cHiNa iS tHe reAL thReAt
What will Putin’s puppy say?
Here we arrive at a very awkward truth, however: The last thing Trump wants to do is praise ordinary citizens mobilizing against an illiberal despot about a rigged election.
Even on Trump’s best days, he likes autocrats and dislikes mass protests. He praised Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin before he was elected. He also praised China’s leadership for cracking down in Tiananmen Square in 1989. Since he was elected president, Trump has repeatedly demonstrated fawning admiration for Putin. According to former national security adviser John Bolton and others, Trump told Chinese President Xi Jinping that he would not back protesters in Hong Kong and approved of Xi’s plan for Uighur internment camps in western China.
To be fair, the Trump administration has imposed sanctions on China and Russia for human rights abuses in the past few years. To be equally fair, however, not even the most hardcore #MAGA proponent would describe Trump as a fan of social mobilization.
Yes, there might be a few sanctions, but will Trump speak out?
PS. And yet, I think it quite plausible that Trump will be re-elected. (Ignore the election polls, look at betting markets.) After all, by a 50% to 49% margin, Americans believe that Covid-19 is at least somewhat under control. LOL, Trump is so lucky that 50% of Americans aren’t paying attention:
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17. August 2020 at 09:45
Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and Philippines are American allies as well economically important plus Guam is in the area. Belarus isn’t plus is part of the former USSR. Let’s quit advocating poking the only country in the world which ACTUALLY poses an existential threat to America.
Regional powers interfere in their lesser neighbors, same as the the US in Venezuela, Mexico, etc. Do you really want to pretend the US wouldn’t pledge it’s support of the Canadian government if there was a Chinese sponsored coup / rebellion taking place like the Western sponsored one in Belarus?
Russia can end the world tomorrow on a whim, you are old enough to remember that.
17. August 2020 at 10:18
The gap has closed some, but Biden still has a big lead in the betting markets.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
17. August 2020 at 13:50
Peter, You said:
“Russia can end the world tomorrow on a whim, you are old enough to remember that.”
Exactly. That’s what I’ve been saying–Russia is the real threat.
Michael, I consider that a very small lead.
17. August 2020 at 15:48
Betting markets factor in cheating, polls don’t. That’s the difference.
17. August 2020 at 18:27
Biden is a lot more likely to win the popular vote than he is to win the election.
That said, the two leading models (538 and the Economist) put Biden at 72% and 89% respectively.
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/08/14/new-fivethirtyeight-com-election-forecast/
17. August 2020 at 23:57
“That’s what I’ve been saying–Russia is the real threat.”
Don’t worry. IF Biden wins we are in for a period of ‘Democratic muscular liberalism’.
https://twitter.com/WashPostPR/status/1294036263511760896?s=20
Maximization, subject to constraint?
“By the time you got to the first Bush administration, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, they came out with a national defense policy and strategic policy. What they basically said is that we’re going to have wars against what they called much weaker enemies and these have to be carried out quickly and decisively or else there will be embarrassment—a way of saying that popular reaction is going to set in. And that’s the way it’s been. It’s not pretty, but it’s some kind of constraint.”
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2018/03/noam-chomsky-populist-groundswell-u-s-elections-future-humanity.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29
18. August 2020 at 16:41
Garrett, I’d put Biden at 50% for the election and 89% for the popular vote. It’s hard to see how Trump can win the popular vote, but that won’t be much consolation to the Dems if he wins.
18. August 2020 at 19:55
Trump definitely has the ammo to win at this point. On the covid side, the FDA and our medical/academic institutions are faaar more to blame. There’s still no recommended treatment for patients with Covid symptoms or good studies done on them despite a raft of evidence of potential benefits from several different treatments. I’ve also found no significant follow-on studies on recovered patients. It’s a joke. Also, the The Intercept, Rising, Secular Talk, Rolling Stone, literally all the non-MSN leftist outlets despise Biden and the Democratic establishment. No one is excited about Biden.
On the plus side, Trump just recently attacked Fox News, suggesting there is a part of him that doesn’t care to win at this point.
18. August 2020 at 21:35
Scott,
What makes you more pessimistic about Biden winning than the betting markets?
19. August 2020 at 01:13
Just watched Cardi B ask Biden about Medicare For All four times with no response. One of the few times Biden climbed out of his basement, he stepped to a podium with the slogan “Build Back Better” on it. That was literally the slogan. Something just doesn’t make sense about this campaign.
In other news, California is proposing a wealth tax that applies to anyone who has lived in the state in the last 10 years, at at time when there’s already significant flight out of Hollywood and SF. Doesn’t make sense. This would kill startups in CA. We are absolutely careening towards full-on contractionary economics and permanent zero-sum politics.
21. August 2020 at 09:22
@Cartesian
“No one is excited about Biden.”
That is precisely why I’m voting for him. I’m done with entertainers and “excitement” in politics. I want it to be as boring as possible. What’s the word for “rule by entertainers?” Ludioarchy? Because that’s what we have.
21. August 2020 at 09:26
@Cartesian,
What are some of these treatments for COVID-19 you mention?