Still overheating?
Readers of this blog know that inflation is a pretty meaningless indicator. Biden didn’t lie when he said inflation fell to zero in July, but he also didn’t tell us anything useful.
NGDP is a much better indicator, but still not perfect. If we assume the key macro problem is business cycles created by nominal shocks interacting with sticky wages, then aggregate wage income may be a better cyclical indicator that NGDP. I usually focus on NGDP because in the US the two figures track each other pretty closely. But if I were a Kuwaiti macroeconomist I’d focus on aggregate wage income when trying to ascertain whether the domestic economy was out of equilibrium.
Commodity prices rose very fast in the first half of 2022. That doesn’t mean the inflation problem was all supply-side—nominal wages also rose rapidly. We have a supply problem and a demand problem.
In the second half of 2022, it seems likely that commodity prices will be trending lower, often sharply lower. Obviously this will make the headline inflation figures almost meaningless. Less obviously, it will subtly distort even NGDP. That’s right, NGDP is not a perfect indicator even in America; aggregate wages are slightly better. Fast rising commodity prices slightly boosted NGDP in the first half (relative to wage growth), and will probably slightly reduce NGDP growth in the second half.
A mild slowdown in NGDP growth in the second half will not represent progress in the Fed’s anti-inflation program unless accompanied by a slowdown in nominal wage growth. At a minimum, aggregate nominal wages must slow. Ideally, hourly nominal wages would also slow.
Today’s WSJ has an article suggesting that the labor market continues to tighten, with ever shorter periods of unemployment and fast wage growth. Some of it is anecdotal, but if true then the Fed may still be behind the curve.
A few weeks back, I suggested that I wasn’t too worried about a rising stock market, as bond market indicators continued to signal slower nominal growth ahead. Thus, it’s slightly worrisome that bond yields and TIPS spreads have been rising in recent weeks.
In its attempt to avoid a hard landing, is the Fed in danger of pulling up before the plane even hits the runway? We keep getting really bullish data, such as the July industrial production and payroll employment data. It still looks like a flat out boom. As of today, I’m with the Fed hawks.
And LOL at those Trumpistas who mocked me for suggesting that the US economy wasn’t in recession last winter. As of today, you look as foolish as the 2020 election deniers (which many of you are). The QAnon fantasy world becomes ever more all-encompassing each day. Soon they’ll be peddling theories of fake moon landings, grassy knolls, microchips in vaccines, and alien spacecraft coverups.
“But two quarters of falling GDP . . . “
🙂
Tags:
24. August 2022 at 13:17
You were premature in saying Powell did a good job last press conference. 10y inflation expectations are up about 25bp since then to 2.65%. He certainly must know if what he’s saying will be perceived as hawkish or dovish. The better question is why he wanted to push inflation expectations up? I continue to think the Fed is petrified of too-deep an equity market correction that can be blamed on them and not some exogenous cause.
24. August 2022 at 13:42
Banks are not intermediary financial institutions (matching savings with investments). Those that think an individual bank is a model for the system are myopic.
All monetary savings originate in the system. The source of interest-bearing deposits is demand deposits. Banks compete for the deposits that they already own. Banks could continue to lend even if savers ceased to save in the banks altogether.
Since banks don’t lend deposits, a dampening impact is exerted, secular stagnation. This will increase the GINI coefficient and thus crime.
24. August 2022 at 13:47
Effem, People misunderstand me because unlike most people I’m not “tribal”. I’m not a hawk of a dove. It’s very possible for Powell to give an excellent press conference one day, and then get carried a way a few weeks later with excessively dovish rhetoric.
My views on the Fed change from day to day.
24. August 2022 at 15:14
“Biden didn’t lie when he said inflation fell to zero in July”
What a ridiculously apologetic way of saying Biden made a false statement, by pretending to know his inner intention.
“As of today, you look as foolish as the 2020 election deniers (which many of you are).”
Sumner, YOU are an ‘election denier’ psychologically projecting your own election denial onto those speaking the TRUTH about the fraud. The evidence the 2020 election was rigged is OPEN SOURCE:
https://rumble.com/v1gt505-the-moment-of-truth-summit-day-2-the-trial-of-the-election-machines.html
https://rumble.com/v1f8hvx-exclusive-live-from-the-pit-a-vital-strategy-session-presented-by-true-the-.html
LOOK AT THE EVIDENCE AND THEN MAKE AN INFORMED RATHER THAN A FAKE NEWS INDUCED CONCLUSION.
“The QAnon fantasy world becomes ever more all-encompassing each day.”
There is ‘Q’.
There are ‘Anons’
There is no ‘QAnon’.
Media labeling as ‘Qanon’ is a deliberate method to combine and attach ‘Q’ to comments, theories, suggestions, statements, and actions made by ‘Anons’.
Media pushes their own ‘conspiracy theories’ and labels them ‘Qanon’.
“Soon they’ll be peddling theories of fake moon landings, grassy knolls, microchips in vaccines, and alien spacecraft coverups.”
Soon?
Why not by now after 5 years?
Oh that’s right you’re just in dialectic inversion smear mode to cover up your inability to refute the messages.
You were peddling Trump Russia collusion conspiracy theories because the msm said so and you’re gullible.
