Person of the (authoritarian nationalist) decade
Imagine an Asian country with nearly 1.4 billion people, mostly non-Muslim. On the edge of the country, close to central Asia and the Himalayas, is a province inhabited by roughly 10 or 15 million Muslims, some of whom agitate for independence. The central government has cracked down on the local population with severely authoritarian and undemocratic policies.
Of course I’m talking about China.
And India.
Meanwhile Japan and South Korea are engaged in a ridiculous spat over national pride. And then there’s the Philippines.
The person that best represents the global zeitgeist is not the leader of any of those countries. Nor is it Trump, or Salvini, or Orban, or Bolsonaro, or Boris Johnson or any other of the usual suspects. They are either long time nationalist thugs or opportunists riding an ideology that they don’t actually believe in.
To truly capture the zeitgeist of the 2010s, you’d need to find someone of unimpeachable integrity. Someone whose courage and honesty are beyond dispute. Someone who prior to the 2010s was a passionate supporter of classical liberal ideals, and who was willing to fight for those ideals at great personal cost.
And that’s because to truly understand the zeitgeist you need to recognize its mysterious power, it’s ability to change people’s minds. There is one person who far more than any other captures the zeitgeist of the 2010s. One person who went from being a liberal saint to an anti-Muslim bigot. Who went from being a passionate supporter of human rights to a jailer of journalists. Who went from being a Nobel Peace Prize winner to an authoritarian thug.
I present to you the person of the decade:
PS. This Atlantic piece sums it up nicely:
Whether or not Suu Kyi has changed, the world around her has. Democratizing Myanmar “would have been easier two decades ago,” says Thaung Tun. He’s right. Twenty years ago, democracy was on the march, authoritarian China wasn’t yet flexing its muscles, neighboring India hadn’t turned decisively to Hindu nationalism, a liberal United States was the sole underwriter of the international order, terrorism was a peripheral threat, and the Pandora’s box of social media had not yet been opened.
Ah, the world we’ve lost. It almost makes me want to cry.
Tags:
10. August 2019 at 17:41
It is sad.
As a Westerner, I had expected higher living standards to lead to more freedom and democracy.
AEI China scholar Derek Scissors refers to president see as a Maoist dictator. President Modi of India appears to inflame religious tensions rather than diffuse such griefs. Large swaths of Latin America, Africa, and the Islamic World appear to be in a long-term shambles in which true human freedoms will be iffy.
I would not blame anybody who prefers to become a non-interventionist in such a world. Productive results appear impossible.
10. August 2019 at 18:22
Scott,
That’s what happens when you rely on people instead of institutions.
That’s what happens when you judge politicians based on beautiful words and beautiful images.
That’s what happens when value democracy of the majority over protection of liberty for the minority.
That’s what happens when you don’t understand that the fundamental nature of government is not Camelot but rather the Sheriff of Nottingham
10. August 2019 at 19:31
The recent development of Burma can be described in one word: China.
That and lifting sanctions prematurely by a certain US president. (The story looks familiar.)
But since Scott likes China so much and despises sanctions, we can’t talk about this part of the story honestly. We have to pretend that it is all a big mystery. (Oh yes Scott, it really is such a mystery.)
Why not simply invent a complete fake news story? Who is creative enough? Maybe Scott has some more creative ideas? Can we blame it on Trump somehow?
10. August 2019 at 20:30
Ben, You said:
“AEI China scholar Derek Scissors refers to president see as a Maoist dictator.”
I’d recommend hat you stop reading someone who thinks Xi is a Maoist. They are both authoritarians, of course, but otherwise about as different as two politicians can be.
dtoh, You said:
“That’s what happens when you rely on people instead of institutions.”
Exactly. And that’s what’s wrong with Trump. He cares only about personal power, and trashes all our institutions. He thinks the government should serve him. He despises minorities, and doesn’t think they are real Americans. Fortunately, our institutions are strong enough to survive him—not true in many other countries.
Christian, You said:
“The recent development of Burma can be described in one word: China.”
And I suppose they are also to blame for India, and Hungary, and Italy, and Brazil, and the Philippines, and the USA, and all the other places where nationalism is on the rise.
I can’t wait to hear your call for sanctions on Saudi Arabia.
BTW, I do support sanctions against countries that steal territory from other countries. Who might that be?
