The “leave” campaign was built on lies
The leave campaign to force Brexit was built on a set of lies, such as the claim that leaving the EU would free up 350 million pounds a week for the NHS. This was an imaginary number pulled out of thin air, as virtually everyone now agrees. There will be little or no benefit to the UK Treasury.
Today another lie was exposed. Leave campaigners like Boris Johnson assured us that the UK would remain within the EU single market. Theresa May has now admitted that it will be a hard Brexit, with Britain leaving the single market as well as the EU customs union. Of course there is talk of setting up new trade arrangements (which I applaud), but that’s all very speculative.
It’s no surprise that the campaign was based on lies, that’s standard operating procedure for right-wing nationalist/populist campaigns. Trump did exactly the same. Here is a typical Trump lie:
“The EU was formed, partially, to beat the United States on trade, OK?” he asked rhetorically. “I don’t really care whether it’s separate or together.”
And here’s what really happened:
After World War II, the United States and its allies attempted to create a new world — one defined by rules and order, in which such a devastating war could never happen again.
Do you recall those dystopian novels where they postulate a history where the US lost WWII, and is a colony of Germany and Japan? I feel sort of like we’ve entered one of those, where a Russian agent has become President of the United States:
Donald Trump just lobbed a grenade into the normally staid world of European-American diplomacy, using a joint interview with two of Europe’s biggest newspapers to call NATO “obsolete,” predict that the European Union would fall apart and announce that the US wouldn’t really care if it did, and threaten to potentially start a trade war with Germany over BMW’s plans to build a manufacturing plant in Mexico. . . .
Bashing NATO and the European Union, and alienating Germany, is a plan for tearing apart US relations with the EU — for weakening the agreements that underpin America’s status as the sole superpower and that maintain peace on the European continent.
It also means that Trump is talking about radically reshaping US foreign policy in a way that would significantly boost Putin’s influence while leaving America’s allies scrambling to figure out where they stand and how much they can trust in the future stability of an international system that has brought unprecedented economic strength and stability to the continent for decades.
“What Trump proposes is [American] geopolitical suicide,” Daniel Nexon, a professor at Georgetown who studies great power politics, writes at the Lawyers, Guns, and Money blog. “Make no mistake: you should be very worried right now.”
The article then points out how Trump is undermining the economic, political and military agreements that have led to the best period of world history since 1945. It concludes with this warning.
There is only country that benefits from all of these moves: Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
Putin’s fundamental foreign policy goal is to restore Russia’s place as one of the world’s most powerful and influential nations. To do so, he wants to restore global politics to the way it was in the 19th century — when European countries saw each other as rivals rather than partners. This kind of “balance of power” world order would allow Russia to divide European powers by forming selective partnerships with some against the others — thus restoring Russian greatness.
Putin’s Russia is too weak, in political and military terms, to accomplish this on its own. The logical end point of Trump’s stated policies, regardless of whether that’s what he intends, is a fractured Europe that would be far less capable of standing up to Putin.
“Every [foreign policy] position Trump takes, starting from total ignorance around [a] year ago, is on Putin’s wish list,” Garry Kasparov, the Russian chess master and dissident, tweets. “Brexit, Ukraine, NATO, EU, Merkel.”
Trump’s stated policy ideas, if implemented, would have the effect of accomplishing much of what Putin has dreamed of, but that the Russian leader may have never have thought possible.
Now, with Trump taking office in a few days, it all seems very frighteningly real. Trump is proposing isolating America from its allies, and isolating these allies from each other. The only power that benefits is Russia, perhaps America’s most significant strategic rival. There is a country that Trump may soon make great again. The problem is that it’s not the US.
We now live in a bizarre alternate reality where Merkel is treated like an enemy and Putin is treated like a friend. Is this what Americans were voting for? On the other hand, you can’t say voters weren’t warned.
Remember those people who said Trump’s campaign was just an act, and that he’d be “Presidential” after the election? Trump may not be a Russian secret agent, but he is sure doing a good job or impersonating one. Some people say that maybe Trump is smarter than the rest of us. Maybe he has a secret plan to fix what’s wrong with the world. Yeah, that’s possible. But it’s also possible that he’s exactly what he seems, a complete lunatic.
PS. Here’s Tyler Cowen:
A willingness to think things through from scratch is in some ways admirable, but dangerous in matters of foreign policy and nuclear weapons, where predictability is at a premium.
Also dangerous when tinkering with the pro-trade consensus that has served the world so well since 1945.
PPS. I’m now going on record predicting that Trump’s promise to abolish Obamacare will be exposed as a lie, within 12 months. I also don’t expect to get the tax cut he promised me.