Bad intentions are not enough

Do we judge a president on what they try to do, or the results? In 2019, Trumpistas sidestepped the bad intentions with claims that “results are all that matters”. Today it’s just the opposite. We are told that results don’t matter at all; they are beyond the control of the president. America’s massive job loss, skyrocketing crime, falling life expectancy and loss of global prestige under Trump’s watch don’t matter—we judge Trump on what he was trying to do. In this post, I’ll judge him both ways.

Successes:

Tax simplification and reduced corporate tax rates. I’m not an expert on deregulation, but my sense is that there was beneficial deregulation in areas such as education and labor markets.

Operation Warp Speed

Got a few small countries to recognize Israel.

Neutral:

In other areas such as the environment and banking, the utility of deregulation is less clear. It may have helped in some cases for the usual reason that free market policies are generally best, and it may have made things worse in some cases due to externalities and moral hazard.

I view the Supreme Court picks as being no better or worse than Merrick Garland.

Illegal immigration increased during 2017-19, but that might be viewed as a success if you think illegal immigration is good.

Like Clinton and Obama, no major wars but bombed some countries now and then.

Replaced Yellen with Powell.

Failures:

Murder rate soared.

Millions of jobs lost.

Falling life expectancy.

Trade deficit got larger.

Border wall project botched.

Obamacare still intact.

Reckless fiscal policy even prior to Covid.

No leadership on Covid, frequently mocked those who worse masks and discouraged testing. Vaccine rollout botched.

Promoted “cancel culture”, encouraging NFL to fire protesting players. Advocated expanding the ability of politicians to launch libel suits again the media. Opposed Section 230 protections.

Praised despots who engaged in human rights violation, Most notably, encouraged Xi Jinping to put Uighurs into concentration camps.

Advocated torture. (Policy was not carried out, which gets at the intentions/results issue. How do we judge?)

Tried to abolish American democracy by having a mob pressure Congress to overturn 2020 election.

Repealed Cadillac tax on health insurance, an underrated policy failure. By itself, this one act more than offset the gains from all his deregulation combined. Perhaps Trump’s worst decision from a purely “utilitarian” perspective.

Turned to NIMBYism in final year in office.

Massive election year boost in wasteful farm subsidies.

Restricted H1-b visas. Fewer refugees accepted.

Semi-racist Muslim travel ban.

Told brown-skinned Congresswomen born in America to go back to their own country.

Ended Iran deal, causing Iran to restart nuclear program.

Tightened sanctions on Cuba, a policy that has failed for 60 years in a row.

Launched trade war with China that failed on all counts (economic and political.)

Replaced NAFTA with a worse NAFTA.

Engaged in lots of white nationalist rhetoric.

Transformed the Republican Party into a personality cult.

Demanded that government officials be personally loyal to him, even if it meant breaking the law.

Frequently had his officials direct government business to his properties.

Pressured Ukraine to damage his political opponent.

Frequently praised (and pardoned) US war criminals, excusing their behavior.

Engaged in scorched-earth policy after losing election, having his aides enact a raft of last minute policy changes solely aimed at sabotaging the next administration.

Engaged in almost non-stop lying, far beyond the norm in American politics.

Pardoned many criminals to avoid having them testify against him.

Ended his term with the lowest average approval rating in modern polling history. First president to be impeached twice. First president to have someone in his own party vote to convict him (and likely multiple people in the second trial.)

These are just off the top of my head. Who can remember everything that happened over 4 years?

I’m trying to be impartial here, so I won’t tip my hand as to any sort of overall appraisal. I’ll leave that decision to my readers.

What do you think?


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99 Responses to “Bad intentions are not enough”

  1. Gravatar of Anon Anon
    20. January 2021 at 09:55

    “Semi Racist Muslim Ban”
    Uh, what’s wrong with a Muslim Ban?

    It is pretty clear that Muslims have bad socioeconomics in the United States, so letting them in seems like a pretty clear mistake.

    Unless you are one of those economists who think importing people who do worse than you on average is somehow going to make you richer.

    As everyone knows that AA migration into Detroit ended up taking that once richest US city to completely new heights!

  2. Gravatar of aram aram
    20. January 2021 at 10:07

    OWS was handled well as far as I can tell but Trump’s role was minor.

    https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/11/operation-warp-speed-a-timeline/

    I would also give him positive marks for promoting the vaccines.

    Another positive of the Trump years: He has shifted public opinion to be more pro-immigration.

  3. Gravatar of steve steve
    20. January 2021 at 10:24

    Murder rates soared? I wouldn’t blame any President for that. Perhaps you should provide more detail of murder rates by state. I would bet that murder rates soared in liberal sates.

  4. Gravatar of Anonymous Anonymous
    20. January 2021 at 10:30

    Could you go into why you view Yellen being replaced by Powell as Neutral? My understanding (which maybe totally wrong) was that Yellen was at overly concerned with inflation when it made little sense and that Powell has been great by shifting towards an emphasis on average inflation and potentially one day NGDP targeting.

  5. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    20. January 2021 at 10:30

    Everyone, This post mostly steers clear of the question of whether Trump deserve credit or blame. If I report something that happened, I’m just reporting something that happened.

    I assumed the “all that matters is results” crowd would want to know.

  6. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    20. January 2021 at 10:33

    Anonymous, Actually, Powell was a bit more hawkish than Yellen back when they were both at the Fed. Don’t assume that any change in rhetoric or policy reflects a change in Fed chair.

    As an analogy, policy became more hawkish under Bernanke, but Greenspan thought Bernanke was a bit too dovish.

  7. Gravatar of ChacoKevy ChacoKevy
    20. January 2021 at 10:48

    @aram – I’m mostly where you’re at on the vaccine development side, but would count OWS as mostly failed since vaccine distribution was part of the aim.
    Still, I don’t ding Trump for it as I imagine the way it played out would have been largely the same under a Clinton admin.

  8. Gravatar of Brian Brian
    20. January 2021 at 10:49

    The SolarWinds hack sounds terrible but the full extent of the problem is not publicly known at this point in time.

  9. Gravatar of Spencer B. Hall Spencer B. Hall
    20. January 2021 at 11:26

    re: “I would bet that murder rates soared in liberal states”

    Murder rates are an economic math equation. It wasn’t liberal vs. conservative states that mattered, it was whether income inequality was increasing or not in those states.

  10. Gravatar of Dale Doback Dale Doback
    20. January 2021 at 11:33

    You forgot child separation and locking kids in cages. Also trying to financially profit off of the office by not divesting in a blind trust, not disclosing financial conflicts of interest in a tax return, and squeezing the secret service and foreign diplomats to run up bills at his properties.

  11. Gravatar of Spencer B. Hall Spencer B. Hall
    20. January 2021 at 11:37

    re: “In other areas such as…*banking*, the utility of deregulation is less clear.

    It’s cut and dry. The ABA is the most powerful economic oligarch in our economy. Besides adding to inflation, it is the most destructive force capitalism faces. The banks should revert back to the old fashioned practice of storing their liquidity instead of trying to buy their liquidity through open market devices.

  12. Gravatar of Anonymous Anonymous
    20. January 2021 at 11:49

    Fascinating, thank you!

  13. Gravatar of aram aram
    20. January 2021 at 12:06

    @ChacoKevy, good point but doesn’t Congress deserve more of the blame here? They are the ones who declined to send the money the states wanted. (Although if Trump said he supported such a bill the Senate would have passed it.) I also do blame the states who may be budget-constrained but could have at least started thinking through logistics earlier. Certainly in MA our DPH is really incompetent.

