So do more!

Finally, a post that is not about Trump!

When central banks do QE, asset markets respond as if it’s mildly stimulative.  But the overall effect is usually too little to hit the central bank’s target.

So do more!

Which reminds me that Mitt Romney’s recent speech seemed to (briefly) knock 10 points off Trump’s betting odds to win the nomination, but still left him the favorite.

So do more!

Have 95% of GOP Congressman and Senators get together and trash him.  Have the WSJ, National Review, Weekly Standard and other conservative outlets say they’ll endorse Hillary if Trump gets the nomination.  Just keep doing more until Trump is stopped.  And if you fail, then at least it was heroically.  Imagine if you don’t even try, and Trump tarnishes what little luster is left on the GOP’s reputation.

And speaking of Trump, Here’s Tyler Cowen quoting Ben Sasse:

Read Ben Sasse:

Statements from Trump: ***“We’re going to open up libel laws and we’re going to have people sue you like you’ve never got sued before.” ***“When the students poured into Tiananmen Square, the Chinese government almost blew it. They were vicious, they were horrible, but they put it down with strength. That shows you the power of strength. Our country is right now perceived as weak…” ***Putin, who has killed journalists and is pillaging Ukraine, is a great leader. ***The editor of National Review “should not be allowed on TV and the FCC should fine him.” ***On whether he will use executive orders to end-run Congress, as President Obama has illegally done: “I won’t refuse it. I’m going to do a lot of things.” “I mean, he’s led the way, to be honest with you.” ***“Sixty-eight percent would not leave under any circumstance. I think that means murder. It think it means anything.” ***On the internet: “I would certainly be open to closing areas” of it. ***His lawyers to people selling anti-Trump t-shirts: “Mr. Trump considers this to be a very serious matter and has authorized our legal team to take all necessary and appropriate actions to bring an immediate halt…” ***Similar threatening legal letters to competing campaigns running ads about his record.

And on it goes…

Is fear of regulatory reprisal from a Trump administration so unrealistic? I don’t think so.

And Nick Gillespie points out that the GOP created the Trumpenstein monster.

Maybe I’m grasping at straws, but this makes me a bit hopeful:

While still holding out dim hope that Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) can somehow deny Trump an outright majority of the delegates heading into this summer’s Republican National Convention, McConnell is preparing his colleagues for the strong possibility that Trump will be their party’s nominee. If that’s the case, then McConnell is advising endangered GOP Senate candidates to run negative ads against Trump “to create space between him and Republican senators seeking reelection.”

And check out this great John Oliver video, which utterly destroys Donald Drumpf.

Please insure that all comments are thoughtful, wise and dispassionate.  And please focus your comments on the main topic of this post—Quantitative Easing.

PS.  Oops, today’s Trump-free post is actually over at Econlog.


Tags:

 
 
 

38 Responses to “So do more!”

  1. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    5. March 2016 at 12:06

    “Please insure that all comments are thoughtful, wise and dispassionate. And please focus your comments on the main topic of this post—Quantitative Easing.”

    -LOLno. QE is only 10% of this post.

    And I ask you all in Kentucky, Louisiana, Kansas, and Maine to vote for the only man who can even remotely save the nation today.

  2. Gravatar of Art Deco Art Deco
    5. March 2016 at 12:11

    Have 95% of GOP Congressman and Senators get together and trash him. Have the WSJ, National Review, Weekly Standard and other conservative outlets say they’ll endorse Hillary if Trump gets the nomination. Just keep doing more until Trump is stopped. And if you fail, then at least it was heroically.

    There are about 15 million likely voters in Republican primaries and caucuses. National Review, The Weekly Standard, The American Spectator, and Commentary have a paid circulation of about 300,000 between them. The American Spectator is not hostile to Trump. A great deal of the influence these four publications had for shaping discussion 20 years ago has leaked out to PJ Media, Salem Media &c. They’ve all had a terrible time recruiting new talent the last 15 years and. NR in particular has a troubled relationship with their more attentive readers. The managing editor is savaged in the comboxes whenever he remarks on anything in the NRO edition.

    It apparently hasn’t occurred to you that members of the Republican congressional caucus are not as unhinged about Trump as certain libertarian econbloggers and they calculate there just isn’t much in it for them to trash Trump, or that it won’t do much good to trash Trump, or they’re just not inclined to trash Trump. (The rap on Mr. Romney has for some time been that he’s something of a windsock, something made graphically clear in the last several days).

