So what’s your point?
Here’s a typical recent headline, this one in Bloomberg:
Wuhan’s Covid Cases May Have Been 10 Times Higher, Study Shows
And the two subheads:
- Some 500,000 may have been infected in China’s virus epicenter
- China has been criticized for allegedly undercounting its data
And the first paragraph:
The scale of the Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan early this year may have been nearly 10 times the recorded tally, a study conducted by China’s public health authorities indicates, leaving the city where the coronavirus first took hold still well short of the immunity required to protect against a potential resurgence.
I don’t get it. What are readers supposed to take away from this story? It sort of reminds me of the big news story that SOMEONE DIED IN THE COVID VACCINE TEST (after taking a placebo.)
Yes, early in the year China underreported the Covid case count by nearly a factor of 10, as did Europe and (to a lesser extent) the US.
But why is this news today? We’ve known this all along, as the official death count in Wuhan was around 3000 or 4000, and (in China) slightly less than 1% of people die of the disease. Everyone knew that lots of people with mild symptoms were not being tested early in the epidemic, both in China and around the world. More recently, testing has ramped up in many countries. But China’s cases almost all occurred in the first quarter of 2020.
So what’s the point of this “news” story? There is no point, other than for the media to pat itself on the back for being tough on China.
If Bloomberg believes the recent Chinese study, why not a headline saying, “Antibody studies show American right wing accusations of 40,000 dead in Wuhan were fake news”. That would actually be useful.
I could find dozens of similar examples of such non-stories, such as this recent CNN news example, which reported the “scandal” that estimated case counts in China were suddenly boosted at a later date, just as in Europe and the US.
There’s plenty of negative news to report on China, including concentration camps in Xinjiang, the crackdown on Hong Kong, and the steadily diminishing amount of free speech. Why go out of your way to make up fake scandals?
In contrast, this recent FT report is actually useful:
The EU and China have announced a long-awaited deal on an investment treaty, in a move that is aimed at opening up lucrative new corporate opportunities but risks antagonising president-elect Joe Biden’s incoming US administration.
The accord was confirmed by Chinese President Xi Jinping and EU leaders including European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday, bringing seven years of often difficult negotiations to a successful close.
We should criticize the Chinese government and trade with the Chinese people.
Tags:
30. December 2020 at 11:34
And “CCP” Sumner is back faster than ever.
Actually, the USA is overreporting cases. Just sit down with MD’s and they will admit it. The hospitals get a govt stipend if the death is Covid related. UK claims to be “overrun” with covid patients, yet their hospitals in Glasgow are empty. A woman had the guts to video tape the empty hospital and she was arrested. Apparently, “liberalism” in Sumner’s crazy view of the word now involves arresting truth tellers. Meanwhile NHS is not taking other patients who are waiting in line for surgery. Nationalized heath care is so wonderful right Sumner? Keeping voting Dem! It’s working out real well for you.
China underreported by A LOT! They jailed the person who had the courage to tell the world that something really awful was going on in Wuhan. Instead of shut down the borders, they let people from Wuhan board planes. And in regards to death: it’s more than 10x. The morgues were completely full, and still are, despite very few cases. Amazing how morgues can be overrun by bodies when the virus is “under control”.
CCP = Hitler 2.0. Admit it publicly.
Support Jimmy Lai.
Support Hong Kong
Support Taiwan.
Failure to do so publicly shows you are simply a CCP stooge.
30. December 2020 at 12:25
So Trump is voted most admired man, yet somehow loses the election to a man nobody admires? Unlikely!
Georgia election hearing today showed the election was rigged.
Anyone who says there is no evidence (Hint: “Scott Sumner”) is not looking very hard. Those witnesses were credible, and their stories were horrifying. Biden should be arrested.
Despite this massive evidence, Sumner still refuses to acknowledge the fraud. He still writes propaganda articles for the CCP. Even something a simple as a news title agonizes him into writing a rebuttal. Does that remind anyone else of Xi agonizing over Winnie the pooh? Or Xi’s nightmares over the two big beautiful words “freedom and Liberty”. We have two peas in a pod.
30. December 2020 at 14:40
I wonder if this is how Sumner got involved financially with the CCP.
https://thenationalpulse.com/exclusive/media-private-ccp-dinners-trips/
A private dinner? Or Perhaps he was taped having intercourse with a young Chinese student, then blackmailed?
