Two milestones for 2023

Two historic milestones will be reached in 2023. For the first time in many centuries, India’s population will exceed that of China. In addition, China’s population will begin declining in 2023. During the latter part of this century, India’s working age population will likely be at least twice as large as China’s. By that time, India will likely have the world’s largest economy, with the US falling back to number three.

The Economist produced a useful graphical presentation of this historic moment:

Of course, there could be surprises ahead. But in recent years, the demographic surprises in East Asia have been to the downside, with birthrates falling much faster than expected.



6 Responses to “Two milestones for 2023”

  1. Gravatar of Brett Brett
    6. January 2023 at 13:11

    Wild to think that China’s population could crash to less than half of what it is by 2100. I suppose they’re at least not as bad as South Korea, where the trendline is for the population to drop to less than one-third of what it is now by 2100 (South Korea would effectively become the city-state of Seoul).

    Granted, that’s far enough out that things get weird. Maybe we’ll all be living to 500 by then, or some such thing.

  2. Gravatar of ChrisA ChrisA
    6. January 2023 at 13:26

    I predict that by about 2027 the US media will be full of stories about how India now represents a threat to the world and the US needs a strategic response to avoid being marginalized. We saw it with Japan in the 1980’s and China in the 2000’s.

  3. Gravatar of Sara Sara
    6. January 2023 at 18:18

    India doesn’t imprison the falun gong and harvest their organs; they also don’t sterilize uighers. I predict, like usual, that your prediction will be wrong.

    In 2027, we’ll still be dealing with babyboomers, like Sumner, raving and ranting hysterically about the republic of Russia, and how that damn federal republic, with a constitution not too disimilar from our own, is “secretly” still a communist country hell bent on world domination, and that the people in Donbas should be exterminated for daring to want self determination, and for choosing the relatively moderate Russia over the woke degenerates in the west. I mean, Russia is looking more and more attractive when you compare to the thuggish neanderthals invading the halls of washington and the halls of university. Sumner’s I.Q. is like 80 points less than Tesla, and 100 points less than Christopher Langan, yet somehow he thinks he should spend his days erecting a behavioral model that explains the human condition, and do so out of an infinite number of variables, while chiming in from time to time on his love for marxist groups like BLM, desire to go to war and sanction everyone who disagrees with him (see his love of bolton), and hatred for decentralized cryptocurrency.

    one hundred and fifty years ago Sumner would not have been given a Ph.D. He wouldn’t have made the cut, because he lacks true genius. In those days, they didn’t have 1000 schools begging for watered down degrees to fill their staffing requirements (e.g, bentley); they actually had extremely high standards, and there were only a few universities and the very top geniuses taught there. Peterson would have made the cut (maybe); certainly scruton and dawkins would, but definetly not Sumner.

    And again, people looking at population size data are weird. It’s grotesque. It’s inhuman. If you are concerned about those things you are insane and definetly shouldn’t be trusted around people and power.

  4. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    6. January 2023 at 22:23

    Chris, Yeah, eventually we’ll turn on India.

  5. Gravatar of Ricardo Ricardo
    10. January 2023 at 03:06

    Surprise. Surprise. Members of the “Sao Paulo forum” in our own congress want to extradite Bolsonaro from Flordia to Brazil where he’ll be sent to the gulags.

    Remember that it was Sumner who said Bolsonaro was a terrorist and that he supported the former drug lord and sao paulo member Lula da Silva.

    Remember that it was Sumner who supported Marxist groups like the CCP and BLM.

    Birds of a feather, flock together.

  6. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    10. January 2023 at 08:57

    Ricardo, Yeah, I’m a big fan of BLM and CCP. LOL, you must be off the meds.

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