    There has not since 1976 been a convention where the nomination ballot was at all uncertain at the time the convocation was read. There has not since 1952 been a convention which required multiple ballots. The Republican establishment has yet to manage to persuade John Kasich to shuffle off the stage. The runner-up is a man who called Addison Mitchell McConnell a liar on the floor of the Senate and a man of whom one of McConnell’s camarilla said could be murdered on that floor and no senator would see a thing. Good luck with your hung convention gambit.

    Imagine if you don’t even try, and Trump tarnishes what little luster is left on the GOP’s reputation.

    That would be Republican voters you fancy are ‘tarnishing’ the GOP’s ‘reputation’. In 2008, the Democratic Party was choosing amongst a couple of skeezy lawyers and a shallow dilettante. Somehow, their ‘reputation’ remained untarnished among People Who Matter. The media, the faculty, and the legal profession are in the tank for the Democratic Party and never collectively advocate anything decent. If they’re upset, that’s good, because they’re not.

  3. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    5. March 2016 at 12:12

    BTW, this Krugman post (trigger warning: partisan hackery):

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/04/opinion/clash-of-republican-con-artists.html?rref=collection%2Fcolumn%2Fpaul-krugman

    and this Washington Post article:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/compost/wp/2016/03/03/how-mitt-romney-actually-could-have-stopped-donald-trump/

    at least have something substantive to say about the Trump phenomenon.

    And good Econlog post on Krugman. Didn’t I tell you back a month or two ago that Krugman favors fiscal stimulus now? And doesn’t that Econlog post confirm it?

  4. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    5. March 2016 at 12:15

    “as certain libertarian econbloggers”

    -“libertarian”.

    Bob Murphy (an actual libertarian) isn’t suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome.

  5. Gravatar of Art Deco Art Deco
    5. March 2016 at 12:15

    And check out this great John Oliver video, which utterly destroys Donald Drumpf.

    The partisan Democrats amongst our friends flood our timeline with dreck every day, including and especially John Oliver clips. (The known Republicans amongst our friends are curiously reticent, hmmm). The Democratic voter thinks in terms of slogans and quips.

  6. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    5. March 2016 at 12:20

    “And check out this great John Oliver video, which utterly destroys Donald Drumpf.”

    -Watched it. Will not convince a single Trump supporter. Says more about the other GOP candidates’ credibility than Trump’s.

  7. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    5. March 2016 at 12:22

    BTW, Sumner, when will you stop with these “Trump is a poopy-head: Open Thread” posts? When Trump wins Florida? The nomination? The presidency? Is inaugurated?

  8. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    5. March 2016 at 13:08

    BTW, Senator Ted Cruz has at last surpassed Marco Rubio in the markets! Yes!

  9. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    5. March 2016 at 13:51

    Harding, You said:

    “And doesn’t that Econlog post confirm it?”

    Nope, just the opposite, you forgot to read the fine print.

    You said:

    “Bob Murphy (an actual libertarian) isn’t suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome.”

    Then he obviously is not a true libertarian.

    You asked:

    “Is inaugurated?”

    No, that’s when I START.

    Art, I asked for wise, dispassionate comments. You should be defending Trump’s claim at the recent debate that he has a big penis. Instead you give me this garbage. Have you no class? And if he won’t release his tax returns, how can we trust him on any “issue”?

  10. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    5. March 2016 at 14:08

    “You should be defending Trump’s claim at the recent debate that he has a big penis.”

    -Given his strong capabilities of attracting and keeping good-looking women, he almost certainly does.

    https://heartiste.wordpress.com/2015/06/17/donald-trump-for-president/

    “And if he won’t release his tax returns, how can we trust him on any “issue”?”

    -How could we have trusted Mitt Rmoney on any issue before he released his tax returns?

  11. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    5. March 2016 at 14:12

    Wrong link. Right ones:

    https://heartiste.wordpress.com/2015/08/06/more-evidence-that-donald-trump-is-an-alpha-male/

    https://heartiste.wordpress.com/2015/07/21/alpha-male-of-the-month-presidential-hopeful-donald-trump-has-game/

  12. Gravatar of Steve Steve
    5. March 2016 at 14:16

    Do you have any real-time evidence betting odds changed on the Romney speech? Romney didn’t say anything the Trump voters would care about.

