2020 and 2022
Republicans in 2020:
1. Illegal immigration is really bad because laws need to be enforced.
2. The radical left wants to defund the police.
3. Before Covid, Trump gave us 3.5% unemployment—an outstanding labor market!
4. Don’t tell us what we can do with our bodies.
5. Lock her up!
Republicans in 2022:
1. Yes, Trump’s hoarding of documents was technically illegal, but minor crimes don’t matter.
2. Defund the FBI and the tax police.
3. Biden gave us 3.5% unemployment, hence we’re in recession.
4. Ban abortion.
5. Don’t lock him up!
PS. Everyone is asking why Trump seems unable to find good lawyers. I’d like to know why a billionaire can’t find an interior decorator that knows how to choose a non-ugly carpet?
PPS. This FT story caught my eye:
An increasingly insecure Conservative party has also succumbed to myths, the gravest being that of a great liberal conspiracy under which key pillars of society, from the judiciary and the media to the entire “leftist” civil service is conniving to obstruct the elected government. . . .
Alongside this belief in the Protocols of the Elders of Liberalism, two new betrayal myths are abroad among Tories. The first is of the lost leader; the second is the “lockdown lie”. Neither can be allowed to pass by default.
The former, championed by Boris Johnson’s cheerleaders, tells of a Brexit-delivering, Moscow-defying titan unjustly ousted. The myth of the undefeated leader is potent and friends say he believes Tories will soon regret the absence of his “winning touch” once a probable Liz Truss premiership unravels. . . .
Pandemic fantasies have already fuelled anti-vax attitudes and — as with the “war on Whitehall” — lockdown fables are underpinned by adherence to deep state conspiracy theories which sit poorly with the supposedly natural party of government.
So glad I don’t live in a country like the UK, full of deranged conspiracy nuts.
PPPS. Here’s Reason magazine quoting the man who supposedly made up a story about Trump endorsing Chinese concentration camps in order to smear him:
Although “a lot of Trump’s critics have great theories about how he’s gonna use this information to blackmail people,” Bolton said, “I think that gives Trump too much credit. I just think he brought things into his possession thinking…it’d be interesting to look at it later, and that’s how it happened. That doesn’t excuse it. But I think when you overstate your case against Trump, and by really giving him powers and mental ability that doesn’t match the reality, you’re setting up a target that you can’t possibly get to.”
Yup, Trump won’t be going to jail.
Tags:
31. August 2022 at 17:45
TDS Leftists Aug 30, 2022:
Trump’s presidential records are so sensitive and in need of protection, FBI agents were right to seize them from his home.
TDS Leftists Aug 31, 2022:
Nothing wrong with the FBI dumping them all over the floor, taking pictures, because we BlueAnons could post pics of them on social media.
LOL
Good thing Trump declassified all the documents.
31. August 2022 at 18:54
I’m waiting for a spy to be caught with a copy of a document that also happened to be among those at Mar-a-Lago. His defense will be, “Hey, this isn’t classified information. Trump declassified it.”
31. August 2022 at 18:59
BC, Here’s something that will never happen, but I wish would happen. The government takes Trump at his word and releases all the “declassified” documents to the public, with no names covered up with black tape. As a result, US spies are murdered in various foreign locations. This would suck for the spies, but it would be rather instructive for voters.
31. August 2022 at 20:21
You can still go to jail for sharing declassified material (if you are enough of a moron and your lawyers are particularly bad): https://www.wired.com/story/pentagon-data-profit-freedom-information-of-information-act/
1. September 2022 at 12:07
One question I haven’t heard Trump defenders answer is why a former President should have the kinds of documents Trump admits he had in his personal home, after leaving office?
1. September 2022 at 12:28
Sandifer: Do you think it’s a coincidence that this is the first time you have asked this question despite years of Obama and Bush holding classified information in their possession?
You keep asking for “Trump supporters to defend” as if you have already proved a wrongdoing occurred, and the only next step is for the accused to defend themselves and if they don’t then they’re guilty. Communist logic much?
How about instead of starting with an uninformed accusation prompted by your NPC like trust in fake news, why not explain exactly what Trump did wrong, cite the law, and then make an assessment?