The msm was pushing dossier conspiracy theories, pee tape conspiracy theories, election machines not connected to the internet (but the auditors don’t need to see the routers) conspiracy theories, Hunter laptop is Russia disinformation conspiracy theories, and you can’t even put two and two together to figure out HOW they were revealed as lies/disinformation in the first place?
“People misunderstand me because unlike most people I’m not “tribal”.”
It is precisely because you’re “tribal” to the radical left dialectic faith that you output incoherent gobbledygook so often, and why you blame others rather than take responsibility for what you write, and why you smear ‘most people’ as inferior to you.
Your writing suggests you may be suffering from narcissistic personality disorder.
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/108879235564980127
24. August 2022 at 15:21
For some odd reason, workers like to have an easy time getting jobs and getting raises. Convincing them that these are bad things, or even things which should be slowed, seems a non-trivial task. A frequent criticism of central banks is their enthusiasm for limiting employment and wage growth.
It’s also a bit odd that some people don’t understand the difference between monthly inflation and annual inflation.
24. August 2022 at 15:55
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/matt-margolis/2022/08/20/biden-admin-touts-insulin-price-reductions-that-were-originally-trump-achievements-n1622553
“Biden didn’t lie, he just didn’t know he had nothing to do with this”
24. August 2022 at 16:10
Is it possible for the Fed to get nominal wage growth down without lowering the number of people employed? I assume that is what is meant by a soft landing, but if it is already the case that employers cannot easily find the employees they need, how can wage growth decelerate without a rise in people out of work, and hence available to hire, and to hire without getting raises from their last job? I am thinking that even if labor force participation rises, a lot of new jobs will be in positions that demand recent experience and relevant skills, such that raising labor force participation won’t do much to change the bargaining dynamics between employers and employees, except at the very low end. Granted, that is where wage growth has been strongest, so maybe that would be enough to bring nominal wage growth down.
24. August 2022 at 16:39
April 20, 2019:
https://www.themoneyillusion.com/impeach-him-2/
“The report … lists 11 examples of possible OBSTRUCTION OF JUSTICE. You can quibble about a few of these, but there’s more than enough here to justify impeachment.”
March 26, 2019:
https://www.themoneyillusion.com/still-have-tds-still-dont-have-rds-and-dds/
“I also argued that the Russia collusion and OBSTRUCTION OF JUSTICE were out there in plain sight.”
May 19, 2017:
https://www.themoneyillusion.com/somebody-help-me-with-this/
“Then it comes out that Comey has a memo describing Trump’s attempt to stop the investigation. People start talking about OBSTRUCTION OF JUSTICE. So yesterday Trump goes back to the first story, it was the assistant AG’s report, not the Russia investigation. Getting dizzy? Trump’s just getting warmed up.”
May 17, 2017:
https://www.themoneyillusion.com/reality-sucks/
“Yesterday, a commentator (I think it was Matt Lewis) said that Trump was basically a child—which seems right to me. He might not have even known he was committing OBSTRUCTION OF JUSTICE.”
Got all that folks? Sumner was ABSOLUTELY CONVINCED he KNEW Trump ‘obstructed justice’. So convinced in fact that ‘there is more than enough to impeach’ for obstruction of justice. And anyone who disagreed were gullible “Trumpistas”. His sources? Fake news msm conspiracy theories!
Got that?
LOOK AT THIS UNREDACTED DOJ MEMO JUST RELEASED TO THE PUBLIC:
August 22, 2022:
https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/unredacted-memo-reveals-why-doj-didnt-prosecute-trump
“Given that conclusion, the evidence does not establish a crime or criminal conspiracy involving the president toward which any obstruction or attempted obstruction was directed”.
Sumner’s peddling of conspiracy theories collapsing day after day, and the whole time HE is smearing those who knew all along it was a setup that THEY are somehow pushing ‘conspiracy theories’.
Psychological projection is a helluva drug isn’t it?
As the days go by, I encourage readers to go back to all of Sumner’s TDS conspiracy theory posts and watch as they all get demolished WITH DECLASSIFIED INFORMATION, i.e. TRUTH AS IT IS.
24. August 2022 at 16:45
https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/fbi-whistleblowers-say-senior-officials-ordered-bureau-not-investigate
Remember kids, when the FBI raided Trump’s home, they were just doing what they always do, it’s totally normal, don’t make a big deal of it, everyone concerned about Trump’s home getting illegally raided should just shut up and accept the gestapo FBI overlords.
24. August 2022 at 16:51
i’m peddling that economist manque sumner was on a grassy knoll during a fake moon landing hiding microchips in drugs to be trasported to jackson hole in a spaceship the existence of which will be covered-up by powell disguised as sumner disguised as summers.
24. August 2022 at 17:02
foosion, You said:
“For some odd reason, workers like to have an easy time getting jobs and getting raises. Convincing them that these are bad things, or even things which should be slowed, seems a non-trivial task.”
I’ve got an idea, why don’t we NOT try to convince them that jobs and high wages are bad!
Lizard, Possible, but not easy.
24. August 2022 at 17:19
Scott, you wrote:
“At a minimum, aggregate nominal wages must slow. Ideally, hourly nominal wages would also slow.”
