Some thoughts on inflation

Ramesh Ponnuru offers some advice to the GOP in Bloomberg:

Republicans Can Extend Their Midterm Inflation Advantage

Rising prices will help the GOP in November. Supporting monetary tightening, pursuing smart tariff and regulatory policies and restraining Democratic spending would help even more.

These are good ideas, but Ponnuru is calling on the GOP to repudiate the economic policies favored by Donald Trump, which were easy money as far as the eye can see, recklessly expansionary fiscal stimulus, and dumb tariff polices. Given that the modern GOP is little more than a Donald Trump personality cult, that seems unlikely.

I have another (albeit even more unrealistic) idea, remove the oil export sanctions on Iran:

Iran has capacity to double oil exports if there’s sufficient demand, a top official said, even as a deal on the country’s nuclear program that could pave the way for the lifting of sanctions remain elusive.

Iran will “exert maximum effort to recoup its crude oil market share and revive its customers,” Mohsen Khojastehmehr, managing director of the National Iranian Oil Co., told reporters Saturday in Tehran.

Even by the standards of US foreign policy, allowing oil exports from Russia but not Iran stands out as particularly absurd. Yes, Iran sponsors terrorism. But Russia literally invaded a European country of 40 million people. And Iran is supposed to be the bigger threat? Our sanctions policies (including Europe) have actually helped Putin (and hurt Ukraine) by driving energy prices much higher. In fairness, we have supplied Ukraine with weapons—Trump would have made them dig up some dirt on Hunter Biden before doing so.

You might wonder if my suggestions are consistent with my previous claim that the Fed is 100% responsible for any excess inflation, which is roughly any inflation caused by NGDP growth above 3% or 4%. Think of it this way. For any given NGDP growth rate, reducing supply-side constraints would have the effect of shifting growth toward RGDP and away from inflation.

Alternatively, you can think of supply-side reforms as reducing the Fed’s preferred rate of inflation for 2022. So while the Fed ultimately controls the rate of inflation, supply-side reforms can help at the margin. They can make the Fed target a lower inflation rate.

PS. You might think that I’m being a bit harsh describing the GOP as a Trump personality cult. After all, the GOP still includes moderate people like Elise Stefanik. It’s true that Stefanik was a moderate, and indeed opposed many of Trump’s policies. But that was then. Now, the 3rd ranking member of the GOP House caucus is pretending to be a wild-eyed conspiracy nut to please her voters:

I’m occasionally called a pedophile by commenters, and I always wondered where that specific insult came from. Now I know. It means they think I’m opposed to starving innocent babies.

PPS. So who is actually depriving America’s babies of milk? The usual statist grifters like Trump and Biden, and the various businessmen that who support trade barriers on milk from other countries. Oh, and Elise Stefanik:

In January 2022, following Stefanik’s advocacy, a USMCA dispute settlement panel ruled in favor of the United States that Canada is breaching its commitments under the USMCA by unfairly administering dairy tariff-rate quotas in a way that harms American dairy farmers. 

“New York Farm Bureau appreciates Rep. Stefanik’s outreach on behalf of dairy farmers in her district and across the state.

(Yes, that’s regular milk, but we also have trade barriers on infant formula.)


Tags:

 
 
 

56 Responses to “Some thoughts on inflation”

  1. Gravatar of Bacon Wrapped Bacon Wrapped
    15. May 2022 at 10:19

    How heck do politicians get away with lumping the WH and Democrats with pedofiles? Seems libelou. I’m no Democrat but WTH? Crazy.

  2. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    15. May 2022 at 10:21

    Bacon, The Mitt Romney GOP is gone. This is the modern GOP.

  3. Gravatar of Larry Larry
    15. May 2022 at 13:33

    I think most of the arguments about inflation miss the real bottom line cause.

    As far as I am concerned what we are seeing is not traditional inflation but instead a failure of globalization that no one ever anticipated because so many were making so much money from the globalization of the economy.

    Why are car prices rising?

    Because we do not make the required computer chips in America.

    I doubt we will ever learn this lesson.

    Also here is a great article:

    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/05/the-washington-quid-pro-quo-and-a-comment-on-roe-v-wade.html

    It describes how Washington really works and why it does not work for American citizens anymore.

  4. Gravatar of Sarah Sarah
    15. May 2022 at 14:00

    And the JFK democrat party is gone, replaced with modern day marxist thugs who are so much more dangerous than DJT. Instead of focusing on his negatives, i.e., his personality, the fact that he doesn’t ever read, and his pension for saying really dumb things, you might want to focus more on tangible policies like lower taxes, merit based immigration, individual responsibility, freedom of speech, and states rights that conservatives generally support. And of coures they are not libertarians. But their policies will get you closer to a libertarian view than the radical left marxists.

    The democratic party has nothing to offer. They offer centralization of the state, hate speech lists, restrictions on liberty – from how high your hedges can be, to what pronouns you can use, to how you can spend your money (warren & bitcoin) – not to mention their love affair with CCP style totalitarianism, NATO expansionism, and ministry of truths.

