“Warm, humid weather will take care of the problem”
Maybe, but that’s not obvious to me:
______
Off topic: A while back, I was hammered in multiple comment sections for daring to ask whether it’s possible that surgical masks actually do work for average people. Scott Alexander reviews a great deal of literature, and its very much an open question. Anyone who tells you they definitely don’t work, or even “they definitely don’t do very much good”, is lying. We don’t know if they work, but there are plenty of studies suggesting they might. I expect apologies from all of you smarty pants that suggested I was peddling nonsense.
This reopens the question of whether the low community transmission rate in East Asia might be partly a function of widespread mask wearing.
PS. Trump suddenly re-labels coronavirus as the “China virus” while his aides prefer “Kung flu”, and a few days later we see this headline:
New York Is Fighting A Surge Of Hate Crimes Against Asian-Americans Due To Coronavirus
(Watch somebody mention “German measles” in the comment section. I would hope that people who spend hours in comment sections of blogs could recognize trolling when it’s right in front of their eyes.)
And then a few days after our president decides to give out medical advice on TV, we see this story:
An Arizona man has died after ingesting chloroquine phosphate — believing it would protect him from becoming infected with the coronavirus. The man’s wife also ingested the substance and is under critical care.
The toxic ingredient they consumed was not the medication form of chloroquine, used to treat malaria in humans. Instead, it was an ingredient listed on a parasite treatment for fish.
The man’s wife told NBC News she’d watched televised briefings during which President Trump talked about the potential benefits of chloroquine.
After a previous post, I had multiple people claiming that I was suggesting chloroquine is ineffective against coronavirus. I never said that and don’t believe that. Call me crazy, but I just don’t think the President should be recommending that people ingest specific chemicals. Please, leave that to the experts.
In general, if I believe X is true then I’ll tell you that I believe X is true. If not, then don’t assume it.
PPS. Don’t forget that this is my bad blog. If you want to read some good blogging then read George Selgin’s new post.
PPPS. I also highly recommend this Matt Yglesias post, which gave me a better understanding of the Fed’s legal authority (a confusing issue.).
Tags:
24. March 2020 at 09:48
Is Selgin saying that we actually have four branches of government, not three: the legislative branch that is responsible for creating laws including those that affect the size of the fisc, the administrative branch that executes the laws but has no power for changing the size of the fisc, the judicial branch which simply interprets the laws, and a fourth branch, the monetary, that manages the money supply.
It makes sense. If you invest a single branch with increasing the fisc and controlling the money supply you create a closed system that has no need of reality.
24. March 2020 at 10:37
The reporting that I saw back in January claimed that masks were effective at preventing the wearer from transmitting pathogens to over by containing droplets from their coughs and sneezes, and also that the protective effect against catching a pathogen from wearing a mask was uncertain. So if you say, require that everyone wear some kind of face mask to walk down the street or into a store (and check their temp with a thermometer gun before letting them enter the store or workplace), I would bet that has a material effect on transmission. Even if the masks aren’t 100% effective at keeping droplets in when someone coughs or sneezes, you would still think that it is helpful and does reduce the amount of droplets getting out. Surgeons wear masks for a reason, right?
24. March 2020 at 10:41
New Yorkers are heading to Florida with their Covid-19 and the Republican Governor in Florida won’t stop them, unlike the Republican President who stopped the caravan coming up from the South. Florida’s governor claims to be following the President’s lead, but he’s not. It’s hot down in Florida, not humid yet but really hot. Like Sumner, I’m skeptical that the heat will kill the virus, but the heat has definitely killed some brain cells in the sunshine state. Shelter in place? Not in Florida. An aside, there are several economics oriented blogs that are waving their libertarian freak flags. Among other things, they support letting somebody sitting on their bed who weighs 400 pounds produce and sell cures for Covid-19. What could go wrong?
24. March 2020 at 10:52
Yeah, that would be me then. 😉
All this absurd political correctness makes it too easy for Trump. He has now found a new starting point to generate approval.
There are a lot of illnesses, which are of course named after their origin, that’s not too bad, then you know immediately where it comes from or came from.
