No, the GOP has not yet hit rock bottom
This caught my eye:
“Many members of the House community were in protective isolation in room located in a large committee hearing space,” physician Brian Monahan said in a statement. “During this time, individuals may have been exposed to another occupant with coronavirus infection.“
While Monahan’s statement didn’t specify which room, one video showed dozens of people sheltered in place a committee room in the as a mob of President Donald Trump’s supporters stormed into the Capitol, forcing their way into the House and Senate chambers, lawmakers’ offices, and other areas.
Lots of congressmen and women, some of them quite elderly, packed in a conference room. What could go wrong?
This:
The video showed Delaware Democrat Lisa Blunt Rochester offering masks to a group of Republicans, including Representatives Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Andy Biggs of Arizona, who refused to cover their faces.
The GOP has become a sort of death cult.
PS: And how about this:
A bizarre tweet from the Arizona Republican Party on Monday asked whether supporters would sacrifice their lives for President Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election results.
The official account quote-tweeted a “Stop the Steal” right-wing activist who said he was “willing to give up my life for this fight” and added: “He is. Are you?”
These people are sick.
Tags:
10. January 2021 at 12:38
Lefts obsession with masks is getting silly. They only work a limited amount if at all.
I went out to south beach night clubs last night. They are packed. Yet Florida isn’t a major outbreak place right now compared to a few states with completely opposite policy.
I bet “masks” have actually increased deaths. People like my elderly mother believe what the media is telling them on masks and now she thinks she’s safe to go out if she just wears her masks.
10. January 2021 at 13:08
Note to self: don’t read comments section anymore.
10. January 2021 at 13:22
‘I bet “masks” have actually increased deaths.’
Every time I think the comments section has gotten worse…
10. January 2021 at 14:00
Sean, There’s definitely some randomness with the virus but Florida got hit pretty hard last summer so there may be some limited herd immunity, especially among those more likely to get the virus, and it’s still not doing that well: https://www.tampabay.com/opinion/2020/12/12/is-florida-better-than-california-at-containing-the-coronavirus-analysis/ In the past the places that seemed to have “gotten away with it” always ended up getting hit really hard after delays. LA has a big underground party scene and seems to have lots of people visiting each other’s homes despite the rules.
Can I ask why you went to a night club in the middle of a pandemic? I get keeping restaurants open when prevalence is low and having outdoor bars/restaurants and gathering but night clubs are just the perfect super spreader events. I love South Beach clubs, I hope to go to Ultra again one day, and I’m frustrated that the government hasn’t been able to control the virus better and given people tools to make things safer, but clubs wouldn’t be safe in all but the very best scenarios and going to a club will literally result in extra deaths and economic damage, even if it’s just fractional.
10. January 2021 at 14:22
That was quick: “Florida is in an alarming new upward spiral, with nearly 20,000 cases of the virus reported on Friday and more than 15,000 on Saturday.” https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/10/us/coronavirus-vaccine-florida.html
10. January 2021 at 14:35
I’m sure you felt the same about the radicals which resisted the 1936 German election. Or to quote a certain Scott Sumner: https://www.themoneyillusion.com/when-is-treason-justified/
It’s amazing how you are all about resisting the rule of law when they support your pet causes but otherwise, bring down the hammer of authoritarianism.
Right or wrong these guys see the election as illegitimate as do you from your often earnestly repeated “banana republic” (since banana republics can’t have legitimate elections) hence they are doing their patriotic duty to reject and resist and illegitimate result .. something you should support.
As for “What could go wrong” .. I don’t know, the same things that could go wrong any day. But sure get back to us when we have a direct correlation to the death of a legislator and them being packed in that tight room. They have a higher chance dying on their commute.
10. January 2021 at 14:42
Will and Tacticus, You might say the comment section has not yet hit rock bottom.
Peter, You said:
“Right or wrong”
Try reading it again, I think you missed the point.
