Actual RGDP growth: minus 1.0%
Mark Sadowski’s initial forecast: minus 1.4%
Initial Consensus: PLUS 1.0% to 1.5% (depending on source)
NGDP came in at 0.3%, slightly below Mark’s 0.5%. I don’t have the consensus, but it must be around 3.0%
In the 4th quarter of 2013 the consensus RGDP growth rate was around 3.8% or 3.9%. Mark forecast 2.5% and the actual was 2.6%. Mark forecast 4.2% NGDP growth, and the actual was 4.2% NGDP growth.
I can only find one other Sadowski GDP forecast, for the second quarter of 2013. The consensus called for 1.0% RGDP growth, Mark forecast 2.0%, and the actual was 2.5%.
If he’s not snapped up by an investment bank in the next 30 days I am going to have to revise my views on the EMH. Don’t make me do that. Mark understands government data better than anyone I’ve ever met.
PS. I notice that the fall in NGDI was entirely due to a collapse of corporate profits, which fell 10% in the first quarter (from the previous quarter.) That’s an annual rate of decline of 34.4%!! Does anyone know the explanation for that? Was it measurement error? Does it comport with the numbers being reported on Wall Street?