Stolen election claims aren’t just wrong, they’re laughable
You don’t need to look at all the various claims of electoral fraud to know that this election was not stolen (although doing so shows they are almost entirely without merit.) Rather one can easily establish that the election was not stolen merely by looking at the data.
First of all, Biden will win by 7 or 8 million votes. As far as I know, no one has ever claimed that election fraud occurs at the level of millions, at most it would be 100,000s, and even that’s highly implausible. That means that Biden really did win the election by perhaps 7 million votes. In that case, it would be shocking if he did not win the Electoral College.
Now you could argue that there was fraud in a few close states, and that that tipped the election to Biden. But in the end even states like Michigan and Pennsylvania won’t be all that close, so the most likely suspects would be Georgia, Wisconsin and Arizona.
But why would a nefarious Democratic plot target Georgia? Before the election, both Florida and North Carolina looked like more plausible targets. And yet there are basically zero accusations of widespread voter fraud in Florida, where Trump did better than expected. And Trump did especially well in exactly the sort of corrupt places where voter fraud would be most likely to occur, if it occurred at all—Dade County.
Wisconsin is an even more far-fetched example. Republican conspiracy theorists focus on Milwaukee, but Trump lost because affluent areas around Milwaukee and Madison swung sharply to Biden, just as those sorts of areas did all across America:
But don’t be fooled by those big blue arrows near Milwaukee, those are shifts, not levels. Trump still easily won the suburban counties outside Milwaukee, just by less than in 2016. These are Republican counties, and they are also some of the least corrupt places in all of America. The idea that Biden would steal an election by getting strongly Republican counties in Wisconsin with a “good government” tradition to switch votes for him is laughable.
Now I suppose one could argue that even though Milwaukee didn’t move very much toward Biden, it was also corrupt in 2016. But cities like Milwaukee always go overwhelming Democratic, all across America and in every single election.
People need to use their brains. I don’t doubt that a handful of votes were stolen in this district and that, and that some of the stolen votes went each way. But Biden’s going to win by 7 or 8 million votes. With that margin it’s overwhelmingly likely that the tipping point states would favor Biden. This was not a stolen election.
Arizona also seems unlikely, as it’s not an old state with a long history of Democratic big city machines, rather it’s a young and growing state that’s very suburban and traditionally Republican.
Claiming the election was stolen when Biden won by 7 million votes is like claiming your card dealer was dishonest because you weren’t dealt a royal flush. People need to get a grip on reality, and learn some math.
PS. That big blue arrow northwest of Green Bay is an Indian reservation, with few people. Smaller blue arrows between Green Bay and Wisconsin’s western edge (close to Minneapolis) are modest size Wisconsin towns, with roughly 50,000 people each. Most rural counties have red arrows.
PPS:
Yes, Biden getting more votes than Obama is “proof” that Biden stole the election. And yet how could Trump be anything but a sore loser? He’s almost unique among human beings in having literally no good points. None.
Trump lost by a much wider margin that Mitt Romney, and to a far weaker candidate than Barack Obama. Pathetic.
And he may well be elected president in 2024.
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8. November 2020 at 11:10
I’m impressed you at least investigate the claims before dismissing them. If more of the media did that, there would be far less conspiratorial theorizing. I will say this article (can’t vouch for the source) did convince me that there’s a long history of pretty nasty election fairness disputes in MI that you don’t address:
https://www.maciverinstitute.com/2020/11/how-the-wisconsin-elections-commission-destroyed-fair-elections-in-wisconsin/
Not enough to swing an election, of course. The voting shift map of the entire US makes it pretty clear there’s almost no way isolated cases of voter fraud could have changed the outcome, unless it was something very sophisticated.
8. November 2020 at 11:23
So you say you’ve looked at the data, but didn’t focus on any of the allegations? Really?
Let’s review this data:
1. 14 counties in Wisconsin, all democratic counties, in which voter turnout was 200%. Since Sumner struggles with mathematics, let’s help him here. If you have 300,000 registered voters in a county, and 600,000 show up to vote, that would indicate something is wrong. What is wrong exactly? We don’t know. But it deserves investigation.