10. January 2021 at 14:47
Peter,
The details matter. Are you seriously comparing the current situation to 1936 in Germany? It’s trivially easy to Google every single one of these supposed conspiracies about election fraud and see that they are wrong. Hell, Vice President and Senate Majority leader said that the election was legitimate. Trump had been saying for months that any result but him winning would be due to fraud. What’s the burden of evidence for someone to attack congress? Wasn’t there something about facts and feelings
And on “What could go wrong” the risk of dying from a car accident is lower conditional on being in a car accident than the IFR of COVID. So the only way you are right is if the chance of getting into a car accident any day is far higher than getting COVID when in a room with COVID positive people (given that several people ended up testing positive).
10. January 2021 at 15:04
@Anon: The 1936 election was legitimately supported by > 90% the German electorate, something not even Biden could dream of and yet why do I think Scott, you, et al wouldn’t call the people the people that resisted or protested that election “sick”. And regardless Scott has stating numerous times his belief we live in a banana republic hence by definition no election is legitimate regardless.
But hey I’m sure you all would have supported Hoover gunning down WW1 veterans in the street in 1932 as well had you been around.
This was a protest, nothing more, nothing less. People are just upset because it wasn’t leftist in nature.
10. January 2021 at 15:10
From the Wikipedia intro “ Like previous votes in the Nazi era, it was rigged,[2] with a claimed turnout of 99% and 98.8% voting in favour.”
Ask yourself in your heart of hearts – are people really only upset because it wasn’t leftist? Do you think Mitch McConnell is a leftist?
Do you seriously believe that Biden is going to do away with American democracy? Why? Comparing the Democrats to the Nazis is insane.
10. January 2021 at 15:40
Peter, you are wrong that it was merely a protest. Multiple people were photographed with zip cuffs in the Chamber used for a joint session. Zip tying a person is a form of kidnapping. A plot to kidnap has already resulted in 14 arrests in the matter involving Governor Gretchen Whitmer so obviously this is a serious crime just in case you did not know that.
10. January 2021 at 16:24
I’m 51 and so fat I’ve never voted Republican, although one time I wrote in a candidate for President in 2016 because both were horrible and then Democrat at the state level.
Scott, how often have you voted Republican? My guess is your entire life until 2016.
10. January 2021 at 16:24
The right’s phobia of masks also has its advantages. They didn’t wear masks when they stormed the Capitol either. “Because masks are useless”. It was a group full of Todds. I mean, the least one should wear during such a storming are masks and sunglasses, but no, “masks are useless”. In the meantime, most of these idiots have been arrested, as I predicted.
10. January 2021 at 16:24
so far… even though I have gotten fat!
10. January 2021 at 16:29
Hey anti-science Mr. List! How are things? I would explain that viruses are 10 nanometers across and go straight through masks as studies have shown but there is no way that Mr. List or Scott have heard of a nanometer. Remember, Scott has said for years that he is a Luddite and that his friends were shocked that he would start a blog. Nothing wrong with being a Luddite but how much science do they know? About as much as the Amish? Correct!
10. January 2021 at 16:29
Well today’s GOP is kooky but the party hit rock bottom when it backed President Bush’s not one, but two fantastically expensive yet counterproductive wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Who knows what untold carnage took place but the wars also cost about $6 trillion. The Donks expanded the American bombfest into Syria, Libya and Pakistan.
Masks? They probably limit the spread of infectious respiratory diseases. For a while authority figures said masks were not necessary, and now they say masks are necessary.
10. January 2021 at 16:37
Todd, You call everyone anti-science but 1) can’t read abstracts, 2) can’t admit when you’re wrong or make a mistake. Stop insulting reasonable people.
10. January 2021 at 16:40
Todd Kreider, your 10 nanometer example does not apply to the covid-19 pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 is estimated to be 50 to 200 nanometers in diameter and practically speaking the relevant expelled object is bigger yet because if sourced from the respiratory tract it is likely bundled in water for at least some period of time. If the infected person is exhaling then that watery object may get trapped in a mask. If the water evaporates after a while, hopefully you have moved away by that time.
