Recent articles
1. I often discuss the “clown show” aspect of Trump’s style. It turns out that these sort of antics are now pretty widespread on the right. Here’s The Economist:
Imagine the dinner party from hell and it would look a lot like the one politicians from Forum for Democracy (fvd), a Dutch far-right party, held in November. It began with a row over the backing music, with guests torn between classical music or Ava Max’s “Kings & Queens”, a trashy dance hit. Over lobster and wine, allegations of anti-Semitism among the party’s youth ranks were dismissed by its leader, Thierry Baudet. Guests were asked how many people they would let die for the sake of freedom (“three million” was Mr Baudet’s offer). Later, the fvd’s leader suggested that covid-19 was the work of George Soros. In the days that followed, as accounts of the dinner surfaced, politicians from the party lined up to quit. It was a spectacular collapse after a remarkable rise. Founded only in 2016, fvd was feted as the future of the far right in the eu, briefly topping opinion polls in 2019. Its piano-playing, Hegel-quoting leader was breathlessly profiled in the press. Now it goes into a general election in March hoping for a few seats at best.
A clown ceiling exists in eu politics, which has kept Eurosceptic parties such as fvd from gaining too much power. Such parties tend to grow quickly before collapsing, often due to their own risible ineptitude.
The Financial Times had a similar article.
America seems to be one of the few developed countries where a major party can become a complete clown show and still hold on to almost 40% of the electorate.
2. Reason magazine points out that the Biden administration has abandoned cost/benefit analysis when deciding on new regulations:
President Joe Biden has moved swiftly to rev up the regulatory state by weakening oversight and effectively ending a reality-based assessment of the costs and benefits of federal regulation.
Even Obama used the cost/benefit criterion to decide on new regulations, so this is a major step back toward the Dark Ages for the Democrats. Although I’m disappointed, I can’t say I am surprised. The entire economics profession has been going steadily downhill since at least 2008, and this sort of intellectual regression eventually has policy consequences.
3. This article discusses a December 2020 debate within the White House about nutty election conspiracy theories. It’s a sort of real life Dr. Strangelove. Very funny.
4. Lots of conservatives are leaving Fox News because it’s too left wing, and going over to ultra-right wing Newsmax. But now even Newsmax has been taken over the the left. Check out this hilarious video. Where will the Trumpistas go next?
5. China’s January 22 decision to lockdown Wuhan was a major turning point in the pandemic, but a less well remembered event occurred just two days later when China announced asymptomatic transmission.
Zeynep Tufekci has an excellent essay discussing how this should have profoundly changed our understanding of the pandemic, and yet many of us were reluctant to accept the implications. (I’d include myself in that list of people to blame.)
Before the lockdown, there was great reason to suspect their official statements. Afterward, however, they had finally unleashed their actual scientists to warn us, because as explained above, now their incentives were aligned with preventing the pandemic, and warn us they did.
Further, the Criterion of Embarrassment, something historians use all the time, greatly increased my confidence in this paper—and everything the Chinese CDC would publish in the next month or so. This is the idea that something that embarrasses or puts the speaker in a difficult position is more likely to be true. From this paper, we learned that most of the cases had never been to the seafood market and that human-to-human transmission had been occurring since December. This was clearly supremely embarrassing for Chinese authorities and also very dangerous. This confirmed the cover-up, and now both China and the world were risking a pandemic. So everything in this paper and all their warnings now had a great deal of paper.
From this paper, we learned that the mean incubation period was about five days (still true). We learned that the elderly were at much greater risk (still true).
But we learned something else very important: The paper explained that some cases either had very mild or atypical presentations. They did not reliably come with the high-fever of SARS, which, very, very luckily for the world, coincided with the infectious period of SARS.
In addition, Chinese officials were already telling us that the disease was spreading from patients without symptoms.
Read the entire essay; it’s excellent. Here’s her conclusion:
Now, this was round two. The Chinese officials were telling us the truth, because it was now in their interest to do so. Their scientists were doing their best to warn us, because as scientists that is what they want to do, and they had finally been allowed to share this with us. Everything we needed to know to act was right there in front of us, but it required not just knowledge, but a theory of knowledge to turn it into actionable, timely information.
So here we are.