What should the reasoning be anyway, let’s summarize it again: there are dozens of diseases that have been named geographically, but this one disease that comes from China, this one virus that has been covered up by the Chinese in a particularly reprehensible manner, this one virus where the Chinese now even deny its origin, so in short, this cover-up virus, this Chinese-the-biggest-botch-up-of-all-times virus, this lies-about-the-origin-virus, this terrible virus, the politically correct elites now tell us, must not be called Chinese virus.
As I said, these people make it far too easy for Trump, they don’t even realize what they are doing.
I would suggest exactly the opposite: as long as the Chinese deny the origin of the virus with ever wilder conspiracy theories, it cannot be said often enough: Chinese virus, Chinese virus, Chinese virus, Chinese virus, Chinese virus. C.h.i.n.e.s.e V.i.r.u.s.
24. March 2020 at 10:58
As some of your commenters misunderstand your claims; you seem to misunderstand Trump. I do not see that he recommended people take malaria meds. Rather he cited promising evidence that there are treatments. That’s the kind of news a leader should be sharing. Much like in 2008, there is some evidence that we are in an implicit conspiracy to amplify bad news.
https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b?segmentId=b385c2ad-87ed-d8ff-aaec-0f8435cd42d9
24. March 2020 at 10:58
Christian, Yeah, figured there’d be some commenters who were so dumb that they couldn’t spot someone trolling if it were right in front of their face.
As far as the Chinese lying about the epidemic, when does the US government plan to stop lying about the epidemic? When do GOP leaders plan to stop their wild conspiracy theories? When do we plan to stop “botching” the response to the epidemic?
The good thing about Trump’s decision is that it will cost a few Asian-America votes. For some reason lots of Asian-Americans supported Trump. After getting beat up a few times they may change their minds.
24. March 2020 at 11:06
Some of the studies do seem to indicate a reduction in contagiousness at higher temperatures and humidity, but as Razib Khan has been pointing out we don’t know whether the temperature or humidity is more important there – Iran gets pretty warm in the spring too, and they got hit hard.
Air conditioning confounds all of this as well. Does it matter if the temperature and humidity make it difficult to spread Covid-19 outdoors in the American South, if everybody is spending the day-time indoors in air-conditioned spaces anyways?
24. March 2020 at 11:06
Sorry, to add-
“American South in summer“
24. March 2020 at 11:25
I don’t know what you mean by trolling, Scott in all honesty. It seems to me that this is an incredibly overused term, which is often applied when one does not like a particular factual situation and/or when one runs out of arguments. Like I said, this makes it too easy for Trump.
I don’t see what this has to do with the initial question of origin and with the root problem, but if it makes you happy, call it the Chinese-American virus.
The fact that you walk down this road doesn’t surprise me too much anymore, but then again maybe a little bit. It’s a bit of a disappointment, predictable yes, but still disappointing.
After all, you’ve expressed libertarian sentiments before, but now that you are so totally against the term “Chinese virus” and imply that Americans are being beaten up because (!) Trump says “Chinese virus”, this all points in a completely different direction. Are you really sure that you want to go down this politically correct road. And where does this road end?
24. March 2020 at 11:46
Scott Sumner is peddling nonsense, since in every tropical country he showed, with the exception of Brazil, it’s the “summer time” which means little rain and hotter than average temperatures. Source: the Weather Channel and I live in PH. As for Brazil, crowded cities with infected people are the cause, as rayward implies about Florida. The Philippines, being close to China, would have more Covid-19 cases than Greece but for their hot, humid weather.
PS–it was funny when Sumner mentioned the ‘German measles’. One thinks of the hapless, humorless, extreme-right loving, fake MD, Christian List, from Germ-many.
24. March 2020 at 11:53
Is India cut off from the rest of the world, or are they ignoring it?
The rest of your post is a train wreck. Anyway, good to see Jerome pull the Chuck Norris.
24. March 2020 at 12:00
Christian, the rules against naming diseases after places came into effect in 2015; it’s not a special rule created for this case. And even before 2015, Ebola was deliberately named for a river hundreds of miles away from the region where it was found to avoid stigmatizing the region.