Regardless of all of the above, I wear a mask because I want to keep my mucous membrane moist if the ambient humidity is low. I think that is a useful defense.
10. January 2021 at 16:52
Now, when President Nixon left office. he was pre-pardoned by President Ford for all crimes. Maybe Trump should work a deal like that.
Trump can offer to resign immediately, and then President Pence can pre-pardon him for everything, even if more wrongdoing is uncovered later.
The Nixon Deal!
10. January 2021 at 17:00
If Republicans are being irresponsible with covid-19, then one would expect that Republicans would have a noticeable higher death rate from covid-19 then Democrats. Let’s do a study on the death rate from covid-19 by political party and let the chips fall where they may.
Covid-19 deaths correlate strongly to vitamin d deficiency.
Vitamin d deficiency can easily be eliminated with a few thousand international units of vitamin d3 per day and this would cost only pennies per day. You’re not being told this by the elites.
10. January 2021 at 17:05
It looks like a few of them knew the Capitol pretty well
https://nypost.com/2021/01/10/rep-clyburn-suggests-capitol-rioters-may-have-had-inside-intel/
10. January 2021 at 17:10
Brian, mask wearing is a joke and hasn’t “saved lives” as scientists around the world continue to insist. The same is true with lockdowns. Here is the WHO in 2009:
“Let me make a strong plea to countries to refrain from introducing measures that are economically or socially disruptive and have … no clear public health benefits,” Margaret Chan, director-general of the World Health Organization, said in a video link.”
10. January 2021 at 17:27
Todd, Brian gave a very specific explanation of why you’re wrong. You responded with a blanket denial and an irrelevant non-sequitur. How is that science? Why are all the experts wrong? What’s wrong with Brian’s specific argument?
I know you took that quote from Michael Levitt (again check out his Wikipedia – an embarrassment to Stanford) but it has no relevance here and the key phrase is “no clear public health benefits” – you have to show that that’s the case here.
Also, are you ever going to admit you were wrong about your Danish study?
10. January 2021 at 17:39
I am not a scientist but perhaps someday researchers **might** decide the mucous membrane is the “real” reason to wear a mask.
Professor Iwasaki… “I always wear a mask on international flights for this reason, where 10% relative humidity and closed environment makes for a perfect transmission incubator.”
10. January 2021 at 18:08
Anonymous, what Brian said was both wrong and irrelevant. There was nothing wrong with the Danish study. Brian’s latest post is also silly. International flights are an extremely low cause of transmission but hey, let’s quote a Japanese scientist.
10. January 2021 at 18:20
Todd, why? You have to explain it. Why are Brian’s points irrelevant?
You claim that masks (including N95 masks) don’t work at all based on the study. The study authors gave the treatment groups masks but not the control group and checked who got Covid. They didn’t measure adherence and the author said it doesn’t look at spread, only individual protection. You misrepresented that study for weeks over many threads. Why can’t you just say you were wrong and I’ll get off your case. We all make mistakes, I misread the chart you posted.
Do you have a job in science? Have you published papers? How were the reviews? Do your coworkers think you argue and debate well? I do all these things for my job and I’ve never seen anyone employ your methods – something is off here.
10. January 2021 at 18:51
Todd Kreider, what I said is not irrelevant. I think there has been plenty of commentary on the internet about N95 versus “lesser” masks and concern about how well masks fit and concern about whether touching a mask to adjust it might give you adverse outcomes and whether the tiny holes in fabrics are small enough to block very tiny viruses. I am directing your attention to a benefit from mask wearing that has nothing to do with these concerns. If I wear a poorly fitting, not as “good” as an N95 mask, I still inhale much warmer and more humid air.
I quoted Iwasaki because, first, she endorses masks. Second, if you are interested you can search for her opinions. It seems that she is interested in the body’s innate ability to protect from viruses and humid air helps those innate features.
