Reading Trump’s mind
Here’s me, before the recent Georgia election:
Does Trump even want the GOP to hold the Senate? Or is Trump like some un-named central European dictator who doesn’t care if his own country is destroyed once it becomes clear that his
hairhare-brained scheme for world domination didn’t work?
And today we see that:
“The president was telling people today that he was happy Loeffler and Perdue lost, according to a person familiar with the conversations,” she tweeted.
“He said they didn’t defend him enough,” she added.
Not enough? Trump is the best friend the Democrats ever had. But then perhaps he’s just a mole; he did support Bill Clinton, didn’t he? 🙂
PS. Like Trump, I’m glad they lost.
Tags:
8. January 2021 at 11:59
One lasting bit of damage Trump has left us with is a huge increase in distrust in the voting process.
There are now millions (not every Republican, or even half, but a very large portion) of people who think any time their candidates lose it’s due to the Democrats cheating. Quite a few of them think that’s what just happened in Georgia, not just the presidential election.
This wasn’t a thing before. When Obama won (twice) the claims of massive voter fraud being the reason were almost non-existent. Trump is why that’s now a thing, and it’s disgusting.
The hope is that this week is the peak, when the fever breaks and enough Republicans say “whoa ok this has gone way too far” and the centrist Biden can work with them to turn down the heat and get back to some kind of normal. Remains to be seen.
8. January 2021 at 12:29
Harebrained, as in brain of a hare.
8. January 2021 at 13:06
Hard to tell whether Trump actually wanted Perdue and Loeffler to lose or whether this is just more sour grapes/claiming that every action is part of the N-dimensional master plan.
Either way, he is certainly out in a way to do just a phenomenal amount of damage to the GOP and the country. I can’t imagine there’s anyone in the establishment GOP who is happy that Trump won the nomination.
8. January 2021 at 13:31
There’s the 4D chess interpretation where by making Loeffler and Perdue lose he made Mitch McConnel lose his majority leader status and so better positioned Trump as the nucleus of the Republican party going forward.
8. January 2021 at 13:37
msgkings, only 20% of Republicans think Biden legitimately won: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/11/19/only-a-quarter-of-republicans-believe-donald-trump-should-concede
8. January 2021 at 13:58
@Frank:
Wow. That was 2 weeks after the election though, I’m sure many have learned the cost of such idiocy by now, and seen the courts laugh it off. I suspect it’s more than 50% now. But I also suspect as many as 15-20 million still think it was fraudulent.
Thanks Trump!
8. January 2021 at 14:08
Mike, That too. 🙂
J Mann, He can still do a lot of damage as leader of the opposition. Suppose he tells his supporters to vote for Hawley, not Ben Sasse, in 2024. That could be damaging to the country.
Andrew, Yes, I wondered about that too.
8. January 2021 at 14:29
msgkings, yes, the data was from weeks ago, but to be honest, has anything really change since then? I find it hard to believe that people would change their beliefs simply because courts said there was absolutely no evidence of illegitimacy. Are that many people willing to say “Yes, I was wrong before and held completely unsubstantiated beliefs”?
8. January 2021 at 14:39
@Frank:
You have to remember, not every one of the 75 million votes for Trump were from the MAGA loonies. There’s probably 50 million people who would vote for a ham sandwich if they were on the Rep ticket (I’d prefer that to Trump myself). These voters aren’t in the Trump cult, they probably didn’t like him at all, but they simply do not ever vote for Dems. And when he lost, I suspect most non-cultists eventually realized he lost for real.
Throw in what happened this week, which has made even some of the Trumpier folks back away, and I doubt it’s still 80% thinking fraud.
But 20 or 30% or whatever it is? Still a freaking clown show.
8. January 2021 at 15:38
Further support for my claim that Trump went too far this time:
https://thehill.com/policy/technology/533439-twitter-permanently-suspends-trump
Trump being finished in many ways does not mean our banana republic problem is over, but when Biden takes office, even more of his base will feel betrayed and start to realize they were lied to. Sure, they’ll be a rather significant number of dead-enders, but a large minority of his supporters are just beginning to realize they were betrayed.
Republican voters have been easily manipulated by Republican politicians and media figures for decades. This will probably be the costliest betrayal yet.
8. January 2021 at 15:51
When Obama left office, I was relieved as that meant the anti-Obama rants would eventually taper off.
Maybe real discourse could resume.
I feel the same way about Trump.
