Got any ideas?
Here’s the Financial Times:
Three weeks ago, Sanna Marin, Finland’s prime minister, retweeted a link to an article by a Finnish academic together with the following quote: “There is something seriously wrong with the prevailing ideas of monetary policy when central banks protect their credibility by driving economies into recession.”
Defenders of those prevailing ideas predictably pushed back, warning against second-guessing independent central banks or not valuing their credibility. But defensiveness is the wrong response. Not just because Marin didn’t actually criticise any central bank actions. But, more profoundly, because avoiding a debate over whether our macroeconomic regime is fit for purpose is more perilous than having one. . . .
Like in the 1980s, in time bright economists will suggest better ways of designing monetary policy against energy price shocks.
Wouldn’t it be nice if there was some sort of alternative to inflation targeting, which was able to account for energy price shocks.
Got any ideas?
PS. This sentence had me scratching my head:
In 2020 and 2021, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank vowed to tolerate a period of higher inflation if employment had further to rise or there would be little room to loosen policy in case of a downturn. But this new attitude fell at the first hurdle.
Umm, where to begin . . .
Tags:
23. October 2022 at 08:49
The Age of Unpredictability, that’s the tile of Tyler Cowen’s post on his blog this morning. In the post Cowen repeats a common refrain: we are in a period of increasing risk of war, even nuclear war. My comment to Cowen’s post is that the Fed’s anti-inflation policy is smothering the global economy, causing a financial crisis in many developing countries especially those with debt denominated in dollars. It’s no coincidence that WWII followed (occurred during) the Great Depression. Sumner is right: we better find a better way to tame inflation than sinking the economy or we are on a certain path to war.
23. October 2022 at 11:35
Rayward, Let me know when the Fed begins its “anti-inflation policy”.
23. October 2022 at 12:12
sumner and rayward are less entertaining than vronsky and anna k, but certainly equally tragic in their falsely abjured love for each other.
23. October 2022 at 22:03
The bullets in the gun theory…. The Fed can’t can’t do more now! What if things get worse and Fed is “out of bullets”?
It is a bad theory and the wrong metaphor.
I think a better metaphor would be water from a hose. Should firefighters work at 50% pressure for a house fire so they can be able to turn up the pressure if the whole block lights up?
24. October 2022 at 04:39
Yes, there is—-except we will not do it.
So, is there a second best? I assume second best is targeting inflation. Why is Fed failing? Are they trying to walk the classic fine line between recession and inflation? Probably——or maybe they are just hoping good will happen. Unemployment is in the 3s. What if decided to go to FAIT now (that is a joke—-they never heard of FAIT)
I always believed they could lower inflation just by choosing to do so. Perhaps they should keep lowering the forward rolling target. I am pretty sure most businesses and market participants would be happy with a known gradualist lowering target.
But the reality appears they actually do not know how to lower inflation——which seems ridiculous. Of course they know how. They do not need to fake commit to Volcker-ist methods.
Of course, there is also the possibility they do not know how to target because they are confused by macro issues which disables their ability to do monetary offsets.
If so, he should be fired. But, he should have already been fired.
24. October 2022 at 04:47
https://gusquixote.substack.com/p/konnech-eugene-yu-and-the-3-letter
It just so happens that Konnech’s entire company relies on tapping into government and personal records.
It also just so happens that an original co-founder of Konnech built the backbone of an entire string of Mainland companies that harvest and capitalize on government and personal records, which is now connected to all of Wuhan’s cloud — the largest in the Mainland, which houses all the covid19 virus data — and is a stated Communist Party A.I. database.
**Throughout this research process, every claim and suggestion that came out of True The Vote’s event, “The Pit,” has been found increasingly plausible, if not outright confirmed.**
24. October 2022 at 05:14
inflation is out of control. i use the dunkin donuts and local sports bar metric. DD has raised prices from 2.19 to 3.09 in 2022, in 3 steps, the latest from 2.89 to 3.09 this week; the local sports bar is always packed, and pizza pre time is always over 30 minutes, whereas in 2019 it was never more than 20. too much cash floating around. gold standard baby. purge the rottenness. fdr’s mellon was on the right path. the bernank in the tower presently.
24. October 2022 at 05:42
“Wouldn’t it be nice if there was some sort of alternative to inflation targeting, which was able to account for energy price shocks. Got any ideas?”
Since the source code logic of (dishonestly phrased as) “market” monetarism is Communism (central banking is the 5th plank of The Communist Manifesto), the logic admits no other ‘alternative’ that the advocates can claim OK now we’re’ done going from one dialectic to the next.
Site owner already invokes communism as thesis, death and destruction as antithesis, and ‘market monetarism’ as synthesis.
It is precisely because central banks backstop finance ALL government activity that permits crime families like the Bidens to wreak havoc in the energy industry to line their own pockets (crack addict Hunter Biden on board of Burisma Energy (Ukraine company)).