2. When you have computer glitches in Michigan, and those glitches cause 6000 votes in a very small county to be switched from Trump to Biden, and those machines are used in 47 Michigan counties, and in other swing states, that deserves investigation.
3. When you have postal workers writing affidavits that they were told to back date ballots that is a cause for concern.
4. When you have 100 conservative election day ballot watchers in Detroit, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Las Vegas, saying they were denied access to witness the counting of votes, that is a violation of federal law.
5. When you have an election official in Nevada signing an affidavit that he was told to “ignore irregularities on Biden ballots” that is a cause for concern.
6. When you have videos of election officials filling out ballots at a table in Atlanta, that needs to be investigated.
7. When Biden underperformed Clinton in every city across America except for swing state cities that is a cause for concern.
8. When the PA supreme court overrules its legislature that is unconstitutional. The supreme court will rule on that.
The only thing “laughable” is your partisan quackery. If you actually looked at the data instead of pretending to look at the data, then of course you would see irregularities.
A rational non partisan, non biased person, would say these irregularities ought to be investigated so that we have full confidence in the election. If, after a full review of these irregularities, Biden is still the winner than that is something ALL Americans can accept. But ignoring such irregularities is a VERY DANGEROUS proposition.
And AGAIN, your idiocy about the popular vote is mind boggling. You still fail to grasp the concept of a republic. LOOK UP THE WORD YOU MORON. Thank you!
8. November 2020 at 12:04
Three things bother me:
1. Philadelphia and Pittsburgh denied access to ballot watchers. It will be interesting to see how that plays out in the courts.
2. 600k + votes in swing states (all for Joe Biden) with no down ballots. That has never happened before.
3. USPS affidavits and witnesses claiming internal fraud.
I would like to see these investigated, and I imagine they will be.
Scott mentions 100k votes or so being wrongly counted, and he implies that these votes are insignificant. But that is obviously not true. Georgia is within 10k. Arizona is within 15K. Nevada is within 20k. And PA will end up at the Supreme Court. Michigan GOP filed suit over USPS claims, so that is also interesting….
It is also worth noting that votes have not been certified! There have been many instances (Arizona more than once) where certification process changes the outcome. In Fulton county they already found issues with certification.
So let’s wait to see the how things unfold.
8. November 2020 at 12:25
Xu, LOL, that sort of post won’t convince anyone who isn’t totally innumerate. Almost everything you say is wrong. If you can’t handle numbers, it’s best to keep silent.
Harry, You said:
“Scott mentions 100k votes or so being wrongly counted, and he implies that these votes are insignificant.”
I suggest you reread my post, several times if necessary.
8. November 2020 at 12:31
I voted for Biden, but if these allegations against him turn out to be true I’m never voting democrat again.
I cannot understand why PA election officials refused conservatives to watch, when state law requires them too. It just makes us all feel uneasy about the results. If you have nothing to hide, why do that?
It’s bizarre. I really hope for the sake of our country that these idiots did not stuff ballots.
8. November 2020 at 12:38
Why do you think the prediction markets still have Trump at 8%? Isn’t it more like 1% just given how unlikely whatever minor voting issues occurred are remotely big enough to take away states from Biden. Nate Silver has a recent tweet mocking the prediction markets having Trump still at 7%. Nate also still seems to believe the polls basically did OK. I remember before the election he criticized the prediction markets because their state level calls didn’t line up with their call for Biden/Trump. But looking back, they look more accurate with Biden at 65/70 as a opposed 90% in his model. Your thoughts?
8. November 2020 at 12:42
John, Relax, almost all of those accusations will eventually be proved baseless.
Jeremy, Perhaps illiquidity. I don’t think bettors can profit on that price.
8. November 2020 at 13:11
If the Democrats are so good at this, why didn’t they bother to win the Senate and state houses?
So far the Republicans have sued 10 times and won 0. They only thing they got was an order to segregate ballots that were already being segregated.