10. January 2021 at 20:14
@Benjamin Cole
“Well today’s GOP is kooky but the party hit rock bottom when it backed President Bush’s not one, but two fantastically expensive yet counterproductive wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.”
We’re losing 4,000 per day in Covid deaths far more than the number of Americans who died in Iraq and Afghanistan.
We lost 3,000 on 9/11 but now we’re having a 9/11+1,000 every day now yet the GOP keeps playing like Covid is no big deal
The GOP now has come out explicitly for the idea that if you don’t like how an election came out you stage a violent coup.
So I would suggest that while the GOP was bad during the W years it’s a lot worse today.
10. January 2021 at 21:00
Anonymous:
“It’s trivially easy to Google every single one of these supposed conspiracies about election fraud and see that they are wrong.”
So why are they going all out to prevent audits? They should want transparency to prove it was a valid election. This is more about the way the elections were run (no republican oversight) and the changing of the rules as set by the legislatures. If the dems won I would support them. The fact that they are doing everything in their power to prevent transparency means I do not support them.
10. January 2021 at 21:11
If anyone is in the mood late on a Sunday night for something that actually makes you feel uplifted and inspired after the week our country had you might want to check out this very moving and personal message from Governor Swarzenegger
10. January 2021 at 21:12
If anyone is in the mood late on a Sunday night for something that actually makes you feel uplifted and inspired after the week our country had you might want to check out this very moving and personal message from Governor Swarzenegger
https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status/1348312975082483713
11. January 2021 at 02:17
Mike Sax–
Seems like an apples and oranges comparison, you are making.
Yes COVID-19 is a serious global pandemic (possibly from to a leak from Wuhan lab, btw), and the GOP rhetoric should reflect that. Their PR looks stupid.
On the other hand, in the US it is states and counties and other local authorities who control lockdowns, public health measures and so on. Even rules about masks.
In terms of Afghanistan and Iraq, the US official death totals are horrible (look up contractor deaths too), but only a small part of the larger picture. There was, of course, plenty of carnage everywhere, and two nations grossly destabilized. Neither nation has recovered, and US troops are still involved.
I am no fan of either major political party. Hillary Clinton is a warmonger in pant-suits, and the Donks cater to multinationals who wants good relations with Beijing’s CCP.
Clinton’s warmongering might be exceeded by the typical establishment ‘Phant.
Read “Trade Wars are Class Wars” by Michael Pettis if you get a chance.
11. January 2021 at 06:10
Benjamin Cole
“Yes COVID-19 is a serious global pandemic (possibly from to a leak from Wuhan lab, btw), and the GOP rhetoric should reflect that. Their PR looks stupid.
“On the other hand, in the US it is states and counties and other local authorities who control lockdowns, public health measures and so on. Even rules about masks.”
Well it had to be the states as Trump chose not to use his own power. It would have been much more effective if he had used is own power and done the Defense Production Act.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21366624/trump-covid-coronavirus-pandemic-failure
There’s a long timeline-like when he admitted to Woodward he as deliberately lying about it-but any attempt to absolve him of responsibility is a whitewash
But even if we accept your premise that Trump is off the hook and its all on the Governors it was Red State Governors-GOP states-who refused to do a mask mandate, who opened too early, etc.
According to the medical professionals the number one thing to stop the spread of the virus is to wear masks. This GOP PR then is more than silly its cost many lives-as GOP supporters adopted not wearing a mask as a badge of honor and GOP states didn’t mandate masks.
One thing that’s clear-the US response has been awful. We’re now losing 4000 Americans per day whereas a comparable state like Canada has done a great deal better.
“If the US had Canada’s Covid-19 death rate, 100,000 more Americans would likely be alive today
America really is worse on coronavirus than other developed countries — and Trump is a big reason.”
“Over at the New York Times, columnist David Leonhardt compared the US’s coronavirus death toll to that of the rest of the world. He noted the US accounts for about 4 percent of the world’s population but 22 percent of its confirmed Covid-19 deaths. So how many lives would be saved if those numbers were even? Leonhardt calculated: “about 145,000.”
