The French reject Bannonism
Bannonism might be loosely described as left wing economics plus xenophobia and nationalism. Today, French voters rejected that ideology by an overwhelming margin:
Notice that Le Pen’s support was concentrated in the socialist regions in northern France (its rustbelt.)
I found it interesting that so many American conservatives and libertarians seemed sympathetic to Le Pen. Imagine an election where Hillary ran against Jeb Bush. And suppose all their views were the same as now, except that Hillary suddenly became highly xenophobic on trade and immigration. On other issues, she remained well to the left of Jeb. Would that be enough to get many American conservatives to support her? Steve Bannon certainly would, but I doubt many others would follow. Yet when it comes to France, even Donald Trump seemed more sympathetic to Le Pen than Macron, even though Le Pen is far more left wing on economics. Weird.
I said that the French rejected Bannonism, but perhaps Bannonism originated in France:
It is also striking how often Bannon’s rhetoric mirrors that of Marine Le Pen and others associated with the French far right. Take Charles Maurras, a Catholic intellectual and father of extreme right French nationalism who laid the propaganda groundwork for French Nazi collaboration during World War II — an event he welcomed as a “divine surprise.”
Maurras then supported the Vichy administration which helped round up and deport 80,000 Jews and sent them to their deaths in concentration camps. He died in prison after the war.
The long-shunned author is enjoying a renaissance among the French extreme right. In May, Marion Maréchal-Le Pen spoke at the annual meeting of Action Française, a far right movement that dates back to the late 19th century which at one point had Maurras as its chief ideologue. She spoke approvingly of Maurras’ distinction between what he called “le pays légal” (the ‘fake’ legal country) versus “le pays réel,” the authentic country of the people.
It is an idea that has apparently filtered through to Bannon. “We are at the end of the Enlightenment. Have you read Charles Maurras?” Bannon recently asked a French official in Washington, according to a report in Le Figaro.
“I didn’t come to do insignificant things,” Bannon reportedly said about his war against the Washington “establishment.”
“Those people hate us, but we have the people. It is the legal country against the real country. And I am with the real country.”
In another report, France-Amérique magazine said Bannon’s interlocutor had been a French diplomat. It said he had revealed in the conversation that “Maurras was his guru….[and] According to Bannon, Trump represents the flesh-and-blood, natural, real country, pitted against the abstract, far-off, legal country.”
I sometimes get accused of excessive criticism of the Trump administration. If anything, I’ve been far too kind. It will take decades for the GOP to get rid of the stench associated with the events of the past 18 months.
A bad day for Bannon, Trump, Le Pen, and Russia. A very good day for Enlightenment values.
PS. I eagerly await the day when Ivanka does to Donald Trump what Marine did to her dad.
PPS. Don’t know much about history.
PPPS. Rodents, sinking ships, etc.
Tags:
7. May 2017 at 18:08
No tears here on Le Pens’s loss.
On the other hand globalism—as implemented—appears to be a long hoax on the employee classes of developed nations.
I do blame voters who found Bernie Sanders attractive. Trump is morphing into GOP-standard issue, which seems to satisfy the Washington establishment.
Another generation of stagnant wages, declining shares for labor income and higher.House prices ahead?
7. May 2017 at 18:10
Egads—I meant to write “I do not blame voters who found Bernie Sanders attractive”.
7. May 2017 at 18:21
“A very good day for Enlightenment values.”
Which ones? C*ckoldry?
No. A very good day for the establishment.
the plastic man will be bad for France.
I would have preferred Le Pen have been an honest economic conservative. I narrowly preferred her to Fillon, but wished she dropped out before the first round, because she was visibly so unpopular. Now, France has the worst of both worlds.
“And suppose all their views were the same as now, except that Hillary suddenly became highly xenophobic on trade and immigration.”
And Russia and the status of Whites in America. I’m sold.
Here’s my order of preference:
Le Pen
Fillon
Melenchon
the plastic man
F*ck*n’ Make France Great Again!
Trump’s remarks on the Civil War were questionable (Jackson would not have fought for abolition of slavery) but made sense.
I highly like Ann Coulter these days. She’s been VDAREd.
7. May 2017 at 23:07
Undercutting folk such as Le Pen should be the aim. She did notably better than her Dad in the same situation, so the trend suggests more and more alienated voters. Which is the real issue.
7. May 2017 at 23:49
“I found it interesting that so many American conservatives and libertarians seemed sympathetic to Le Pen.”
What libertarian was sympathetic to Le Pen?