Every factual claim they have made is unsupported. Spokespeople have repeatedly been asked for evidence and have nothing. The RNC chair essentially said allegations first, evidence later.
8. November 2020 at 13:41
Sidney Powell is now saying she has the evidence to prove Dominion software was tampered with.
She’s one of the best attorney’s in the country. Either this is the end of the deep state and the democratic establishment, or the republican establishment is making noise.
We’ll see. But definitely not over. Remember Al Gore took 37 days to concede. We may have a similar situation here as the courts look into this.
8. November 2020 at 14:10
In Pennsylvania, all the ballot counting workers are basically 50/50 by law. The hub bub about observers in Philly is the Trump campaign wanting additional observers affiliated with their campaign above and beyond the registered Republicans already on site from the beginning. Also, the Convention Center has plenty of cameras. Trump got a higher percentage of the Philly vote in 2020 than in 2016. He lost it in the suburbs.
8. November 2020 at 14:11
Janice, She is unwilling to describe the evidence. What does that tell you?
8. November 2020 at 14:30
I’m worried when I hear academics use “pathetic” to describe a conservative candidate who received the most votes in his parties history. It seems really out of touch with the American people.
Is our nation becoming so embroiled in identity politics that we are losing our minds?
Sumner is now suggesting that these allegations shouldn’t be pursued? Is that who we are? I think every American wants allegations investigated to make sure Biden really did win. It’s not unreasonable to file suit and have the courts look at the evidence.
8. November 2020 at 14:59
“In Pennsylvania, all the ballot counting workers are basically 50/50 by law.”
So What? My understanding is that a supreme court judge directed that the republicans had the right to observe. To the extent that they were denied this right it will likely result in the court making a ruling that seriously hurts Biden.
Scott is most likely right and Biden won, so resolving all these issues is good for everyone. Right now I think there is a small chance that the Dems stole the election. I will feel much better if the investigations prove this is not true.
Off topic. I checked the NBC website at 5pm eastern today Nov 8 and they show a Biden popular vote lead of about 4.3 million not 8 million
Biden – 75,370,055
TRUMP – 71,096,558
8. November 2020 at 15:20
It hasn’t even been a week since the last election and you’re already predicting his 2024 victory? I guess I was foolish to expect his defeat would mean Trump-induced apoplexy wouldn’t dominate politics for the next 4 years. Are we going to see nonstop rationalizing for every bad policy the new administration pursues because speaking ill of it ‘just helps (the political ghost of) Trump?’
8. November 2020 at 15:55
sumner continues to stray, lamentably, so far wide of what his modest competency is that he has graduated from tragedy to farce. the national vote spread is irrelevant to a federal system based on a state by state electoral college system. Its also sophistry to introduce assertions of “likely will be found baseless” without waiting for the evidence, but not uncommon in those who have slip to farce such as Sumner. Sumner, as is typical of an intolerant crank laboring under modest to inferior intellect, tries to force feed a corn-crib of corn down the gullet of wish and speculation to produce the pate of truth. ignore him.
8. November 2020 at 16:08
Jaynes, You said:
“Sumner is now suggesting that these allegations shouldn’t be pursued?”
Oh, Trump will pursue them, but his advisors have already quietly admitted that they don’t really have anything, and the election results won’t change.
Perhaps you are too young to recall previous elections, but these charges are always thrown around right after an election and nothing MAJOR is ever found. (Obviously small amounts of vote fraud do occur, from time to time.)
Bob, The margin for Biden will expand greatly once all the votes are counted, as there are many millions of mail-in votes yet to be counted, and they are going overwhelmingly for Biden. I’d say 7 million is the best guess right now.
Mark, You said:
“Are we going to see nonstop rationalizing for every bad policy the new administration pursues because speaking ill of it ‘just helps (the political ghost of) Trump?’”
Not from me! I’m highly critical of both parties, and don’t care who it helps.
agrippa, I find it amusing to be called a “crank” by an internet conspiracy buff. 🙂
8. November 2020 at 16:15
I mostly agree with you that it wasn’t stolen.