  14. Gravatar of Anonymous Anonymous
    20. January 2021 at 12:29

    “Murder rates are an economic math equation. It wasn’t liberal vs. conservative states that mattered, it was whether income inequality was increasing or not in those states.”

    What a joke! Murder rates suddenly spiked by the most in American history in May because of inequality? Did inequality suddenly increase 40% in that month?

    https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/01/u-s-a-fact-of-the-day-7.html

  15. Gravatar of Spencer B. Hall Spencer B. Hall
    20. January 2021 at 12:34

    re: “The end justifies the means” aka, N-gDp Level Targeting

    Houston. We have a problem.

    Marcus Nunes and Benjamin Cole’s “With Market Monetarism – a Roadmap to Economic Prosperity”. Re: “The FED lost its focus on nominal spending, and during 2008-2009 didn’t realize the danger of a sharp decline in nominal GDP until it was too late.”

    People forgot that we had a trade deficit and oil problem. But that’s the skinny of it.

    As Luca Pacioli, a Renaissance man, “The Father of Accounting and Bookkeeping” famously quipped: “debits on the left and credits on the right, don’t go to sleep with an imbalance”.

    This is the same monetary policy blunder that caused Paul Volcker to create 2 back-to-back recessions. It is the very reason N-gDp level targeting is “money illusion”. It causes FOMC schizophrenia: Do I stop because inflation is increasing? Or do I go because R-gDp is falling?).

    If the Fed pursues a rather restrictive monetary policy, e.g., QT, interest rates tend to rise. This places a damper on the creation of new money but, paradoxically drives existing money (savings) out of circulation into frozen deposits (un-used and un-spent). In a twinkling, the economy begins to suffer. The Fed responds by increasing stagflation.

    When you understand why Dr. Philip George entitled his article “The Riddle of Money Finally Solved”, you will eventually get religion.

    -Michel de Nostredame

  16. Gravatar of Will Will
    20. January 2021 at 12:35

    Spencer B. Hall, there is no established causal link between income inequality and murder rates. There are some correlations, but it is obvious to see how backwards causality would run and also easy to see how both could be caused by something else entirely. Using income inequality is also a terrible metric when wealth inequality would make far more sense.

    Be less ideological.

  17. Gravatar of David S David S
    20. January 2021 at 13:01

    Just noticed the link on Marginal Revolution to the container ship traffic jam in California. Partly Trump’s fault for not leading on Covid.

    Or, it’s the start of the Biden Recession.

  18. Gravatar of Becky Hargrove Becky Hargrove
    20. January 2021 at 13:20

    Since spring I worried about murder rate increases, due to the pressure cooker circumstance of family members and others stuck under the same roof for days and months on end.

  19. Gravatar of TAFKAA TAFKAA
    20. January 2021 at 14:09

    Ok, that was again a different Anonymous. Going to stop posting under that name once and for all. – Anonymous.

  20. Gravatar of Spencer B. Hall Spencer B. Hall
    20. January 2021 at 14:13

    re: “there is no established causal link between income inequality and murder rates”

    It’s easy to predict the murder rates in my city. Rent’s increased by 74 percent since 2011 (2019 figures). Each year long-term or short-term money flows decline, the murder rates go up. We set records in 2020. I don’t find anything causal about that.

  21. Gravatar of Todd Ramsey Todd Ramsey
    20. January 2021 at 14:16

    I hate narcissists, I hate people who don’t pay their debts, I hate liars. I hate Trump. That said, I think you were unfair in your post.

    You said,
    “Tax simplification and reduced corporate tax rates. I’m not an expert on deregulation, but my sense is that there was beneficial deregulation in areas such as education and labor markets.” Isn’t this four things? In the failures list, for emphasis you created a new paragraph for every bad thing. Not a balanced presentation.

    More successes:
    2017 Tax Reform created a cap on State and Local Tax Deductions, which disproportionately benefit the rich.

    You of all people should list Powell as a success. In March, he brought to life what you have been preaching for twelve years. And with great positive effect.

    It’s inconsistent for you to list increase in the trade deficit as a negative, given all the times you have written how unimportant the trade deficit is.

    Virtually stopped the growth of Federal regulation, beyond education and labor markets.

    Scott, I’m your biggest fan! And I think you are at your best when you fairly present the facts and let them speak for themselves. Trump is a bad man. You don’t need to embellish anything to prove your point.

  22. Gravatar of Spencer B. Hall Spencer B. Hall
    20. January 2021 at 14:20

    re: ““A demand rule is potentially superior to a money-supply rule because it accommodates unexpected changes in the demand for money”.

    Contrary to what Bankrupt-u-Bernanke (“Dr. Data”) said in his book, “The Courage to Act”: “Unfortunately, beyond a quarter or two, the course of the economy is extremely hard to forecast”.

    Economic prognostications within one year’s period of time are patently infallible (Bernanke couldn’t see one quarter past July 2008). BuB thinks that money is neutral, and not robust. BuB also thought that the credit crunch was a capital crunch.

    How could money be neutral if housing prices continued to fall?

  23. Gravatar of Sean Sean
    20. January 2021 at 14:37

    Positive – Economic covid responde. Far more aggressive policy response than Obama/Biden cooked up in 2009. That trumps just about anything on your lists. And the economic fix in 2009 was a lot simpler of just easier monetary policy.

  24. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    20. January 2021 at 14:45

    Anon, You said:

    “It is pretty clear that Muslims have bad socioeconomics in the United States, so letting them in seems like a pretty clear mistake.”

    Wrong:

    “About three-in-ten U.S. Muslims (31%) have college or postgraduate degrees, equivalent to the share among U.S. adults as a whole (31%). Foreign-born Muslims are more likely to have at least a college degree (38%) than are Muslims born in the U.S. (21%), perhaps reflecting immigration policies that give preference to highly educated immigrants.

    https://www.pewforum.org/2017/07/26/demographic-portrait-of-muslim-americans/

    And many immigrants from Muslim countries are Christian.

    Dale, Yes, there is plenty that I forgot. I should have kept a sort of diary.

    David, I was in Laguna Beach on Sunday, and you could see all those ships in the distance.

    Todd, See my Yellen/Powell comment above. Regarding the list, yes I should have had separate paragraphs. But keep in mind that these items vary dramatically in importance, so any procedure can be criticized. Do you want to give equal weight to trying it abolish democracy and approving charter schools?

    I said I’m not an expert on regulation, but I’m not convinced that making coal burning easier is a net plus. And there were lots of major increases in regulations in areas like international trade, international investment, and hiring of foreigners. The Cadillac tax repeal alone more that offset all the gains from dereg.

    Agree on the SALT reform; I included that under tax simplification–as most people now don’t have to itemize. But you could treat that as a separate achievement.

    Yes, the disclaimer I applied to illegal immigration should have also applied to trade deficits. One should make separate lists for “promises Trump failed to deliver on”, and “bad things Trump did.”

  25. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    20. January 2021 at 14:50

    Sean, Are you looking at intentions or results? Because either way, Trump’s one of the worst presidents in history.

    He actually tried to make Covid much worse. Read that again. It’s not that he didn’t try hard to stop it, he tried to make it much worse. He discouraged people from wearing masks. He discouraged testing. He discouraged social distancing.

    Or shall we look at results? Millions of jobs lost, soaring crime, falling life expectancy.

    Tell me what criterion you prefer, intentions or results?

    Which is it?

  26. Gravatar of Christian List Christian List
    20. January 2021 at 15:22

    Scott,

    certainly not a bad list and relatively fair. Of course, whether a measure is positive or negative depends very much on the personal political and ideological views of the individual. I would rank a few measures differently:

    1) Ended Iran deal

    This is an extremely big plus. Obama’s Iran deal made no sense at all and its effects were fatal.

