Matt Yglesias must be pulling his hair out
From today’s NYT, read it and weep:
Other Republicans cautioned that an expansion of the Fed’s existing efforts could deepen the nation’s financial challenges by postponing a necessary reckoning and eventually accelerating the pace of inflation.
Democrats made no similar effort to convince Mr. Bernanke that he should take additional action. They congratulated the Fed chairman in the manner of people confident that they are speaking with an ally.
“I want to thank you for your steadfast commitment to taking action as you deem appropriate,” said Representative Michael E. Capuano, Democrat of Massachusetts. “Thank you for not giving up.”
Representative John Carney, Democrat of Delaware, went one step further.
“The Fed is doing everything it can to address the unemployment part of your mandate, is that correct?” he asked Mr. Bernanke.
Mr. Bernanke, momentarily startled, responded that the Fed could do more, and was considering whether it should.
Sometimes I don’t know whether to laugh or cry. But there can no longer be any doubt that I was right all along. The GOP is evil, the Dems are morons, and the public is screwed.
PS. Love the “momentarily startled” line. Can you even imagine what Bernanke is thinking when he testifies in front of those people?
PPS. How may more years do we have to wait for that “necessary reckoning?”
PPPS. The NYT piece is entitled “House Members Press Bernanke to Shun Further Action.” I’m picturing an equivalent headline in 1896: “William Jennings Bryan Encourages Government to Avoid Removing Workingmen From Cross of Gold Until Necessary Reckoning Is Accomplished.”
HT: Christopher Mahoney.
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18. July 2012 at 12:01
It’s really hard an counter-intuitive, I guess, to penetrate the logical appeal of the idea that if things just get bad enough, they will automatically right themselves and all will be fine.
As for the politics, not that anyone listens to me, but my constant line now is that Dems have to be as critical of the Fed for inaction as the Rs are of action. As it stands, the Fed faces a political check in only one direction, and it’s actions reflect that.
18. July 2012 at 12:13
This post is so frigging infuriating I want to stab something.
And he was congratulated by one side, and crucified by the other for doing too much already? What the effing crap??? “The GOP is evil, the Dems are morons, and the public is screwed” — AMEN to that!
18. July 2012 at 12:29
Adam,
I could not agree more. I wonder how many pundits on the left who agree with us fear criticizing the dems at this point in the election process ? I have been trying to bug Krugman, Delong and Thoma about it…not that it matters much.
18. July 2012 at 12:31
This post lets me know I was right all along. Market monetarists are evil morons who want to screw the public, while believing they are good intelligent people who are helping the public.
18. July 2012 at 12:45
>>The GOP is evil, the Dems are morons, and the public is screwed.>>
Yep
18. July 2012 at 12:54
The GOP is evil, the Dems are morons, and the public is screwed.
The parties aren’t so evil and moronic that they aren’t doing what it takes to please their constituents to get themselves re-elected. It follows that…
1) The public is screwing itself, or
2) The median voter is doing fine, safely kept his job during the entire recession and got his raises too, and today also is getting what he wants: “don’t rock the boat”. Only a minority is getting screwed. The median voter calls the tune.
Of course, the two possibilities are not fully mutually exclusive.
18. July 2012 at 13:01
Jim Glass:
1) The public is screwing itself, or
And who said I was wrong that market monetarists think like central planners, and call for central plans? Those who say the public are screwing themselves are those who almost always end up wanting the public to get a central plan good and hard.
2) The median voter is doing fine, safely kept his job during the entire recession and got his raises too, and today also is getting what he wants: “don’t rock the boat”. Only a minority is getting screwed. The median voter calls the tune.
The median voters can help the minority who are getting screwed, if the state just stopped trying to tinker and control the economy. I know huh? People helping other people in unhampered self-interested exchanges without mommy and daddy to tell them how much to spend and what interest rates to set…who knew?
18. July 2012 at 13:06
Jim Glass…
18. July 2012 at 13:07
MY GOD!!!!
Scotty my boy, you are now just simply IGNORING my sage advice, while everyday it becomes the bestest most compelling card you have in your hand to play.
Shut up about Evil GOP.