I found it interesting that so many allegedly America First nationalists took such an interest in French elections. I thought we weren’t supposed to care about the affairs of countries on the other side of the world, countries that are part of supposedly obsolete globalist organizations like NATO. For self-declared nationalists, nationalists in the US, UK, and France sure seem to take an interest in each other’s countries. It’s almost as if they’re not really nationalists; they actually have a global agenda and are united along some other dimension. I wonder that “dimension” could be…
Before his scandal, mainstream candidate Fillon was considered by many to be the front runner. Maybe a lesson here is that, when the mainstream alternative to the ultra-nationalist candidate gets embroiled in a scandal, instead of denying the seriousness of the scandal, elites should switch their allegiance to someone else that actually meets the minimum ethical standards for office.
8. May 2017 at 00:07
Of late there has been talk of “labor shortages” in the U.S.
Okay, would you believe the financial advice industry has…pending labor shortages?
“The need for an infusion of young financial advisors is urgent and immediate, said Joseph Maugeri, managing director of corporate relations for the Certified Financial Planner (CFP) Board of Standards.
“We have more CFP professionals over the age of 70 than under the age of 30,” he said. “It’s important that firms small and large see this as a problem that will only worsen in the short run….
Moss Adams has estimated that the industry could face a shortfall of more than 200,000 advisors by 2022. Citing research by Cerulli Associates, Financial Advisor reports that the average age of wealth advisors in the U.S is nearly 51, with 43 percent over the age of 55.”
http://www.thinkadvisor.com/2017/03/28/addressing-the-shortage-of-millennial-financial-ad
—-30—-
Okay, so in the popular mind, young folks flock to North Dakota or Texas to brute about in the oilfields, but eschew construction-industry work.
Nor do they like working behind a desk as a certified financial planner?
I wonder if decades of a rapidly expanding labor force has left American employers enfeebled and addicted to cheap and abundant labor.
I gather some industries need to think about, um, raising wages.
You see, if you want attract more labor into your industry, you offer more pay.
If the USA wants to expand its labor force, it could
1) start limiting disability for SSDI and VA applicants
2) limit or eliminate unemployment compensation
3) pay more (or tax labor less)
8. May 2017 at 04:25
‘A very good day for Enlightenment values.’
The Enlightenment created a reaction known as Romanticism which produced some of the best of Western Civilization by such as Goethe, Byron, Shelley, Beethoven, Schubert….
But, as usual, Lorenzo has nailed it.
8. May 2017 at 04:35
For some valuable insights into the political forces alive and well and living in France, one couldn’t do better than A French Village;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Un_village_fran%C3%A7ais
8. May 2017 at 05:02
I believe conservatives and libertarians are more opposed to Macron and his likely political stagnation than they are active supporters of someone like Le Pen. Her economic proposals were outright leftist, which makes the choice very easy. But I think Macron’s strategy, “change from within”, with no parliament support, will fail to deliver meaningful reform, unfortunately. “Englightment values” ? Pls, Prof. Sumner, you can do better than this. There is very little in the economnic structure of Europe that deserve this qualification.
8. May 2017 at 05:30
I’m with you on this. I was really only familiar with Le Pen’s positions on immigration/nationalism until recently. When I looked up her other beliefs, I was surprised at how left-wing they were.
8. May 2017 at 05:34
“And suppose all their views were the same as now, except that Hillary suddenly became highly xenophobic on trade and immigration.”
Don’t forget abortion. And protecting the rights hunting rifle owners.
Also, HRC did shift her position about trade as the primary went on (but certainly not to the extent of Trump/Le Pen).
8. May 2017 at 06:06
On Le Pen,
I’m a bit surprised that so many commenters here never noticed there’s a reason some folks were called national socialists. I’m not trying to be smug here, I am genuinely wondering. The Nazi party’s full name was “National socialist German worker’s party”. National socialist as opposed to, internationalist socialist (remember the socialist international?) It’s “Workers of this country, unite” vs “Workers of all countries, unite”. Mussolini started out as a socialist too.
8. May 2017 at 06:57
@mbka
You are spot on!
@Lorenzo
No, Marine Le Pen is far less objectionable and controversial than her father. E.g. she never publicly denied Holocaust, her father did. Perhaps one of the reason why she received more ballots. Another reason is that Macron was deemed too young and Chirac was more popular with core voters (remember Macron wants to push through a major labour market reform).
@Harding
LOL, sometimes I wish I could visit the parallel universe you live in. Just for the fun of it. I’m white so I should not be enslaved or slain there, right?
