FYI

I have no idea if this is reliable, but it’s 7 pm and time for jumping the gun:

screen-shot-2016-11-08-at-6-58-53-pm

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Can someone tell me why the Trump odds are still at 10%?  Is there a time lag in the betting odds website?  Trump’s clearly lost, hasn’t he?

I hear that Little Marco Rubio is dramatically outperforming Trump in Florida.  Hmm, do you think the GOP primary voters picked the wrong guy?

Trump now rising in the betting markets up to 15%.

State betting markets look better for Trump than the national market.  Starting to remind me of the Brexit vote.

US stock market crashing, another good sign for Trump.  If I was Hillary, I’ll be really worried.


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27 Responses to “FYI”

  1. Gravatar of John Hall John Hall
    8. November 2016 at 16:13

    Don’t get too excited. It’s a long night. Results are saying that he’s winning Indiana now. (And I want him to lose)

  2. Gravatar of Dan R Dan R
    8. November 2016 at 16:18

    The odds have hardly moved today. No new information of value yet. Last night Clinton was 81.4% on https://electionbettingodds.com/ Currently, she’s 81.0% for almost no informational change.

  3. Gravatar of John Hall John Hall
    8. November 2016 at 16:33

    BTW, I have been loving Andrew Gelman’s Bayesian forecasts of the election results.

    http://andrewgelman.com/2016/11/08/might-know-7pm/

  4. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    8. November 2016 at 16:44

    John, Yes, but it’s all about how he does relative to Romney. Still, I agree it’s too early.

  5. Gravatar of Ray Lopez Ray Lopez
    8. November 2016 at 16:44

    Trump wins in Kentucky and Indiana say all the networks. Virginia vote is close, a shocker to Clinton. E. Harding is ecstatic. Early votes tend to favor the incumbents, and the night is young. BrExit anybody?

    Trump wins. I’m calling it. And Sumner is wrong. Again.

  6. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    8. November 2016 at 17:03

    Ray, I think you are wrong, as usual. I’m calling it. It probably won’t even be all that close.

  7. Gravatar of Steve Steve
    8. November 2016 at 17:07

    Hillary up in Florida, but Panhandle not reporting.
    Trump ok in Virginia, but DC burbs not in.

    Networks like the boxing match narrative. H odds up to 90%, but takes real work to parse data.

    Probably over thx to Florida but still need to see NV, CO, MI, NC, NH

  8. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    8. November 2016 at 17:48

    “I hear that Little Marco Rubio is dramatically outperforming Trump in Florida. Hmm, do you think the GOP primary voters picked the wrong guy?”

    -Some random underfunded Democratic Senate candidate is NOT Hillary Rodham Clinton, Sumner! Look at the primary vote! Rubio was and is a dangerous warmonger, even worse than Clinton. Fortunately, Trump seems to be winning Florida by about two points -I’ve checked the numbers.

  9. Gravatar of Benjamin Cole Benjamin Cole
    8. November 2016 at 17:53

    The way to bet this election was to bet Hillary to win.

    The victory is very sour, but the salve is money.

    Still, Trump winning entire states, like Indiana. Maybe even Florida.

    In the case of a Trump victory, my bet will not only lose me money, but also result in a sour victory.

    A double loser!

  10. Gravatar of Steve Steve
    8. November 2016 at 17:56

    Harding– Michigan looking TIGHT

    Hillary up 4% with Detroit over-represented in sample???

  11. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    8. November 2016 at 18:12

    Steve, I agree, this is looking a lot like the Brexit surprise.

  12. Gravatar of Ray Lopez Ray Lopez
    8. November 2016 at 18:23

    ssumner at 8. November 2016 at 17:03: “Ray, I think you are wrong, as usual. I’m calling it [for Clinton to win]. It probably won’t even be all that close.”

    ssumner at 8. November 2016 at 18:12 [a little over an hour later]: “Steve, I agree, this is looking a lot like the Brexit surprise.”

