Enough of this ****, let’s try liberalism
Since they kicked out the Jews and the Moors, Spain has “enjoyed” 500 years of illiberal policies, from both the left and the right. Now there are some signs that Spanish voters are beginning to get tired of failure, tired of 21% unemployment:
As Spain’s rising political star, Albert Rivera has charmed many Spaniards with his easy-going manner and his critique of the political establishment. His pro-market agenda is also reassuring bond investors.
Having overtaken the anti-austerity group Podemos in polls for the first time this month, Rivera’s Ciudadanos party is likely to be kingmaker after an election in December. Whether he opts to support Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s People’s Party or the main opposition Socialists, investors are just happy it’s Rivera who holds the key.
. . .
Ciudadanos went national last December with Rivera announcing he would be running for prime minister six months later. Since then, the 35-year-old lawyer has become inescapable for Spaniards, debating policy on news shows, talking family life on morning TV and discussing his fashion choices in style magazines.
Four national surveys released in October showed Ciudadanos in third place and one placed the group in a statistical tie with the traditional parties. The most recent, Telecinco’s poll of 1,800 people published Tuesday put Ciudadanos at 18 percent with the PP at 27 percent and the Socialists at 24 percent.
With neither Rajoy’s PP nor the Socialists within reach of an outright majority, that would make Rivera’s party the go-to option to support the next government. Podemos, the ally of Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras that led in one January poll, dropped to fourth place with 16 percent.“Having Rivera play this role would be seen as a positive by the market,” said Geoffrey Minne, an economist at ING Bank in Brussels. “His party is coming with a pro-business program, a willingness to improve transparency in government and tackle the issue of labor market duality.”
Staying Sensible
Campaigning on a platform of “sensible change,” Rivera combines pro-market measures with socially liberal views. His party wants to cut taxes, simplify the sales tax and reduce duplication at regional government level. But he’s also advocated legalizing prostitution, investing in innovation and modernizing the education system.
By blurring the lines between conservative and progressive ideas, Rivera is attracting support from traditional supporters of both the PP and the Socialists and can seal alliances with both groups. According to a Metroscopia opinion poll published Oct. 11, Rivera has the highest approval rating among Spanish politicians.
With Spain set to move beyond the two-party system that has controlled parliament for the past three decades, Rivera’s ability to draw support from across Spain’s polarized political map could be his biggest asset.
Let me anticipate the inevitable complaints from the usual grouchy commenters who are lacking in imagination:
1. Yes, Ciudadanos is not a purist libertarian party, those sorts of parties have no chance in Europe, or anywhere else in the world for that matter.
2. Yes, they will only be the junior party in a coalition, and powerful special interest groups will prevent many of their proposed reforms from being enacted.
But I’d rather focus on the positive. Finally, Spain is considering liberalism, and the appeal seems to be strongest among the young. This is surely a good sign for the future. If they join up with the right they are likely to get at least some of their economic reforms enacted. And if they join with the left they should be able to enact some of their social agenda.
In my view the most important characteristic of Ciudadanos is not its position on this or that issue, but rather it’s strong opposition to Spain’s culture of corruption, its culture of crony capitalism.
PS. By encouraging Syriza to reject the EU bailout in a referendum, Krugman, Stiglitz and Sachs greatly helped Ciudadanos, by discrediting Podemos. Thank you.