Lot of possibilities. As you see, the CNN and NYT are at the top of the list of luxury CCP dinners.
30. December 2020 at 16:07
Hi Scott. Just letting you know that more than one person read this post. Me and xu/jayne/henry.
@xu/jayne/henry: do you need some new names for your sock puppet accounts? How about trying a few capital letters to throw us off? biLLy? caiTLin? Or the ever popular iMnotKrAZyYoUaRE.
30. December 2020 at 16:24
The best thing we could have done was report with gratitude and admiration for the heroism and skill of Li Wenliang and Zhang Yongzhen, instead of harping on the Wuhan officials behavior in the first weeks of the pandemic. By highlighting Li and Zhang’s behavior instead of harping on the fact that government officials’ first instinct was to cover things up, we probably would have increased the likelihood that more people will behave like Li and Zhang in future. Instead, we came out looking like jingoists who care more about establishing our own victimhood than adults looking for ways to control this pandemic and improve cooperation and coordination for the next one.
30. December 2020 at 16:37
The real story is the true origin of the Wuhan virus.
If pandemics are the result of virus manipulation in a bsl-4 lab, that’s literally everyone’s business, and everyone has a right to know.
Beijing has imprisoned a female journalist for trying to do her job regarding Wuhan virus origins. She shows signs of torture.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/china/news/us-eu-urge-release-of-wuhan-citizen-journalist/
Xi Jinping is telling China subjects the Wuhan virus source was imported frozen seafood. They have repeatedly banned frozen seafood imports, citing the virus.
But it is wonderful Western multinationals want to make money and enrich Xi Jinping-CCP through commercial agreements.
30. December 2020 at 17:50
We should criticize the Chinese government and trade with the Chinese people.
Except the Chinese government earns income from exports to the US and that income is used to buy military assets and threaten/bully everyone on their region.
You could have used to same argument with Nazi Germany and let’s not be under any pretense, the PRC is a modern version of the NAZI regime… concentration camps and all.
30. December 2020 at 18:32
Whoops
CCP not PRC.
30. December 2020 at 19:34
@JC1
You’re using the wrong analogy. If you have to pick a World War analogy—and it’s dangerous to lean too hard on historical analogies—I’d say the First World War is a better one. China is not Nazi Germany planning to invade its neighbors in search of lebensraum. We are at far more risk of stumbling into war because one or both sides overreact to a non-existential threat than we are to stumble into war because we failed to strangle a would be world conqueror in his crib.
30. December 2020 at 20:10
We should criticize the Chinese government and trade with the Chinese people.–Scott Sumner
But how many large Chinese companies are unaffiliated with the CCP? In practical terms, zero.
Let alone, circa 1940, “We should trade with the Japanese people, and ignore that the government of Japan just occupied Manchuria and raped Nanking.”
And what if a nation, as outlined by Michael Pettis, essentially represses labor share of income? Fine and dandy?
I happen to like the Han Chinese, but then I happen to like most everybody (is there a country with less friendly people than the US?).
But for 40 years we have been hearing about how trade would “liberalize” China. Instead, the opposite has happened.
30. December 2020 at 20:14
Scott,
agree on the media but it goes far beyond the China issue. For all the actual awfulness of Trump for example, I got really tired reading day after day on sites such as, say, CNN, about how Trump says untruths and bullies people. That story tells me nothing new since 2016. And yet it is to this day a permanent headline in non-Fox News US media. Another issue is the addiction to favorite subject areas that are currently en vogue, say, transgender issues. It seems like every day I open some US media, there is one story about Trump = awfwul, and one story about transgender people.
Yes, Trump is awful. Yes, transgender people used to be marginalized in the US. But I want news, and on a variety of societally significant subjects. Is this or that legislation good or bad (even though Trump is awful). Are human rights in general making progress, including whether people are free to represent themselves as they see fit in society, e.g., about which gender they project.
Most of all I would have liked a serious effort by the media to find out why so many people still support Trump and his meanness. The media have been entirely useless here. Since 2016, they simply “can’t believe this is happening”. Hardly ever did they investigate why. Until they do so, Trumpism will remain even when Trump is gone, as Peronism remained in Argentina when Peron was gone.
So I am also tired of the “liberal US media”. It’s not because they’re so liberal, or wrong. It’s because they endlessly harp on their pet issues, whether there’s news in them or not, whether they’re significant or now. Lazy reporting and a pretty massive bias towards a handful of favorite subjects.