    It sickens me that economists continue to stand on the shoulders of Ricardo. The price of a product is determined by the demand for that product. If the market is willing to pay $20 for t-shirts, and I can produce in Cambodia for $1, and there are no tariffs, then I’m going to move my production overseas. If there is a $8 tariff, then I’m probably going to keep my manufacturing center in the states, and employ Americans becuase foreign manufacturing would not increase my profit margin. Either way, I’m still selling for $20, because that is what the market will accept. You might then say, but economic theory says other competitors will lower their prices to undercut you.

    Yeah. Yeah. But….

    That isn’t going to happen, because there isn’t an equal playing field. In real life, beyond the confines of your desk, the U.S. Embassy in Cambodia vouches for XYZ company to establish their business in a tax free trade zone, which ABC company (without federal connections) cannot get because there are only limited permits. This creates a monopoly/oligopoly, and the price remains the same or increases. Such is the case in almost every industry. Technically, Ricardo was correct. But his view didn’t account for a number of variables. Variables which every consumer now understands after forty years, and which only economists continue to reject. Either you get rid of these regulations, or you face reality. The reality is that the federal government subsisidies and plays favorites (pay to play), and if that is the reality then Americans need tariffs!

    Not to mention, voting for democrats will not get you lower tariffs. Indeed, members of the democratic party favor tariffs as much as the the conservative party – particularly unemployed youth – which is precisely why Biden has kept tariffs in place.

  5. Gravatar of Anonymous Anonymous
    16. May 2022 at 00:33

    I opened TMI the other day and was surprised to see no post on solving inflation with price controls. It’s a policy fit for a banana republic, isn’t it?

  6. Gravatar of Matthias Matthias
    16. May 2022 at 02:11

    Bacon, the tweet seems to be carefully formulated to strictly only say Democrats and some unspecified bad people are doing something.

    It’s like me saying that Winston Churchill and the Nazis are eating potatoes again.

  7. Gravatar of Ricardo Ricardo
    16. May 2022 at 06:29

    “How heck do politicians get away with lumping the WH and Democrats with pedofile”?

    I’ve never seen the word written with an F before. Isn’t it Pedophile?

    Anyhow, I am willing to support this line of thinking, as long as you permit Republicans the opportunity to sue everytime you call them a racist, sexist, homophobe, xenphobe, or some other false epithet.

    I would also like to sue when you call me Latinx. You may call me Ricardo, Senor, or Sir, but please not X. I’m a human being, not an x. Thank you.

    And I would also like to sue when you make false statements, such as the Vaccine has “no risk”, Trump was secretly working for Russia (fake dossier), and call “Police racist” for stereotyping black males, who constitute 50% of all violent crimes in America, yet make up 6.8% of the population. Of course they are being stereotyped. If white men commit 50% of all violent crimes, then white men will also be stereotyped.

    Can we also sue when the FBI and IRS viciously attack conservative organizations and media outlets such as “Project Veritas” or the “Tea party”. Can we sue the Orwellian Ministry of Truth when they propagate misinformation (invetiable, because that is what governments do)? Can we sue the Guardian for posting fake news when they show a photo of Zelensky with the caption “On the front lines of war with his men”, only to find out the photo was taken in 2019 during a routine military inspection?

    Can we get due process for the January 6th prisoners — that is, either bring charges, or release them! Of course, the reason they don’t bring charges is because no Judge is going to rule that they are “terrorists”. The Judge will simply charge them with trespassing and larceny, and the democrats will have to stop the MAGA terrorist tag-line, and the fear mongering campaign.

  8. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    16. May 2022 at 09:11

    Larry, “As far as I am concerned what we are seeing is not traditional inflation but instead a failure of globalization”

    So if we removed all those Trump tariffs then inflation would be higher?

    Seriously, it’s not complicated. The high inflation is due to monetary policy.

    Sarah, “And the JFK democrat party is gone, replaced with modern day marxist thugs”

    Is this a Elise Stefanik burner account?

    And then you follow up the Marxist charge by calling for big government statist policies like protectionism. LOL.

    Anonymous, I think you are a bit confused. When I claim we are becoming a banana republic that doesn’t mean I’m advocating that transition.

    Ricardo, You said:

    “Can we get due process for the January 6th prisoners — that is, either bring charges, or release them!”

    Haven’t been charged? LOL. Get out of your epistemic bubble and join the real world.

  9. Gravatar of Anonymous Anonymous
    16. May 2022 at 09:33

    Scott, I don’t think you’re advocating for the transition. I enjoy your blog and find the posts educational. Was hoping to see your (likely negative) commentary on the idea.

  10. Gravatar of Michael Sandifer Michael Sandifer
    16. May 2022 at 10:48

    Scott,

    You didn’t know that the idea for calling people they disagree with pedophiles came from the QAnon conspiracy theories? Unfortunately, now a significant number of conservatives believe in some version of the story.

    What hope is there for bringing the country together when there’s belief that some sizable percentage of citizens and those in government are pedophile communists, or are at least okay with “grooming” children to be sexually abused?

    Ironically, these Christian nationalists claim to be the only true Americans while clearly putting their religious beliefs above the good of the country. They’d happily see American die, rather than lose the culture wars.

  11. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    16. May 2022 at 10:49

    Anonymous, Sorry, I thought you meant no post advocating price controls. I guess after the 1970s I don’t take the idea seriously enough to even bother with a post.