And start giving them handjobs!
Jesus man, you want the GOP to support NGDPLT, so tell them what it ACTUALLY DOES that they would like!
I mean seriously, WHY does it matter if they act on your ideas for entirely different reasons than the ones you think count???
WHY must you HIDE the big giant meaty stinkbomb for Matty and DeKrugman that is NGDPLT????
WHY must you keep trying to LIE about what it does and who it does it too???
——
Look man, you want conservatives in Congress to start leaning on Ben in hearings to adopt NGDP level targeting, right?
They are NEVER going to say “print more now” but you can get them to demand NGDPLT at 4.5%
But you gotta spend the next couple months proving you are worth trusting AND you gotta show them that this policy is a super tricky butthurt to liberals for a generation.
So TELL THEM!
Jesus Kee-ryst man! TELL THEM!
18. July 2012 at 13:07
I wish there was an edit function…
18. July 2012 at 13:08
“The GOP is evil, the Dems are morons, and the public is screwed.”
I can barely tell the difference. The difference between a Republican and a Democrat is about the same as the difference between Coke and Pepsi. And, people are just as fiercely loyal to thier soda-pop as they are to their political party.
18. July 2012 at 13:10
Doug,
Pepsi sucks.
18. July 2012 at 13:10
Some awesome Obama re-election charts:
http://www.aei-ideas.org/2012/07/the-chart-that-shows-just-how-much-reelection-trouble-obama-is-in/
18. July 2012 at 13:11
I broadly agree with your economic points but I think if you want to effect real change, you need to focus on convincing the under-educated public. That demands a different language through different media sources.
The economics are straightforward to an economist but the economists aren’t making the decisions. Mr. Bernanke is no longer an economist. He is now accountable to politicians. That isn’t meant to be a criticism. It’s meant to explain his motivations. He needs to justify his actions to politicians but the fundamentals of macro economics are completely unknown to most members of Congress and (more importantly) completely unknown to the voters and donors.
I had the problem very tersely put to me the other night by your average Republican voter. He said, “Now I don’t want you to get all PhD on my #?$ but I think we can both agree that you can’t get out from under a debt burden by piling on the debt.” I was at a complete loss as to how to explain that the rules are different at the national level–at least not without going “PhD” on him.
He believes that the national and world economies need to be handled using the same principles as household budgets. And he is the guy the politicians are listening to. Mr. Donating Voter. Mr. Bernanke cannot convince Congress. The economics community needs to convince Mr. Donating Voter to have any effect on Congress and thus the Fed.
Teaching the voting public requires a different language. Right now they believe “Debt makes you bankrupt and poor. You get out of debt by earning more than you spend.” It’s a very simple idea that works well at the household level–the level all voters are most familiar with. More importantly, this is an idea that their daddies taught them so there is a lot of emotion invested in the idea. And you can’t fight an emotionally placed idea through logic.
The public needs to be educated in two ways. First, they need to learn to mentally separate national budget economics from their household budgets. I say this because you can’t fight their tightly held beliefs about household money but you just might be able to separate it from the national budget.
Second, they need an explanation of the monetary system that is easy to understand and easy to remember. It should really be structured as a story. Something the average voter would be able to tell their own children.
I know I’m asking a lot. I’ve been trying to come up with a suitable “story of monetary theory” every since my run in with the in-law mentioned earlier.
18. July 2012 at 13:15
Morgan,
If you think you can get the Tea bagger dominated repubs to abandon their Gold Buggery inspired faith… for something as esoteric as what the M&M’s call for…you are smoking something too strong…
The GOPers are more like MF than you.
18. July 2012 at 13:21
The Rep. from St. Louis complained about high unemployment. Rep. Frank asked if the full employment mandate has interfered with ability to stabilize prices–the answer was “no” and “we are prepared to do whatever Congress asks.”
So, 2 Dems touched on the mandates, but neither directly asked “Why has the Fed failed?”
Of course, Ron Paul was ranting like a loon. But I do agree that having deliberations and decisions open is better.
18. July 2012 at 13:29
Morgan,
Do you know that you are a very faith based person? You overestimate the force of will…and it clouds your rationality.