That appears to a suggestion that “high wages are bad”. How do you reconcile these statements? Nominal v real? Take action but don’t try to convince people? Something else?
24. August 2022 at 17:35
“The QAnon fantasy world becomes ever more all-encompassing each day. Soon they’ll be peddling theories of fake moon landings, grassy knolls, microchips in vaccines, and alien spacecraft coverups.”
Scott has a very difficult time differentiating; for example, Malone, who is a world renowned scientist — not some bum sitting next to Sumner’s low budget home — has been a proponent of vaccines his whole life. He just doesn’t like this vaccine, for reasons he’s expressed. Despite his well stated position, Sumner and the other radical fanatics attempt to put him into the same category as the “Q” group.
Sumner does this with Trump supporters as well. A Trump supporter might be someone whose fed up with the woke left, and who wants to decentralize government. They might believe in states rights, and in self determination; they might think he’s best capable of tackling the incredibly corrupt establishment, such as Pelosi and McConnel. But in Sumner’s view, this person is not just “fed up with the woke left”, but a “Q”, hitler, stalin, mao, putin lover, and a “Trumpista” — whatever that means.
This is the sign of low intelligence and/or delusion. It’s an inability to objectively asses someone’s position.
McWhorter is attacked in the same way, by the same fanatics. They now call him a “uncle tom”. This is the nastiness of the racist, bigoted left.
24. August 2022 at 18:52
Foosion, People say they don’t like high inflation, right? So logically you can’t have high nominal wage growth unless productivity is soaring, right? Inflation affects both wages and prices.
I think when the average person says they want high wages, they mean high real wages. They don’t mean they want to earn a trillion dollars an hour like Zimbabwe workers.
Ricardo, Malone says there are computer chips in the vaccine?
“McWhorter is attacked in the same way” Ask McWhorter if Trump is “best [person] capable of tackling the incredibly corrupt establishment”.
But you are right that McConnell is corrupt. He knew that voting to convict Trump was the correct verdict, and he refused to do so because he’s corrupt.
24. August 2022 at 19:12
https://justthenews.com/government/congress/congress-classifies-unidentified-aerospace-undersea-phenomena-ufos-not-man-made
https://www.congress.gov/117/crpt/srpt132/CRPT-117srpt132.pdf#page=12
While Sumner is parroting fake news narratives word for word like ‘election denier’, and smearing everyone who rejects the woke left as ‘conspiracy theorists’ who will next start conspiracy theorizing about UFOs, THE SAME DAY the Democrat Congress just published an addendum saying that there are UFOs that are not man made, authored by Mark Warner and others.
Lol!
“Ricardo, Malone says there are computer chips in the vaccine?”
WHO SAID THAT EXACTLY?
And by what garbage logic does this constitute an accurate assessment of the beliefs of tens of millions of people, a hundred million people?
https://thebestschools.org/magazine/15-logical-fallacies-know/#red-herring
24. August 2022 at 19:24
“He knew that voting to convict Trump was the correct verdict”
FOR WHAT CRIME?
All the impeachment accusations were exposed as false accusations to cover up the DEMOCRAT ACCUSER’S CORRUPTION.
Adam Schiff lied when he “restated” the content of Trump’s phone call with President of Ukraine, the source of impeachment #2. We know he lied because he transcript was declassified.
They lied when they accused Trump of colluding with Russia, we know this because the Mueller Report, based on 22 months and $30 million and 48 FBI agents and 500 witnesses and 2800 subpoenas, said on page 1:
“the investigation did not establish that members of the Trump Campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities.”
WHAT CRIMES, WHAT EVIDENCE, IS THERE TO ‘CONVICT’ TRUMP?
TDS ALERT!
24. August 2022 at 19:40
April 22nd, 2020:
https://www.themoneyillusion.com/five-more-years-of-this/
Here Sumner is parroting fake news yahoo.com, who sourced a Lancet study that the authors themselves RETRACTED AS FLAWED, criticizing Trump for promoting Hydroxychloroquine as a cure for covid.
HCQ attacked by the Democrat propaganda arm msm for the specific purpose of PREVENTING a stoppage to the pandemic, to impact the 2020 election by setting a pretext for fraudulent ‘mail in voting’.
Today, as predicted and right on queue, the fake news mafia with their corrupt partners in congress have generated the next hoax- after defeating Russia Gate, Ukraine, Impeachment, Bounty Gate, Jan 6, and the mar a lago raid: Now it’s Vaccine Gate.
Let the lies begin.
Again.
BTW, China and India governments administered HCQ to their respective populations. 40 years in use by humans. The creators of it won a nobel prize for their work.
Now, with evidence pouring out that the vaccine is killing people, Alberta Canada’s number one cause of death is ‘unknown’…
Now the fake news mafia is going to try to ‘finally take down Trump’ by pinning the vaccine deaths on him.
