Today’s tally

NH Senator Ayotte—withdraws endorsement of Trump

Utah Governor Gary Herbert—withdraws endorsement of Trump

Utah Rep. Jason Chaffetz—withdraws endorsement of Trump

Utah Sen. Mike Lee—Now calls for Trump to drop out of race

Illinois Sen. Mark Kirk—Now calls on Trump to drop out of race

Nevada Sen. candidate Joe Heck—withdraws endorsement of Trump

Carly Fiorina—withdraws endorsement and calls on Trump to drop out of the race, replaced with Pence

W.V. Senator Capito calls on Trump to “reexamine” his candidacy

National Chair of College Republicans—withdraws endorsement

Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman calls on Trump to drop out

Former New York Gov. George Pataki called on Trump to drop out

Rep. Barbara Comstock calls on Trump to drop out

Rep. Mike Coffman calls on Trump to drop out

Sen. John Thune calls on Trump to drop out  (He’s a key senator)

Former Cal. Gov. Arnold Schwartzenegger withdraws endorsement

Former NJ Gov. Christine Todd Whitman endorses Hillary today

SD Gov. Dennis Daugaard called on Trump to withdraw

Talk show host Hugh Hewitt called on Trump to withdraw

Rep. Fred Upton urges Trump to withdraw

Sen. Mike Crapo calls on Trump to withdraw

Rep. Martha Roby withdrew her endorsement of Trump

Sen. Dan Sullivan calls on Trump to withdraw

Sen.  Lisa Murkowski withdraws support for Trump

Rep. Rodney Davis calls for Trump to withdraw

Rep. Mia Love calls on Trump to withdraw

Rep. Bradley Byrne withdraws endorsement of Trump

Rep. Chris Stewart withdraws support

Rep. Ann Wagner withdraws support

Rep. Crescent Hardy withdraws support

Rep. Scott Garrett calls for Trump to withdraw

Sen. Jeff Flake moves from uncommitted to against Trump

Gov. Kasich moves from uncommitted to against Trump

Sen. candidate Cory Gardner calls for Trump to withdraw

Sen. Deb Fischer calls on Trump to withdraw

John McCain, ’bout time the war hero stepped up to the plate!

Condoleezza Rice has called for Trump to withdraw

Se. Ben Sasse calls for Trump to withdraw

Gov. Rodney Bentley withdraws endorsement of Trump

Gov. Sandoval and Gov. Martinez move from undecided to “won’t support” Trump

Rep. Will Hurd calls for Trump to pull out of race.

Rep. Katko calls for Trump to pull out of race

Rep. Erik Paulson rescinds endorsement of Trump

Rep. Tom Rooney withdraws endorsement of Trump

Rep. Frank LoBiondo withdraws endorsement of Trump

Rep. Jeff Fortenberry withdraws endorsement of Trump

Tim Pawlenty, former Gov. of Minnesota

Good news for Trump, the religious right is sticking with him

But this doesn’t sound good:

The Republican National Committee on Saturday appeared to at least temporarily halt the operations of some of the “Victory” program that is devoted to electing Donald Trump.

In an email from the RNC to a victory program mail vendor, with the subject line “Hold on all projects,” the committee asked the vendor to “put a hold” on mail production.

And now, Tic Tac condemns Trump:

“Tic Tac respects all women,” Tic Tac USA posted on Twitter Saturday afternoon. “We find the recent statements and behavior completely inappropriate and unacceptable.”

(Folks, keep in mind that these are all Republicans, and this is just one day in the Trump campaign)

Please add names in the comment section, as they come in.

Update:  Clinton is now more likely to win Utah than Trump is to win the election.

Update #2:  Clinton was smart to wait until so close to the election; the logistics of switching to Pence are tricky–and early votes are pouring in every day.  By election day, 60% of votes in North Carolina will already be in, and that’s a must-win state for the GOP.  Sunday’s debate should be interesting.  Can’t wait to see what Hillary is holding back until 4 days before the election—the time of maximum damage (as Bush found out in 2000.)


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140 Responses to “Today’s tally”

  1. Gravatar of Gary Anderson Gary Anderson
    8. October 2016 at 09:28

    And yes, Utah people, despite some racist passages in the Book of Mormon are very protective of family and respect women. Trump is toast in Utah.

  2. Gravatar of Gary Anderson Gary Anderson
    8. October 2016 at 09:46

    Utah’s John Huntsman withdrew support. While the book of Mormon has some reference to white superiority, Utah residents, are very respectful of women and family.

  3. Gravatar of Peter Peter
    8. October 2016 at 10:09

    Why was this such a big deal? Trump’s “why can’t we use nukes?” statement was a billion times worse (for a presidential candidate).

  4. Gravatar of Gary Anderson Gary Anderson
    8. October 2016 at 10:18

    The nuke statement was not confirmed to the die hards. It was stated on Joe’s radio show. But this sexual abuse has video too. People need to see irrefutable evidence.

    Alabama Rep Martha Roby, Republican, has called on Trump to step aside. That is in alabama, folks.

  5. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    8. October 2016 at 10:22

    @Peter, “why can’t we use nukes” firstly, never happened, secondly, was a perfectly legitimate question.

    Let me make this clear. I support the Republican nominee and voted for him. He should not have apologized for his par-for-the-course decade-old statements -rather, he should have defended them as perfectly honest. I call for Pence to be dumped from the ticket due to his failure to understand foreign policy and his Russophobic name-calling. He is a threat to the world.

    As I’ve said, rational people understand Pence’s Syria comments days ago are three orders of magnitude worse than something Trump said a decade ago.

    Ayotte, Kirk, and Heck are very, very stupid for their endorsement withdrawal, as Trump won those states in the primaries by landslide margins, and he will probably win them come November. I’m not going to support their Democratic challengers (like I support Mike Lee’s, for his call for Trump to drop out), but my opinion of them as political prostitutes has solidified.

    Is Chaffetz’s endorsement withdrawal (for 11-year-old statements having nothing to do with the big issues!) more due to his Judaism or his location in Utah? The future will tell.

    Carly is a neocon. No wonder she supports a fellow neocon over a true champion of the American people.

    And it’s Jon Huntsman, not Jim.

    If Clinton released this, it’s now fair game for Trump to criticize Her for enabling the sexual abuse of women back in the 1990s.

    You will all forget about this in four days -guaranteed.

    60% of the votes will be in in North Carolina -and Trump appears to be winning them by quite a bit. Only 30% of the votes will be in in the nation as a whole.
    https://www.facebook.com/DeplorableVaughn/posts/1793851324228015

    “Update: Clinton is now more likely to win Utah than Trump is to win the election.”

    -Another one of your election predictions to be proven wrong. The FiveThirtyEight NowCast has Trump with a 98% chance of winning Utah -more than Georgia.

    “Can’t wait to see what Hillary is holding back until 4 days before the election”

    -Nothing. Can’t wait to see what Assange is holding back.

  6. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    8. October 2016 at 10:24

    *One error above: Trump will not win Illinois come November. And Mark Kirk will be defeated anyway. He’s a pussy.

  7. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    8. October 2016 at 10:27

    BTW, Clinton laughed about killing Gaddafi and defending a child rapist. Isn’t that a bit more deplorable?

  8. Gravatar of Gary Anderson Gary Anderson
    8. October 2016 at 10:28

    Harding, you are out of your mind. It’s over.

  9. Gravatar of C D C D
    8. October 2016 at 10:33

    One comment:

    The logistics of that switch are less complicated than you portrayed. While uncertainty about the nominee may affect turnout, it should not affect outcomes all that much via the path you describe. Because of the electoral college setup, we vote for electors who can then change their votes from trump to pence with relative ease were trump to step down.

  10. Gravatar of CD CD
    8. October 2016 at 10:38

    Also — this is relevant:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15MudzswjU45efqvus21goEqtknbsfy9w2CLaWvOa_z0/htmlview?sle=true

    Compiled by 538.

  11. Gravatar of Scott Freelander Scott Freelander
    8. October 2016 at 10:43

    Harding is Baghdad Bob. lol I’ve been trying to avoid insulting people online lately, though not entirely successfully. I will say though that there’s one good thing about Trumpistas. No matter how much I screw up or how I feel about myself at a certain moment, at least I’m not one of them.

  12. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    8. October 2016 at 10:46

    It was over when he said they were bringing drugs, crime, and rapists. He rose in the polls. It was over when he said he liked people who weren’t captured. He started leading in the polls. It was over when he called for a Muslim ban. He spiked in the polls. It was over when he lost Iowa. He won more primary votes in New Hampshire than Clinton. It was over when he said George Bush didn’t keep us safe and lied us into Iraq. He won all 60 delegates in South Carolina. It was over when he lost Ohio. He won New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Delaware, Maryland, Indiana, and Connecticut with a majority of the Republican vote. It was over when he called a judge biased. He then led Clinton in the polls. It was over during the convention bounce. He nearly tied Clinton in the polls.

