The past 12 weeks

North Dakota has 762,000 people. Vermont has 624,000 people.

I know what you all are wondering—how many people have died of Covid in each state over the past 12 weeks?

North Dakota: 427
Vermont: Zero

North Dakota now has more Covid deaths per capita than Italy. Their biggest city is Fargo (pop. 124,000). Perhaps there’s overcrowding in the Fargo subway system.

Someone needs to investigate:


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23 Responses to “The past 12 weeks”

  1. Gravatar of DeservingPorcupine DeservingPorcupine
    2. November 2020 at 16:22

    I’d bet all the money the reason for the difference is not at all interesting or helpful for overall COVID strategy.

  2. Gravatar of Ricardo Ricardo
    2. November 2020 at 16:54

    Those Fargo deaths are due to that “funny-looking guy”!

  3. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    2. November 2020 at 20:17

    Deserving, I’ll take that bet.

    Ricardo, . . . with the orange hair.

  4. Gravatar of Carl Carl
    2. November 2020 at 21:40

    I assume you’re going to point to Vermont’s contact tracing program and high mask-wearing. Vermont has extremely low crime and poverty as well, but North Dakota is on the low side, although not as low, on both sides as well.

  5. Gravatar of Todd Kreider Todd Kreider
    2. November 2020 at 22:25

    Vermont’s largest city has a population of only 42,000, the second largest city next door has a population of 17,000 and the third largest only 12,000.

    The largest eight cities in North Dakota:

    Fargo (129,530)
    Bismarck (74,162)
    Grand Forks (57,060)
    Minot (45,732)
    West Fargo (38,718)
    Williston (25,810)
    Mandan (22,973)
    Dickinson (21,835)

    Also, 28% of people in Vermont are obese compared to 35% in North Dakota.

  6. Gravatar of James Alexander James Alexander
    2. November 2020 at 23:11

    Slightly off topic, you talked about the EC bias in a recent post as between 3-5%. With these little places each having two Senators, what is the Senate-bias? Or is that not a thing? Seems totally crazy to me.

  7. Gravatar of Benjamin Cole Benjamin Cole
    3. November 2020 at 00:29

    The whole COVID-19 story, domestically and globally, confounds everyone.

    India went to lockdowns in March, gave up on them in next few months, and case-loads surged into mid-September, and then started to decline and are still declining. No one knows why, though some are talking herd immunity.

    Thailand and Cambodia appear immune, even before the herd was infected. Laos has reported 24 cases and no deaths. Why? No one even seems curious.

    Similarly, Africa has hardly any COVID-19 deaths. What is the Africa-SE Asia connection? No one cares. Both regions run Zebu- Brahmin cattle, but that seems far-fetched.

    I am looking forward to more joint studies by economists and epidemiologists.

    Were portions of the China population immune from the get-go? No one knows.

    Many Asian Pacific nations seem to have had better luck re COVID-19. Genetics? Exposure to previous related viruses? No one knows.

    Some say Wuhan labs were trying to develop an innocuous strain of a bat virus, spread naturally by air, as a type of mass vaccination. No one knows…interesting idea though, and not necessarily sinister….

  8. Gravatar of Steve Steve
    3. November 2020 at 03:06

    I would bet that those unfortunate people died WITH Covid, not OF Covid. Of those 400+ people, how many were healthy, under 50 years old with no other health issues? I would bet zero.

  9. Gravatar of xu xu
    3. November 2020 at 03:46

    People in North Dakota don’t need your communist plans, your communist police state shutdowns, and police state mandates.

    Sumner voted for the CCP on his mail in ballot.
    He’s probably still in basement.

    Trump 2020
    Huuuuuuuuuuuge win.
    Communist Sumner tears will be so sweet!

  10. Gravatar of bill bill
    3. November 2020 at 05:19

    I think Nate Silver said the Senate bias is 6%.

  11. Gravatar of Student Student
    3. November 2020 at 05:58

    For the record, Vermont has a population density 6 times as dense as North Dakota, so come on people. It’s not a matter of population density.

  12. Gravatar of Todd Kreider Todd Kreider
    3. November 2020 at 06:06

    Average population density isn’t the issue, concentrated cities are.

  13. Gravatar of zephito zephito
    3. November 2020 at 06:12

    The urbanization aspect could be possible – Vermont is ~40% urbanized while ND is ~60% urbanized. Maine is actually the least urbanized state (according to wikipedia from 2010) and they’re also doing quite well.