Because of that blackmail material, Zelensky has been syphoning tens of billions of taxpayer money (WHO AUDITS WHERE THE MONEY ACTUALLY GOES?) out of the US.
Ukraine all but owns and controls the White House right now because the Bidens are completely compromised by them. The Bidens took massive bribes from Ukraine (through Hunter’s acting as a ‘Board member’), to change US policy towards Ukraine, in favor of Ukraine.
Zelensky whines for and feels entitled to more US taxpayer dollars, and the Bidens ask ‘how much?’.
24. October 2022 at 06:23
“There is something seriously wrong with the prevailing ideas of monetary policy when central banks protect their credibility by driving economies into recession.”
Switching from inflation to NGDP targeting, while perhaps closer to optimal, will not assuage Marin’s concern in all situations. No matter what your target is, policy errors can occur. And when they do you can be in a situation where the central bank needs to slow nominal spending sharply which will tend to increase unemployment. If the central bank communicates that it is unwilling to ever allow unemployment to increase, regardless of where projections of its nominal anchor are, then the target will not be credible by definition. This is important because I get the sense that Marin, similar to Ezra Klein, is reflecting a common view amongst millennial/Gen Y intellectuals. It’s important for the Larry Summers and Scott Sumners of the world to explain the flaw in the younger generations thinking.
24. October 2022 at 08:07
Classical, Yes, mistakes would occur with NGDPLT, but they would be far smaller. What has happened over the past 2 years could never have happened under NGDPLT (if credible).
This is why I’m so upset over the FAIT fiasco—people still don’t understand how much damage was done by the Fed adopting such a flawed regime.
24. October 2022 at 08:32
The monetary transmission mechanism was channeled via interest rate manipulation since 1965, i.e., beginning with the old FED funds “BRACKET RACKET”. But banks aren’t intermediaries in the borrow short, to lend longer, savings-investment process.
In a fractional reserve system, the monetary transmission channel is via required reserves (which Powell eliminated).
That’s something the FED had authority to control, but never did. In practice, the bankers were able to usurp the FED’s “open market power”.
The American Bankers Association’s lobbyists, the most powerful oligarch, lobbied away required reserves and Reg. Q Ceilings. Yes, the payment’s system is primarily about politics, not economics. We live in a predatory society.
The money stock can never be properly managed by any attempt to control the cost of credit.
24. October 2022 at 08:39
By mid-1995 (a deliberate and misguided policy change by Alan Greenspan in order to jump start the economy after the July 1990 –Mar 1991 recession), legal, fractional, reserves (not prudential), ceased to be binding – as increasing levels of vault cash/larger ATM networks, retail deposit sweep programs (c. 1994), fewer applicable deposit classifications (including allocating “low-reserve tranche” & “reservable liabilities exemption amounts” c. 1982) & lower reserve ratios (requirements dropping by 40 percent c. 1990-91), & reserve simplification procedures (c. 2012), combined to remove reserve, & reserve ratio, restrictions.
Maybe required reserves weren’t “binding” on any expansion of commercial bank credit, but a decline in legal reserves always resulted in a swift negative response in the markets.
This was the direct cause of the GFC, the boom/bust in real-estate.
24. October 2022 at 08:42
https://kanekoa.substack.com/p/konnech-ceo-eugene-yu-worked-for
Konnech CEO Eugene Yu worked for the CCP.
Did anyone see Hu Jintao getting escorted out of the CCP summit?
https://www.politico.eu/article/ex-china-president-hu-jintao-escorted-out-communist-party/
Interdasting ‘timing’ isn’t it.
24. October 2022 at 08:54
Example: Some people think Feb 27, 2007, started across the ocean. “On Feb. 28, Bernanke told the House Budget Committee he could see no single factor that caused the market’s pullback a day earlier”.
In fact, it was home grown. It was the seventh biggest one-day point drop ever for the Dow. On a percentage basis, the Dow lost about 3.3 percent – its biggest one-day percentage loss since March 2003.
No, it was due to the big drop in required reserves.
24. October 2022 at 09:09
–““There is something seriously wrong with the prevailing ideas of monetary policy when central banks protect their credibility by driving economies into recession.”–
This is more or less just reality though. No matter your monetary policy, if NGDP is growing significantly above trend, it is going to require severe monetary policy tightening to get things back on track. The desired benefit of NGDP targeting is that it helps you stay closer to the target than other monetary policy regimes so that policy-induced demand shocks aren’t the driver of economic problems.
If the desired NGDP growth rate is 5%, the level target is at 110 but the level target is at 105, you’ll need a year of 0% NGDP growth to get back to target. In a 5% NGDP world, that’s going to mean a recession.
Some may say that you could target 4% NGDP for the next 5 years, but I don’t think we should expect that monetary policy could be so finely tuned. The economics actually have to play out in the real world.