    Now, it’s over when some decade-old remarks have been released.

    The story continues. We’ve heard it before.

  13. Gravatar of Scott Freelander Scott Freelander
    8. October 2016 at 10:48

    For the still blind, I posted two links in the comments of the last blog post. It’s now getting new attention that women are coming forward saying that Trump forced kisses on them, slid a hand up a skirt during a business meeting, etc. It appears this wasn’t just empty bragging from Trump. Trump will not be President.

  14. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    8. October 2016 at 10:49

    Guys, does this actually change any of your votes? You’ve indicated to me you don’t understand swing voters. I’m not one. You’re not one. 90% of the voting public aren’t swing voters. So do you actually know any real Americans (not politicos) who’ve changed their vote because of this?

    You’ll forget about this in four days.

  15. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    8. October 2016 at 10:53

    “Trump will not be President.”

    -Trump isn’t as weak as Herman Cain, man. Nobody was surprised by these remarks. Yes, Trump will be president. All he has to do is turn the race around by 2-3 points. He has an excellent opportunity to do so at tomorrow’s debate.

  16. Gravatar of Scott Freelander Scott Freelander
    8. October 2016 at 10:57

    Another note to Trumpistas: Trump wasn’t going to win anyway. His debate performance, continued personal attacks on a former Miss Universe, general piggish nature, and some natural built-in advantages for Democrats in the electoral college had already doomed Trump. Reports have it that he wasn’t preparing even for this second debate, before this scandal. Now undecided voters could well bring this up in front of many tens of millions of voters.

    The only question now is how badly Trump loses, if he even stays on the ticket, and how badly this hurts other Republicans.

  17. Gravatar of jill jill
    8. October 2016 at 10:59

    E. Harding has his right to defend his chosen leader whom he loves so much. And none of us can change that anyway. The rest of us do know that it’s over for Trump.

    Scott made the best statement on an earlier blog post of his: That Klein at vox.com had said that the past 6 days showed that Trump is not qualified to be president. Scott said “But that you could say that about any 6 day period.”

    Many people have been for Trump because they are told by their Right Wing news sources that the choice is simple: Hillary/political establishment vs. Trump/Change everything so that it’s great.

    People know that we were screwed over in the financial crisis, that there is a lot of corruption and greed in politics. Despite the fact that most of this has been done by the GOP, The Right Wing has managed to associate all of that in people’s minds with Hillary, as a representative of the political establishment– and to get people to think of Trump as the guy who is clean because he’s not associated with “politricks.” Having no experience in, or knowledge of, politics is thought of as the supreme virtue in this framework.

    This article I’ve posted before details the history of this government bashing, and belief that any association with government taints a person, and thus that outsiders are the ones to vote for.

    The political scientist who saw Trump’s rise coming
    Norm Ornstein on why the Republican Party was ripe for a takeover, what the media missed, and whether Trump could win the presidency.

    http://www.vox.com/2016/5/6/11598838/donald-trump-predictions-norm-ornstein

  18. Gravatar of Scott Freelander Scott Freelander
    8. October 2016 at 11:01

    Actually, several Trumpistas who post on an online alumni forum with me who were strongly for Trump before Friday night are now saying he’s a scumbag and are saying they won’t vote at all.

  19. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    8. October 2016 at 11:04

    “His debate performance, continued personal attacks on a former Miss Universe, general piggish nature,”

    -Didn’t hurt his support, amazingly enough. Check the LAT/USC poll.

    “and some natural built-in advantages for Democrats in the electoral college had already doomed Trump.”

    -Have you checked FiveThirtyEight? Trump has the electoral college advantage relative to the popular vote margin, as his support is more concentrated in the swing states than Mitt’s. Not making it up.

    I’m pretty sure this will hurt Trump’s support among women for a few days, simply due to the media attention it has gotten. Little to no effect on men’s support for Trump. But those supporters will be rallied back after the second debate.

    I don’t love Trump. I think he’s the best candidate of those that ran.

    You’re the same people that predicted Trump couldn’t possibly win the nomination. Show some respect.

  20. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    8. October 2016 at 11:07

    “are now saying he’s a scumbag and are saying they won’t vote at all.”

    -He’ll get them back. If they didn’t expect Trump to have said something like this a decade ago (a decade!) they’re lying.

  21. Gravatar of Bill Ellis Bill Ellis
    8. October 2016 at 11:26

    E Harding… HAhahahah…ahHAHAHAhhaaaaaa….hahahahahah…AHHAHAHAhhhhh…. AHAHAHAH …ahahHAhahahHAHH……ha ha ..aaaahaha…aaaaa…he ha aaa…he heeee ha…aaa…

    damn…I can’t stop laughing…. sooooo funny. You made my day !

    Thank you…

  22. Gravatar of Jill Jill
    8. October 2016 at 11:31

    Hey, Bill, no need to be mean. Haven’t you ever had faith in, or love toward, someone, and then realized later you were mistaken? It’s easy to go wrong if you believe “facts” from Fox News, Right Wing web sites, and Right Wing radio. And many many people do. Propaganda works.

  23. Gravatar of Anand Anand
    8. October 2016 at 11:31

    Off topic:
    I remember one of your posts about the ADA. UC Berkeley might be forced to take down online course content because it does not have resources to handle people with disabilities. (http://news.berkeley.edu/2016/09/13/a-statement-on-online-course-content-and-accessibility/)

  24. Gravatar of Anand Anand
    8. October 2016 at 11:33

    On topic again:
    Trump’s chances in the betting markets have taken a sharp dive . My guess is that it is mostly due to coup fears by GOP establishment rather than anything Trump said per se. It’s hard to believe that they were unaware of the kind of man Trump is.

  25. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    8. October 2016 at 11:34

    Peter, He has at least a dozen statements that are worse. And that’s not to downplay this, which is appalling and would get him fired from almost any corporation in America.

    Where were these people when Trump said we should have stolen Iraq’s oil?

    Thanks CA.

  26. Gravatar of Bill Ellis Bill Ellis
    8. October 2016 at 11:35

    E Harding…It’s kinda sad that so many on the alt right hate women so much that they can’t see the significance of this… It’s a big blind spot for a lot of macho based tribes right and left… The bernie Bros were not much different in their misogyny..

    After thinking about it…I don’t think you’re so funny…

    what men who intentionally perpetuate misogyny can’t see…is that every act of misogyny has an equal dose of misandry built in…
    and most of that misandry falls on the heads of the misogynistic perpetrators…

    misogyny is actually a display of submission to the icon of the alpha…

  27. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    8. October 2016 at 11:35

    Anand, Thanks for the link.

  28. Gravatar of BC BC
    8. October 2016 at 11:36

    @C D: “electors who can then change their votes from trump to pence with relative ease were trump to step down.”

    Exactly. In some states, electors are bound to vote for the named candidate rather than the party. However, because Republicans control the majority of House delegations, their replacement candidate doesn’t actually need to win a majority of electoral votes. As long as Republicans deny Clinton a majority of electoral votes, even if enough Republican electoral votes are bound to Trump to deny the replacement a majority, the race would get thrown into the House, which could choose the replacement over Trump (and Clinton).

    In theory, the Republicans might even be able to replace Trump involuntarily. In some states, electors aren’t actually legally bound to vote for anyone. So, even if Republicans weren’t able to officially replace Trump involuntarily due to party rules, party officials could all orally endorse a replacement candidate. Then, there would only need to be enough unbound electors in Republican states to vote for the replacement instead of Trump to deny Trump the majority. Again, the race would get thrown into the House.

    In short, the fact that Republicans control the majority of House delegations gives them many paths, if they want to take them, to replace Trump.

  29. Gravatar of Jill Jill
    8. October 2016 at 11:43

    “Peter, He has at least a dozen statements that are worse.”

    True. I guess something had to be the straw– or iron clad bale of hay– that broke the camel’s back. So the GOP establishment chose this one, for whatever reason.

    Bill, interesting comments you made. Our whole society has been a “display of submission to the icon of the alpha”– not just in misogyny, but in tons of ways. Hopefully, this experience with Trump will get us to re-evaluate.

    Worshiping rich assholes is a big mistake. That’s a lot of what the financial crisis in 2008 was about, and the crisis of medical costs– people believing that if you are rich, you’re great, no matter how many laws you broke or how many vulnerable people you screwed over We need to stop allowing rich successful people to get away with murder literally and figuratively.

  30. Gravatar of Gary Anderson Gary Anderson
    8. October 2016 at 11:56

    So Harding, how did it go for Bill Cosby when people learned he assaulted women? Trump is dead in the water.