24. August 2022 at 20:12
Sumner is right that Mitch McConnell is corrupt (but not because he didn’t falsely convict Trump for a crime he never committed). It’s because of this:
https://thefederalist.com/2022/08/24/trump-is-right-mitch-mcconnell-and-elaine-chao-spent-decades-getting-rich-on-china/
25. August 2022 at 00:59
George, you need to lay of the computer for a few months and detox. Put down the conspiracies for a bit and go back packing or something. You are going to have a stroke over some orange narcissist that would literally screw your wife, burn your house down, and sell your children into slavery if it helped him. Turn off the talking heads… Stop looking for JFK junior to come back life.. turn off the computer and go outside.
25. August 2022 at 01:53
Scott, thanks for this post. Even if Powell said the right thing the Fed has to follow through. Data right now is pretty wacky–one example is gas prices seem to have depressed summer driving a tiny bit, but now pump prices are dropping as we enter the fall—when driving seasonally declines. Will people try to claw back some extra miles in September?
For even more wackiness, look at the single family home market. Actually, just go read Kevin Erdmann–he’s doing a better job than Calculated Risk at describing that mess.
25. August 2022 at 03:37
Scott, I wasn’t suggesting you are tribal (I don’t think you are). I was suggesting that in a moment of weakness you deviated from your preferred yardstick, which is market reaction. As Powell was speaking last press conference, inflation expectations were going up sharply. And have continued to go up since. I would have normally expected you to conclude “the markets have clearly spoken – Powell was ineffective.”
25. August 2022 at 03:41
As an aside, how should the Fed react to the stimulus from student loan forgiveness? It’s rather inconvenient to have a government adding fiscal stimulus at a time of high inflation. But it’s also possible the courts could declare it unconstitutional. Yet even the expectation of having loans forgiven could add to animal spirits.
Does the Fed immediately increase their economic and inflation forecasts? Immediately add 25bp to next hike? Simply wait and see how inflation expectations react?
25. August 2022 at 06:30
Good comments, particularly on keeping an eye on the ball, which is nominal wages.
Also, you did a great job at triggering George. George needs to work as a poll watcher at a local voting location so he can understand how silly it is to claim an American election was stolen.
He might also want to apply a little logic and ask himself why a Republican state like Georgia would steal an election for the Democrats.
25. August 2022 at 06:34
“Quantity leads and velocity follows”. Cit. Dying of Money -By Jens O. Parsson.
25. August 2022 at 06:55
Michael Sandifer: You’re projecting your own ‘triggering’ at what I wrote, which I notice none of it was engaged, let alone refuted.
“George needs to work as a poll watcher at a local voting location so he can understand how silly it is to claim an American election was stolen.”
There are literally THOUSANDS of signed affidavits, OPEN SOURCE, from poll workers all over the country who have sworn under penalty of perjury that they witnessed election fraud.
And not only that, but there are MANY instances of CRIMINAL CONVICTIONS of election fraud.
I bet you had no clue this was true.
Just because the fake news msm that you use as ‘truth’ doesn’t report it, and just because they lie and attack it, it doesn’t mean election fraud didn’t occur. That’s your logic error. Your logic is that if the fake news msm says X, then X must be true. This is despite years of their lies getting exposed.
“He might also want to apply a little logic and ask himself why a Republican state like Georgia would steal an election for the Democrats.”
What a silly question. Democrats stole the election in Georgia. The election rules were illegally changed there and in many other states.
The crude ‘D’ and ‘R’ division is not sufficient to determining who is honest about elections and who isn’t. RINOs and Democrats are part of the same uniparty who benefit from election fraud.
See the problem with lazy minds such as yours and Sumner’s, is that you believe you can acquire knowledge about the world disconnected from the sources of the information that would determine whether your claims are consistent or inconsistent with what it is you are speaking about.
You’re just parroting what the fake news msm NOISE says, you’re trusting proven liars, and in your narcissistic arrogance you believe that you don’t even need to OBSERVE the source information before you claim to know its contents.
The world of information is moving faster than your old legacy method which isn’t keeping up. You’re lagging.
Everything I am writing is open source, the world can SEE it with their own eyes, and no amount of low IQ psychological projections from you is going to overturn reality as it is.
The election fraud has been DIGITALLY DISCOVERED IN THE VOTER ROLL DATABASES AND IN THE ELECTION MACHINE DATABASES. Sworn affidavits accompany these as well. The algorithms impacting the databases have been discovered, the proof the election was stolen has been logically demonstrated. Not just opinion, not just belief, but logical impossibilities were found where the ONLY logical explanation is ballot stuffing and/or data manipulation.
You cannot claim to know more than me on the SOURCE DATA when you never bothered to VIEW the source information as I have. Others are smarter than me, because they looked at even more detail for longer period of time, but as far as you and I are concerned, it’s like I’m playing chess with a pigeon, where you shit on the board fly away and then pretend to have won a game.
25. August 2022 at 07:03
Student:
Here’s a translation of what you wrote: REEEEEEEEEE
25. August 2022 at 07:18
Here’s one example of proof of election fraud by digital logical impossibility in the NY voter roll database (the patterns of which MATCH other state voter roll databases):
https://rumble.com/v1g3dd1-ny-citizens-audit-presents-the-spiral-algorithm-in-ny-voter-rolls.html
To the projecting ‘election deniers’ here: Student, Sandifer, Sumner, this what systems engineering and data analytics would logically know is ‘smoking gun’ evidence, ‘deterministic’ evidence, because computers operate according to logic and can’t do what they are not programmed to do, the ONLY logical explanation for the NY voter roll database to contain what it was found to contain, is from an ‘external intelligence’ that manipulated the data to keep the true source hidden from view.
