Two deaths delayed is one death denied
Back in April, I saw some people making the argument that social distancing is a bad idea. They claimed that it would only delay the inevitable, and that herd immunity was the only plausible endgame. One fewer Covid-19 death today would mean one more death in the future.
We still don’t know many things about Covid-19, but one thing we now know for sure is that this argument is wrong.
Tyler Cowen has a new article pointing to the discovery that progress is being made on treatment:
First, a cheap steroid known as dexamethasone was the first drug shown to reduce death in Covid-19 patients, and the trials proving its effectiveness came from the U.K., with Oxford University playing a prominent role. In one sample, the drug reduced deaths among a vulnerable group by one-third (it is less effective for milder cases). Dexamethasone is now a part of treatment regimens around the world, and even poor countries can afford it.
The WSJ reports:
This month Gilead released more data showing that severely ill patients treated with remdesivir were 62% less likely to die than patients with similar characteristics and disease severity. A separate analysis found that 74.4% of severely ill patients treated with remdesivir recovered within 14 days compared with 59% of a control group.
We have a better idea of how to use ventilators. We know to keep patients on their stomachs. We know better how to protect nursing homes, meaning that relatively more of the infected are young. We are closer to a vaccine; indeed many promising vaccines are making rapid progress.
As a result, the infection fatality rate seems to be falling fast. To be sure, we don’t have precise estimates, mostly due to changes in testing rates. But a great deal of evidence suggests that the death rates actually are much lower than back in April. In a few months, they will be lower still. Social distancing and masks don’t just delay Covid-19 deaths; they also buy enough time to prevent them.
This does not necessarily imply that social distancing is a good idea—perhaps the costs exceed the benefits. But the argument that precautions were doing nothing more than simply delaying deaths has now been proved wrong. That’s one fewer theory that we need to worry about.
PS. This is interesting:
From Argentina to South Africa to New Zealand, countries in the Southern Hemisphere are reporting far lower numbers of influenza and other seasonal respiratory viral infections this year. In some countries, the flu seems to have all but disappeared, a surprise silver lining that health experts attribute to measures to corral the coronavirus, like mask use and restrictions on air travel.
PPS. Trump does really bad things almost every single day. So if I fail to comment on a specific example—say the stunt he’s pulling in Portland—you should not take that as evidence of a lack of outrage.
PPPS. This tweet got me thinking. What if you put 250 woke people into an auditorium and forced them to watch 5 straight hours of old Monty Python episodes. How many would survive the ordeal?
Tags:
22. July 2020 at 16:15
I am woke!
Although born a man, I can claim to be a woman and must be accepted as such.
But… if I act in a way not true to my original culture, I will be accused of false and unforgivable cultural appropriation.
Stay outraged Scott Sumner!
(PS I am against discriminating against anybody who chooses to be trans, or is from any culture, ethnic group, race, religion etc)
PPS maybe it is a matter of geographic location. I find myself outraged at Xi and the CCP. But 3 million Uighers in concentration camps… guys who own book stores in Hong Kong and who disappear…
22. July 2020 at 16:39
Add on–
Thailand which has had great success in reducing C19 (near elimination), has gone to great pains to secure its borders, even deploying its military to do so.
“Immigration officials in Sa Kaeo province, together with border police and the Thai military, have arrested 107 illegal immigrants since yesterday. Sa Kaeo lies about 200 kilometres east of Bangkok at the Cambodian border.
The commander of the Burapha Armed Forces (Tigers of the East) – the nickname of the military clique attached to the 2nd Infantry Division, the Queen’s Guard – ordered military personnel along the border to be on high alert for Cambodians attempting to cross the border without authorisation. Thai authorities and doctors are deeply concerned about Covid-19 potentially being brought across porous land borders into the country.”
—30—
But then, Thais are not the PC-type. A group of 500 Thais might die at a Monty Python marathon…of laughing.
22. July 2020 at 18:32
The theory of the Brontosaurus: it’s tiny at one end, much much bigger in the middle, then tiny again at the other end… That’s it, is it?
22. July 2020 at 18:50
OT but in the blogpark:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jrose/2020/07/22/will-the-economy-crash-if-the-600-federal-unemployment-isnt-extended/#5ade536a35dd
OKY, here is the thinking in a nutshell: The cessation of the unemployment checks will mean households finally face the financial music, and they stop spending. Retailers tumble next, and snowball down to hell from there.