Right now the election is easier for Obama to win than Mittens. Baring any major plunge in unemployment or some other shock… Obama wins.
To keep up I recommend two tools…
NATE SILVER’s 538…the best pollster.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
And “270 to Win”…an interactive map. It is fun to play with, If you are a politics nerd.
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=oSI&referring_service=facebook#.UAXGHoMKFHc.facebook
18. July 2012 at 13:30
Matt Yglesias is bald
18. July 2012 at 13:46
So the question is…In today’s America, Is it easier to educate the morons or reform the evil ?
18. July 2012 at 14:02
“Other Republicans cautioned that an expansion of the Fed’s existing efforts could deepen the nation’s financial challenges by postponing a necessary reckoning and eventually accelerating the pace of inflation.”
I don’t know, are you sure that both the GOP and Dems aren’t morons?
18. July 2012 at 14:09
Do you think Ben will eventually give in to outright begging for Dems to grow some balls? Or maybe say “f-it” and push the red button on his own?
Do you think both parties think keeping Ben neutered is there ticket to the white house?
18. July 2012 at 14:21
See Scott, Bill Ellis has NO IDEA what NGDPLT does to the size of government.
You think you are putting your best foot forward… not quite.
How can you bitch at the right when you do such a shit job selling them…
Bill and the GOP can’t both be happy, and your plan will lose Bill’s support the MOMENT he grasps what it really does.
Bill, I’m not faith based. I have a working theory that held strong since the 1980’s.
But if Obama wins, my theory doesn’t hold. If Obama loses, which my theory predicts, then Scott loses our bet, and bows to my superior insights.
The cards haven’t even been played yet, the Sept. economic news is likely to decide this thing.
And keep your eye on the youth turnout.
18. July 2012 at 14:29
Morgan,
Tell me what it really does.
18. July 2012 at 14:37
Morgan,
How does NGDPLT prevent a society from building and maintaining a social welfare system ?
18. July 2012 at 14:41
Chaos Surfing,
I don’t think Ben could give a sh!t what advice he is receiving from Congress.
18. July 2012 at 14:47
Doug M,
Why is he ignoring his past work then? What changed his mind ?
18. July 2012 at 15:04
I can say, however, that at least one Democrat very bluntly told the Chairman to “get to work”
http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2012/07/17/senator-chuck-schumer-to-ben-bernanke-get-to-work-mr-chairman/
“Senator Schumer took his five minutes to give a short speech, bashing Republicans for blocking what he felt was bipartisan legislation. Citing that tax cuts, infrastructure investments, and other policies had failed, he urged the chairman to take any action possible at the time.”
“Get to work Mr. Chairman,” he said to Bernanke, after interpreting previous statements made by the chairman as a call for fiscal stimulus. Schumer also made Bernanke stress the fact that inflationary risks are “reasonably low,” implying that the problem was deflation.”
18. July 2012 at 15:07
Morgan you spend so much time worrying about the trouble the President is in. I’d be much more worried about Romney’s chances of winning right now.
Appreciate your theory. My theory, is Romney needs to release his tax returns.
I was listening to Rush and Sean Hannity today-I love hearing their frustration. They want Mitt to go all birther and start demanding Obama’s school records.
That ought to sober you. That’s all Romney has left. The birther line and that Obama isn’t a “real American.”
18. July 2012 at 15:10
Mike,
I saw that too. Three cheers for Chuck Schumer!
But it would be nice if he were a bit more specific.
18. July 2012 at 15:17
Jeff, You said:
“Matt Yglesias is bald”
Yes, NOW he’s bald. But before?
I mostly agree with the other comments, except MF of course.
JerryC, The Fed always does what the consensus of economists thinks should be done. If most economists become market monetarist, I guarantee the Fed will start targeting NGDP.
18. July 2012 at 15:22
@ Scott
“The GOP is evil, the Dems are morons, and the public is screwed.”
At first I thought Morgan wrote that.
The GOP is evil (because the ends justify the means)
The Dems are morons (always have been)
The public is screwed (because they don’t own stuff)
Just channeling Morgan…
@ Mike Sax,
Obama is Kenyan and Romney is Swiss, LOL!