  31. Gravatar of Patrick R. Sullivan Patrick R. Sullivan
    8. October 2016 at 12:12

    ‘…how did it go for Bill Cosby when people learned he assaulted women? Trump is dead in the water.’

    Two words; Hillary’s husband.

  32. Gravatar of Patrick R. Sullivan Patrick R. Sullivan
    8. October 2016 at 12:15

    ‘Former Cal. Gov. Arnold Schwartzenegger withdraws endorsement’

    Does anyone else find that as amusing as I do?

  33. Gravatar of Gary Anderson Gary Anderson
    8. October 2016 at 12:17

    Bill had affairs. We are talking about assault here. Add this to it:

    Donald Trump is being sued by a woman in New York who says Trump raped and beat her at age 13. There is a witness. Now we have Trump proving on video that he does assault adult women. It gives some validation to the woman suing him, as to his character.

  34. Gravatar of happyjuggler0 happyjuggler0
    8. October 2016 at 12:18

    So, we can vote for a male candidate who conducted sexual assault. Or we can vote for a female candidate who covered up sexual assault. Or we can vote for Gary Johnson.

    There is only one sane option, and that is to not vote for the lesser of two evils.

  35. Gravatar of Gary Anderson Gary Anderson
    8. October 2016 at 12:39

    Broderick supported Clinton after the alleged rape. Maybe she made some money on the deal. The difference is that Trump is running and Bill isn’t.

    By the way, the Republicans are looking for a Trumplacement. Or maybe a Trumpturnative.

  36. Gravatar of Patrick R. Sullivan Patrick R. Sullivan
    8. October 2016 at 12:39

    ‘Bill had affairs. We are talking about assault here. ‘

    As usual, your command of the facts leaves quite a bit to be desired.

  37. Gravatar of Gary Anderson Gary Anderson
    8. October 2016 at 12:42

    Like I say, even if Broderick was raped, Bill isn’t running, Patrick.

  38. Gravatar of Jill Jill
    8. October 2016 at 12:50

    There are lots of allegations and accusations. And Hillary and Bill are always painted as being guilty until proven innocent, by the Right Wing media.

    But this was Trump himself speaking about who he is and what he does.

  39. Gravatar of Patrick R. Sullivan Patrick R. Sullivan
    8. October 2016 at 12:51

    ‘ Bill isn’t running, Patrick.’

    No, it’s the woman who enabled (by degrading his victims) him for all these years.

  40. Gravatar of Patrick R. Sullivan Patrick R. Sullivan
    8. October 2016 at 12:56

    Let Juanita Broderick speak;

    https://twitter.com/atensnut/status/784726633588592640

    ‘How many times must it be said? Actions speak louder than words. DT said bad things!HRC threatened me after BC raped me.’

  41. Gravatar of Patrick R. Sullivan Patrick R. Sullivan
    8. October 2016 at 13:06

    Looks like The Donald understands game theory, at least;

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/784609194234306560

  42. Gravatar of Jill Jill
    8. October 2016 at 13:15

    For anyone who doesn’t remember, the U.S. justice system does not judge people as guilty until they are proven innocent. There is a difference between Right Wing media and the U.S. justice system. Allegations are not necessarily true, just because they are made by Right Wing media, or by people whom Right Wing media could dig up, or pay, to make an allegation.

    I could accuse anyone here on this board of rape. And someone could be paying me to make such allegations. That wouldn’t make them true.

  43. Gravatar of Matthew Moore Matthew Moore
    8. October 2016 at 13:23

    Americans, please explain: this seems to be causing a reaction 100 times bigger than any of his previous similar (to me) controversies.

    Is this just the proverbial straw, or is this incident perceived as being much worse?

  44. Gravatar of Jill Jill
    8. October 2016 at 13:31

    Remember the Swift Boat Veterans story against John Kerry. That story never happened. But Right Wing media pronounced Kerry guilty until proven innocent and their customers believed it.

    IS this just the proverbial straw?

    Yes.

    Is this incident perceived as being much worse?

    Yes. But it isn’t actually worse. it would just be embarrassing to admit that Trump was always this bad. So no one will admit it.

  45. Gravatar of msgkings msgkings
    8. October 2016 at 14:09

    @Jill:

    It is a difference in kind though, before this there were rumors of things he said about women, or audio clips from Howard Stern rating women’s cleavage and what not. This is an extended video and audio of the man himself just being the biggest pig imaginable. It’s the final straw and also the worst of the incidents of this type.

    People vote on emotion by and large, not issues. And this will repulse many wavering types and independents. Enough to ensure a Clinton win.

    Mind you he will still get 40% of the votes, even now. Like Patrick above. Mostly for tribal reasons. Around half of America just doesn’t like the other half and they vote accordingly.

  46. Gravatar of Art Deco Art Deco
    8. October 2016 at 14:14

    Had you ever taken the advice of any of the individuals on the list? If not, why is the list of interest.

  47. Gravatar of Art Deco Art Deco
    8. October 2016 at 14:34

    E Harding…It’s kinda sad that so many on the alt right hate women so much that they can’t see the significance of this… I

    I take it you do not realize this statement is utterly non sequitur.

  48. Gravatar of msgkings msgkings
    8. October 2016 at 14:36

    Art the hypocrite shows up to explain why voting for a guy he would absolutely pillory if he was a Democrat is a good idea.

  49. Gravatar of Jill Jill
    8. October 2016 at 14:54

    I’ve never met anyone on the list. The list is of interest because I want people to think about this when they start believing every rape allegation against Bill Clinton, or anyone else, without any proof whatsoever. Allegations without proof could happen to anyone, including you or me. I think people should consider this before jumping to the conclusion that someone is guilty, just because they were accused of something.

    I know that guilty of all accusations until proven innocent– as long as the person is a Democrat– is standard practice on Right Wing TV, radio, and Internet sites. And it’s just wrong.

  50. Gravatar of Scott Freelander Scott Freelander
    8. October 2016 at 14:56

    Scott,

    Condoleezza Rice called on Trump to step down.

  51. Gravatar of Carl Carl
    8. October 2016 at 15:45

    What a circus. With all the good reasons to abandon Trump as a con man, these Republicans are finally abandoning him now for getting caught on tape saying what he’d already bragged about doing in his book.

    Jill:
    Spare us the Huffington Post sermon. Hillary and Bill were calling Flowers and Lewinsky crazy stalkers until Flowers produced tapes and Lewinsky a stained dress.

  52. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    8. October 2016 at 16:21

    Patrick, You said:

    “Does anyone else find that as amusing as I do?”

    I do.

    Art loves to moralize–except when it comes to Trump.

  53. Gravatar of Bill Ellis Bill Ellis
    8. October 2016 at 16:25

    Sullivan and Harding… Trump’s baghdad bobbsey twins…

  54. Gravatar of Gary Anderson Gary Anderson
    8. October 2016 at 16:36

    Sullivan and Harding, which is the fat one? I think it was Hardying. Har, har har. http://www.laurel-and-hardy.com/

    Now you know what it is like to be abused like Trump abuses people. Let that be a lesson to you boys. Respect all people, even if they are overweight, or flat chested or have disabilities or are women, or are gay, or are black, Hispanic, Asian, etc.

  55. Gravatar of Bill Ellis Bill Ellis
    8. October 2016 at 16:39

    Jill…I can’t argue with you on being nice.. It’s probably not helping anything when I go after Harding and the rest of the alt righties..

    but… I find his opinions to be highly insulting..So I insult back… and I don’t think there is anything wrong with letting someone who shares his opinions in public for the purpose of persuasion know that I find their point of view deplorable… I sincerely think his mindset is a real contributor to violence and oppression in America… and I doubt he will change one bit…

    He is not going to realize later he was mistaken as you suggest…i’d bet.

  56. Gravatar of Bill Ellis Bill Ellis
    8. October 2016 at 17:05

    Art Deco… I take it you don’t know what a non sequitur is..

    here.. “an argument whose conclusion does not follow from its premises”

    See i’m guessing that you don’t know what it means to be nice to you…

    because otherwise you are saying that it.. does not logically follow… that if you know women, you would know that they can’t tolerate being molested…and that they find an attitude that is accepting of molestation dehumanizing, and dangerous… and therefor are going to be driven from trump in big numbers…

    see… if you don’t get that trump molesting women is a very serious deal that is killing his chances I’d have to conclude that YOU… hate women so much that you can’t see the significance of this…

    maybe you are so clueless about women that you don’t realize either that dehumanizing them and mocking their right to security will be deeply felt ? you may not call that kinda insensitivity and belittlement hate… but you’d be playing semantics games…

  57. Gravatar of Negation of Ideology Negation of Ideology
    8. October 2016 at 17:15

    Scott –

    “appalling and would get him fired from almost any corporation in America.”