  12. Gravatar of Michael Sandifer Michael Sandifer
    16. May 2022 at 10:54

    Funny, by the way, that these self-described real “Americans” and “free market” types fail to realize that the countries that took trade restrictions most seriously were communist countries, which were as close to absolutely autarkic as possible. This is one reason their currencies have no value outside of their countries, and they had to engage in at least limited trade with the non-communist world to earn hard currency to fund their very limited “high techology” imports, like the licenses they bought to produce vintage early 60s fiat cars which were little changed when the USSR collapsed in 1991.

  13. Gravatar of bb bb
    16. May 2022 at 11:28

    Scott,
    Totally agree. Our fear of and obsession with Iran is irrational. We are terrified of a country whose GDP is smaller than our defense budget (not in PP, but it’s still a good point). There are many countries, to include Russia, that cause more problems in the world. Confrontation with the US keeps the Ayatollah in power. And we could use the oil. And it’s cruel to the Iranian people. One of our worst policies.
    Everything else you wrote makes perfect sense. Some of your commenters are completely unhinged.
    Thanks.

  14. Gravatar of Christian List Christian List
    16. May 2022 at 11:37

    But Russia literally invaded a European country of 40 million people. And Iran is supposed to be the bigger threat?

    Try to look at it the other way around for once: Putin invaded Ukraine in part because there were no sanctions against Russia. He used the revenues to maintain and build up the military capabilities over many years to be able to invade Ukraine in the first place.

    We had cheap energy for years, but now we have all the higher costs. Was it really worth it in the end? I don’t know.

    Imagine what Iran would do with those revenues. Here’s a hint: They wouldn’t hold peace summits in Oslo.

    😐

  15. Gravatar of Larry Larry
    16. May 2022 at 12:26

    You say:

    “So if we removed all those Trump tariffs then inflation would be higher?

    Seriously, it’s not complicated. The high inflation is due to monetary policy.”

    And that is standard economic talking points. And I think you economists have your eyes closed.

    Supply chain issues are not caused by too much money.

    Higher oil prices are not caused by too much money, but by other countries trying to take advantage of their power in the market place.

    There are political issues involved. Maybe we should allow Iran to sell all the oil it wants in the international market. Maybe Saudi Arabia has not dropped the price of its oil because it wants Trump back in the White House.

    And while you can blame American inflation on too much money, does the same argument apply to the European countries that are also suffering from higher inflation? Did these European countries send money to their citizens like we did in America? As far as I can tell, the answer is no: they did not send money to their citizens. So why are they suffering inflation like we are??????

    Keep your eyes closed.

  16. Gravatar of Michael Sandifer Michael Sandifer
    16. May 2022 at 12:46

    Yes, we need to be more fair and forward-looking with our foreign policy. We rupped up a deal we struck with Iran, which obviously undermines our credibility generally. Also, we’re the ones that destroyed the previous balance of power when we toppled the Hussein regime, letting Iran out of the box they were in. We should definitely seek a new deal with Iran that will result in them being able to sell their oil on the open market.

  17. Gravatar of Anonymous Anonymous
    17. May 2022 at 01:21

    > Anonymous, Sorry, I thought you meant no post advocating price controls. I guess after the 1970s I don’t take the idea seriously enough to even bother with a post.

    What a world it would be if everyone agreed with that sentiment! But yeah, I see how my initial comment would’ve come off as snide.

  18. Gravatar of Christian List Christian List
    17. May 2022 at 04:08

    @BB
    You can say the same thing about Russia. Why should the US be afraid of Russia? Russia only invades countries like Ukraine every few years, but certainly not the US. So why would the US care? The same with Iran. Sure, the leaders there continually say they want to wipe Israel off the map, but why should we care? These are just harmless sayings, of course, they are just barking, they just want to play. This strategy has already worked very well with Putin: He only barks, but he doesn’t bite. Marvelous strategy. It worked out so well.

    One of our worst policies.

    Again, an extremely one-sided argument. It’s not like the trade and interlocking strategy with Russia yielded any better results. How can anyone ignore that? How many countries is the sanctioned, crippled Iran invading right now? Yeah, right. Zero. They couldn’t even invade their own front yard.

  19. Gravatar of Tom M Tom M
    17. May 2022 at 05:32

    The pedo label has resonated with people on the right as a growth from the LGBTQ+ communities push to “educate” children in the public school system. It is not a conspiracy theory, it’s even in the parties platform – they aren’t even shy about it (it was in the 2020 Party-Platform).

    Is the term overloaded – for sure. But if you’re going to deny the massive push in the last decade to indoctrinate children into the sexual ideologies promulgated by the post-modernism, I suggest you go to your local school board and just sit in on a meeting.

    1) VA school board actively covered up the rape of a girl by a man claiming to be trans because they did not want to appear anti-LGBTQ+.

    2) GA – a mom was removed from the school board meeting for reading a book from the school library (for sexual content).

    3) School administrators are encouraged to hide gender transitioning from parents (this was endorsed by the current administration).

    4) Sexual abuse has increased drastically, even the Department of Education recognizes cases have more than doubled from ~9,600 in 2016 to over 20,000 in 2021.