10. August 2019 at 21:02
Do not despair Scott. This era too shall pass. I was just reading about Lin Yutang (“Lin Yutang and China’s Search for Modern Rebirth” by Suoqiao Qian). He was one of the few true liberals in China and was a voice of reason in a chaotic time. Now his local home town is using his name to promote a museum and trying to attract tourist dollars. This is one of the crazy things about China. On the one hand tight political oppression but on the other hand commercial profit using anyone with a recognizable name. As long as memories of Lin Yutang are kept alive (even for a perverted commercial purpose), there will be light and there will be progress.
10. August 2019 at 21:27
I’d recommend hat you stop reading someone who thinks Xi is a Maoist. They are both authoritarians, of course, but otherwise about as different as two politicians can be.–Scott Sumner
I prefer to read from a wide range of sources. Since there is a total news blackout on what happens inside China, in that President Xi has declared the media an organ of the Communist Party of China, I do not know how anyone can claim authoritatively that Xi is, or is not, a Maoist.
From SCMP
“reports have noted that Xi’s decision to re-embrace the Communist Party’s founding ideology comes at a time when he has undertaken drastic measures to strengthen the party’s grip at all levels of society. Many have seen this simply as a ruse to further validate and strengthen ideological control. That is correct, but there is more than meets the eye. It is true that since Xi came to power five years ago, he has repeatedly stressed the party should remain true to its founding mission. The official media has now claimed Xi is the natural heir of Marxism after his political philosophy “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with the Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” was written into the party and state constitutions….importantly, the reintroduction of Marxism is part of Xi’s grand scheme to offer a new governance model based on authoritarianism and economic progress, as compared to that of Western democracies, at a time of profound economic and political upheaval in the world.”
—-30—-
Egads. Is there a difference between a Marxist dictator and a Maoist dictator?
10. August 2019 at 22:26
Scott I don’t think you’re being fair. Islam clearly self-identifies as a religion of global conquest. I mean … that’s what it is. Ask any Muslim and that’s what they’ll tell you. The world rightly belongs to Allah and it is the individual Muslim’s job to win it back for him. Suu Kyi’s job is to defend the Burmese nation. She can’t do that AND grant full citizenship participation to the Rohingya. It’s one or the other.
11. August 2019 at 03:48
“They are either long time nationalist thugs or opportunists riding an ideology that they don’t actually believe in.”
I presume Orban belongs to the latter category (due to the Richard Spencer ban).
Anyway, there is no contradiction whatsoever between recommending domestic democratization and engaging in ethnic politics.
And, anyway, India’s dumb policy to inflame the Kashmir crisis and China’s anti-terror policies in Xinjiang are nothing alike in terms of their geopolitical impact.
Anyway, Kosovo, Chechna, the Taliban, al-Qaeda, Somalia, etc. were all very current issues in 1999.
“He cares only about personal power, and trashes all our institutions. He thinks the government should serve him. He despises minorities, and doesn’t think they are real Americans.”
Uh, no. None of these things are real, at all. You have previously identified the problem with Trump -his dishonesty and submissiveness. Why do you continue making stuff up, I do not know.
11. August 2019 at 05:02
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL
OT, but worth pondering.
Some pundits have posited that hiring in America has slowed as there is not enough workers. But the chart above suggests that job openings have flattened out in the last year.
11. August 2019 at 08:08
The Rosenbergs’ treason pales in comparison to the treason today: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/10/world/europe/sweden-immigration-nationalism.html
11. August 2019 at 08:45
The World is FULL OF “anti-Muslim” bigots. E.g. the number of Europeans who want Muslim immigration stopped is DOUBLE the number who want it to continue. Plus the Chinese are treating Muslims like lepers. Plus Sri Lankans are treating Muslims like sh*t.
Why can’t people appreciate the wonders of female genital mutilation, wife beating, homophobia, killing authors and cartoonists, blowing up statues of Buddha, slaughtering Christians by the hundreds in Nigeria, the fact that most countries run by Muslims are sh*t holes, suicide bombers, the fact that half of Muslims in the world think anyone leaving their faith should be killed, etc etc.
Islam has so much to offer us, I don’t think.
11. August 2019 at 10:44
Everyone, In 1999, bigots still tried to hide their bigotry. They tried to remain polite in public, or in comment sections. I miss those days.