I bet you had no clue that none of the statutes cited by the FBI apply to the President of the United States.
The President constitutionally has unilateral authority over the classification of US government information. I bet you didn’t know that either.
There is NOTHING WRONG with former Presidents possessing information, but there is something wrong with HIDING CRIMINAL ACTIVITY using government classification, and the information Trump had is information that implicates the very same FBI unit that raided his home. It’s the same people. Bet you didn’t know that either.
The FBI and DOJ knew since January of this year that Trump was holding documents at his home. That’s why they recommended he lock it up. There was no issue then. The ‘raid’ was to trick gullible morons into having nefarious TDS narrative circulating in their heads, going into the midterm, because what is in those boxes implicates those at the FBI, and other ‘agencies’, in the Russiagate hoax.
The FBI gangsters are not going to willingly release information that implicates them in treason.
Do you think it’s also a coincidence that AG Garland violated the law by ordering the entire DOJ to cease communicating with Congress?
If Trump’s DOJ did that, you and every other NPC liberal would be foaming at your mouths calling Trump a dictator. Biden’s DOJ does it, and you morons cheer on AG’s breaking the law.
1. September 2022 at 13:11
Willing to bet that he won’t go to jail? Or, more loosely, that he won’t be convicted of something?
1. September 2022 at 13:34
Aladdin, Speaking of bad lawyers, his attorneys now suggest the documents were not declassified:
“Movant also agrees that it would be appropriate for the special master to possess a Top Secret/SCI security clearance.”
https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.flsd.618763/gov.uscourts.flsd.618763.58.0_4.pdf
Trump is a nonstop source of (unintentional) humor.
Andrew, I’d guess there’s less than a 5% chance he goes to jail and at most a 20% chance he gets convicted of a crime.
If you are asking whether he should go to jail, the answer is clearly yes.
I don’t do money bets, as it’s too much of a hassle to collect the money if I win.
2. September 2022 at 06:07
The ridiculousness of these conspiracy theories concerning liberals ultimately having such outsized control is exposed in the fact that they have not done a good job of winning elections in the UK since the end of Gordon Brown. Liberals aren’t even close to controlling the government in the UK. It’s fair to blame them for failing to offer a salient political alternative to the conservatives, but otherwise, blaming them for the mess in the UK is silly.
This is akin to the fascists claiming that Jewish people control the media, banking, and many politicians in Europe and elsewhere, despite the fact that Jews were historically so persecuted, even to the point of mass murder. If Jews control so much of what goes on, how could they be so victimized?
2. September 2022 at 09:35
@Scott
“I wish would happen. The government takes Trump at his word and releases all the “declassified” documents to the public, with no names covered up with black tape. As a result, US spies are murdered in various foreign locations. This would suck for the spies, but it would be rather instructive for voters.”
1) HUGE leap to say any of these documents contain any material related to US spies. But I guarantee you if there was, there is no way the FBI/DOJ would keep that quiet, it would have been leaked already.
2) Did you think the Sec. Clinton email fiasco was funny? Just curious since even Director Comey and the FBI assessed that hostile actors gained access to those top-secrete documents held by Clinton’s private email.
3) What is worse- holding damaging top secrete documents under your bed, or on your private email server? I honestly don’t know – but I would guess private email serve for security issues.
The problem is that anyone looking at this objectively can clearly see the treatment of Trump vs the treatment of Clinton is different. The FBI created a standard with the handling of classified documents when they refused to prosecute Clinton/her team. Literally, in the FBIs own admission:
“To be clear, this is not to suggest that in similar circumstances, a person who engaged in this activity would face no consequences. To the contrary, those individuals are often subject to security or administrative sanctions. But that is not what we are deciding now.”
So given this information, you have a huge part of the country that has seen:
1) The FBI refuse to prosecute a Democratic candidate for office, for no reason other than they just decided not to.
2) The FBI coordinate with a major campaign (Clinton Campaign/Steel Dossier) to propagate a stories about an opposing political opposition member. James Comey providing Trump with a briefing on the “Steele Dossier” so that he could then turn around and leak that information to the Washington Post.
3) The FBI work to silence the spread of negative information related to a Democratic candidate for office (Tim Thibault).