  14. Gravatar of Student Student
    3. November 2020 at 06:48

    Got to love it when someone tries to tell you that a place with 6 times less population density is really actually denser, haha.

    Let’s look at the largest cities then… Fargo ND has a population density of 2,162.0 people per square mile. Burlington VT has 4,119 people per square mile…. double the density.

    Try again…

  15. Gravatar of Michael Rulle Michael Rulle
    3. November 2020 at 07:04

    Since you believe Vermont’s numbers and assume, it seems, that they are doing something close to miraculous. What is it they are doing? Why not force very state to do what Vermont is doing? What are they doing?

  16. Gravatar of Student Student
    3. November 2020 at 07:23

    Vermonters strike me as pretty reasonable people that aren’t obsessed with ideology… I am gonna guess VT-ers are using common sense and voluntarily wearing masks and whatnot. But that’s just my gut… It’s clearly not population density like some people are insisting in the face of contradictory facts.

  17. Gravatar of Treehorn Treehorn
    3. November 2020 at 09:30

    Scott,
    Excess deaths in 2020, when looking at VT and ND, are eerily similar. Where are the VT excess deaths coming from? VT is definitely an outlier compared to all other states, in that their their Covid deaths make up a small percentage of their excess deaths.

  18. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    3. November 2020 at 09:57

    Carl, I’m just reporting the facts.

    Todd, You said:

    “Also, 28% of people in Vermont are obese compared to 35% in North Dakota.”

    Yeah, That will explain the difference between 427 and zero.

    You said:

    “Average population density isn’t the issue, concentrated cities are.”

    I’ve been to Fargo. “Concentrated” is the last adjective anyone would apply. You are grasping for straws.

    James, The Senate favors the GOP, for slightly different reasons than the EC bias.

    Steve, You said:

    “I would bet that those unfortunate people died WITH Covid, not OF Covid.”

    LOL

    Michael, I’m just reporting facts, it’s the commenters who are getting hysterical.

    Treehorn. NDs Covid deaths are quite recent, and excess deaths are reported with a long lag. It will show up.

  19. Gravatar of Christian List Christian List
    3. November 2020 at 12:26

    Scott,

    It is a hopeless cause.

    It is a disease that is almost only transmitted through breathing, other means of transmission do not play a role in practice, but the Covidiots still doubt the masks.

    You could stick the noses of these Inspector Clouseaus into a turd, they would still claim that it smells after Chanel Nº 5.

  20. Gravatar of Todd Kreider Todd Kreider
    3. November 2020 at 12:49

    Scott wrote:

    Todd, You said:

    “Also, 28% of people in Vermont are obese compared to 35% in North Dakota.”

    Yeah, That will explain the difference between 427 and zero.
    ————

    Scott, you need to learn the concept of “at the margin.” I also never implied that obesity differences explained all of the difference in deaths.

    —————
    You said:
    “Average population density isn’t the issue, concentrated cities are.”
    I’ve been to Fargo. “Concentrated” is the last adjective anyone would apply. You are grasping for straws.
    —————

    With concentration and viruses, it is relative. Viruses really like large populations with high density.

    Vermont

    Burlington has a population of 42,000 and 4,100 people per sq mi.
    South Burlington has 19,000 people and 1,200 per sq mi.
    Rutland has 16,000 people and 2,000 people per sq mi.

    North Dakota

    Fargo (metro)has 250,000 people and 2,700 people per sq mi
    Bismarck has 74,000 people and 2,000 people per sq mi
    Grand Forks has 57,000 people and 2,100 people per sq mi
    Minot has 46,000 and 1,700 people per sq mi
    West Fargo has 38,000 people and 2,400 people per sq mi
    Williston has 26,000 people and 1,100 people per sq mi
    Mandan has 23,000 people and 1,700 people per sq mi
    Dickinson has 23,000 people and 1,700 people per sq mi

    You seriously don’t see which state is more vulnerable in a pandemic?

  21. Gravatar of Student Student
    3. November 2020 at 13:26

    Todd be making up his own numbers again.

  22. Gravatar of Student Student
    3. November 2020 at 13:30

    Todd, are you really trying to argue:

    1.) North Dakota is high density, or;
    2.) North Dakota is denser than Vermont (which is also low density)?

    Both so obviously wrong.

  23. Gravatar of Todd Kreider Todd Kreider
    3. November 2020 at 13:42

    Student,

    We aren’t doing quantum mechanics here.

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