This isn’t an issue of “political correctness” but leaders using this to incite hostility and justify restrictive policies against China and Chinese people. Government leaders who actually have power over China and Chinese people calling this the “Chinese virus” is like if head of Social Security or Medicare kept calling this disease “boomer remover.”
People should be allowed to call this disease whatever they want. Chinese virus, Kung flu, boomer remover, whatever they want. No one is saying anyone should be punished for calling the disease whatever they want. The point is that those terms should not be seen as official or scientific.
24. March 2020 at 12:04
@Burgos
This has never been disputed from a medical point of view. It was said from the beginning. But at the same time, of course, corona patients should not be outside in the first place. And if they need to be transported, they get a mask.
Of course everyone can hoard masks now, too many people do that already, but that is one reason why hospitals are short on masks. I have exactly one mask left for my work, and a spare mask for emergencies, all other masks we donated to the local hospital.
24. March 2020 at 12:15
RE: Brian Donohue
India just announced a stay-at-home lock-down order for three weeks for the entire country, so apparently they are taking it seriously (whether they can actually enforce that or not is an open question).
Honestly, it’s hard to say how many cases might be slipping by in a poor population with limited reliable access to doctors. How many people with fevers and possible Covid-19 are just staying at home, or were working through it because sickness isn’t exactly a rare thing in slums? How many just died without it drawing official attention?
24. March 2020 at 12:28
Mark,
I never said that it’s a special rule created for this case. I know the new WHO rules most likely better than you do. The question is if this is such a smart idea.
Everybody called it “Wuhan virus” in the beginning, it was in all media, even in the Chinese media, my China traveler tells me that ordinary Chinese people still say “Wuhan virus” today, and then Pompeo said it and then suddenly it was racist. That does not make a good impression.
They should have simply continued to call it “Wuhan virus” as a non-scientific version (and then Covid-19 purely scientific, okay why not). It is credible that even the Chinese citizens continue to call it “Wuhan virus”, as long as they are not brainwashed by the aggressive regime propaganda.
I agree to the extent that it is mostly political. I wouldn’t say “hostile”, but Trump, of course, wants to distract from his own failures. But there’s no political law against this. It’s pretty common.
I think people like you and Scott don’t see the other side: The Chinese side now denies that the virus has anything to do with China at all. It is a very important concern of the Chinese regime that the terms “Wuhan virus” and “Chinese virus” are no longer used. The Chinese propaganda wants to eradicate any connection between China and the virus in the minds of as many people as possible. That’s one important reason why Western politicians should not follow this path at the moment.
On a side note:
The matter is currently also becoming extremely overblown. No one has ever hated Spain because of the term “Spanish flu”. Even the Spanish say “Spanish flu” in Spanish. And the Spanish flu doesn’t even come from Spain. The term just so happened because American soldiers were hit very hard in Spain and because it spread from Spain to France and Germany. Who cares, cry me a river, get over it. Political correctness is wrong on these issues and it only benefits Trump.
24. March 2020 at 12:30
Re: Growth rate on graphs.
Hard to tell because you did not hit the log button (maybe you think bad blog readers are too uneducated?)–anyway–it appears in most of the graphs growth rate is declining—-but it is not obvious to me either—because you did not hit the log button. 🙂
Re Trump hate crimes
Agree–but at least keep up to date—
In his two hour “presser” Monday night—-he explicitly spoke out against any anti-Asian sentiment and action—-in strong terms. He also specifically did not ever refer to the virus as China Virus etc. (although I thought “Wuhan Virus” was perfectly normal)—which was a media-Trump mutual trolling device.
Yes, regarding Asian -Americans—as Chris Rock once riffed “you don’t get credit for doing what you are supposed to do” -and I agree—but, as I said, keep up to date.
Re: Arizona couple
How can you possibly blame Trump for this? (I know—you did not “blame him”—you merely said he should not be “giving out medical advice” on TV)—-Did he say “take these drugs”?