8. May 2017 at 08:16
“Bannonism might be loosely described as left wing economics plus xenophobia and nationalism.”
Trump advocated that the US adopt a Canada-like immigration policy. Is that so horrible? The US left is losing their minds over a Canadian like immigration system, but it’s not such a horrific thing in Canada? I suspect Sumner may even agree with a Canadian style selective immigration policy, but he’s too emotional vested in opposing Trump to admit this.
Most of the US “alt-right”, including myself, strongly support market capitalism and economic free trade. And I’ve disliked Bannon’s push in the other direction on this.
If I had to summarize “Bannonism” or the populist trend: it’s a rhetorical revolt against a dominant political narrative consensus. A great quote from Tyler Cowen on this:
“Trump’s main policy is his rhetoric, and his very act of promising to restore control to the “deplorables” is a significant signal of control itself. In essence, Trump supporters are diagnosing America’s problems in terms of deficient discourse in the public sphere, as if they had read George Orwell and the Frankfurt School philosophers on the general topic but are drawing more on alt-right inspirations for the specifics of their critique.”
8. May 2017 at 11:26
Ben, I guess you prefer the non-globalized economies like North Korea to the globalized economies like South Korea. Undoubtedly housing is quite affordable in North Korea, no big CA deficit.
Lorenzo. She lost by 33%. It’s pointless to say she did better than her dad, as they are radically different people. Her dad was a racist and anti-semite, whereas she’s just a run of the mill national socialist.
BC, Go back over the comment sections here.
John, Yeah, at times she makes Bernie Sanders look like Milton Friedman. What surprised me is that she leans socialist on such a wide range of issues, not just a few.
George, Good comment.
Massimo, You said:
“Trump advocated that the US adopt a Canada-like immigration policy. Is that so horrible?”
That’s false. The Canadians are welcoming Syrian refugees while Trump tries to turn them away. The Canadians take in lots of Chinese, which Bannon opposes. Trump is cracking down on H1-b visas.
You said:
“Most of the US “alt-right”, including myself, strongly support market capitalism and economic free trade.”
You obviously know very little about the alt-right.
8. May 2017 at 11:27
Somewhat OT, but the quoted Macron/Le Pen figures always add to 100%. Does anyone know the figures if the denominator is total number of ballots cast (including blank and defaced ballots). I would liked to get a feeling for how many French voted for “none of the above.”
8. May 2017 at 12:03
@pct
It was a bit like the US election: Two candidates many people didn’t like and therefore (?) the lowest turnout since decades. Only this time the runaway favourite Macrillary won.
Or to put it in numbers: 20 million votes for Macrillary, 10 million votes for Le Trump, 4 million blank/null votes and 12 million abstentions.
8. May 2017 at 12:14
@sumner
“That’s false. The Canadians are welcoming Syrian refugees while Trump tries to turn them away. The Canadians take in lots of Chinese, which Bannon opposes. Trump is cracking down on H1-b visas.”
Trump did cite the Canadian immigration system as a model he wants the US to move towards. That’s not false. Google it. This was covered in every major news outlet in late February 2017.
Canadians loudly welcomed a small number of Syrian refugees and made it a big PR event. They received approximately 25k Syrians total according to my Internet searches. That isn’t a lot. And there normal model is still aimed to select towards skilled desirable populations.
Canada does select for Chinese immigration. Bannon did express past opposition regarding Chinese immigration. Maybe he changed his mind or the broader Trump administration disagrees with him. I support larger immigration from China.
8. May 2017 at 13:09
@Massimo
Forget about Scott’s refugee propaganda. He is just being ridiculous here.
I would “welcome” refugees from poor countries (on paper) as well, when my only land border is with the US. And let’s say there’s one refugee that dares to cross this border then this is an “irregular arrival” and you are immediately jailed and have to wallow in indefinite detention centers or maximum security provincial prisons.
Canada accepted 38,000 refugees in 2006, Syria already included. That’s not much. That’s about 20th place amongst relevant Western countries, adjusted for capita. How many relevant Western countries are there? That’s closer to last then to first place.
Nearly half of the refugees came to Canada by private sponsorship. What Trudeau now quietly did was capping this number to a mere one thousand. Very clever. Twitter is one thing, quietly passing laws the other thing.
And that’s just the information you can find in the Guardian. A newspaper that loves Trudeau so much that their noses usually get awfully brown.
8. May 2017 at 13:11
Typo correction: 2006 –> 2016.
8. May 2017 at 13:51
You seem to suggest that Republicans and Libertarians lean in the same direction on economic policy.