This may be right.
C19 is not a usual economic event. I just don’t see how monetary policy alone can address this situation quickly enough.
This is a job for(fiscal)Superman, as they used to say. Or rather, “Superperson! Or is that, “Super-cisman.”
22. July 2020 at 18:59
How dare clearly marked federal police defend federal property from getting burned to the ground in the cesspool that is Portland.
23. July 2020 at 05:52
Scott,
Totally agree. Those who thought flattening the curve was only about spreading out the progression to avoid overrunning the hospitals, were always missing much of the point. It’s basic crisis management.
BTW, I’m basically woke and I like Monty Python. 5 hours would be a bit much, not because I would be offended, but because it’s 40+ years old and doesn’t hold up as well as you remember.
@nick,
That’s not what’s happening in Portland. Federal police, who are not clearly marked, are driving rental cars (why do you need rental cars if you are right outside the building) around the city arresting people without warrant or charges. They tear-gassed a group of mothers the other night. The mayor and the governor asked them to leave. You need better news. And Portland is not a cesspool.
23. July 2020 at 05:57
@ben,
What about people who just are trans, as opposed to those who “choose to be trans”?
23. July 2020 at 06:05
I also saw a recent study that masks reduce the severity of the covid case if one does catch the disease. That by starting out your case with a lower viral load upfront, the case does not get as severe.
23. July 2020 at 06:14
According to an MIT study the virus can travel 27 feet. The issue with social distancing was the arbitrary 6 feet distance that is clearly ineffective.
And of course, masks are a joke. Almost every viable study shows that cloth masks are no better than putting your hand over your mouth – penetration rate of 97%.
N-95 is slightly more effective – but still has a penetration rate between 40 and 60%.
You cannot expect a govt to save you from a virus. Thailand is the size of Texas. One cannot make a comparison between US and TH. Apples and Oranges.
23. July 2020 at 06:18
@bill,
I’ve read that too. Duration of exposure greatly influences the load as well.
23. July 2020 at 08:15
Nick, You mean this isn’t all a government paid for campaign commercial by Trump? Wow, thanks for enlightening me!
bb, I couldn’t sit through 5 hours either. But at least with you and me it’s not because our morals are offended.
And I suspect you are right about Portland not being a cesspool. I read a bunch of conservative articles about how awful San Francisco was, and when I went there last year I found it to be the most pleasant city in America. Yes, some homeless people, not not enough to detract from the overall impression of the city.
bill, I saw that too.
Joe, You are in way over your head. The fact that the virus “can travel” 27 feet has no bearing on whether 6 foot social distancing is useful. It’s all about odds. Virus concentration drops sharply with distance.
And all the recent research on masks says you are wrong. Try to keep up with recent evidence if you plan to keep commenting here.
23. July 2020 at 08:24
Make them watch something new. What is so politically incorrect about Monty Python today? It is one of the most politically correct (but in parts still watchable) comedy that I know of. Maybe it was politically incorrect 40 or 50 years ago.
Already my teachers thought Monty Python was “so great” and recommended it to their students. You even had to watch it for hours during school lessons. Is there a better definition of politically correct?
George Carlin was politically incorrect. Or Bill Hicks. Even Robin Williams, I guess.
Jimmy Carr, Bill Burr, Louis C.K., Dave Chappelle and the early Jim Jefferies might be more current examples of being politically incorrect. And Jeff Ross of course. Maybe also series like South Park, Family Guy, and so on.
John Cleese now is politically incorrect. Maybe more than back then with Monty Python. I assume that it was different times back then, and that they tore down borders and did pioneering work.
23. July 2020 at 09:46
The quickest route to herd immunity (i.e., do nothing to prevent spread) reminds me of the quickest route to recovery from the financial crisis (i.e., do nothing and let prices fall and hit bottom quickly so prices and the economy will bounce back quickly). There is a certain consistency to the two approaches and, indeed, many of the folks who promoted the latter also promoted the former. Are these folks consistently ahead of the rest of us or are they consistently stupid.
23. July 2020 at 10:21
Scott wrote: “And all the recent research on masks says you are wrong. Try to keep up with recent evidence if you plan to keep commenting here.”
What recent evidence?
23. July 2020 at 10:28
@christian,
My experience is that young woke people will find most comedy funny. If you want to make them uncomfortable, make them watch a John Hughs film. They find Sixteen Candles to be “rapey” and they are shocked that Bender is the hero of Breakfast CLub, while the kid who attempted suicide gets only a slight mention.