18. July 2012 at 15:25
Mike and Morgan,
What happens when the questions about Romney’s tax retruns get more pointed ?
Can he avoid the press asking him if he ever paid 10% …5%…0% ?
What if he refuses to answer ?
And it is not just how much he paid…Did he take the amnesty for his swiss accounts? How much tax has he avoided with his Cayman Island accounts?
There are so many ‘Big Gets” for the talking heads involving question about Mitten’s returns that unless he decides to only deal with Fox…( and that would get pointed out ) he is going to be dogged..and it will not look good.
18. July 2012 at 16:02
Stevve you do a good job. You can play Morgan in the movie.
18. July 2012 at 16:04
Bill Ellis-the beauty of it is that Romney gets hurt whether he refuses to release his taxes or if he does-unless he really doesn’t have anything to hide.
Which is impossible-if he had nothing to hide he would have released it a long time ago.
18. July 2012 at 16:10
I wrote: “Obama is Kenyan and Romney is Swiss, LOL!”
I wonder when Ron Paul will confess to being Afrikander…
18. July 2012 at 16:10
Michael Sankowski again. http://monetaryrealism.com/why-500bn-and-not-500-quadrillion-i-bothered-to-do-the-math/
18. July 2012 at 16:13
Bill Elis,
Why is he ignoring his past work then? What changed his mind?
I would guess that the decision of the FOMC is the consensus of 16 people. The voting members are ususally all in agreement. It makes the Fed pretty conservative (as in status quo, as opposed to right-wing).
Mitt and his tax return… What does he get by releasing his returns? Why give the opposition more ammo? Because it looks like he has something to hide. But, will he get more negatives for not provding the documents or for not answering the questions based on what people find inside?
18. July 2012 at 16:14
Mike,
Do you know what Morgan is talking about ? What is it I don’t get about Level targeting …NGDP or otherwise ?
18. July 2012 at 16:29
Doug…”I would guess that the decision of the FOMC is the consensus of 16 people.”
OK good point. But even if you believe that Ben can not be swayed by Congress and the President because of the 15, do you think that all of them could withstand a real push from the Politicos ?…I don’t know.
Mitt’s Tax returns…I am not saying he should or should not release them…just that either way they are going to dog him.
Mitt has been at a disadvantage from the beginning. Not just because of his returns. Romneycare, his record as gov and Baine too. But I doubt that any other of the GOP candidates would be doing much better. Maybe Jon Huntsman ?
It is really kinda amazing, There is NO WAY Obama should have a chance. It just goes to show how far the GOP as moved away from the mainstream.
18. July 2012 at 16:33
“the Dems are morons”
On this issue I strongly agree. Here Bernanke and the FOMC, by blatently refusing to comply with the Fed mandate to achieve maxium employment, are successfully sabotaging Obama and the Democrats economically. There is no question that this is what they are doing. The only thing that is open to dispute is whether this is intentional or the result of such things as adherence to fallacious theories and dogmas, excessive caustion, or rank incompetence.
18. July 2012 at 16:36
“Mitt has been at a disadvantage from the beginning”
Not so. With Bernanke and the FOMC sabotaging Obama economically, he has a totally unfair advantage that may well give him a presidency he does not deserve.
18. July 2012 at 16:37
Doug you said:
“Mitt and his tax return… What does he get by releasing his returns? Why give the opposition more ammo? Because it looks like he has something to hide. But, will he get more negatives for not provding the documents or for not answering the questions based on what people find inside?”
Well what he gets for releasing his tax returns all depends on whether he has something to hide. Remember when Obama released his longform birth certificate that effectveily eneded the Birther movement over night.
If he doesn’t release them the Democrats have an issue that they can flag until Novebmer.
The idea that it’s “just more ammunition” ignores the fact that if Romney gave us his taxes and it turned out he had nothing to hide he’d win.
Of course if he did have nothing to hide he would have releaed them already.
My guess is he thinks the issue will die if he refuses to release but that’s not going to happen. It’s a potent weapon for the Dems and the media likes it too as it gives them a big sensationai issue to keep on flagging. It won’t go away if he doesn’t release.
