Why they hate us, part 2
In a recent post, I argued that the Chinese public has turned against the US. I also suggested that this change in attitude was largely due to our behavior. Many commenters found my claim to be preposterous.
Tyler Cowen recently linked to an NBER study by Haichao Fan, Yichuan Hu, Lixin Tang & Shang-Jin Wei with this abstract:
The US trade war against China in 2018–2019 can either enhance or diminish the US soft power in China, depending on whether it is recognized as legitimate by Chinese citizens. We study how the viewership of US movies—an important element of the US soft power—is affected by the trade war, utilizing variations across Chinese cities in the exposure to the Trump tariffs. We find a significant reduction in US movie revenue in regions more exposed to the Trump tariffs, but no corresponding reduction in the consumption of non-US movies. This is corroborated by a decline in online search for US movies, US tourist destinations, and US branded sports shoes. The aversion to US movies appears to persist at least to 2021. The effect is somewhat milder for more affluent people.
PS. Matt Yglesias directed me to this survey:
That’s far from a majority, but still . . .
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8. May 2022 at 10:00
Scott,
In a previous thread, you said the US doesn’t need to pivot and shift more military resources to Asia to counter China.
Here’s why I disagree. Time is on China’s side. You’ve been correct to point out that Russia has been a greater danger than China for a long time, but that’s short-term. China is obviously potentially a far larger risk long-term.
Hence, while we still have military advantages over China, we should use them to try to settle as many disputes in Asia, while building as much of a US-centric approach to trade and security, as possible. You might think that China could just wait us out and overpower us and whatever systems we establish later, but we would have at least established some friction for them to overcome, while providing a counter-influence to their anti-democratic agenda. Also, in the process, we would also hopefully have stronger alliances than we otherwise would.
How much more valuable would an alliance with the US be right now if we were more forcefully pushing China to recognize international law regarding territorial disputes, such as those involving the Philippines, for example? As China grows more powerful, they will presumably try to rewrite the rules, while trying to become a regional hegemon. If they become a regional hegemon, that frees them to project more power beyond their region.
8. May 2022 at 11:32
The USA always thinks in military terms – meanwhile China is building infrastructure in these countries – road, rail, ports, factories….
Oh my! Is it any wonder that the Chinese are seen as preferable partners?
8. May 2022 at 19:29
Michael, To which country would you move the resources?
9. May 2022 at 05:04
Scott,
Obviously I’m about as close to being a military expert as I am to being an open heart surgeon, but I’d say that more forces could always be moved to Thailand, the Phillipines, Guam, and Japan. The USS Carl Vinson carrier group can be shifted there quickly, as needed.
More important is that we always push the envelope with our investment in military technology so that we’re always working on the next paradigm of warfare and that we’re deploying such technology to Asia as quickly as possible.
We should not be shy about piling military pressure on China, but doing so in as non-public a way as possible, while seeking ever freer trade with them and their participation, especially in regional trade and conflict resolution arrangements. We should try to shape the future on our terms, by making war with us unthinkably expensive.
Do we have the commitment to do this? I’m doubtful, for perhaps obvious reasons. Given the course we’re on, China seems to want Taiwan much more than we want to defend it, just as is the case with Russia and Ukraine. We’ll only fight for Ukraine to the last Ukrainian.
Interestingly, the lines are being blurred between direct military involvement and material support, as more military hardware becomes autonomous, or even just remotely operated. If we give Taiwan autonomous jets one day, what’s the difference between that and having American pilots directly defend Taiwan?
9. May 2022 at 06:23
Michael, I don’t view China as a threat to those countries, and thus I see no reason to move more troops there. Why would China invade Japan, Thailand or Philippines? (Apart from a tourist invasion.)
9. May 2022 at 07:01
I’m not thinking of troops so much as naval and air resources. But, that said, much of the force build up will be akin to catastrophic insurance, as well as a deterent. It’s unlikely it’ll ever been used, if done right. It’s hoped it will never be used, but it’s necessary for us and our allies to assert our interests and shape the diplomatic landscape.
9. May 2022 at 07:06
“Obviously I’m about as close to being a military expert as I am to being an open heart surgeon, but I’d say that more forces could always be moved to Thailand, the Phillipines, Guam, and Japan.”
— But the people don’t want you there, Michael. The last time you were in Thailand and Philippines an entire industry of prostitutes, drugs, and criminals formed. The remnants of that cesspool still exists in Pattaya and Angeles City. Okinawa, or specifically NANA, which still has a military presence, is a cesspool of thugs and lowlifes. Okinawans have tried to kick you out for the last thirty years, but your military presence still harrasses them daily. The Thai’s and Filipinos got rid of you a long time ago, and they don’t want you to return. Koreans grudgingly accept your presence, because of NK, but it’s not ideal for them either.
China is the most dangerous threat to humanity since Nazi, Germany. It’s the most wealthy, most totalitarian country, that has ever existed on the face of this planet. And the United States – for the purpose of profit – is continuing to invest money in this fascistic war machine. I hope you guys wake up soon.
I could care less about Americans and their prosperity. Nobody in my country cares if you are living in mansions or teepees, but we do care if the republic collapses, because my country will suffer. We don’t have the size or resources to combat the neo-nazi chinese threat.