25. August 2022 at 07:28
The cash/drain factor has fallen from 1.103 on 2/1/2020 to 0.440 on 7/1/2022. I.e., there is a huge volume of saved DDs, excess liquidity, in the economy.
25. August 2022 at 07:35
Link:
https://marcusnunes.substack.com/p/misleading-monetarist-views
“Clearly, it´s not “all about money”. In fact it is, but not only about money supply. We must take into account money demand (or its inverse, Velocity).”
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=eTtE
The “demand for money” is slowly starting to fall.
25. August 2022 at 07:50
People might applaud that M2 has essentially flat-lined since 12/1/2021. But for stagflation to end, the FED must stay the course for a lot longer.
25. August 2022 at 08:13
Gross Domestic Purchases (chain-type price index) (A712RV1Q225SBEA)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A712RV1Q225SBEA
Q2 2022: 8.4
Q1 2022: 8.0
Q4 2021: 7.0
Q3 2021: 5.6
Q2 2021: 5.8
25. August 2022 at 08:31
David, Good points.
Effem, I don’t agree about the market reaction to the press conference. I believe the markets saw the Fed as reducing tail risk.
The debt announcement may or may not result in fiscal stimulus. I have no idea what people expected before the announcement. Recall that the student debt was already on hold. Debt repayments will start up soon.
The markets will tell the Fed what to do, if they pay attention. As for now, they need to lean toward tighter money.
George and Spencer, That’s not writing, that’s typing.
25. August 2022 at 09:23
Sumner, “That’s not writing, that’s typing.”
That’s not writing, that’s a deflection into redefining and controlling language by projecting your own Rortyian self contradictory logic towards the words ‘writing’ and ‘typing’ as if your self contradictory logic is the same logic used by everyone else.
Everything you have accused me of, is a projection of yourself. Nothing to do with me, I’m looking at and communicating information from source.
———
FBI whistleblowers have come forward revealing that FBI leadership told them NOT to investigate Hunter laptop that implicates Joe Biden in treason, at the same time the FBI raids Trump’s home.
If you look at these facts and you don’t or can’t see the problem, I can only say I thank God you are nowhere near the halls of political power where your warped politicized “tribal” ideology would wreak havoc on society.
25. August 2022 at 09:56
It’s a bit confusing: the Fed should watch the markets (presumably inflation expectations) to judge how to react to fiscal policy. But if those same inflation expectations rise sharply while Powell is giving a press conference its just the Fed removing tail risk?
25. August 2022 at 11:06
Here is the definition of ‘truth’ sourced from marsists.org:
https://www.marxists.org/glossary/terms/t/r.htm#truth
As I have said before, while dialectic faith practitioners use the same vocabulary as everybody else, they nevertheless implement the words using a different dictionary.
Notice the definition of truth as posted on ‘themoneyillusion’ is a logical isomorphism of the definition used by Marxists.
Sumner, self-professed ‘slightly off center’, is literally implementing a logic that in its ‘full’ form drives genocidal communist dictatorships responsible for 100 million deaths during the 20th century, and into this century oppressive regimes in China, North Korea, Cuba, Nicaragua, and infiltrations throughout US government industry, AND ACADEMIA.
After all, as Winston was told in 1984, if the philosopher kings successfully intimidate, torture, and brainwash people into believing 2+2=5, then that IS the ‘truth’ of 2+2, and if you disagree, the dialectic logic is to liquidate your existence because the ‘geist’ behind history, the dialectic, marches forward and discards human beings when it’s done with them.
25. August 2022 at 12:27
Chandler: “Professor Pritchard is quite right, of course, in pointing out that commercial banks tend to compete with themselves when the issue savings deposits”
It’s people like you who are directly responsible for the dismal state of economics.
25. August 2022 at 13:03
One thing you never do Sumner is back up anything you write. No figures, no models, no forecasts. You avoid anything concrete. It’s like you can’t apply your theory.
25. August 2022 at 13:27
You should note that I don’t quote you.
25. August 2022 at 15:04
George: You should read: “Peril is a book by American journalists Bob Woodward and Robert Costa about the last days of Donald Trump’s presidency, as well as the presidential transition and early presidency of Joe Biden.”
25. August 2022 at 17:12
George,
You make some good points, but…
https://rumble.com/v1g3dd1-ny-citizens-audit-presents-the-spiral-algorithm-in-ny-voter-rolls.html
is just complete BS. I worked as a COBOL programmer back in the 70s, which is when and with what most of the voter registration data systems would have been created and the data computerized. There were all kinds of reasons why you had to add control records to data: no RDBMS so data was kept in flat files and had to be sorted on a mechanical punch card sorter, limits to the number of cards you could put stack in a punch card reader so you need a control records to easily identify the group of cards you are using, use of Base 12 numbering to optimize processing based on limitations of the CPU, etc. All of the stuff in the video just looks like the normal way you would manage data back in the day and most of the time this stuff from legacy implementations was just left in the system because it was easier to leave it than to take it out. Nothing nefarious. The guy is definitely barking up the wrong tree and will look like a total idiot if the voter registration bureau in NY bothers to explain how the data in the voter rolls is structured.