But let’s be serious claiming it was stolen is good campaign strategy. And I support the strategy. The new reality in American politics is you begin campaigning from day one of an administration. And we need a strong opposition to prevent the progressives and woke from ruining this country. Trump like it not is the fave of the opposition.
8. November 2020 at 16:41
Sean, The Republicans seem to be almost going out of their way to push smart people toward the Dems. That’s very unfortunate, as there are lots of problems with Democratic policies.
Our politics was much healthier in the 1980s and 1990s.
8. November 2020 at 16:43
Sumner,
Some of your comments are pretty strange. There are videos of poll watchers being denied meaningful access to the ballot counts, and there was a court order that was ignored. Why the dismissive tone when election integrity is such a serious matter? It’s pretty darn rich that Democrats are laughing at any questioning of election integrity when they just spent four years blabbering out of their asses about Russian interference. I’m so very tired of elites unwilling to take a modicum of risk in their intellectual lives.
I will say Trump’s statements throughout this election process have been inexcusable and stupid.
8. November 2020 at 17:06
Sebastian says to Antonio in “The Tempest” “All past is prologue”. He’s presenting Antonio with the fork in the road: the past has brought them to murder, but they could go another way. Sumner’s past is past the prologue: he has gone down the path of hurling invective, holding his breath till we all turn blue, doxing the internet non-cranks as cranks to deflect from his own crank status, bullying, whining, mewling, lying and fulminating with indignity against his own prior ideas. Entertaining chutzpah, but an absolute abjuring of truth.
8. November 2020 at 22:42
“there are many millions of mail-in votes yet to be counted”
This is my main concern regarding the integrity of this election. I have heard horror stories about how these mail in votes are fraudulent. I do not know if this is true but I would sure like someone to find out.
8. November 2020 at 22:48
I live in the state of Washington. Here we have 100% mail in voting. It seems to work well but you can’t mail in a vote without first registering and they do a good job of validating votes. You do not see much concern in our State about mail in votes. If other states are just mailing millions of ballots to dead people etc and not validating them when they come back then this is a major problem since, as Scott says, there are so many millions of these type votes.
9. November 2020 at 05:35
Scott reveals himself as crazy as those he accuses. He leads off with his “7-8” million popular vote irrelevancy and closes with same. This is his most important point (assuming he follows the usual essay format—which I do believe he does). He has this popular vote obsession which is all in California and New York (it’s still popular vote and it still counts as votes obviously) but what does this have to do with contested states?
The answer is nothing. The reason he believes it is obvious the election was not stolen is because we never had one stolen before (oh wait, 1960? We know Illinois was stolen—-but that was not enough—-you still needed action in Texas ——but given that LBJ was from Texas…..well that was never demonstrated but always suspected)—-but of course the belief is reasonable by Scott because think of what it implies.
It implies that the other party would do anything to get rid of Trump.
Things as ridiculous as phony collusion stories, Trump being under blackmail by Putin for sexual “perversion” (perversion? Is there perversion anymore?)or proposing the 25th amendment idea (the first time, not the one designed for Biden), or having ex-CIA heads lying on National TV, or having 80-90% of all media coverage anti Trump, or having the PA sec of state, announce with full smile on her face that “we will keep counting the votes and Biden will win”—-before the election; or the easily explained reasons why it was perfectly normal to have vote counting stop for hours at a time in the close states, or the media deciding never to ask Biden a real question (except the second debate moderator and when he got his “end fracking” idea) —-or Biden telling us that the DEMs have created the most organized anti election fraud unit to stop any attempt by Trump to cheat. Et. Cetera.
No sane person would ever think that THAT party would ever try to cheat. So we are currently left with insane conspiracy theorists who doubt the election. But Scott, who understandably (no sarcasm—really) goes with the standard response seems to have no doubt.
Well, I tend to think like Scott—even now. Except I want Trump to go full out in not conceding ——-because part of me feels like Hillary in 2016—even as she lacked all the priors Trump has in his favor.
