Random articles

1. Philippe Lemoine has a good article on how Covid will impact society in the long run:

Conclusion

The pandemic is on its way out, but SARS-CoV-2 is here to stay. Fortunately, as everyone develops immunity to it (whether through vaccination or natural infection), it will soon no longer be a major problem anymore. The virus will continue to circulate, but much less than during the pandemic and, even when people are infected, the infection will typically be mild. In the future, almost everyone will get infected for the first time during their childhood, which is harmless and will protect them against severe illness when they are reinfected.15 The virus will continue to mutate and some of those mutations will favor immune evasion, but while this will allow it to infect people who have already been infected or vaccinated more easily, immunity should continue to protect against severe forms of the disease, thanks in particular to the role played by T-cells. This is likely what happened with other human coronaviruses, which are already endemic and typically cause a cold in the people they infect. To the extent that immune evasion occurs, it will be very gradual and the fact that most people will be infected every few years will update their immunity, ensuring that subsequent reinfections will also be mild. The most vulnerable people, whose immune system doesn’t work very well and could use some help to be ready in case of infection, can get a vaccine booster from time to time. The virus will still kill people, as the flu does, but it will never cause the same amount of disruption again. The hardest part of what lays ahead may be to convince people who have been traumatized by the pandemic that it’s over and that restrictions are no longer necessary.

2. The Economist reports that only 15% of the Bulgarian population has been fully vaccinated, and yet demand for vaccination is so low the country is being forced to export lots of unused doses:

Historically, Bulgarians have had little trust in official advice. Circumventing rules of all sorts is a national pastime. Many people are suspicious of the jabs because they are new; some think the virus does not exist, and that measures against the pandemic are a conspiracy. Only a handful of prominent politicians have had themselves vaccinated on television, or are urging people to get a jab. . . .

Watching Bulgarian television can leave you confused. A few covid-sceptical doctors are regularly invited on talk shows. Some advise people with medical conditions that would place them in priority vaccination groups in most countries against getting jabbed. About 30% of doctors and 60% of nurses are unvaccinated.

Dr Kunchev says this is partly because infectious diseases and immunology are barely covered in medical-school curriculums. 

Is this because Bulgaria is poor? Perhaps, but Portugal is also relatively poor, and has the world’s highest vaccination rates, with over 78% having received a first dose:

3. Speaking of The Economist, this is madness:

Only when the world is adequately vaccinated will travel start to feel as it did before the pandemic. That may not be until 2024, by some estimates. Even then, daft rules could stick. America’s ban on travellers with hiv was introduced in the 1980s and abolished only in 2010. Likewise, airlines could be asking for covid-19 papers for years to come. Britain’s transport minister, Grant Shapps, says Britons who venture abroad will need to be fully vaccinated against covid-19 “for evermore”.

Vaccine certification may well make sense in the long run. But bans on visitors from certain countries or caps on international arrivals do not. The risk is that these rules and regulations may outlive their purpose not because governments cannot undo them, but because no politician wants to be the first to try.

4. And The Economist is skeptical of the value of massive fiscal stimulus:

Some economists see insufficient spending as a cause of subdued labour demand. In three-quarters of rich countries the “fiscal impulse”, a measure of the oomph government spending gives the economy, is expected to turn negative this year. Yet it seems unlikely that governments can close the worker deficit simply by spending more. Compare America and the EU. In the spring of 2020 aggregate working hours in both economies tanked. America then passed gargantuan stimulus packages, while European governments chose more modest measures. The recovery in working hours since then has been only marginally better in America—not much extra labour for a lot of extra cash.

5. The same issue documents the sad decline in democracy in numerous Asian countries, including India:

Under Narendra Modi, the prime minister since 2014, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has eroded many of the checks and balances that underpin true democracy. Elections themselves are largely free and fair. But defamation laws are abused to hound critics. Political opponents are intimidated and even imprisoned. Over 7,000 Indians have been charged with sedition under the BJP, casting a chill on civil society. . . .

The v-Dem Institute at the University of Gothenburg, which produces an annual report on the state of democracy around the world, declared this year that India has gone from “electoral democracy” to “electoral autocracy”, as autocratic as Pakistan and worse than Bangladesh or Nepal. 

Still more democratic than China, but the gap is narrowing.