In the real world, if workers wages have been rising by less than inflation and unemployment is still in the 3% context, they’ll try to raise their incomes to meet or exceed the experienced level of inflation by bargaining with their employers or taking a new job elsewhere. If business conditions are still strong, then businesses too will feel able to try and push through price increases to account for their own rising costs. The dynamics of a recession breaks this effect. Businesses are reluctant to raise prices due to fear of falling sales and workers are more easily given a small or zero raise since their alternatives aren’t great.
As an aside, it’s inaccurate to characterize 2022’s inflation the as merely an ‘energy price shock’. Nominal oil prices were higher in 2008 than 2022, and the surge in oil price shock in the mid-2000s was more severe than today. Natural gas is a bigger problem in Europe but inflation is severe in the United States which does not have the same issue with natural gas. For all the talk of global supply chain problems, Japan and Switzerland both have headline CPI in the low 3% context. This is mostly a demand side problem.
24. October 2022 at 09:19
Justin, Everything you say applies to NGDP targeting. But I don’t think the arguments apply to NGDPLT. With level targeting, the mistakes would be far, far smaller than with growth rate targeting, and the corrections would be much less painful. You’d already be correcting NGDP overshoots even before nominal wages started moving off trend.
So while in theory anything is possible, in practice NGDPLT would avoid the sort of problems that we face today.
And this is why the Fed’s FAIT fiasco was so costly, and so inexcusable.
24. October 2022 at 09:42
https://www.justice.gov/live
AG Garland to make an announcement on a ‘Significant National Security Matter’ at 10:45 pacific 1:45 eastern time.
One “guess”: He will announce a new threat called ‘Z’, the China version of ‘Q’, LOL.
24. October 2022 at 09:51
After smearing, slandering and intimidating people into believing ‘2020 election most secure in history’, calling skeptics ‘election deniers’, and knowing that the Democrats are going to get destroyed in the mid terms, NOW all of a sudden does the DOJ/FBI care about election integrity.
24. October 2022 at 10:08
The Democrat controlled DOJ and FBI must be PISSED that the information about CCP infiltration into our election systems has gone public after OPSEC disclosed it.
Now they’re suddenly posturing that the ‘PRC’ is a significant national security threat to the United States.
WHAT A COINCIDENCE.
24. October 2022 at 10:12
“Yes, mistakes would occur with NGDPLT, but they would be far smaller. What has happened over the past 2 years could never have happened under NGDPLT (if credible)”
I agree with this (you converted me long ago :)) But my point is that it would be dangerous to sell NGDPLT as a policy regime under which money would never need to be tightened in order to slow labour income. In fact, one advantage of targeting nominal labour income explicitly (I know – not going to happen) is that it would make clear to the public (and non-economist intellectuals) that there is an optimal growth rate for wages/income and that faster/more isn’t always better.
24. October 2022 at 10:47
https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/justice-department-accuses-chinese-agents-attempt-bribe-us-official
“The Justice Department ended the controversial Trump-era China Initiative earlier this year over concerns about anti-Asian bias and potential problems in academia.”
Exhibit #58,121 on how EVERYTHING ‘woke’ turns to shit.
Trump talked a lot about China’s infiltration, he actually defended America, despite the Democrats calling him ‘xenophobic’ as the excuse, while Biden on the other hand said ‘they’re not bad folks, folks’ and looked the other way.
Notice a pattern?
Biden has been compromised by both Ukraine AND China! If the DOJ wanted to arrest more CCP agents operating in the country, they should just look in Hunter Biden’s laptop.
24. October 2022 at 11:41
https://www.theepochtimes.com/new-email-reveals-answer-to-establishments-efforts-to-oust-trump_4815112.html
This email shows that the FBI intended to hide Steele’s main source behind CHS status after they had previously discovered Steele could not back up the claims in his dossier despite their offer of $1 million to Steele for any corroboration.
As a CHS, Danchenko would also be shielded from any external investigations—including those of Congress.
Of equal importance, Helson’s email also proves that the FBI planned to convert Danchenko into a CHS before the FBI had even interviewed Danchenko!
Had they thought the dossier was real, there would have been no reason to hide Danchenko. Instead, the FBI would’ve been touting the existence of such a crucial source.
That the efforts to effectively hide Danchenko started even before Danchenko had disavowed the dossier is critical evidence of the early commencement of the FBI’s efforts against Trump.
Had the FBI not done everything it could to conceal Danchenko’s existence by bestowing him with CHS status, the truth about the dossier would have likely been revealed and the effort to oust Trump would have collapsed.
24. October 2022 at 12:14
https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.lawd.189520/gov.uscourts.lawd.189520.90.0.pdf
Another ‘conspiracy theory’ is coming true.
Members of the government conspired with (and directed) social media platforms to censor people and topics they didn’t like because of “Mis, Dis and Malinformation” (AS THEY DEFINE IT).
Anyone seeing a pattern? Everything the msm called a ‘conspiracy theory’ is coming true.
Biden Admin is engaging in textbook FASCISM. Power of government weaponized to stifle free speech on private company assets = Fascism.