    Ralph Waldo Emerson: “A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds…”

    You have to hand it to our host, Sumner’s not a little mind…

    What Trump’s win will show, besides Sumner is always wrong, is that US democracy can survive even a Trump presidency.

  13. Gravatar of Christian List Christian List
    8. November 2016 at 18:25

    Wow Trump just jumped to 48% at Election Betting Odds.

    We seem to be in the tree in which Florida is won and Pennsylvannia is lost by Trump.

    So he needs Ohio, NC and Virginia. All three are doable, very close but doable. I

    So he let’s say these three all really happen then he needs only one more state: Nevada or Colorado or Iowa or NH.

    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/clinton-trump-paths-to-win-election.html

    What a race!

  14. Gravatar of Max Max
    8. November 2016 at 18:37

    NYT live forecast has Trump @ 54%

  15. Gravatar of Benjamin Cole Benjamin Cole
    8. November 2016 at 18:49

    Trump winning Florida?

    Am I a double loser tonight?

  16. Gravatar of Max Max
    8. November 2016 at 18:59

    NYT Trump @ 63%

    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.

  17. Gravatar of Max Max
    8. November 2016 at 19:09

    NYT Trump @ 73%

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ysf5o5xOGYE

  18. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    8. November 2016 at 19:12

    Yes, I think Trump’s got it now, I was wrong again.

  19. Gravatar of Ray Lopez Ray Lopez
    8. November 2016 at 19:13

    Lies, damn lies, and sampling error. I told you since only 10% of people sampled actually respond to presidential polls (said a stats expert at Vox.com), the redneck vote would be under-counted. I wuz write.

  20. Gravatar of Benjamin Cole Benjamin Cole
    8. November 2016 at 19:18

    BTW, of great interest to election-watchers:

    There was one poll that consistently showed Trump winning, run by the Los Angeles Times and University of Southern California.

    http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20161108-story.html

    This is story Sumner would enjoy reading, about how pollsters have to “skew” results of any poll, to make it adhere to real-world demographics. In other words, if you polled only white males, you would have to adjust the poll to reflect national demographics.

    The LA Times-USC “weighted” poll results differently.

    Remember, orthodoxy is often the enemy of reality.

  21. Gravatar of Ray Lopez Ray Lopez
    8. November 2016 at 19:18

    ssumner at 19:12 – “Yes, I think Trump’s got it now, I was wrong again.” – no, I disagree. I think Clinton might take it if WI and MI (swing states) go to Clinton as MN seems to be going. It will be a tight race. (Well, I love to disagree with our host, so I had to say that). In any event, what a surprise this election has been!

  22. Gravatar of Benjamin Cole Benjamin Cole
    8. November 2016 at 19:20

    This makes Truman’s “upset” look trivial.

    Also, Hillary will have to be bound and gagged. First Obama, and then Trump—Trump!—take the White House from her….

  23. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    8. November 2016 at 19:20

    I was cheating, since I was using the vote from Hart’s Location, New Hampshire, as a guide, but I predicted a narrow Clinton win with a 1-point Trump loss of Nevada. See my blog.

    Tell me when Nevada gives its results.

  24. Gravatar of Market Fiscalist Market Fiscalist
    8. November 2016 at 19:28

    is this really happening ? What a nightmare. Tomorrow will be a good day to get back into the stock market because there will surely be an overreaction – but that’s small consolation.

  25. Gravatar of Max Max
    8. November 2016 at 19:35

    NYT Trump @ 87%

    “There’s a lot of ruin in a nation.” – Adam Smith

  26. Gravatar of Max Max
    8. November 2016 at 19:44

    NYT Trump 92%

    What will The Onion headline be? The 9/11 one seems appropriate somehow.

  27. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    9. November 2016 at 07:54

    Ray, I had to laugh when you cited Indiana and Kentucky as bell-weather states. Even a broken clock . . .

    In my defense, even Trump’s own pollsters had though he lost, earlier in the evening.

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