    People on the right are called bigots because they don’t want school administrators (who let’s be honest, are some of the most intellectually challenged people in our society) working with their children on highly sensitive developmental issues? As a person who is pretty much middle of the road on almost all issues – this is one the left is clearly way off base on.

    Pedo, racist, bigot – these are all just hyperbolic terms that help fuel the base for each party. Probably a little truth to all of them.

    It’s also worth noting, with the Jeffrey Epstein scandal – many high ranking people on the left got roped into that. So it’s not exactly a great look when you are the party that basically covered up and defended child molesters for decades out of political convenience, and now you are wanting to push sexual education programs that clearly sexualize children.

    Stick with the more economic pieces – you’re out of your depth when you jump into politics. The “ORANGE MAN BAD” feel of some of these posts makes them hard to read.

  20. Gravatar of msgkings msgkings
    17. May 2022 at 07:00

    @Tom M:

    It’s not surprising you find criticism of your orange god as ‘hard to read’.

  21. Gravatar of bb bb
    17. May 2022 at 07:11

    @christian,
    The Russia situation is entirely different from Iran because Russia is a nuclear power. If Russia didn’t have nukes we would have declared a no fly zone at minimum.
    Iran will likely have nukes if we continue on our current path which will make them much harder to deal with.

  22. Gravatar of bb bb
    17. May 2022 at 07:20

    Tom,
    I live in Virginia, and claim number 1 is false. I assume your other examples are also false or greatly distorted. It’s possible that you don’t get your news from the best places.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/28/opinion/loudoun-county-trans.html
    As for the pedo label. It is appalling that the third highest ranking Member of the House Minority feels comfortable referring to Democrats (not some but all) as pedophiles. I’m not aware of a member of Democratic leadership doing something similar. We’re not talking about a backbencher like MTG, although she is truly shameful, but a member of leadership?

  23. Gravatar of Michael S Rulle Michael S Rulle
    17. May 2022 at 08:07

    https://www.ccn.com/people-behind-qanon-have-been-revealed/

    A photo of the “founder” of QAnon–a guy named Watson–nicknamed Q–(like the Star trek character). A picture really is worth a 1000 words—-of course, who knows who this guy is—–but others think the “real” Q is another guy from South Africa.
    This is figured out by using “linguistic algorithms” from his “Q drops” which are in “secret code”. I give Scott credit this time for not mentioning QAnon as real—although he has been called a pedophile—which is one of “Q”‘s characterizations of QAnon”s members—

    This is still my favorite joke.

  24. Gravatar of Michael S Rulle Michael S Rulle
    17. May 2022 at 08:20

    PS– I should have said “founder of the Q conspiracy theory” —-It really does make me laugh—-lightens my dreary days.

  25. Gravatar of Tom M Tom M
    17. May 2022 at 09:31

    @bb

    I’m confused, what exactly was “the big lie” here?
    1) The student was raped.
    2) The school authorities lied about it.
    3) Members of the school board knew the facts and knowingly lied about it.
    4) The boy was transferred to another school (where he also committed another sexual assault).
    5) The school board was preparing to announce a new trans policy during pride month (which this obviously would have looked bad w/).

    All of those things happened.

    I think we can all agree the pedo label is appalling, but let’s not pretend this type of thing is not/has not been the norm in politics forever. Joe Biden (does he still qualify as Democratic leadership) said that Mitt Romney wanted to put African American’s back in chains. That seems pretty bad? Mitt Romney is probably one of the cleanest people in American politics and he was routinely labeled a racist and sexist by the Dem. leadership at the time.

    Also to Ricardo’s point earlier… people on the right are DAILY called racist, sexist, homophobe, xenphobe, etc.

    Left/Right – they are all the same. Trump was awful, just like Biden is awful, just like whoever gets rolled out next will probably be awful. Break the cycle – vote The Rock 2024.

  26. Gravatar of Dzhaughn Dzhaughn
    17. May 2022 at 09:43

    Nah, Stefanik said “pedo.” What she meant is “pedi” meaning those who get their toenails clipped professionally, a mild anti-elitist slur. The sentiment is in fact reified by the spelling error.
    Cf. Arnold Kling about reading things in the most favorable light.

    If you read her tweet as “pedophile,” it is as good as a confession. Take that!

    Nevertheless, as someone who noticed (or invented) the spelling error, and used the word “reified” (and “Cf.” to boot!) I remain the mortal enemy of Stefanik. She’s probably a [sic] pedocide. Keep your shoes on around her.

  27. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    17. May 2022 at 09:58

    Larry, How are all those trade barriers helping the infant formula milk market? Free trade expands supply, bringing down prices.

    And Europe has less NGDP growth because they’ve had a less expansionary monetary policy.

    Tom, Can you explain to me why almost every time I see a politician accused of pedophilia it’s a Republican? Just curious.

    With the world facing very serious problems like Covid and the Ukraine war, you expect me to be obsessed with stupid demagogic GOP attacks on gays and trans people?

    “It’s also worth noting, with the Jeffrey Epstein scandal – many high ranking people on the left got roped into that.”

    Wait, You are saying that Donald Trump is “on the left”?

  28. Gravatar of Tom M Tom M
    17. May 2022 at 10:18

    @Scott

    Jeffrey Epstein was a major democratic donor – also, Donald Trump WAS a democrat for most of his life. I don’t think he fits the traditional left/right model. Also even if we were to put him in the conservative/right category there – Jeffrey Epstein’s known associates were vastly democratic so finding one or two who weren’t doesn’t disprove the point.