18. July 2012 at 16:54
Ok, so modern monetary theory (please be forgiving of mistakes in terminology) is subject to lots of debate and not accepted by the majority. I get that. But why not? I’ve found a lot of material supporting MMT(and related) but when I look for arguments against i’ve only been able to find comments along the lines of “just not right”. Where can I read the logical supported arguments against? Thanks!
18. July 2012 at 16:57
Bill,
“How does NGDPLT prevent a society from building and maintaining a social welfare system”
It DOESN’T!!!!
In fact here is the PERFECT social welfare system:
http://pegobry.tumblr.com/post/21427545322/morgan-warstler-via-steve-randy-waldman
—–
Bill, NGDPLT GUTS PUBLIC EMPLOYEES.
We have a level target 4.5% = but really that is a HARD CAP.
It means that now when we are hitting our heads on 4.5%, EVERYONE knows we can instantly make room under the cap – so we can keep borrowing rates low – IF WE CUT PUBLIC EMPLOYEES.
End the USPS! And overnight we have less GDP and plenty of room to keep growing.
Economy is 4.5% inflation and ZERO RGDP – guess who doesn’t get COLA adjustments?
Public employees.
Economy is zoom at 4.5% RGDP and ZERO inflation, guess who doesn’t get a raise???
Public employees.
Bill, Scott admits this… when we have a clear single target EVERYONE becomes HYPER SENSITIVE to any kind of government growth.
—–
We’re not talking about transfer payments – I SUPPORT transfer payments, we’re talking about firing 6M of the 22M public employees over the next 10 years.
Bill, what I want is a government BUILT BY GUYS LIKE ME – Internet guys, who start with the idea that everyone has to own a smart phone, and that everything they do with government is based on it.
GOV2.0: there is an app for that.
Real progressives have to be ANTI-Public employee Unions Bill, and so do real Keynesians.
This is never about a social safety net – go read my plan, it is teh awesome.
18. July 2012 at 17:06
I don’t care if Romney ever releases a thing, I don’t think it hurts him.
I believe that deep down the small sliver of Independent voters who matter RESPECT Romney deeply and they just LIKE Obama. I don’t think most people are impressed by Obama.
I think Romney is more Presidential. I think people will come to see this more and more.
I also suspect that there’s no amount of bad corporate dirt you can drag out on a guy who specializes in corporate turn around – he’s got enough wins, that nobody cares about losses.
But mainly, I think that the hegemony, the A power, the top 1/3 of society, I think they are going to turn out in droves.
And I think the C power is going to stay home because the economy is in the toilet and they haven’t started to get free shit yet.
But we shall see.
18. July 2012 at 17:28
Morgan, Your “PERFECT social welfare system” is not.
It does not provide enough money for people to live on. Just because you set up an auction for the labor of the unemployed does not mean that they will magically have enough money to live on. If you can give people enough money to live on, society will never go for it.
Also it assumes that the skills of all of the unemployed will be in demand. How much demand is there for 60 year olds in walkers ?
If the government grows is at fixed size in relation to GDP why can’t pubic employees get raises ?
18. July 2012 at 17:31
UGGG69, I hope it’s not as uninformed as the previous critique. He didn’t even seem to know what I was proposing.
Jerry, I dealt with some MMTers a while back, but it seemed more like a cult to me. It’s impossible to pin them down. Every time they’d say X, I’d say “Oh, so you believe X” then they get indignant and deny believing X. I finally gave up. It seems to be some sort of model that’s obsessed with accounting relationships, which is very dangerous in macroeconomics.
Nick Rowe had some good stuff on their views a while back, I’d suggest digging up his posts.
18. July 2012 at 17:34
Mike Sax,
Obama released his birth certificate two years after he was elected.
Mitt’s tax return is 100 pages each year. No matter what is says, there will be something for someone to pick apart.
18. July 2012 at 17:34
Bill Ellis,
“It just goes to show how far the GOP as moved away from the mainstream.”