    This is the part that I find most interesting. If someone acted like Trump does on a job interview, they would receive a polite rejection letter. If they acted like he does on the job, he wouldn’t be there for long.

    The reason he acts like a jerk all the time is because he inherited a ton of money and connections from his daddy, meaning almost everyone he deals with needs him more than he needs them. Therefore he faces no consequences for his bad behavior. So the lesson he learned is that it’s permissible, or even good to be a jerk.

    He was born on third base and believes he hit a triple.

  58. Gravatar of Benny Lava Benny Lava
    8. October 2016 at 17:40

    Wonder if good old trolling Bob Murphy will continue to support Trump and the Alt right.

  59. Gravatar of engineer engineer
    8. October 2016 at 17:54

    Speaking of rich guys…Elan Musk said recently that he thought the odds are a billion to one that we are not living in the matrix-like virtual reality. Perhaps Donald Trump is not real, but a crazy computer generated character. The theory is really sounding like it could be correct to me, but then again I am a sucker for conspiracy theories.

    Perhaps he is a character to get us back into the real world, which may already be in the aftermath of nuclear destruction. Virtual reality started after the Cuban missile crisis to cover up the nuclear holocaust that really ended the cold war. Trump gives nuclear weapons to Saudi Arabia, who funnel them to terrorists who start a nuclear war and then Trump responds by using nuclear weapons on the entire middle east. When conditions in the virtual world match the real world, we can end the Virtual world and reunite with the real world….

    Trump needs to come clean with us. How else did he know that Ted Cruz’s dad was part of the Kennedy assassination? That is what I want to know.

  60. Gravatar of Jill Jill
    8. October 2016 at 18:19

    Carl said:

    “Hillary and Bill were calling Flowers and Lewinsky crazy stalkers until Flowers produced tapes and Lewinsky a stained dress.”

    Yes, and both of those cases were consensual sex. No rape there. And no evidence of rape anywhere. Infidelity is not a good thing. But it is both common and legal.

    Engineer, do you mean that the War of the Small Hands might already have happened?

  61. Gravatar of Carl Carl
    8. October 2016 at 18:38

    Jill
    The point is Hillary and Bill had started to smear both those women with whom he had had consensual sex. The only thing that stopped the Clintons from continuing to smear those women was the production of hard evidence, not concern by the Clintons for truth or decency. As a result, there is plenty of reason to doubt their veracity in sexually criminal matters.

  62. Gravatar of Jill Jill
    8. October 2016 at 19:01

    Matthew Moore, although these tapes are the worst incident of their type for Trump, there are plenty of worse instances of other types.

    Perhaps the reason why this was chosen as the straw that broke the camel’s back is that Americans have a lot of conflicts about sexuality. So transgressions in this areas seems worse to some Americans than does nuclear war. We had 2 presidents who made errors, fairly recently. One lied to the public about WMD in Iraq, in order to start a long expensive bloody war, out of which rose ISIS and other terrorist movements which we are still dealing with today. Nothing good happened due to that war, except that the politicians’ military industrial complex political donors made tons of money. The other president got a blow job from an intern, which was consensual sex. Guess which one got impeached.

    Carl, there is nt reason to find the Clintons guilty until proven innocent, in sexually criminal matters. Putting down someone your husband had an affair with is not a good thing, but it is both common and legal. Also denying that you had an affair when you actually did is not a good thing, but it is both common and legal.

    I guess you get your”news” from Right Wing sources where every Democrat is guilty of everything they are accused of, until proven innocent. But I don’t use Fox News “facts” so I disagree.

  63. Gravatar of Patrick R. Sullivan Patrick R. Sullivan
    8. October 2016 at 19:09

    ‘The point is Hillary and Bill had started to smear both those women….’

    Not just those two. Kathleen Willey, Paula Jones, Sally Perdue, Dolly Browning…. So, if the question is who treats women with more respect….

  64. Gravatar of Saturos Saturos
    8. October 2016 at 19:17

    The hell is wrong with Harding and Sullivan? Have they received lobotomies?

  65. Gravatar of Patrick R. Sullivan Patrick R. Sullivan
    8. October 2016 at 19:20

    Saturos, can you point out any fact that I’ve misstated?

  66. Gravatar of Patrick R. Sullivan Patrick R. Sullivan
    8. October 2016 at 19:24

    ‘Putting down someone your husband had an affair with is not a good thing, but it is both common and legal.’

    Since the same is true of the things Trump is caught on tape saying, you’ll need a different argument.

  67. Gravatar of Patrick R. Sullivan Patrick R. Sullivan
    8. October 2016 at 19:40

    ‘If someone acted like Trump does on a job interview, they would receive a polite rejection letter. If they acted like he does on the job, he wouldn’t be there for long.’

    Good thing he owns the company, huh.

  68. Gravatar of Bill Ellis Bill Ellis
    8. October 2016 at 20:03

    Patrick says….”Good thing he owns the company, huh.”

    because if anything was really wrong with what he was doing the market would punish him ? Right ?

    a perfect example of how libertarians and learners let their devotion to Market Magic warp their morality…

    perhaps you think Uber men are not rightly bound by the morality of the masses ? do you think yourself one too ?

  69. Gravatar of msgkings msgkings
    8. October 2016 at 20:04

    @Patrick: yeah but it’s also a good thing his job interview for POTUS is going so badly

  70. Gravatar of Jill Jill
    8. October 2016 at 20:16

    Now, now, Bill Ellis, everyone has the right to worship at the church of their choice. The First Church of the Free Market has different moral doctrines. If a person or an activity makes money, it is moral, according to this church.

  71. Gravatar of Jill Jill
    8. October 2016 at 20:18

    Patrick, you said

    ‘Putting down someone your husband had an affair with is not a good thing, but it is both common and legal.’

    “Since the same is true of the things Trump is caught on tape saying, you’ll need a different argument.”

    No I won’t. Trump talked about practicing sexual assault and non-consensual sex on the tape. These things are not legal and are not that common.

  72. Gravatar of Patrick R. Sullivan Patrick R. Sullivan
    8. October 2016 at 20:26

    ‘Trump talked about practicing sexual assault and non-consensual sex on the tape. These things are not legal and are not that common.’

    1. Talking is not illegal. Just as I pointed out.

    2. Bill Clinton actually committed sexual assault. Ask Kathleen Willey, Paula Jones and Juanita Broderick. Hillary Clinton aided and abetted the smearing and cover up of her husband’s crimes.

    How long do you think it will take for the paint to dry on the floor?

  73. Gravatar of Benjamin Cole Benjamin Cole
    8. October 2016 at 20:30

    I am not voting for Trump.

    But what does it say about the American public that a U.S. president can announce he droned an ISIS leader to death in Pakistan (and oh, hardly worth noting, but the civilian taxi driver was murdered too)….

    but if Trump of 10 years ago was vulgar when bragging about female conquests…oh, that is serious!

    Bad language > murder

    So, I guess being vulgar is worse than causal murder of people who get in the way of “foreign policy.”

    Clinton will no doubt maintain the drone-kill-at-will foreign policy and who knows we may get enmeshed more deeply in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Iran not to mention Afghanistan or Pakistan. Then there is Libya, and the AEI crowd is hollering about Western Sahara, Tunisia and Egypt. I probably forgot a dozen or more hot spots that need federal money tossed at them too.

    Oh, and Russia and China.

    The possibilities for spending trillions on foreign policy and “national security” are endless and will likely be fulfilled with Clinton at the helm.

    Too bad Trump is a such a lulu.

    The D.C. establishment of other party is not worth voting or.

  74. Gravatar of Jill Jill
    8. October 2016 at 20:32

    Patrick Sullivan, someone could be paid to claim that you committed sexual assault. That wouldn’t make it true. And it wouldn’t make you guilty until proven innocent. Or would you prefer that it did? But only if you were a Democrat, I suppose.

    Yes, talking is not illegal. But if someone brags about doing illegal acts, I will take their word that they have done those things.

  75. Gravatar of Jill Jill
    8. October 2016 at 20:38

    Benjamin Cole, Trump would have done the same thing and worse. Pence would have been mostly in charge, since Trump knows nothing about government and has no interest in it. And Pence is a standard neocon. But Trump would have gotten angry about tiny slights, leading to the Nuclear World War III AKA The War of the Small Hands.

    I am not happy with neocons and useless wars. But Hillary would still be better than Trump on that score. And I hope for Bernie and his supporters like me, to all demonstrate in the streets and to pressure her to be progressive, not neocon, once she is in office.

