An even greater achievement
Tyler Cowen recently linked to this tweet:
Topol describes this as a great achievement, and he’s right. (My wife used to work in vaccine development, so I’m well aware of how long this usually takes.) At the same time, I can’t help thinking that the following would have been an even greater achievement, one that would have saved the lives of 100,000 Americans and also prevented many small business bankruptcies. (Yes, Trump would have been re-elected, but that’s a price worth paying):
Mar 16: Moderna phase 1/2/3 challenge trial begins.
May 2: Pfizer/BioNtech phase 1/2/3 challenge trial begins.
July 14: Moderna phase 1/2/3 published in NEJM.
July 31: FDA approves Moderna vaccine.
August 12: Pfizer/BioNtech phase 1/2/3 published in Nature.
August 31: FDA approves Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine.
PS. Tyler also linked to an article on the developer of Novavax’s promising new vaccine candidate, created by a team led by Nita Patel:
Patel has come a long way from her beginnings in Sojitra, a farming village in India’s Gujarat state. There, when she was 4 years old, her family fell into poverty after her father nearly died from tuberculosis (TB). He never worked again and told Patel she should become a doctor and find a cure.
Patel set about doing that, wearing the same ragged dress to school day after day. She had no shoes. She begged bus fare from a neighbor—at whose house she also devoured the newspaper because her family couldn’t afford a subscription.
Her academic excellence propelled her through college on government scholarships. She later picked up two master’s degrees, in India and the United States, in applied microbiology and biotechnology.
Moderna’s Pfizer’s vaccine was developed by the children of Muslim immigrants to Germany, and this one by an immigrant from a “shithole country”. Funny how things work out.
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29. November 2020 at 15:53
Under this model I’d still think we would have to do mostly natural herd immunity as I don’t think most age groups should take a vaccine without long term testing but human trials would give you enough data to vaccinate 10% of your population or the people at highest risks of severe consequences.
29. November 2020 at 15:55
It’s a cold virus, sniffle sniffle
29. November 2020 at 16:28
From what I read, China has already innoculated one million people, and they say successfully.
There seems little interest in this in the West.
China’s macroeconomic policies also appear to work. Again, no one in the West seems to care to find out why.
I loath, detest and revile the CCP, but is there nothing to learn from China results?
29. November 2020 at 18:05
Sean, Even if you just gave the vaccine to people over 70, you’d have saved around 75,000 lives. And I’d certainly volunteer to take a vaccine that went through a 3 month trial with 30,000 people. Yeah there’s a tiny risk, but far more risk in getting Covid.
29. November 2020 at 18:53
Scott,
it is a great achievement. As for faster options, there is always a risk trade-off. We wouldn’t want to find ourselves in a “28 days later” world.
Benjamin Cole,
the day has come when I finally agree with a comment of yours. Let me add one more. China also went through 2008 with much less of a bumpy ride than the West.
30. November 2020 at 01:55
Trump did not cause businesses to go bankrupt.
Covid did not cause businesses to go bankrupt.
Sumner, and his communist apparatchiks handing down mandates promulgated business closure and destroyed businesses. Communists, not freedom lovers, forced those businesses closed. Communists like Scott sumner are the true evil.
End unconstitutional mandates.
30. November 2020 at 02:23
“He’s right because my wife used to work in vaccine development.”
Is Sumner really this stupid? What an idiotic statement. My goodness, lol.
Sumner = Retard. He’s not stupid. That would be too nice. No, he is officially retarded. According to his insane logic the writer is only correct because his wife had preciously worked on vaccines. Its hilarious. This is the type of idiot that proposes policy. Seriously? “But wife said it was true”.
You only have vaccines because of operation warp speed. It was a government led effort.
You have failing businesses in some states because you have corrupt dictators posing as govenors in those states.
Just remember folks: sumner is paid by the ccp, so you really just have to laugh at his attacks on freedom and liberty. according to Sumner logic, when the ccp slaps a 150% tariff on Australian wine the australians should just “take it like men” watch their industry die off and not retaliate because the CCP is hurting themselves. The logic is baffling. Don’t believe his CCP nonsense.
Stand for liberty and freedom. Stand for truth. Expose the communists and freedom haters like Sumner.