    2) Got a few small countries to recognize Israel.

    You’re downplaying the important political development here. In fact, Trump was able to help ensure that Israel and Saudi Arabia entered into a quasi-alliance against Iran, not officially, but de facto.

    The whole Arab world has moved towards Israel, they no longer want to destroy Israel, they want to act together against Iran, which is the real aggressor in the region.

    3) Tightened sanctions on Cuba, a policy that has failed for 60 years in a row.

    I don’t see this as a sure mistake. Failure is simply a matter of definition. He also sanctioned Venezuela. There are actually good reasons for this. And bad ones.

    4) Murder rates

    The NYT says violent crime has fallen. Crime statistics are tricky. Everyone does what they want with them.

    5) Obamacare

    I see it as a net positive that he couldn’t take it back. The GOP had no thought-out alternative.

    6) Supreme Court picks

    I see that as a net positive. GOP candidates seem to be less ideological than Democratic candidates. They also seem more likely to deviate from party ideology from time to time.

    You also forgot some positive points, I am taking some cues from the NYT here:

    7) Trump signed the First Step Act, a criminal justice bill that enacted reforms that make the US justice system fairer and help former inmates successfully return to society. (according to the NYT).

    8) Healthcare deregulation

    Trump signed an executive order this year that forces all health care providers to disclose the cost of their services.

    Trump signed a series of executive orders aimed at making it easier for states to import cheaper drugs from Canada.

    Trump signed an order allowing small businesses to group together when buying insurance to get a better price.

    Trump signed a law ending the gag orders on Pharmacists that prevented them from sharing money-saving information.
    President

    Under Trump, the FDA approved more affordable generic drugs than ever before in history.

    Trump signed a Right-To-Try legislation allowing terminally ill patients to try experimental treatment that wasn’t allowed before.

    9) Trump appointed 5 openly gay ambassadors.

    10) Under Trump ISIS was basically ended and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed. Trump also killed Qasem Soleimani. Killing Soleimani was pretty cool. 10 out of 10 points.

    11) Trump finalized a trade agreement with South Korea, which is pretty much free trade. He probably didn’t realize that.

    12) Trump supported a new “Ready to Work Initiative” to help connect employers directly with former prisoners.

    13) Trump’s legislation included new Opportunity Zone Incentives to promote investment in communities across the country.

    14) Trump signed an executive order directing all agencies to repeal at least two existing regulations for each new regulation issued in the 2017 fiscal year and thereafter.

    Oh, and Brookings has a Deregulation Tracker about the Trump era.

    15) Some NATO allies increased their defense spending because of his pressure campaign. This could be viewed as a net plus.

    And a lot of your negative points is just talking not really legislation. Sure talking might be important, but this crazy guy was babbling so much, saying so much and yet nothing, I would go more with legislation, etc.

    The biggest negative point for me: his reaction to Covid-19 was super bad. Todd-like. He gambled away his re-election here. At least he bought enough vaccines. But otherwise, his response to Covid-19 was really awful. No, thank you.

  27. Gravatar of Richard A. Richard A.
    20. January 2021 at 15:59

    You forgot to mention that Trump crippled the WTO. It is in Biden’s power to uncripple the WTO–but will he?
    The dramatic increase in ag subsidies under Trump are most certainly WTO illegal.

    Trump also hit solar panels and solar cells with hefty tariffs–will Biden remove these tariffs?

  28. Gravatar of Mark Barbieri Mark Barbieri
    20. January 2021 at 16:07

    I think you undercounted the trade mistakes. It wasn’t just China and NAFTA. We had the steel and aluminum import fiasco. The washing machine debacle. The increase in taxes on imported softwood lumber.

    On the plus side, he ended Net Neutrality. I find it ironic that its supporters are the ones most in favor of deplatforming him.

    His administration also helped restore some sanity to the handling of sexual assault allegations on college campuses.

  29. Gravatar of Postkey Postkey
    20. January 2021 at 16:37

    “Iran, which is the real aggressor in the region.”

    Quite right.

    Iran bombed and invaded Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Libya.

  30. Gravatar of Christian List Christian List
    20. January 2021 at 16:50

    Tell me what criterion you prefer, intentions or results?

    Scott,

    I’m thinking here of the meme with the girl that you like to post at this point: “Why not both?” If almost any jurist can evaluate both (together), then so can we.

    Postkey,

    even if you’re an idiot and a reply to you won’t do any good; just for documentation purposes: The US is at least trying to establish democratic regimes. Sometimes they are successful, sometimes they are not. Intention matters. Iran intervenes in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen too, but always with the (quite successful) intention to establish pro-fascist, pro-theocratic dictatorships. A small difference, which of course means nothing to spoiled American brats who know nothing else but a pretty free pretty capitalist democracy. I realize that.

  31. Gravatar of Richard A. Richard A.
    20. January 2021 at 17:00

    It looks like the Trump administration has made some sensible last minute changes in H-1b. Instead of relying on the luck of the draw to hand out these visas, they will be handed out to the better paid and better educated.

    https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/international/us-to-modify-h1b-visa-selection-process-to-give-priority-to-wages-skill-level

  32. Gravatar of xu xu
    20. January 2021 at 17:49

    “The US is at least trying to establish democratic regimes.”

    Christian List = Mega Moron.

    Seriously? WTF!

    This is precisely what is wrong with these totalitarian scum bag apparatchiks.

    Where in the constitution does it give you the right to try and “install” any type of regime, anywhere, other than in YOUR country. They are sovereign nations, with different beliefs, and different goals. And many of those people don’t want your pathetic self righteousness or the pretense of “human rights” to destroy their lives. They don’t need YOU to decide what is best for them. No taxpayer signed up for your covert, and overt, nation building agenda.

    Keep your disgusting, filthy, and nasty apparatchik hands off the lever of power, you cock-sucking WEF agenda propagating, one world govt, MOFO.

    Thank you! 🙂

  33. Gravatar of steve steve
    20. January 2021 at 18:22

    Anon is correct. Nothing wrong with a muslim ban. Islam isn’t about allah or prayer or spirituality. Islam is about acquiring physical, earthly territory and installing a totalitarian government over the earth that provides a cadre of elites masquerading as some sort of clergy with massive decadent wealth and as much twisted perverted sex as they want, including homosexual and heterosexual pedohilia and incest. They can’t be reasoned with.They can’t be dialogued with. There is no such thing as radical islam just like there is no such thing as radical nazism. Islam is the one “religion” (and it is really a political system not a religion) that expressly condones and encourages consanguineous marriage and breeding.The Koran explicitly ratifies incest (specifically Sura 4 verse 23). Creeps.

  34. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    20. January 2021 at 18:40

    Christian, You continually talk about Saudi Arabia like they are one of the good guys, at the same time that you criticize China on human rights. All I can do is shake my head. Do you have any idea what they are doing in Yemen? How about the human rights situation within Saudi Arabia?

    Most of your list looks like it’s pulled off a list put together by Trump supporters. If you don’t know what you are talking about, it’s best to remain silent. For instance, he didn’t negotiate a free trade agreement with South Korea, he made an existing free trade agreements slightly worse.

    And the murder rate in the US soared last year; there no serious debate about that issue. If you don’t follow what’s going on, it’s best to keep quiet.

    You said:

    “Trump also killed Qasem Soleimani.”

    LOL. Trump’s a coward, he wouldn’t have the nerve to kill anyone. And those assassinations accomplish nothing.

    You said:

    “Trump appointed 5 openly gay ambassadors.”

    Now you are getting desperate.

    Mark, Good point.