I would say that the republicans have been drifting continuously to the left since the Reagan days.
I would but Clinton well to the right of Bush’43 any measure of economic policy. (Free trade, deregulation, Freedom To Farm, balanced budgets, monetary policy over fiscal policy vs. Steel Tariffs, SARBOX, Farm Subsidies, deficits, Keynesian policy over monetary policy).
Bush is to the right of Obama, and so far Trump seems to be somewhere in between Bush and Obama.
8. May 2017 at 14:18
Scott. The markets basically were flat today. While Trump had some pro-business (not pro-market) policies, LePen seems like a disaster all around (no euro, 35 hour work week etc.) Why did the markets fall/remain flat on LePen’s defeat? We can’t really argue that it was priced in last friday because there was still a non-zero chance LePen would somehow win the election.
If markets are somehow failing to anticipate the future in a consistent way, it would be somewhat of a defeat for your Market Monetarism theory.
8. May 2017 at 14:44
What do the beige colored regions mean? Does it mean a draw or does is mean a “third winner” because of blank/null votes and abstentions?
Interesting how the regions around the all the big cities are beige. La France périphérique went for Macron, except for the rust belt. But how did the metropolises and the bobos vote?
@John
You are just too late. The markets reacted right after the Le Pen defeat was clear.
8. May 2017 at 14:49
I think the pieces about Le Pen by Ross Douthat were quite good. Let’s see when the NYT fires him.
8. May 2017 at 17:32
“A bad day for Bannon, Trump, Le Pen, and Russia. A very good day for Enlightenment values.”
Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha [breathes] Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha
“Don’t know much about history.”
Yeah that’s fake news.
Nothing wrong with that quote, the author of the article is imputing a false interpretation. It is very common for long since dead people to develop an increased popularity among later generations. Just look at Saul Alinsky and this blog’s author.
No, that isn’t what Trump said.
Here is what he said:
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/859209801175269376
The US did not need a civil war to abolish slavery, it was abolished all over the world without civil war
Sumner is pro unnecessary war?
—————————
Here is the new “enlightened” France:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3513903/gare-du-nord-evacuated-paris-train-station/
8. May 2017 at 17:34
Sumner wrote:
“You obviously know very little about the alt-right.”
No, YOU know very little about the alt-right. The alt-right is not what fake news radical left wing CIA-WaPo authors write about it.
So clueless
8. May 2017 at 17:35
“I sometimes get accused of excessive criticism of the Trump administration. If anything, I’ve been far too kind.”
Just like Alinsky
When you’re wrong, double down on the wrongyness.
8. May 2017 at 17:40
Easiest way to tell the National Review article is fake news:
Right at the bottom:
“Washington Post Writers Group”
Also, the WaPo recently hired pedophile and murderer John Podesta. They routinely publish CIA propaganda.
Sumner’s choice for news sources is proof he is out of touch and has no clue what is going on in the world around him
8. May 2017 at 17:45
Andrew Jackson had one thing right. Here is what he said about the Second Bank of the United States:
– From the original minutes of the Philadelphia committee of citizens sent to meet with President Jackson (February 1834), according to Andrew Jackson and the Bank of the United States (1928) by Stan V. Henkels.
8. May 2017 at 19:32
“Ben, I guess you prefer the non-globalized economies like North Korea to the globalized economies like South Korea. Undoubtedly housing is quite affordable in North Korea, no big CA deficit.”–Scott Sumner.
Well, no I am not a fan of North Korean macroeconomic management.
On the other hand, all trade and commerce is regulated, nationally and internationally. The U.S. runs large trade deficits, but as a result of “free trade” or as the outcome of heavily regulated commerce and trade negotiations?
Is it cynical to ask if “free trade” proponents (that is, for the status duo) are representing the interests of multinationals more than the interests of the U.S. employees?
Tyler Cowen links to this today:
“For instance, the typical 27-year-old man’s annual earnings in 2013 were 31 percent less than those of a typical 27-year-old man in 1969. The data suggest that today’s young men are unlikely to make up for that decline by earning more in the future.”
That is 31% less, and then consider taxes, and housing costs in cities where property zoning is restarting supply.
I am entirely open to the idea the social welfare state needs to be pared back, and I have often mentioned SSDI and VA disability programs as the place to start.
But if the establishment continues to tilt the playing field against the employee class–through de facto open borders, trade policy and property zoning, and a central bank that targets always having more people looking for work than job openings—I think the Bernie Sanders vote make sense.
