Is the euro crisis real or nominal?
The answer is both. But I think the nominal aspect may be greater than people realize. First let me concede that there are severe real problems in the heart of the eurozone. Here is Wolfgang Munchau:
What is the size of the problem? International Monetary Fund estimates suggest that the eurozone is well behind the US in terms of writing off bad assets. I have heard credible reports suggesting that the underlying situation of the German Landesbanken is even worse than those estimates suggest. Last year, a story made the rounds in Germany, according to which a worst-case estimate would require write-offs in the region of €800bn – about a third of Germany’s annual GDP. If you were to add this to Germany’s public debt, you might jump to the conclusion that Greece should bail out Germany, not the other way round. While that is probably a little exaggerated, there are serious questions about whether the eurozone is still in a position to issue such massive guarantees. So, given what happened to those subprime CDOs, what hypothetical rating should we then attach to that €440bn eurozone SPV? A triple A?
By they way, I found this in an excellent Arnold Kling post, which also links to a rather astounding aspect of our new health care bill.
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