Update on how to donate to iPredict

Update:  I received this information, which may help answer some donor queries:

The U.S. Friends of Victoria University of Wellington, Inc. (“US Friends”) is an approved 501(c)(3) charity incorporated in 1995 as a supporting organization of Victoria University. US Friends is required by applicable law to maintain its independence regarding the causes it supports.  However, US Friends will consider and be responsive to the wishes of contributors who have indicated any preference with respect to the application of their donated funds, where consistent with its charitable purposes.

The Directors have determined that in principle the NGDP project is consistent with the charitable purposes of US Friends.

AFAIK, this is the standard approach of any charitable organization.

I’ve been so busy at school I lost track of the donation process for the NGDP futures market.  In addition there were some bureaucratic errors on the other end, and hence many donors were not contacted about where to send the money, while others had their donation go through.  My apologies.  Below is the information necessary to complete your donation (and please note the email address for queries:  us-friends@vuw.ac.nz):

U.S. Friends of Victoria University of Wellington Inc. (“US Friends”) is an independent U.S. non-profit organization with tax exempt status under section 501(c)(3) of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. It was established to provide support for the work of the University using donations received from U.S. residents and taxpayers. US Friends performs a crucial role in raising funds from alumni of Victoria and other supporters based in the United States.

Board of Directors of the US Friends:
Yvonne Y.F. Chan (President)
Alexander Blades (Secretary)
James Genever (Treasurer)
Peter Bryant
Professor Roger Clark
Mark Cook
Gerald Hensley
Fleur Knowsley
Erica McLean

U.S. taxpayers’ donations to the US Friends are tax deductible in the United States of America to the full extent permitted by the Internal Revenue Service under applicable law and can be sent as follows:

Payment by check in US dollars:

Payable to the U.S. Friends of Victoria University of Wellington Inc.
Please provide also a short letter including your name and address mentioning “donation for VUW iPredict NGDP project” and do not forget to enclose it with your check so we can thank you and send you a formal tax receipt.

Send to:
Jennifer Elmes
US Friends of Victoria University of Wellington
Chapel & York Ltd
1000 N West Street
Suite 1200
Wilmington, DE 19801

Electronic payments:

US Friends can receive US Dollar payments via wire, SWIFT, direct payment from your internet banking (ACH) or PayPal (including credit/debit card transactions).

For these options, please email to us-friends@vuw.ac.nz to request further instructions. Please mention in the email text “donation for VUW iPredict NGDP project” and preferred payment method. We will also need your name and address so we can thank you and mail you a formal tax receipt.

Any questions :
Please email to us-friends@vuw.ac.nz
In the US phone James Genever +1-646-596-7343 or in NZ Shelagh Murray Executive Director of the Development Office and Foundation at Victoria University + 64-4-463-5991.


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30 Responses to “Update on how to donate to iPredict”

  1. Gravatar of TallDave TallDave
    9. December 2014 at 12:25

    Interesting that oil prices may do for the economy what the Fed has been failing to do (assuming of course they don’t decide they need to tighten monetary policy to miss their targets low again). Three cheers for opportunistic reflation!

  2. Gravatar of Edward Edward
    10. December 2014 at 09:31

    Interesting article from noah smith, Scott

    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-10/sometimes-markets-are-stupid

    Your Response?

  3. Gravatar of Major.Freedom Major.Freedom
    10. December 2014 at 10:15

    More than sometimes Noah is stupid.

    Having a silly standard in one’s head such as EMH, and then noticing that reality doesn’t quite live up to it, for the stupid person is treated as a failure of reality, not the stupid person’s model.

    Markets are not stupid. Markets are not smart either. Markets don’t think or feel. Markets are not an organic life form with a consciousness. Markets are a particular process of human interaction.

    Material market information for one individual investor INCLUDES other investor’s beliefs and knowledge that have not or cannot be acted upon such that prices concomitantly change.

    If I had the belief in 2007 that the stock market would collapse during 2008, it would have been practically impossible for me to act on that knowledge in such a way that the stock market actually collapses at the time I thought it would collapse in 2008. The reason why it didn’t is because other investors did not share what I believed. Diverse expectations make it impossible for there to be “the market’s expectations”. There are only individual investor expectations. Some are right, some are wrong.

  4. Gravatar of Michael Byrnes Michael Byrnes
    10. December 2014 at 16:43

    OT: Here’s a post from Krugman called “Jean-Claude Yellen”.