No—maybe we should look at his exact quote, look up the definition of “giving out medical advice” and see if we can logically connect the two. Or I can just say what to me is true—-you just felt like trolling him because you enjoy it.
I trust, assuming you even bother, you will wordsmith your way out of this comment—then again—I think you are trolling anyone who does not have TDS.
On to the good blogs!
24. March 2020 at 12:30
I’d call it the Wuhan Batvirus, but I don’t want to trigger the bats.
As for summer, the biggest benefit of warm weather is…natural social distancing, a.k.a., time outdoors. Others are UV (kills viruses) and vitamin D (boosts immune system). Real virologists will tell you pandemic viruses can grow counter-seasonally. I just play virologist on comment section, but I agree with that. There’s a tough road ahead.
One thing to keep in mind when looking at virus testing data, is it’s not always clear if the we are measuring the prevalence of virus, or the availability of tests.
The WSJ has finally taken up my suggestion of converting hotels into quarantine centers. The advice is coming from someone who sounds smart:
Zhang Jinnong, head of the emergency department at Wuhan’s Xiehe Hospital, said the most important thing was to separate the infected from the healthy, and recommended hotels as quarantine centers where people could be isolated in separate rooms.
“You just need to turn off the central air conditioning,” he said.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-west-is-misinterpreting-wuhans-coronavirus-progressand-drawing-the-wrong-lessons-11585074966
24. March 2020 at 12:54
Christian, you said: “there are dozens of diseases that have been named geographically, but this one disease that comes from China, this one virus … the politically correct elites now tell us, must not be called Chinese virus.” Certainly sounds like you were saying the rule against naming viruses after places applies only to this one disease.
I’m not sure what you mean by everyone calling this Wuhan virus in the beginning. Most people I know has been calling this the “coronavirus” the whole time. Later more people started calling it COVID when that came out. That’s what the non-political people call it. The people calling it the “Chinese virus” are the ones trying to make a political point. Moreover, I think there is a difference when a random person calls it the “Wuhan virus” and when people who have been pushing hostility to China for years call it that. Think of it as Joe Biden once saying all the 7-11s in Delaware are owned by Indians versus Steve Bannon saying all the CEOs in Silicon Valley are Asian. Sure, the literal meaning of their words was similar, but the actual nature and intent of their statements was completely different—Biden meant to celebrate them, Bannon wanted to kick them out. So it would be unreasonable to be offended at Biden’s statement but quite reasonable to be offended and alarmed at Bannon’s.
Regarding the Chinese side, a few diplomats started saying this came from the US in response to Pompeo putting the blame on China. In other words it was trolling. I’m also hearing some arguments from Chinese people that the virus may have originated elsewhere and was only first discovered in China. I don’t think the origin of the virus has been definitively proven yet and there is nothing wrong with exploring those theories (just like there is nothing wrong with exploring the escaped-from-lab theory that makes China look worse than the conventional wisdom).
Finally, I don’t think this matter is overblown. There are many restrictions that were placed on Chinese travel after this disease, and they remain in place even though China is by all accounts no longer a high-risk area. People have filed lawsuits against China, and there have been documented attacks on Chinese people (even US embassies have put out warnings about coronavirus related xenophobia—in other countries of course).
24. March 2020 at 13:00
Professor Sumner, this post may not age well. There are about a dozen pre-print papers on temperature and humidity now. I would take a look at them rather than just eye-balling a few charts.
The balance of the evidence seems to be pointing towards some slowing of spread due to temperature and/or humidity.
This would make sense because the same is true for other coronaviruses. Prior plausibility is high.
24. March 2020 at 13:13
Laura, No, Trump should not be discussing specific treatments.
That FT piece seems weird, as it’s completely inconsistent with what happened in Wuhan and Lombardy. On the other hand, it’s good news if it’s even partly true. I hope so.
24. March 2020 at 13:17
Mark, Good comment. Trump switched from coronavirus to China virus just recently. It’s laughable to think he doesn’t have a political agenda. But some people won’t see something even if it’s right in front of their eyes.
