The art of the possible
One of my favorite Adam Smith sayings is that “There’s a great deal of ruin in a nation.” When reading others, I often think that people get too pessimistic about this or that country, based on a few highly visible problems.
But another way of thinking about this idea is that maybe even very well run countries fall far short of their “potential.” I use quotation marks, as potential seems like a very slippery and unscientific concept. After all, there may be deep-seated reasons why countries struggle to come up with good governance. Still, you never get anywhere without setting goals.
Bryan Caplan and Will Wilkinson have been discussing the possibility of a regime of open immigration, and whether it could co-exist with a modern welfare state. I can’t answer that question, but I will argue that we are very far from the “policy possibilities frontier” for liberaltarianism. Imagine a country:
1. Which accepts more immigrants per capita than almost any other nation on earth, despite being the most densely populated country with more than 5 million inhabitants. So densely populated that they need to reclaim land from the sea in order to find places to put people.
2. Has very high taxes on activities that produce environmental externalities, yet remains the most free market country according to several indices of economic freedom.
3. Has a very comprehensive welfare state including national health care and pensions for all, yet still maintains a highly efficient tax system at rates far below that of other developed countries. And if that’s not enough, runs gigantic budget surpluses year after year, despite the ultra-low tax rates and very generous welfare state.
You think that’s utopia? No place like that could exist? Think again.
This example tells me that while there may be some political limits to how many immigrants we can absorb, and we may not be able to provide the same welfare benefits to immigrants as to native-born Americans, we aren’t even close to the policy frontier. We can have much lower taxes, a much more complete welfare state, and much higher rates of immigration. And while we’re at it, let’s also run a gigantic budget surplus. We just need to try harder.
And here’s a nice side effect. Success get emulated. As others see how well you are doing with the liberaltarian model, they’ll want to copy the policies. That speeds up the day when the entire world can become a giant Schengen area.
PS. I cheated a bit in point #2 above. As my wife keeps reminding me, Hong Kong is not a “country.”