    “Can you explain to me why almost every time I see a politician accused of pedophilia it’s a Republican? Just curious.”

    I’m confused here as the VASTE majority of high profile pedophilia cases in the US have revolved around large democratic donors/politicians? Anthony Weiner, Harvey Weinstein, Asia Argento, Garey Recker, Ed Murray, Jacob Schwartz, Jared Fogle (Subway), Carl Carey…

    For Republicans/activists the major ones that come to mind are- Peter Dibble, Dan Crane, Beverly Russell, Jeffrey Patti, Andrew Buhr.

    I am sure there is A LOT more in each category- but without a doubt, the higher profile “pedophile” cases have been on the democratic side.

    I also don’t want this to be confused with me advocating for Republicans – I think the trap is thinking either of these parties aren’t filled with monsters… I’m just saying, the label fits the democratic party a lot better and that’s why it’s caught on for the right.

  29. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    17. May 2022 at 10:26

    “For Republicans/activists the major ones that come to mind are- Peter Dibble, Dan Crane, Beverly Russell, Jeffrey Patti, Andrew Buhr.”

    LOL. Those are the major cases that come to mind? Really?

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/04/from-hastert-to-gaetz-lets-talk-about-republicans-and-sex-crimes.html

  30. Gravatar of foosion foosion
    17. May 2022 at 11:43

    A reasonable guide to Republican crimes and problems is to look at their accusations against Democrats. Voting fraud and attempts to steal elections – seems all the clear cases are GOP, Hunter Biden corruption – see Trump family, most recently including multi-billion investment from Saudi Arabia, pedophilia – see Scott’s link, etc., etc.

  31. Gravatar of Christian List Christian List
    17. May 2022 at 11:51

    Iran will likely have nukes if we continue on our current path which will make them much harder to deal with.

    @bb
    Maybe we should just stick to the hard facts and leave the wishful thinking and the ideologies behind:

    Iran has been saying since the 1980s that it wants nuclear weapons at all costs, but has been under heavy sanctions ever since. So why have they never achieved nuclear weapons? What in the world is taking them so long? They don’t have the revenues and the technologies because of the sanctions. Basically, it’s as simple as that. Lift the sanctions and they will immediately build useable nuclear weapons.

    Then we have a country called Russia, where the German core strategy was: “Wandel durch Handel”, meaning “change through trade”. However, there was never any real change. Putin just grabbed most of the revenue for his agenda. There was negative change at best, we have seen military buildup and invasions of several neighboring countries.

    And your conclusion is seriously: Let’s do with Iran what we did with Russia and everything will turn out fine. Sorry, but that is extremely naive.

    P.S. A no-fly zone at least in the Western part of Ukraine would be quite easy to enforce. Nuclear weapons are simply an absurd, craven, welcome excuse.

    The pre-commitment to this rigid course by Biden has basically undermined the entire NATO promise. No one can now seriously believe that Biden would activate Article 5 just because a small NATO country was being invaded by Putin’s Russia. Biden himself has repeated a dozen times by now that a confrontation Americans versus Russians means World War III. So why would he intervene directly? He simply wouldn’t.

    Biden has tied his own hands, one can basically dissolve NATO now. It’s just an act, maybe always was, but now the deception and the masquerade are gone for good, Biden has said so, and that’s just the death for any good act.

  32. Gravatar of Tom M Tom M
    17. May 2022 at 12:06

    @Scott

    Lol you’re right! I forgot about Roy Moore and Gaetz especially. Like I said, they are all monsters.

    But also remember, I’m not saying Republicans arent LESS guilty, I’m just saying the public profile for many of the Democratic individuals was higher.

    You were asking where the insult came from, I’m just pointing out that’s probably where it came from.

  33. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    18. May 2022 at 08:34

    Tom, I was talking about politicians, not movie producers.

  34. Gravatar of bb bb
    18. May 2022 at 10:01

    @Tom,
    Good points. Wasn’t aware that the Superintendent misled a folks at a school board meeting. I will say that the incident was portrayed as though a girl was assaulted because a trans girl had access to the girls bathroom, which was not the case. It’s not clear to me that he misled the crowd because of the pride month announcement. It could be that the crowd was a mob. You’re obviously aware of the countless incidents of right wing protesters threatening and even stalking school board members. But, I was wrong to say your statements were false.
    However, I do think the events you cite warrant the pedophile or grooming accusation. Both are old anti-gay tropes, and I believe intended as dog whistles. And the pedo thing is nod to the Q people, who are truly unhinged.
    You also go me on the Biden thing, even if it was ten years ago, and an isolated event.
    You got me on both counts though. Hats off.