30. December 2020 at 23:14
Since it is the end of the year, here is a possible good news story, somewhat related to this topic.
https://www.sciencealert.com/the-actual-number-of-covid-19-cases-is-far-higher-than-official-figures-in-many-nations
So, it may the actual COVID-19 count is about six times reported, as most people do not have any symptoms or only mild symptoms.
The US just hit 20 million reported cases. OK, six times that is 120 million, and the country is rolling out vaccines, maybe 20 million a month.
My guess is the worst is over, maybe by January.
The public health sector is ramping up the target higher and higher for herd immunity, but maybe we see a fizzling out soon of the Wuhan virus.
Happy New Year everyone. It has been a doozy.
31. December 2020 at 00:30
JC1, you make the impression of being out-of-touch with reality.
If China is bullying and threatening everyone in the region then it seems to be only mildly because on 2020 Nov 15 the RCEP trade agreement was signed and it appears 14 countries want to get into this with China. 14 countries is almost everyone in the region since Papua New Guinea doesn’t have a big economy.
If China is like the Nazis because of Muslim persecution then wouldn’t that make Trump Nazi because he approved of it?
31. December 2020 at 00:47
China Is Making It Harder to Solve the Mystery of How Covid Began
Investigators may never know how Covid-19 emerged in the country — and how to stop it from happening again.
Bloomberg News
December 31, 2020, 4:00 AM GMT+7
In the year since seafood hawkers started appearing at Wuhan’s hospitals sickened with a strange and debilitating pneumonia, the world has learned a lot about Covid-19, from the way it spreads to how to inoculate against the infection. Despite these advances, a chasm remains in our understanding of the virus that’s killed nearly 2 million people and whipsawed the global economy: we still don’t know how it began.
Where the pathogen first emerged and how it transmitted to humans is a stubborn mystery, one that’s becoming more elusive with each passing month. Before the initial cluster among stall-holders at a produce market in central China, the trail largely goes cold, and the country the novel coronavirus hit first — the place many blame for unleashing the disease on an under-prepared world — now has little incentive to help find the true origin of the greatest public health emergency in a century.
—30—
Hey, Bloomberg said it, not me.
31. December 2020 at 00:50
“My guess is the worst is over, maybe by January.”
It looks like the worst may have been last week when cases were up 1.2% a day but recently up 1.0% a day over the past seven days.
Covid-19 deaths per day on average fell in the past seven days:
Oct 27 to Nov 2…….800
Nov 3 to Nov 9……1,000
Nov 10 to Nov 16….1,100
Nov 17 to Nov 23….1,500
Nov 24 to Nov 30….1,400
Dec 1 to Dec 7……2,200
Dec 8 to Dec 14…..2,400
Dec 15 to Dec 21….2,700 <– peak?
Dec 22 to Dec 30….2,100
31. December 2020 at 02:13
mbka,
Yes, the media has largely functioned as a conduit for Trump propaganda by insisting on reporting everything Trump says. This is another example of reporting noise rather than news(signal), since Trump lies so often. If the media is really interested in best serving it’s audience and the country, it would only report on what Trump actually does, as opposed to what he says.
31. December 2020 at 02:31
It’s one thing to be paranoid about what Scott himself has said is a fascist CCP. It’s quite another to completely ignore the threat Putin represents, which as Scott points out, is a much bolder, immediate one to US interests. I suspect this is not a coincidence.
31. December 2020 at 02:42
Michael,
agree that Putin is the main external threat. China is cooperative internationally even though repressive internally. But on Trump, I don’t see the actions any better than the words. US presidents were created for the purpose of foreign policy and they still don’t call the shots domestically. In foreign policy Trump has been the proverbial elephant in the China shop, pun not necessarily limited to China. Those international relationships and treaties Trump tore up were immensely useful, not just to the world, but to the US itself. Trump did a huge amount of the US shooting itself in both feet. And domestically, the president doesn’t have much say, so you can’t credit him with much, save his orgy of misguided and often nullified executive orders.
31. December 2020 at 04:16
mbka,
I think Trump did almost nothing that was good. Some of the tax reform was good, but Trump just signed a bill he knew little about. Some deregulation is good, but reckless deregulation is not.
