And so it begins . . .
During the campaign, I suggested that I had no idea what Trump would do as president, other than that it would probably bear little or no relation to his campaign promises, which were so erratic and impractical that they could not be taken seriously. Here’s the FT:
But he asserted that the remaining 8m to 9m undocumented immigrants in the country were “terrific people” and that a decision about whether or not to deport them would only be taken later into his presidency.
Mr Trump said his long-proposed wall on the US border with Mexico could include “some fencing”. “For certain areas, I would [accept fencing] but certain areas, a wall is more appropriate. I’m very good at this. It’s called construction.”
He also suggested he would now try to keep certain elements of the Affordable Care Act — also known as Obamacare — when he rolled out his own healthcare initiative, including allowing children in their twenties to stay on their parents’ healthcare plan and ensuring that people with pre-existing conditions were still able to receive coverage.
So no wall along the entire border, no expulsion of the 9 million illegals who broke no laws while in the US (Obama’s policy too), and no repeal of Obamacare. Three major promises broken today. But I suppose even that’s debatable, as you can find moments during the campaign where he hinted that he’d keep some of Obamacare and that some illegals could stay. Let’s just say that he gave his supporters a misleading impression, if they merely focused on the more controversial soundbites. The “pre-existing conditions” aspect of Obamacare is right at the heart of the program. It’s going to be very hard to “get rid of Obamacare” and still have that provision.
The first two are big positives–kudos to Trump, while the Obamacare decision depends on what sort of alterations he comes up with. Trump will probably want to just eliminate the unpopular bits, which will lead it to collapse more quickly than otherwise. And that might or might not be a good thing, depending on what comes next. (Single-payer under the next Democratic administration?)
He also appointed the publisher of the disgusting alt-right website Breitbart News as his “chief strategist”. So the “bad Trump” isn’t going away anytime soon.
PS. The FT also has an interesting piece by Larry Summers criticizing the fiscal stimulus plan being discussed by Trump advisers. Larry is not a fan of “populist economics”. Neither am I.
PPS. Here’s how alt-right commenter Harding feels after reading the FT piece:
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13. November 2016 at 18:25
I’m waiting for the intra-party confirmation fight when he tries to nominate his liberal sister to the Supreme Court.
13. November 2016 at 19:17
Who bring up NGDPLT idea to Trump?
13. November 2016 at 19:38
Well … some valid points here. But calling Brietbart disgusting just validates/highlights/corroborates/demonstrates why Trump won in the first place. Why not call the NYT disgusting?
If the NYT were doing its job Brietbart never would have come into existence. That’s just a basic fact. The NYT created a market opportunity you could drive a bright orange monster truck through. Brietbart and Alex Jones did just that. Good for them! Capitalism in action!
13. November 2016 at 19:43
Stupid post. Can you please wait until assumes the presidency?
I was more offended at his implication Obergeffell stays than anything here. Cruz, Bannon, and Pence should keep him in line.
He should set up land mines at the border, as well as an underground electric fence.
MAGA!
13. November 2016 at 19:46
There is nothing “alt-right” about Breibart. It’s a conservative news website in the same way the NYT is a Democrat one.
13. November 2016 at 19:59
It seems pundit Ph.Ds who understand NGDPLT has been all against president-elect Trump.
How can we(you) implement NGDPLT(+ whatever it takes approach) ?
He can understand easily advantage of NGDPLT because he must have huge long-term debt(real-estate investment).
Under BB fed, honcho was Obama.
(So stii short of trend line https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP )
MM people, any connection?
Or “Make America Keynesian Again”?https://marketmonetarist.com/2016/11/09/make-america-keynesian-again/
13. November 2016 at 20:01
need JR maglev?
13. November 2016 at 20:40
I expected Sumner to be quick and eager to declare “flip-flop” and broken promises.
Are the immigration restrictionists still happy? Are the open borders types still having meltdowns? These are clear signs that there has not been a flip flop.
We always expected implementation changes and rhetorical concessions. He’s not doing blanket amnesty. He’s appointing Stephen Bannon, head of Breitbart, as chief strategist. How much cooler can you get than that?
13. November 2016 at 20:53
So Larry Kudlow, economic advisor to Trump, would like to see John Taylor as Fed. Chair. Any thoughts on that? Kudlow and Taylor would both like to have rule-based monetary policy for major currencies. Any thoughts on that? I assume it would not be NGDPLT.
FYI, before the election Trump proposed a re-insurance method to support re-existing conditions for health insurance. So just a flip-flop to the uninformed. I don’t know why leftists are so confused over the objections to ACA.
14. November 2016 at 01:43
OT to Scott:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-gdp-idUSKBN1380Z7
Japan economy does better than expected…and Kuroda issues warning…that there are risks to growth, not that inflation might get worse!
Kuroda is a real central banker.
14. November 2016 at 03:19
OT to Scott:
“The regular monthly release of key economic data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed industrial production grew at an annualised pace of 6.1 per cent in October.
That was in line with a month earlier, but below expectations given stronger manufacturing surveys recently and the fact it was coming off a low base.