LC, I once read a book by Lin Yutong, something on the art of living.
Ben, You said:
“Since there is a total news blackout on what happens inside China,”
I’m going there soon, I’ll let you know what’s happening in this “blacked out” country.
Even funnier, right after claiming a total news blackout on what’s going on in China, you report a news story on what’s going on in China. It just doesn’t get any better than that.
Kgaard, You said:
“Islam clearly self-identifies as a religion of global conquest.”
That’s just idiotic.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Baqara_256
Are there Muslims who favor the use of force? Sure. But Islam is more than ISIS.
Ralph, You said:
The World is FULL OF “anti-Muslim” bigots.”
Yes, your comment is a good example.
11. August 2019 at 10:50
“They tried to remain polite in public, or in comment sections.”
Uh, no. This was, however, the case for open borders nuts.
@ssumner
Islam is not defined by the Quran+Hadith, just like America is not defined by the Constitution. The early Muslims were surprisingly gentle conquerors, much more political than religious. Today, Islam contains many strands and varieties. The vast majority of terrorism over the past few decades has come from Sunni Muslim militants.
11. August 2019 at 11:33
Scott, Re your claim that my comment is “biggoted”, are you saying that the 200 million or so Europeans who want an end to Muslim immigration to Europe also “biggots”? If so would you care to elaborate? After all, biggotry is defined as holding a view for no good reason, so if it turns out you can’t support your views with good reason, then who’s the bigot?
Second, are you actually DENYING that Muslims tend to support homophobia, female genital mutilation, and the other thoroughly nasty practices I mentioned above? If so I can provide sources for my points.
11. August 2019 at 12:58
I don’t think Suu Kyi has changed. I think there is an unfortunate tendency among Western interventionists to assume that everyone who is anti-government in a non-Western country is a liberal, when that is not the case and many of the people idolized in the West turn out to be just as authoritarian when they are in power.
Another example is the late Nobel Prize Winner Liu Xiaobo. He was idolized in the West as a martyr for opposing the Chinese government, but when you read the stuff he wrote about colonialism and Muslims, it suggests that he’d be harder on the Uighurs than the current Chinese government. That doesn’t justify what the Chinese government did to him, but it does mean that we should be more careful about picking our heroes and more humble about trying to change foreign countries where we don’t understand the zeitgeist.
11. August 2019 at 15:25
Scott: there may be some value in a personal visit to a nation. Perhaps people will not be fearful to talk to you.
I have lived in a Southeast nation for nearly seven years and I still have a limited understanding of the political system here. The problem with news censorship is that even lifelong citizens of a nation have a controlled understanding how it works.
I take it you are not fluent in Mandarin or Cantonese.
I wonder how a visitor to the United States who stayed in Detroit versus a visitor to the United States who stayed in West Los Angeles or Irvine would recount their insights.
But I look forward to hearing about your visit, which should be very interesting.
11. August 2019 at 16:24
Your semi–if not outright—dystopian take on the “10s” is very—as you already said—sad. I am not with you on that.
Before reading this, I did not even know why some people called Burma “Burma” while others call it Myanmar, let alone ever heard of Suu Kyi. I am glad to have learned something.
The first thought that comes to mind, of course, is the observation that “Democracy” (not scare quotes—just so many versions) still is a driving force for many around the world. Remarkable it has found deep roots in historically unlikely places such as Japan and Korea, even as the latter two cannot fully let go of mutual ethnic distrust–or disgust. The US has been the glue—-and Europe too. The second thought, equally obvious, is how religious and ethnic conflict is still a powerful force and will likely be so forever.
I don’t agree we are “more willing” to “not hide” our bigotry. A not so subtle way of you saying we (and by “we”, I assume you mean humanity) are growing more bigoted. I believe the opposite is true—even if it is slow motion. I don’t believe in “end of history” either, of course. Too much is out in the open, even as you feign nostalgia—ironically I assume—for those good old days before social media. Openness is good—it does not mean there is more “bad” out there—there is plenty of it without us having “more”.
I understand your sadness on Burma—I think—-I just assume you followed it in some way—and this result is simply bad.
You are likely a realist about China—If the story of Suu Kyi leads you to call her the face
of the “10s”—-then China is the brain and body—and is a far more tragic story. China will remain a mystery to me—Xi did not have to promote himself in the manner of Mao and essentially name himself leader for life—this will not end well—he could barely contain himself in Hong Kong and almost blew it right there.