9. November 2020 at 06:26
I know this says nothing about cheating——-or does it? The racist Trump received the highest percent or share of non-white voters than any GOP candidate since 1960. Ironic that is the other year when many doubted the outcome.
You thought Trump would win anyway (I did not)——but if you knew this would it have changed your view on the likelihood of him winning? He lost share among white men and seniors.
Oh, and speaking of seniors, how likely is it that Pfizer would announce their “surprise” vaccine announcement 6 days after the election? Remember “most favored nation pricing?” And they will seek permission to begin using within 2 weeks. Wasn’t Trump called a liar on saying exactly this? I believe he was.
Does it matter if they only have 94 examples of it working (why is that? Aren’t we having a crisis of so called cases)? Hard to get volunteers I suppose.
Of course it does not matter. What matters is they said it today and they could have said it last Monday——or at least “very promising news soon” or some such crap.
Just one more conspiracy theory to add to the pile
9. November 2020 at 06:40
Scott, you wrote “Jeremy, Perhaps illiquidity. I don’t think bettors can profit on that price.”
In my opinion, this is very unlikely to be the explanation. (What the real explanation is I don’t know — I guess some people still believe that Trump can win? Absurd.) At Betfair there is currently several hundred thousand on the bid/offer around odds 1.06. One pays commission of 5% of the winnings (so betting on Biden will yield 5.7% after costs). Say that it takes a month for the bet to settle — that’s almost 70% annualized return on capital! I’m buying a lot.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/2020-us-presidential-election/usa-presidential-election-2020-betting-28009878
9. November 2020 at 07:01
“There’s a reason why France banned mail-in balloting in 1975, why the New York Times used to say that mail-in balloting was ripe for fraud, why Jerry Nadler, a Democratic leader used to say mail-in balloting is really bad if you care about election integrity,” _—Mollie Hemingway—-of course she is a liar—because she supports Trump.
While—-again—this proves nothing——it still says something about why distrust exists.
9. November 2020 at 09:06
Agrippa, I wrote a straightforward post looking at actual statistical data and discussing what it implies about the likelihood of a stolen election. You responded with:
“Sumner’s past is past the prologue: he has gone down the path of hurling invective, holding his breath till we all turn blue, doxing the internet non-cranks as cranks to deflect from his own crank status, bullying, whining, mewling, lying and fulminating with indignity against his own prior ideas.”
I’ll let other readers take a second look at my post and decide who is the “crank”.
Bob, You said:
“I have heard horror stories about how these mail in votes are fraudulent.”
Yeah, I’ve heard these stories too. From Trumpistas. When I hear them from experts, even GOP experts, I’ll get worried. Are there a few fraudulent ballots? Of course, in a country of 300 million. Enough to sway this election? No.
Michael, You said:
“The racist Trump”
Ahem, it’s top GOP officials that call Trump racist. Why don’t you argue with them? With Paul Ryan, Lindsey Graham, Mitt Romney and all the rest? But you are right, this proves that Trump is not a racist, as we all know there are no Hispanics with racist feelings toward blacks.
You said:
“Oh, and speaking of seniors, how likely is it that Pfizer would announce their “surprise” vaccine announcement 6 days after the election?”
LOL, the chance is 100%. It happened. Please stop the nutty conspiracy mongering if you want me to take you seriously.
Everything I’ve read from sore loser Trumpistas since the election has just further lowered my opinion of Trump commenters. Can’t any of you accept reality? Must you live in a paranoid fantasy world? He lost—deal with it. I accepted that Hillary lost in 2016. Grow up.
Johannes, OK, I guess I’m just too lazy. Otherwise I’d definitely bet on Biden at those odds.
9. November 2020 at 09:30
@Michael R:
You probably should stop with the “Dems only get more votes because of CA and NY” framing. Biden got more votes in 25 states this election. Hillary got more in 20 states.
9. November 2020 at 09:51
@Scott
You seem to not notice that I agree and agreed before, that Biden won. I am trying to explain to you why there is paranoia—and if you cannot see that, it is because you are as biased as me.
