Another “bad hombre” being deported

From the Detroit Free Press:

His wife, Cindy Garcia, cried out while his daughter, Soleil, 15, sobbed into Garcia’s shoulder as they hugged. Two U.S. immigration agents kept a close watch nearby.

After 30 years of living in the U.S, Garcia, a 39-year-old Lincoln Park landscaper, was deported on the Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. holiday from metro Detroit to Mexico, a move supporters say was another example of immigrants being unfairly targeted under the Trump administration.

Jorge Garcia was brought to the U.S. by an undocumented family member when he was 10 years old. Today he has a wife and two children, all of whom are U.S. citizens.

Remember when Trump said he was going to focus on the “bad hombres”?

His supporters say he has no criminal record — not even a traffic ticket — and pays taxes every year. . . .

Garcia is too old to qualify for DACA, which allows the children of undocumented immigrants to legally work and study in the U.S.

A question for restrictionists.  How about a person who came to America illegally at age 2, and was 93 years old.  Assume no criminal record.  Should she be deported?  If so, why?  If not, why should this guy be deported?

“It’s heartbreaking,” Bonesatti said. “If you’re going to pick someone who’s ideal,” he would be it. . . .

Moreover, Mexico is a foreign place to Garcia.

But at least Trump is reducing regulations on coal companies that want to poison our air and water, so everything’s fine.

PS.  I’m guessing that the truly bad hombres don’t dutifully report to the immigration authorities like this guy did:

She said that when her husband reported to ICE in November as part of a regular check-in, he was informed that he had to leave the U.S. and would be detained immediately.

PPS.  Over at Econlog I have a new post on the war on drugs:

As a candidate, Trump promised to leave the marijuana question up to the states. In his confirmation hearings, Jeff Sessions promised not to make marijuana a priority for federal law enforcement. It turns out that all of those promises were meaningless.

PPPS.  And speaking of Trump, I don’t agree with every single charge on this NYT list, but the cumulative impact is pretty convincing.

Was the dotcom mania “mad”? (And let’s lower the relative status of pessimists)

Tim Harford has a very good piece on bubbles in the FT.  This caught my eye:

Yet even with hindsight things are not always clear. For example, I first became aware of the incipient dotcom bubble in the late 1990s, when a senior colleague told me that the upstart online bookseller Amazon.com was valued at more than every bookseller on the planet. A clearer instance of mania could scarcely be imagined.

But Amazon is worth much more today than at the height of the bubble, and comparing it with any number of booksellers now seems quaint. The dotcom bubble was mad and my colleague correctly diagnosed the lunacy, but he should still have bought and held Amazon stock.

I wish I had bought Amazon in the 1990s, just as I wish I had bought Bitcoin at $12, when I was writing posts claiming that it was not a bubble.  But I didn’t, and given what I knew at the time there was really no reason for me to do so.  But what about the claim that “the dotcom bubble was mad”?  I do recall people saying that in 2002, after the bubble had burst and the NASDAQ fell to 1200.  But is that true?

The argument made in 2002 is that tech valuations made no sense unless you believed that tech companies would push aside old stalwarts like GE, GM and Walmart, and that companies like Apple and Amazon would become the most dominant corporations on Earth.  Well, hasn’t that happened?  Another argument was that you’d have had to believe that all the dotcom companies would be successful.  Actually, if you didn’t know which ones would be successful, it would have made sense to buy an index fund in the NASDAQ.

The NASDAQ peaked at just over 5000 in early 2000, but that was for just a very brief period.  The average “mad” dotcom investor would have purchased stock at some time during 1999 or 2000, probably at a NASDAQ level closer to 3500 or 4000.  NASDAQ is now above 7200, and if you add in dividends it would not be unusual for an investor to have doubled their money over 18 years.  That’s not particularly good for a risky investment, but it’s not horrible.  It’s a higher rate of return than T-bills, but lower than T-bonds.  But keep in mind that T-bond investors lucked out, as actual NGDP growth was far less than expected when T-bonds were yielding 6%, and if people had known what was going to happen to the US economy, yields would have been far lower in 2000.  Alternatively, if NGDP had grown as expected, the NASDAQ would be far higher today.