Like Tyler Cowen, I ponder the Trump vote. Calling everybody in the Trump camp “stupid” or “racist” does not undo what is happening to employees in the U.S,
Clinton? Really, you have the faintest hope of returning wages to 1969 levels under her? (I think you hit the nail on the head when you described Hillary as Nixonian, except you may have denigrated Nixon.)
Egads! We are talking about trying to obtain for employees the living standards they had 50 years ago!
Are these the fruits of free trade?
Why are not orthodox macroeconomists talking about this, instead jibber-jabbering about inflation?
8. May 2017 at 19:47
Last year, Barack Obama administration turned over $1.7 billion to Iran in two separate transactions. The first instalment was $400 million in hard cash, flown out on a Revolutionary Guard plane in the dark of night. The transfer amounted to partial payment of a ransom of four Iranian-Americans and, when it was uncovered, the Obama administration said it was Iran’s money and it would be used to improve their economy.
The former president said the removal of sanctions, which included the release of these funds, was a goodwill gesture, not a ransom. He also released 21 or more Iranian spies as a goodwill gesture. Congress is now investigating that activity because it is said to have severely damaged his own counter-terrorism unit.
After the transfer, then-secretary of state John Kerry admitted at least some of it would be used for terror.
Barack Obama funded the terror group Hezbollah to the tune of $600 million
8. May 2017 at 19:49
Japan rejects more than 99% of refugee applications
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/japan-refugee-applications-rejected-a7718111.html
Of the 28 they took in, 2 of them gang raped and robbed a woman.
8. May 2017 at 19:51
This is what France voted for
https://i.imgur.com/jMEGkUY.png
8. May 2017 at 19:52
Obama slush fund reminder:
https://i.imgur.com/UQcbTmI.jpg
8. May 2017 at 19:54
Steve Bannon’s former Hollywood partner breaks silence: “He’s Not a Racist”:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/steve-bannons-hollywood-partner-breaks-silence-defends-hes-not-a-racist-q-a-1001006
8. May 2017 at 19:55
Obama DNI Clapper in Congress today: 3 intel agencies not 17 made Russia assessment (after thousands of “journalists” falsely claimed 17)
https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/861665148846657536
8. May 2017 at 20:00
Angela Merkel completed Hitler’s dream of a German dominated Europe
8. May 2017 at 20:09
https://twitter.com/JulianAssange/status/861658062402314242
DNI Clapper just misled or perjured himself to Congress saying that there was no release of Republican data. Proof:
http://archive.is/jmZse
8. May 2017 at 20:27
Sumner, this is what your brand of leftism brings to the country: a return to racial segregation:
http://www.dailywire.com/news/16171/progress-harvard-hold-blacks-only-graduation-amanda-prestigiacomo#
Remind me again about what the alt-right is about?
K thanks
8. May 2017 at 20:28
ACLU Lawyer Says Travel Ban ‘Could Be Constitutional’ if Enacted by Hillary Clinton
http://ntknetwork.com/aclu-lawyer-says-travel-ban-could-be-constitutional-if-enacted-by-hillary-clinton/
8. May 2017 at 20:32
Scott Adams:
“France had a chance to elect a Trump-like candidate, but instead chose a rich, white businessman with no government experience”
https://i.imgur.com/oEtfTXf.png
Meanwhile Sumner called the French election “a very good day for Enlightenment values”.
8. May 2017 at 20:38
It is funny to watch leftists praise Macaroni after criticising Trump. Neither had political experience, yet apparently that’s okay when you’re a leftist but bad when you’re a conservative.
9. May 2017 at 01:54
TC links to this statement:
“…the most egalitarian places, like Utah, tend to be largely Trump-friendly. Among the 10 states (and D.C.) with the most income inequality, seven supported Clinton in 2016, while seven of the 10 most equal states supported Trump.”
–> I suppose in France you will find the the most inequality in Paris and at the Côte d’Azur. So how did they vote? The most interesting parts in the graphic are beige.
9. May 2017 at 05:13
Massimo, You said:
Trump did cite the Canadian immigration system as a model he wants the US to move towards. That’s not false. Google it.”
Oh come on. Trump also said he was going to pay off the entire national debt in 8 years. Surely even you aren’t so clueless that you believe what he says?
John, The market reacted after the first round. This was a foregone conclusion.
Ben, You asked:
“Why are not orthodox macroeconomists talking about this, instead jibber-jabbering about inflation?”
Because they are intelligent?