6. A few months ago, some commenters asked me why I thought the US was becoming more puritanical. Here’s an example:

OnlyFans provided a financial lifeline to sex workers during the Covid-19 pandemic. Now those who have built businesses on the platform are wondering whether they’ll see everything evaporate. . . . The company has said the changes were due to pressure from financial services companies, such as banks or payment providers.

This article in Reason provides some context.

7. The war in Afghanistan may soon be over, but the American government’s war on drug-using Americans is endless:

None of the nine wealthy 20-somethings who were rushed to Manhattan emergency rooms by ambulance one night in November 2019 meant to use opioids. They all thought they were using cocaine, until seven of them passed out within minutes of the first bump.

All of them needed hits of naloxone, the overdose reversal drug, on the way to the hospital. Two were so far gone that they needed three.

The partiers were part of five groups who didn’t know each other, but several had the same contact’s number in their phones, suggesting that a tainted batch of coke was indeed floating around Midtown and Lower Manhattan that night. Blood tests indicated that the cocaine was tainted with fentanyl,

That’s what an illegal drug market looks like—lots of accidental overdoses.

8. Trumpistas a month ago: “Biden shouldn’t get credit for the pullout, as he is merely implementing Trump’s policy decision.”

Trumpistas today: “How dare you suggest that this fiasco was Trump’s idea.”

(But don’t underrate Pompeo’s role.)


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24 Responses to “Random articles”

  1. Gravatar of Mike M. Mike M.
    21. August 2021 at 17:52

    Did you forget to include point #6? And on point #5, is the democracy gap between India and China really narrowing? I would concede that India is going down in absolute level, but for the relative gap to narrow it requires that China isn’t also going down at least as fast. I guess we will know next year, when we see whether China is adopting lifetime rule for its leaders rather than the previous practice of term limits

  2. Gravatar of Mary Mary
    21. August 2021 at 18:43

    First of all, a competent person would evacuate businessmen, tourists and investors before withdrawing their military. One could have also extended visas to translators and other officials. As far as the record shows, that was always Trumps plan; hence, the 2,500 troops.

    In May, Biden declared he was withdrawing ALL of those troops.

    In June and July, he ignored multiple intelligence reports that asked for additional troops, citing Kabul’s imminent collapse. My guess is he ignored these reports because it wasn’t politically savvy to resend troops after he promised the nation that Afghanistan’s military could fend for themselves.

    In June or July, he could have begun the evacuation process. It wasn’t a failure of intelligence; it was a failure of management.

    Furthermore, you can see the lack of management throughout the chain of command. The embassy told citizens they would have to get to Kabul airport themselves, without security, and that they would have to pay 2,000 for repatriation. Two days letter, that 2,000 was dismissed. There is clearly no plan, no coordination, and the Biden team is making things up as they go along.

    There are reports of the embassy issuing blank visas. They simply handed them out, and told people to put their names on them. This is not competent.

    And to blame such things on Trump, or his administration, when the record shows otherwise is intellectual dishonesty.

  3. Gravatar of Todd Kreider Todd Kreider
    21. August 2021 at 18:55

    Scott wrote: “Is this because Bulgaria is poor? Perhaps, but Portugal is also relatively poor,…”

    GDP per capita PPP:

    Japan $45,000
    Italy $43,300
    Portugal $35,000
    Bulgaria $25,000

    Portugal only has a per capita GDP of 80% that of Japan and Italy, but I don’t hear many saying Italy and Japan are relatively poor.

  4. Gravatar of rinat rinat
    21. August 2021 at 19:04

    Americans are poor.

    1. Your median wage hasn’t increased in a decade, because you continue to import more labor than you need.

    2. You are in tremendous debt that you will NEVER get rid of.

    The entire baby boomer generation lived way beyond their means, handicapping future generations and effectively destroying the republic. Losers like Sumner (who ran from Nam like the little punk wussy libtard he is) destroyed your country.

    3. 70% of Americans have no savings. You produce almost nothing locally. The prices for every day living are astronomical. You have no downtowns, so everyone outside of the city is FORCED to own a car just to get to the supermarket and survive.

    Americans have one of the lowest standards of living, and worse lifestyles in the world.

    And now the one thing you do have, “freedom” is being ripped away from you daily.