30. November 2020 at 02:27
Yeah, I think we know all this information without Sumners wifes approval. Its publicly available.
But thank you for informing all of us that your wife approves. After reading 50 years of public data her approval just means everything to us
🙂 🙂
30. November 2020 at 02:46
They are “shithole” countries.
Sometimes the truth hurts.
But it doesn’t make it any less true.
You obviously have spent very little time living abroad. You may have traveled abroad. But you certainly have not spent much time there.
Try living in the Philippines, or Mexico, or Saudi for a decade. Tell me how you feel afterwards.
Like so many others you will have horror stories. There is a reason those people want to come here.
Although, now they probably don’t. Considering the country is being overrun by Sumners communist party.
30. November 2020 at 02:52
for people interested in truth
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/11/the_covid_case_con_continues.html
30. November 2020 at 05:50
Does a president and his administration deserve ANY credit for this? Particularly when one of its leaders —Fauci——denied it was possible until late 2021. And to be more optimistic than that meant “idiot’.
I find the Briand Hopkins study interesting. On the surface, it appears wrong. CDC publishes excess deaths (overstated because it uses 5 year average when it should use expected 2020 numbers) which appear in fact to be excess. However, Briand appears to use individual causes of deaths (with a detailed analysis of heart disease). Since she does not try to show what CDC is doing wrong, she is saying implicitly when you sum the individual causes they are less than the CDC totals—although she does not state it explicitly—a problem obviously
Further, she points out something which has been obvious since the beginning——although I don’t know what to make of it. The proportion of people, for example, at all age groups who die are the same as they have always been—-with statistical significance.
She claims we should expect older people to have a higher proportion of deaths versus history not just higher number of deaths. That kind of sounds plausible—-but it is not explained why it should be the case.
But I admit, it does seem like a plug number——-every age group has same proportion of deaths
Most interestingly, I thought, is Hopkins was so anxious to get rid of the study——they did not say why she was wrong. I could—-but only indirectly—-because her numbers are not complete—-but Not sure if CDC numbers are either.
We will not hear from them again—and if Briand is valid—she needs to do better
30. November 2020 at 09:27
mbka, Well, we might find ourselves in a 280 day later world, and we’re still screwed. But that won’t stop me from taking the vaccine. In any case, the 28 day later argument doesn’t really apply to those over 80, who are very at risk from dying of Covid. The benefits would have greatly exceeded the small risk for that group. And they would not have even been taking the vaccine until about 4 months after the test—August vs April.
Xu, Trump supported lockdowns back in March and April.
Henry, Without government regulations it would have gone much faster. You communists always think the government can run the economy best.
Michael, You said:
“And to be more optimistic than that meant “idiot’.”
Back in March I expected the vaccine development to go faster than usual; it wasn’t hard to predict. I suspect the stock market also understood this, which is why it held up well. It took two days to development the vaccine, and a month to manufacture it. The rest is testing, which can easily be shortened via regulatory changes.
I do think the government promise to buy large quantities of the vaccine helped, but of course any other government would have done the same in this sort of emergency. It’s a no-brainer.
It would be like asking if we should give George Bush “credit” for beefing up our anti-terrorism effort after 9/11. Give him credit if you want–I don’t care. But would any other president have done differently?
Should we also give Trump credit for discouraging testing? How about for discouraging social distancing? How about for mocking people who wear masks? How about for promoting unproven cures?
30. November 2020 at 09:43
All communist sumner/biden supporters should live in the commie states. Biden can represent you.
Freedom lovers will live in free states. Trump will represent us.
After a few years of 60% tax, blm nut jobs burning your cities down, and living on communes we will let your desperate starving bodies come back. But there is one precondition to coming back: you have to be in a bodybag.
Does that sound good? We’re ready to split whenever you are.
30. November 2020 at 10:24
libtard commies getting nervous.
Powell and Wood released the kraken.
Legislatures moving to throw weight behind liberty and freedom
Truth over lies.
Trump 2020.
30. November 2020 at 10:46
Govt cannot ever be trusted.
“For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places.”
30. November 2020 at 11:31
Just for fun, Rinat. When Obama was elected in 2008 (or maybe reelected in 2012) some disappointed Texans began petition to secede. It quickly gained signatories, mostly from Massachusetts.