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/9/9/21428769/covid-19-coronavirus-deaths-statistics-us-canada-europe
Then there was Trump’s embracing herd immunity under the premise that the MORE COVID INFECTION AND DEATH THE BETTER.
So the Trump-GOP canard: no one could have known, there’s nothign anyone could have done doesn’t add up.
11. January 2021 at 09:16
Todd, I’ve never voted for a Republican presidential candidate. For lower offices, I always vote for the lesser of evils.
And Covid deaths in the US are now running 3100/day.
Wrong again!
11. January 2021 at 17:31
Mike Sax: I wear a mask in public. Some people have been so impolite as to say it improves my looks.
11. January 2021 at 18:51
Scott, I said a month ago that I doubted that Covid-19 deaths would climb above 2,500 a day when Tyler Cowen thought they would be at 5,000 deaths from early January. The following weeks were 2,500 deaths a day, 2,5000 a day and last week 3,000 deaths a day.
Anonymous: “That was quick: “Florida is in an alarming new upward spiral, with nearly 20,000 cases of the virus reported on Friday and more than 15,000 on Saturday.””
This is Florida’s alarming new spiral.
Increase in Covid-19 cases per day:
Nov 23 to Nov 29…0.9%
Nov 30 to Dec 6….0.9%
Dec 7 to Dec 13….0.9%
Dec 14 to Dec 20…0.9%
Dec 21 to Dec 27…1.0%
Dec 28 to Jan 3….1.1%
Jan 4 to Jan 10….1.1%
Increase in Covid-19 deaths a day:
Nov 23 to Nov 29….0.4%
Nov 30 to Dec 6…..0.5%
Dec 7 to Dec 13…..0.5%
Dec 14 to Dec 20….0.5%
Dec 21 to Dec 27….0.5%
Dec 28 to Jan 3…..0.6%
Jan 4 to Jan 10…..0.6%
The Covid-19 spiral in cases is out of control.
11. January 2021 at 20:23
Todd, you might be right – maybe it’s climbing more slowly in Florida than that article said – would have to look into it more. Are you going to address any of the mask points Brian and I made? There’s like 5-6 comment threads now where you disappear when people push back enough on that topic. Might be time to revisit your level of confidence.
11. January 2021 at 20:29
Todd, it doesn’t even have to be that hard, here’s a suggestion:
“Guys, I re-read the abstract for the Danish study and you are right – that one doesn’t really apply. Here are X other studies that prove my point though!
Brian, good point about particle size vs. virus size. That doesn’t change the fact that cloth masks don’t work well and that’s what most people use.”
That way you don’t have to really change your opinion and we can continue this debate for the next few years (e.g. for the masks we can then pivot back to the CDC summary we touched upon but then abandoned) but at least people may feel that you are engaging with them at least a little bit and that you can admit small mistakes.
12. January 2021 at 05:56
How many randomly controlled trials do you need to show masks are not effective at slowing Covid-19 or other respiratoryviruses? There have now been 11 conducted including the 6,000 person Danish study.
“They received 50 three-layer, disposable, surgical face masks with ear loops (TYPE II EN 14683 [Abena]; filtration rate, 98%; made in China).”
After four weeks, of following the 3,000 person mask group and the 3,000 non-mask group each week for compliance, the researchers concluded: “In an intention-to-treat analysis, the between-group difference was −0.3 percentage point (CI, −1.2 to 0.4 percentage point; P = 0.38) (odds ratio [OR], 0.82 [CI, 0.54 to 1.23]; P = 0.33) in favor of the mask group.
And the results were not statistically significant.
Scott’s medieval “proof” that masks are very effective is that doctors sometimes wear them.