    Richard, I agree on the WTO. I don’t agree that the H1-b changes were an improvement.

  35. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    20. January 2021 at 18:45

    Steve, I’m surprised that you are critical of Nazism, given that you share their hateful bigotry.

    As far as the Koran, you should read the Christian Bible sometime, you might be surprised at what you find.

  36. Gravatar of Sean Sean
    20. January 2021 at 19:07

    The economy by results is pretty good unless you completely discount having to shut down the economy by choice. Consumer spending is fine. Consumer and corporate savings are the best in my lifetime.

    Even if you compare this economy to covid not happening it’s still an economy in good shape. Trump deserves praise for that. Mnuchin got money money hot fast,

    Also it’s just silly to compare trump while ignoring the Democrats launching an insurgency in one major cities and ignore the worst pandemic in 80 years.

    It’s understandable the gap between people like me and you. Those of us who lived in urban environments during the summer went hard right. The suburbs went hard against trump.

  37. Gravatar of Gwen Gwen
    20. January 2021 at 19:29

    Sunk the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

  38. Gravatar of sarah sarah
    20. January 2021 at 19:59

    Well, I don’t have time to correct all of these false storylines. Too many lies in one article.

    But I will say this about crime: crime rates always rise when thug communists, who in this case are mostly black, threaten private property.

    Sadly, Sumner supports and advocates for these communists thugs.

    Right out of the Stalin playbook.

  39. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    20. January 2021 at 22:16

    Sean , You said:

    “The economy by results is pretty good”

    Is this a joke? How many jobs were created under Trump? How about each of the last 10 presidents?

    Your argument seems to be that a shitty economy is OK as long as the government shovels trillions of dollars out into people’s pockets and calls it “saving”.

    Gwen, Good point.

    Sarah, But Trump promised to solve all our problems. Why did he let the commies stop him from cracking down on violent crime? Is he that weak?

  40. Gravatar of Carl Carl
    20. January 2021 at 23:00

    Scott:
    I think you need to add “Blew a hole in the budget” to the failures.

  41. Gravatar of Mark Z Mark Z
    21. January 2021 at 00:05

    “I’m trying to be impartial here”
    As the kids say, lol.

  42. Gravatar of Postkey Postkey
    21. January 2021 at 01:24

    “The US is at least trying to establish democratic regimes.”

    Just like in the US?

    For documentation purposes:

    “Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest Groups, and Average Citizens
    Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page
    Each of four theoretical traditions in the study of American politics—which can be characterized as theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy, Economic-Elite Domination, and two types of interest-group pluralism, Majoritarian Pluralism and Biased Pluralism—offers different predictions about which sets of actors have how much influence over public policy: average citizens; economic elites; and organized interest groups, mass-based or business-oriented. A great deal of empirical research speaks to the policy influence of one or another set of actors, but until recently it has not been possible to test these contrasting theoretical predictions against each other within a single statistical model. We report on an effort to do so, using a unique data set that includes measures of the key variables for 1,779 policy issues. Multivariate analysis indicates that economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence. The results provide substantial support for theories of Economic-Elite Domination and for theories of Biased Pluralism, but not for theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy or Majoritarian Pluralism. “
    https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/mgilens/files/gilens_and_page_2014_-testing_theories_of_american_politics.doc.pdf

  43. Gravatar of steve steve
    21. January 2021 at 03:03

    I’ve read the bible sumner. There are horrible things in it. However, it prohibits incest because of what inbreeding does genetically. In fact, all human cultures display strict prohibitions against inbreeding and consanguineous marriage. Incest is a universal taboo, Except in the muslim culture where marriage and breeding between first cousins has existed since day one. Mohammed himself married Zaynab, who was his father’s sister’s daughter. Mohammed and Zaynab were direct first cousins. As a reult the chance of an undesirable recessive trait expressing itself in their offspring soars. Now, understanding that single-generational risk, understand that Muslims have been marrying their first cousins, or closer, over and over again for 1,400 years. Ergo, the Muslim population is the only population on earth that is mentally and physically devolving.

  44. Gravatar of Student Student
    21. January 2021 at 06:41

    Steve, you are speaking like a bigot, judging people by their group affiliation across the board. Not only that, but you are doing so ignorantly. The Bible never prohibited cousin marriage. And reading Genesis we can see that it might have been that preferred option, certainly quite common in the ancient days. Think Abraham and Sarah (some say they were half siblings actually, but cousins is more likely), issac, Rebekah, Jacob, Leah, Rachel, Esau (note he married Jacob’s grand daughter through Ishmael no less haha)…

    These are the main characters here and they all married cousins. In fact, cousin marriage is not prohibited in the Bible. It wasn’t until the Gregory the Great in the 6th century that Christians couldn’t marry their cousin.

    T

  45. Gravatar of mbka mbka
    21. January 2021 at 06:51

    Christian,

    if you want to know what the pros think of the Iran deal (the US intelligence and military community), read assessments such as these https://warontherocks.com/2021/01/the-lessons-of-the-past-point-to-rejoining-the-iran-deal/ . These are cold, strategic, un-ideological assessments.

    On Iran being the (main? only?) aggressor in the region, this is just silly. The most devastating war in the region was Iraq-Iran, started by Iraq and quietly tolerated / supported by the US. Millions died. No wonder Iran would seek to prevent a repeat by appropriate strategy. What they are doing is, using the entire region as their buffer zone. This is quite similar, strategically, to what Putin does for Russia: create small nuisance conflicts around its immediate borders to create buffer zones and keep its foes busy. Nice? Not. But given history, and the nature of the governments surrounding it, it is somehow understandable. It is what a ruthless but smart strategist would do. It is also remarkably un-ideological and hardly has to do with religion. It is geopolitical power play. Beyond this: Iran and Shia Islam appear far less expansionist and internationalist in their intent and reach than, say, Saudi Arabia and Wahhabite Sunni Islam.

  46. Gravatar of Michael Rulle Michael Rulle
    21. January 2021 at 07:20

    Nice try. You might have missed the story, but we have a new President. Who cares what any of us think about Trump? Maybe you just felt the need to summarize why it is better to have Biden—-although, your list which is repetitive, seems to have a desperate quality to it. I always believed you when you expressed your revulsion about Trump—-you didn’t really need to write this—-but you might be showing signs of Trump addiction. Hope not. Maybe his existence and his supporters freak you out——so you will continue to write about him.

    But I look forward to your comments on Biden. My concern is you have low energy on him. But given your libertarian orientation, I am hopeful he will not bore you to death—-he is boring, but boring does not equal unimportant.

  47. Gravatar of sean sean
    21. January 2021 at 10:32

    It makes no sense to judge trump by the standards of an economy with no pandemic. That measuring stick makes no sense. Compared to 2009 the Trump economic response both at the FED and treasury was far superior than 2009. Its silly to even make that comparison.

  48. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    21. January 2021 at 12:22

    Carl, That’s on the list.

    Steve, You’ve read the Bible? So you also favor banning Christians? We wouldn’t want to take in people who favor stoning to death women who commit adultery, would we?

    Michael, I plan to ignore Biden, and keep talking about Trump. 🙂

    Sean, You don’t want to judge Trump on outcomes. Fine, let’s judge him on intentions. He intended to subvert democracy.

  49. Gravatar of sean sean
    21. January 2021 at 12:39

    Well the obvious answer is trump incited rioting in nancy pelosi’s house. Biden/Pelosi/Harris incited rioting in my neighborhood.

    So you can take a guess on who I’d prefer when given bad options.

  50. Gravatar of Carl Carl
    21. January 2021 at 13:23

    My bad.