The Director of CISA within the Department of Homeland Security actually asserted that your THOUGHTS are ‘US infrastructure’ over which CISA perceives themselves as having control. They’re calling it ‘cognitive infrastructure’.
How Orwellian!
The Census Bureau, NARA, the FBI, the DOJ, Congress, CISA, State Dept., WH…ALL INFILTRATED BY DEMOCRAT PARTY FASCISTS.
While the country was suffering from a virus bioweapon, these bastards were working not to expose the origin or stop the cause or help the country, but to conspire (‘direct’) all the major information output nodes to censor speech that questioned or dissenter from THEIR ‘approved narrative’.
And these same sick projecting bastards label Trump a fascist, lol.
24. October 2022 at 13:26
re: “There is something seriously wrong with the prevailing ideas of monetary policy when central banks protect their credibility by driving economies into recession.”
Economic policy is backwards. The money stock has been rendered unintelligible. And the savings stock has been impounded.
Raising interest rates on available credit decreases the supply of loan funds, but not the supply of money.
24. October 2022 at 17:22
https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/nicholas-fondacaro/2022/10/24/interference-msnbc-pushes-foreign-countries-run-our
MSDNC hack explicitly calls for foreign interference in our elections.
MSM = clown show
25. October 2022 at 03:52
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/10/ignored-fake-news-special-agent-testifies-fbi-used-geo-tracking-identify-trump-supporters-us-capitol-jan-6-similar-2000-mules-investigation/
Another ‘conspiracy theory’ comes true. Tech used by 2000 Mules was indeed as accurate as the tech used by the FBI to track Jan 6 protesters.
25. October 2022 at 04:37
The loudest accusers of ‘Election Denier’ are ALREADY forming a narrative of denying the results of the mid terms before they even take place.
This is how the corrupt communicate their fear of losing to an incoming red wave of voters. They project.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/10/breaking-video-hillary-clinton-says-rightwing-extremists-already-plan-literally-steal-next-presidential-election/
25. October 2022 at 06:13
Classical, I agree.
25. October 2022 at 06:39
Scott,
Over the last few weeks I’ve seen more and more articles speculating that the Fed is going to reverse course soon and start growing the monetary base in order to lower interest rates to help boost a faltering economy.
Perhaps that is just idle speculation by pundits, but I would suspect that such a move, or the anticipation of such a move, would result in the market expecting longer term inflation to rise. In fact, when I look at the 10yr breakeven inflation rate:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE
the last month has seen a large move upwards from 2.15% to 2.6%. Maybe the pundits are right? Is there another reason for such an upward swing in inflation expectations, or is the breakeven rate even the right metric to judge something like this?
I have to admit that as someone with no background studying monetary policy, I’m completely confused by the Fed’s actions over the last couple of years. I thought that the Fed’s inflation targeting meant averaging inflation at 2% over time, then it appeared that they just want a 2% floor on inflation, now, based on the surge in TIPS rates over the last month, I’m increasingly doubting that they want bring the inflation rate down to 2% at all.
25. October 2022 at 07:21
Atlanta’s gDpNow R-gDp for the 3rd qtr. is estimated at 2.9% So, N-gDp is growing too fast.
25. October 2022 at 07:36
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/10/breaking-audit-results-primary-election-torrance-county-new-mexico-show-differences-hand-counts-sos-records-25/
New Mexico election fraud exposed, 2020 same thing!
Why is it that these “mistakes” are 99.999% in favor of Democrat candidates and against Republicans? Mathematically impossible without INTENT.
Trump won 2020.
tHe DeMoCrAts DoN’t ChEAt eLeCTiOnS! iT’S jUsT a COnSpiRaCy tHeoRy!
25. October 2022 at 08:02
Just to add to my post above, when I wrote “I’ve seen more and more articles speculating that the Fed is going to reverse course soon…”, I specifically had this article in mind:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/treasuries-u-yields-slide-poor-151028500.html
25. October 2022 at 08:54
The lid is about to be blown off the whole corrupt media.
https://truthsocial.com/@CitizenFreePress/posts/109226696537154358
25. October 2022 at 09:46
Tucker Carlson is now calling the Democrat Party a ‘child sacrificing cult’. EXACTLY what I wrote here, to smears and mockeries.
Tucker has the second highest rated cable news show in the country.
Crimes against children exposure is going to eradicate the Democrat Party as a political entity.
https://twitter.com/1CallClose/status/1247555750886625280
25. October 2022 at 11:29
MSS1914, Just because an article equates interest rates and monetary policy is no reason to do so yourself. That article doesn’t speculate about any increase in the monetary base, and there is no evidence that today’s fall in interest rates is due to an expectation that the Fed will ease policy. More likely, it reflects an expectation of a slowing economy. Note that long-term rates fell more than short-term rates, the opposite of what occurs with monetary easing.
Having said that, I wouldn’t blame people for being skeptical about the Fed’s commitment to its 2% inflation target. It’s earned that skepticism.
