Tate Lacey has a interesting piece over at Alt-M, which suggests that the new Fed vice chair might be amenable to NGDPLT:

Clarida now seems predisposed to three views about monetary policy that could significantly influence the Fed’s actions going forward:

1. That a central bank fully committed to reaching a nominal target is superior to one focused on mechanical operations.

2. That employing forward guidance is indeed an effective tool for conducting monetary policy.

3. That level targeting can make up for past errors in monetary policy in a way that growth rate targeting cannot.

Combined, I think these views point to Clarida being more amenable to a nominal GDP target than even he may presently admit. After all, nominal GDP level targeting requires two things of a central bank to work in practice: first a central bank must credibly pledge to keep nominal GDP growing along a stable trend line and then it must be prepared to do whatever is necessary to achieve that level of nominal growth.

Clarida has already expressed the importance of both of these elements. In addition, he has repeatedly shown a willingness to let his thinking evolve when presented with new information. Therefore, he may yet be persuaded on the shortcomings of price level targeting in favor of a superior option.

Lacey acknowledges that this is speculative, but he is right to emphasize these aspects of Richard Clarida’s thinking on monetary policy.

This is also important, and it’s the step that many modern central banks are reluctant to take:

However, the second, subtle point in his framework that should not be ignored is that Clarida recommends the central bank fully commit to an outcome rather than announce various mechanical steps.

PS.  The Hypermind NGDP contract for 2017-2018 just completed and growth came in at 4.8%. I was given the following information:

362 traders participated in this contest, and 224 (62%) made a virtual profit. This means 224 contest winners have earned a share anywhere from $4 to $1,038 from the $35,000 prize pool.

The 2018-19 NGDP futures contract is trading at 4.5%, which suggests to me that policy may be a tad too expansionary, but is still basically on course.

The market price has not been very volatile, which is perhaps disappointing if the market is viewed as a scientific experiment, but very positive if viewed as a technique for making NGDP more stable.

A quick follow-up to my previous post on Japan.  Leaving the sleek, attractive, courteous, efficient Narita Airport and arriving into messy, rude, chaotic, disorganized LAX is a real slap in the face.  My favorite part is when the airlines give you a customs form to fill out while still on the airplane.  After landing, you never show the customs form to anyone.  I guess they view it as a way for passengers to pass the time, sort of like doing Suduko.  On the other hand, south Orange County seems like paradise after visiting Japanese cities full of small houses, concrete buildings and power lines.  It’s really hard to compare America and Japan, as they have such different strengths and weaknesses.

I don’t have a lot of travel tips, as most people have different interests from me.  For instance, on the train to Narita airport I saw people staring at their cell phones.  I spent the time looking out the window, and enjoyed the view as much if not more than 90% of the films that I have seen.  I enjoy seeing the amazing variety of architecture in Tokyo, especially the stuff that reminds me of the 1960s.

During the final part of our trip we visited some less urban areas.  Two places stood out.  We spent 3 days on the Izu peninsula at a onsen (hot springs hotel)  near Kawazu, but I could see spending another month exploring the region.  (Of course I’ll never go back, just as I’ll never go back to all the other places I told myself I’d return to someday and see in more depth.)

Another highlight was the onsen at Takaragawa (in Gunma).  The hotel is rated 4 stars, but in reality is pretty delapidated.  Nonetheless, it’s well worth visiting due to the spectacular outdoor hot spring baths.  In the past, hotel customers could bathe with a black bear.  That’s no longer allowed, but they still do serve bear soup.

I do plan to go back to Japan someday, as it remains my favorite country.

PS. One of my favorite sights was the vending machines selling cigarettes and alcohol:

The machines also sell some 9% alcohol drinks. Indeed Japan has a huge vending machine industry, with an amazing variety of products.

PPS.  I also appreciate that Japan doesn’t accept the “cultural appropriation” insanity of the SJWs.  The Japanese view it as a compliment when Kay Perry dresses up in a kimono.  What is wrong with this country?

They also have lack America’s bizarre obsession with the safety of children.  I don’t have the article, but I recall reading a North Ridgeville, Ohio newspaper that reported an 8th grade school trip to DC was recently cancelled because school officials were worried about “terrorism”.  Not any specific terrorist threat, but just terrorism in general.  Tyler Cowen recently reported that Penn State was cancelling a student group that did outings to wilderness areas.

What’s happened to this country?  When I was young a whacky TV personality named Pat Paulson ran for President as a joke.  Back then, Americans were smart enough to realize that you don’t actually elect someone President who is running as a prank.

Reality is increasingly resembling the Onion newspaper.