30. November 2020 at 13:19
The french people will never yield to sumners communist propaganda. Our protests are 1M strong.
There will be no reset Sumner. Tell the CCP they will lose.
30. November 2020 at 15:50
Will Scott ‘CCP’ Sumner now recognize he’s a total and complete failure, and his propaganda is never going to convince millions of freedom loving patriots to capitulate to the CCP.
He was proven wrong again here:
https://twitter.com/TheLeadCNN/status/1333539332330643456
Of course Trump has been saying this for the last ten months. Sumner has denied it. Now that CNN also agrees with the Trump administration will Sumner finally apologize for his idiocy? Probably not. After all, he’s Scott “CCP” Sumner.
30. November 2020 at 16:22
Antibody responses are easier to measure and easier to show a direct effect (neutralization) but any immunology textbook will point out that T-cells are primarily responsible for protection against viruses. It’s safe to assume there is a T-cell response because it is an mRNA vaccine and proteins will traffic from inside the cell to outside. But still the antibody obsession is annoying as is the lack of T-cell response data. This is 2020 we shouldn’t be limited to 1970s immune response tools.
Your challenge timeline leaves out challenge development (route, dosing, link to natural disease). Those could be shorter studies due to no vaccine/boost needed but you lose a month or two.
If I get to pick my vaccine, I will probably go with a multi-protein vaccine to generate more targets for the T-cell response and better potential cross-reactivity.
30. November 2020 at 16:36
Scott,
We’ve had this topic before, I think they have the phases for a reason. One year is already extremely fast and they have already combined phase 1 and phase 2. You can also add phase 3, but then the division into phases makes no sense anymore. Challenge trials were not done, I think we have already discussed the rationale for this, no benefit was seen.
Whether a whole year was too long for the corona vaccine developement (in terms of trade-offs) can of course be discussed. I tend to agree with you that they could have taken even more risks.
But I assume they have thought this through. I read two or three interviews with Sahin in which he praises the current control mechanisms, he would not have developed the vaccine faster, he is satisfied with the supervision and the current rules. That surprised me, maybe he was just being polite and diplomatic, but I don’t think he is lying.
Let’s not forget that there have been problems with vaccines like Pandemrix for example, which has caused narcolepsy in children in rare cases. Such a side effect on a large scale and the reputation of vaccines is damaged forever. There are already enough covidiots and anti-vaxxers.
Let’s also not forget that mRNA vaccines are completely new, so new side effects are not yet completely off the table. So maybe they have taken more than enough risks already. We have no long-term data at all.
mbka,
I don’t understand your comment about 28 Days Later, as far as I remember the cause of the zombies is a virus, which is more than unrealistic enough, and a vaccine doesn’t even seem to play a role in the whole movie. This reminds me how bad this movie is. In this genre World War Z seems to better, at least vaccines play an important role in this movie, albeit in an unrealistic way.
But let’s go down that road, let’s assume theoretically that such a zombie virus could exist, then your argument should have been that they need to develop the vaccine even faster. In such a scenario, everything is off-limits. There would be no more phases, they would try to vaccinate as many humans as fast as possible; provided, of course, that there is no collapse of civilization that would make vaccine production almost impossible, no more laboratories, no more experts, no more know-how.
Or do you think a vaccine could cause an infectious disease? This is even more unrealistic than anything we have discussed so far. It just doesn’t work. With vaccines we should be afraid of autoimmune diseases, but these are not contagious.
Scott,
I think you mean Biontech/Pfizer.
I find the narrative of “Muslim” migrants in this context absurd and extremely difficult. It only copies the thinking and narrative of nationalists and religious fanatics.
Furthermore, nobody would write that a “Christian” researcher has developed a vaccine, simply because religion plays no role at all in this area.
If one wanted to create a narrative, one should write that he is a Kurd, a minority that is extremely ill-treated in Turkey and therefore often emigrates, combined with the narrative that the education of his son was very important to his parents; combined with the narrative that maybe the even more important researcher in the background is his wife, daughter of a surgeon, and here too the parents conveyed to their daughter very early on that education is important.