25. October 2022 at 12:10
New #s. Rapid deceleration in long-term money flows. Short-term have flattened.
25. October 2022 at 14:21
I know I’ve said this before but I think the facts that proven me correct. What exactly they target is of minor importance relative to actually sticking to the framework. If NGDPLT were the framework they’d still be dragging their heels just as they are today on FAIT. I wish we’d spend a lot more time thinking about how to ensure the integrity of frameworks vs frameworks themselves.
They’ve inexplicably given up a decent chunk of the progress they made on inflation expectations in just the past week.
25. October 2022 at 14:30
TBAC’s “buy back” idea:
See section 2
https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/Dealer-Agenda-November-2022.pdf
26. October 2022 at 02:55
https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_app/new-email-reveals-answer-to-establishments-efforts-to-oust-trump_4815112.html
26. October 2022 at 04:04
After last night’s mid term debates, I am not surprised the radical left msm is barely talking about them.
After months of decline, the Democrats have settled on their closing arguments.
“Vote for us so we can castrate and inject puberty blockers in your children, use your money to pay for abortions, put pornography in schools. If you don’t vote for us you’re Nazi and democracy will die.”
26. October 2022 at 05:46
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/fetterman-flips-fracking-says-he-has-always-supported-it
Fake news 4am ‘woke’ talking point today is to smear and slander anyone who questions Fetterman’s cognitive capacity as being guilty of a label they call ‘Ableism’.
So now the woke communist’s narrative controllers insist that people with brain damage are to be in charge of a state’s Law Enforcement, Healthcare, and Education, for MILLIONS of taxpayers. And if you disagree, you’re guilty of committing a made up word ‘ableism’.
Question: Why doesn’t the radical left ever engage in self accountability, but instead project and blame everyone else as guilty of this or that cognitive flaw?
Answer: It’s because their logic is ultimately based on power and control, not truth and reality. They claim everything is a ‘power struggle’, and that is supposed to excuse their ‘reactions’, but that’s in truth a mental projection of their own desire for power over truth, no matter how many people suffer from it. It’s not a recognition of anything except their own inconsistent ideology, their ‘Critical Theory’, or just ‘Theory’, that is to be elevated above reality, where reality is to bend or break, to bend or break things, industries, people, children, anything and everything.
Implement divide and conquer while maintaining ideological control for themselves.
When was the last time you saw any Democrat ‘leader’ waving the US flag, or displaying patriotism, or displaying love and unity? Why the constant invoking of division by race, religion, sex, class?
“The philosophers have hitherto only interpreted the world in various ways. The point, of course, is to change it.” – Karl Marx.
26. October 2022 at 08:25
Now we have Bank of Canada declaring victory and slowing the pace of tightening despite inflation well above target. Time will show we are now clearly in a regime of “financial asset dominance.” Central banks painted themselves into a corner over-utilizing the “wealth effect.” Was pretty easy to see this coming..
26. October 2022 at 09:20
Effem, See my reply to MSS1914.
26. October 2022 at 10:20
We’re about to see if the 2yr rate-of-change in money flows is working:
Parse date; R-gDp; Inflation
07/1/2022 ,,,,, 0.088 ,,,,, 1.195
08/1/2022 ,,,,, 0.124 ,,,,, 1.280
09/1/2022 ,,,,, 0.072 ,,,,, 1.143
10/1/2022 ,,,,, 0.093 ,,,,, 1.141
11/1/2022 ,,,,, 0.119 ,,,,, 0.906 deceleration
12/1/2022 ,,,,, 0.112 ,,,,, 0.594
01/1/2023 ,,,,, 0.107 ,,,,, 0.603
02/1/2023 ,,,,, 0.104 ,,,,, 0.543
03/1/2023 ,,,,, 0.111 ,,,,, 0.459
26. October 2022 at 10:33
Scott, fair point but I’d expect the Fed in it’s current situation to be more vocal at times when inflation expectations are ramping higher. Very odd to get a leak in the direction of easier policy, but not vice versa. I suppose Powell could set this all straight next week. We shall see.
26. October 2022 at 11:24
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/oct/25/infamous-steele-dossier-fbi-nurtured-biggest-hoax-/
Radical Left Democrats perpetrated the biggest hoax in American history.
$ millions wasted, public gaslighted/divided, innocent lives ruined, criminals go scot free.
26. October 2022 at 12:15
does anyone read george’s rants, screeds and zaftig theories?
26. October 2022 at 12:24
agrippa, I don’t even think about you.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/10/new-numbers-released-pennsylvania-indicate-massive-ballot-fraud-255000-unverified-voters-candidates-demand-decertification-immediately/
Cheating already starting in PA.
26. October 2022 at 22:11
does anyone read george’s rants, screeds and zaftig theories?
Yes. I do.
George’s comments are clearly not relavant to this post, but I don’t dismiss information out of hand, nor do I refuse to read something that contradicts the mainstream view.