9. May 2017 at 07:39
From what I read Macron wants to reduce spending by 60 billion euros mostly by cutting officials but when you ask him which officials he wants to cut, he says, well what we actually need is more teachers, more policemen, more social workers, more nurses and 5000 more officials for Frontex. He also wants to spent 15 billion more on education in general, 15 billion more for energy and environment and 5 billion more for agriculture. And taxes shall go way down as well, especially the wealth and corporate tax. He is the miracle man.
He has some correct ideas about deregulations that are long overdue, but French politicians are discussing those ideas since decades, there was never any result, so the question is why this would change with Macron. It just don’t see it happen, because the majority of French people still don’t want those badly needed reforms. Macron is basically standing alone, as soon as he tries relevant reforms there will be massive pressure from the Left and the Right. I make a bold and risky prediction here: Macron leaves his office before the Donald does.
9. May 2017 at 07:55
It’s interesting to point out that Milton Friedman in an interview in Forbe’s Magazine around 2000 denounced the H-1B non-immigrant visa as a subsidy.
9. May 2017 at 12:44
The analysis of Scott is wrong in parts. The French favor left wing economics since decades and will continue to do so.
In the first round the French favored candidates like Le Pen, Mélenchon and Hamon. Politicians who stand for pretty extreme left wing economics. Together they got more votes than Macron easily.
Then there was François Fillon with his Republicans, who are pretty similar to the GOP. They might say that they favor small government but when they rule they pretty much do the opposite.
At the moment we don’t even know what Macron is standing for. It’s dubious how his party could grow so fast anyhow. He founded his party in 2016 and now he is President. Transferring this situation to the US would mean that a candidate without backing of the DP and/or the GOP would win the US Presidency, while the candidates of the GOP and DP would rank #3 and #4 at best.
I doubt that something like this can happen without massive backing of the media and the financial sector and this could simply mean that Macron won’t reform anything relevant ever.
9. May 2017 at 13:22
Macron’s main economic adviser Jean Pisani-Ferry seems to be a pretty strong Keynesian. When you listen to Pisani-Ferry, Macron, and the Economist the problems of France are basically:
1) That they aren’t allowed (in theory) to run a deficit of over 3,0% each year.
2) That they don’t have a huge “investment fund” with Germany, financed by common bonds.
3) That Germany runs a trade deficit.
4) That Germany wrongly (!) believes that its current success was built on reforms in the last decade and that Germany wrongly (!) believes that economies like France should to the same.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/kaffeeklatsch/2017/05/if-macron-fails-germany-fails
9. May 2017 at 15:58
Bannon is not a “xenophobe”, he is welcoming of anyone…with a caveat…they must want to come to this country with love and a desire to work hard, not those who want to degrade women, minorities and gays, and destroy western civilization.
Sumner and his ilk want to risk innocent people’s lives by having unvetted, open immigration. What’s that? He wants to vet immigrants to make sure they don’t want to blow up children? THAT MAKES SUMNER A BANNONITE WITH RESPECT TO IMMIGRATION.
Oh the “Muslim ban”? Nope, it wasn’t a Muslim ban, it was a temporary halt of immigration from only 6 countries which the Obama administration labelled as unsafe and untrustworthy for immigration quality. This temporary travel ban would affect less than 15% of the entire world’s Muslim population.
Sumner is a xenophobe, because he distrusts and fears people who adhere to western values.
9. May 2017 at 16:02
FBI director Comey was fired today by a letter from the current occupant of the White House.
I have seen bets that Comey will show up to work tomorrow because he won’t be able discern intent from that letter.
9. May 2017 at 17:05
And here I thought Trump was low-brow Reaganesque. But now, Nixonian comes to mind….
9. May 2017 at 17:10
Scott Sumner: when wages fall by about one-third over a couple generations, I do not think inflation is the problem.
Interesting question: if wages are set globally, then can US workers become more productive but be paid less?
Does this describe US wages of the last 40 years?
9. May 2017 at 18:56
Benjamin Cole:
I’ll bet you $1 million that you said NOTHING when Bill Clinton fired FBI Director William Sessions on July 20th, 1993
I’ll bet you another $1 million that you were thinking what Schumer and many other leftists were thinking back in the fall of 2016:
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-11-02/schumer-says-he-lost-confidence-in-fbi-s-comey-over-e-mail-probe
Yeah, but NOW firing Comey is “positively Nixonian!!1!!1!”
I thought you would have said that what Trump did was wrong because he first didn’t get permission from a Hawaii judge
9. May 2017 at 19:05
Julian Assange:
“FBI source says the FBI will now start leaking like Niagara.”