24. March 2020 at 13:34
I said and meant media outlets. Just use the correct time stamps in Google way before Pompeo and Trump. It’s all over the place, CNN, WSJ, NYT, Business Insider, you name it. Use February or whatever. I don’t know what term you and your friends used, how would I know.
No, the WHO can do what it wants in its scientific circles. The elite and the media demanding that we all now use certain terms (and other terms not at all) is something completely different. It’s propaganda and brainwashing.
Yeah sure, it’s all trolling now. This is so pathetic. The Chinese started this propaganda weeks before Trump started using his term, and they won’t ever stop it. It’s not a Chinese disease anymore, it’s something that has nothing to do with China at all.
The Chinese have lied for many weeks. That’s how the virus was able to spread in the first place. Island-like regions like Taiwan, Japan, US could have completely prevented the virus from spreading to their shore. Their only mistake was that their travel restrictions were much too lax, especially in case of the US. I hope the much higher costs now have been worth it, yes? PC is a real killer.
Of course it is. You didn’t care what the diseases are called in the case of Zika and Ebola, just to name two examples. The last major epidemics were after 2015, so you can’t even use the old WHO rules as an excuse. Where is the renaming? Why don’t you care?
These regions simply have no lobby. This is about power, and power only. China is incredible powerful, and if they want to eradicate whole terms, amazingly they can do it now. INCREDIBLE. With very powerful religions like Christianity and Islam we can observe similar things. No one will attack you if you say correctly that Scientology is really nonsense, but I know of powerful ideologies where such statements can mean nearly certain death. What is the difference? Power and potency.
Sorry, I might be out for a while, I have to work, desperate attempts to save human beings who are dying of a Chinese virus because we were lied to by the Chinese regime for weeks.
24. March 2020 at 13:52
I say we track down the particular bat this came from and name it after him.
24. March 2020 at 14:25
Bucksom, You said:
“Professor Sumner, this post may not age well.”
What won’t age well? The term “maybe”? The four graphs will later be shown to be inaccurate? Or perhaps the thing that will not age well is something I never said, but you assumed I said? What might that be?
Did I say that heat and humidity have no impact on the virus?
What specifically won’t age well?
Christian, You said:
“The Chinese have lied for many weeks. That’s how the virus was able to spread in the first place. Island-like regions like Taiwan, Japan, US could have completely prevented the virus from spreading to their shore.”
If you are going to complain about lies, maybe you should stop providing misleading information. Taiwan found out about the problem in December, and started testing every passenger from Wuhan. The US sat around twiddling its thumbs for months. Trump had his head in the sand, even as experts warned of a pandemic. For months we did almost nothing to address the problem. Don’t blame the Chinese because we were too stupid to do what the Taiwanese did.
You said:
“Sorry, I might be out for a while, I have to work, desperate attempts to save human beings who are dying of a Chinese virus because we were lied to by the Chinese regime for weeks.”
Don’t worry, the GOP has been telling us that it’s all a hoax.
24. March 2020 at 15:17
Lol never heard Kung Flu until now, I’m going use that one. Even works with the action grip of authoritarianism that came with it.
24. March 2020 at 15:19
Scott,
according to my sources you missed a few measures Taiwan did, for example: Taiwan took measures early on, including inspecting plane passengers coming from Wuhan starting Dec. 31, banning Wuhan residents on Jan. 23, suspending tours to China on Jan. 25, and eventually banning all Chinese visitors on Feb. 6.
The pro side around Mark implies that the Chinese travel restrictions were wrong and racist. Now we can’t even say “Wuhan virus” or “Chinese virus” anymore, no wonder that travel restrictions were so difficult, when the virus has nothing to do with China at all.
But Taiwan’s reaction is so great, right? You two are not on the same page, it’s one thing or the other.
Again, it’s hard how you two are on the same page here. You are correct but then Mark’s theory that the Chinese absurd origin story is just “trolling” and a reaction to Trump’s political games is false. It’s again one thing or the other.
This may all be true, I believe you, but it has no effect on my country. I also think the American response isn’t such a huge negative outlier either.