Epithets will not win you any debates, nor will canceling people you don’t like. Either choose to ignore or engage, but don’t silence and berate.
27. October 2022 at 04:53
I look to the WHOLE site to see what is included as relevant subject matter, rather than blog post by blog post. It’s why I don’t post about programming, but do post about politics, philosophy, and economics.
More election fraud, in Florida:
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/florida-opens-criminal-probe-democrat-whistleblowers-evidence-ballot
BTW, Democrats cheating elections has been happening for many many years, the difference now is people are on to it, thanks in large part to the intelligence infrastructure set up 2016-2020, and the quantity of free flow of information bypassing the radical left captured msm and thereby revealing their definitions of words as deception, such as their definition of truth = false accusation without evidence and then repeating the lie across corporate media until people believe the lie is truth. Their other definitions like ‘our democracy’, and ‘woman’, are also upside down.
Once you see the patterns, you can’t unsee them. The radical (‘woke’) left uses the same vocabulary as everyone else, but, they use a different dictionary. Their dictionary is intentionally misleading by logical design.
When they say that ballot box watchers are ‘intimidating voters’, what they MEAN by those words is not what you know those words to mean, they define those words as ‘preventing Democrat cheating’.
When they say ‘MAGA is a threat to our Democracy’, they don’t mean what everyone else knows those words to mean, they mean free flow of information is preventing the encroachment of communism.
When they say ‘tolerance’, they don’t mean tolerance, they mean REPRESSIVE TOLERANCE, meaning they want you to tolerate them but they don’t tolerate difference of conviction.
When they say ‘diversity, inclusion, and equity’, they don’t mean what everyone else means, they mean exclude straight white males and imposition of communism to force equality of outcomes.
The list is as long as there are words.
When they say anything, they are using a different dictionary.
27. October 2022 at 04:56
Here is a good example of what I mean.
The MSM, and thus its trusting viewers, repeatedly called this a ‘conspiracy theory’.
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/americans-harvested-cellphone-data-covid-lockdowns/
Now data analytics proves it happened.
Remember, same vocabulary, different dictionary.
27. October 2022 at 04:59
In case it’s not immediately clear as to the implication here, and INTENT, this right here is an implementation of a CCP style ‘social credit scoring’ system.
The whole ‘ESG’ encroachment is a communist scam to turn people into ‘socialized man’.
27. October 2022 at 05:36
BEA announced 2.6% R-gDp for 3rd qtr. 2022. So, N-gDp is still too high. But EJ Antoni said: “All of GDP growth last quarter was due to this decline in imports and an increase in exports.”
“According to Dr. Milton Friedman, the main reason for the non-neutrality of money in the short-run is the variability in the time lag between money and the economy.”
27. October 2022 at 05:41
Test
27. October 2022 at 06:02
Looks like the ‘Just The News’ website, run by the Robert F. Kennedy Journalism Award winning, Managing Editors Enterprise Reporting Award winning, Society of Professional Journalists’ National Investigative Award winning, Gramling Journalism Achievement Award winning, and Raymond Clapper Memorial Award winning investigative journalist John Solomon, just got blacklisted from TheMoneyIllusion and can no longer be posted here.
Same with Trump’s Truth Social account, citizen journalist substack accounts, and a host of other sources.
But msm sources like alphabet clown controlled NYT, CNN, NBC, CBS, and ABC, can still be posted.
LOL
27. October 2022 at 06:12
If you are a Biden, you can collect $30 million from the Chinese government, work with the “spy chief of China”, broker a $9 billion oil & gas deal for Vladimir Putin, and the FBI will label your laptop “Russian disinformation” to conceal your family’s crimes.
If you are a Trump, the FBI will fabricate a Russian-collusion hoax to frame you, alter evidence in federal court to spy on you, and when none of that works — the FBI will raid your home.
27. October 2022 at 06:43
Since it seems only fake news enemy of the people ‘news’ sources can be posted here from now on, unfortunately that means instead of posting truths, we need to post the rants of INSANE PSYCHOPATHS:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2022/10/23/public-schools-parents-book-bans-lgbtq-studies-critical-race-theory/10562451002/
Leftists are doubling down and actually asserting they own your children. These people are sick!
27. October 2022 at 07:08
https://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/?p=260313
Ukraine is now a dictatorship.
According to NATO, Ukraine is a ‘Great Democracy’.
Reconcile.
27. October 2022 at 19:09
sara: i had no idea my simple ironic question had so many hidden meanings, imputations, baggage and allusions. Nevertheless, i stand by my empty words.
Btw, it does get better.
28. October 2022 at 04:14
https://www.help.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/report_an_analysis_of_the_origins_of_covid-19_102722.pdf
The Senate Minority Report on Covid Origins:
“Substantial evidence demonstrating that the COVID-19 pandemic was the result of a research-related incident has emerged…”
“A research-related incident is consistent with the early epidemiology showing rapid spread of the virus in Wuhan with the earliest calls for assistance being located in the near the WIV’s original campus in central Wuhan…”
“It also explains the low genetic diversity of the earliest known SARS-CoV-2 human infections in Wuhan, because the likely index case, would be an infected researcher, is the likely primary source of the virus in Wuhan.”