Same people think South Park, Sunny, and Archer are hilarious.
23. July 2020 at 11:36
@bb
I doubt very much that they agree with this old but still up-to-date John Cleese speech. It starts around 4:20.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p1ISlncjCbU
My perception is that these “woke” people hardly correspond to the intellectual background of people like John Cleese or Ricky Gervais. It is rather a difference like night and day.
23. July 2020 at 13:41
Todd, The multiple recent studies that show that masks are effective.
bb, But you admit that woke people don’t like seeing worms made fun of, right?
Christian, Yes, Cleese nails it after the 4:30 point in that video.
23. July 2020 at 14:57
@scott,
The worm thing definitely made me laugh.
@chritian,
I polled my woke friends and they all agree that exactly half of what John Cleese said was very funny.
@todd,
Scott’s right that we are learning more about the virus everyday and constantly need to update our priors. The fact that it is likely mostly spread through the air is a game changer. We’re obviously not going to get a controlled experiment, but the data indicates that mask-wearing has a worthwhile effect on controlling the virus. Here are a few links:
https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00818
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342198360_Association_of_country-wide_coronavirus_mortality_with_demographics_testing_lockdowns_and_public_wearing_of_masks_Update_June_15_2020
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext
23. July 2020 at 15:19
Scott,
Sweden’s chief architect to deal with Covid-19 said today:
“The evidence for the use of masks in society is still very weak.” (About 5% of Swedes have been wearing them.)
This is an interesting interview:
https://unherd.com/2020/07/swedens-anders-tegnell-judge-me-in-a-year/
24. July 2020 at 05:46
Scott,
I’m confused by your example in the tweet you cite. The reactions are an example of wokeness? Most of the complaints I’m reading are about the unprofessional nature of the tweet, considering the author is editor of a bioscience journal. That worm mentioned has obviously been an important focus of biological research for decades, as has the fruit fly. Commenters are wondering whether they should publish papers that focus on that worm in that journal, and co-editors are having to respond to this.
24. July 2020 at 09:58
Todd, Sweden has 12 times as many deaths per capita as Norway, so is that the case you really want to cite?
Michael, Not sure if you’re joking . . .
24. July 2020 at 11:41
Scott,
Are you asking whether I’m joking about commenters discussing the unprofessional nature of the post, that some coeditors feeling the need to respond…? Is this good for the journal?
In general, it’s probably a good idea not to post language as a journal editor that would get you fired from most private sector jobs. It’s just common sense.
How are you defining “woke” in this case?
24. July 2020 at 12:14
Scott,
You still aren’t getting the basics of this pandemic. It’s already been a month since the Norwegian government said after a statistical study was done that their lockdown didn’t help and should have followed Sweden’s approach.
In the interview I linked to he says that Sweden’s demographics and longterm care homes have much more in common with the UK and the Netherlands than with Norway.
24. July 2020 at 17:26
[…] finished the piece about 10 days ago. Would I write it somewhat differently today? I would. I found this post by EconLog co-blogger Scott Sumner, published 2 days ago, […]
24. July 2020 at 19:21
Nice blog post with some weird postscripts. Why are you interested in woke Twitter? Seems like it’s just stupid drama that gets amplified by both sides to pull people apart.
24. July 2020 at 19:56
Michael, The guy made a joke about worms. In what universe is that offensive? It’s a JOKE.
Todd, You said:
“It’s already been a month since the Norwegian government said after a statistical study was done that their lockdown didn’t help and should have followed Sweden’s approach.”
No matter how often you lie, it still doesn’t make it true.
ee, I find woke stuff to be funny. How can anyone not find it funny?
24. July 2020 at 21:33
[…] finished the piece about 10 days ago. Would I write it somewhat differently today? I would. I found this post by EconLog co-blogger Scott Sumner, published 2 days ago, […]
24. July 2020 at 21:51
Scott,
I didn’t lie. You are just too lazy to look it up.