4) The head of the CIA (John Brennan) lied to congress under oath with respect to the Trump Russia investigation AND the Clinton teams plans to push that narrative.
The point is there looks like there is a huge double standard for many people looking at the last 6 years. To a lot of people, this looks like a phishing attempt by the FBI and DOJ, and if they come back without a serious allegation, if the best they can come up with is “obstruction”; it’s just so weak.
I hope they find something damaging, I really do. I would love for the narrative to move past Trump as it’s so tiring. But I absolutely understand why a huge part of the country looks at this the way they do.
2. September 2022 at 09:48
Tom, Just out of curiosity, why do you think Trump’s lawyers said the Special Master should have security clearance? After all, 100% of the documents are declassified.
If you don’t have a sense of humor about all of this craziness, there’s really nothing I can say to satisfy you. I mean, Trump just said he’d pardon all the rioters and issue them an apology! How is that not funny?
Hillary? She’s as funny as a scowling schoolmarm.
2. September 2022 at 11:32
@Scott
I won’t pretend to be a legal expert. But my understanding is:
1) The special master is designed to assist the judge/court in a number of different areas. In this case, I believe it is to review documents seized from mar-a-lago to review if executive privileges’ may apply.
2) This has nothing to do with documents being classified vs declassified in the “security clearance” sense.
That statement from Trump is just as funny to be as the current President of the United States saying that MAGA supporters are fascists’ in a speech that his own team called “Unifying”.
2. September 2022 at 11:39
Also, just to add the hilarious nature of all this.
The picture that you have is a staged photo the FBI set up. 😀
Couldn’t write this in a comedy!
2. September 2022 at 17:01
Tom M,
Those pictures released by the FBI are standard for police forces that seize contraband. Just do a google search for drug bust pictures, for example, as I link to below:
https://www.google.com/search?q=drug+bust+pictures&rlz=1C1DIMA_enUS1018US1018&sxsrf=ALiCzsZImRApSzrtbjBayTxczGGUr20AEg:1662166790529&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjFhu3otff5AhXbMVkFHb8SApYQ_AUoAXoECAEQAw&biw=1536&bih=775&dpr=1.25
3. September 2022 at 05:30
Sandifer,
It’s “standard” for the Attorney General (who oversees both DOJ and FBI) to announce to the world that they will “ONLY communicate through the courts”, and then suddenly (obviously staged) photos somehow make it to the press?
3. September 2022 at 08:43
Tom, You need to get a life.
3. September 2022 at 08:52
Scott, nice comeback! My life is fine. Im not the one sweating and losing hair over a boogeyman with orange hair and a bad spray tan haha
3. September 2022 at 14:55
Scott, its a shame you don’t take monetary bets (although I of course respect your decision), but I would push you on the 20% chance he is convicted. It seems he clearly violated 18 usc 793e (espionage) as well as 18 usc 2071 (removal of records), and DOJ has been holding their cards close to the chest on 18 usc 1519 (obstruction via concealment). Depending on what evidence they have on the latter, which given how little they’ve let get into the public, I suspect isn’t bad, it would be hard for Garland to simply forget the whole ordeal.
We’ll see whether your skepticism is warranted, although I certainly hope it isn’t.
3. September 2022 at 20:40
Tom, you keep defending the former president despite overwheliming evidence that he broke the law and possibly committed treason. Why? Why does this .after to you? Can’t find anyone who shares your believes who hasn’t committed felonies?
3. September 2022 at 21:00
Andrew, I don’t see how they’ll prove intent, at least to the level where all 12 jurors will vote to convict. If Trump were an ordinary person then he’d obviously be headed to jail. But he’s the betting favorite to be the next president—that makes a big difference.
America is not the country it was when Nixon was president, we are now a banana republic.
Aladdin, Tens of millions of Trumpistas share Tom’s beliefs.
4. September 2022 at 04:50
I’m skeptical of the assumption that it’s unlikely that a jury can be selected that will convict Trump.
First, the jury selection process, while imperfect, is perhaps better than commonly perceived.
Second, I think it’s easy to underestimate the difference between jurors processing news from the media and following a judge’s instructions regarding paying attention to a court case, and in deliberations.