8. January 2021 at 16:30
I voted for Trump in VA knowing he would lose, as a protest vote (I would not have voted for Trump in a swing state). What’s interesting however is that if you assume pre-Covid absentee ballot rules, Trump would have handily won, despite all the craziness. Shows the power of Trump and the Republican party. Of interest is how nobody has debated much whether it was proper to allow absentee ballots in the manner they were used in WI, PA, AZ, NV, or GA (I realize places like OR have rules in place for years, allowing absentee ballots, but I’m talking about the swing states that did not).
PS–Trump is hair-brained, orange hair.
8. January 2021 at 17:08
Ray Lopez raises an interesting point.
It is true, “there is no evidence of voter fraud,” or at least enough to tip the election.
It is also true that a forensic analysis of votes would probably take years and might be inconclusive at that.
A friend of mine in California mailed in his ballot. He signed it. But how will anyone ever check his signature against an original? There are tens of millions of mailed-in or absentee ballots. Really, someone is checking signatures?
Then we have voter machines. Before Trump lost it was posited somehow Russians might hack the machines, and for reasons that escape me, the voter machines evidently somehow use “software” to tabulate votes.
If you tell me that computer “software” is both online and involved in counting votes….
Then we have issues of incomplete, damaged or indecipherable ballots, and “hanging chads” and so on.
There is old-fashioned ballot-box stuffing, and dead people voting and so on.
There are legitimate questions about election-day rules changes made in many states, though the finer points of such arguments escape me.
The US relies on 50 states, and who knows how many counties, using who knows what kind of creaking technology, to count votes, a process which seems to take months. Long weeks and months in which additional votes can be “harvested”? (By either party).
Then key states (under the idiotic Electoral College system) can play a crucial role in who “wins” a national election.
As we saw in 2000, that means a few dozen votes in Florida can tip a national election.
Whether Biden or Trump won or lost, who has confidence in this “system”?
Add on a national media and government, and two parties, that repeatedly distort and lie about everything.
I can see why some members of the public are skeptical of the vote.
8. January 2021 at 18:00
Add on, see it goes like this:
If you are a Donk, or in the Donk-affiliated media, then the Biden election was legitimate.
If you are a ‘Phant, or in the ‘Phant-affiliated media, this election was dubious.
Vice-versa on the 2016 results, which were characterized in Donk circles as having been tainted by Russian interference.
8. January 2021 at 18:13
Here is an article from a 2018 issue of Scientific American. This is an interesting article, as it came out before party battle-lines were established for 2020, on whether the election was clean or not.
Remember, after the 2016 election, the mood among Donks was that the results were dubious, and ‘Phants were happy.
—30—
“The Vulnerabilities of Our Voting Machines
When Americans go to the polls, will hackers unleash chaos?
By Jen Schwartz on November 1, 2018
The Vulnerabilities of Our Voting Machines
Credit: Getty Images
A few weeks ago computer scientist J. Alex Halderman rolled an electronic voting machine onto a Massachusetts Institute of Technology stage and demonstrated how simple it is to hack an election.
In a mock contest between George Washington and Benedict Arnold three volunteers each voted for Washington. But Halderman, whose research involves testing the security of election systems, had tampered with the ballot programming, infecting the machine’s memory card with malicious software. When he printed out the results, the receipt showed Arnold had won, 2 to 1. Without a paper trail of each vote, neither the voters nor a human auditor could check for discrepancies. In real elections, too, about 20 percent of voters nationally still cast electronic ballots only.”
—30—
Not reassuring.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-vulnerabilities-of-our-voting-machines/
8. January 2021 at 18:59
As much fun as politics is, I wonder what Scott thinks about the 5-year TIPS rate exceeding the 10-year rate while both remain below target.
8. January 2021 at 20:51
msgkings, here’s an up-to-date poll from yesterday: 73% of Republicans believe enough fraud took place to change the election: https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7e6digtwqp/capitol-protest-crosstabs-adobe.pdf
Also interesting, 45% of Republicans believe it was appropriate to storm the Capitol building:
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/01/07/US-capitol-trump-poll
Nothing has changed over the past two months in people’s beliefs.
8. January 2021 at 22:21
@Frank:
Yikes…I may have overestimated these knuckleheads a bit.
8. January 2021 at 22:22
Also, what Thomas Hutcheson said above…I’d like to hear your thoughts on that.
8. January 2021 at 22:45
It’s great news that they lost.
It quickens the divide, and hastens the communist take over.
I will never stop speaking truth.
1. Frustrated American citizens, regardless if they are left or right, are not “terrorists”. That unarmed Air Force veteran shot at point blank range by a barely literate black police officer(probably brainwashed by CNN and BLM) is not a terrorist. Sumner is more of a terrorist than she is. The only difference between a freedom fighter, and a terrorist, is what side of the aisle you are on.
