Breathing Room?
A recent FT article encapsulates everything I don’t like about how the press is covering monetary policy. Or perhaps it is actually showing what I don’t like about monetary policy itself. You decide:
The US Federal Reserve is roughly halfway through completing its planned purchases of mortgage and Treasury debt, which constitutes its quantitative easing programme, writes Michael Mackenzie.
. . .
The Fed’s buying has not prevented either Treasury yields or mortgage rates from rising, complicating efforts to provide relief for homeowners and other long-term borrowers.. . .
The recent rise in rates, which accelerated in early June, sparked expectations among some bond traders that the Fed would increase its planned purchases of US Treasuries.
In March the Fed announced its target of buying $300bn in Treasuries and also raised its planned purchases of mortgages from $500bn to $1,250bn and doubled its planned agency buying to $200bn.
The scope of the Fed’s QE programme has aroused concerns it will nurture higher inflation and debase the currency. At its June policy meeting, the Fed stuck to its QE targets and said it would “continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets”.
With long-term rates having eased back and recent Treasury auctions attracting strong foreign buying, the central bank has some breathing room for now, say analysts. Should credit conditions deteriorate later this year or the economy’s recovery falter, the Fed may step up its purchases of Treasury debt.
One problem is that the FT doesn’t really seem all that interested in whether the Fed is actually engaged in QE. I recently mentioned that in the first half of 2009 the monetary base declined at near record rates. A few commenters pointed out, probably correctly, that the Fed wasn’t actually engaged in QE, but rather was trying to influence mortgage rates. That’s fine, but the press can’t have it both ways. If it’s not QE, don’t say it is. And if you’re telling your readers the Fed is engaged in QE, at least check the monetary base numbers to see if it actually has done any QE in the first half of 2009.