(And yes I did watch the whole video.)
25. August 2022 at 20:10
Effem, You said:
“It’s a bit confusing: the Fed should watch the markets (presumably inflation expectations)”
There are many other relevant markets–the Fed does have a dual mandate. But yes, TIPS spreads are one market they should be looking at.
dtoh, You said:
“George,
You make some good points, but…”
LOL, George is a complete lunatic. Look at the web sites he links to, they are full of tinfoil hat conspiracy nuts. And you say he makes some good points?!?!? Where?
26. August 2022 at 01:49
Pfizer CEO Alberto Bourla pitched the World Economic Forum on including “biological chips” in pills to ensure compliance.
VIDEO HERE: https://twitter.com/loffredojeremy/status/1527521228688445442
Many world leaders are WEF acolytes, including Justin “Vaccine Passport” Trudeau and Mark “Shut the Farms” Rutte.
But it’s still “conspiracy theory” that they are actively doing this with present medicines 😉
26. August 2022 at 02:37
“But two quarters of falling GDP . . . “
I’m old enough to remember when Sumner was rooting for mini-recessions. But now it’s mini-recession bad because orange man bad!
We just got several significant pieces of stimulus:
– Inflation Reacceleration Act
– Gender Studies Debt Jubilee Executive Order
– Dump the Seed Corn Into Midterms SPR Release
These stimulus programs are helping both the demand side AND the supply side 😉
26. August 2022 at 05:29
dtoh:
Can you explain how a sequential order of SBOEIDs, which are populated one by one in sequence over decades as new registrations are added, would have associated registration dates all over the place where the reg dates go from say the year 2020 for one SBOEID, and then the next SBOEID in sequence have a reg date of 1962, then the next one 1984, then 2020, then 2019, then 1996, etc?
Can you explain how each county’s range of SBOEIDs makes it impossible to ADD new registration numbers to any one county because to add +1 to one county’s range would be the beginning of another county?
And with respect to ‘legacy systems’, how can you chalk this all up to 1970s COBOL and punchcards when the pattern extends from PRE COBOL INVENTION TO POST COBOL USAGE with the pattern falling perfectly in line from start to finish?
The only logical explanation is that the pattern was implemented all at once FOR ALL dates. Not that there are some dates from the 1970s with such a ‘legacyl pattern that ‘carried into’ the future when punchcards were no longer even used!
The problem is not that ‘control records were added’, it’s the STRUCTURE of the actual IDs and registration dates that prove the IDs and reg dates were not created sequentially over time, BUT ALL AT ONCE.
Voter roll record creation OVER TIME, as new ones are added and old ones taken off, DO NOT generate patterns like this.
———–
Sumner:
“LOL, George is a complete lunatic. Look at the web sites he links to, they are full of tinfoil hat conspiracy nuts. And you say he makes some good points?!?!? Where?”
Such a fragile narcissistic ego that Sumner cannot even tolerate ONE poster saying I am making good points. Personality cult much? LOL!
Everything you write about the election I view as tinfoil hat conspiracy nutcase garbage, caused by your trust in the conspiracy theory spewing fake news msm who lie every day.
Would you honestly treat that as a sufficient refutation of anything you write? No right? So what gives you the special insight to be able to contradict your own standard and call for a division in how arguments are to be confirmed or refuted for others?
Are you even able to practise what you preach?
I POSTED THE SOURCE THAT YOU ARE NOT VIEWING BUT MERELY SMEARING WITH ARGUMENTATIVE FALLACY AFTER FALLACY.
26. August 2022 at 05:32
This ACTUALLY HAPPENED:
https://i.imgur.com/5Lb6JZO.jpg
26. August 2022 at 05:47
The FBI had The Laptop From Hell in 2019, hid it during Impeachment Hoax # 1, when it was totally exculpatory to President Trump.
Then to try to get out in front of it coming to the public they lied to Congress and told them it was “Russian disinformation”. 51 ‘former intelligence experts’, including James Clapper, John Brennan, Mike Hayden, all signed a letter LYING that the laptop was ‘russian disinformation’:
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000175-4393-d7aa-af77-579f9b330000
The claim the laptop is ‘Russian disinformation’, isn’t THAT a ‘conspiracy theory’? And given WHO signed this letter, doesn’t it prove that when they were EMPLOYED at the highest levels of federal gov’t intelligence agencies that they were SOURCING ‘conspiracy theories’ themselves?
THE VERY SAME ONES SUMNER ACCEPTED AS ‘TRUTHS’ AS HE SMEARED AND ACCUSED OTHER PEOPLE OF SPEWING CONSPIRACY THEORIES?
Psychological projection, I’ve said it before, is a helluva drug isn’t it.
Funny thing though, the TRUTH always wins! And when the truth spreads, all those with a vested interest in the matrix of lies will become more and more screechy. Remind anyone of anyone?
26. August 2022 at 05:47
Yesterday’s employment #s, aren’t comparable to todays. There’s a huge demographic shift. That’s why the Biden administration is not vetting the illegals.