2. No American should be silenced, not matter how radical they are. Free Speech is inalienable.
3. Americans are not stupid. When people are being banned; when countries like Ukraine send out arrest warrants for the Biden’s, when videos show Biden sticking his ugly dick in some teenage Chinese woman’s mouth, that is pedophilia.
And silencing American voices only strengthens them. What you saw on the 6th is a prelude to Civil War. Within the next ten years, this nation will be in a battle for its soul. Not an ideologically battle – as we see today. But a physical, brutal, bloody, battle.
Sumner and the radicals continue to push the nation towards war.
Sumner and his CCP party are Hitler 2.0.
8. January 2021 at 22:50
@xu
Shut up, stupid. LOL at you.
8. January 2021 at 22:52
It’s a shame to see Americans voted for a pedophile.
And it’s a shame to see another 4 years of decline.
Remember this folks: Sumner wants the dollar to collapse. And it will now that the Biden/Harris regime is in.
Prepare yourselves. They’ve been planning this for years.
The dollar has always been overvalued because it’s the “reserve currency”. But that won’t happen much longer. With the rise of the CCP, there are alternatives: both digital and fiat. And fewer and fewer countries see the dollar as stable.
The collapse is inevitable.
8. January 2021 at 22:59
The left is afraid.
The left knows their ideas are not winning in the marketplace, so they are seeking to shutdown that marketplace.
Nazi Germany did the same thing.
As did Mao
9. January 2021 at 00:47
Frank:
Unfortunately, the US election system vote-counting “system” is so jumbled and vulnerable that any sensible person can be skeptical of results. See my comments above.
9. January 2021 at 01:30
It’ll take a while, but this is the beginning of the end for the Trump cult. The combination of the way this presidency is ending, the fact that it is ending, the charges and civil lawsuits to follow, post-administration revelations, and Trump’s now greatly diminished ability to get his messages out will all take tolls.
Bush didn’t have this kind of cult, but he pretty easily won re-election, despite an awful first term. By the end of his second term, even many Republicans realized he was a terrible President, though he was superior to Trump in every respect.
Fortunately, this is not a Peron/Burlesconi situation, in which the dangerous popularity permanently remains.
9. January 2021 at 02:03
I’m actually concerned that the next wave of dangerous populism will come from the left. The wrong lessons learned from the ZLB experience will continue to feed the rise of MMT, and Democrats are starting to learn again how to buy votes with public spending. The popularity of “stimulus” in the context of deep cynicism is a dangerous one, needing only a charismatic cult leader to take full advantage.
The UK got lucky with Corbyn, because he’s so politically and administratively incompetent, that his movement couldn’t spread beyond the left wing. He was a back bencher for decades for a reason. We might not be so lucky.
MMT is the sort of silly set of ideas that could take us back to 70s style stagflation, or perhaps even somewhat worse. Democrats tend to elect more intelligent leaders, so such a left-wing cult figure might have me legs than Trump, politically.
I think Trumpism will diminish by 20-40% over the next couple of years, but will then be Fed again by populist leftism, if a left-wing cult leader arises. We’ll then have a very typical banana republic-style Chavismo-light movement fueling more fascism.
I hope I’m wrong
9. January 2021 at 02:51
“J Mann, He can still do a lot of damage as leader of the opposition. Suppose he tells his supporters to vote for Hawley, not Ben Sasse, in 2024. That could be damaging to the country.”
Still in gosling mode?
“Multivariate analysis indicates that economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence. The results provide substantial support for theories of Economic-Elite Domination and for theories of Biased Pluralism, but not for theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy or Majoritarian Pluralism. “
https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/mgilens/files/gilens_and_page_2014_-testing_theories_of_american_politics.doc.pdf
9. January 2021 at 07:50
You folks who are so happy the dems won can look forward to more of the following (from Dennis Prager):
“Half of America, the nonleft half, is afraid to speak their minds at virtually every university, movie studio, and large corporation—indeed, at virtually every place of work. Professors who say anything that offends the left fear being ostracized if they have tenure and being fired if they do not. People are socially ostracized, publicly shamed and/or fired for differing with Black Lives Matter, as America-hating and white-hating a group as has ever existed. And few Americans speak up.”
9. January 2021 at 09:54
Benjamin Cole, talk is cheap; link to data. In 2016, two months later after election, 1/4 of Democrats felt the vote was illegitimate (and 1/5 of Republicans as well!). Compared with 3/4 of Republicans voters in 2020 two months later feeling it was amiss. Magnitude makes a difference.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/more-republicans-distrust-this-years-election-results-than-democrats-after-2016/
9. January 2021 at 11:26
Thomas, I’d like to see how things look after the worst of Covid is over. Right now it’s really hard to get a read on the economy. I am pleased that TIPS spreads have widened sharply in recent months, and of course they are not a perfect measure of inflation expectations. It all comes down to AIT. Will they do it or not? We will see.