  76. Gravatar of Jill Jill
    8. October 2016 at 20:40

    MsgKings, you said:

    “Mind you he will still get 40% of the votes, even now. Like Patrick above. Mostly for tribal reasons. Around half of America just doesn’t like the other half and they vote accordingly.”

    Exactly.

  77. Gravatar of Patrick R. Sullivan Patrick R. Sullivan
    8. October 2016 at 20:44

    ‘because if anything was really wrong with what he was doing the market would punish him ? Right ?’

    Right. Isn’t that obvious from the $900 million NOL on his tax return?

  78. Gravatar of Patrick R. Sullivan Patrick R. Sullivan
    8. October 2016 at 20:50

    ‘“Mind you he will still get 40% of the votes, even now. Like Patrick above.’

    Where did I say I was voting for Trump?

    My argument is strictly one of logic (or its absence).

  79. Gravatar of Patrick R. Sullivan Patrick R. Sullivan
    8. October 2016 at 20:54

    ‘Patrick Sullivan, someone could be paid to claim that you committed sexual assault. That wouldn’t make it true.’

    Bill Clinton’s own lawyer, paid to defend his client, conceded on national television that that at least one woman’s claims were true.

  80. Gravatar of msgkings msgkings
    8. October 2016 at 21:16

    “Where did I say I was voting for Trump?”

    LOL

  81. Gravatar of Jacob A Geller Jacob A Geller
    8. October 2016 at 21:49

    FiveThirtyEight’s model gives Clinton a 2% chance of winning Utah, but it doesn’t have any polling data from the past week, and almost no data for the last three weeks, which have been awful for Trump. And that model is generally reluctant to react to new data, by design.

    BetFair, which responds immediately to just about every relevant bit of information, gives Clinton a 25% chance of winning Utah.

    PredictIt gives any Democratic candidate a 24% chance in Utah.

    FiveThirtyEight, BetFair, and Predictit each give Trump an 18% chance of winning the general election.

    So yes, it would seem that betting markets believe Clinton has a better chance of winning Utah than Trump has of winning the election. Betting markets incorporate new information immediately, whereas polling-based models (and fundamentals-models) are slow to react, especially in a state like Utah where polling data is so scarce.

    PS – If the tax return documents and the Billy Bush video were released by the Clinton campaign, then they’ve been sitting on stuff like this for a while and the election is basically already over. This would explain Clinton’s relative timidity during the first debate — if her campaign has been sitting on a whole bunch of Alicia Machados, tax returns, Billy Bushes, and God knows what else until the last month before the election, then a conservative strategy at the debate was arguably warranted.

  82. Gravatar of Peter Peter
    8. October 2016 at 22:21

    Senator Rob Portman pulls Trump endorsement

    http://www.wcpo.com/news/national/senator-rob-portman-pulls-trump-endorsement

  83. Gravatar of Ray Lopez Ray Lopez
    8. October 2016 at 22:45

    While I don’t support Trump, as hinted by our host another more sinister question is why the Clinton campaign is manipulating public opinion by releasing this video now, just before the election? A more intelligent voter would object to the timing of the release, but most public commentators have an IQ of around 90 to 110, and on the internet tending towards the low number.

  84. Gravatar of Peter Peter
    8. October 2016 at 22:48

    Guardian put together a list. But I’m too lazy to check if they have anyone not on Scott’s list.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/08/donald-trump-list-of-republicans-reject-support-endorsement

  85. Gravatar of Peter Peter
    8. October 2016 at 22:57

    “Here Are The 30+ Republicans Calling For Trump To Step Aside”

    http://www.npr.org/2016/10/08/497225589/here-are-the-30-republicans-calling-for-trump-to-step-aside

  86. Gravatar of Peter Peter
    8. October 2016 at 23:04

    “Nearly 100 Evangelical Leaders Draft a Petition to Denounce Trump”

    http://www.redstate.com/sweetie15/2016/10/07/nearly-100-evangelical-leaders-draft-petition-denounce-trump/

  87. Gravatar of Peter Peter
    8. October 2016 at 23:21

    “More Than 150 Republican Leaders Don’t Support Donald Trump. Here’s When They Reached Their Breaking Point.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/08/29/us/politics/at-least-110-republican-leaders-wont-vote-for-donald-trump-heres-when-they-reached-their-breaking-point.html?smid=re-share

  88. Gravatar of Peter Peter
    8. October 2016 at 23:25

    Has there ever been anything even remotely similar in US history? So many party ‘leaders’ refusing to support their candidate.

  89. Gravatar of Peter Peter
    8. October 2016 at 23:30

    New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte

    https://twitter.com/KellyAyotte/status/784779876796665857

  90. Gravatar of H_WASSHOI (Maekawa Miku-nyan lover) H_WASSHOI (Maekawa Miku-nyan lover)
    8. October 2016 at 23:31

    I had to comment on this article for a good memory.(No.89)

  91. Gravatar of Ray Lopez Ray Lopez
    8. October 2016 at 23:45

    A bit off-topic, but I recall around 20 years ago it was a fad to grab your significant other by the crotch. I mean, in LA none other than OJ Simpson used to grab Nicole in the genitals in public and brag about it. Not that I condone this, nor have I ever done it, but for certain people it was OK. It reminds me of another lewd meme, where it was “acceptable”, when telling a certain joke, to display your genitals to the audience, since that was the punchline. It was a meme, not that popular, around 20 years ago and it was obviously for shock value.

    OT- @ssumner – read Baxter & Stockman please. Defeats money illusion.

  92. Gravatar of Scott Freelander Scott Freelander
    9. October 2016 at 00:04

    The producer of The Apprentice for seasons 1 and 2 says he has recordings of Trump worse than the most recent one released and will drop them out from now until election day.

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/300044-apprentice-producer-there-are-far-worse-tapes-of-trump?post_id=10155333574407468_10155333581107468#_=_

  93. Gravatar of Tom Brown Tom Brown
    9. October 2016 at 02:23

    https://twitter.com/billpruitt/status/784872190587998209?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

  94. Gravatar of Tom Brown Tom Brown
    9. October 2016 at 02:29

    @engineer,

    Sean Carroll looks at Musk’s assertion:
    http://www.preposterousuniverse.com/blog/2016/08/22/maybe-we-do-not-live-in-a-simulation-the-resolution-conundrum/

  95. Gravatar of Tom Brown Tom Brown
    9. October 2016 at 02:40

    https://www.rawstory.com/2016/10/he-was-relentless-former-business-partner-tells-horrific-story-about-trumps-attempt-to-rape-her/

    http://lawnewz.com/high-profile/federal-judge-orders-hearing-in-donald-trump-rape-lawsuit-case/

  96. Gravatar of Scott Freelander Scott Freelander
    9. October 2016 at 05:37

    When I think of Hillary Clinton’s “deplorables” comment, I increasingly scratch my head. What did she mean, half? They’re all deplorables. The Republican Party has simply become the sewer for all the worst sorts of human waste imaginable. It’s literally the anti-civilization party.

    Trump, Herman Cain, Roger Ailes, Dennis Hastert, Mark Foley, and on and on…

    It’s a party full of sexual harassers and assaulters, if not outright rapists, grifters of all stripes, warmongers, religious kooks, paranoid conspiracy theorists, anti-science morons, anti-intellectuals, xenophobes, bigots of all stripes, general ignoramuses, personality disorders of all stripes, closeted anti-gay gays and bisexual, fascists, corporatists, gun nuts,…

    Did I leave any scum out?

  97. Gravatar of Scott Freelander Scott Freelander
    9. October 2016 at 05:42

    The deplorables who donate to their Super Pacs are almost invariably ripped off, especially those who donate to any Trump or Sarah Palin efforts, where most of the money goes into the pockets of the thieves who run them.

  98. Gravatar of Patrick R. Sullivan Patrick R. Sullivan
    9. October 2016 at 05:50

    Add Scott Adams to the list (at least he makes sense);

    http://blog.dilbert.com/post/151552548531/why-i-endorse-gary-johnson-this-week

    ————-quote———-
    Clinton supporters have been telling me for a few days that any visible support for Trump makes you a supporter of sex abuse. From a persuasion standpoint, that actually makes sense. If people see it that way, that’s the reality you have to deal with. I choose to not be part of that reality so I moved my endorsement to Gary Johnson.

    I encourage all Clinton supporters to do the same, and for the same reason. I don’t know if any of the allegations against the Clinton’s are true, but since we are judging each other on associations, you don’t want to be seen as supporting sex abuse by putting an alleged duo of abusers (the perp and the clean-up crew) into office. I think you will agree that it doesn’t matter if any of the allegations are true, because the stink from a mountain of allegations – many that seem credible to observers – is bad for the national brand too. To even consider putting the Clinton’s back in the White House is an insult to women and every survivor of abuse.