Just to be clear, even today it seems like the tech market was a bit frothy at the peak in March 2000, I’m not denying that.  But my point is that all of these judgments are provisional.  If people really believe that markets are irrational, they ought to be writing posts in the FT talking about the negative bubble of 2002.  What were those morons thinking when they sold tech stocks when NASDAQ was at 1200?  Were they insane? Were they idiots?  Instead, pessimism is intellectually respectable so the pessimists get off scot-free, while optimists are ridiculed for being wrong.  Why?

Here’s how the FT article starts out

“Prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” That was Professor Irving Fisher in 1929, prominently reported barely a week before the most brutal stock market crash of the 20th century. He was a rich man, and the greatest economist of the age. The great crash destroyed both his finances and his reputation.

The fact that Fisher’s wrong prediction had any impact on his reputation is a sad commentary on our society.  His forecast should have attracted no more attention than his forecast as to who would win the World Series.  Would Fisher’s reputation have been damaged if he got a baseball game wrong?

And if we really should trash people for their bad calls on the market, why isn’t Robert Shiller’s reputation damaged for his claim that stocks were overpriced in 2011, when in fact it was near the beginning of one of the great bull markets in US history?  Why trash the optimists but not the pessimists?

And why aren’t the Chinese bears being called to account for all their predictions of a crash in the Chinese economy, or of 3% average real GDP growth during the decade of the 2010s?

Just to be clear, I’m not saying anyone’s reputations should be trashed.  My complaint is that other people are trashing great economists like Irving Fisher with no justification at all.

Speaking of China, remember all those predictions that it would get stuck in the middle-income trap?  Read the following from another FT story, and ask yourself how often you read those sorts of things about Turkey, Brazil or other countries that are actually stuck in the middle-income trap:

Here, too, China is catching up. Chinese internet leaders Tencent and Alibaba have a combined valuation of $1tn. Add in another $200bn or so for Baidu, JD.com and Netease plus other listed or unlisted companies, such as Toutiao, Meituan and Didi, and the scale of the Chinese market becomes apparent. Trends emerging in China are beginning to shape the future of the global tech landscape. To its dominant role in the supply chain we can now add a “demand chain” aspect to the country. . . .

Massive investments in mobile broadband and a highly competitive handset market means that nearly all of China’s approximately 750m internet users use smartphones. Payments via QR codes, led by Tencent’s WeChat and Alibaba’s Alipay, are making cash obsolete. Dockless bikes line the streets of Chinese cities. The country’s physical infrastructure — roads, high-speed trains and airports — are facilitating as big a boost to consumption as President Eisenhower’s roll out of the Interstate Highway System in the US in the 1950s.

I have lived in Beijing for more than 20 years, yet only in the past year have I felt on returning to London or Silicon Valley that I’m going backwards in time. For urban residents, China is increasingly a study in frictionless living. Hopping on a bike, ordering a meal from a huge range of restaurants, paying for utilities, transferring money to friends — all can be done at the touch of a button. Internet services in the west offer increasing convenience no doubt — but nothing beats the experience in China.

What part of “developed country” is China not going to be able to do by 2035?  Be specific.

Liberals were right about conservatives (and I was wrong)

For years, liberals used to accuse conservatives of having hidden racist motives, often in response to conservative advocacy of things like welfare reform or being tough on crime.  I thought those accusations were unfair, and even today I don’t think they are good reasons to call someone a racist.  However, because of the way that much of the conservative movement in America has rallied around Trump, I’ve now sadly concluded that many conservatives do in fact have a hidden racist agenda.

To give you a sense of how far down into the gutter our politics have descended, Fox News recently compared Trump to a racist drunk spouting off in a bar, and viewed that as a defense of the President.

After The Washington Post on Thursday afternoon first reported Trump’s remarks at a White House meeting with lawmakers, “The Five” co-host Jesse Watters shrugged off the slur as the way ordinary Americans talk about “Haiti people.”

“If it’s true, this is how the forgotten men and women in America talk at the bar,” Watters said. “This is how Trump relates to people. If you’re at a bar, and you’re from Wisconsin, and you’re thinking, ‘They’re bringing in a bunch of Haiti people, or El Salvadorians, or people from Niger.’ This is how some people talk.”

It’s sad that so many conservatives can’t understand why Trump’s remarks are a really big deal.