Ben, You said:
“Unfortunately, the US election system vote-counting “system” is so jumbled and vulnerable that any sensible person can be skeptical of results.”
I don’t know about sensible people, but conspiracy nuts that think the storming of the Capitol was peaceful can certainly be skeptical of anything.
9. January 2021 at 11:47
@Ben Cole – Georgia as many other states has a paper ballot that is machine scanned. One of the recounts they did was by hand in addition to a machine recount. there count was pretty much the same. Maryland also has paper ballots that are machine counted. Little chance for manipulation since paper ballots can always be hand counted if there are concerns.
What will be interesting is the Dominion Voting System $1.2B law suit against Sydney Powell for defamation. An employee of the firm has also filed a lawsuit against Powell and several others.
9. January 2021 at 13:02
@Alan Goldhammer – according to the SciAm article Ben Cole linked to, as of 2017 Georgia did not have a paper ballot backup to the machine voting…let me Google this. Yep, GA did not have 100% paper backup it seems (internet):
“A federal judge has denied an effort to require higher numbers of emergency paper ballots at Georgia polling places” (Oct ’20) and (Sep ’20): “The election integrity activists say the new voting machines are unaccountable and unverifiable and have many of the same security vulnerabilities as the old ones. They have asked Totenberg to order the state to ditch the new ballot-marking machines in favor of hand-marked paper ballots for the November election.”
9. January 2021 at 16:07
Scott Sumner:
Read the Scientific American article. It is reasonable to be skeptical of US national election results. I think a streamlined bullet-proof national system is in order.
Of the Capitol occupation, I said it was “mostly peaceful,” a reprise of sentiments expressed towards BLM protests. Most Capitol occupiers were afmed with…smartphones.
The only gunshots came from Capitol police, and they shot an unarmed woman. Some people think this was a flaccid response. They want more shot dead?
On the other hand, had the Capitol police not fired, no one would died from violence (the three protestors and one officer who died that day seemed to expire from medical emergencies).
Really, if you want to see a violent riot?
From Wikipedia:
1959 – Tibetan riots against Chinese government, in Lhasa, Tibet Area, China, between March 10 to 21, this is the deadliest riot to take place in a single month and also the second deadliest riot to take place in a single year (after the 1947 Indian partition riots), a confirmed death toll of around 87,000 people.
9. January 2021 at 16:18
Add on: Does anyone really think that man in the buffalo-horned hat was leading a “coup”?
Yes, the Joint Chiefs of Staff and national ministries were minutes away from QAnon control…
Sales of adult diapers to the CNN crowd have exploded….
9. January 2021 at 16:23
I think US elections are pretty free of fraud, but have been subject to decades of efforts to make it harder for people to vote and for their votes to count equally. No system is perfect, but we can do a lot better with universal access to voting by mail, early voting, longer periods for registration and early voting, and lots more polling stations for last day of voting.
9. January 2021 at 16:41
You don’t have to read Trump’s mind on this one. He wants recognize Taiwan.
“Pompeo lifts ‘self-imposed restrictions’ on U.S.-Taiwan relationship
By Idrees Ali, David Brunnstrom
4 MIN READ
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Saturday said he was lifting restrictions on contacts between U.S. officials and their Taiwanese counterparts, a move likely to anger China and increase tensions between Beijing and Washington in the waning days of President Donald Trump’s presidency.
In a statement, Pompeo said that for several decades the State Department had created complex internal restrictions on interactions with Taiwanese counterparts by American diplomats, service members and other officials.
“The United States government took these actions unilaterally, in an attempt to appease the Communist regime in Beijing,” Pompeo said in a statement.”
—30—
Interesting. My take is that the US should recognize Free Taiwan as they do Free South Korea,
Free Japan and Free Australia.
We will see what the Bidenites believe….
9. January 2021 at 18:02
Trump needs to be convicted and put in jail, at least until the next election is over. The GOP is taking so long to separate itself from him. This is embarrassing. He has no use for the GOP anymore, but everyone in the GOP is too chicken to play Brutus, really out of sheer gutlessness or knowing how the story might end.
The GOP can’t get out of this the easy way anymore, they have to risk it and get rid of him. Voting with the Democrats for impeachment would be an important first step.
@Benjamin Cole
You only make up your theories about unfair elections because Trump lost. If Trump had won, you would never make such theories. If you honestly admit that to yourself, you’ll stop this nonsense real quick.