11. August 2019 at 18:03
https://i.imgur.com/CAUqKpr.jpg
Protesters in Hong Kong are using the American flag and anthem as a symbol of freedom to rally.
Meanwhile the blog author apologizes for China and hates America.
Fake news is the enemy of the people. Turns the gullible into sheep.
12. August 2019 at 03:33
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/aug/8/acknowledging-robust-economy/
“Acknowledging Trump’s robust economy, Democrats won’t say so, but the evidence is there”
12. August 2019 at 03:54
I wake up and the HK airports are closed. One of things one reads and is assumed by China followers, is the idea that “giving in”, or compromise, is somehow perceived by them as a sign of weakness. Almost as if it is a cultural and psychological feature of their society. I usually think that is one of the laziest thoughts imaginable. Now they face a virtual, and maybe soon, an actual rebellion. Xi and whoever else rules in China have worse choices now then ever. He ought to use his “greatest theorist ever” mind of his to unwind this soon.
12. August 2019 at 04:06
Relying on ‘institutions’ *is** relying on people, as all institutional power is created and run by people.
12. August 2019 at 05:04
Scott
The Hong Kong Chinese are brave doing what they are.
12. August 2019 at 05:07
The pro-Chinese side in Hong Kong already gave in by withdrawing the extradition bill that was originally the subject of the protests.
At this point, the Chinese leadership is probably happy to let the priests continue as all they will accomplish is drive more business to mainland cities that want to replace Hong Kong as the financial center of China. Given Hong Kong’s already privileged status within China, and its history of deporting mainland refugees even during the Great Famine, I doubt the protests will garner much sympathy on the mainland.
12. August 2019 at 05:36
Could it be that the leaders of developing countries, who are the result of a long process to reach democratization of their countries, are opposed to Islam because of its undemocratic values? I don’t mean to single Islam out, as other WESTERN religions have their own authoritarian flavors, but compared to the eastern religions they are must different.
The U.S. has its own version of democracy, which includes the freedom of religion, but it has taken the U.S. a long time to get there I would argue.
On an unrelated note, whats the over under on China establishing its own USSR in the coming decades? Is that what they are ultimately striving for with the belt and road?
12. August 2019 at 05:43
Scott,
“to truly understand the zeitgeist you need to recognize its mysterious power, it’s ability to change people’s minds”
One of the most powerful sentences you wrote lately. At the same time, none of your commenters seem to have picked up on that, your main point.
While I’m just as horrified as you at the zeigeist, in fact as a cosmopolitan with a mixed race family I sort of feel like I was Jewish in the 1930’s, in terms of global popularity, I also look at Hong Kong and I think, this is odd. I don’t know what it means, I don’t know what it will lead to, but it is a clear outlier: a marker for a change of tide? An anomaly? An anachronism? Either way, it is odd.
One facet of what’s happening now, is this: democracy without liberal values. Classical liberals such as Tocqueville have warned against the dangers of that. Democracy and freedom are often related, but occur on orthogonal dimensions. You can clearly have either one w/o the other. Ideally of course you’d like to have both together, but that is not automatically so.
12. August 2019 at 07:25
Isn’t it possible that liberalism isn’t a stable equilibrium? That it was a transient flash that can’t be sustained due to fundamental incompatibilities with human nature? Like, why does reality HAVE to be structured in a way that your preferred ideology (and honestly mine too) is sustainable? Following history, it seems ethnic-religious conflict and ridiculous spats over national pride pop up an awful lot.
Maybe this is convergent evolution, maybe this is just the way things are, tribalism might be adaptive, tribal societies might emerge and out compete non-tribal or less tribal. Liberalism really only sprang up as an idea a few hundred years ago, and only really flowered recently, in the bubble of Anglosphere technological dominance. It sure doesn’t look like Hong Kong is taking over China, maybe the world is fundamentally nasty and we need to recalibrate our expectations of what is possible.
12. August 2019 at 07:57
To truly understand the Zeitgeist and not get brainwashed by blog authors who are asleep to the D party’s propaganda machine (MSM), one needs to understand the elite have been raping, torturing, and ritually sacrificing INNOCENT CHILDREN.
Fake News has been PROTECTING these sick monsters.