    Cruz and Kasich had good debates though.

    Ben Carson suspended his campaign Friday after hinting at it Wednesday. Carson didn’t endorse anyone, but suggested a political outsider, but not voting based on anger or fear. Helps Cruz and Rubio.

    John “Town Hall” Kasich would be an excellent VP were he willing to do the job. He could spend lots of time as a middle man between the president and congress, voters or dignitaries.

  13. Gravatar of Steve Steve
    5. March 2016 at 14:23

    Also no one should discuss Trump’s manhood, because there is a betting market on it:

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-politics/us-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2288451

    Does anyone have Marla Maples’s contact info?

  14. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    5. March 2016 at 14:25

    Steve, there is strong evidence for Sumner’s assertion here. Check

    https://electionbettingodds.com/GOP_chart_maxim_lott_john_stossel.html

    I don’t think Cruz’s debate was all that good.

    Kasich might make a good VP, but only for winning Ohio and politicking. Trump’s wife might also make a solid VP.

  15. Gravatar of Matt Waters Matt Waters
    5. March 2016 at 14:29

    On QE, one sad thing on Kasich is he has some really horrific views on monetary policy. He said growth is low because the Fed has kept interest rates at zero.

    Oh well, the road is long for market monetarism, for the general population even more than mainstream economists.

  16. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    5. March 2016 at 14:33

    BTW, I’m pretty sure that remark about his penis size helped Trump’s polling numbers with both men and women. Otherwise, he wouldn’t have said it.

  17. Gravatar of Art Deco Art Deco
    5. March 2016 at 14:45

    Art, I asked for wise, dispassionate comments.

    And I gave you dispassionate commentary on the reasons people might not do what you want them to do, on the reasons that what you want them to do might have little effect, and on the reasons the scenarios implicit in your mind are ones the casual observer has no reason to believe will come to pass. I think working politicians know their publics and the likely effects of their words better than academics know these things.

    I make no claims to wisdom (and you shouldn’t either).

    You should be defending Trump’s claim at the recent debate that he has a big penis.

    Why? I don’t know anything about his genitals.

    Instead you give me this garbage.

    “Garbage” in this case would be assessments you’d rather not hear.

    Have you no class?

    I have more than the average professor. If you’re comparing me to the man in the street, I’ll beg off offering a judgment.

    And if he won’t release his tax returns, how can we trust him on any “issue”?

    I think he’a being audited and acting under legal counsel. What else do we have to see before we can ‘trust’ him? Academic transcripts? Medical records? Long-form birth certificate?

  18. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    5. March 2016 at 14:59

    Steve, You said:

    “John “Town Hall” Kasich would be an excellent VP were he willing to do the job.”

    The term ‘excellent’ does not apply to any candidate, in either party. Nor does very good, or good.

    Harding, You said:

    “Trump’s wife might also make a solid VP.”

    Now that would be an excellent choice. It’s already obvious that Trump will use his wife to get around the 8 year limit on Presidents.

    Matt, You said:

    “On QE, one sad thing on Kasich is he has some really horrific views on monetary policy. He said growth is low because the Fed has kept interest rates at zero.
    Oh well, the road is long for market monetarism, for the general population even more than mainstream economists.”

    Not bad at all. The people we have to convince are economists, not politicians.

  19. Gravatar of Art Deco Art Deco
    5. March 2016 at 15:13

    It’s already obvious that Trump will use his wife to get around the 8 year limit on Presidents.

    She’s a naturalized citizen who immigrated from Slovenia in 1996. Not happening.

  20. Gravatar of Steve Steve
    5. March 2016 at 15:17

    Thanks E.Harding

    I see Trump lost 5 points when Mittens slapped him.

    On the other hand, getting slaughtered in Kansas has taken 15 points off of Trump.

    Drumpf has yet to win west of the Mississippi unless the voters are casino magnets and hookers.

    Maine will be telling.

  21. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    5. March 2016 at 15:20

    Stupid 12th amendment.

  22. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    5. March 2016 at 15:23

    Also, Steve, Trump did win Arkansas. He has yet to win a state West of the Mississippi that is not Nevada or once part of the old Confederacy.

    Yes, Maine and Kentucky will be telling.

  23. Gravatar of Steve Steve
    5. March 2016 at 15:34

    Ah, I forgot Arkansas.