Third, I think it’s easy to underestimate the effect of group dynamics during deliberations on verdicts. That said, it’s still possible a pro-Trumper can slide through the selection process with lies and ignore instructions from the judge, but I have more confidence in juries than Scott.
Fourth, it seems that many, many charges can be brought against Trump, not all of which require proving intent beyond a reasonable doubt, and in which, the evidence could likley be crystal clear regarding his guilt.
Fifth, Trump could face charges from the state of Georgia, which did not heavily punish Kemp and Raffensperger in the Republican primaries for refusing to support him in his phony election fraud claims.
Sixth, Predictit has Desantis as a more likely Presidential winner than Trump in 2024.
4. September 2022 at 08:02
“Predictit has Desantis as a more likely Presidential winner than Trump in 2024.”
That and $2.50 will buy you a cup of coffee. Gov. DeSantis may well run for the 2024 nomination, but he will take care not actually to win it. It would be a poison chalice for anyone other than Donald Trump this time around.
Everyone knows what an egomaniac Mr. Trump is. If Gov. DeSantis were to defeat Mr. Trump for the nomination, Gov. DeSantis knows that Mr. Trump would have no hesitation about decrying the nomination contest as “rigged” and running an independent campaign in the general. This would split the Republican vote so badly that Gov. DeSantis would lose the electoral votes of all but the reddest states. The Democrat would likely even win Florida, with the FL Republican vote split between DeSantis and Trump.
Precisely because Gov. DeSantis knows how it would end if he were to beat Mr. Trump for the nomination, Gov. DeSantis will take care not to let that happen. If Gov. DeSantis runs in 2024 and comes in second, he will be positioned just like Gov. Romney was after Sen. McCain’s 2008 loss to Sen. Obama. That is Gov. DeSantis’ real goal right now—to set himself up as the presumptive GOP nominee for 2028.
4. September 2022 at 08:14
Greg DeLassus,
I don’t think Trump can win a general election anymore anyway. One reason Biden beat him is that there were some swing voters who voted for Trump the first time, but refused to do so a second time. I don’t see how anything that has transpired or will likely transpire will help Trump get voters like that back.
In fact, Sarah Longwell posted a Focus Group podcast last week in which she shares snippets of answers to questions and comments from a focus group of just such voters from swing states, for what it’s worth. Some of these voters will never support Trump again, despite being right-leaning.
Democrats could make things more difficult for themselves, perhaps by running Biden again, or running nominating Harris, but even that might not be enough to help Trump much.
4. September 2022 at 08:44
Michael Sandifer,
From your lips to God’s own ears. I do not know how many of the swing voters who swung away from Trump in 2020 are game to swing back in 2024, so I cannot agree with your supposition that Mr. Trump cannot win, although I cannot disagree either. I can merely *hope* that you are correct.
My point, however, is not about the general. I am commenting only on the nomination contest. Mr. Trump does not have the power to guarantee a Republican victory in November 2024, but he does have the power to guarantee a Republican loss. For that reason, the party has no real option but to nominate him as their 2024 candidate and hope for Democrats to make gaffes (which is not a wildly implausible bet).
4. September 2022 at 09:03
Michael, You said:
“Fifth, Trump could face charges from the state of Georgia, which did not heavily punish Kemp and Raffensperger in the Republican primaries for refusing to support him in his phony election fraud claims.”
I don’t know if he can be convicted on this, but in an ethical sense this is 100 times worse than the documents. It boggles the mind that Trump pressured Raffensperger to find him thousands more votes, and then punished him when he refused. If that’s not illegal, it should be. Indeed, it’s just as bad as Jan. 6.
“Sixth, Predictit has Desantis as a more likely Presidential winner than Trump in 2024.”
Odd. The sites I look at have Trump way ahead of everyone else.
4. September 2022 at 12:50
Scott,
A few weeks ago I heard a podcast in which a former federal prosector, if I recall correctly, said that Georgia has very strict anti-racketeering laws that are applicable to Trump in this case and that Trump is in a great deal of legal jeopardy there.
Here’s an article focusing on that:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/aug/27/trump-georgia-investigation-grand-jury-election
Another thing working against Trump criminally is that he can’t seem to hire attorneys that are remotely competent. He lately has attorneys working for him with little experience in the relevant areas of law. Stories abound of top law firms turning Trump down as he seeks legal defense. It turns out that expecting lawyers to break the law for you, while refusing to take their advice and then refusing to even pay many of them makes it hard to find representation. And then, there’s the cancel culture aspect. So, there’s no reason to believe Trump will have good legal representation as the charges potentially pile up.
The bottom line for me though on his re-election is, where does he find the votesin a general election? Each new scandal and his crazy reactions to them is costing him supporters. It’s not a flow so much as a drip, but it’s persistent and real. I see no reason to believe he gets many of those votes back.
This even happened with the Jim Jones cult. Each escalation in terms of the craziness and consequences peeled off a few followers. Not every follower drank the Kool-Aid at the end.
5. September 2022 at 08:06
Michael, You said:
“The bottom line for me though on his re-election is, where does he find the votes in a general election?”
Polls show that he does better today than in 2020. What evidence do you have that he’s losing support?
Then consider that the economy is likely to be in worse shape in 2024 than today.
5. September 2022 at 10:21
Scott,
The polling results are somewhat mixed, but I wouldn’t put much stock in current polls anyway.
https://www.newsweek.com/fact-check-donald-trumps-popularity-through-roof-since-fbi-raid-1739488
As many political consultants point out, these media and think tank polls are often done on the cheap, with questionable sampling, etc. And, there is far less polling about Trump’s political prospects outside of his next potential election cycle. Supposedly, the best polling is that done by the actual political campaigns, the results of which are usually not entirely made public, if at all.
I have seen NewsCorp moving away from Trump, with much more negative coverage on Fox, in the WSJ, and even in the NY Post. I’ve read reports of donors turning away. I’ve read about Republican fundraising struggles, some of which are due to Trump sucking up a disproportionate amount of small donor dollars while refusing to share his take. I’ve seen poll numbers dip here and there, though again, I wouldn’t put much stock in them. I’ve also seen the beginning of a Republican backlash against the craziness and extremism of Trump and the Christian nationalists as abortion has become a salient issue and Trumps new scandals emerge. I’ve heard focus group participants state why they turned away from Trump in 2020, and they don’t seem likely to return.
Also, so much can happen between now and November of 2024, that I don’t trust any polls or betting market odds to get predictions correct. It’s one thing to argue the prediction markets will have the best predictions possible. It’s another to think the predictions will even be remotely correct. We don’t even know who the Democrats will run in 2024. Biden is old enough, for example, that he could easily not even be alive in 2024. Same goes for Trump.
And let’s not forget that, even if Trump is getting a boost right now, on net, among his previous supporters, he’s extremely polarizing. There’s no reason to believe he will spur more people to vote for him than against him. He very much remains underwater in terms of approval, as this synthesis of polls suggest, for what its worth, which may not be much.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
8. September 2022 at 03:28
PBS, in March 2015, wrote that “Obama set a new record, again, for withholding freedom of information requests”.
Does that matter?
Better yet, Brittanica on August 26 2022 in an essay entitled “How Top secret is Top Secret” wrote the following “According to the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence, in October 2019 (the most recent year for which data is available), 2,859,877 people were eligible to receive information classified as confidential or secret
They also wrote “ According to the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence, in October 2019 (the most recent year for which data is available), 2,859,877 people were eligible to receive information classified as confidential. Also “An additional 1,384,060 people had top-secret clearance. While the majority of the 4,243,937 individuals with some degree of access to state secrets were government employees, more than 1.3 million were private contractors or were classified as “other.”
So, just how important were these documents? I don’t know, but prima facie it sounds like not that important.
How is this not obvious that this is just another attack on Trump? Again, as I must have written dozens of times, there is a difference between disliking a President for any reason one can think of——which I do all the time——but translating this into a non-stop attempt at criminalizing a president is the worst precedent I can think of.
While I am at it——who is President now? And what’s his schtick? Assuming he has no dementia——could there be a more bizarre character to hold this office? If he has dementia, what is with the democrat party?
To continue in the “while I am at it mode” , how many readers believe our election process of 2020 should be repeated? In other words, was this process as fair as any other? How many are indifferent? Just curious.
