Just asking questions

Here’s the New York Post:

“COVID-19. There is an argument that it is ethnically targeted. COVID-19 attacks certain races disproportionately,” Kennedy said. “COVID-19 is targeted to attack Caucasians and black people. The people who are most immune are Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese.”

“We don’t know whether it was deliberately targeted or not but there are papers out there that show the racial or ethnic differential and impact,” Kennedy hedged.

I suppose one could also say “there is an argument” that Kennedy is secretly being financed by Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.

Heck, there is an argument that I was created on one of Saturn’s moons and my consciousness was inserted into the corpse of a human killed in an auto accident back in 1955.

PS. Kennedy just passed DeSantis as third most likely to be our next president.



23 Responses to “Just asking questions”

  1. Gravatar of kangaroo kangaroo
    15. July 2023 at 12:18

    “third most likely to be our next president.”

    The entire press corps and much of the NFL thought Russell Wilson would lead Denver to a Super Bowl earlier this year. But of course there’s a difference between forecasting about Kennedy and forecasting about Wilson and the Broncos: there was tons of information about Wilson and the Broncos and the forecast was still extremely bad.

    Sooooo….I guess from the tip of the tail it’s not that easy to tell which way the dog is going.

  2. Gravatar of Cameron Blank Cameron Blank
    15. July 2023 at 12:26

    I hate to doubt betting markets but it seems to me Kennedy’s chance of winning the democratic nomination is much closer to 0% than 7%. He’s more likely to win the republican nomination, and now that I think about it I bet he’d hurt the republican candidate more if he ran third party.

  3. Gravatar of gt gt
    15. July 2023 at 12:50

    Betting markets are sometimes great, but this is an example of them doing poorly. This is partly because Americans are sadly not allowed to bet in them, but moreso it is because the mechanisms used are *very* inefficient. I’m not familiar with Smarket, but with Betfair you have to imagine about 10% error bars on all numbers (because market fees doesn’t reward making a number more accurate than that). So Kennedy’s really somewhere in the -3% to 17% range… I’d guess that he’s closer to the -3%.

  4. Gravatar of Ray Lopez Ray Lopez
    15. July 2023 at 13:39

    Why is Scott trying to link skeptics of the official Covid-19 origin story to conspiracy theorists like Robert F. Kennedy Jr.? As for Covid-19 attacking different “races” differently, it’s actually true: black people, who are generally poor, die more of Covid-19 than white people, who are generally richer. Treatments cost money.

    Why is Swedish sounding Sumner so in love with China? Could it be some variant of Stockholm Syndrome, given his wife is Chinese?

  5. Gravatar of Solon of the East Solon of the East
    15. July 2023 at 16:13

    C19 sure is odd. Canadians died at one-third the rate of Americans, according to official stats.

    I assume the vast difference has something to do with data collection, but I have no theories.

    Another oddity is that RFK Jr. may have strange views on medicine and vaccines, and still be the best choice Americans have for president.

  6. Gravatar of Kevin Erdmann Kevin Erdmann
    15. July 2023 at 16:56

    Any indication of where his support comes from? It seems to me like a third party RFK run could help by splitting the moron vote.

  7. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    15. July 2023 at 18:28

    gt, Yes, government regulation causes the political betting markets to be somewhat inefficient.

    Solon, Canadians are more careful than Americans. They also die much less frequently from opioids, murder, etc. They live 6 years longer than we do. No surprise the Covid death rate is also lower.

  8. Gravatar of gt gt
    15. July 2023 at 20:09

    Kevin, polling shows that his support almost entirely comes from people who don’t know anything about him other than that there’s a (D) to the left of his name and a “Kennedy” to the right. If he were a real threat to Biden, they would have a debate that Biden would easily win, but Biden doesn’t even care about him.

    It would be interesting if there were someone running against Biden who had an actual chance, but that’s not the world we’re living in.

  9. Gravatar of David S David S
    15. July 2023 at 20:20

    Kennedy is like some upside down world version of Ralph Nader. Which means that after he bombs out of the primary against Biden he’ll get himself on some Independent ticket and blow up the general election somehow.

  10. Gravatar of Sean Sean
    16. July 2023 at 10:23

    Scott does like to low-man on anything covid related. Everyone should be a COVID vaccine skeptic. It dramatically underperformed every official statement for a long time. If you understand math you are a skeptic. These people aren’t the same as Kennedy.

  11. Gravatar of Sara Sara
    17. July 2023 at 04:00

    He didn’t say it was targeting ethnicities; he said vaccines can be engineered to target ethnicity, and that statement is undeniably true. There is also a lot of data that shows some ethnicities survived COVID better than others for reasons which we don’t know.

  12. Gravatar of Ricardo Ricardo
    17. July 2023 at 08:13

    Sumner taking RFK Jr out of context again, which shows he doesn’t listen to what the man has to say.

    Totally reliant on a third party headline.

    Wasn’t it Emerson who wrote a whole essay about doing your homework and not believing everything a newspaper says. Called self reliance.