  5. Gravatar of Michael Byrnes Michael Byrnes
    10. December 2014 at 16:44

    OT: Here’s a post from Krugman called “Jean-Claude Yellen”.

    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/12/10/jean-claude-yellen/?module=BlogPost-ReadMore&version=Blog%20Main&action=Click&contentCollection=Opinion&pgtype=Blogs&region=Body#more-37837

  6. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    10. December 2014 at 18:10

    Edward, No response, it seems like a reasonable post, although I know little about the issue.

    Michael, Reasonable post, but the focus today should be on the REGIME. Whether or not the Fed raises rates in 2015 is far less important that the regime they plan to follow. The Fed needs to tell us its PLAN. What is the PLAN?? Will they do more level targeting next time they screw up, or not? The focus should be on preventing the next fiasco, not getting the perfect recovery.

  7. Gravatar of Becky Hargrove Becky Hargrove
    11. December 2014 at 06:57

    Might a test of IOR be the extent of their “plan”?
    http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/12/11/bank-of-america-says-fed-needs-to-test-interest-on-reserves-power/?mod=WSJBlog

  8. Gravatar of TravisV TravisV
    11. December 2014 at 10:00

    Barry Eichengreen:

    “The European Central Bank is moving, hesitantly but ineluctably, toward quantitative easing. The threat of deflation – and the ineffectiveness of its previous measures – leaves it no choice. The question is whether the ECB will be able to move quickly enough.”

    http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ecb-quantitative-easing-by-barry-eichengreen-2014-12

  9. Gravatar of Stev Stev
    11. December 2014 at 14:30

    The Austrian zombies are out in force tonight:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-11/fed-bubble-bursts-in-550-billion-of-energy-debt-credit-markets.html

  10. Gravatar of TravisV TravisV
    11. December 2014 at 15:03

    Video: Elizabeth Warren and Paul Krugman on monetary policy:

    http://www.epi.org/event/managing-the-economy-main-street-wall-street-and-the-federal-reserve

    Unfortunately, I haven’t seen it yet…..

  11. Gravatar of Ray Lopez Ray Lopez
    11. December 2014 at 19:29

    At some point–and I’ll watch for it, no need to reply–the status of the iPredict market would be nice. I was thinking of setting up an account at iPredict so I could trade on NGDP futures.

  12. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    12. December 2014 at 05:57

    Ray, It’s taking longer than I expected, but it will happen. Hypermind will actually happen sooner, probably within a few weeks.

  13. Gravatar of TallDave TallDave
    12. December 2014 at 10:31

    So this is somewhat astounding: bottom quintile households have .46 workers (I assume that means about 20 hours a week of work) and $30K in income (7600) plus transfers (22900).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_programs_in_the_United_States

    So when we ask “would you rather have $20K in 1964 or $20K in 1964?” it not only matters quite a bit whether you’re talking about income vs consumption, HH consumption levels below $30K probably aren’t very relevant because of the assistance floor.

  14. Gravatar of TallDave TallDave
    12. December 2014 at 10:32

    Sorry, apparently .46 workers means workers of any amount of hours.

  15. Gravatar of TallDave TallDave
    12. December 2014 at 10:34

    argh sorry “would you rather have $20K in 1964 or $20K in 2014?”

  16. Gravatar of Adam Platt Adam Platt
    12. December 2014 at 15:53

    10-year Treasury bond yields are plunging as the Fed ends QE and seems to be preparing the market for surprisingly quick rate rises. Everybody except for Market Monetarists should be baffled by the coinciding of these events.

  17. Gravatar of Adam Platt Adam Platt
    12. December 2014 at 16:02

    TallDave, thanks for posting the Warren/Krugman link. I just watched them and basically I learned that:

    1. Elizabeth Warren doesn’t understand basic finance (or what a tax inversion deal is) and thinks anything that reminds her of Wall Street = bad; and

    2. Paul Krugman is rightly against the Fed raising interest rates because the risks of being too hawkish are greater than the risks of being too dovish, but doesn’t have a solid grasp of why. That is understandable, as his ideological framework doesn’t really provide a consistent picture of when the economy is healthy. He seems to have some concept that there’s a correlation between monetary policy and unemployment, but doesn’t seem to understand why.

  18. Gravatar of Adam Platt Adam Platt
    12. December 2014 at 16:09

    …aside from the stickyness of wages, which is only part of the story.