Grab your popcorn folks
9. May 2017 at 19:09
4 Democrat congresspeople have come out in the first hour and said the Comey firing is “Nixonian”
The parrots have commented on this blogpost
9. May 2017 at 19:15
This is funny:
Arnold Schwarzenegger admitted in his book “Total Recall” that his letter to the California state assembly was intentionally written so that the first letters of each row spelled out…well you can see what it spelled out:
https://i.imgur.com/kYUsR40.jpg
Now look again at the letter Trump sent to Comey:
https://i.imgur.com/dAUITWl.png
9. May 2017 at 19:29
https://beta.usaspending.gov/#/
https://www.usaspending.gov/Pages/Default.aspx
Treasury Secretary Mnuchin: “the new site provides taxpayers with the ability to track nearly USD in government spending from Washington, DC directly into their communities and cities […] Furthermore, greater access to data will drive better decision making and strengthen accountability and transparency – qualities central to the Administration’s focus on a more innovative and effective government.”
It would have been more accurate if the site was just a .gif of money flowing down a toilet
9. May 2017 at 19:36
Judicial Watch has sued the justice department for Sally Yates’ emails
http://www.judicialwatch.org/press-room/press-releases/judicial-watch-sues-justice-department-sally-yates-emails-served-trump-acting-attorney-general/
“Between her involvement in the Russian surveillance scandal and her lawless effort to thwart President Trump’s immigration executive order, Sally Yates’ short tenure as the acting Attorney General was remarkably troubling,” said Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton. “Her email traffic might provide a window into how the anti-Trump ‘deep state’ abused the Justice Department.”
9. May 2017 at 20:04
Note to Scott Sumner:
If you are still reading,
“5. New and even more shocking results on income stagnation.: “…economists should search for explanations for households’ current financial woes in the youth and childhood of today’s workers. “We are maybe looking at the wrong place for the solution to stagnation in wages and rising inequalities,” Guvenen said. “To understand higher inequality, we should turn and take a closer look at youth.””
The above is from Tyler Cowen. It is a link to WaPo article about young men making 31% less today than in 1969.
Also, Cowen is gingerly in the Market Monetarist camp.
So, I would say there are intelligent economists (not an oxymoron, btw) who are talking more about shrinking real wages and less about inflation.
We just need more Tyler Cowens!
9. May 2017 at 20:10
If a-priori MLP has <1% chance of winning (entirely reasonably given the 65/35 conclusion) then it makes sense why financial markets had zero reaction. On the other hand, most prediction markets were giving her at least 10% on Saturday night, so one of these markets estimated the probabilities wrong (methinks it's the prediction markets). In finance, we would say that prediction markets give us estimates under Q (martingale measure), while the financial markets give us estimates under P (historical measure). In this case, I care about P, so the financial markets got it right (good news).
Now for the bad news. We can argue frictions, but the poor performance of prediction markets in this regard means we probably can't trust just one market to implement NGDP futures targeting, since you're not getting an unbiased prediction of future NGDP. For example, if people really want to hedge labor income shocks by selling NGDP futures, the futures price will be biased downwards relative to ex-poste NGDP. The "longs" in the market will earn a risk premium, but the bias doesn't go away in equilibrium, since some people will pay to hedge. The Fed, acting on just a single market signal (future NGDP too low, therefore buy NGDP futures), would be subsidizing someone's need for a hedge instead of making sure future NGDP (under P!) hits its target. I'm not sure how one would correct for this bias.
9. May 2017 at 23:26
@John
From what I read the Euro reached a new high right after it was clear that Le Pen lost. A similar high was reached when Trump won the election.
After Brexit there wasn’t too much stock market movement either, which makes sense since no one really knows what Brexit and Macron really means for corporations.
10. May 2017 at 16:03
The day after Bill Clinton fired FBI Director William Sessions in July 1993, Vince Foster was found dead.
http://www.commonsenseevaluation.com/2017/05/10/bill-clinton-vince-foster/#sthash.g1OgtVcU.XVgbkVUG.dpbs
10. May 2017 at 19:43
Jordan Peterson said of the general election between Trump and Clinton:
“He had an unstructured problem with the truth, and he was preferred as a candidate to someone with a structured problem of untruth, so pick your type of lie; you could pick the ideology power aiming lie, or a more personal lie, if you’re going to be cynical about it, or maybe a nakedly self-serving lie, it’s like thank God that’s such a relief after the totalitarian ideology lies.”