The FED is going to shrink its balance sheet by $95b in Sept. That might be enough to start a recession.
26. August 2022 at 05:49
Scott
Well I would say George has good points about the overreliance on the liberal MSM narrative which occurs so frequently in these pages, the failure to actually examine source material, the unwillingness to acknowledge that the Russian collusion story was a complete hoax, and the characterization of tribal nature of the progressive political movement.
26. August 2022 at 06:29
George
I don’t want to waste time on this but obviously the SBOEIDS were not issued sequentially nor could they have been in an era when there were no networks and when the IDs were being issued in multiple locations simultaneously. Instead it’s most likely that IDs were allocated in batches to each county, and the rate at which those IDs were issued varied substantially from county to county and from district to district within each county. It’s also possible that the IDs were added later to create a unique statewide identifier to facilitate operation of the system
You should disassociate yourself with this numerological crack pottery, otherwise it won’t just be Scott who thinks you’re a lunatic.
26. August 2022 at 06:32
Did anyone see Mark Zuckerberg on Rogan yesterday where he said the reason Facebook throttled the laptop from hell information is because THE FBI PAID THEM A VISIT WITH A ‘WARNING’?
That should send a chill down everyone’s spine.
Imagine Trump were President, and the FBI under Trump sent goons to say Politico or TheMoneyIllusion to ‘warn’ (i.e. intimidate/threaten) the site owners to CENSOR/’THROTTLE’ information detrimental to Trump and his family.
Sumner would 100% be, CORRECTLY, highly critical and ‘alarmist’, he would hire lawyers, and if feeling safe would call for an immediate investigation of the FBI, Congressional hearings, impeachment again, etc, etc, etc. I WOULD HAVE AS WELL! Such FASCIST behavior has no place in America!
But I GUARANTEE Sumner’s reaction to this will be nowhere close to that, there would be at most a reluctant uncomfortable soft ball criticism like “hey guys, cut it out…you’re making my political power logic look bad…and you’re helping my political opponents look good”.
This is sufficient proof that Sumner’s logic is at its root political power based, not reality based. After all, ‘truth’ is ‘really defined’ (SAYS WHO?) as ‘what you can get away with’. And how to cover for that deceptive logic? SMEAR, ACCUSE, NAME CALL, OBFUSCATE AND AVOID.
26. August 2022 at 06:56
dtoh:
With your ‘possible explanations’ theories, how would the information of one SBOEID assigned in one location for one individual at one moment in time be immediately PHYSICALLY TRANFERRED to ALL OTHER LOCATIONS in the state instantaneously to INFORM those locations that ‘this’ SBOEID is ‘taken’ by this individual on this day in this county?
Information flows cannot physically work that way without simultaneous implementation across all counties ACROSS ALL REGISTRATION DATES.
If your theory was correct, then as new SBOEIDs are created and allocated throughout the state, in various counties, assigned to various people, the REGISTRATION DATES for those SBOEIDs would logically be sequential as well, not decades apart.
Did you see the SBOEID registration date of 1952 sticking out like a sore thumb among SBOEIDs created decades into the future? Does it make any sense for a voter in 1952 to be assigned an SBOEID in a range that has immediately adjacent SBOEIDs with reg dates decades into the future?
The ‘spiral pattern’ EXTENDS BEFORE AND AFTER the ‘era’ you’re personally having experience in, which proves the pattern could not be caused by any 1970s algos only. The pattern requires simultaneous data implementation ranging over ALL the reg dates.
“You should disassociate yourself with this numerological crack pottery, otherwise it won’t just be Scott who thinks you’re a lunatic.”
I would recommend not conflating your seeming inability to conduct modern day data science, as my alleged flaw of ‘numerological crack pottery’. I think you need more experience than 1970s COBOL coding, and I could NOT care less whether you call me a ‘lunatic’ or otherwise, lol. In fact, the more I receive such responses, the more I know I am on the right track.
26. August 2022 at 07:12
dtoh:
“the failure to actually examine source material”
Yes exactly! See dtoh is smart, even if we seem to disagree, even if he wants to call me a lunatic. dtoh is using better logic than Sumner.
Whether conscious of it or not, dtoh is implementing the shannon-weaver model of communication:
https://i.imgur.com/0oDgWp0.jpg
which is IMO an absolute requisite logic to understanding how the flow of information physically occurs, and how we can ‘know’ anything about a source being described as ‘this’ and not ‘that’.
Do you see the ‘noise’ component? The MSM has brought about what I would estimate to have been 80-90% NOISE percentage in the total flow of information that we all understand as ‘the narrative’ that has SEPARATED the receivers (the public) FROM what in fact occurs at source (the truth of what in fact was said and done).
The MSM has been infiltrated by communist propagandists who are today implementing the exact same pattern of political and economic disinformation as what occurred in China 1966-1976 during the ‘cultural revolution’.
By dividing the people from reality at this level, is precisely how communist infiltration can occur as trusting people follow the planned narrative to set them up for future take over.
The data on 1.8 million poll workers across the country was discovered to be on UNICOM [CCP] backbone server, in Wuhan China of all places. Data on the poll worker’s CHILDREN is even on it. Do you think such data might be useful to bad actors?