  51. Gravatar of Todd Kreider Todd Kreider
    21. January 2021 at 14:52

    I haven’t read all the comments but 1) It’s funny that Scott “Perot” Sumner is an economist worried about trade deficits and 2) I’m surprised that North Korea wasn’t mentioned even if the outcome of this major shift in foreign policy is unknown.

    Of course with respect to Covid-19, Scott knows about the same as Trump so his “Gee, what does CNN tell me?” opinions in this area irrelevant.

  52. Gravatar of Scott H. Scott H.
    21. January 2021 at 14:54

    The first seven failures are all facts that we’d expect to have been true with virtually any counterfactual President as well. Not exactly high impact.

    The Trump Presidency deserves a better accounting of its failures.

  53. Gravatar of TAFKAA TAFKAA
    21. January 2021 at 15:16

    Todd, I can’t believe you still dare show up here again after you ran away scared for the umpteenth time in the last thread. You continue to be deluded and completely incapable of any introspection or critical thinking. Stop calling people names and fix your own issues.

  54. Gravatar of Brian Brian
    21. January 2021 at 15:22

    Todd Kreider, What has changed w.r.t. North Korea? The same guy ins in charge and he still has nukes and rockets. On 2020 Jan 18, UPI reported this… “During a party congress last week, Kim called the United States the “principal enemy” and said North Korea would continue to build up its nuclear weapons capacity.” This sounds like the same status quo that has been in place for decades.

  55. Gravatar of TAFKAA TAFKAA
    21. January 2021 at 15:24

    Todd, let’s forget the existence of COVID and the details of all the arguments about it for a second. The fact that you show up here like this and continue to call people names with the same smug reassurance after several people here posted literally hundreds of comments explaining to why you are wrong is just unbelievable. Maybe you’re right and we are all wrong, but if you weren’t a complete mental case you might at least realize that you should change your tone a little bit. I personally don’t care at all about all your dumb COVID delusions (though it’s much more interesting arguing with actually smart and competent people one disagrees with who can engage properly and have novel points) but your behavior and attitude are completely unacceptable and pathetic. Change your attitude or leave, you are embarrassing yourself.

  56. Gravatar of Todd Kreider Todd Kreider
    21. January 2021 at 17:05

    Brian: “Todd Kreider, What has changed w.r.t. North Korea? The same guy ins in charge and he still has nukes and rockets.”

    For decades, the U.S., Japan, South Korea, etc. refused to negotiated with a Kim at the highest level. Trump did just that, and I have no idea if that was smart or not.

    Oh, Nobel laureate and biophysicist Michael Levitt just tweeted that there were 218,000 excess deaths in the U.S. last year.

  57. Gravatar of Todd Kreider Todd Kreider
    21. January 2021 at 17:10

    Alex Bereson, former NY Times reporter:
    The five stages of woke (“Anonymous” as well) debating:

    1: Your ideas are evil.

    2: You are evil.

    3: I will no longer talk to you.

    4: You aren’t allowed to talk to me.

    5: You aren’t allowed to talk to anyone.

  58. Gravatar of TAFKAA TAFKAA
    21. January 2021 at 17:47

    Todd, You’re lying again, we spent a few hundred posts trying to engage you with substance and you always evaded it so it turned into that. If you want to pick up on one of those threads be my guest and post the link here. It’s particularly ironic since you pop up every time to call Scott names without engaging him on the substance. And we have maybe 5-10 posts just about Michael Levitt. I’m curious if you intentionally ignore things that don’t fit your world view or if it doesn’t filter in but we have like 50 posts about that too. Also you aren’t evil, just a pompous joke.

  59. Gravatar of TAFKAA TAFKAA
    21. January 2021 at 18:25

    One more thing: I’m not sure if you realize this but you’re not a very good or interesting COVID contrarian. There’s a lot of great discussions that people are having about how awful our approach to COVID was and how to approve it and there’s even some decent arguments from “COVID denier” crowd, but instead we are arguing about whether the Abstract of the Danish study says what it does, whether Fauci believes in masks, or whether people who don’t have an undergraduate physics degree should be allowed to talk about COVID.

    You may have skills that you’ve hidden from us but so far your main skill is being persistently annoying while failing to engage with any of your critics or treat them halfway decently. I’m not asking you to go away, I’m asking you to shape up OR go away.

    And again, do you behave like this in real life or just on the internet? Your approach to discussion doesn’t seem conducive to making or keeping friends.

  60. Gravatar of bob bob
    21. January 2021 at 18:32

    We are human. And we’re coming.

    CCP SUMNER IS A NAZI 2.0

    https://freebeacon.com/issues/describing-jews-as-privileged-ethnic-studies-curriculum-sparks-backlash/

  61. Gravatar of Bob (the other one) Bob (the other one)
    21. January 2021 at 18:40

    The cruelty, and ultimately the violence, was the point. Trump didn’t have sky high GOP-approval because of policies; he couldn’t even replace Obamacare. He had sky high approval among Republicans because he enabled and promoted cruelty against the people they don’t like: Muslims, immigrants, Democrats, etc. It was about demonstrating power as a threat to liberals. The cruelty was the intention AND the result, that’s why Republicans love Trump.

  62. Gravatar of TAFKAA TAFKAA
    21. January 2021 at 19:06

    Scott, I know I’m being annoying about this but can’t you please block bob? I feel my IQ drop every single time bob posts, even if there is a bit of irony in a badly written bot calling itself human.

  63. Gravatar of DeservingPorcupine DeservingPorcupine
    21. January 2021 at 19:48

    Nothing Trump did had worse effects than Obama’s “liberation” of Libya.

  64. Gravatar of Carl Carl
    21. January 2021 at 20:11

    bob
    You send a powerful message when you say “We are human. And we’re coming.” It shows you represent not just one human commenter but a constituency of dynamic humans. Take that 2.0 Nazis.

  65. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    21. January 2021 at 22:07

    Todd, You said:

    “I’m surprised that North Korea wasn’t mentioned even if the outcome of this major shift in foreign policy is unknown.”

    Other than his romantic love letters to the mass murderer, what did Trump actually do about North Korea?

    You said:

    “Oh, Nobel laureate and biophysicist Michael Levitt just tweeted that there were 218,000 excess deaths in the U.S. last year.”

    LOL. You get more stupid every day. Try 400,000.

    Bob (the other), Yes, cruelty was definitely a part of his appeal. I loved it when his supporters who stormed the Capitol felt let down when they didn’t get a pardon. These people actually thought Trump cared about them!!

  66. Gravatar of JC1 JC1
    22. January 2021 at 00:49

    Do we judge a president on what they try to do, or the results? In 2019, Trumpistas sidestepped the bad intentions with claims that “results are all that matters”.

    Yep, results up to the end of 2019 were fabulous.

    Today it’s just the opposite.

    Not really. We’ve been pining for 2019 to return.

    We are told that results don’t matter at all; they are beyond the control of the president.

    Most results are beyond the president as you’ve said here so many, many times.

    America’s massive job loss,

    Every western country except Japan has experienced the same level of job losses if not more because of the China bug. Are you really trying to blame Trump for that? Say it ain’t so.

    skyrocketing crime,

    Really, defund the police was a Trump policy and not the demons alongside Black Lies Matter and Antifa?

    falling life expectancy

    The China bug is all Trump’s fault.

    and loss of global prestige under Trump’s watch don’t matter—

    Wake me up when it matters what Belgium and Luxembourg think of the US president.

    Then down the page

    Turned to NIMBYism in final year in office.

    Explain.

    Massive election year boost in wasteful farm subsidies.

    Agreed

    Restricted H1-b visas. Fewer refugees accepted.

    This turned into a leftwing, Demonrat vote fodder racket. Glad he put a stop to it.