Trump is an idiotic, evil, narcissistic incompetent, who’s likely also senile. What makes you think I was defending him?
The media should only focus on what he does, as he lies so often. Nothing that he does is altruistic, and little he does just happens to be in the public interest.
31. December 2020 at 04:36
Michael,
“If the media is really interested in best serving it’s audience and the country, it would only report on what Trump actually does, as opposed to what he says.”
that’s what sounded like you’re defending Trump. No worries. I think we agree on all things Trump here.
31. December 2020 at 10:15
Hi Scott, just wanted to wish you and everyone else a healthy, happy and prosperous new year. Thank you for your unique view points which often are welcome in a world where so many sheep are blaring the same background noise.
31. December 2020 at 10:56
Carl, Yes, and I’d add that Trump should not have sent out 14 tweets in January and February praising the CCP for doing a good job on Covid.
Ben, You said:
“But for 40 years we have been hearing about how trade would “liberalize” China. Instead, the opposite has happened.”
So China’s less “liberal” than under Mao? LOL.
Brian, You said:
“If China is like the Nazis because of Muslim persecution then wouldn’t that make Trump Nazi because he approved of it?”
Trumpistas live in a fantasy world where that never happened.
Todd, You never give up. Ever hear of “holiday lags in reporting”? We may be nearing a peak, but that 2100 figure is meaningless.
Thanks LC, Same to you.
31. December 2020 at 12:31
“Todd, You never give up. Ever hear of “holiday lags in reporting”? We may be nearing a peak, but that 2100 figure is meaningless.”
Holiday reporting wouldn’t mean a 600 death gap. Notice that I wrote it looked like the previous week was the worst, and I put a question mark next to the word “peak”.
Adding yesterday’s 3,900 deaths and taking the past seven day average gives 2,200 deaths a day compared with 2,700 the previous 2,700 deaths a day so not much change. What you haven’t been following is that the increase in cases per day had been falling for a while before Christmas.
31. December 2020 at 12:42
Oh, and what happened to the coming wave of Covid-19 deaths in Sweden?
Scott wrote on December 18th: “Everyone, Look at Swedish cases and deaths. The recent fall in deaths is completely due to a reporting lag. When the data is finally in a few weeks later, it will show that Sweden has likely already reached the April peak in deaths.”
Peak deaths in Sweden were about 100 a day. When Scott wrote that there were 75 deaths a day the previous seven days. The next four days, which are reliable now, show 50 deaths a day. Even with another adjustment upward, they won’t reach 60 deaths a day, so yet another swing and a miss for Scott.
31. December 2020 at 12:47
@XU,
If U.S. doctors over-report COVID-19 cases, they will eventually be caught because of antibody testing. Antibody testing gives you a rather accurate number of total infections.
As for Wuhan, about 4.4% of the population has COVID-19 antibodies. 4.4% x 11 million (Wuhan’s population)= 500,000. But but but… we were told that 5 million skipped town! Plus all those asymptomatic cases, so who knows how many had really been infected in Wuhan?
31. December 2020 at 14:10
Yes, let’s trade with Chinese businesses owned by the CCP, enrich the CCP, destroy our economy, then criticize the regime.
Sumner is compromised!
He is working for CCP.
January 6th is 1776.
American Patriots are on the March.
AND. IT. WILL. BE. GLORIOUS.
31. December 2020 at 14:15
“We should criticize the Chinese government and trade with the Chinese people.”
– This comment shows naivety. It’s what you would expect from an economist who has never owned a business. Business Owners are well aware that the Chinese people own nothing. The CCP owns everything. While it is true that there are mom and pop stores in China, no international company is going to work with a mom & pop. And if they do, and that company becomes bigger, the CCP will still take controlling shares. That is just how the system is setup.
Trading with China is the same thing as trading with the CCP. There is no work around. It is all or nothing.
31. December 2020 at 15:15
I wonder why these Trump derangement syndrome posts don’t just inspire Sumner to go live in Shanghai? The USA would be a lot better with one less deranged economist who thinks enriching the CCP (AKA HITLER 2.0) is a smart decision.
With this logic, the USA should have kept trading with Nazi Germany while criticizing them.
“Here is a bunch of money. Thank you for your products. Btw, please stop killing jews”. Or in the case of China: “please stop killing Uighers”.
lol.
“play nice because we are also playing nice” is a great way to lose your country.