30. November 2020 at 16:42
Another sad day for the democrat communists.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/smartest-man-room-just-joined-sidney-powells-team
30. November 2020 at 17:51
Note sumner ends this post with this:
“Moderna’s vaccine was developed by the children of Muslim immigrants to Germany, and this one by an immigrant from a “shithole country”. Funny how things work out.”
What is his premise revealed by this? What is the conclusion he drives towards with this? why is it even relevant, or is its irrelevance wholly the point?
Why are the children being begot of muslims relevant? Why the parents’ immigration status? Why the end of the genealogical inquiry ends just one level up?
is okkum’s razor satified with the realization that sumner is a charlatan, fool, fraudster, grifter, tendentious mountebank?
30. November 2020 at 21:49
Christian,
my 20 days later comments was about releasing a biologically active agent prematurely and having a world wide disaster as a result. In the story, they use a virus as a vector for a cancer treatment, that vector turns evil and spreads. My point wasn’t about combating the spread of that virus, it was about releasing something biological that was not fully tested. My nightmare “28 days later” Covid scenario is to have 2 billion people vaccinated with an mRNA vaccine that leads to widespread autoimmune disease 10 years later, e.g. MS or your pick of a autoimmunity generated neurodegenerative disease. In 2 billion people. Not to say it’s likely. But autoimmune responses seem to be common in mRNA vaccines.
On Scott’s wording about “Muslim immigrants” and your retort about values and your narrative. Your narrative is of course what really happens to the vast majority of immigrants, Muslim or otherwise, they integrate and some become highly successful. And that was the point too of Scott’s pointed remark.
30. November 2020 at 23:23
“28 days later” … fast fingers.
1. December 2020 at 06:20
agrippa,
According to the leaks, when Trump called Haiti and some African countries “shithole countries,” it was in the context of asking why we would accept immigrants from those countries instead of Norway.
On a strictly technical basis, I don’t think Trump was specifically talking about India, and Scott wouldn’t reason from a single data point in his professional life, but it’s close enough to dunk on Trump a little bit. (And Scott’s been clear that if you don’t want to read him dunking on Trump, you might want to stick to EconLog).
1. December 2020 at 09:58
https://wethepeopleconvention.org/articles/WTPC-Urges-Limited-Martial-Law
“Against all enemies foreign and domestic”.
Domestic includes Scott Sumner and his Communist Party.
1. December 2020 at 10:18
Xu, That CNN story confirms what I’ve been saying about China.
Christian, I guess you aren’t aware of how lots of American and German nationalists feel about Muslim immigration, and immigration from “shithole” countries.
1. December 2020 at 11:35
The communist news network (CNN) just got nailed for pushing their communist agenda.
https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1333780118041407488
1. December 2020 at 13:53
Trump never said “Muslim” countries are shithole countries. There are 12 countries on the shithole list, and 11 of them happen to be majority muslim.
But if you read, which I know is extremely difficult for you, you will see that he did not ban folks from the two largest Muslim countries – Malaysia, and Indonesia. Nor did he ban folks from Saudi, Jordan and many more. That’s because those countries have NORMAL people who don’t advocate a brand of extremism.
On the other hand, if one cannot accurately trace the background record of a person in “shitholes” like nigeria, sudan, and somalia — and yes they are shitholes in every way imaginable, then one should not take the risk of allowing them in the country.
When you stop earning small 100K salaries, and start earning a million per year and are able to travel to these “shitholes” you will also call them “shitholes”. The fact that you are poor, work for 100K, and cannot travel frequently, listen to CNN, and therefore fall into the peanut gallery idiot list is not our problem.
Trump did the right thing. The govt is corrupt. The people are almost all engaged in illict activity. They work for gangs. They have to. Because there is no other jobs available. And many of them want to harm US citizens.
The streets are trash bins. There is poop on the streets. It is a mega shit hole.
Americans don’t want random people coming here. We want doctors, scientists, and those willing to WORK for a living.
The USA is also becoming a shithole, but that is another matter.
We want to import good people. Not bad people. And if you don’t know if the person is bad or good, because there are no records, or records can be forged easily — and they can in “shitholes”, then you must not allow any of them in.
1. December 2020 at 14:00
It’s not just a matter of “WORK”, it is also a matter of sharing our values.