9. January 2021 at 18:05
BTW, kudos to Scott Sumner for his “no censorship” model.
My understanding is the Twitter and Youtube are censoring presentations that suggest the US election was suspect.
If you are an academic or prominent business person, you could lose your job for making such a suggestion.
Although the likelihood for actual prosecution is small, some prominent commentators are suggesting that people be arrested for “inciting a riot” when they suggest election results are sketchy.
9. January 2021 at 18:37
“There are tens of millions of mailed-in or absentee ballots. Really, someone is checking signatures?”
Yes
California has machine check with some hand checks. Random google hit: https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article246338640.html
Georgia audited its signature checks after Trump complaints and confirmed the matches.
9. January 2021 at 19:33
People are examining the events of January 6, 2021 and deciding Trump has not attempted a coup. This seems wrong.
Whether there was a coup attempt does not depend upon the buffalo-horned man’s actions that day. The events of that day alone are not determinative. Rather whether there was an attempted coup depends upon Trump’s intentions, such as, his intentions when he nominated William Barr to be the Attorney General, when he nominated the DNI, when he terminated the Secretary of Defense Mark Esper on November 9, and when he incited a wild protest at the Capitol and reportedly refused to increase the National Guard presence.
It seems former Vice President Dick Cheney and House Representative Liz Cheney were thinking there was the risk of a coup, hence the public position letter by 10 former Secretaries of Defense on January 3. Risk of a coup is directly implied by a reading of an intention to coup. I agree with that reading. It is hard to believe that many people have not been able to read Trump, one of the most transparent public figures.
A few hours ago I saw John Bolton on the internet (U.K. television). Bolton was asked about why the GOP and supporters have allowed Trump to get away with lies since Trump already had a reputation as a liar in 2016. My answer would be that the GOP is self-serving but Bolton’s answer is more interesting. Remarkably Bolton said that there is a number of people who didn’t know about that and he describes them as imperfect. Presumably Bolton is one of those imperfect people. If Bolton is right, there is a class of people unable to recognize a con man. What would Heather Heying and Bret Weinstein have to say about that class? If they cannot recognize Trump for what he is then they cannot recognize an attempted coup.
9. January 2021 at 20:48
Ben, You said:
“My take is that the US should recognize Free Taiwan”
LOL, Taiwan does not recognize free Taiwan. The Taiwan constitution says Taiwan is a part of China. Your proposal would be the first example in world history of a country supporting another country’s independence, when the other country is not asking for independence.
Biden should announce now that he will automatically reverse every single action taken by Trump since the election. If an action turns out to be justified he can put the action into effect later.
You said:
“and one officer who died that day seemed to expire from medical emergencies”
You really are one of the dumbest people I’ve ever met in my entire life. No wonder you keep defending Trump. You are birds of a feather.
9. January 2021 at 22:15
Scott Sumner:
Your policy prescriptions appear extreme, along with your response.
Taiwan should drop the pretense and forge ahead as the free independent nation it is.
Perhaps you would agree that the Hong Kong-ification of Taiwan would be a step backwards.
10. January 2021 at 01:41
Christian,
I don’t pity the republicans one second, but I see their strategic dilemma. The second they openly split with Trump, he starts a new populist party and takes a good third to one-half or representatives and voters with him. A lot of populist movements have done this kind of thing.
Benjamin,
the police officer was beaten to death with a fire extinguisher. Yes, sometimes people don’t die instantly, especially from head wounds. The woman who was shot dead had been climbing through the smashed window of a barricaded door defended by a lone police officer against a screaming mob. The mob had seen the gun trained at them, so it’s not like they hadn’t bee warned. By the video of it, looks like one of the most justified shootings I have seen.
10. January 2021 at 03:14
Perhaps the best way to start a war with China would be to declare Taiwan independent, and for what? Taiwan already effectively operates as an independent country, so what’s gained? What’s the logic?
10. January 2021 at 08:43
Ben, Fortunately, the people of Taiwan have better judgment than you, and would prefer to avoid war with China.
10. January 2021 at 16:42
mbka,
Trump has never built anything in his life. You overestimate him. The GOP politicians are just cowards and lazy, even Romney doesn’t seem to be the courageous leader Scott sometimes sees him to be. The GOP is hoping the Democrats will do all the dirty work and prosecute Trump and put him in jail. The Democrats seem to really want to do that, though I don’t quite understand their tactics, killing off your best vote collector is not a good plan.
11. January 2021 at 09:39
Christian, Have you ever seen the list of all the senators in US history who voted to convict a president in their own party? Hint, the list contains exactly one name.