    The democratic party continues to attack the bill of rights daily.

  5. Gravatar of Michael Sandifer Michael Sandifer
    21. August 2021 at 19:08

    Yes, the US government’s war against pornography has been somewhat flying under the radar.

    This was an issue years ago when I was a stockbroker at Merrill Lynch, as clients had debit cards for their non-IRA brokerage accounts and would sometimes complain about not being able to use the cards on some websites. The sites in question nearly always featured pornography, online gambling, or marijuana startups, or offered opportunities to invest in such companies. I was well-aware that the Treasury Department was putting tremendous pressure on banks to refuse to process payments for companies in these industries.

    It’s outrageous that we have this censorship through financial repression that does not even have the pretense of being associated with anything particularly dangerous. At least with the Know Your Customer rules, there is the possibility that we make it more difficult to fund terrorism, for example. But, what demonstrable benefit do we get by limiting pornography, online gambling, or the marijuana trade?

    The ban on online gambling is particularly suspicious, given that many types of gambling are legal in certain jurisdictions, and that even some states run gambling operations via lotteries. It smacks of efforts to limit competition in the gambling industry.

  6. Gravatar of ankh ankh
    21. August 2021 at 19:24

    I agree with Rinat about standard of living.

    I would much rather live in Tokyo, Thailand, Portugal, Bulgaria, Indonesia, Hungary – really any country besides the U.S.

    And all of your wounds are self inflicted by one party. Democrats consolidated industry with government regulation. They also send billions of money abroad which props up drug cartels and corrupt regimes. And the money they send to states for social welfare doesn’t even go to that purpose. It’s essentially earmarked for profit. They pocket the money through targeted subsidies.

    The democrat party is running one of the greatest scams of all time. We will give you “free stuff”, just vote for us 🙂 It’s remarkable how many people fall for that.

  7. Gravatar of ankh ankh
    21. August 2021 at 19:26

    I agree with Rinat about standard of living.

    I would much rather live in Tokyo, Thailand, Portugal, Bulgaria, Indonesia, Hungary – really any country besides the U.S.

    And all of your wounds are self inflicted by one party. Democrats consolidated industry with government regulation. They also send billions of money abroad which props up drug cartels and corrupt regimes. And the money they send to states for social welfare doesn’t even go to that purpose. It’s essentially earmarked for profit. They pocket the money through targeted subsidies.

    The democrat party is running one of the greatest scams of all time. We will give you “free stuff”, just vote for us. It’s remarkable how many people fall for that.

  8. Gravatar of Henry Henry
    21. August 2021 at 19:45

    The whole “free stuff for vote” is designed to fool the short sighted. In other words, they are praying on people with a low IQ AND people with more empathy than logic.

    For example, the dems say everyone has a right to free college so they can move up the social ladder. But what they fail to see is the logical conclusion. 1. Free college isn’t free. 2., It will only decrease the value of the qualification. Something like 35% of Americans have a degree now, which is far too many.

    Your B.S. has now become the H.S.. Any way you slice and dice, there are only a limited number of highly skilled, highly paid positions. In 1960, 13% of the population has a B.S.. And in the 1960’s, you could argue an individual with an H.S. was more educated than the kids today with a B.S.. Unlike today, teachers in the 1960’s at High schools across the country enforced discipline, and they demanded high quality work!

    Same logic applies to universal healthcare, social subsidies, etc, etc. Before medicare and medicaid, the elderly and poor were not turned away. NGO’s and the rich either paid the doctors, or the doctor provided service for free. Most doctors owned a clinic, and very few turned away the poor. And before SSA, kids took care of their parents – as they should! Only the selfish refuse to take care of their parents.

    The dems just believe they can spend your money better than you can. It’s hubris and arrogance!

  9. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    21. August 2021 at 21:12

    Mike, India’s getting worse at a far faster pace than China. And we already know that term limits are dead in China.

    Mary, You said:

    “First of all, a competent person would evacuate businessmen, tourists and investors before withdrawing their military.”

    So why was no one in either party complaining about the lack of “evacuation” back in July? Americans were free to leave whenever they liked–no one was keeping them there.

    Todd, You said:

    “Portugal only has a per capita GDP of 80% that of Japan and Italy, but I don’t hear many saying Italy and Japan are relatively poor.”