12. January 2021 at 07:44
Todd, we covered this argument and so much more in this old thread which you abandoned: https://www.themoneyillusion.com/random-thoughts-2/
Are you like this in real life? Have you ever participated in academic discussions? You’ve never been given a study like this and had to explain the potential issues with it? The authors themselves explain that their study only looks at personal protection and not spread. And that’s ignoring the basic fact that these kinds of studies don’t look at adherence.
I don’t care at all about this argument, I’m just trying to get you to see reason and engage in some self reflection and insight. Your behavior has nothing to do with science – you simply avoid anything that doesn’t confirm your belief even if it’s literally in the paper and several people have tried to explain it to you.
I even gave you a nice out and example of how normal but stubborn people could ha for this without having to concede the macro point but no, you can’t even do that, it’s simply unacceptable for you to admit that you made any mistake whatsoever. Did you ever get a question wrong on an academic test? Or was it always the test that was wrong?
12. January 2021 at 08:00
Also when you say “follow” above that doesn’t mean they are following them for compliance – just that they are part of the study. The only way they track compliance is by asking people about it, very common in these kind of studies. That’s fine for what it is but it’s important to recognize limitations. Not all RCTs are the same.
And again from the actual paper explaining why independently of the result this is not meant to say anything about the relevance to everyone wearing masks:
“These findings do offer evidence about the degree of protection mask wearers can anticipate in a setting where others are not wearing masks and where other public health measures, including social distancing, are in effect. The findings, however, should not be used to conclude that a recommendation for everyone to wear masks in the community would not be effective in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infections, because the trial did not test the role of masks in source control of SARS-CoV-2 infection.”
Just be a man and admit you made a mistake. It’s OK.
12. January 2021 at 09:18
Todd, If there’s anything more pathetic with your overconfident denial of the reality of how bad Covid is, it’s when you deny making these absurd predictions EVEN WHEN EVENTS PROVE YOU WRONG. Just pathetic.
And your claim that that Danish study proves that masks don’t work is just laughably stupid. It makes no such claim.
12. January 2021 at 09:28
Finally, your behavior here is shameful. You keep saying that science is on your side and yet you disrespect its spirit constantly. An unwillingness to admit error is disqualifying for rational discussion and especially scientific investigation.
Science means being open to being proven wrong (and in fact welcoming it) and critically examining your assumptions. It does not mean ignoring arguments you dislike like you have many times in these threads – the Danish study is just one very specific thing where it was easy to pin you down. No matter what the truth is about masks, the process matters.
Just again, here is the Limitation section from the paper, which directly contradicts you, because actual scientists care about being transparent and precise (partially because they know they would immediately be called out for it otherwise):
Inconclusive results, missing data, variable adherence, patient-reported findings on home tests, no blinding, and no assessment of whether masks could decrease disease transmission from mask wearers to others.
You are fooling nobody here but yourself.
12. January 2021 at 12:43
Thanks to Anonymous, there’s a pile of ashes where Todd Kreider used to be. He deserved it. His credibility here is permanently destroyed.
Nice job, Todd.
12. January 2021 at 17:35
Scott: “Todd, If there’s anything more pathetic with your overconfident denial of the reality of how bad Covid is, it’s when you deny making these absurd predictions EVEN WHEN EVENTS PROVE YOU WRONG. Just pathetic.”
What absurd predictions? Again, no specifics at all, just ALL CAPS emotion. I’m pretty used to it. There is no scientific paper that will convince you of anything. None of the now 11 randomly controlled mask trials. Countries where 85% to 90% of the population wearing masks with a huge increase in cases and deaths in late fall and winter.
Anonymous: “Finally, your behavior here is shameful.”
Again, this is how Christian fundamentalists who don’t understand any science react to arguments that they don’t understand: “Shame!”
Sheesh. Get a grip, guys.
Nothing.
12. January 2021 at 18:14
Todd, didn’t you forget something again? You gotta admit you were wrong when it’s been shown. You’re trying to shift the discussion again but we covered much of this in the thread I linked (eg the CDCs overview of studies that show that masks work) but that’s not the point. You’re not engaging with Brian’s points nor mine.
