Send in the clowns

Italy’s Five Star Movement was founded by a clown.  Now they have been elected to govern all of Italy.  Here are some of their views:

An alliance between Five Star and the League has long been considered the most destabilising outcome to the eurozone of the election because both parties have attacked EU fiscal rules, banking regulations, trade deals and sanctions against Russia.

Notice that there’s no real ideology there, other than always taking the “irresponsible” position, no matter what the issue.  It would be like if America were to elect a buffoon who had no discernible ideology other than being irresponsible.  Someone who opposed responsible conservative policies like slowing the growth in entitlements and a smaller deficit, but also opposed responsible progressive policies like the Paris Accord or the Iran deal.  And also opposed responsible centrist polices, such as speaking out against Putin and enacting trade agreements like TPP. Someone who’s only ideology was to be irresponsible. Thank God we are not Italy.

Meanwhile, The Economist had an interesting piece on Germany:

A cultural divide is opening up between urban regions and more conservative suburban and rural areas. “Cities like Munich, Cologne and Berlin now have more in common with each other than with their own hinterlands,” says Michael Bröning, author of a new book on nationhood. And rising crime rates and cultural battles like the one in Essen are making society feel more raw. On New Year’s Eve 2015 in Cologne some 1,000 women were sexually assaulted by a crowd made up largely of immigrants. A year later an Islamist terrorist from Tunisia drove a hijacked truck into a Christmas market in Berlin, killing 12. The titles of recent books and films—“Nervous Republic”, “Fear for Germany”, “The End of Germany”—capture the public mood at its gloomiest.

This raises a host of issues.  First of all, notice the similarity to America, where Dallas, Houston and Atlanta vote Democratic and the surrounding areas are quite conservative.  Also notice that the anti-immigrant feeling is strongest in the areas that have the fewest immigrants.  Recall the massive support for Trump in West Virginia, which attracts almost no immigrants and benefits from trade with China.  And notice that Germany has a booming manufacturing sector and a trade surplus, so the economic factors that supposedly drove support for Trump (which I doubt actually did) are not in play in Germany.  I suspect that the increase in nationalism in Germany is occurring for the same reason as in Russia, India, Turkey, China, Hungary and dozens of other countries, and has almost nothing to do with the factors that we are told are pushing America toward right-wing populist authoritarianism.  I have no idea what those factors are, indeed I’ve never even seen a plausible theory.  BTW, if you want a better insight into the Trump phenomenon, then read this excellent article on the Modi phenomenon in India.  The parallels are eerie. The bad news is that if I’m right, Trump is likely to be re-elected.  (But my track record on political predictions is—spotty.)

PS.  George Will takes the gloves off in the Washington Post, making a good case that Pence is even worse than Trump (a view I would have thought ridiculous a few months ago.)

And people think I have TDS!

PPS.  At the other extreme from George Will is Conrad Black, who suggests that Trump was an honest businessman, and who describes his marriage to Melania as being free of stormy weather:

The relationship has apparently lasted smoothly for nearly 20 years

This piece somehow made it into the National Review.  Do magazines still have editors?


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12 Responses to “Send in the clowns”

  1. Gravatar of Doug M Doug M
    11. May 2018 at 14:14

    When voters feel disillusioned, that their politicians have been bought, that they don’t have a voice, then the options are to find better candidates, withdraw from politics, or blow it up.

    Blowing it up seems to be the popular option these days.

  2. Gravatar of Christian List Christian List
    11. May 2018 at 14:25


    I have no idea what those factors are, indeed I’ve never even seen a plausible theory.

    You must be really blinded by your ideology then. Some factors are even named in the Economist piece you linked to. It must be really obvious when even The Economist sees it:


    On New Year’s Eve 2015 in Cologne some 1,000 women were sexually assaulted by a crowd made up largely of immigrants. A year later an Islamist terrorist from Tunisia drove a hijacked truck into a Christmas market in Berlin, killing 12.

    The biggest single reason is the huge influx of refugees and asylum-seekers, which peaked in the summer of 2015. Mrs Merkel famously vowed to keep Germany’s borders open to hundreds of thousands of newcomers, though later she tightened up the rules. In 2015 and 2016 a total of 1.2m people arrived, a significant addition to the population of 81m.

  3. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    11. May 2018 at 16:58

    Doug, Voters have felt that way my entire life.

    Christian, So why is the nationalist right least popular in those areas impacted by immigrants?

    And why is the crime rate in Germany falling sharply?

    And why is the exact same thing happening in lots of countries where immigration is not an issue?

  4. Gravatar of Christian List Christian List
    11. May 2018 at 17:52

    Scott,


    So why is the nationalist right least popular in those areas impacted by immigrants?

    I know this is a very popular meme, “question”, and “mystery”. Frankly I never got it. Imagine region A where 30-50% of the voters got a certain migration background compared to region B where the migration background of voters is less than 10%. And now the “question” is why an anti-migration party gets more votes in region B???


    And why is the crime rate in Germany falling sharply?

    People get less and less tolerant of crimes, I guess. But to my knowledge the “crime rate” is pretty flat in Germany since around 1990. It rose between 2005-2016 in some important fields, now politicians and journalists say it fell last year. Falling is easier when you have risen before.


    And why is the exact same thing happening in lots of countries where immigration is not an issue?

    I simply doubt that it’s the exact same thing. There seem to be different forces at play. But migration is a big issue in most Western countries. Just ask the voters who voted for certain parties. You can also ask the parties themselves and read their party programs. It’s really easy and no mystery at all.