“A research-related incident also explains the failure to find an intermediate host as well as the failure to find any animal infections pre-dating human COVID-19 cases.”
THE FAILURE TO FIND ANY ANIMAL INFECTIONS PRE-DATING HUMAN COVID-19 CASES IS PRECISELY WHY THE ‘WET MARKET’ NARRATIVE IS A CONSPIRACY THEORY.
28. October 2022 at 05:18
“Buybacks” on the horizon? The FED’s Ph.Ds. don’t know a credit from a debit. Savings flowing through the nonbanks increases the supply of loan funds, but not the supply of money.
Lending by the banks is inflationary (increases the volume and turnover of new money). Lending by the nonbanks is noninflationary (results in the turnover of existing money, a velocity relationship). Where do you think velocity went with the deregulation of interest rates by the ABA.
The correct response to stagflation is the 1966 Interest Rate Adjustment Act. “while the aggregate of time and demand deposits continued to increase after July, the proportion of time to demand deposits diminished. Whereas time deposits were 105 percent of demand deposits in July, by the end of the year, the proportion had fallen to 98 percent. These were all desirable developments.”
M1 peaked @137.2 on 1/1/1966 and didn’t exceed that # until 9/1/1967. Deposit rates of banks decreased from a high range of 5 1/2 to a low range of 4 % (albeit not enough). A .75% interest rate differential was given to the nonbanks.
And during this period, the unemployment rate fell.
28. October 2022 at 05:26
If any of you are thinking that what I am writing here is too much to handle that your optimal Nash Equilibrium strategy is to not engage the content, I was always OK with that, I will point out that now that Elon owns Twitter, and now that Fakebook is crashing and will be in ongoing lawsuits, and now that the overwhelming majority of the country believes the msm is a threat to our democracy, I have a recommendation:
Do please begin to engage in uncomfortable self-reflection and do please at least begin to question your faith in the ‘old guard’ dialectic matrix that is getting exposed every day as filled with deception designed to keep you divided, weak and controllable.
If you let your pride get the better of you, if you trap yourself to the ‘current thing’ wave after wave of msm narrative designed to prevent exposure of corruption of those the narrative is designed to protect, if you place the old guard narrative as more trustworthy than your own mind, then you will be dividing yourself both internally and from reality as it is and you will be a slave to pedophiles and satan worshipers who openly LAUGH at you for trusting the msm narrative.
You still have time. Choose wisely.
28. October 2022 at 05:47
3rd qtr. N-gDp still too high @6.7%.
28. October 2022 at 06:29
While Dr. Philip George doesn’t explain it succinctly in his: The Riddle of Money Finally Solved, he does point out the problem.
“The error we are talking about is the error of regarding money as cash balances, and the demand for money as the demand for cash balances. The idea dates back to the early part of the 20th century in Cambridge, UK, and has appeared so obvious it has held unquestioning sway over all schools of economics.”
Never are the banks intermediaries in the savings->investment process. Banks don’t lend deposits. Deposits are the result of lending, ergo, all bank-held savings are frozen.
28. October 2022 at 06:53
Spencer: “Banks don’t lend deposits. Deposits are the result of lending.”
In fractional reserve banking is this MOSTLY true, but still not 100% because banks much have some quantity of money deposits in order to lend anything beyond that.
In 100% gold/silver backed banking, loans can only be sourced by prior deposits, which from an economic calculation perspective ensures a one to one correspondence between savings and investment which ensures the economy grows in accordance with the public’s consumption patterns over time.
28. October 2022 at 07:30
George:
From a system’s perspective, commercial banks (DFIs), as contrasted to financial intermediaries (non-banks, NBFIs): never loan out, and can’t loan out, existing deposits (saved or otherwise) including existing non-noninterest-bearing transaction deposits, or interest-bearing time “savings” deposits, or the owner’s equity, or any liability item.
When DFIs grant loans to, or purchase securities from, the non-bank public, they acquire title to earning assets by initially, the creation of an equal volume of new money (demand deposits) – somewhere in the payment’s system. I.e., commercial bank deposits are the result of lending, not the other way around. The lending capacity of the DFIs is dependent upon monetary policy, not the savings practices of the nonbank public. The DFIs could continue to lend/invest even if the public ceased to save altogether.
The non-bank public includes every institution (including shadow-banks), the U.S. Treasury, the U.S. Government, State, and other Governmental Jurisdictions, and every person, etc., except the commercial and the Reserve banks.
The differentiating question ostensibly illustrating the pseudo economic reasoning is: How is the growth of bank-held savings explained in the consolidated balance sheet of the Federal Reserve System. The answer is that it cannot be explained in the consolidated balance sheet because monetary savings, from the standpoint of the banking system, is a function of the velocity or rate of turnover of deposits, it is not a function of volume.