  35. Gravatar of Larry Larry
    18. May 2022 at 10:06

    Here’s inflation rates for European Countries:

    Albania 6.2 5.7 Apr/22 %
    Austria 7.2 6.8 Apr/22 %
    Belarus 16.8 15.9 Apr/22 %
    Belgium 8.31 8.31 Apr/22 %
    Bosnia and Herzegovina 10.2 8.1 Mar/22 %
    Bulgaria 14.4 12.4 Apr/22 %
    Croatia 9.4 7.3 Apr/22 %
    Cyprus 8.8 7.1 Apr/22 %
    Czech Republic 14.2 12.7 Apr/22 %
    Denmark 6.7 5.4 Apr/22 %
    Estonia 18.8 15.2 Apr/22 %
    Euro Area 7.4 7.4 Apr/22 %
    European Union 8.1 7.8 Apr/22 %
    Faroe Islands 4.4 3.4 Mar/22 %
    Finland 5.7 5.8 Apr/22 %
    France 4.8 4.5 Apr/22 %
    Germany 7.4 7.3 Apr/22 %
    Greece 10.2 8.9 Apr/22 %
    Hungary 9.5 8.5 Apr/22 %
    Iceland 7.2 6.7 Apr/22 %
    Ireland 7 6.7 Apr/22 %
    Italy 6 6.5 Apr/22 %
    Kosovo 11.2 10 Apr/22 %
    Latvia 13 11.5 Apr/22 %
    Liechtenstein 1.5 1.5 Dec/21 %
    Lithuania 16.8 15.7 Apr/22 %
    Luxembourg 7 6.1 Apr/22 %
    Macedonia 10.5 8.8 Apr/22 %
    Malta 4.5 4.2 Mar/22 %
    Moldova 27.1 22.2 Apr/22 %
    Montenegro 11.2 9.7 Apr/22 %
    Netherlands 9.6 9.7 Apr/22 %
    Norway 5.4 4.5 Apr/22 %
    Poland 12.4 11 Apr/22 %
    Portugal 7.2 5.3 Apr/22 %
    Romania 13.76 10.15 Apr/22 %
    Russia 17.8 16.7 Apr/22 %
    Serbia 9.6 9.1 Apr/22 %
    Slovakia 11.8 10.4 Apr/22 %
    Slovenia 6.9 5.4 Apr/22 %
    Spain 8.3 9.8 Apr/22 %
    Sweden 6.4 6 Apr/22 %
    Switzerland 2.5 2.4 Apr/22 %
    Turkey 69.97 61.14 Apr/22 %
    Ukraine 16.4 13.7 Apr/22 %
    United Kingdom 9 7 Apr/22 %

    Keep your eyes closed.

  36. Gravatar of bb bb
    18. May 2022 at 10:22

    @Christian,
    I don’t endorse the German approach. You don’t mention Shroder’s pipeline, which was a complete betrayal to Poland, not to mention Ukraine.
    N Korean has had sanctions against it and managed to build out its nuclear capability. And they did suspend their program prior to us backing out of the nuclear deal. I think it is naive to believe that Iran’s program is not a matter of time, unless they agree o suspend it.
    I have not heard many, if any, serious people who think a no-fly zone would be “easy”, but then again I also didn’t think trade wars were easy either. The fact is that Russia and the US have long standing rules for proxy wars which helped us avoid a nuclear conflict for over half a century. A no-fly zone would violate those rules, and thus be quite reckless. And why would we do that when our current strategy is working extremely well.
    I also think you are wrong to criticize Biden. He is managing a large coalition. You don’t know what the reaction from our coalition partners would be if he announced a no-fly zone. Would Germany support that- I don’t think so?
    I have no idea what you mean here:
    “Biden has tied his own hands, one can basically dissolve NATO now. It’s just an act, maybe always was, but now the deception and the masquerade are gone for good, Biden has said so, and that’s just the death for any good act.”
    NATO is as strong now as it has ever been, and nothing Biden has said or done would call into question American’s commitment to its NATO partners. And Biden’s strategy has made Russia incapable of threatening NATO countries in the near future. I don’t think I’m the naive one here.

  37. Gravatar of R R
    18. May 2022 at 11:30

    Scott,
    While bringing up Hunter Biden you neglected to point out that it was in 2017 under the Trump administration that the US began to provide Ukraine with “lethal aid” i.e. weapons.

  38. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    18. May 2022 at 11:50

    Larry, You don’t seem to realize that your original comment had absolutely no bearing on this post. I mentioned NGDP growth because that’s relevant to the question of whether the European inflation is driven by supply or demand factors. Your inflation data doesn’t help.

    Never reason from a price change.

    “Keep your eyes closed.”

    Keep your mind closed.

    R, I “neglected” to point it out because it’s obviously totally irrelevant to what I said. Right?

    I didn’t say Trump wouldn’t provide aid, I said he’d first demand they dig up dirt on Biden. Do you disagree?

  39. Gravatar of R R
    18. May 2022 at 12:29

    I think it’s debatable. In 2017 he initiated the policy to provide lethal aid. There was no apparent demands for digging. He eventually did set demands as the election approached. Given he would not be eligible for reelection that seems to reduce the likelihood of chicanery.

  40. Gravatar of Nikola Nikola
    18. May 2022 at 15:15

    Here are America’s top four problems:

    1. The Globalists! Contrary to the layman’s view, Globalists do not support free trade. These are the people that “control” the laws and regulations of foreign countries through NGO’s and state departments, and push a feudalistic, mercantile, monopolistic, plutocratic agenda upon the population. Anytime your government tells you they made a “trade deal” — what they are really saying is that they made a deal with the “right people”, “right companies”, and for “the right industries”. But who are these people, companies and industries? Of course, those that pay to play! You’ll find these bizarre people at the WEF, the Bilderberg group, and on news channels like CNN where they call for regulation on investment, technology, alternative modes of payment, and other perceived threats to their business model. It’s not “free trade”.