    LOL, can your comments get any dumber?

  10. Gravatar of jayne jayne
    21. August 2021 at 21:24

    You don’t pull out troops and leave the equipment and your own citizens behind for the enemy.

    Sumner is a hyper-partisan political hack, who cannot seem to put the shoe on the other foot. Eight years ago he tried to blame Benghazi on Bush, and now he’s attempting to blame Biden’s failures on Trump. In his fantasy world the democrats never make a mistake.

    Trump didn’t withdraw all the troops. That wasn’t part of the “Trump plan”. lol.

    I really love Sumner’s take on the Covid virus too. He had a mental meltdown, in which he cried endlessly for days about 20,000 cases a day. Now that we are at 150,000 he is silent. Why? Because his communist friend Biden is in office.

    He nearly drowned in tears when Trump spoke to the Ukrainian prime minister – bellowing out that he was a traitor.

    When it comes to Biden’s son, and Biden’s only dealings, he’s silent.

    The shoe on the other foot? Not for Sumner!

    His favorite saying: “One rule for thee, another for me” – Scott Sumner

  11. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    21. August 2021 at 21:24

    Mike, On the numbering, I appear to be getting senile.

  12. Gravatar of Todd Kreider Todd Kreider
    21. August 2021 at 21:45

    Scott: “Portugal only has a per capita GDP of 80% that of Japan and Italy, but I don’t hear many saying Italy and Japan are relatively poor.”

    LOL, can your comments get any dumber?
    ===

    Scott, I realize you do not understand purchasing power parity (PPP) and why that is needed to compare standard of living across countries, but I’d recommend Paul Krugman’s trade/finance text which clearly explains this.

    In your mind, Portugal is “relatively poor” but the Japanese at only 20% higher GDP per capita are not. Or maybe you *do* think Japanese are relatively poor. Is that what you thought when you rode the bullet train in Japan a few years ago? How relatively poor they were as you whizzed by the countryside at 200 mph?

  13. Gravatar of harry harry
    21. August 2021 at 21:49

    Another hypocritical dem

    https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1428709749189750788

    Dems now want ID’s to “reduce fraud” when it comes to vaccine passports.

    But when it comes to votes they believe “id’s don’t reduce fraud and are unnecessary”.

    They will say anything to stay in power, and to consolidate their power.

    In short, they are totalitarian Communists!

  14. Gravatar of janice janice
    21. August 2021 at 21:58

    https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-08-20/recall-candidate-larry-elder-is-a-threat-to-black-californians

    Apparently, black people who disagree with democrats are now called “the black face of white supremacy”. Democrats used to call them Uncle Tom’s, now it’s “white supremacist”. You cannot make this stuff up.

    Talk about bizarre.

    Democrats were the party of Jim Crow, so its unsurprising. But still sad to see the bigotry of that party.

  15. Gravatar of David S David S
    21. August 2021 at 22:33

    Lots to unpack here Scott—makes it harder for us trolls to focus.

    Pompeo is desperately trying to ooze his way to the presidential nomination in 2024, with the fallback plan of extracting as much money as he can from right wing think-tanks and other donors.

    Are we becoming more Puritanical or more Medieval? Criminalizing sex work might be the second oldest profession, or at least a way to unite the worst elements of the Religious Right and the Super-Woke Left.

    Thanks for the link to the Reason article.

  16. Gravatar of Tim Worstall Tim Worstall
    22. August 2021 at 03:04

    “Is this because Bulgaria is poor? Perhaps, but Portugal”

    I’ve not lived in Bulgaria but I have in Russia. And now live in Portugal. Not that I’d take this following entirely and wholly seriously. But Portugal was fascist until 1974. The other two communist until 1989. Fascism clearly damages confidence in government less than communism….

  17. Gravatar of Ralph Musgrave Ralph Musgrave
    22. August 2021 at 04:34

    Looks like a very silly argument against fiscal stimulus by The Economist. I can’t see the whole article as it’s behind a paywall, but the argument seems to be that fiscal stimulus won’t solve the problem that people have withdraw from the workforce.