Ergo Trump
11. May 2017 at 01:53
Following the logic of the last years the next POTUS will be Dwayne Johnson. We had Reagan, Ventura, Schwarzenegger, and Trump. Now it’s time for The Rock.
11. May 2017 at 04:59
Christian, Nothing you said conflicts with my comments on Le Pen.
John, You said:
“We can argue frictions, but the poor performance of prediction markets in this regard means we probably can’t trust just one market to implement NGDP futures targeting, since you’re not getting an unbiased prediction of future NGDP.”
If you plan on commenting on NGDP futures targeting, why not read my actual proposal first? This comment has nothing to do with what I am actually proposing. And no, the French election did not show that there is anything wrong with prediction markets.
11. May 2017 at 08:24
The French election shows a serious problem with using “options-like” (Q measure) instruments to estimate historical probabilities. If the ex-poste distribution of votes is 65/45, then an unbiased prediction market should have given MLP less than 1% chance of winning, while it actually gave her 10-20% a day before the election results. How many historical elections have resulted in a win after the polls show you down at minimum 25 to your opponent? That suggests people were willing to pay a “premium” to gamble on LePen winning. I’m not sure why you resist the idea that prediction markets are biased from “risk premiums.” There’s a wide literature on this (see Fama-French 1987 for bias in commodity futures markets, Snowberg-Wolfers 2010 for longshot bias in gambling markets which was my example)
I’ve read your proposal. Setting lower/upper bounds on NGDP via futures prediction market is fine, but as a practical matter you need to figure out how to adjust for the bias (risk-premium) to set the floor/ceiling appropriately. Let’s say you want ex-poste NGDP growth to be between 4-6%, but there’s some sort of risk premium that drives a wedge between true expected values and those computed through the futures market. If we assume people want to hedge by shorting, it would result in a negative bias for NGDP futures prices (say 2% in this example). If I target 4-6% ex-poste NGDP growth, I need to target 2-4% in the futures market; if I target 4-6% in the futures market, I actually get 6-8% ex-poste due to the risk premium. It’s a implementation problem rather than a theory one.
11. May 2017 at 12:06
Christian, Nothing you said conflicts with my comments on Le Pen.
Scott, I hope you are right.
11. May 2017 at 22:56
“Trump seemed more sympathetic to Le Pen than Macron, even though Le Pen is far more left wing on economics. Weird.”
Trump is not right wing. He’s Trump wing.
12. May 2017 at 06:35
John, No, you would not need to adjust for any risk premium in NGDP futures prices. I discuss that in a number of papers.
And no, there is zero evidence that the predictions markets were wrong in the recent French elections. And you cannot judge odds ex post by looking at outcomes. That’s probability theory 101.
12. May 2017 at 11:18
@Major-Freedom, Absolutely everyone is “xenophobic” and NIMBY. Pro-immigration advocacy tries to stake the moral high ground, but the ulterior motivation is that that their political tribe will gain and rival tribes will lose.
Angela Merkel, arguably the leader and figure head for the welcoming, open, pro refugee pro immigration, and specifically, pro-non-white entry to Europe… Even Merkel, is working to reduce immigration from the Middle East and Africa and discourage and inhibit a much larger wave of human migration from Africa to Europe.
Macron was considered the pro-immigration candidate, but he also advocated aggressive deportation of migrants to their home countries of those who weren’t in danger and immigration restrictions.
On the surface, I prefer Macron over Le Pen on all economics issues. I do prefer Le Pen for her more hard line immigration and cultural stance and as a push back to the ridiculousness of the dominant newspeak-like dialog.
12. May 2017 at 18:27
Massimo,
Nobody who advocates for governmente using tax payer money to ship by the boatloads talentless welfare collecting immigrants has ever explained what the right number of refugees and immigrants to ship in.
The justification is always about morality plays, but there are billions of people in the world living in near poverty. It would be foolish for governments to ship them all into the US, so the question is, who should die and who should be supported by working class Americans? How many should be allowOnald and how many should be turned away?
We don’t have open immigration in our homes and businesses, private property rights is and should be the determinant there. Why should billionaire communists and their political thugs force us to support immigrants, while working class citizens are ignored? There is a reason Trump was elected, and it is mainly because citizens of the country have been treated like shit by globalist elites. It is not racism or xenophobia. It is anti-communism. And deep down that’s what irks people like Sumner the most.
12. May 2017 at 18:31
The market test has so far determined that NGDP futures is a failure. Waste of resources. If it were beneficial to investors and consumers, then it would have already been set up. Efficient markets right?
If “donations” are necessary to keep it up, then it is nothing more than a charity case for losers.