    2. Democrats. Yep, these historical bigots – from slavery, to Jim crow, to modern day church shootings, to dabbling in white man equals bad, latins are all “x”, infanticide, and Eco-fascism like the lunatic in Buffalo, have never understood that the most scarce resource is a person’s body, and that labor is an extension of their body. These neanderthals claim to support minorities, but they don’t support the greatest minority: namely, the individual. The contradiction abounds. These people are using collective force to take 40% of your labor. They have no respect for individual rights, and are the most arrogant, pseudo-scientific party that has existed since the old catholic order.

    3. Self conceit, or as Hayek called it, Fatal conceit. Lot of academics getting watered down degrees. They are frauds in every sense of the word. They don’t read; they don’t think critically; and their so-called original ideas are nothing of the sort.

    4. China. Nothing creepier than a totalitarian dystopia hell bent on destroying you. War is inevitable.

    America have become so entrenched in their mercantilism that they are now threatening sanctions upon African countries that don’t agree with their foreign policy agenda.

    Just take a look at this bill titled: “the countering malign Russian activities Africa act”.

    I wonder if that has anything to do with South America refusing to attend Biden’s “America Summit”, which he canceled after Mexico, Argentina, Brazil and Colombia denied the invitation. Or perhaps it might have something to do with India and Saudi Arabia refusing to listen to Biden’s unsolicited moral advice after twenty years of destabilization.

    Or perhaps they just didn’t feel “woke enough” to attend.

  41. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    18. May 2022 at 15:52

    R, “Given he would not be eligible for reelection that seems to reduce the likelihood of chicanery.”

    With nothing to fear from voters we can expect Trump to stop acting like a corrupt authoritarian? Okay . . . .

    Nikola, How’s Putin’s war in Ukraine working out for the Russians?

  42. Gravatar of R R
    18. May 2022 at 19:57

    First there is the authoritarian contention. He clearly wishes he were a strongman but given the perfect storm (nationwide riots to impose martial law) and a pandemic (lockdowns etc.) he exhibited a remarkably light touch…especially compared to democracy loving democratic governors. I suspect his focus would be more on things that would be self enriching, like actually hosting the g8 summit at doral.

  43. Gravatar of Larry Larry
    19. May 2022 at 10:16

    Scott you said: “Seriously, it’s not complicated. The high inflation is due to monetary policy.” And ” How are all those trade barriers helping the infant formula milk market? Free trade expands supply, bringing down prices.”

    My argument is that there are a host of other issues causing ‘inflation’ And I prefer to think of it as devaluing the dollar.

    When you site milk formula trade barriers you are correct. Trump initiated changes that made it more difficult to import the milk. So the issue here is not monetary policy it is political policy. And another issue with the milk problem is that there are only 3 major producers of milk in the US. So the industry is no longer really free and competitive. When the Abbott factory had to be closed due to health issues the milk disappeared. But again this is not about monetary policy. It is more about oligarchy and monopoly.

    Sure free trade can be a great virtue but my point is that during this crisis globalization has become the problem rather than the solution.

    It was nice when we could exploit those cheap workers overseas to produce goods for us but now we are seeing the other side of the problem. Globalization can crash and burn.

    And as far as I can see traditional economists just ignore and understate this issue.

    I have read in the past though I could not relocate it that some US military equipment uses electronics imported from China.

    Pretty stupid don’t you think.

  44. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    19. May 2022 at 14:32

    R, I guess if you count trying to overturn the 2020 election as a “light touch”.

    Larry, You said:

    “Sure free trade can be a great virtue but my point is that during this crisis globalization has become the problem rather than the solution.”

    Just the opposite, Trade barriers have made our problems much worse than it needed to be. The larger the market to draw on, the more dependable the supply.

    “Pretty stupid don’t you think.”

    I’d have to know the details. How important was the component? Are alternative supplies available? Does the military keep a stock of replacements? What sort of war are we expecting to fight with China? A WWII-style land war” A nuclear war? I’d need more info.

  45. Gravatar of Jenna Jenna
    20. May 2022 at 05:26

    Has anyone else noticed a disturbing pattern in the media recently, or is it just me?

    Ever since Elon Musk tried to buy twitter, almost every media organization has attacked him like a pack of wolves. They attack his “privileged youth”, remove his company from EDG index, and then run bizarre stories about his “company culture” and, according to newsweek, an “attempted rape”. Does anyone really believe this?

    Where were these stories a few months ago? Why now?

    I’m voting republican now. I guess enough is enough. The coordinated hit pieces, and targeted lawsuits are looking more and more like Mao’s China.

  46. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    20. May 2022 at 08:36

    Jenna, LOL, Musk is toying with you. Don’t believe his tweets.

    “The coordinated hit pieces, and targeted lawsuits are looking more and more like Mao’s China.”

    Yes, Mao’s China had lots of targeted lawsuits.