    You don’t say!! If people decide not to work, who cares? What’s that to do with government or anyone else? It’s stark staring obvious that fiscal stimulus may well not attract them back to work. The purpose of stimulus (fiscal or monetary) is to deal with excess unemployment, i.e. provide jobs for those who far from having “withdrawn from the workforce” are still willing to work but can’t find work. I suspect the average intelligent ten year old understands that. And the Economist wants me to ACTUALLY PAY to read their articles! Hilarious.

  18. Gravatar of BC BC
    22. August 2021 at 04:57

    #2) I didn’t realize that Facebook was so popular in Bulgaria. Vaccine hesitancy is caused by American Big Tech’s unwillingness to censor misinformation, right?

    #6) Why we can’t simply dismiss censorship/cancellation by private business with arguments that private businesses should be free to censor speech and/or refuse to do business with whomever they want (porn, unvaccinated, Dr. Seuss, etc.). The government can pressure these private businesses with implicit or explicit threats of unfavorable regulatory treatment/enforcement, so the censorship/cancellation is not necessarily purely private. On the other hand, using government to prohibit private censorship/cancellation is also a dangerous form of censorship.

    #8) Biden’s reckless pullout was the type of reckless behavior that we feared Trump would engage in. Maybe, the Trumpistas just mean that, a month ago, Biden was taking Trump seriously but now Biden is taking Trump literally.

  19. Gravatar of steve steve
    22. August 2021 at 05:10

    The Lemoine article is pretty good. I think he is correct that it becomes endemic just not sure if we will need yearly vaccinations like we do with flu. This is a new virus and its clinical presentation has been unique in a lot of ways. That may not necessarily correlate with how it spreads but I am leery of people making predictions with a lot of certainty ab out a new virus. My real concern now, besides getting through the current surge, is what happens when we see people with both flu and Covid. If we can get thru this flu season OK then I think we mostly settle into a scenario like Lemoine describes.

    ““First of all, a competent person would evacuate businessmen, tourists and investors before withdrawing their military.””

    Never spent anytime in the ME did you? AS soon as the Afghan govt leaders saw the US citizens being evacuated by the military they would grab their bags of money and leave. Not being paid and with no functional govt the military folds with massive desertions, just like we saw, just sooner. The Taliban moves in earlier since there is no resistance. Plus, the Taliban had those extra 5000 fighters Pompeo got freed fresh out of R&R ready to fight. Where we could have done better is getting the interpreters out sooner.

    Steve

  20. Gravatar of Michael Sandifer Michael Sandifer
    22. August 2021 at 06:57

    I certainly put Portugal in a totally different category than Bulgaria, in terms of wealth. Portugal is much, much closer to Mississippi or Puerto Rico levels of wealth than Bulgaria. Bulgaria is more comparable to the Philippines or the Dominican Republic.

  21. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    22. August 2021 at 09:12

    Tim and David, Good comments.

    BC, What does your point #6 have to do with my post, which doesn’t even mention the government? I was talking about puritanism.

    Michael, I agree. But it’s still the poorest country in Western Europe, and one of the most highly vaccinated countries in the world (in first doses.)

  22. Gravatar of Todd Kreider Todd Kreider
    22. August 2021 at 09:41

    Michael wrote: “I certainly put Portugal in a totally different category than Bulgaria, in terms of wealth. Portugal is much, much closer to Mississippi or Puerto Rico levels of wealth than Bulgaria. Bulgaria is more comparable to the Philippines or the Dominican Republic.”

    Every so often data is useful. Per capita GDP (PPP):

    Mississippi 42,000
    Puerto Rico $36,000
    Portugal $35,000
    Bulgaria $25,000 (30% lower than Portugal)

    Dominican Republic $19,000 (25% lower than Bulgaria)
    Philippines $9,000 (more than 50% lower than Bulgaria)

  23. Gravatar of TravisV TravisV
    23. August 2021 at 07:32

    Prof. Sumner,

    I assume you’ve read Yglesias’s August 17th reaction to Afghanistan, correct?

    https://www.slowboring.com/p/afghan-war

    That Slate article above by Saletan was mostly excellent. Yglesias might have more sympathy for Pompeo’s actions, though. Biden, Pompeo, and Yglesias might agree that skepticism for DoD’s analysis of the Afghan situation was highly warranted……

  24. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    23. August 2021 at 08:05

    Travis, Yes, Yglesias is rightly skeptical of the blob. But I don’t agree that we lost the war, rather I think we spent too much in winning it.

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