    Semi-racist Muslim travel ban.

    When you can tell the good muslim from the bad one, get back to me, otherwise we need to reduce the risk of these loons killing innocent people. It worked!

    Told brown-skinned Congresswomen born in America to go back to their own country.

    Good, they hate America and Americans. It’s good he told them to fuck off if they don’t like it here. They could head back to those paradises from where they came from – Palestine and Ethiopia. The Ethiopian scumbbag married her own brother. All class, right Scott?

    Ended Iran deal, causing Iran to restart nuclear program.
    Because we could trust Iran, right?

    Tightened sanctions on Cuba, a policy that has failed for 60 years in a row.

    Actually it hasn’t failed at all. It’s kept the regime under pressure.

    Launched trade war with China that failed on all counts (economic and political.)

    No it hasn’t. No major American firm will ever again set up operations in China again.

    Replaced NAFTA with a worse NAFTA.

    Perhaps.

    Engaged in lots of white nationalist rhetoric.

    Examples. Also, what’s actually wrong for a white person living proud and with zero guilt?

    Transformed the Republican Party into a personality cult.

    Nonsense.

    Demanded that government officials be personally loyal to him, even if it meant breaking the law.

    Pure speculation coming from the dishonest MSM.

    Frequently had his officials direct government business to his properties.

    Bullshit.

    Pressured Ukraine to damage his political opponent.

    Aren’t you confusing Russia and Hillary? 🙂

    Frequently praised (and pardoned) US war criminals, excusing their behavior.

    Nonsense again.

    Engaged in scorched-earth policy after losing election, having his aides enact a raft of last minute policy changes solely aimed at sabotaging the next administration.

    Of course the Demonrats cheated. They also lie and cheat.

    Pardoned many criminals to avoid having them testify against him.

    You’re making shit up again.

    I’m trying to be impartial here, so I won’t tip my hand as to any sort of overall appraisal. I’ll leave that decision to my readers.

    What do you think? see my answers above.

  67. Gravatar of Spencer B Hall Spencer B Hall
    22. January 2021 at 04:32

    re: Chart 1.9 shows N-gDp trend growth from 1954 to 1969. Observe that inflation takes off after nominal spending rises above trend.

    I don’t apologize, like Dr. George Sheehan, I only study – that which I only study (a Roadmap to Economic Prosperity)

    The U.S. Golden Era in economics was never optimized – there was still a substantial output gap. The macro outcome was due to putting savings back to work (activating monetary savings, bank-held savings). 2/3 of all growth, their erroneous “P*Y”, was related to a savings’ velocity factor.

    With today virtually all growth due to money products, the failure of N-gDp level targeting is guaranteed. I.e., velocity has to fall (cannot be offset with money products), with QE-forever.

  68. Gravatar of Todd Kreider Todd Kreider
    22. January 2021 at 04:38

    Scott,

    I’m not saying Trump’s single country, single leader communication with Kim was good, but it was a major shift from U.S. policy going back decades. North Korea has not tested a missile since June 2017.

    Levvit was quoting a paper in the Annals of Internal Medicine which your bible, the NY Times hasn’t gotten around to mentioning:

    Results:

    “From March through August 2020, 1 671,400 deaths were registered in the United States, including 173,300 COVID-19 deaths. An average of 1 370 000 deaths were reported over the same months during 2015 to 2019, for a crude excess of 301 400 deaths (128,100 non–COVID-19 deaths). However, the 2020 U.S. population includes 5.04 million more persons aged 65 years and older than the average population in 2015 to 2019 (a 10% increase).

    After population changes were taken into account, an estimated 217 900 excess deaths occurred from March through August 2020 (173 300 COVID-19 and 44 600 non–COVID-19 deaths). Most excess non–COVID-19 deaths occurred in April, July, and August, and 34 900 (78%) were in persons aged 25 to 64 years. Diabetes, Alzheimer disease, and heart disease caused the most non–COVID-19 excess deaths.

    https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-7385

  69. Gravatar of Spencer B Hall Spencer B Hall
    22. January 2021 at 04:45

    Calling a spade a spade. Update on the distributed lag effect of money flows, volume times transaction’s velocity:

    05/1/2020 ,,,,, 0.54 0.47
    06/1/2020 ,,,,, 0.61 0.53
    07/1/2020 ,,,,, 0.65 0.55
    08/1/2020 ,,,,, 0.68 0.56
    09/1/2020 ,,,,, 0.68 0.52
    10/1/2020 ,,,,, 0.76 0.60
    11/1/2020 ,,,,, 0.87 0.82
    12/1/2020 ,,,,, 1.26 0.89 economy peaks
    01/1/2021 ,,,,, 1.31 0.56
    02/1/2021 ,,,,, 1.27 0.50
    03/1/2021 ,,,,, 1.21 0.43
    04/1/2021 ,,,,, 1.25 0.39 inflation peaks

  70. Gravatar of steve steve
    22. January 2021 at 08:02

    One of the top lessons, if not THE top lesson of my life was the fact that people in high positions, be it in business, academia, or government in this day and age are almost universally assumed to be far, far, far, FAR more competent than they actually are. There is a presumption of merit and competence in our culture that simply does not comport to reality. Sumner is more proof.

  71. Gravatar of msgkings msgkings
    22. January 2021 at 08:34

    It’s amusing watching Sumner rile up the Trumpies, who have become more angry and unhinged since he lost. There seems to be some denial going on, they just can’t believe how so much of America sees Trump for who he really is.

    Some have disappeared entirely, I wish MORGAN WARSTLER would show up with one of his nutso posts, he was quite sure Trump was some kind of revolutionary savior.

    The xu-bot above has gotten particularly nasty and cussy. I love it.

  72. Gravatar of Michael Sandifer Michael Sandifer
    22. January 2021 at 09:26

    Reading comments from Steve, some things are readily apparent:

    1. He’s bigot who would love Xi, China, and the CCP, if they were white, and pretended to be Christian, like Putin.

    2. He’s never had a good job or otherwise attained anything like what he’d consider an acceptable station on life, and he despises those who have. He’s full of anger and hatred, because he feels entitled to what he hasn’t earned by merit. He’s a nihilist.

    In other words, he’s a typical Trump supporter.

    It’s a mistake to think Trump supporters are aggrieved, because they’re low income. The grievance is due to their narcissistic sense of entitlement. It’s about expectations versus reality, in terms of relative position.

  73. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    22. January 2021 at 09:52

    Todd, You said:

    “an estimated 217 900 excess deaths occurred from March through August 2020”

    LOL. So now e find that Todd doesn’t know the difference between a year and 6 months.

    Trumpistas, You said Trump would be inaugurated on Jan. 20th. I said it would be Biden. I have a simple question:

    Who was right?

  74. Gravatar of steve steve
    22. January 2021 at 09:54

    Michael, you are no James Van Praagh. I’m not even close to being a bigot. Just really anti-Marxist and anti-Muslim, which are both hideous political systems. As far as employment I have been gainfully employed since the day I turned 16 many, many years ago. Nietzsche was never my cup of tea. Go back and put some breast milk on your cereal.

  75. Gravatar of Michael Sandifer Michael Sandifer
    22. January 2021 at 10:16

    Steve replied:

    “I’m not even close to being a bigot. Just really anti-Marxist and anti-Muslim,…”

    lol Can’t make this up. How dare I call someone who’s “anti-Muslim” a bigot? What’s wrong with me?

    And no, Islam is not a political system. Some extremist, fundamental beliefs have an impact on politics, with some supporting Sharia law, but that ignores huge countries like Indonesia and other countries in which most Muslims aren’t like that.