  5. Gravatar of Plato’s Revenge Plato’s Revenge
    12. May 2018 at 02:47

    Xenophobia is the fear of foreigners. You know that a threat tends to cause more fear than the phenomenon you fear itself. Once the bad thing happens, and the world doesn’t immediately end, we tend to cope. So xenophobia in regions which haven’t (yet) received ‘their share’ of immigrants doesn’t falsify the theory

    (Of course, xenophobia may still be stupid, and in my view mainly is so, but its *distribution* is not unexpected)

    The German crime statistic is just a point in case why we hate the media (if we do). It’s deeply dishonest reporting. Not only is the crime statistics ‘massaged’ because it’s so sensitive to the population, so overlaid with so much noise (drawn from non-violent crime) — reproters also fail to mention that after all manipulation, it’s just come down slightly after a steep increase the years before. And somehow it’s not comme il faut to mention the huge proportion in certain very sensitive categories (like rape) of young men of North-African origin

  6. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    12. May 2018 at 12:01

    Christian, I’m afraid your data is wrong.

    1. Even non-migrant voters are more liberal in big cities.

    2. German crime fell to the lowest levels in decades, so it can’t be attributed to a spike in 2016.

    http://www.dw.com/en/germany-crime-rate-drops-but-fear-rises/a-43692277

    Plato, There was no steep increase in the years before. Nice try.

  7. Gravatar of Benny Lava Benny Lava
    13. May 2018 at 05:24

    Scott here is my explanation:

    Based on conversations with Europeans and with Americans it is my assessment that the younger generation was made permanently poorer. They graduated from college, got low paying jobs, and muddled on. Or they didn’t go to college and didn’t work at all. And all the ways that their parents were middle class has eluded the children. And now the parents, after blaming their children for years, have started looking around and finally realized that this situation is fairly common. And so they are looking for a new answer. And the new answer is to blame the order that helped China become middle class and offers a shortcut to the middle class life to newcomers. I’m not saying they are right but I understand the sentiment.

  8. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    13. May 2018 at 07:37

    Benny, So why is the same thing happening all over the world. The middle class is doing fine in India, China, Turkey, etc. What about Hungary and Poland?

  9. Gravatar of Benny Lava Benny Lava
    13. May 2018 at 07:51

    What about Hungary and Poland? How are the youth faring there? It is a huge problem in places like Egypt and Libya. The issue is unemployed and underemployed youths.

    Sometimes, though, I feel like the problem with economics is that no one trained economists to read graphs properly but that’s another discussion…

  10. Gravatar of Christian List Christian List
    13. May 2018 at 16:25


    Even non-migrant voters are more liberal in big cities.

    I still don’t get what you find so noteworthy about all this. It’s like saying “The sun rises in the East”.


    German crime fell to the lowest levels in decades, so it can’t be attributed to a spike in 2016.

    Security is all about trust, Scott. And trust that was really damaged in the last years.

    Cherry picking facts or quoting those little liked public broadcasters won’t change much about that. From my experience it makes things only worse.

    I really wonder how trust can be regained but I don’t see an easy solutions. Trust can only be regained when politicians are willing to solve the problems at hand. So far they aren’t even noticing a lot of problems. And it’s not so uncommon that they are making things even worse.

    I think they are quite some precise examples that even you would agree with. For example the German pension scheme (basically a ponzi scheme). Or the article that even you brought up how IS fighters are welcomed back in the EU. Even you said after that: “Are you kidding me, that can’t be real?!” — But unfortunately it was very real.


    So why is the same thing happening all over the world.

    I don’t buy the middle class theory for a second. Maybe the question is wrong. Maybe the development is easier to understand when you see skepticism towards other groups as the default and the status quo identity politics brouhaha as the exception.

    (But notice that even identity politics is still about groups fighting for power, so it’s basically old wine in new bottles).

  11. Gravatar of robert robert
    14. May 2018 at 10:07

    For a country that brings in more immigrants than any other country, it would seem that the US is not pro-immigrant. I do believe that there is a push back against disenfranchisement of the native population by providing money & government services to the immigrants. Also, it is not clear what the cost-benefit analysis of varying degrees of immigration. As far as Europe, there is an issue of tyranny and bad economics. Was there a vote to bring in the migrants? Was it decided by fiat? It is the same with the Iran deal. These things are better if explained and decision was reached. It almost feels that they are protected because the ruling class was able to impose it on the population.

    Lastly, there is the issue of propaganda. The major media companies and technology companies have a parochial point of view. It seems that they feel they need to teach and mold the people instead of inform them. It gets tiring like TV commercials.

    As far as professors and the university, there is an issue of corruption, both in terms of the costs as well as the quality of product produced. The universities have become unionized utilities who select the employees based on the existing employees view of the new applicants political beliefs. Also, why are young people subsidizing research?

    Lastly, it may be the case, the risk of loss is felt more strongly than the potential for gain. The benefits of the a new world order, which get divided in a hierarchical structure, are not as appealing as the potential to lose your pension and have to find a job where all your prior qualification do not matter. Quick question, how many professors would be happy losing their current jobs, finding a new job in a completely different field without a pension and with a 20% pay cut?

    Also, many Latin American countries absolutely do not want the United States involved in how their governments are run. What is the appropriate number of US citizens that should be allowed to vote in Mexican elections? 1; 2; 10; 500,000; 1,000,000; 10,000,000? In the same regard, what is the appropriate number of Mexican citizens that should be allowed to vote in US elections? Just a thought experiment.

    Are there any economic differences that can be attributed to culture? Is assuming no cultural differences a valid assumption?

  12. Gravatar of Tom Brown Tom Brown
    16. May 2018 at 10:11

    Good post.

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