Another theme is that these countries really are bad places.  I don’t necessarily agree (El Salvador scores higher than Italy, Japan or South Korea on happiness rankings), but certainly all of these countries have lots of problems.  Even so, this fact has no bearing on Trump’s remarks.  Trump wasn’t just calling certain countries bad places, he was implicitly calling immigrants from those places pieces of shit.  Even a drunk in a Wisconsin bar knows what Trump meant when he said we shouldn’t be taking in immigrants from those sorts of places. He was talking about the characteristics of the individual people.  (I’ve spent at least 100 hours in Wisconsin bars listening to drunks (when I was a teenager), so I’m speaking from some experience.)  Over at Econlog I have a post showing that Indian-Americans earn more than any other ethnic group, and of course they come from a country that could have easily made the Fox News list of bad places.

PS.  Yes, Fox did not say the patron was “drunk”.  But let’s be real.  The whole point of referring to things said in a bar is to identify the things that people really think, when alcohol has removed inhibitions about being “politically correct”.  Thank God that Trump never drinks, I don’t want to even imagine him after a few martinis.

 

The increasing popularity of NGDP targeting

There seems to be an increasing groundswell of support for NGDP targeting.  At the recent AEA meetings in Philadelphia, David and Christina Romer presented a paper that endorsed the concept.  A couple days later Larry Summers touted the idea at a Brookings Conference on monetary policy.  At the same conference, Jeffrey Frankel presented this slide:

Sam Bell directed me to a copy of the Fed minutes from 1995, where Lawrence Lindsey endorsed the idea:

…one of the things we all taught in economics was that, if we have one instrument, we can only work with one target. I don’t think it necessarily follows that the target should be price inflation. I think it should be nominal GDP, and I believe that is somewhat in line with what Governor Yellen said. But once we pick nominal GDP as our objective function, it begs a second question that has to be answered. It is that a nominal GDP target probably has to be consistent with some desired level of inflation. So, having this process and having Congress tell us some desired level of inflation, I think is probably good. But our target should not be the desired level of inflation; our target should be nominal GDP.

Lindsey is a leading candidate for the position of vice chair of the Fed:

Other names linked to the position at the time include former Fed Governor Lawrence Lindsey, head of an economic advisory firm, and Mohamed El-Erian, a columnist for Bloomberg View and chief economic adviser at Allianz SE, Pimco’s parent company. Neither could be immediately reached for comment on Monday.

Unfortunately he does have one downside:

In contrast to Chairman Greenspan, Lindsey argued that the Federal Reserve had an obligation to prevent the stock market bubble from growing out of control. He argued that “the long term costs of a bubble to the economy and society are potentially great…. As in the United States in the late 1920s and Japan in the late 1980s, the case for a central bank ultimately to burst that bubble becomes overwhelming. I think it is far better that we do so while the bubble still resembles surface froth and before the bubble carries the economy to stratospheric heights.”

I don’t think you want to point to the late 1920s as an example of why central banks should pop stock market bubbles.

(In this post I discussed El-Erian.)

Here’s another interesting slide from Frankel’s presentation:

Here are a few thoughts on those three points:

i.  I believe the Fed can hit an NGDP target, or an inflation target.  The Fed also believes that, or they would not be raising interest rates right now.

ii.  I believe that people actually understand NGDP targeting better than inflation targeting.  Ask 100 people back in 2010 why the Fed was trying to raise the inflation rate.  Ask them why the Fed thought it was a good idea to raise the cost of living for American citizens at a time when they were struggling with high unemployment and heavy mortgage debt.  I bet less than 3 out of 100 could answer the question.  Then ask them why the Fed might want to raise America’s total national income during a deep recession.

iii.  I wonder if the data revision issue implies that we should be targeting something like total labor compensation.  Am I correct in assuming that this variable is revised less significantly than overall NGDP?  It might also correlate better with labor market stability.

HT:  Sam Bell, Scott Freelander, Tyler Cowen

 

Updates on previous posts

1.  In this previous post, I was skeptical of the claim that the opioid epidemic was caused by poverty, citing the extremely high rates of opioid abuse in highly prosperous New Hampshire:

So what makes New Hampshire so special?  Why so many deaths of despair? Perhaps because it has arguably the most successful economy in the entire world, with extremely high income, high education and extremely low rates of poverty.