    Some extremist Christians are just as bad as the worst extremist Muslims, and America has more than it’s fair share of them. I call them the American Taliban. Examples include cucks like Jerry Falwell Jr.

    Are you a cuckold like Falwell? I bet you are

  76. Gravatar of steve steve
    22. January 2021 at 10:28

    Michael,
    Islam is a hyper-aggressive, militaristic, expansionist, totalitarian political system but you’re too much of a goon to understand. You see there are only 3 choices in Islam: 1) willing submission (convert); 2) payment of the jizyah through physical, though not spiritual, submission to the authority of Islam; or 3) the sword, for it is not right to let an infidel live. As Osama Bin Laden stated: “The matter is summed up for every person alive: Either submit, or live under the suzerainty of Islam, or die.” I guess I am a bigot since I am intolerant of anyone with that worldview.

  77. Gravatar of msgkings msgkings
    22. January 2021 at 11:27

    @steve:

    You are a bigot because you assume an entire group of over a billion people all have those views.

  78. Gravatar of Todd Kreider Todd Kreider
    22. January 2021 at 17:06

    Scott,

    I didn’t realize it was for seven months at first because I didn’t read the summary of the paper but that is of course completely irrelevant to what the study shows.

    That seven months includes 95% of what happened until the cooler temperatures of the fall set in.

  79. Gravatar of Todd Kreider Todd Kreider
    22. January 2021 at 18:50

    Steve wrote:

    “One of the top lessons, if not THE top lesson of my life was the fact that people in high positions, be it in business, academia, or government in this day and age are almost universally assumed to be far, far, far, FAR more competent than they actually are. There is a presumption of merit and competence in our culture that simply does not comport to reality. Sumner is more proof.”

    —-

    Bullseye.

  80. Gravatar of Carl Carl
    22. January 2021 at 20:06

    Michael Sandifer
    You wrote “ Islam is not a political system.” You’ll find agreement in Indonesia, but you might get an argument from the Saudi Wahhabis and the Iranian mullahs.

  81. Gravatar of Michael Sandifer Michael Sandifer
    22. January 2021 at 20:16

    Add Todd Kreider to the list of those who obviously don’t think Scott and other successful people deserve their success.

    I’m willing to bet Kreider has no accomplishments of which he can feel proud, and so he wants to tear down successful people, while demagoguing minorities and others to blame them for his own failures and insecurities.

    As with all narcissists, he’s always unprepared, thinking his self-serving assumptions will substitute for knowledge and reason, while attacking those who do actual research as being biased.

    Also, he’s likely also a cuckold.

  82. Gravatar of Michael Sandifer Michael Sandifer
    22. January 2021 at 20:29

    Seriously, several of the commenters on this blog are the worst examples of, presumably, human filth I’ve ever seen. To casually call the author of this blog a pedophile, communist, fascist, cuck, etc,, is as low as it gets. Of course, most of us understand that right-wing extremists usually are exactly what they accuse others of being. Most of them would love Xi and China if not for them being non-white and non-Christian. Most of them are deeply insecure narcissists, and are complete scoundrels, which is why they treat everyone else as being scoundrels. Why would a lazy, loser scoundrel trust anyone else?

    Those who are anti-LBGTQ are often gay or bisexual themselves, and coupled with their insecurities, also primed to literally be good cuckolds, since that and sperm competition underlie the dynamic.

    They don’t realize the rest of us see through them, and it’s only one of the many reasons we laugh at them.

    Many of them are also cognitively challenged, for various reasons, but their utter deplorable behavior forbids sympathy.

  83. Gravatar of TAFKAA TAFKAA
    22. January 2021 at 20:44

    Michael, why do I feel this is all directed at me?

  84. Gravatar of TAFKAA TAFKAA
    22. January 2021 at 20:49

    Jokes aside thanks for saying what I’m sure many commenters and the majority of readers who don’t comment already know. I don’t know if the internet brings out the worst in humanity or if I’ve just been lucky to not meet any of these kind of people in the real world yet.

  85. Gravatar of Bob OBrien Bob OBrien
    22. January 2021 at 21:23

    As an average voter (not a policy wonk) here is how I see the last 4 years in order of importance:

    1) Make Government Small. Not good but better than if the dems were in office.

    2) Free Speech and good Judges. Excellent.

    3) Economy. 3% unemployment until the virus and then a quick uptick. Very Good.

    4) Law and Order. An A for effort but not good. I blame this on the dems in the large cities.

    5) Education. An A for effort but not good. Made some progress but our children are still being brainwashed by the dems.

    6) Global Warming. An A. Global warming is a scam and we took a step back from going down this path.

    7) International. Excellent. Reversed the Iran deal. Made progress in the middle east. Good approach to the Chinese Communist Party. Got Europe to increase funding on defense. Emphasized “Legal” immigration and stopped the flood of illegal entries.

    8) Energy. Excellent. We are now energy independent.

  86. Gravatar of TAFKAA TAFKAA
    22. January 2021 at 21:48

    Bob, why do you have an opinion on the Iran deal if you’re an average voter? I’ve put about 100 hours into it and I have only the vaguest opinion. Legal immigration has been made far more difficult under the last administration. I will not touch on the other topics except to say that it’s absurd that global warming is a “scam”. You should ask yourself why you believe this.

  87. Gravatar of TAFKAA TAFKAA
    22. January 2021 at 21:50

    I remember coming here and reading comments with economic arguments that were way above my head (I have taken a decent chunk of undergraduate and graduate Econ courses for fun but don’t have a degree). Now many new commenters can’t even pass a basics civics test.

  88. Gravatar of Thomas Hutcheson Thomas Hutcheson
    23. January 2021 at 08:29

    Reducing corporate tax rates was not just good, it was GREAT. Business taxes are so riddled with loopholes, credits for this and that, special deals that it distorts relative pre-tax rates of return across sectors and so creates inefficiency. Moreover, since not all shareholders have the same income, it a poor way of progressively reducing private consumption. Better if the rate were zero with profits imputed to owners.

    But …. the “Tax Cuts for the Rich and Deficits Act of 2017” reduced collection when the economy was near full employment, specifically reduced collections from high income individuals, and left in place the preferential taxation of income earned abroad. Strike One, Strike Two, Strike Three. Out!

  89. Gravatar of Thomas Hutcheson Thomas Hutcheson
    23. January 2021 at 08:34

    Neither inentions nor results but results of policies and statements.

  90. Gravatar of Bob OBrien Bob OBrien
    23. January 2021 at 09:08

    TAFKAA, See my reply to your comments below.

    Iran: They are religious fanatics who are on a path to getting the bomb. This was delayed some over the last 4 years by starving them of resources which I consider to be a very good policy. The previous policy accepted them as a nuclear power if they would just keep quiet about it for a few years.

    Global Warming Scam:

    “…it’s absurd that global warming is a “scam”. You should ask yourself why you believe this.”

    I have read quite a bit on this subject. The people pushing the global warming scam are mostly politicians who know nothing about the “science”. They complain and then fly their carbon emitting Lear jets to Davos. They predict things in the future that do not turn out to be true etc. If you are interested and open minded you can find a huge volume of published info supporting my scam comment. Just a few:

    Prof. Carters Book: https://www.amazon.com/Climate-Counter-Consensus-Palaeoclimatologist-Speaks-Independent/dp/1906768293

    https://libertyunyielding.com/2018/07/10/forget-global-warming-winter-is-coming-and-it-will-be-a-doozy/

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/global-warming-natural-or-manmade/

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/

    https://judithcurry.com/2014/07/17/exploring-controversy-nipcc-versus-ipcc/

  91. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    23. January 2021 at 09:46

    Bob, Free speech got worse under Trump. You didn’t notice cancel culture?

