillary made a major tactical blunder tonight in talking about the Trump tape. She gave him the opening he needed to attack her for enabling felonious behavior by Bill. She should have declined to comment, just saying the tape speaks for itself. Instead Trump gave a coherent, reasonable description of how Hillary abused women…specific women who were sitting right there in front of her.
10. October 2016 at 02:48
But is Scott just being sarcastic when he says that he is being sarcastic? Can we even tell anymore?
10. October 2016 at 05:18
Don’t hide behind sarcasm here Scott.
“Lots of Americans are Bad People” is obviously true for some definitions of “lots”.
Do you think Americans are worse than non-Americans? Do you have a point at all? Perhaps something grand and bleak about humanity?
10. October 2016 at 10:00
As someone who grew up in a legitimately blue collar environment and worked in that enviroment and occasionally… gasp… actually still converses with those people, I’m not especially shocked by what Trump said. I’ve heard plenty worse, and it did not strike me as especially serious. It was an insecure man bullshitting.
If there was something surprising about it, it was that Trump was actually rather self-deprecating, in that he basically laughingly admitted to getting shot down. He obviously hasn’t seriously committed repeated sexual assaults, given that there’s plenty of incentive for said victims to come forward.
Bottom line, he’s an asshole and I won’t vote for him and I wouldn’t want my sons to emulate him. But I’d bet dollars to donuts you could dig up Bill Clinton saying and doing worse.
And… I totally disagree that Hillary comes off as not as bad. At least to my wife, who’s a successful, professional woman in a very mail-dominated field, Clinton’s behavior is just as bad, if not worse.
Why? Because Hillary Clinton’s role in defending and coming down harshly on the long string of women abused and used by her husband is a much clearer example of how dangerous and damaging it is for women to raise the issue of sexual assault and harassment, even when they’ve been victimized.
The average voting woman might rightly think that Trump is a boorish asshole who might give her an unwanted kiss on the cheek. She might rightly think that Hillary Clinton is the kind of woman that in past times was the plantation owner who would have a slave flogged for being flirtatious enough to be raped by her husband, and her children sold at market.
10. October 2016 at 10:18
I don’t consider his comments that bad from what I’ve heard of the excerpts. Honestly every rich kid I know speaks the exact same way.
And for the record Bill Clinton has a dozen women accusing him of rape. Trump whose probably had more conquest has only been accused of rape by an ex-wife. I think many women have said he was one of the best lovers of his life. Fact is a lot of women like aggressive behavior and my guess is he’s a smart enough man to know where to draw the line.
10. October 2016 at 12:38
I actually have to agree with E. Harding, it hasn’t been established that Trump is any sort of groper or whatever. It has only been established that he talks in certain ways at certain times.
What strikes me as the worst aspect of these revelations, for Trump, is not what he said to Billy Bush but what he says now about Bill Clinton, the whole “Bill Clinton said worse to me on the golf course.” Assuming this is true, which I doubt, isn’t Trump violating a code of ethics by ratting him out? Trump is either a liar or a weasel, there’s no third alternative.
11. October 2016 at 05:20
In other news, 21% of Americans currently approve the historical internment of Japanese Americans, and 13% disapprove with the Emancipation Proclamation (to free all slaves).
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ps6zskmuwy/econTabReport.pdf (pages 137-138)
11. October 2016 at 08:12
Honestly every rich kid I know speaks the exact same way.
Must be generational. I crossed paths with my share of rich kids between 1975 and 1985. No, they didn’t talk that way. Neither did their fathers.
11. October 2016 at 18:05
Brian, Why would anyone come to themoneyillusion to find out the percentage of Americans who are “bad”? And suppose I said 17.3% of Americans are “bad”; what would that statement even mean?
11. October 2016 at 18:07
MikeDC, Really? I don’t ever recall hearing a blue collar worker saying he could get away with groping women because he was a star.
11. October 2016 at 18:09
Saturos, If my ultra stupid posts are not sarcasm, then people really should stop reading them.