9. November 2020 at 09:55
@mskings
All I was saying is that popular votes do not matter—you are now arguing that “number of states matter”—which is not that absurd—that is basically how parliamentary systems work.Except that was not the discussion–the discussion was popular votes
I am still right on number of popular votes. Trump has more outside NY and Cal. More importantly, it does not matter—which has been my point forever—not votes, not number of states , but electoral votes.
9. November 2020 at 09:58
LOL on 100%–very funny—-and you know, I think I agree, not JUST because it happened, but we should have known it would happem
9. November 2020 at 12:09
@michelle – Pfizer announced in October, during their earnings call, that they would likely announce efficacy this week. Trump announced two weeks ago that news about the vaccine would be coming out in two weeks. So it’s 100% likely that “Pfizer would announce their “surprise” vaccine announcement 6 days after the election”
9. November 2020 at 12:41
How likely is it that Trump could win.
NBC has Trump at 214. There are five states not included in the 214 where the current spread is very tight. These are Arizona (11), Wisconsin(10), Pennsylvania(20), Georgia(16) and North Carolina(15) totaling 72. 214 +72= 286. If there is serious fraud in these states then it is plausible Trump could still win. Not likely, but, likely enough that I am still watching this horse race intently.
9. November 2020 at 15:01
McConnell is now saying Republican senators were properly elected, but those same ballots, that show that Trump lost, could be fraudulent.
9. November 2020 at 15:08
The two Republican senators from Georgia attack Georgia’s secretary of state for running a terrible election. They don’t make any specific (i.e., testable) allegations, let alone cite any evidence.
The current spread in WI, PA and MI is three times the 2016 margin. Hard to find any examples of a recount changing 1,000 votes and Trump would need to change many tens of thousands.
The WH claims GOP observers were not allowed in, while their lawyers admit in court that they were there.
9. November 2020 at 23:35
I voted for Republicans down ballot but I doubt I’ll ever do so again. Turns out the GOP is a fifth column. Only Mitt keeps me feeling sane.
Comparisons to Clinton are stupid. She conceded the next day. Democrats never claimed that she had won and Trump wasn’t president-elect.
We’ve had close elections before, but this time we have a candidate who can’t admit a loss. He even claimed that GOP primaries he lost in 2016 had been stolen. The GOP’s indulgence for this wannabe Putin disgusts me.
10. November 2020 at 07:08
@Chris
I assume your facts are correct. The reason I have to assume it is I never heard that before. What I recall hearing is that Trump was exaggerating and that he was lying. So it appears Pfizer was not at fault. So while Trump was saying that—the media was calling him a liar—at least that is what it seemed like. But this is just repeating ad nauseam what we have known forever.
10. November 2020 at 08:04
“Why do you think the prediction markets still have Trump at 8%?”
It looks like PredictIt has Trump up to double digit odds now (based on the relative prices of Biden and Trump). It costs you $0.84 to bet against Trump and $0.17 to bet for him.
You can bid for Biden at $0.88. Looks like a free 14% return over two months if you’re sure that there’s no chance that election fraud will be proven and Biden will take office. You can also hedge your bet with a very small investment in Harris for just $0.01 on the off chance that something happens to Biden in that time.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election
10. November 2020 at 10:15
foosion, Looking for logic in the GOP today is like looking for a needle in a haystack.
10. November 2020 at 10:22
Justin, Oddly, if all three disputed state election odds at Predict it are correct (and even they underestimate Biden’s chances), then Biden’s around 99% in the national, as he has three paths to victory.
Biden’s only at 87% in Michigan, and he won the state by 3%! Even NY is only at 97%. Seriously, that’s crazy.
12. November 2020 at 15:20
My favorite are the claims that “Dem cities like Detroit” have a hundred years of practice at voter fraud, but evidently just forgot to be corrupt in 2016 so Hillary could win.
14. November 2020 at 08:56
@peter
You may be right. But what is the one difference? Mass mail-in voting —-that is why this is happening