    To be fair, Gary Johnson is a pot head who didn’t know what Allepo was. I call that relatable. A President Johnson administration might bring with it some operational risks, and policy risks, but at least he won’t slime you by association and turn you into some sort of cheerleader for sex abuse in the way you would if you voted for the Clintons or Trump.

    If you take allegations of sex abuse seriously – and you should – vote Johnson. To vote for Clinton or Trump is to be seen by others as an enabler for sexual abuse. I don’t think that’s what anyone had in mind by breaking the glass ceiling. Don’t let it happen to you.
    —————endquote————–

  99. Gravatar of Patrick R. Sullivan Patrick R. Sullivan
    9. October 2016 at 05:58

    ‘It’s a party full of sexual harassers and assaulters, if not outright rapists, grifters of all stripes, warmongers, religious kooks, paranoid conspiracy theorists, anti-science morons, anti-intellectuals, xenophobes, bigots of all stripes, general ignoramuses, personality disorders of all stripes, closeted anti-gay gays and bisexual, fascists, corporatists, gun nuts,…’

    And the same is true of Democrats. Remember JFK and LBJ? How about Pamela Harrington–Courtesan of the Century–she was revered by Democrats for her ability to raise money for them.

    Then there are those with actual blood on their hands like Al Sharpton. Hillary Clinton has had no problems sharing a stage with Al. In the same category; the Black Lives Matter enablers.

  100. Gravatar of Jeff Jeff
    9. October 2016 at 06:37

    Scott Adams says we all knew Trump was like this before Friday. Having the audio evidence will not change anyone’s vote.

    Adams is wrong. Most people don’t actually pay that much attention to politics, so there are a lot of female voters out there to whom these tapes are going to be news. Many fewer of them are now going to vote for Trump than before. On the other side, there aren’t many (any?) voters out there who are now going to vote for Trump because of the tapes.

    Trump was already behind before this. Now he’s further behind. And by all reports, he’s not preparing very much for tonight’s debate, at which he’s certain to face hostile moderators and hostile audience members.

    Meanwhile, even as prominent Republicans publicly disavow Trump, they don’t say a word about Johnson and Weld, thus implicitly supporting Clinton. Johnson is much closer to what the Republicans claim to support than Clinton is, so you have to wonder about this. Maybe it really is all about maintaining the insiders’ positions in a corrupt system.

  101. Gravatar of Jill Jill
    9. October 2016 at 06:45

    Patrick Sullivan said

    “Bill Clinton’s own lawyer, paid to defend his client, conceded on national television that that at least one woman’s claims were true.”

    Citation please.

    Even Scott Adams, who obviously can’t stand the Clintons and would certainly be digging up any slight evidence of crimes by them, says “I don’t know if any of the allegations against the Clintons are true.” If there were any proof, Adams would certainly be citing it.

  102. Gravatar of Scott Freelander Scott Freelander
    9. October 2016 at 06:51

    Jeff,

    Johnson disqualified himself by not only making multiple comments revealing his total ignorance of not only foreign policy, but the news in general, and worse, his total unwillingness to try to improve. He’s not serious about being President, so no one should be serious about him.

    It would be bad enough to not operate within a legitimate foreign policy paradigm, but to not even follow current events?

    There is no serious alternative to Hillary Clinton right now, period.

  103. Gravatar of Scott Freelander Scott Freelander
    9. October 2016 at 06:55

    Jill,

    It’s a waste of time to address these sorts. The “thinking” is clear from the comments. These sorts need to be shunned, not fed.

  104. Gravatar of Jeff Jeff
    9. October 2016 at 07:08

    @Scott Freelander,

    You actually think Donald Trump knows more about foreign policy, economics, or history than Gary Johnson does? Really? So what if Johnson’s not as up on current events as many of us news junkies are? Neither was Ronald Reagan. You don’t need to be a news junkie to be an effective president, you just need some good guiding principles and the courage to stick to them. Johnson has demonstrated both of these attributes, while neither Clinton nor Trump has demonstrated either.

  105. Gravatar of Negation of Ideology Negation of Ideology
    9. October 2016 at 07:15

    Jeff –

    Johnson disqualified himself by saying he’d pardon Snowdon “based on what I know.” And he’s repeated it several times. A U.S. President pardoning a traitor is certainly not “much closer to what the Republicans claim to support”.

    Hilary Clinton is the most conservative and qualified candidate in this race, which is why I’ll be voting for her.

  106. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    9. October 2016 at 07:42

    Engineer and Tom, Of course it makes no difference whether this is a simulation, or not.

    Scott, Yes, the deplorables in the GOP are very different from those feminists in the Democratic Party who ignored Juanita Broaddrick’s rape charge against Bill Clinton, but tell us that “women never lie about these things” when the charges are made against Republicans.

    Also, has there been any polling done of the political affiliation of criminals in prison. I’m curious, are most Dems or Republicans?

    Negation, Snowdon is a hero, who should be pardoned.

  107. Gravatar of Peter Peter
    9. October 2016 at 08:12

    “Ben Stein: Trump must go”

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/ben-stein-trump-must-go/

  108. Gravatar of Jeff Jeff
    9. October 2016 at 08:20

    I agree with Scott about Snowden. And we should stop pursuing Julian Assange as well.

  109. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    9. October 2016 at 10:05

    “Also, has there been any polling done of the political affiliation of criminals in prison. I’m curious, are most Dems or Republicans?”

    -Guess. Who in Virginia wants the felons enfranchised? Who wants them disenfranchised?

    I also agree with Sumner on Snowden, thus disagreeing with both presidential candidates.

    Jacob, election betting markets are worthless and give us no more information than we already knew. Remember Brexit. Remember the market reaction after the South Carolina and Iowa primaries.

    “And that model is generally reluctant to react to new data, by design.”

    -That’s the opposite of the truth. FiveThirtyEight’s NowCast is deliberately fast to react to new data.

    “So yes, it would seem that betting markets believe Clinton has a better chance of winning Utah than Trump has of winning the election.”

    -They are wrong. Remember 1992. What place did Clinton get in Utah with a no candidate winning a majority?

    Utahn economic views are hyper-conservative. IIRC, they’re the only state in the country in which the majority of the 2014 electorate did not want the minimum wage increased at all. Utahns will vote for Trump come November -guaranteed.

  110. Gravatar of Jill Jill
    9. October 2016 at 10:06

    There are always some people who are full of sh#@, on both sides of the political aisle.

    Of course, “women never lie about these things” is a ridiculous statement, regardless of the party of the accused person. Females are more than half the population. So that would be saying that most people never lie about a certain subject. Which is preposterous.

    Also, I wonder how many feminists said “women never lie about these things”? Probably very few. I would never say that and I am a feminist. Nor would any feminist I know say that.

    I agree that Snowden should be pardoned– I think. There are people who claim that he got people killed by outing them. That needs to be considered. But again, this is just an accusation. Making an accusation doesn’t mean it’s true. The accusation could possibly be falsely made by CIA/NSA etc. employees who want Snowden punished for their own reasons, unrelated to whether his leaks got anyone killed or not. Like the intelligence services saying there were WMD in Iraq.

  111. Gravatar of Scott Freelander Scott Freelander
    9. October 2016 at 10:38

    Scott,

    Are you saying you think Broaddrick’s rape allegation is credible? I just want to get it straight. I hope you wouldn’t make reckless comments that might smear a former US President.

    I find problems with Broaddrick’s current claim. For one, in an affidavit filed in the Paula Jones lawsuit against Bill Clinton, Broaddrick denied Clinton ever did anything inappropriate to her.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/special/clinton/stories/affidavit122398.htm

    Then, there is this recent Tweet from Broaddrick:

    “Hillary calls Trump’s remarks “horrific” while she lives with and protects a “Rapist”. Her actions are horrific.”

    https://twitter.com/atensnut/status/784734493471019008

    So, she’s defending Trump’s behavior, which strikes me as suspicious.

    Should I investigate this further?

  112. Gravatar of Jacob Aaron Geller Jacob Aaron Geller
    9. October 2016 at 11:34

    Hi E. Harding,

    “Remember Brexit. Remember the market reaction after the South Carolina and Iowa primaries… Remember 1992.”

    – Remember that the markets are predicting a victory for Trump in Utah… Sorry, I had to say that. The serious response is that if prediction markets are 100% efficient and reliable point estimates of probabilities, the most likely outcome according to the markets *should* be wrong some of the time, precisely because these are probabilities and *not* guarantees. For example, market signals of of a 70% probability *should* be wrong 3 out of 10 times… because that’s what it means to imply a 70% probability. So you can’t just cherry-pick examples where the most likely outcome according to markets didn’t come to pass and claim that that somehow debunks the whole concept of prediction markets — underdog victories are totally consistent with perfectly reliable markets. (Not that I’m claiming they are perfect, but if you want to call them “worthless” you need better evidence than Brexit et al…) And if you’re right and Trump wins Utah, as you very likely are and he very likely will, that’s what the prediction markets predicted anyway now isn’t it…

    “FiveThirtyEight’s NowCast is deliberately fast to react to new data.”