    You said:

    “Good approach to the Chinese Communist Party.”

    You are presumably referring to Trump’s encouraging Xi to put Muslims into concentration camps.

    “Make Government Small. Not good but better than if the dems were in office.”

    Actually, government grows faster under Republican presidents. But nice try.

    “They are religious fanatics who are on a path to getting the bomb. This was delayed some over the last 4 years by starving them of resources which I consider to be a very good policy.”

    Actually, their nuclear program sped up under Trump. But nice try.

    You said:

    “The people pushing the global warming scam are mostly politicians who know nothing about the “science”.”

    Actually, scientists overwhelmingly accept the truth of global warming. But nice try.

    People who live in epistemic bubbles should not throw stones.

    Michael, You said:

    “Seriously, several of the commenters on this blog are the worst examples of, presumably, human filth I’ve ever seen. To casually call the author of this blog a pedophile, communist, fascist, cuck, etc,”

    I recently noticed that they all share the same computer. That indicates they are probably poor, and deserving of some compassion.

  92. Gravatar of Bob OBrien Bob OBrien
    23. January 2021 at 10:45

    From Scott:
    “Free speech got worse under Trump. You didn’t notice cancel culture?”

    You mean like getting people fired and bankrupting businesses who are conservative. Universities only hiring liberals and trying to fire conservatives. In the majority of cancel culture cases the victim was conservative. Yes this increased over the last four years but you fail to mention that the perpetrators are OVERWHELMINGLY leftists.

    Maybe a president Rubio or Christi would have been less likely to be targeted, but, after the primaries, we did not have this choice and Clinton would have been much worse in many other ways.

    I am done commenting on the last four years. I hope Scott will move on and look to the future.

  93. Gravatar of Michael Sandifer Michael Sandifer
    24. January 2021 at 10:14

    Do people actually get cancelled just for a expressing conservative opinions, or is it for bigotry, fascism, defamation, incitement of violence, etc.?

    When was George Will or James Pethokoukis cancelled?

  94. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    24. January 2021 at 12:08

    Bob, The perpetrators included Trump! Is that not relevant when talking about Trump’s specific impact on cancel culture?

    You said:

    “Maybe a president Rubio or Christi would have been less likely to be targeted, but, after the primaries, we did not have this choice”

    And why is that? Did the Democrats force the GOP to nominate a stupid lying authoritarian nationalist thug? Or was that the overwhelming choice of GOP primary voters?

    Michael, You asked:

    “Do people actually get cancelled just for a expressing conservative opinions”

    Yes!!! People get cancelled for liberal and moderate opinions. David Shor was cancelled for tweeting a study showing how riots reduced votes for Democrats.

    Yglesias wasn’t cancelled for signing that free speech petition, but he was harassed enough to want to leave Vox.

  95. Gravatar of Christian List Christian List
    24. January 2021 at 15:09

    You continually talk about Saudi Arabia like they are one of the good guys, at the same time that you criticize China on human rights. All I can do is shake my head. Do you have any idea what they are doing in Yemen? How about the human rights situation within Saudi Arabia?

    Scott,

    No, you are misreading this. Saudi Arabia is a mini power that is also subordinate to the US. That is at least roughly the right direction. CCP China is a major power that has zero interest in subordinating itself in any way to the current democratic world order, which is modeled after the US and its values.

    CCP China is pursuing its own CCP agenda and they are trying to shape the world according to their own anti-democratic ideas. And they are quite successful. How can you not see that.

    And the main point I am criticizing is the way you negate this negative development. Be it naivety, ideology, or whatever reason that may be responsible for it. Regarding this topic you are just getting more absurd every day.

    if you want to know what the pros think of the Iran deal

    mbka,

    That’s just an assistant professor with a research focus on nonproliferation. It’s completely foolish to look at the complex Iran problem and the Iran deal only under the aspect of nonproliferation. But that is exactly what your text does. This is exactly the same mistake Bush made in Iraq when he only talked about democratization. It is an extremely narrow-minded restriction to one single aspect. It doesn’t make any sense. Look, Iran is quasi-in a state of war with Israel and Saudi Arabia. Any reasonable deal would start at this point.

    What they are doing is, using the entire region as their buffer zone. This is quite similar, strategically, to what Putin does for Russia.

    And in the case of Russia, Scott rightly rejects this behavior. Look, I think you’ve misunderstood something tremendously here, just because there are motivations and reasons for something doesn’t mean that it must have our support. These are two completely different things, such as understanding and endorsing are two completely different things.

    Of course there are reasons for Iran to expand back to the Persian Empire, and Turkey to expand back to its Islamic Empire, and for Russia to restore the USSR, and for China to pursue the Tianxia strategy, and for Hitler to want to rule the world from Britain to Iran to Russia. All logical in itself. But nowhere does it say that the US should support such plans.

    The history of the US so far has been based on preventing such plans. Of course, the US could abandon this scheme now, but then we would have a new world order, where anti-democratic forces play a dominant role once again.

    And why don’t you extend your great understanding to military buildup and proliferation? If Iran is not an aggressor on your list, then there is no reason to deny them proliferation. Or what is your point?

    Except, of course, Iran signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1970. But they are not abiding by the treaty. So we just make another treaty about nonproliferation. And maybe another one? How many treaties should there be on this issue? And why should Iran abide by them? They are not even abiding the first one. If one doesn’t honor a treaty, then one is rewarded with more and more extra deals. Is that the lesson here? That’s the same idiotic mistake Trump did with North Korea, but at least North Korea is a bit more honest: they have left the NPT.

  96. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    25. January 2021 at 09:26

    Christian, If Saudi Arabia is as you describe, it should be easy for America to pressure it to shape up. So why don’t we?

  97. Gravatar of Christian List Christian List
    26. January 2021 at 11:36

    Scott,

    I think that’s a complex question. There is certainly some pressure that tries to force them to improve. One can always argue whether it’s too little or too much pressure.

    The critics would probably say that it’s not proven that more pressure actually makes things better. Has pressure ever made things better, they would ask. Saudi Arabia is a fragile entity where there are basically two groups: Minimal reformers vs arch-conservative islamists. There is already considerable tension (and terrorist secessions) just because America is allowed to maintain military bases there and because it maintains a military alliance with Saudi Arabia.

    As I said, this alliance is essential for me because it goes in the right direction: The ruling forces in Saudi Arabia recognize America’s leadership claim. That is the right direction, everything else will fall into place.

    Saudi Arabia cannot tell a success story that exists independently from the American-democratized world. So it has no charisma and no “lighthouse function” for other dictatorships. This is quite essential.

    With CCP China, unfortunately, it is different; it is a real “success story”, a path independent from the democratized world, where, of course, very many dictatorships and autocracies say to themselves: Very interesting, we are also going this way.

    This also explains very well why autocracies are on the rise again worldwide. They again have some kind of “USSR” that supports them, keeps them alive and revitalizes them. This is really not hard to figure out.

  98. Gravatar of Peter Schaeffer Peter Schaeffer
    27. January 2021 at 06:35

    “Semi-racist Muslim travel ban” – Never happened. Just a silly left-wing lie. What did Trump actually do? He imposed travel restriction on a small number of countries, just as Obama did. Of course, when the ‘sainted one’ did it, it was OK (just like putting kids in cages which Obama also did), but when Trump did it, it was outrageous.

  99. Gravatar of Amechanician Amechanician
    28. January 2021 at 22:18

    As a one issue non voter I was glad he won over Clinton. Unmentioned in the post and almost unmentioned in the comments was that we didn’t enter in to any new wars.

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