The best thing America can do is to focus on itself. Put America first, and stop engaging in military expansion in Europe and Asia. Most Americans do not benefit from globalization. You are simply weakening yourself, and you are starting to lose powerful allies like India and Brazil, along with most of Eastern Europe, because you bizarrely expand NATO for nor reason whatsoever, and you don’t respect people’s sovereignty.
Your politicians bribe our politicians, get tax breaks for their MNC’s through “trade deals”, destroy our very competitive local industries (because you don’t play by the same rules – no taxes), and then raise the price of the product after you have achieved a monopoly or oligopoly. This further erodes purchasing power for my people. And your do-gooder financial aid, and Bill Gates style philanthropy, which is really fake charity for personal gain, gives millions which land in the pockets of our most corrupt politicians, enabling them to hold onto power longer than they otherwise would have.
Putting America first is not “fascist”. It’s not “nationalist”. It’s the best thing you can do for yourself, and for the world. It’s time to return to being a “beacon of hope”, instead of a beacon of menace.
9. May 2022 at 07:33
Also, we should always keep the options of proliferating nuclear weapons on the table. There’s a good argument that Japan should have nuclear weapons, for example.
9. May 2022 at 07:35
Ricardo,
The US has bases in Thailand and the Philippines right now. What are you talking about? And Japan wants us out? LOL
9. May 2022 at 22:01
What’s your explanation of why Americans hate the Chinese?
10. May 2022 at 15:42
I’m curious as to why there’s interest in the relationship between real rates and stock prices. Expected NGDP growth is the macro factor that drives stock prices, period.
Low rates, nominal or real can be associated with higher or lower earnings multiples, depending on the relative balance between near-term and long-term NGDP growth.
In the US, for example, lower rates have typically been associated with temporary slowdowns in NGDP growth or recessions, with higher P/E ratios predicting economic recovery.
In Japan, in contrast, for most of the last 2 generations or so, there’s a long-term trend of low rates and lower stock prices, ultimately reflecting a lot of secular stagnation, along with central bank that sets inflation low, and hence permanently lower NGDP growth.
Both interest rates and stock prices are determined by expected nominal economic growth rates, so to examine the relationship between the two doesn’t necessarily make any sense. The standard finance model that employs real interest rates in stock valuation is simply wrong.
10. May 2022 at 17:31
Sorry, but posted this on the wrong thread.
10. May 2022 at 19:42
Mark, The base level of antipathy reflects many factors, but the recent surge probably reflects US government propaganda–especially claims that the virus was created in a Chinese lab. Yes, that’s logically unrelated to the hatred toward Asian-Americans, but prejudice is stupid. Look at the prejudice against Russian athletes right now.
15. May 2022 at 07:24
Weird Scott, changes in Chinese public opinion are solely about US actions, but changes in US public opinion somehow are never about Chinese actions.
I suspect that dumb US actions also cause Chinese public opinion to increase in dumb racist ways as well as in more reasonable reactions. In the same way, hostile Chinese actions cause US opinion to react in stupid racist ways as well as more measured negative opinions about the government.
Prejudice is indeed stupid, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine is worth condemning, but undoubtedly some of the negative feelings towards Russia have dumb, bigoted expression.
The Chinese government is guilty of many things as evil as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, so we should unfortunately expect some of that to be expressed as bigotry for the same reasons as that expressed against unrelated Russians.
None of it changes that the primary cause of poor relations in both cases are the Russian and Chinese governments. Tariffs are bad, but genocide and invasions and threats of invasions are worse. Threats of invasions and genocide are never justified by nationalist and imperialist feelings. It’s good to understand the nationalist and imperialist feelings of Russia and the PRC, but never to excuse them.
22. May 2022 at 21:15
Scott: the whole “head-slap-it-was-Russia-all-along” thing has no merit.
The Chinese threat is great enough even the Trump admin convinced many countries to exclude Huawei products from their 5-G networks, so your contention that it was just Trump being mean is fantastical bosh. Furthermore, China has made no secret of its intent to retake Taiwan, a highly functional democracy and strong US ally, and is in territorial spats with almost all of its neighbors around the Pacific, almost all of whom fear it and are looking to the US for protection.
I’m sure a mildly competent 3rd grader could destroy that stupid paper about American movies in China. Come on, bring some actual evidence, not a bunch of garbage.
Yes, OK, we get it, you hate Trump. But it’s not about Trump, it’s about China.
22. May 2022 at 21:42
John, You said:
“The Chinese government is guilty of many things as evil as the Russian invasion of Ukraine”
Yes, under Mao. But that was a half a century ago. The current regime is evil, but nothing like Putin’s regime. Maybe that will change in the future, but right now Russia is the big threat to world peace.
“Weird Scott, changes in Chinese public opinion are solely about US actions, but changes in US public opinion somehow are never about Chinese actions.”
Who said that? The poll I cited is about attitudes toward Asian-Americans, not China.
None of it changes that the primary cause of poor relations in both cases are the Russian and Chinese governments. Tariffs are bad, but genocide and invasions and threats of invasions are worse.
So you think the bad relations are driven by the Chinese treatment of Uyghurs? Seriously? President Trump encouraged Xi to put them in concentration camps.
Jim, “I’m sure a mildly competent 3rd grader could destroy that stupid paper about American movies in China.”
Perhaps, but since you were unable to do so, can I assume that you are not a mildly competent 3rd grader?