    – FiveThirtyEight has three models. Two of them, the Polls-plus and Polls-only models, are deliberately designed to react slowly to incoming data — that’s how they separate the signal from the noise. The Now-cast is designed to react quickly, which is useful for figuring out how the very most recent events are affecting the race, at the expense of possibly confusing noise with signal… but in any case, the Now-cast literally cannot react to data that it doesn’t have. In Utah all three models are *infinitely* slow, because they have no data relevant to the very most recent events. Again, FiveThirtyEight has very little data to go on in the last 3 weeks, and no data whatsoever for the past week… and then there’s, you know, the last 48 hours. The last three weeks have been awful for Trump, and this week has been abysmal… especially in Utah.

    **********

    Don’t get me wrong, I’m a big fan of FiveThirtyEight’s models and similar models, but they’re not as useful for evaluating Scott’s claim about relative probabilities, because there’s no data to go on at this time. Prediction markets, like all markets, aren’t perfect (partly because of regulation that limits liquidity, volume, and participation), but they’re more useful at this particular moment for this particular question than the Now-cast or any other FiveThirtyEight model.

    PS — I assume you’ll buy shares in a Trump victory in Utah? You know you could generate a return of about 33% in just 4 weeks, if you buy now on PredictIt. Your return will be even better on BetFair (BetFair’s fees are lower but more opaque.)

    PPS — What does Trump think of FiveThirtyEight? He dissed Nate Silver by name the other day, and seems to think the polls are all coming up roses for him… what model is he using? (Nate Silver says of the online polls that Trump cherry-picks, “They’re not even polls… I call them ‘clickers.'”)

    PPPS — If you really want a *super-hyper-reactive* FiveThirtyEight model right now, well, look no further than Nate himself. Uncharacteristically, he has temporarily thrown the models out the window for, in response to the video, and just bluntly stated, “The bottom could fall out for Trump… Let’s not naively insist on taking a wait-and-see approach [538’s M.O.] regarding the events of the past 24 hours…”

  113. Gravatar of Scott Freelander Scott Freelander
    9. October 2016 at 11:47

    Jeff,

    Where did I state any such thing? Gary Johnson is superior to Trump is every respect, save his ability to excite people. But Johnson is clearly unqualified on foreign policy and he’s politically incompetent on the national stage. I say that as someone who recognizes that Johnson would be better for the economy vis-a-vis the federal budget and regulation, and better on civil liberties.

    I don’t think enough people appreciate how disastrous it can be to have our rivals eat our lunch in foreign policy. Hillary Clinton is not very competent on foreign policy, but at least she recognizes that there is an active competition in pursuit of national interests in the world, that it’s important, and that the US still has a vital role to play in contributing to balances of power in various regions. I have to hope she’s learned some important lessons from some catastrophic mistakes she’s made, because as sub-optimal as she is, she’s the best realistic option we have.

  114. Gravatar of Jacob Aaron Geller Jacob Aaron Geller
    9. October 2016 at 13:03

    Hi Scott (Freelander),

    I for one find Paula Broaddrick’s allegation reasonably credible. Not perfect, not totally airtight, but there are no perfect victims, and you have to look at the sum total of the evidence.

    She has a pretty good explanation for the affidavit, which is that she feared the Clinton’s and just didn’t want the attention, until it became unavoidable. Which is understandable.

    We know that the false rape accusation rate is quite low, sub-10%, which is a good place to start when asking whether she’s just lied and made this whole thing up.

    I don’t see how Paula could have benefited in any way from telling a lie. For decades and decades now she’s been telling the exact same story, as privately as she could manage until that became untenable. To what end, if it’s not true, I struggle to imagine.

    What details can be corroborated are corroborated by close friends and her ex-husband.

    If it’s a hoax, then it’s a weirdly elaborate, consistent, and inexplicable hoax.

    She’s been very forthright about the fact that certain aspects of her story make it less credible — the fact that she had been having an affair at the time of the alleged rape, the fact that she didn’t go and get a rape kit done or press charges (it was the 70s and women in the 70s just didn’t think to go and get a rape kit done or press charges, she says), the fact that she did willfully maintain some contact with the Clinton’s in the ensuing years (a surprisingly normal thing for rape victims to do), the fact that no one but she and Bill saw the rape itself (only the immediate aftermath, in her and her friend’s telling), the fact that her husband at the time didn’t notice her busted lip, the fact that she denied the story at first…

    …and I find all of that pretty credible, or at least not un-credible. It’s all consistent with everything we now know (or are slowly coming to realize, collectively) about sexual assault.

    Read Jon Krakauer’s “Missoula,” for example, or the research of David Paoli. This is a thoroughly typical rape story, with the exception of the accuser having later become President of the United States.

    I understand that Bill, unlike Trump, is outwardly very respectful towards women and indeed most people, but it’s very common for rapists to be charming, sweet, polite, otherwise ordinary people outside the act of committing a sexual assault. That detail means a lot less to me than, say, the part of Paula’s story about him biting her lip, a detail corroborated by other women familiar with the Bill.

    On a more bedrock level, in her interviews she has never seemed at all dishonest. She behaves exactly as I would expect if it were true. And if it’s not true, I don’t know why she’d be doing these interviews and saying these things… it’s a really weird thing to do. She seems too normal for that. Unlike, say, Donald Trump, or Hillary Clinton, who I’ve heard enough from not to believe at all about anything.

    …anyway, this will more likely than not become an issue at the debate, now that Trump is retweeting a Twitter account with Paula’s name on it (not sure if it’s really her, but clearly she’s on his radar and if there was ever a time to say that stuff he says he didn’t want to say at the first debate, then now would be the time…).

    Hillary will likely have a canned response to anything Trump throws at her about this, and sooner or later it’ll roll off her back and she’ll win the election handily, if it comes up. But it will (would?) be ugly.

    PS — PredictIt has a market for “Trump will say the name ‘Broaddrick’ at the WUSL debate.” It’s currently at 62%.

  115. Gravatar of Scott Freelander Scott Freelander
    9. October 2016 at 13:45

    Jacob,

    First, you didn’t mention a single reason why Broaddrick’s allegation is credible. Whether Clinton raped her, I can’t know, but I guess I’m old fashioned in that I require evidence to believe someone is guilty. Broaddrick’s never even filed a lawsuit against the Clintons, to my knowledge. If she really has been raped and subsequently harassed, threatened, or otherwise intimidated, why not sue? It’s not as if the burden of evidence is high in civil cases. She could conceivably get a settlement just for going away.

    Second, she’s clearly partisan and if you read her Twitter feed, she’s excusing Trump’s admitted regular habit of sexually assaulting women while condemning the Clintons. Her lack of consistency raises suspicions, to say the least.

    Third,she mentioned nothing about any of this until AFTER Clinton was impeached, which was AFTER Ken Starr’s exhaustive and expensive investigation of the Clintons. Despite all of the investigations, no criminal charges have been filed and no lawsuits have succeeded. The Clintons might be the two most highly investigated people over the past 25 years, and the fact that no criminal charges or successful lawsuits have resulted is probably telling.

    Fourth, we know for a fact that many allegations against the Clintons over the years were not even brought in good faith. Troopergate is an example.

  116. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    9. October 2016 at 14:10

    Jill, You may not be old enough to recall the debates over people like Anita Hill. I do.

    Her charges were far less credible that Juanita Broaddrick’s, and yet almost all feminists believed her, but not Broaddrick. Politics takes 30 points off IQs, including mine.

    Scott, See my reply to Jill. Look, I’m not going to fully accept any charge unless they are convicted in a court of law. Even the former House speaker was never convicted of child molesting, so we don’t know for sure. If you are asking me if it’s more than 50-50, then yes, I think she’s probably telling the truth, but I’m far from certain.

    (And I’m someone who opposed impeachment of Clinton, despite knowing of this charge. Many Dems I talk to are in a such a cocoon that they’d never even heard the charge.)

    Jacob, As usual, you have the best comments.

  117. Gravatar of Scott Freelander Scott Freelander
    9. October 2016 at 15:07

    Scott,

    What makes you think it’s more likely than not that Broaddrick’s telling the truth about Clinton raping her?

  118. Gravatar of Jill Jill
    9. October 2016 at 16:46

    Scott F
    Scott S admits:
    “Politics takes 30 points off IQs, including mine.”