There are many reasons someone might call someone’s behavior shameful. Shrouding themselves in the coat of science while continuously violating its basic practices and not arguing in good faith is one of them. Again, calling others fundamentalists when you can’t admit a basic mistake won’t fool anyone.
Do you get away with this stuff in other areas? If so you may need more exposure to how actually competent people comport themselves. I’ve never seen someone conducting themselves so poorly in a discussion – in school, academia, industry, or my personal life. How is this possible? Do you think you’re impressing anyone with this?
12. January 2021 at 18:18
Also I’m loathe to engage with any of your side points since you’ll latch onto that as a lifeline but again survey data of self reported mask usage that is quickly contradicted by reports on the ground is not going to convince anyone. There are some pockets that have mask usage that high in the West (eg the Bay Area) and there most spread happens from non-masked indoor interactions based on contact tracing data.
12. January 2021 at 18:24
Anonymous: “There are many reasons someone might call someone’s behavior shameful.”
You realize that you are still being a Christian fundamentalist scold, like Scott, right? But unlike Scott, you hide behind “Anonymous”.
I have degrees in physics and mathematics, which neither Scott or you have. We can’t have a reasonable discussion of what science is, but I hope your business degree has served you well.
12. January 2021 at 18:42
Lol I have a science degree too but it doesn’t matter. Your Christian fundamentalist point doesn’t make sense, don’t you understand that? You are disagreeing with the scientific consensus and you are ignoring all arguments that people being up here and you can’t admit that you were wrong about even the smallest thing.
I believe that you have a science degree and I even believe that you are genuine and. It a troll but I don’t understand how you are not familiar with how discussions work. That’s why I’m so perplexed and keep pressing the point.
12. January 2021 at 18:58
Here’s how I think someone one would likely approach this topic:
1) Do we understand the mechanisms by which masks work?
2) Do we have examples of small situations where we expect one outcome if masks work and another if they don’t? Which do we see? Are there alternate explanations? Which are more likely?
3) Do we have examples of large scale natural experiments of the same thing? Same additional questions as above. These are much more challenging in practice because there are so many confounding factors.
Here we have a mechanism (see Brian’s posts), we have lots of experiments that show that the mechanism works (we haven’t discussed these much), we have situations that can only be explained by masks working (see the CDC summary), and we don’t have as much data on the last one. You cite some RCTs but the first one you cited didn’t say what you claimed it did and we wasted like 50 posts until you kind of sort of admitted it may not be relevant so it doesn’t seem worth reading another 11 without a sign of you arguing in good faith.
I grant you the YouGov survey by which people say they wear masks but you should at least admit that instead of that invalidating the facts that masks work based on all the other evidence it’s at least possible that adherence isn’t actually that high given that this is what we see from both contact tracing and reports from how people got it. The virus spreads mainly when people interact for significant amounts of time in enclosed spaces and masks help but while people may wear them on public transport or at the store and at work few wear them at home and social gatherings drive spread. And yes, masks aren’t a panacea – given enough time with an infections person in an enclosed room they likely won’t protect you – I certainly don’t go indoors without an N95 mask – but that doesn’t mean they don’t do anything.
Furthermore you don’t even argue that cloth masks or surgical masks don’t work which I think is a totally reasonable argument for self protection and potentially even partially for source control but even N95 masks. That immediately doesn’t pass the smell test – that’s how healthcare workers protect themselves.
In all this the big pattern is: 1) Anchoring on small details like particular RCTs that have limited relevance and them using them invalidate a mountain of contradictory evidence, 2) Not being able to engage with any counterpoint except extremely dismissively, 3) Cutting and running and coming back with the same points a few days later.
Several people have already pointed out that this has been happening for over a year. So I ask you: Does any of this ring a little true? Are all those people wrong and blind and you are the one true scientist? Could it possibly be that you’re a little too emotionally invested in this and not seeing it clearly?
12. January 2021 at 19:44
What is your science degree, coward, hiding behind Anonymous?