    The angry confederates and the angry yankees like the same guy.

  24. Gravatar of TylerG TylerG
    5. March 2016 at 16:11

    Scott, I’m curious if you would consider the Trump phenomenon as confirming some of Charles Murray’s thesis of class stratification as expressed in Coming Apart (?).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coming_Apart_(book)

  25. Gravatar of Matt Waters Matt Waters
    5. March 2016 at 16:14

    “Not bad at all. The people we have to convince are economists, not politicians.”

    I don’t think Kasich is thinking in exogenous vs endogenous terms. An interest rate increase is great if it’s endogenous to higher NGDP. A higher interest rate which is evidence of a tighter policy stance is very bad. Many Wall Street types and some conservative economists have the latter point-of-view.

    Louisiana will be very interesting, because it’s a closed primary and not a caucus.

  26. Gravatar of Benjamin Cole Benjamin Cole
    5. March 2016 at 16:21

    The Romney speech, termed “major” by Fox News with a drum roll before it aired, seems to have energized the Trumpians. I respect Trump voters for (finally) realizing the GOP and Fox have their own interests.

    Why the GOP establishment is so fearful of Trump is a fascinating question.

    I thought the most telling moment was when at the end of the last GOP debate, all the candidates meekly said they would support whoever the Republican nominee is after the convention.

    It looks like Trump took on the GOP establishment, Fox News, the National Review, the New York Times, and who knows how many other pundits and power centers and has emerged victorious.

  27. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    5. March 2016 at 16:39

    @TylerG

    -There’s definitely some element to that. For example, the most pro-Trump states are New York (home state advantage), Mississippi and West Virginia. Eastern Kentucky is bailing Trump out right now as we speak in that great Commonwealth.

    Matt Waters, I expect Trump to win in Louisiana. He has won all the Confederate states decisively so far, with the exception of Texas, home of Senator Ted Cruz (Oklahoma was a territory, not a state).

  28. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    5. March 2016 at 18:06

    Okay, where the hell did that Maine victory come from?

  29. Gravatar of Negation of Ideology Negation of Ideology
    5. March 2016 at 18:44

    “Not bad at all. The people we have to convince are economists, not politicians.”

    I agree with that. I expect monetary policy will continue to be based on the consensus of economists. Kasich is certainly not going to be trying to interfere with Fed decisions. There just seems to be a political rule on the right now that you have to say low interest rates hurt senior citizens who keep their money in CDs.

    Off topic – I have a theory that Donald Trump doesn’t really want to be President, he just enjoys campaigning because he is a narcissist. The brokered convention will be his perfect out – he will negotiate a deal that he will step aside and not run third party on the condition that Chris Christie be nominated. Even with the anger at Christie for his Trump endorsement, I suspect everyone will breath a sigh of relief that Trump is gone and support Christie.

    Then Trump doesn’t have to risk a landslide defeat to Hilary, and keep calling himself a “winner” forever. And if Christie loses, well, he’ll blame Christie and call him a loser.

  30. Gravatar of Julius Probst Julius Probst
    6. March 2016 at 05:58

    QE / Monetary policy related (about Sweden)

    Hi Scott,
    would love to hear your opinion about Swedish monetary policy.
    As we all remember, the Rikssbank made a big mistake a few years back, hiking rates much to early, stifling the recovery before the economy got back on track. Lars Svensson got it completely right and called it and they had to reverse course, implementing negative rates as well as QE. Inflation has been around 0 percent for almost 3 years, thus far below the Riksbank’s target for a considerable time period. I wrote back in January on my blog that the ECB’s easing is putting further pressure on the Riksbank as the appreciation of the Swedish crown is deflationary (http://macrothoughts.weebly.com/blog/increasing-pressure-on-the-riksbank). Now, given their inflation target, the Riksbank should do more and seems to be willing to do more. However, the Swedish economy is growing very quickly at the moment, growing by 4.5% (year-on-year) in the last quarter of 2015. So nominal GDP growth is quite high even though inflation (which is quite meaningless :D) is still very low. Under a NGDP target, monetary policy in Sweden seems about right, neutral stance. Under the misguided inflation target, the Riksbank should be more accommodative to drive inflation higher and back to target. However, this could potentially create quite a boom as global deflationary forces seem to quite strong at the moment. So they would have to do quite a bit of QE or cut rates even lower. What do you think?