Come back to reality Sumner!
31. December 2020 at 17:00
Just to mention that while Scott doesn’t understand up from down about the Covid-19 pandemic, partly because he apparently has never taken logic 101 or statistics 101, I think he does understand trade relations with China. Go Scott! (grin)
31. December 2020 at 17:32
The Tiananmen Square protests were student-led demonstrations calling for democracy, free speech and a free press in China. They were halted in a bloody crackdown, known as the Tiananmen Square Massacre, by the Chinese government on June 4 and 5, 1989.—
OK, I stand corrected. For the last 30 years, we have been told that “free trade” would “liberalize China” and instead the opposite has happened.
BTW, Jimmy Lai is back in prison. For being a publisher. Free speech is dead in Hong Kong, but long live “free trade.”
31. December 2020 at 19:02
Benjamin Cole, that’s why I think acceptance of students from China should be tied to free speech and free internet. Would such a quid pro quo be contested at the WTO if they ever again have a quorum? Since it’s student visas being traded, it would seem that that would not fall under WTO rules. There can be a phase in period to allow universities to reduce employment if necessary and gradually. This is the surest way to reduce tensions with China. Skeptics will say “nonstarter” but how do you know until you raise the idea publicly and widely?
31. December 2020 at 19:17
Scott,
you’re politicizing everything these days. Are you sure you’re not the one with an agenda? As far as I can tell, Bloomberg is just reporting. Of course, one can go through each of their dozens of articles every day and look for a hidden political agenda. But that would be pretty paranoid. You’re starting to sound like Trump. It’s all a grande conspiracy Scott, and they are out there to get you.
The article is much more diverse than your description. Let me put it this way: If such documents were to surface in Germany, the officials and authorities involved would be finished, and the politicians responsible along with them.
That this has no such consequences in CCP China, and maybe not in other countries as well, does not mean it should not be reported; just because it makes Scott unhappy. I’d say Bloomberg and CNN hit a sore spot if you’re so offended by these simple reports.
As others have mentioned, it seems increasingly difficult to trade with the Chinese people. Property rights in China are unclear at best, but the power relations are not. If Jack Ma makes a marginally critical speech in November, he may be completely robbed by January or February. So with whom did one do business then? With Jack Ma and Alibaba or with Xi and his 40 robbers?
This is true for every Chinese corporation, and we don’t really come into contact with other parts of the Chinese economy. Why the West should keep feeding this crocodile will probably remain your secret forever.
How reassuring that CCP China is not a rogue state by your definitions. The government is fascist, but it is not a rogue state. It’s nice when one can still look in the mirror at the end of the day after so much nitpicking.
31. December 2020 at 19:26
SS: “I don’t get it. What are readers supposed to take away from this story?” – Hello, calling Captain Obvious!
To be fair to Sumner, he does seem to have difficulty comprehending simple stuff and constantly seems to be at war against the entire world, so I’m not necessarily denying that Sumner doesn’t understand the uproar, kind of like those dyslexic kids that can’t seem to communicate or are aware of their surroundings.
Happy New Year! Our net worth went up 8% from last year, keeping us in the 1% (min net worth > $10M). Not that money is everything of course.
31. December 2020 at 19:52
My pointy-haired boss said “dylexic”.
1. January 2021 at 07:44
Brian–
I am not sure I understand your proposal.
Michael Pettis argues for taxes on capital inflows. This would force China and Germany to develop local markets, raise wages, he says. Well, maybe. Seems iffy.
I prefer heavy enough tariffs to protect US industry, probably 25% to 30%.
The WTO enforcement arm is like the WWE (World Wrestling Entertainment) referee. The rulebook is gibberish anyway and not enforced.
Remember “Trade Wars are Class Wars”.
It is not the CCP against the globalist Washington establishment; it is the CCP and globalists together against the employee class.
1. January 2021 at 09:48
Todd, You still don’t get it; the Swedish data has a long lag. When will you give up and admit that it’s not “just the flu”?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-cases/sweden-recommends-masks-for-rush-hour-as-covid-19-deaths-hit-record-idUSKBN2941KX
Christian, You said:
“As far as I can tell, Bloomberg is just reporting.”
LOL, a headline “expose” that China does exactly the same thing with reporting Covid-19 cases as do Western countries, treated like a big scandal. Yup, just “reporting” the news.