The fact that no Western government reacted correctly either means that all Western governments are incompetent, or it means, which is more likely, that it was simply very difficult to detect, possibly also because of the lack of transparency by the Chinese. The strength of the Taiwanese was that they did not believe a single word China said from day one.
24. March 2020 at 15:41
Scott,
For the NY one, the Anti-Asian discrimination is probably all due to Blacks, as it has typically been. If it was Whites, they would have listed their names and specific incidents. It has been this way for a long time. Follow Andy Ngo, as he has categorized these incidents for a very long time.
Also, my belief that the coronavirus would not be as bad as predicted by the media seems to be coming true lately. The number of new cases today will be the same as yesterday, despite a massive ramping of testing. The DOW is also up quite a bit, up 2200 points today. Though perhaps this is the Federal Reserve response.
24. March 2020 at 19:05
The graphs Scott put up show exponential curves without any context. Nobody ever said the virus wouldn’t show up at all or at first spread exponentially. Sheesh.
24. March 2020 at 21:12
I hope we can still call it Chinese food.
24. March 2020 at 21:26
Scott,
Come on. Now you’re trolling.
“Warm, humid weather will take care of the problem”
Maybe, but that’s not obvious to me:
Pretty gosh darn obvious to me. Cases per million people below…
Malaysia 50
Brazil 11
Phillipines 5
Indonesia 3
UK 119
South Korea 178
USA 166
Norway 529
And to make it really obvious…
Vietnam 1
Iceland 1,899
25. March 2020 at 02:50
#maskinpublic. Save the good ones for the healthcare workers. Make your own if you have to. If covering your mouth when you sneeze works, then masking has to work, right?
25. March 2020 at 05:26
Scott,
whether the humid weather helps or not depends on the type of virus, and yes, literature exists that suggests that absolute humidity (helped by higher temperatures) might correlate well with a decrease in transmission of some viruses. Maybe we’re just not lucky with this one.
Masks: assuming all East Asian societies are similarly organized, there is a curious disparity. In Taiwan and Japan, face masks seem to be the norm, even in the normal flu season. In Singapore, they’re still a rare sight on the streets. So in recent weeks, both mask wearing Asians and non mask wearing Asians have achieved a modicum of control over virus spread, neither of them perfect. Both Taiwan and Singapore had recent surges in infections … from homecoming residents. You may say, mask vs no mask has got to have _some_ effect but it seems the case for masks is unclear, epidemiologically.
Another data point, a study on COVID-19 patients in Singapore showed that they put lots of virus on all common surfaces in their clinical environment – door knobs, toilet seats, what have you – but it remained undetectable as aerosol. (though it was detectable on air vent surfaces/filters).
25. March 2020 at 14:12
Studies out of China say that at smokers/vapors are 14x more likely to die from virus…
https://tobacco.ucsf.edu/reduce-your-risk-serious-lung-disease-caused-corona-virus-quitting-smoking-and-vaping
UV radiation kills the virus, humidity reduces the time it is airborne…so yes these help but probably not so much when you live in an air conditioned urban canyon
25. March 2020 at 19:53
This is better: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767
They control for population density, GDP per capita, and city-level fixed effects.
25. March 2020 at 21:22
ssumner, may be Trump switched from CoronaVirus to ChineseVirus bcoz some underling in Chinese Govt started peddling (according to media reports), and that’s not bound to have happened unless blessed with the CCP & government approval, an idea that the issue originated out of US. So why the eff should Trump play nice now rather than reiterate the origin of the virus to the correct place? Don’t play with fire and cry mama when burnt?
People should not be bloviating on “we go high when they go low” – sometimes and at appropriate junctures tit for tat is also a tool in the arsenal. that’s how US got Trump in WH in the first place. Realpolitik.
26. March 2020 at 05:56
Total cases is not a good proxy, since they are ramping up testing. Look at deaths as proxy for contamination
27. March 2020 at 21:41
https://www.jmedj.co.jp/journal/paper/detail.php?id=14278&fbclid=IwAR23nWTK3V9eTEUYYQiKND6rSSsi5hPvcbjTuuoXNwgFyE2gWLg-sG6TPhw
The man made Favipiravir wrote this article