  31. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    6. March 2016 at 06:34

    Art, You said:

    “She’s a naturalized citizen who immigrated from Slovenia in 1996. Not happening.”

    You don’t think Trump can provide forged documents? Or divorce her and marry another well before then? After all, didn’t Trump say that Obama got elected using forged documents? And hasn’t Trump said that Obama’s abuses of presidential power entitle The Donald to do the same?

    TylerG,

    Trump’s best state was Massachusetts, where he even did extremely well in highly affluent areas. So I think that theory is too simple. But there’ probably a grain of truth there.

    Ben, You said:

    “The Romney speech, termed “major” by Fox News with a drum roll before it aired, seems to have energized the Trumpians.”

    Then why did Cruz win more delegates yesterday? Why did Trump underperform expectations?

    Negation, Interesting theory. BTW, Christie is horrible. I’d prefer Hillary.

    Julius, I don’t think they need to hit inflation target every single year, the key is the expected rate of inflation over the next few years. Obviously I prefer an NGDP target, but if they insist on inflation they should at least try to hit it in the long run. That will probably require a gradually depreciation of the krona against the euro, over the next few decades. Keep in mind the Riksbank has a dual mandate, which is another reason why growth also matters.

  32. Gravatar of Art Deco Art Deco
    6. March 2016 at 07:45

    You don’t think Trump can provide forged documents?

    No. Her biography is a matter of public record, including her naturalization.

    Or divorce her and marry another well before then?

    He could conceivably do that. Not many septuageniarians make use of the divorce courts, however; he’s been with Melania longer than he was with Ivana.

    After all, didn’t Trump say that Obama got elected using forged documents? And hasn’t Trump said that Obama’s abuses of presidential power entitle The Donald to do the same?

    I think he called into question Obama’s refusal to make his long-form birth certificate public. I don’t recall he made any categorical statements about Obama’s status, much less strategems to hide that status.

  33. Gravatar of Art Deco Art Deco
    6. March 2016 at 07:47

    http://www.thepoliticalinsider.com/donald-trump-asked-about-obamas-birth-certificate-his-response-is-brutal/

    This delineates some of what he said concerning BO’s birth certificate.

    And if he want’s a decoy President, the man’s got five kids. No need to give Melania the gate.

  34. Gravatar of Art Deco Art Deco
    6. March 2016 at 07:54

    BTW, Christie is horrible. I’d prefer Hillary.

    Is he running a vast buckraking and money laundering scheme? Covering for a visitor to Jeffrey Epstein’s pedo island? Disregarding statutorily defined security protocols to frustrate FOIA requests? Brazenly lying to the family members of government employees killed abroad?

  35. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    6. March 2016 at 09:31

    I agree with Scott that I prefer Hillary over Christie.

    “Then why did Cruz win more delegates yesterday? Why did Trump underperform expectations?”

    -A strong Super Tuesday performance, a good ground game, the drop-out of Ben Carson, the collapse of Rubot, and an acceptable debate performance. All in favor of Cruz.

  36. Gravatar of collin collin
    7. March 2016 at 08:14

    It is becoming evident that one problem of the Republican Party in stopping Trump is they road the wrong horses against him. They handed an campaign out-of-shape Bush a bunch money to find out nobody wanted to vote him and then supported Rubio who was described by Ygelsias as “the candidate people assumed other people liked.” (I originally thought Rubio had the best potential but noticed in November voters did not like him.) So Cruz is the right candidate to defeat Trump. However Trump is still the favorite, because nobody likes Cruz and Cruz is running out of good states for him. (The South & Midwest have mostly voted, although I suspect he does well Mountain states.)

  37. Gravatar of Ben J Ben J
    8. March 2016 at 01:56

    Art Deco,

    I thought I’d comment here since you might not see it in the old thread, but I’d like to subscribe to your evolution denial newsletter. I’m only interested in that topic, so if you could minimise the weirdly detailed invectives about anyone left of Goldwater, that would be great. Thanks in advance!

  38. Gravatar of Art Deco Art Deco
    8. March 2016 at 05:12

    I’d like to subscribe to your evolution denial newsletter.

    I do not publish any newsletters.

    minimise the weirdly detailed invectives about anyone left of Goldwater

    A few more trips outside of Boston, New York, and the Bay Area wouldn’t hurt you at all.

Leave a Reply