Retail sales were surprisingly weak, growing at 10 per cent over the year, but well down on the 10.7 per cent growth recorded in September.
On the other hand, fixed asset investment (FAI) – which is a proxy for construction and infrastructure spending – held up better than expected, growing at 8.3 per cent in the year-to-date, a marginal acceleration on the 8.2 per cent reported in September.”
So, retail sales up 10% YOY, and industrial production rising at 6.1% annual pace.
Western economists predict gloom, point to weakness.
Is there even a single bona fide Western economist asking or studying if the People’s Bank of China plays a role in China’s sustained growth?
The lack of intellectual curiosity among orthodox macroeconomists is dumbfounding. They instead just predict collapse, and bang the drums louder.
14. November 2016 at 03:32
On-topic.
There is already 580 miles of barriers (walls) and fence on the US-Mexico border, and it is mostly effective. It is effective enough that drug-runners prefer to tunnel under it. The existing barriers (walls) do not seem to be controversial.
I wonder about boats. I mean the Gulf of Mexico is wide-open.
BTW, “The Republican Party’s 2012 platform states that ‘The double-layered fencing on the border that was enacted by Congress in 2006, but never completed, must finally be built.’ ”
So Trump is in line with the 2012 stated GOP platform.
Does one get the sense that the cartoon is true: The GOP promises to seal the border every four years and then does not?
I am sure it is because the GOP establishment is made of wonderful cosmopolitans, embracing world cultures and not because they want cheap labor.
14. November 2016 at 04:46
E. Harding: “There is nothing “alt-right” about Breibart. It’s a conservative news website in the same way the NYT is a Democrat one.”
My god you’re delusional. Allow me to quote Steve Bannon: “We’re the platform for the alt-right.”
14. November 2016 at 05:15
It’s interesting to see several intelligent people continue to communicate with these alt-righters here, if communication’s the word. I wonder if they ever feel like they’re wasting their time?
14. November 2016 at 05:57
Just wish the health plan would be as follows:
– National catastrophic progressive high deductible insurance – nobody should go bankrupt getting ill, and we have the real health resources to care for people. Higher your income, the higher the deductible.
– National HSA accounts with tax credit funding that progressive – fades out at higher income levels. ER’s can match in plans as a benefit.
– Allow markets for supplemental plans
– Of course nobody denied insurance, and pre-existing conditions not penalized.
14. November 2016 at 06:00
“President Trump: How & Why” (by Jonathan Pie)
This video is required viewing for the Left (and anyone else shocked by Trump’s election). Safe spaces and militant political correctness gave birth to both the alt-right and the Orange Dragon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLG9g7BcjKs
14. November 2016 at 06:22
Last week, the markets did what the Fed has been unable to do since June of 2015- push long-term inflation expectations up to 2%. No need for Fed to offset anything yet.
14. November 2016 at 06:43
This is America 2016, where disgusting news outlets publish the truth, and everyone who is reading mainstream, respectable sources has no idea what is going on.
14. November 2016 at 06:47
Here’s one thing on my health care policy wish list. Cash payers get the lowest price. Right now you have to have insurance for their bargaining power. I’ve had personal experience with hospital bills of $50k being reduced to $5k by the insurer and the hospital was fine with that (thankfully I was insured).
14. November 2016 at 06:51
This meets expectations. I’ve generally believed that Trump, like anyone else, will want to be seen as an effective and successful President, and given that he’s not much of an ideologue, that he would govern from a practical perspective. He feels comfortable picking from a grab bag of traditionally conservative or traditionally liberal policies. He might still make a serious mistake or two (e.g. trade), but it won’t be because of rigid ideology.
Because Trump has convinced his strongest supporters that he is ‘one of them’, he’ll be able to make pragmatic policy decisions that might otherwise have been unpalatable to them. The same policy coming from a Trump Administration is acceptable whereas it would have been anathema coming from the Clinton Administration (and vice versa – Democrats will critique Trump for things they would have been okay with had they been done by Obama or Clinton).
As for Steve Bannon, it’s hard to judge that choice. He might actually be good for the job, Trump might just like him personally, or perhaps its a bone thrown to his alt-right supporters.
14. November 2016 at 08:06
Alt-righters, You guys are just as delusional as before the election. So nothing’s changed on that front. It’s going to be a fun 4 years, rubbing this stuff in your face, day after day.
14. November 2016 at 08:26
I like Justin’s second paragraph.
I’d laugh if Trump is the one to impose a carbon tax and use it to cut tax rates for the 1%.
14. November 2016 at 08:32
“My god you’re delusional. Allow me to quote Steve Bannon: “We’re the platform for the alt-right.””
Is the alt-right a legitimate political affiliation that you are allowed to advocate for? Or is it so horrific that it needs to be aggressively shunned and outcast?
Some important points and genuine insights are being silenced and dismissed. To requote Tyler Cowen, who I believe is a respected figure here, “I think it is a category mistake to dismiss neo-reaction on the grounds of racism or prejudice.” And I believe the labels “alt-right” and “neo-reaction” are largely equivalent.
I don’t dispute that Bannon and Breitbart are alt-right, but I would stress they represent many important viewpoints that are unjustly silenced.