In 2006 Democrats sweep congress on a mandate “Stop Bush”
2008 Obama is elected
2009 Scott Brown elected on a mandate of 41 Republicans to filibuster Obamacare
2010 moderate GOP candidates ousted by Tea Party. GOP wins congress on a mandate to “Stop Obama”
and people say that Washington is unresponsive to the will of the voters. “Our” representatives are doing exactly what we have given them instructions to do.
18. July 2012 at 20:08
Dough if that’s true why aren’t the Romney people picking apart Obama’s tax returns? He’s given 8 years of them.
Everybody has done this back to the 60s. Romney is the first one to decide he doesn’t have to. He’s not being asked to do anything everyone else hasn’t done who’s run for President.
Again, if he had nothing to hide he would release them.
18. July 2012 at 20:32
ssumner:
I mostly agree with the other comments, except MF of course.
My comments wouldn’t be as convincing without this “blessing.” It’s how I know I’m on the right track.
18. July 2012 at 20:39
UGGG69, I hope it’s not as uninformed as the previous critique. He didn’t even seem to know what I was proposing.
Oh don’t worry, his latest informed post is even more trenchant than his last informed post.
FTA:
“He’s also implying he’s discovered some special new futures market which the real world futures markets didn’t feel worthy of launching over the last 175 years. Hmmm.
Ouch.
19. July 2012 at 00:25
“The GOP is evil, the Dems are morons, and the public is screwed.”
Hear, hear!
19. July 2012 at 06:57
Bill, you are an idiot. I’m tired of it.
1. My plan ROCKS.
2. It delivers enough to live on – in more than most cases it delivers more than minimum wage. It, like all good plans, of course still requires TWO EARNERS in a household, America is not going to subsidize the end of the economic compulsion to cohabitate.
$240 + 50% of your bid rate gets us there dear man, it gets us there.
ALSO please notice the cost of services drops in precisely the places where lots of folks on on this system.
Finally, after we agree on dual earners, and see where prcies go too, I have no problem if the wage has to increase – just understand dear buddy, this isn’t about that.
This is about EVERYONE having a bossy boss in the private sector they have to answer too EVERY WEEK, or take a competing bid they like more.
Suddenly those companies like WalMart have to pay a wage PREMIUM to keep a stable force, since everyone can jump into this system and find something they enjoy more.
Whether it is a adult roommate, two mommies with kids, or a loving couple – that’s the deal, that’s what we will cover.
3. SMART GREEDY BUSINESSMEN will want to hire 60 year olds in walkers. They will work from home and be telemarketers 40 hours a week – see a company called LIVEOPS to help you understand.
You really just talk out your ass don’t you Bill?
Bring your very best on my plan bub, there’s a reason Scott (and all thinking people) endorses it.
19. July 2012 at 11:59
What is particularly fascinating to me is that the NYT article has been extensively edited since this entry was posted. The relevant section now reads as follows:
“They questioned whether the Fed’s existing efforts were bolstering growth and suggested any benefits had been exhausted. They fretted that the Fed was seeding higher inflation and postponing a necessary reckoning with the federal debt.
“The truth is the Federal Reserve cannot rescue Americans from the consequences of failed economic and regulatory policies passed by Congress and signed by the president,” said the committee chairman, Representative Spencer Bachus, Republican of Alabama.
Democrats made no countervailing effort to convince Mr. Bernanke that he should take additional action, instead congratulating the Fed chairman in the manner of people confident that they were speaking to an ally. ”
To me, this has an entirely different tone than the excerpt originally posted…being both more credible (actually includes a direct quote rather than merely an NYT reporter’s characterization) – and much less supportive of the “evil” indictment.
Prof. Sumner – Is it possible that the bias of your preferred sources colors your views?
22. July 2012 at 08:19
Neil, Obviously I was half joking when I wrote that. Some in the GOP are afraid QE will help Obama get elected. Others like Ron Paul are just misguided.
Of course it’s still an idiotic argument, for all sorts of reasons.
I’m not biased toward the NYT, I’ve bashed them many times.
27. October 2012 at 16:18
This past week, Trump offered to give $5 million to a charity of Obama’s choice if he releases his college and passport records. Obama responded by telling his own joke about him and Trump fighting while growing up in Kenya. http://www.bit.ly/WRFiT5