Hamilton argues that we face an adverse technology shock
In a recent post, James Hamilton argues that even if a stimulus package were to substantially boost nominal spending, the paralysis in our financial system would prevent an increase in real output, and we would instead end up with stagflation. I do think there is a grain of truth in this argument, and more than a grain if considering fiscal projects that call for resources to be quickly reallocated. Hamilton may be too pessimistic about the potential of monetary policy, however. (Interestingly, we end up with similar views on stimulus policy–(3% inflation targeting in his case), but I am more optimistic about what that can achieve. Here’s two reasons why: