Updates on previous posts

1.  In this previous post, I was skeptical of the claim that the opioid epidemic was caused by poverty, citing the extremely high rates of opioid abuse in highly prosperous New Hampshire:

So what makes New Hampshire so special?  Why so many deaths of despair? Perhaps because it has arguably the most successful economy in the entire world, with extremely high income, high education and extremely low rates of poverty.

Tyler Cowen links to a new NBER study by Christopher Ruhm that is also skeptical of the view that poverty causes “deaths of despair”:

The contribution of economic factors is even less when accounting for plausible selection on unobservables, with even a small amount of remaining confounding factors being sufficient to entirely eliminate the relationship. These results suggest that the “deaths of despair” framing, while provocative, is unlikely to explain the main sources of the fatal drug epidemic and that efforts to improve economic conditions in distressed locations, while desirable for other reasons, are not likely to yield significant reductions in drug mortality.

2.  In numerous previous posts I suggested that Trump was utterly incompetent.  I was told that my rhetoric was unwise, as it would prevent me from having a job in the Trump administration.  That was amusing on so many levels, starting with the fact that I wouldn’t want any government job, even if my ideal candidate had been elected President.  But now we find out that thinking Trump is an idiot, moron, or immature child is practically a requirement for working in the Trump administration.  A new book written by someone who spent months hanging around the White House confirms that almost 100% of staffers have exactly the same view of Trump that I do:

Author Michael Wolff said Friday that ‘100 percent of the people around’ President Donald Trump question his intelligence and fitness for office, with some calling him a ‘moron’ and an ‘idiot.’

Even Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump, the president’s son-in-law and elder daughter, both of whom are senior White House advisers, have moved out of the way to let the bus roll over the former Trump Organization executive, Wolff said.

‘They all say he is like a child. And what they mean by that is he has a need for immediate gratification. It’s all about him,’ Wolff told ‘Today’ on Friday. ‘They say he’s a moron, an idiot.’

I can already hear some people crying fake news, and that I should rely on Breitbart, not the New York Times or Wall Street Journal.  But here’s the problem.  Steve Bannon was one of those trashing Trump in this book, and he has not denied the comments attributed to him.  And again, the author says that these views are virtually unanimous within the White House.  In fact, DC reporters have known this for months, as they are able to talk to the staff off the record.  But many Trump supporters are still in denial, unwilling to face up to the fact that our President is completely unqualified for the job.

3.  Now the good news.  I’ve often suggested that Presidents have far less power than people assume, and that events tend to follow the “zeitgeist”, or the prevailing mood in the country.  That’s why Obamacare was not repealed, and it explains why Trump has not been very consequential, despite his obvious personal flaws. Again, Tyler links to a post that points to this distinction:

How is one to think of a president who is unfit for office in his rhetoric and presentation yet mainstream in his policies and actions?

I speak, of course, of Donald Trump.  Who doesn’t?  As an impossibility come true, the president offers a cosmic riddle to any analyst worth his salt.

There’s no riddle here at all; the mistake is to think that US presidents have a big impact on policy.  They don’t.  Judging the quality of a President by how the country is doing is like judging the quality of my blogging by looking at how monetary policy is doing.  And that’s really good news.  All you need to do is look at a country like Venezuela to see what happens when Presidents are hugely consequential.  We don’t want that here.

The one possible exception is foreign policy, where Presidents might be influential, in certain cases.  But even there I don’t really expect much change.  Rather the problem is that Trump’s recklessness makes a miscalculation with countries such as North Korea slightly more likely.

4.  I also suggested that Trump was a racist, and the new book provides evidence for that.  For instance, in private conversation Trump defends people who join the KKK.

And then there’s this:

As Durbin explained how deal would impact ppl from Haiti, Trump said, “Haiti? Why do we want people from Haiti here?” Then they got Africa. ‘Why do we want these people from all these shithole countries here? We should have more people from places like Norway.”

Actually, many African immigrants have done quite well in America.  Maybe we should focus on the characteristics of the immigrants, and not the color of their skin.  (And yes, let’s be real, Trump did not have in mind African immigrants like former Fed vice-chair Stanley Fischer–he’s talking about race.)

Update:  When Trump says he wants Norwegians like my grandmother and not people from “shitholes”, like Haitian immigrant and Utah GOP Congresswoman Mia Love:

he’s implicitly suggesting that dark skinned people are inferior.  Mia Love was not impressed.  Seems the GOP to trying to move from being a 2% black party to being a 0.02% black party.

Now we are beginning to discover why Trump was so obsessed with proving that Obama was not born in the US.

But hey, libertarians in my comment section say everything’s fine because the big corporations got a tax cut.


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24 Responses to “Updates on previous posts”

  1. Gravatar of Benjamin Cole Benjamin Cole
    12. January 2018 at 02:55

    OT but a tad on Trump: The Hong Kong Hang Seng is up 5% this year and 43% YOY.

    If China is on the edge of collapse, they are clueless in Hong Kong.

    That said, many Hong Kongers are appalled at President Xi’s political “leadership” and growing domination and vice-grip on all things China. This guy Xi makes Trump looks like a Peter Pan Creampuff.

    Xi’s words and thoughts are being written into the China Constitution.

    I expect the lone insult we can expect not to happen is Trump’s words being immortalized in the US Constitution. Although Trump may propose as much.

  2. Gravatar of Ol’ George Ol' George
    12. January 2018 at 04:29

    Before Europeans arrived in Africa, blacks were literally eating each other.

    The Brits (mainly, but not solely) put a stop to this.

    Then they left, and now the blacks are back at it.

    The logical conclusion would be that we need to import them by the millions.

  3. Gravatar of Patrick R. Sullivan Patrick R. Sullivan
    12. January 2018 at 07:58

    ‘But hey, libertarians in my comment section say everything’s fine because the big corporations got a tax cut.’

    Like the CEO of Wal-Mart, who just announced a 10% increase in pay for his workforce, along with bonuses of up to $1,000, because of the tax cut?

    Rather a nice example of ‘tax incidence’ for the econ profs to use in their classrooms, I’d say.

  4. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    12. January 2018 at 08:19

    Ben, Yup, the China collapse keeps getting delayed.

    Patrick, The corporate tax cut is good, but that doesn’t negate the fact that the President is a disgrace.

  5. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    12. January 2018 at 09:27

    George. The Europeans? Those would be the people who murdered millions of Africans in the Congo, and tens of millions of each other in concentration camps during the 20th century. Wonderful people.

  6. Gravatar of SG SG
    12. January 2018 at 10:40

    Scott,

    I know you’re EXTREMELY reluctant to ban commenters, but I really believe that “Ol’ George” deserves it. I don’t come here for the neo Nazis.

  7. Gravatar of ChacoKevy ChacoKevy
    12. January 2018 at 13:18

    @Patrick If you get to connect that announcement to the tax cut, then I get to connect the 63 Sam’s Club store closures and 11,000 layoffs to it as well.

  8. Gravatar of Tom Brown Tom Brown
    12. January 2018 at 13:47

    Love it! That’s what I come here for: seeing Scott’s responses to the responses to his posts.

    This is a good book on one subject brought up here BTW:
    https://www.amazon.com/King-Leopolds-Ghost-Heroism-Colonial/dp/0618001905

  9. Gravatar of poorlando poorlando
    12. January 2018 at 21:06

    ChacoKevy, what is the logical connection between the tax cut and store closures? With the bonuses, benefits and pay increases, the reasoning is simple: Walmart gets to keep more of its revenue, and has decided to distribute some of that money to its employees. Also, Patrick did not just make a post hoc propter hoc fallacy, since Walmart’s CEO explicitly made the connection between the tax cut and wage raises himself: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/walmart-raises-wages-bonuses-after-gop-tax-cut/

  10. Gravatar of bill billson bill billson
    13. January 2018 at 12:08

    Horrible comments by Mr Cole. Does better on
    the Grannis’ “The Censor” website.

    SG, you use the term NAZI very liberally.

    SS, most of us understand what The Donald meant
    which was an economic rather than a race comment.
    Too many Leftist and yourself are offended by plain
    old english.

    Mr Summers, are you aware that LBJ referred to black
    Americans as N*ggers; and Truman call Jews K*tes!

    Stop being a drama queen.

  11. Gravatar of bill billson bill billson
    13. January 2018 at 12:14

    Hear is another reason to stop or limit
    human imports.

    http://freebeacon.com/issues/report-majority-of-illegal-immigrant-households-on-welfare/

  12. Gravatar of Ol’ George Ol' George
    13. January 2018 at 13:55

    Funny how nobody’s dying to move to Africa, yet the entire third world claims a right to move en masse to Europe (and its offshoots).

    I remember economists saying something about “revealed preferences”.

    Now try harder, Scotty.

  13. Gravatar of ChacoKevy ChacoKevy
    13. January 2018 at 15:19

    It was snark, sorry. I’m saying there is no connection; it’s all PR. The announcement to thank the tax cut for the bonuses is silly, just as my comment was.
    I know what you’re saying, and I’m open to it. The problem is that so far, the only firms that have made these 1K bonus offers are firms trying to change the subject from their own negative PR. Walmart and its store closures, Wells Fargo and their fraudulent accounts, AT&T and net neutrality.

  14. Gravatar of Emerich Emerich
    13. January 2018 at 15:48

    I think the reason Obamacare was not repealed has less to do with the Zeitgeist and more to do with the fact that it’s next-to-impossible to repeal any subsidy once it’s in place. Vide Mancur Olson.

  15. Gravatar of Mark Mark
    13. January 2018 at 18:08

    “he’s implicitly suggesting that dark skinned people are inferior.”
    No, he isn’t. He mentioned Asians (not just Norwegians), who (on average) have darker skin than the average Mexicans.

    It was a bad comment in and of itself, I don’t see why you feel the need to impute other things not in evidence to make it seem worse. Stick to what’s actually there.

  16. Gravatar of Benjamin Cole Benjamin Cole
    13. January 2018 at 19:06

    My take on reading lots of blogs and media etc. is that in establishment GOP circles, Trump has been rehabilitated from being a Russian Stooge into being an Economic Savior.

    Trump can say whatever he wants. He did not get the US militarily out of the Mideast, the F-35 and similar boondoggles are continuing unabated, Trump is not building a wall to keep out cheap labor, he is not trying detente with Russia anymore, he gave tax cuts to the best-off. Trump is appointing right-wing hack judges (instead of left-wing hack judges). Bannon is out.

    John Cochrane, who previously was so acutely concerned about national deficits (the fiscal theory of the price level), likes the Trump tax cuts (which will expand the national deficit). Running surpluses in flush times, the business cycle and all of that? Who cares?

    The GOP will not impeach Trump.

    So Trump can do the vulgar vaudeville act for another three years.

    Strangely, Bush jr., a very pleasant fellow, was a much worse president. The costs of the Afghanistan and Iraq wars is north of $6 trillion, the carnage unspeakable, and the results appear counterproductive, and we are still not clear of those entanglements. The financial system collapsed under Bush jr. GM want bankrupt. It was awful.

    So, Trump is Trump, and for the establishment GOP, he is very serviceable. And we have had worse presidents, and in recent memory.

    Maybe Oprah is on deck. She would be another interesting president.

  17. Gravatar of Don Don
    13. January 2018 at 19:33

    I read a report that opioid surge was directed at rural communities, because the network selling the drug did not want to compete with urban drug dealers (who are lethally protective of their turf). The rural communities kind of correlate with poverty. There is also the rule that Medicaid plays in providing cheap drugs (the quick solution) to people of modest means.

  18. Gravatar of anon/portly anon/portly
    14. January 2018 at 09:13

    Is it too late to re-name the GD book something like _Fire and Fury: Monetary Policy in the Great Depression_?

    https://www.npr.org/2018/01/10/577163254/author-of-the-other-fire-and-fury-book-says-business-is-booming

  19. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    14. January 2018 at 16:39

    “he’s implicitly suggesting that dark skinned people are inferior.”
    On a referendum to let in more people from shithole countries, how do you think American negroes will vote?

    Also, the fact you mention Haiti and not El Salvador (even though there are far more El Salvadorans affected by TPS) proves that the central divide in America will always be Black v. nonBlack.

    “Now we are beginning to discover why Trump was so obsessed with proving that Obama was not born in the US.”
    Yeah; where was his father born? Not in the Carolinas.

    As usual, Scott, you are a pawn of the media. When Trump (on the record) says something genuinely offensive to immigrants, you shrug. When the media makes a brouhaha of Trump (not even being recorded!) pointing out an obvious truth, you whine and make up completely wrong conclusions.

    Black dysfunctionality is real, Sumner. And it’s not going away no matter how hard you try to criminalize noticing it.

    “For instance, in private conversation Trump defends people who join the KKK.”

    What’s with your obsession with what you imagine Trump to have said, rather than what’s on the record?

    “All you need to do is look at a country like Venezuela to see what happens when Presidents are hugely consequential. We don’t want that here.”

    I do.

    I have see no evidence to suggest Trump has said anything negative about the character of American negroes themselves. I have noticed a substantial amount of anti-foreign bias coming from Trump. When will everything to you stop being about American negroes?

  20. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    14. January 2018 at 16:41

    BTW, if Trump is somehow uniquely unfit for the presidency, explain how he won.

  21. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    14. January 2018 at 16:51

    Trump can say whatever he wants. He did not get the US militarily out of the Mideast, the F-35 and similar boondoggles are continuing unabated, Trump is not building a wall to keep out cheap labor, he is not trying detente with Russia anymore, he gave tax cuts to the best-off. Trump is appointing right-wing hack judges (instead of left-wing hack judges). Bannon is out.

    Perfect summary.

  22. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    14. January 2018 at 16:54

    Those would be the people who murdered millions of Africans in the Congo, and tens of millions of each other in concentration camps during the 20th century. Wonderful people.

    The difference is not the amount of killing, but how it was accomplished. And in both the circumstances you cite, the Europeans did their killing with tools that could only have been built by a high civilization -theirs.

  23. Gravatar of Well….damn Well....damn
    14. January 2018 at 22:43

    E. Harding is a nut.

  24. Gravatar of Tom Brown Tom Brown
    15. January 2018 at 08:40

    Interesting read by Patterico at RedState:
    https://www.redstate.com/patterico/2018/01/14/two-real-problems-donald-trumps-shtholes-comment/

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