  19. Gravatar of TravisV TravisV
    12. December 2014 at 20:07

    Noah Smith:

    “Krugman Gets the Big Picture Right”

    “Krugman is probably right that IS-LM models explain the past as well as anything else we’ve got. Cochrane is right to demand that IS-LM be tested against the data, but so far those tests have turned out favorably. On the other hand, if you think the Lucas critique is a big deal — as most academic macroeconomists do, rightly or wrongly — then just fitting the facts isn’t enough. You need to explain why those facts will hold up even if the government changes its policies. IS-LM, in its traditional form, doesn’t come with any such explanation. And unless and until it does, academia is unlikely to embrace it.

    As a final note, the Federal Reserve Board still does use something quite a bit like an IS-LM model. For the Fed, at least, the Lucas critique isn’t the only game in town.”

    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-12/krugman-gets-the-big-picture-right

  20. Gravatar of TravisV TravisV
    12. December 2014 at 20:21

    Prof. Sumner on IS-LM in October 2011:

    “Krugman and DeLong mount a chivalrous defense of IS-LM”

    https://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=11277

  21. Gravatar of TravisV TravisV
    12. December 2014 at 20:26

    Noah Smith debates Tyler Cowen on macro (12/3/14):

    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-03/the-canny-case-for-canning-keynes

  22. Gravatar of Steve Steve
    12. December 2014 at 21:27

    I find it interesting that Warren and Krugman gave a joint presentation.

    I have long believed that Warren sits down once a week, with a Starbucks latte and a Sunday Times, and gets her political platform, verbatim, from the Opinion section.

    Has Warren ever advocated a single policy that can’t be traced back to Conscience of a Liberal or ThinkProgress?

  23. Gravatar of James in London James in London
    12. December 2014 at 22:59

    Travis. Thanks for the link to great Sumner post from 2011 on his Nominal GDP Perspective and the uselessness, but still over-use, of IS-LM. Incredibly relevant today.

    The scary thing I see is that with falling LT bond yields and rising expectations of ST yields we are approaching a negative yield curve, the classic predictor of a recession. Of course, NGDP Futures Markets would give us a much clearer steer. Bring them on!

    Google NGDP Futures and it’s all about Sumner these days.

  24. Gravatar of Nick Nick
    13. December 2014 at 04:04

    OT
    Prof Sumner,
    I know you are very busy right now, but would you please take a moment to comment on the further slide in oil / long bond yields. I know you’ve said recently that we can’t tell if the fed is too tight or loose until they tell us what their goal really is. But let’s just say their goal is to maintain trend ngdp growth since 2010. Are we about to fall short of that goal?

  25. Gravatar of James in London James in London
    13. December 2014 at 06:09

    Nick, this as good as anything:
    http://efficientforecast.com/

    Not great, but not too bad either, though trending down. Or, look at the bond market and get depressed, looked at the stock market and cheer up. Look at an NGDP Futures market and …?

    My view is that the economy growing at 3% NGDP, with most of it R is more vulnerable to shocks … And we can all conjure up some of those, but how many ever actually turn into something long-lasting? Not very many at all.

  26. Gravatar of Nick Nick
    13. December 2014 at 06:56

    Thanks James!

  27. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    13. December 2014 at 09:09

    Talldave, Good point–and note that many of those are retired people.

    Adam, See my new post.

    Travis, Nick Rowe says IS-LM is fine, if you assume an upward sloping IS curve. But I doubt that’s Noah’s assumption.

  28. Gravatar of Brian Donohue Brian Donohue
    16. December 2014 at 08:55

    Scott,

    What am I doing wrong:

    Delivery to the following recipient failed permanently:

    usfriends@vuw.ac.nz

    Technical details of permanent failure:
    Google tried to deliver your message, but it was rejected by the server for the recipient domain vuw.ac.nz by vuw.mail.protection.outlook.com. [213.199.154.87].

    The error that the other server returned was:
    550 5.4.1 [usfriends@vuw.ac.nz]: Recipient address rejected: Access denied

  29. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    16. December 2014 at 13:10

    A dash between US and friends

  30. Gravatar of Market-Implied Population Growth Forecasts | Effective Differentials Market-Implied Population Growth Forecasts | Effective Differentials
    14. May 2015 at 19:03

    […] Scott Sumner has written a huge amount about how an NGDP futures market would be an excellent thing. It would give the Fed something to target and allow us to easily get market-implied estimates of the effects of various events on the broader economy, including policy changes. And it looks like he might be successful. […]

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