    So apparently being a Republican makes him think that.

    I did believe Anita Hill and still do.

    And I don’t believe Juanita Broderick. Perhaps it’s because I am Left of Center– and because it seems obvious to me that the party who got us into a bloody expensive war in Iraq, on the basis of lies about WMD, and got plenty of people killed– the operatives of that party certainly wouldn’t flinch at the thought of doing such a comparatively minor crime as paying someone to make claims of sexual assault against a political enemy of theirs. But they are smooth operators, so if they did it, they would invent a darn good fiction narrative for her to tell, and would give her acting lessons before she told it. So I can sort of understand why Republicans would believe it.

  119. Gravatar of Scott Freelander Scott Freelander
    9. October 2016 at 17:00

    Jill,

    Scott’s not a Republican. He recently announced he’s a Libertarian.

    I find it interesting that Scott brought up the example of Anita Hill, when her testimony didn’t even prevent Clarence Thomas from being confirmed as a Supreme Court judge in a Democratic Senate. I have no idea how it’s a relevant example at all.

    I’m agnostic on the Broaddrick allegations, but there are reasons to doubt her claims and two other women leveled such claims against Clinton that had little credibility. Paula Jones, for example, couldn’t even get her civil case against Clinton to court. The case was dismissed outright. And Jones didn’t even claim rape.

    Lots of false claims have been piled on the Clintons over the years and a minute of research immediately led me to doubts about Broaddrick. Also, the fact that she supports Trump now, even after that video and allegations consistent with claims he makes in that video mean she is a deplorable too.

    I’m interested to see what evidence Scott cites to support a belief that it is more likely than not that Clinton raped Broaddrick.

  120. Gravatar of Jill Jill
    9. October 2016 at 17:05

    Anita Hill did not decide to run over to the court, eager to make her charges. The court called her– and assured her that her affadavit would be kept private. And then it was leaked to the press.

    http://www.alternet.org/media/hbos-confirmation-joe-bidens-darkest-day-vilification-anita-hill

  121. Gravatar of Jill Jill
    9. October 2016 at 17:06

    “affidavit” I meant to type.

  122. Gravatar of Jill Jill
    9. October 2016 at 17:07

    Scott F. A libertarian? A libertarian is a Republican who smokes marijuana. Or so I have read.

  123. Gravatar of Jill Jill
    9. October 2016 at 17:11

    Republicans have been bashing the Clintons 24/7/365, complete with claims that just about every person who ever dies, who is in their social or political circles, was murdered by them, LOL. Some incredibly ridiculous stuff. It makes you very skeptical of claims made against them without evidence.

  124. Gravatar of Jill Jill
    9. October 2016 at 18:11

    Libertarians I have been around always agree with Republicans on 95% of issues.

  125. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    9. October 2016 at 19:41

    Scott, I think most such accusations are true. Other commenters discuss all the boring details that I have no interest in getting into.

    Jill, You are just proving my point about how politics makes one stupid. Why don’t you take a deep breath and not comment so much. You’ve left about a dozen comments this evening–do you think our readers have any interest in your middle-brow, conventional wisdom comments on politics?

    And no, I’m not a Republican. Just stop making a fool of yourself.

  126. Gravatar of Jill Jill
    9. October 2016 at 19:59

    It’s your board. I know a lot of Republican/Libertarian bloggers want a Right Wing bubble for their comment section, so am not surprised that you are that way too. Bye.

  127. Gravatar of Peter Peter
    9. October 2016 at 21:22

    GOP strategist: Trump should drop out of ‘the human race’

    http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/300125-gop-strategist-trump-should-drop-out-of-the-human-race

  128. Gravatar of Peter Peter
    9. October 2016 at 22:45

    “Mike Pence cancels N.J. Trump fundraiser scheduled for Monday in Ocean County”

    http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/10/mike_pence_cancels_ocean_county_fundraiser_for_tru.html

    Will Trump complain that his Mike is not working?

  129. Gravatar of Scott Freelander Scott Freelander
    10. October 2016 at 00:33

    Scott,

    It looks like we disagree fundamentally on logic. Unless you can point to more than he said, she said, I don’t know how there’s a reason to have a belief at all about whether Clinton is guilty in this case. I think the fact that she’s enthusiastically supporting Trump, and specifically minimizing his comments about sexually assaulting women, undermines her credibility, in my view. It also doesn’t help that Ken Starr’s investigation didn’t find her assertions compelling, and that she signed a legal affidavit denying Bill Clinton ever treated her inappropriately. She admits she continued helping raise money for Clinton after the alleged rape occurred.

    None of this means she’s lying now, but I would think it at least rules out snap judgements.

    The most compelling evidence in her favor is that a handful of people close to her say she told them Clinton raped her back in ’78, shortly after it happened. But, defenders of Clinton have been quick to point out that at the time, Broaddrick was cheating on her husband and needed a story to help keep her affair secret.

    To claim you have a basis for 50+% belief either way just strikes me as odd. The truth is absolutely indeterminable in this case.

    To believe Clinton’s likely guilty here, just because you think most rape allegations are true is akin to believing a black suspect is more likely guilty, because blacks have a higher crime rate. The logic is exactly the same.

  130. Gravatar of Scott Freelander Scott Freelander
    10. October 2016 at 00:43

    Scott,

    On Jill, I also didn’t care for some of her sloppy comments, but is that worth hurting someone’s feelings over? I’m trying to avoid the personal insults now myself, because I just don’t see a reason to ruin someone’s day over comments I don’t like. I also strive to have the integrity not to type something to someone online that I wouldn’t say to their face.

    Yes, I just referred to Trump supporters as deplorables, because they are. I think there’s a role to play for public shame, but I’m not going to try not to personally insult Trump supporters anymore. In fact, I try not to directly address them at all. I think they should be shunned.

    Ignoring someone is easier than insulting them anyway, and it doesn’t reinforce annoying comments.

  131. Gravatar of Peter Peter
    10. October 2016 at 01:03

    NJ lt. governor breaks with Christie: I won’t vote for Trump

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/300110-nj-lt-governor-breaks-with-christie-i-wont-vote-for

  132. Gravatar of Peter Peter
    10. October 2016 at 04:57

    “In a stunning reversal, theologian pulls back support from Donald Trump”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/acts-of-faith/wp/2016/10/09/in-a-stunning-reversal-theologian-pulls-back-support-from-donald-trump/

  133. Gravatar of Peter Peter
    10. October 2016 at 05:48

    “Miami-Dade’s Republican mayor: I am voting for Clinton”

    http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article107085482.html

  134. Gravatar of Peter Peter
    10. October 2016 at 20:45

    “Powerful Evangelical Women Split From Male Church Leaders to Slam Trump”

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/10/beth-moore-the-christian-women-speaking-out-about-trump-s-bad-news.html

  135. Gravatar of Peter Peter
    10. October 2016 at 21:30

    “Speak Truth to Trump

    Evangelicals, of all people, should not be silent about Donald Trump’s blatant immorality.”

    http://www.christianitytoday.com/ct/2016/october-web-only/speak-truth-to-trump.html

  136. Gravatar of Peter Peter
    10. October 2016 at 22:19

    “Alaska House Majority Leader Latest To #DumpTrump”

    http://midnightsunak.com/2016/10/09/alaska-house-majority-leader-latest-dumptrump/

  137. Gravatar of Peter Peter
    10. October 2016 at 22:27

    “Trump loses support of Lt. Gov. Calley”

    http://www.abc12.com/content/news/Trump-loses-support-of-Lt-Gov-Calley-396581111.html

  138. Gravatar of Peter Peter
    11. October 2016 at 06:37

    “In our opinion: Donald Trump should resign his candidacy”

    http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865664336/In-our-opinion-Donald-Trump-should-resign-his-candidacy.html?pg=all

  139. Gravatar of Peter Peter
    11. October 2016 at 10:07

    “One third the governors and three former nominees: A tally of the ‘unprecedented’ GOP Trump exodus

    The list grows day by day, but here’s what the tally looked like on October 10.

    31% of GOP Senators
    14% of GOP Members of Congress
    29% of sitting Republican governors
    60% of former Republican presidential nominees
    100% of Republican bodybuilder/actor/ex-governors”

    http://news.nationalpost.com/news/world/one-third-the-governors-and-three-former-nominees-a-tally-of-the-unprecedented-gop-trump-exodus

  140. Gravatar of Peter Peter
    12. October 2016 at 22:03

    “Veteran GOP strategist: Trump is a ‘fascist’

    Mac Stipanovich said Wednesday though he does not find Clinton “an ideal candidate by any strike of the imagination,” the alternative, Donald Trump, is “beyond the pale.” ”

    http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/12/politics/mac-stipanovich-hillary-clinton-support/index.html

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