Values rooted in inalienable rights, and lockian concepts of universality.
Most of them don’t.
1. December 2020 at 14:56
Half of these comments are probably from the same person.
1. December 2020 at 16:41
Skeptical,
“Half of these comments are probably from the same person.”
Or the same Russian troll bot.
1. December 2020 at 16:59
skeptical: does that include your comment, or half your brain?
1. December 2020 at 18:21
https://twitter.com/Rothbard1776/status/1333843601340698628
One courageous man talks about these new socialist freaks, and how they remind him of Fidel’s band of losers.
BLM Marxists should be shot in the streets and bodies burned. They’re disgusting.
1. December 2020 at 18:31
We should pay academics more than we do.
On their tiny, and I do mean super tiny, 100K a year salary they simply have no clue about the world they live in. Every academic should be forced to visit shit hole countries, and perhaps live there for a bit. Experience true corruption, and lawlessness.
Keeping up with the joneses or “conspicuous consumption” has turned into a real problem. And social media amplifies that. Academics like Sumner feel inferior on their tiny little salaries and failed careers: hence, they resort to being puppets for lobbyists or worse, the CCP.
Everyone knows communism doesn’t work. Yet, Sumner still promotes it.
1. December 2020 at 19:06
Hey, look its Sumner’s alma mater.
https://twitter.com/Vermeullarmine/status/1333531589184253956
The University of Chicago stands up for free speech in the face of the BLM Marxists. Will Sumner now publicly disavow Communism and BLM once and for all? We are waiting with bated breath.
1. December 2020 at 20:54
Bob you have to understand that these people spend their entire lives teaching for one/two hours a day, and sitting behind a desk for the rest of it.
They have no concept of what a Visa is. Most of them have never been to an embassy in their life.
You have to make it super simple for them:
1. When you travel abroad you first need to acquire a tourist, investor, or business visa, unless the country has a visa on arrival agreement (usually only valid for tourists).
2. When you apply for this visa the officer will ask you questions and conduct a background examination.
3. If you are not a criminal or have suspicious paperwork, then they will let you into their country for a certain amount of days.
4. If you are are a criminal, or if they suspect you might be, then they will not.
In “Shitholes” like Somalia, the U.S. embassy officer — or any embassy officer from any country — cannot conduct an appropriate background check. There is no way for them to know if the person coming to the USA is a dude just wanting to travel to Miami, party and bang white girls (all okay), or if it’s a crazy lunatic.
If you cannot tell the difference, then it is best NOT to let any of them in. This is the purpose of the ban. And it makes sense.
Hopefully, that is simple enough for the “never travelers” to grasp.
1. December 2020 at 21:11
I’m very aware of their incompetence Xu. There are far too many diploma mills in this country, and academia has descended into activism. That is why it’s important to stand up to these Marxists now before it is too late.
While businessmen are moving markets, they destroy markets with bad ideas and bad polices. And the majority of them are puppets for lobbyists. The research is mostly awful.
There are some brilliant academics: Dershowitz, Chomsky, Peterson, Shiva, etc. But most are not brilliant. They have very average IQ’s and they work at low IQ, no-name, schools. After realizing their mistake, and find themselves miserable, they blame their problems on capitalism. They vilify the businessman because he has a “tangible skill” that provides VALUE to others.
1. December 2020 at 21:34
I agree. 20% (probably more in 2020) of US academics identify as Marxist.
They clearly haven’t read the Gulag Archipelago, or spent any time at all reading history.
IT DOESN”T WORK!
I don’t really know if Sumner is a Marxist, but I love giving him a hard time over his very socialist policies. He also describes himself as a libertarian/utilitarian, which is comical. Libertarianism is rooted in Kantian precepts of Universality, whereas Bentham is all about relative morality.
That contradiction in his political views just makes him a total clown.
I highly suggest he sticks to economics. Although, I do enjoy the laughter.
1. December 2020 at 21:43
Globalist policies!
Sumner believes in shipping jobs abroad until CCP has all of our jobs, and we are slaves.
That is his position.
He still believes in the myth of Ricardo.
The guy has learned NOTHING over the last thirty years.
1. December 2020 at 21:58
He’s a commie!