  47. Gravatar of foosion foosion
    20. May 2022 at 09:00

    Musk has long benefited from incredibly favorable media coverage. Now that he perceives some issues, he decides to play the victim card, a common GOP strategy. As Scott write, don’t believe his tweets.

  48. Gravatar of Larry Larry
    20. May 2022 at 12:44

    You said: “I’d have to know the details. How important was the component? Are alternative supplies available? Does the military keep a stock of replacements? What sort of war are we expecting to fight with China? A WWII-style land war” A nuclear war? I’d need more info.”

    While I could not find the article I had read a while ago here are some more:

    https://www.c4isrnet.com/opinion/2021/06/23/its-more-than-chips-the-us-has-a-dangerous-reliance-on-defense-electronics/

    https://www.foxnews.com/us/semiconductors-101-computer-chips-shortages-national-security-concerns

    https://techxplore.com/news/2021-04-microchip-confound-pentagon.html

    https://techxplore.com/news/2021-03-global-semiconductor-shortage-small-world.html

    Bottom line: we are dependent on international suppliers for our military equipment.

  49. Gravatar of Michael Sandifer Michael Sandifer
    20. May 2022 at 16:26

    If we’re expecting to fight a war with China, our policy has failed. Our goal right now should be to be powerful enough, along with our allies, such that war is unthinkable. And we should use our combined power to try to settle as many conflicts in east Asia as possible right now, as time is on China’s side, assuming they keep growing faster than the US. Of course, India could end up being a better growth story for the rest of the century, but it remains to be seen.

  50. Gravatar of Michael Sandifer Michael Sandifer
    20. May 2022 at 16:28

    For those who don’t normally read my comments, I should point out that we should have as much free trade as possible, and get China as entangled in international law as possible.

  51. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    20. May 2022 at 16:29

    Michael, Yup. Isn’t the whole point of our nuclear weapons to deter China (and Russia) from attacking us?

    If you want peace, prepare for war.

  52. Gravatar of Michael Sandifer Michael Sandifer
    21. May 2022 at 10:27

    Scott,

    Yes, and so the question is, will we make invading Taiwan unthinkable? The way to do so, I’d think, is to setup the defenses in Taiwan such that China would have to cause too much damage to the island economy to make it worth taking, in addition to being costly in terms of China’s resources. That said, fascist leaders aren’t always rational.

    Ultimately, Japan and Australia could have nukes very easily, particularly if the US wants them to, so invading them could be made unthinkable, if it isn’t already. I would think it already is.

    Invading India should be unthinkable, for obvious reasons.

    And, of course, I don’t think that China wants to invade another country presently, with the possible exception of Taiwan, which officially isn’t a country.

    So, the more realistic threat going forward, assuming military resistance remains strong, could be Chinese influence on the internal politics of some of its neighbors, through corruption and soft power carrots and sticks.

  53. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    22. May 2022 at 07:15

    Michael, You said:

    “So, the more realistic threat going forward, assuming military resistance remains strong, could be Chinese influence on the internal politics of some of its neighbors, through corruption and soft power carrots and sticks.”

    I agree. But the point I keep coming back to is that this is a relatively minor problem compared to the other problems that we see around the world (such as the Ukraine war.) We can live with this problem.

  54. Gravatar of Michael Sandifer Michael Sandifer
    22. May 2022 at 10:35

    Scott,

    Yes, and my point is that China is a relatively minor problem now, from the perspective of our hemisphere or Europe, but can obviously, potentially become a tremendously bigger problem than any Russia can present in the long run. I’m not convinced that will be the case, as China faces some serious challenges in trying to reach beyond middle income status one day, but it’s not implausible that China could be very, very dangerous as time goes on.

    This is why another point you sometimes make is so important, in addition to my point that the US has to become more coherent, forward-looking, and strategic with its foreign policy. We have to stop being so hypocritical and arbitrary with how we sometimes wield our power and otherwise present ourselves, because the conflict with China, to the degree it continues to develop, will be mostly one of ideas. We should make the choice people have to make about which side to join as clear as possible.

  55. Gravatar of Michael Sandifer Michael Sandifer
    22. May 2022 at 11:15

    Another way of expressing my concern is to say that, if China feels bold enough already to openly flaunt territorial claims that clearly contradict international law, we’re failing in our mission and are less compelling as an ally in Asia than we should be. The fact that time is likely on China’s side, but they’re already comfortable enough to threaten the international order in Asia is disturbing. Part of this is likely overreach by Xi, as nationalists tend to overreach, but it certainly means we have not made a regional war against us and our allies unthinkable enough.

    Yes, we’re safe here in our hemisphere for the foreseeable future, but our interests are somewhat less safe in the future if China becomes an Asian hegemon and can begin considering projecting significant power beyond their region.

  56. Gravatar of Michael Sandifer Michael Sandifer
    23. May 2022 at 10:02

    Has anyone noticed how these Christian nationalists project? Does it surprise many that a recent investigation concluded that the Southern Baptist Convention protected pedophiles while ignoring complaints of sexual abuse from victimized children?

    https://apnews.com/article/baptist-religion-sexual-abuse-by-clergy-southern-convention-bfdbe64389790630488f854c3dae3fd5

    I wonder how many of those calling the author here a pedophile are or have been members of a southern baptist church? How about the Catholic church?

Leave a Reply