12. October 2016 at 07:08
Scott, curious if you’ve seen Obama’s latest video from his plane where he is, ummm, a bit, excited? Does that fall under “guy-talk” or do you now classify Obama as a bad person as well?
12. October 2016 at 07:46
I noticed in this reprinted discussion among 538 personnel, that Nate Silver casually tosses out this stat (emphasis added):
By “white nationalists” I assume he means this.
12. October 2016 at 07:57
Because they’re stars, no. But I definitely heard a lot of the kiss-first, ask later approach talk, and the metaphorical just go up and grab them by the pussy talk. Yes, there was the element with Trump of “I’m rich so I can get away with it” but you hear the same in blue collar contexts too. The same “being variations on women respond positively to aggressive sexual advances” because they see how cool/rich/macho I am.
12. October 2016 at 07:58
Scott, I’m with you in the 28%. The #OctoberConfirmation about Trump was just that: no surprise at all. So it’s a little scary that for 61% this constitutes mind changing new information!
12. October 2016 at 10:27
Trump is losing women “bigly:”
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-women-are-defeating-donald-trump/
Even some influential “evangelicals” such as Beth Moore (according to E. Erickson):
http://theresurgent.com/the-women-are-leading-the-men/
http://theresurgent.com/one-of-the-most-influential-women-in-america-just-spoke-up-loudly-on-trump/
12. October 2016 at 10:53
Three way race in Utah?:
http://theresurgent.com/evan-mcmullin-surging-above-20-points-in-utah/
12. October 2016 at 16:04
Sean, you write:
Trump whose probably had more conquest has only been accused of rape by an ex-wife.
No, actually a woman who claims Trump raped her in the 1990s when she was 13 years old (back when Trump used to hang out with billionaire Jeffrey Epstein, who’s now a convicted pedophile). There’s a hearing in the case set for this December, and the woman is now being represented by attorney Cheney Mason. Also several former Miss Teen USA contestants spoke out recently verifying that Trump’s brag to Howard Stern that he could get away with walking through the girl’s dressing rooms while they were naked, is actually true. Some of the girls who were unnerved by Mr. Trump’s behavior were just 15 years old at the time. And just today two women came forward with allegations of unwanted sexual advances by Mr. Trump. Conservative radio host Erick Erickson writes about it here:
http://theresurgent.com/breaking-women-come-forward-who-trump-groped/
There certainly are a number of well publicized sexual misconduct allegations against ex-President Bill Clinton, some of which he’s admitted to:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Clinton_sexual_misconduct_allegations
Special prosecutor Ken Starr felt there was insufficient evidence to pursue any assault or rape charges though. I guess we’ll see how Trump’s trial goes.
12. October 2016 at 16:06
“trial” is the wrong word: “Lawsuit” is what I should have written. Here are more details:
http://lawnewz.com/high-profile/high-profile-casey-anthony-attorney-now-representing-jane-doe-in-trump-rape-lawsuit/
12. October 2016 at 18:12
But wait, there’s more! (from RedState):
http://www.redstate.com/bs/2016/10/12/rains-trump-victims-pours/
http://www.redstate.com/patterico/2016/10/12/another-one-palm-beach-woman-says-trump-groped/
12. October 2016 at 18:16
http://www.redstate.com/sweetie15/2016/10/12/trump-campaign-has-a-bizarre-defense-strategy/
12. October 2016 at 19:00
Josh Barro (on Twitter) has entered a bet of 120 for the number of women that come forward. Call it Trump’s “grope pool” if you will. Brad DeLong thinks that’s way too low, and now Josh is regretting such a low guess. I’m going way low at 75. Any other takers?
12. October 2016 at 20:32
Something that occurred to me as well:
https://twitter.com/BenHowe/status/786421910565425152
13. October 2016 at 07:43
MikeDC, Sure there are a lot of aggressive males. But I think Americans have a visceral distaste for people who brag about how their wealth and power lets them live by a different set of rules. It’s part of our DNA, why we rebelled against the UK.
13. October 2016 at 11:49
Some Americans. According to 538 they appear to be called “women.”