He is in love with the Biden/Harris communist regime.
He believes in unconstitutional mandates.
He believes in locking down the economy because the virus has a fatality rate of less than 1%. It’s milder than the flu.
He supports the CCP
He supports the Klaus Schwabs great reset.
He watches the communist news network (CNN)
He publicly supported the BLM commies when they were burning down cities.
He is a cancer to our republic. Don’t get soft Xu. You know it. I know it. We all know it. He is a commie, and he’s working for the CCP.
1. December 2020 at 22:53
CCP Sumner wrote a blog post about how he was 100% sure China was telling the truth. He said the ccp numbers were real. Trump and Pompeo were simply making up lies.
10 months later when CNN says the same thing as the trump administration he finally agrees.
If Pompeo said there were 50 states, Sumner would say he is lying.
He’s a partisan hack, and CCP funded lobbyist, that moonlights as an academic/blogger.
2. December 2020 at 00:31
https://mobile.twitter.com/BobbyPiton
This is what happens when you speak out against the communists. Mathematician gets canceled for speaking out; crying woke twitter employee terminates his account.
Sumner supports this. Sumner is complicit. Therefore Sumner is the enemy of liberty.
Civil War now brewing between freedom lovers and totalitarian communists. Lin Wood and Powell big press conference tomorrow at 2pm in GA. Insurrection Act?
2. December 2020 at 00:39
That is infuriating. So this mathematician gives compelling testimony at an Arizona congressional hearing, then his Twitter account is permanently suspended for simply giving his “expert opinion”.
And keep in mind that he’s a real mathematician, not an economist pretending to be a mathematician. For some reason or other economists nowadays think they are part of the hard sciences. I can only assume it’s the result of an “inferiority complex” – all too common in the social sciences.
2. December 2020 at 01:35
https://twitter.com/CNNPR/status/1325255738013306880
CNN wants all Americans to forget and forgive.
We won’t forget. We won’t bond. And we won’t forgive. We don’t compromise with Communists.
Civil War II
Patriot Leaders
Lin Wood
Sidney Powell
General Flynn
85% of Military and Special forces
Communist Leaders
Academic communists (Mega wussies)
Antifa (Definitely wussies)
BLM Marxists (Primarily Wussies)
15% of military and brainwashed CNN losers.
I like our chances.
Is anyone ready yet? Let’s get it on.
2. December 2020 at 08:03
@Skeptical and mbka:
Every comment from xu/henry/rinat/sarah/bob/harry/etc are without question from the same poster. It’s not even trying to hide that. And yes it might be a bot.
2. December 2020 at 08:55
msgkings, I hope you are correct. It’d be hilarious if Trumpistas were so obsessed with their cause that they went to the trouble of attacking an obscure money blog with a bot.
2. December 2020 at 10:49
Skeptical, mbka, msgkings,
I agree that it is the same person. They all showed up here at the same time, all of a sudden out of nowhere.
They always write about the same topic, no matter what the blog entry is about. They write in the same style, at about the same times. Even their names are all written in the same uncreative way.
Scott or his “technician” could easily see this from the IP addresses.
In any case it makes the blog very difficult to read.
Not to mention that it is annoying.
Not to mention that I want my title back as the blog’s dumbest commentator. =)
2. December 2020 at 11:47
Let’s run with vaccines, otherwise herd immunity will become evident and we’ll not be able to say governments “saved lives”.
2. December 2020 at 14:03
@Jose:
Vaccines are the best, fastest, easiest, safest way to get herd immunity.
3. December 2020 at 07:17
I noticed an interesting stat. CDC says 80,000 died of flu in 2018. This year, they stopped counting—-or so it seems—-at about 6800. Flu deaths are “with and without Covid and Pneumonia”
I am pretty sure few people can explain what the CDC is doing with their “counting”
3. December 2020 at 08:58
Michael, You are an inexhaustible source of conspiracy theories.
3. December 2020 at 10:27
@ssumner:
Conspiracists never run out. Everything is connected after all.
6. December 2020 at 09:57
@msgkings
Yeah, but if you already have heard immunity there is no need for a vaccine (or pay for it). Meanwhile, let’s SLOW DOWN natural herd immunity progress. I wonder why we should do that.