Tyler Cowen links to a new NBER study by Christopher Ruhm that is also skeptical of the view that poverty causes “deaths of despair”:

The contribution of economic factors is even less when accounting for plausible selection on unobservables, with even a small amount of remaining confounding factors being sufficient to entirely eliminate the relationship. These results suggest that the “deaths of despair” framing, while provocative, is unlikely to explain the main sources of the fatal drug epidemic and that efforts to improve economic conditions in distressed locations, while desirable for other reasons, are not likely to yield significant reductions in drug mortality.

2.  In numerous previous posts I suggested that Trump was utterly incompetent.  I was told that my rhetoric was unwise, as it would prevent me from having a job in the Trump administration.  That was amusing on so many levels, starting with the fact that I wouldn’t want any government job, even if my ideal candidate had been elected President.  But now we find out that thinking Trump is an idiot, moron, or immature child is practically a requirement for working in the Trump administration.  A new book written by someone who spent months hanging around the White House confirms that almost 100% of staffers have exactly the same view of Trump that I do:

Author Michael Wolff said Friday that ‘100 percent of the people around’ President Donald Trump question his intelligence and fitness for office, with some calling him a ‘moron’ and an ‘idiot.’

Even Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump, the president’s son-in-law and elder daughter, both of whom are senior White House advisers, have moved out of the way to let the bus roll over the former Trump Organization executive, Wolff said.

‘They all say he is like a child. And what they mean by that is he has a need for immediate gratification. It’s all about him,’ Wolff told ‘Today’ on Friday. ‘They say he’s a moron, an idiot.’

I can already hear some people crying fake news, and that I should rely on Breitbart, not the New York Times or Wall Street Journal.  But here’s the problem.  Steve Bannon was one of those trashing Trump in this book, and he has not denied the comments attributed to him.  And again, the author says that these views are virtually unanimous within the White House.  In fact, DC reporters have known this for months, as they are able to talk to the staff off the record.  But many Trump supporters are still in denial, unwilling to face up to the fact that our President is completely unqualified for the job.

3.  Now the good news.  I’ve often suggested that Presidents have far less power than people assume, and that events tend to follow the “zeitgeist”, or the prevailing mood in the country.  That’s why Obamacare was not repealed, and it explains why Trump has not been very consequential, despite his obvious personal flaws. Again, Tyler links to a post that points to this distinction:

How is one to think of a president who is unfit for office in his rhetoric and presentation yet mainstream in his policies and actions?

I speak, of course, of Donald Trump.  Who doesn’t?  As an impossibility come true, the president offers a cosmic riddle to any analyst worth his salt.

There’s no riddle here at all; the mistake is to think that US presidents have a big impact on policy.  They don’t.  Judging the quality of a President by how the country is doing is like judging the quality of my blogging by looking at how monetary policy is doing.  And that’s really good news.  All you need to do is look at a country like Venezuela to see what happens when Presidents are hugely consequential.  We don’t want that here.

The one possible exception is foreign policy, where Presidents might be influential, in certain cases.  But even there I don’t really expect much change.  Rather the problem is that Trump’s recklessness makes a miscalculation with countries such as North Korea slightly more likely.

4.  I also suggested that Trump was a racist, and the new book provides evidence for that.  For instance, in private conversation Trump defends people who join the KKK.

And then there’s this:

As Durbin explained how deal would impact ppl from Haiti, Trump said, “Haiti? Why do we want people from Haiti here?” Then they got Africa. ‘Why do we want these people from all these shithole countries here? We should have more people from places like Norway.”

Actually, many African immigrants have done quite well in America.  Maybe we should focus on the characteristics of the immigrants, and not the color of their skin.  (And yes, let’s be real, Trump did not have in mind African immigrants like former Fed vice-chair Stanley Fischer–he’s talking about race.)

Update:  When Trump says he wants Norwegians like my grandmother and not people from “shitholes”, like Haitian immigrant and Utah GOP Congresswoman Mia Love:

he’s implicitly suggesting that dark skinned people are inferior.  Mia Love was not impressed.  Seems the GOP to trying to move from being a 2% black party to being a 0.02% black party.

Now we are beginning to discover why Trump was so obsessed with proving that Obama was not born in the US.

But hey, libertarians in my comment section say everything’s fine because the big corporations got a tax cut.