Does anyone think a good political science study would be an analysis of why 68% of Trump voters voted in person—-while 42% of Biden voters voted in person. Check out Pew research on this. As surprising, age, ethnicity, education did have different percents, ——but all had similar directional results.
How is this not interesting? And why was that never brought up?
It’s a question not an accusation. My own view is IF the Dems cheated it is the GOP’s fault for letting them. Biden won—-still who likes the Covid vote method?
8. September 2022 at 03:47
PS—-is it really that expensive to not permit edits?
Re 24’election. Trump lost in 2020. To the most ridiculous candidate imaginable. Again, I don’t care if he lost due to massive cheating or not. He lost and that is the bottom line. If Dems cheated they should have been prepared.
He is also a candidate that draws non-stop accusations. He will also be 78. As of now DeSantis appears like the only other candidate——but it is way too early to tell. Once the bright lights come on we see who these people really are.
Trump enjoys fighting more than winning. Even as he as been ridiculously attacked. While as any moron could have predicted, me included, we have for a year plus been reading how DeSantis is “worse than Trump”. Oddly, that could help him.
DeSantis might be as boring as Jeb once he steps on the national stage. In my ideal world, he will be persuasive and supported by Trump——but as of now that is a fantasy.
Trump needs to smooth out just a bit—-sort of like lowering his volatility from 25 to 15.
However, who do th
8. September 2022 at 03:48
However, who do the Dems have? As of now, no one.
8. September 2022 at 05:09
Michael Rulle:
“Again, I don’t care if he lost due to massive cheating or not.”
Fortunately for our children and their children, and their children’s children and everyone’s children and their children’s children, there are good people out there who do care about election integrity and are doing something about it, so that you and your family can live free from a CCP/Soviet/Nazi style dictatorship.
(BTW, Trump won the 2020 election. Simply redefining the word ‘win’ as ‘who can cheat better and get away with it’ doesn’t make it so)
8. September 2022 at 05:43
Many of us struggle to understand how it’s not obvious that Trump and all his ilk are serial criminals. These are people who obviously have zero respect for the law. Instead, many Trump supporters seem to think that every institution is corrupt beyond redemption, and are attacking the only true patriots in the country.
I point out that Trump’s legal problems existed for years before he ever ran for President. The Trump University scam made news for years before 2015, as did suspicions regarding his scam charity foundation. If he’d run such scams, why be skeptical of claims that he’s still running scams, especially when he always tells so many obvious lies?
American institutions are not nearly as corrupt as those in most other countries, though corruption is a problem. But, the corruption is mostly not hidden. It mostly exists through campaign donations and “good ole boy” networks. It’s only the fact that such campaign donations are legal in the US that’s unusual.
The American judicial system, while not perfect, is mostly trustworthy. Yet, character assassination attempts against Democrats like Obama and Clinton have some considerable success. If these people are criminals, why no indictments? It’s not because the system is rigged. Sure, Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server was stupid, and should be illegal, but Republicans never raised the issue of Collin Powell also using a private server (AOL). Should Clinton and Powell have been locked up, or is there a role for presecutorial discretion?
Trump openly commits crimes, whether it’s inciting violence, or admitting that he urged Comey to drop the Russia investigation. For a President to even raise the issue of an investigation with an FBI director overseeing it is at least flirting with obstruction of justice.
Trump Jr. and Trump’s campaign manager Manafort both met with a woman who claimed to be a representative of Putin’s government to try to get dirt on Hillary Clinton. All involved publicly admitted this happened. This doesn’t seem to disturb Trump supporters at all. Do they think Putin would help a US candidate win without expecting something in return? At the very least, one would think Putin would want kompromat.
Then, you have multiple members of Trump’s campaign convicted of felonies, often after confessing to their crimes, and yet there were claims of persecution against Trump and his administration. This includes 2 campaign managers, and chief strategist Steve Bannon.
I could go on talking about Trump crimes and scandals all day, including his recorded calls with the Governor and Secretary of State of Georgia, in which Trump is trying to convince them to change vote counts.
This is why those of us who know Trump belongs in prison often think Trump supporters are some combination of ignorant, stupid, crazy, and disingenuous.