OK, some of you can, but many of you cannot:

1. The truth that masks work has been confirmed in another major scientific mega-study:

In this narrative review, we develop an analytical framework to examine mask usage, synthesizing the relevant literature to inform multiple areas: population impact, transmission characteristics, source control, wearer protection, sociological considerations, and implementation considerations. A primary route of transmission of COVID-19 is via respiratory particles, and it is known to be transmissible from presymptomatic, paucisymptomatic, and asymptomatic individuals. Reducing disease spread requires two things: limiting contacts of infected individuals via physical distancing and other measures and reducing the transmission probability per contact. The preponderance of evidence indicates that mask wearing reduces transmissibility per contact by reducing transmission of infected respiratory particles in both laboratory and clinical contexts. Public mask wearing is most effective at reducing spread of the virus when compliance is high. Given the current shortages of medical masks, we recommend the adoption of public cloth mask wearing, as an effective form of source control, in conjunction with existing hygiene, distancing, and contact tracing strategies.

Or maybe you think doctors have been wearing masks for 100 years because they feel comfy.

2. Covid denialism: There’s a school of thought that Covid deaths are greatly exaggerated. These claims are false, as we have lots of other data from various sources that back up the Covid fatality figures. Proponents of this fallacy suffer from innumeracy.

3. Stop the steal: Those who deny Biden’s win also suffer from innumeracy. A close look at county-by-county results shows that there was no widespread voter fraud, as Biden won because he did unusually well in lots of Republican controlled, well-educated suburban countries, not because he did unusually well in heavily black and Hispanic areas.

4. Climate denialism: It perfectly OK to question the policy preferences of environmentalists, but the truth of global warming is pretty firmly established by data from a wide range of sources.

5. Inflation truthers: No, true inflation is not running at 8%. If that were so then Trump would have presided over one of the worst depressions in world history, even before Covid hit in 2020. Wage growth is only around 3%/year. Does anyone think 2017-19 were years of catastrophic depression in the US? More innumeracy.

6. China denialists: While you can certainly question the exact figures, it’s not true that the Chinese government lies when they claim rapid economic growth over 40 years, as we have data from lots of non-Chinese sources that confirm this fact. If Western companies that do business with China lied about their (soaring) sales in China, then their executives could go to prison for accounting fraud. Why would they take that risk? I’ve been to China 8 times since 1994—the incredible growth is obvious to anyone with two eyes. Similarly, there is no evidence that China failed to control Covid after early missteps.

Why are so many people unable to handle the truth? The common theme here is that people believe what they want to believe. I have no problem with people being delusional, what I object to is their insistence that others share their delusions, as a way of showing “loyalty to the cause”.

Thus Trump doesn’t just insist that the election was stolen. He insists others knowingly and falsely claim that the election was stolen. Unless you are willing to lie for Trump, you are not sufficiently loyal.

Thus commenters don’t just insist that China is lying about rapid economic growth and Covid success, they insist that I share in their lies. If I fail to share their wild conspiracy theories, it shows that I am insufficiently loyal to the anti-communist cause. “He said something good about China, he must be a secret CCP supporter!”

In fact, there is no one in the blogosphere who is more anti-communist than I am. But my anti-communism comes from a mix of realism, pragmatism and utilitarianism. I understand that China’s rapid economic growth came from moving away from central control and toward the increased use of private markets. I don’t feel a need to signal loyalty to any particular tribe of anti-communist fanatics—I have confidence in my own reasons for being an anti-communist.

HT: Razib Khan

PS. You probably notice that the list of deluded denialists on top is dominated by those on the right. Of course the left is not entirely free of these sorts of delusions. Some progressives deny that building more houses will increase housing affordability. Some environmentalists deny that nuclear power plants (and yes even Chernobyl) are good for the environment. Some progressive education advocates deny that charter schools have improved education. Some left-wingers deny that gender and racial differences in earnings almost entirely reflect productivity differences, not discrimination. Some progressives deny that BLM riots help to elective conservative politicians. In any tribe, there will always be some people who deny truths that they find unpalatable.

PPS. Every day brings more evidence that America is a banana republic. This isn’t the country I grew up in (although there are some parallels with polarization and violence in the Jim Crow southern states):

How about a non-binding secret ballot, after the official vote?

At least that’s what GOP congresswoman Mary Miller says:

“Hitler was right on one thing, that whoever has the youth has the future. Our children are being propagandized,” Miller said.

I’d use the phrase “influences the youth”, not “has”. Anyone who has had children knows that grownups never “have the youth”.

But Miller is certainly 100% right that “Our children are being propagandized”.

(BTW, Imagine being educated in such a way that Hitler was the only philosopher you could think of when looking for a “the youth are our future” type quote.)

Speaking of our youth, younger members of the GOP death cult seem to have adopted Trump nihilism:

Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) was captured on video refusing to wear a mask when offered one as lawmakers sheltered in a crowded conference room during the dramatic Wednesday attack on the U.S. Capitol by supporters of President Donald Trump.