26. August 2022 at 07:31
The Russian story was far from a hoax. Manafort and Trump Jr. both admit to meeting a woman they thought represented Putin to get oppo material on Hillary Clinton. If that’s not illegal, it should be.
It’s definitely conspiracy to collude with a foreign power to affect an election outcome, though there’s no statute that specifically forbids such behavior in those terms.
Trump is obviously a craven criminal who would sell out anyone and everyone just to daytrade on current events.
26. August 2022 at 07:54
Michael is a true believer, despite page 1 of the Mueller report clearly concluding NO RUSSIA COLLUSION.
26. August 2022 at 08:21
Another fake news / D Party narrative bites the dust!
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000182-d156-d8f9-ad9e-fd7726100000
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/24/justice-department-mueller-memo-trump-prosecution-00053612
“Having reviewed the Report in light of the governing legal principles, and the Principles of Federal Prosecution, we conclude that none of those instances would warrant a prosecution for obstruction of justice”
As more and more truths roll out, an interesting game to play is to go back to all the historical posts about those topics, visit all the msm websites, and this one, to see first hand just how disconnected from reality the narrative has been.
“LuNaTiC! cOnSPiRaCy tHeORiSt! NuTcAsE! cRaCkPoT!” The LOUDEST accusers tend to be guilty of what they’re accusing others of doing. I remember when I made my first posts here a couple of weeks ago, and right away the site owner displayed textbook psychological projection of what he’s guilty of.
In all seriousness, we, all of us, are right now being targeted with the largest most sophisticated communist psychological propaganda warfare operation in the country’s history. One effect of it is precisely the encouraging of such projection. It’s what the corrupt msm (POLITICAL PROPAGANDA ARM OF THE D PARTY) does every day!
Infiltration not invasion.
27. August 2022 at 11:40
dtoh, Perhaps you haven’t been following the blog in recent years. I’ve never peddled any Russian collusion theories, nor have I ever denied the tribal nature of the lunatic woke movement (which I’ve heavily criticized.)
Everything I did say about Trump in 2015 has proven to be true, as we all learned when he tried to steal the election. (Although I knew it long before.)
“Well I would say George has good points about the overreliance on the liberal MSM narrative which occurs so frequently in these pages”
This is the lazy argument people make when they cannot refute single fact in my posts. George is someone who thinks the US economy was in “recession” last winter.
If you want an alternative to the MSM, feel free to check out the web sites that George relies on. It’s often more fun than The Onion.
3. September 2022 at 05:58
“Perhaps you haven’t been following the blog in recent years. I’ve never peddled any Russian collusion theories”
Site owner continues to lie.
https://www.themoneyillusion.com/impeach-him-2/
“I was also mocked for my continued belief that Trump colluded with Russia in an attempt to stop Hillary. In fact, Trump and his supporters lie when they claim the report showed “no collusion“:
“In fact, in his report, Mr. Mueller explicitly stated that his conclusions were not about collusion, “which is not a specific offense or theory of liability found in the United States code.”
“The Mueller report found numerous examples of Trump people engaging in collusion-like activities with Russia, just as I claimed, although they could not prove that this collusion rose to the level of a crime.”
—————
“This is the lazy argument people make when they cannot refute single fact in my posts.”
THAT right there is a lazy argument because you can’t refute what dtoh said.
“George is someone who thinks the US economy was in “recession” last winter.”
Coming from someone who doesn’t even have a definition of recession. All you do is criticize other people’s definitions, without providing any yourself.
“A period of time when output falls well below trend” IS NOT A DEFINITION that anyone can ‘test’ independently from whatever definitions of THOSE words you have withheld behind an information firewall.
I “think” the economy always has one set of information that IS the economy. How you DEFINE what happens doesn’t change what is happening.
If the definition used is “two consecutive quarters of negative GDP”, then that happened under Biden this year.
Everyone is still waiting for you to provide a definition of recession, after how many weeks now?
You’re a ‘tenured, senior, career’ economist, and yet YOU CAN’T EVEN DEFINE ‘RECESSION’?
That’s like a doctor who can’t define ‘cancer’, or an architect who can’t define ‘sheer’, or a mechanic who can’t define ‘screwdriver’.
This is unbelievable, I’m literally witnessing a career economist who not only can’t define recession, but still somehow knows everyone else’s definitions are ‘wrong’, and on top of that fail to explain how or why they are all wrong.
It’s as if site owner wants the definition to be ‘what I say it is, just accept it, and I won’t provide sources/methods because it might jeopardize my credibility (way past that, lol), and if you challenge this I will smear and name call”.
It’s the same ‘logic’ as the FBI gangsters, LOL
3. September 2022 at 06:03
“If you want an alternative to the MSM, feel free to check out the web sites that George relies on. It’s often more fun than The Onion”
The “alternatives” have arisen precisely because the MSM has been exposed as nothing but the propaganda arm of the Democrat Party, who lie, cover up truth, smear and slander ‘opposition’ sources, WHICH IS EXACTLY WHY ALL YOU CAN DO IS SMEAR THE MESSENGERS. It’s because you can’t refute the messages. Exactly the pattern of the MSM!