The growth of bank held savings thus results in no alteration in the “footings’ of the consolidated balance sheet. Interest-bearing deposits signify a transfer from non-interest-bearing deposits in the same institution, or a derivative deposit from a system’s perspective. I.e., the banks pay for what they already own.
Whether the public saves, dis-saves, or chooses to hold their savings in the commercial banks or to transfer them to a non-bank will not, per se, alter the total assets or liabilities of the commercial banks, nor alter the forms of these assets and liabilities.
28. October 2022 at 07:37
As Leonard Da Vinci explained:
“Before you make a general rule of this case, test it two or three times and observe whether the tests produce the same effects”.
The FDIC’s reduction in deposit insurance is prima facie evidence.
Historical FDIC’s insurance coverage deposit account limits (commercial banks):
• 1934 – $2,500
• 1935 – $5,000
• 1950 – $10,000
• 1966 – $15,000
• 1969 – $20,000
• 1974 – $40,000
• 1980 – $100,000 (started the decline in Vt)
• 2008 – $unlimited
• 2013 – $250,000 (caused taper tantrum and the rise in the real rate of interest)
28. October 2022 at 07:53
Japan’s “lost decade” is due to the impoundment and ensconcing of monetary savings in their banks. The BOJ has unlimited transaction deposit insurance, the Japanese save more, and keep more of their savings impounded in their banks.
“Japanese households have 52% of their money in currency & deposits, vs 35% for people in the Eurozone and 14% for the US.”
Reg Q ceilings were removed because the ABA convinced the world that banks were intermediaries.
Secular stagnation is directly due to the deceleration in velocity.
As Dr. Philip George puts it: “Changes in velocity have nothing to do with the speed at which money moves from hand to hand but are entirely the result of movements between demand deposits and other kinds of deposits.”
As predicted in 1963 in my Money and Banking book, Dr. Pritchard’s (Ph.D. Economics, Chicago 1933, M.S. statistics, Syracuse) economic syllogism posits:
#1) “Savings require prompt utilization if the circuit flow of funds is to be maintained and deflationary effects avoided”…
#2) ”The growth of commercial bank-held time “savings” deposits shrinks aggregate demand and therefore produces adverse effects on gDp”
#3) ”The stoppage in the flow of funds, which is an inexorable part of time-deposit banking, would tend to have a longer-term debilitating effect on demands, particularly the demands for capital goods.”
28. October 2022 at 08:03
–Danielle Dimartino Booth’s book: “Fed Up”, pg. 218
“Before the financial crisis, accounts were insured up to the first $100,000 by the FDIC. That limit kept enormous sums in the shadow banking system. After the crisis, the FDIC raised the insured account limit to $250,000.
But trillions of dollars still sate outside the traditional banking system. The “safe” money had no place to go expect money market mutual funds and government securities, leading to a shortage of T-Bills and a corresponding drop in yield.”
28. October 2022 at 08:06
See: Dr. Philip George – October 9, 2018:
“At the moment, one can safely say that the Fed’s plan for three more rate hikes in 2019 will not materialise. The US economy will go into a tailspin much before that.”
28. October 2022 at 08:28
In my application of this theory, the release of savings, was as I commented on 12-16-12, 01:50 PM #1 when the FDIC’s unlimited transaction deposit insurance was reduced to $250,000:
“We’re close to seeing the real power of OMOs. R-gDp is likely to accelerate earlier and faster than anyone now expects. The roc in M*Vt before any new stimulus is already above average. With low inflation (given some deficit resolution), Jan-Apr could be a zinger”
Zinger – a surprise, shock, or piece of electrifying news.
So we had a “taper tantrum” and a temporary rise in gDp:
“Fact Check: Was 2013’s ‘Taper Tantrum’ Actually So Tumultuous?”
https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/marketminder/fact-check-was-2013s-taper-tantrum-actually-so-tumultuou
I.e., we got lower inflation accompanying the “taper tantrum”. And we got lower unemployment, and higher real rates of interest.
You see, the economists are running the economy in reverse
28. October 2022 at 10:56
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-63331709
Prepare for the Synthetic Famines, or Prepare to Die.
These famines will not arrive by the hand of God, but by tyrants.
28. October 2022 at 11:27
George and Spencer have been quite busy typing.
28. October 2022 at 11:47
There are many specialized price indices which do not reflect any individual’s consumption basket.
GDP price deflator is falling. It will be a new trend.
Quarterly – Percent Change from Preceding Quarter
Q3 2022 (Adv) +4.1 %
Q2 2022 (3rd) +9.1 %
29. October 2022 at 05:15
“Spencer and George have been quite busy typing”
LOL, reminds me of this caught on video moment:
“I am Kamala Harris, my pronouns are she and her, and I am a woman sitting at the table wearing a blue suit”