In the video released by Punchbowl News, Mullin is seen standing, maskless, with newly elected Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), a follower of the conspiracy theory QAnon who was condemned by House leadership for racist remarks during her campaign, also unmasked. Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Del.), masked herself, offers the two surgical masks. . . .

Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-N.J.) announced Monday that, “Following the events of Wednesday, including sheltering with several colleagues who refused to wear masks, I decided to take a Covid test. I have tested positive.” It’s not clear whether Watson Coleman sheltered in the same location as Mullin.

Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) announced early Tuesday that she, too, had tested positive.

“I just received a positive COVID-19 test result after being locked down in a secured room at the Capitol where several Republicans not only cruelly refused to wear a mask but recklessly mocked colleagues and staff who offered them one,” Jayapal said in a statement.

Representative Coleman is a 75-year old cancer surviror.

And people ask me why I’m not a Republican.

PS. Tyler Cowen discusses the question of whether Twitter should have banned Trump. FWIW, here are my views:

1. I think they had the right to do so, and I oppose government regulation of Twitter.

2. I think it was unwise to do so, although it may be in their financial interest to do so (mostly because it would boost employee morale.) Overall, however, I think it’s better that Twitter also presents the President’s views, no matter how reprehensible. He does represent nearly 40% of the US public. Let’s debate Trumpism right out in the open.

3. More broadly, woke “cancel culture” has played a significant part in the rise of Trumpism. And last Wednesday will make the left even more self-righteous. Leftists might be surprised to learn how often conservatives cite cancel culture as a factor pushing them to the right. Thus Twitter is actually strengthening the right by this decision.

4. Although Twitter’s decision has nothing to do with the 1st Amendment per se, among average people it increases the perception that those in positions of responsibility are supposed to ban hate speech. Over time, that view will bleed over into cases that threaten the 1st Amendment. I predict that we will eventually end up losing the right to engage in “hate speech”, something that has already happened in Europe.

Of course losing the legal right to engage in hate speech is no great loss, but losing the right to engage in “hate speech” is a very great loss. I hope I’m wrong, but I suspect that the 1st Amendment will be rendered meaningless within a few decades. Freedom of speech will only apply to government approved speech.

Bob Hetzel has a new Mercatus paper that discusses the Fed’s new “flexible average inflation targeting” policy regime. He worries they may eventually overshoot to excessively high inflation. I’m less worried (medium term), but agree with his conclusion:

The newly announced strategy commits the FOMC to expansionary monetary policy to lower the unemployment rate to its lowest sustainable level as indicated by a persistence of inflation above the long-run 2 percent target. The announced strategy, however, leaves vague how the FOMC will then return inflation to the 2 percent target. One possible way to ensure the long-run discipline required to maintain price stability would be to accompany the policy with a long-run path for the price level.

I see level targeting as a way of permanently ending the longstanding and counterproductive debate between hawks and doves.

On another topic, David Beckworth has a new podcast where he interviews me on what I call the “Princeton School” of macroeconomics, by which I mean the work done by Krugman, Bernanke, Woodford, Eggertsson and Svensson back in the late 1990s and early 2000s. I see Krugman’s 1998 paper as perhaps the most important macro paper of the past 40 years, providing the best framework for understanding 21st century monetary policy. I plan to write a paper on this topic, and as usual I’ll have a slightly unconventional take on the subject.

PS. I also have a new piece in The Hill, which criticizes our response to Covid-19.

At least I think that’s what Republican Congressman Peter Meijer is saying in this Reason magazine interview:

And then one of the saddest things is I had colleagues who, when it came time to recognize reality and vote to certify Arizona and Pennsylvania in the Electoral College, they knew in their heart of hearts that they should’ve voted to certify, but some had legitimate concerns about the safety of their families. They felt that that vote would put their families in danger.

Really? You heard that?

Yeah.

Wow. That’s pretty striking.

Please let me know if I misunderstood his point. If I’m wrong, please tell me exactly what Meijer is suggesting.

Back in 2016, when I did multiple posts (here and here) warning that America was becoming a banana republic, many of my long time commenters said the idea was ridiculous. So what do I know?

This caught my eye:

“Many members of the House community were in protective isolation in room located in a large committee hearing space,” physician Brian Monahan said in a statement. “During this time, individuals may have been exposed to another occupant with coronavirus infection.“

While Monahan’s statement didn’t specify which room, one video showed dozens of people sheltered in place a committee room in the as a mob of President Donald Trump’s supporters stormed into the Capitol, forcing their way into the House and Senate chambers, lawmakers’ offices, and other areas.

Lots of congressmen and women, some of them quite elderly, packed in a conference room. What could go wrong?

This:

The video showed Delaware Democrat Lisa Blunt Rochester offering masks to a group of Republicans, including Representatives Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Andy Biggs of Arizona, who refused to cover their faces.

The GOP has become a sort of death cult.

PS: And how about this:

A bizarre tweet from the Arizona Republican Party on Monday asked whether supporters would sacrifice their lives for President Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election results.

The official account quote-tweeted a “Stop the Steal” right-wing activist who said he was “willing to give up my life for this fight” and added: “He is. Are you?”

These people are sick.