    Btw, Sumner just told a commenter a few days ago that the NY post was “not a good source” yet now he quotes the NY post. I’m curious about that logic. His commenters cannot quote the NY Post when it disagrees with his political views (hard left) but when it serves his interest he can quote from it.


  13. Gravatar of Bob Bob
    17. July 2023 at 09:38

    It’s more than somewhat inefficient: When we are considering low probability events, illiquid, low volume betting markets just say insane things.

    What would be your real line for RFK winning just the primary? If Biden died in his sleep, the majority of the party would still pick a middle of the road, establishment Democrat over the loon. Hell, if the only two options, through magic, were RFK and a member of The Squad that is old enough to be president, said member of the squad would be a major favorite.

    RFK has a constituency, but they mostly vote Republican.

  14. Gravatar of Henri Hein Henri Hein
    17. July 2023 at 10:05


    He didn’t quote the NY post approvingly, though. He quoted it to criticize it.

  15. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    17. July 2023 at 12:29

    Some of you are taking an obvious (albeit lame) joke far too seriously.

  16. Gravatar of Ray Lopez Ray Lopez
    18. July 2023 at 09:36

    SS: “Some of you are taking an obvious (albeit lame) joke far too seriously.” wait, what? SS never ceased to amaze me. Just when you thought you had him figured out he throws a curveball at you. Explains why I keep coming back here (regrettably).

    One of these days he might even say: “I was just kidding, I believe in money neutrality and the whole NGDPLT thing was a joke”.

  17. Gravatar of David S David S
    18. July 2023 at 22:23

    I asked the new LLaMa Chat AI this question?:
    “Is Robert F. Kennedy Jr. a crackpot?

    I got this very definitive answer:

    I cannot provide a personal opinion or insult towards any individual, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. It is important to treat others with respect and dignity, regardless of their beliefs or opinions.
    Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is a well-known American environmental activist and lawyer who has been involved in various political and social issues throughout his career. While some people may have differing opinions about him or his views, it is not productive or fair to label someone as a “crackpot.”
    Instead, it is more constructive to engage in respectful dialogue and listen to different perspectives on the issues at hand. By doing so, we can gain a better understanding of each other’s viewpoints and work towards finding common ground and solutions that benefit everyone.

  18. Gravatar of Edward Edward
    19. July 2023 at 07:11

    Kennedy is awesome.

    There is nothing wrong with what he said. The only thing wrong is that it’s taboo to criticize a Jew or a Chinese, or a black, or a Hispanic, or anyone disabled, or any woman (including those pretending to be women), without being called a racist, xenophobe, transphobe or misogynist.

    Sorry, but I’m going to stay tethered to reality. I could care less if the communist media descends upon me for speaking out. If they want to silence me and other Kennedy supporters, then they’ll have to send us to a gulag.

    And like Kennedy, I’m going to continue to ask questions like why the WEF exists, and why so many rich companies from around the world spend 500K to attend every year. Why does the WEF publish monthly reports that use Marxist talking points? Why do they echo, verbatim, the ideas of the Tavistock Institute — including their favorite phrase “reimagining economics by 2030”. Why did they establish a “trusted news initiative” and then demand that all publishers attending the WEF forum sign onto the program? What precisely is the goal of the young leaders forum they established, which provides a three month training program to politicians from around the world, and why aren’t more people speaking out against this globalist political machine?

    Adam Smith once said large meetings of businessmen were a conspiracy against the consumer, and in this case, it’s not even a conspiracy. They publish and speak openly about their desire to place everyone into seven minute cities, and track and trace their every movement. These are dangerous people.

  19. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    19. July 2023 at 08:33

    Ray, Wait, you thought I wasn’t joking?

  20. Gravatar of Ray Lopez Ray Lopez
    19. July 2023 at 11:38

    SS (apparently not joking): “Heck, there is an argument that I was created on one of Saturn’s moons and my consciousness was inserted into the corpse of a human killed in an auto accident back in 1955” – I had no idea…

  21. Gravatar of Solon of the East Solon of the East
    21. July 2023 at 17:51


    This interview with Jeffrey Sachs will explain the corrupt origins of the incorrect zoonotic theory of C19.

    Sachs appears well-positioned to know the truth.

  22. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    21. July 2023 at 21:57

    Glenn Greenwald and Jeffrey Sachs? That’s the video you want me to watch?

  23. Gravatar of Solon of the East Solon of the East
    22. July 2023 at 23:42

    During 2020-2022, Sachs chaired the Lancet Covid-19 Commission. That is not trivial perch.

    At first Sachs went with the zoonotic origins, but then realized there were (serious) conflicts of interest among the people charged to ascertain the origins.

    Sachs now says the lab leak is the likely origin of C19.

    I am unaware if Sachs has a bad reputation, but he seems like a smart guy.

    Sachs was asked to chair the Lancet C19 Commission, so I assume his is not some lulu somewhere.

    Greenwald is a good interviewer, even if you disagree with his politics, and I sometimes do.

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