14. November 2016 at 09:32
– E. Harding
– Sarah Posner
14. November 2016 at 10:40
IMO Trump values personal loyalty to him much more than anything else, so it’s not crazy to assume he’d nominate her. If he gets push-back, maybe he can rally his cultists.
14. November 2016 at 11:39
Scott, I think this might make you laugh, cry, whatever:
https://youtu.be/V84zSdlNdtc
14. November 2016 at 11:46
^^^^ coins a new term:
“3rd Wave AltRight”
——————-
?
14. November 2016 at 12:21
My favorite first order explanation is the line “supporters took him seriously but not literally, while opponents did the reverse”.
He obviously does not take himself literally.
I see him as a dealmaker. He’ll make whatever deals he can, and use his potent persuasion skills to make us like it. I doubt that I will like it.
14. November 2016 at 12:41
t’s not crazy to assume he’d nominate her.
She’s 79 and retired five years ago.
14. November 2016 at 12:42
“There is nothing “alt-right” about Breibart.”
I disagree, but in all fairness, these political categorizations are extremely subjective. There is already endless debate about what “conservative” is? Literally, it is traditional, orthodox, adverse to change, and that isn’t seriously what most people mean. Or a “progressive”: everyone supports their idea of progress, but clearly, the label “progressives” indicates a specific controversial form of progress that is widely disputed. No one agrees on what a “libertarian” is either: just a conservative who likes marijuana or hates Abraham Lincoln? “alt-right” is literally an alternative or different strain of the regular right wing types, like alt-rock, which is a very vague definition. Politically, one should expect people to dodge labels that are being categorically condemned as “alt-right” is on the verge of.
14. November 2016 at 12:44
My god you’re delusional. Allow me to quote Steve Bannon: “We’re the platform for the alt-right.”
It’s only in the last year or so one sees ‘alt-right’ used to mean ‘white nationalist’ a la Jared Taylor et al. It used to have a broader usage encompassing anyone who was not of the conventional right.
14. November 2016 at 12:46
Breitbart has always struck me as distinguished by a mode and sensibility, not an ideology. Mandy Nagy was a Breitbart employee, to take one example. Fairly conventional, libertarianish research journalist.
14. November 2016 at 12:47
There is already 580 miles of barriers (walls) and fence on the US-Mexico border, and it is mostly effective. It is effective enough that drug-runners prefer to tunnel under it. The existing barriers (walls) do not seem to be controversial.
The unspoken complaint about the wall is that it would be effective, which is most vexing to people who want open borders.
14. November 2016 at 12:49
While we’re at it, Tom Brown, do you have any corroboration for that suppose remark of Barron?
14. November 2016 at 12:56
Barron? Trump’s youngest son? I believe this is the first time I’ve ever written anything about him. What are you talking about?
14. November 2016 at 13:08
… I assume you meant “Bannon?” … yes, I quoted Sarah Posner who interviewed him in July.
Ben Shapiro, former editor at large of Breitbart, believes it:
https://twitter.com/benshapiro/status/798212241032028161
14. November 2016 at 13:26
More on Bannon & AltRight here:
http://theresurgent.com/constant-vigilance/?utm_content=buffer314ec&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
14. November 2016 at 13:31
That’s not to say Bannon doesn’t have his enthusiastic supporters:
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/305912-kkk-american-nazi-party-praise-trumps-hiring-of-bannon
H/T Tom Nichols
14. November 2016 at 13:45
You can see Shapiro’s actual complaint here. It consists of
1. General characterizations.
2. Transferring the scent. Things Trump advocates resemble things Marine Le Pen advocates. Shapiro is aware that his readership will be aware FN is tainted because of her father’s history. You are aware that this daisy chain is not a valid argument and that Shapiro himself likely does not believe it?
3. Incredible imputations. Shapiro fancies Barron thinks Jared Taylor types are a large untapped constituency that they benefit by pandering to. Or pretends he believe that.
4. Sleight of hand. Trump cannot ‘dump’ white nationalists anymore than HRC could dump the Socialist Worker Party. He doesn’t employ any.
—
For all I know, a complaint about Bannon’s management of Breitbart could be legitimate. I don’t read the site. Then again, quondam employees who call you Darth Vader sans details are not the most believable informants.
—
14. November 2016 at 13:47
The URL for the Shapiro article is stopped by the spam filter. The title is
”
3 Thoughts On Steve Bannon As White House ‘Chief Strategist’
14. November 2016 at 13:49
yes, I quoted Sarah Posner who interviewed him in July.
And my question is, what’s to stop Posner from making it up? She’s a polemical writer for the political opposition.
14. November 2016 at 14:24
—–
Why don’t you ask Shapiro why he believes it? He knows Bannon and he responds to tweets. Also I don’t see Bannon denying it.
All the URLs work fine for me. Maybe you need to adjust you settings.
14. November 2016 at 14:48
I don’t care if Shapiro believes it. That’s immaterial to me. And I don’t tweet.
The URL’s work, they just do not make it past the spam filter here. That’s not my browser’s problem.
14. November 2016 at 15:16
?
14. November 2016 at 15:37
https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/798301697328246788