12. January 2021 at 19:58
Why does it matter? Why do you care so much about credentials? It’s pretty easy to tell whether someone has good reasoning skills and is arguing in good faith or not and literally none of this discussion requires any but the most basic understanding. None of what we’ve discussed here has anything to do with physics or math. I’m sure you know more physics than me and you may even know more areas of math if you have a degree in it though I probably did a lot more mathematical proofs back in the day.
All I want you to say is that you made a mistake with your interpretation with the Danish study.
I almost forgot this little bit from the random thread, quoting you: “What in the world are you talking about? I am not arguing against expert consensus. The entire Western world’s health organizations including the WHO and the CDC were against mask wearing since ineffective as Dr. Fauci explained to Americans in February: masks are too porous to have any real protection. Scientists in the UK, Sweden, Germany, Australia and other countries have continued to recommend against wearing masks, which politicians ignore.”
Really hard to read that charitably as an honest mistake.
12. January 2021 at 20:01
The virus spreads mainly when people interact for significant amounts of time in enclosed spaces and masks help”
The coward who is anonymous should own up to the fact that nowhere does science say “and masks help”. How much do they help, coward? This is a religious statement, one that feeds into Scott’s religious views.
12. January 2021 at 20:09
We covered this in the Random thread – from the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/masking-science-sars-cov2.html
“ CDC recommends community use of masks, specifically non-valved multi-layer cloth masks, to prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Masks are primarily intended to reduce the emission of virus-laden droplets (“source control”), which is especially relevant for asymptomatic or presymptomatic infected wearers who feel well and may be unaware of their infectiousness to others, and who are estimated to account for more than 50% of transmissions.1,2 Masks also help reduce inhalation of these droplets by the wearer (“filtration for personal protection”). The community benefit of masking for SARS-CoV-2 control is due to the combination of these effects; individual prevention benefit increases with increasing numbers of people using masks consistently and correctly.”
There’s plenty of details at the link.
What does “How much?” mean. By what metric? This is not a textbook physics problem where you fill in some variables and get one answer. You may want to check out the Swiss cheese model, each intervention can help reduce spread but none is enough by themselves (and of course some may not help).
Why can’t you admit you were wrong? Why do you think every one but you is a religious zealot yet can’t admit a simple mistake. I don’t care if you think masks work just admit you were wrong about the paper and (might as well up the ante) that Fauci, the CDC, and WHO say that masks “work” and you can maintain that they are wrong.
13. January 2021 at 04:57
And please explain why scientists all over Europe still say a year into the pandemic that people should not wear masks and/or that there is not sufficient evidence to show they protect the wearer or those around the wearer? The politicians ignored their advice.
Only 15% Of Swedes are wearing masks yet their per capita Covid-19 deaths are #20 in the world. Meanwhile in the U.S. where over 80% have regularly worn masks since August, deaths a day have shot up from 700 day in September and October to 1,300 a day in November, 2,400 a day in December to 3,100 a day in early January. Why might that be?
Looks like masks really lost the mojo they had in summer and early fall by a factor of more than four.
13. January 2021 at 12:07
No point jumping to other parts of the discussion if we can’t resolve even the tiniest issues (whether we agree on the Danish study and what Fauci/WHO/CDC believe).
You can’t see something that may be driving increased transmission from summer to winter? Maybe something to do people spending time outdoors vs. indoors and also potential effects of temperature/humidity on the virus? Masks are a tool, not a panacea.
Also, who are those European scientists? Would be interesting to see some discussions between them and mask supporters and see how that goes.
For other readers, the NYT has a great overview article on masks today that addresses a lot of the issues in our discussion: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/12/health/coronavirus-masks-transmission.html
13. January 2021 at 14:59
Todd, How about your prediction that US deaths had peaked in December and were already trending downwards?
I didn’t think I’d need to mention specific examples as I assumed you already knew. I guess not. There are many more, but that’s just one example.