25. July 2020 at 01:24
[…] finished the piece about 10 days ago. Would I write it somewhat differently today? I would. I found this post by EconLog co-blogger Scott Sumner, published 2 days ago, […]
25. July 2020 at 03:07
[…] finished the piece about 10 days ago. Would I write it somewhat differently today? I would. I found this post by EconLog co-blogger Scott Sumner, published 2 days ago, […]
25. July 2020 at 04:31
Scott,
Of course that tweet was a joke, and the response to it wasn’t woke. Response had nothing to do with identify politics or other woke issues. It has to do with professional demeanor and the importance of seeming unbiased as a referee.
His joke didn’t offend me, but I wouldn’t have made it, even not being in his position, and I certainly wouldn’t drop an F-bomb in that context.
How many examples should I post here about employs at various levels being immediately fired for using the F-word on Twitter?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/v3b.com/2011/03/guy-who-lost-job-over-chrysler-tweet-speaks-up/
https://www.digitaltrends.com/social-media/teen-gets-fired-twitter-cursing-new-job/
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sciencealert.com/a-woman-lost-a-nasa-scholarship-after-getting-into-twitter-beef-with-a-member-of-nasa-s-space-council/amp
Here’s a whole article at the World Economic Forum about the impact of Twitter behavior on employment:
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/04/swearing-social-media-jobs-employers/
And here’s an anchorman fired for cursing during a broadcast:
https://www.khou.com/mobile/article/news/news-anchor-fired-for-cursing-on-air-gains-fans-on-twitter/285-320998294
That’s all from page one of a Google search.
This has nothing to do with woke culture. Cursing publicly while being associated with a company, government agency, or online journal will cause problems. This has been the case for far longer than American liberals, and indeed America existed.
Doesn’t matter if you or I agree. I’m not offended by the stupid joke, but it was stupid and it is the kind of thing that would get most people fired. Even if uttered in a private company meeting, this would get most fired, or at least subject to a final written warning.
You don’t conduct yourself this way publicly. Why is that?
25. July 2020 at 04:35
Here it is Scott:
Title: “Norway health chief claims coronavirus could have been controlled without lockdown” (The Week, May 28 2020)
Camille Stoltenberg, head of the Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NIPH), says that analysis suggests less restrictive measures would have been sufficient – and has urged the authorities to avoid taking such a heavy-handed approach in the event of a second wave of infections.
In an interview with state broadcaster NRK, Stoltenberg said that Norway “could possibly have achieved the same effects and avoided some of the unfortunate impacts” by not pursuing a full lockdown.
Instead, the reproductive number, or R value, of the virus could have been kept low by “keeping open, but with infection control measures”, she argued.
25. July 2020 at 04:38
Also, consider this: If you ran a journal, would you hire this editor? Perhaps you would, if you thought he would not make such a post again. But, what if he told you he would post like that again? Do you want the problems it’s brought? Do you want the distraction and answering the questions you’d receive? Do you want questions about bias, no matter how stupid they are?
Much easier to just hire someone else. That’s how employers think.
25. July 2020 at 04:58
Imagine a macro journal editor who tweets, “DSGE models are fucking boring, lol.” Or, “VAR papers analysis is fucking boring, lol”
Clearly jocular, yet problematic. How many fewer submissions does the journal get?
25. July 2020 at 06:09
[…] finished the piece about 10 days ago. Would I write it somewhat differently today? I would. I found this post by EconLog co-blogger Scott Sumner, published 2 days ago, […]
25. July 2020 at 06:25
joe,
This is a good video actually showing both the load and the distance of a cough, and the (positive) effectiveness of masks:
Public health officials strongly recommend using face coverings to slow the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), but not all masks are created equal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRwKzuYNB0w
Scott,
That these two sentences come from the same person shows an amazing lack of self awareness:
“Christian, Yes, Cleese nails it after the 4:30 point in that video.” (about the need for enemies)
“PPS. Trump does really bad things almost every single day.”
What did Trump have to do with what you were discussing?
Also, “Nick, You mean this isn’t all a government paid for campaign commercial by Trump?”
I’m not sure it isn’t. It certainly has the same, or greater, effect.
Independents are the largest group out there and most support the feds protecting federal property from the rioters. They also see the video of the riots and that the feds have DHS designations on them. There’s a ‘who am I going to believe, you or my lying eyes” effect going on here. Likely why Trump made up most of the 10 point deficit from a couple weeks ago.
Glad to see you’re taking on the woke silliness.
25. July 2020 at 13:38
[…] finished the piece about 10 days ago. Would I write it somewhat differently today? I would. I found this post by EconLog co-blogger Scott Sumner, published 2 days ago, […]