12. August 2019 at 08:08
Mark, You said:
“I don’t think Suu Kyi has changed. I think there is an unfortunate tendency among Western interventionists to assume that everyone who is anti-government in a non-Western country is a liberal,”
You and I are not mind readers, but one thing is beyond dispute. Her public rhetoric has changed. Once she expressed liberal values, and now she expresses authoritarian nationalist values. That’s certainly a “change”.
I disagree about Liu Xiaobo, although obviously we’ll never know.
Ben, You said:
“Perhaps people will not be fearful to talk to you.”
Perhaps? On my previous trips to China I had no trouble speaking with people (through a translator.) Maybe it’s harder now, but I doubt it.
Michael, You said:
“Your semi–if not outright—dystopian take on the “10s” is very—as you already said—sad. I am not with you on that.”
It’s hard for me to understand how someone cannot be disappointed by the 2010s. Even if you like Trump and defend Trump, how can anyone defend people like Bolsonaro, Modi, Xi, Duterte, and Salvini? (Three of these are really big countries, BTW) Look around the world at what’s going on.
As far as your second comment on HK, I agree.
JCU, I agree.
Derrick, There’s a huge difference between opposing Islam’s ideology, and brutally repressing Muslims.
mbka, You said:
“One of the most powerful sentences you wrote lately. At the same time, none of your commenters seem to have picked up on that, your main point.”
Most commenters ignore the post they are commenting on. It’s just a soapbox to spout off on their favorite issue.
I’m also puzzled by Hong Hong, although I suppose even that could be seen as a sort of “nationalism”. I hope they succeed in their demands, but I expect it to end badly.
Tim, Yes, it’s possible. I still liberalism as the long run “mega-trend” and things like socialism and nationalism as bumps in the road. But obviously you need to take the long view. Things looked bleak in the 1930s and 1940s, which were followed by the best 60 years ever.
12. August 2019 at 08:13
This blog is the blog author’s soapbox…
Accuses others…
DEFINE PSYCHOLOGICAL PROJECTION
12. August 2019 at 11:34
Scott: Is this a foretaste of the future? China with its belt and road program buys and restores the Greek port of Piraeus. The EU wants to charge China at the UN with human rights abuses. Greece stops it.
12. August 2019 at 15:22
Art, Maybe it is, but is the following so bad:
Let each individual EU country charge China with human rights violations in the UN, and if Greece refuses to go along, that’s still a pretty powerful message, right?
BTW, our current President seemed to support Chinese repression in 1989, calling the protesters “rioters”. I suspect he has the same view of Hong Kong, i.e., sympathetic to Xi. But then he’s always had a soft spot in his heart for authoritarians. I’m concerned about China’s human rights, but I’m also concerned that we now have a president who defends brutal thugs like Putin, Duterte, MBS, etc.
12. August 2019 at 17:10
Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia: multiethnic states that failed — in the 1990s, in Europe.
The rhetoric may be a bit more open now outside the West (though I am not all that sure there has been much change), but the reality is that multi-ethnicism is hard to do. And it turns out, democratisation does not make it any easier. The places where it works tend to have one overwhelmingly dominant majority group and lots of small groups (Kenya and Botswana are the obvious examples). Australia, with its Anglo-Celtic majority and lots and lots of other groups is another.
It also helps if none of the minority groups are Muslim (particularly not territorially distinct Muslims). Looking around Burma/Myanmar’s neighbourhood, Thailand’s experience with its Muslim minority is not encouraging. Nor is the Philippines with its Muslim minority. Even Australia has had trouble with Muslim Lebanese in Sydney (but Christian Lebanese nowhere). Islam has lots of bloody borders and often does not play well with others.
There are lots of things to regret about what’s going on, but to the Burmese, it may well look to them as if they are just getting in first.
13. August 2019 at 05:02
Scott, I am disappointed in many things——including the 10s——and including the President and his would be opponents. I do sometimes think there is an equivalent of tectonic plate shift seeking to reach a new equilibrium——which means getting worse before getting better. Maybe I agree with you more than I want to.
13. August 2019 at 05:34
Lorenzo,
err, so the US … didn’t work? And to mention Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia as multi-ethnic, when all these people were, well, WHITE? And Slavs too if you want to split hairs? They fell apart in the same way that Europe is divided along national lines, but not ethnic lines. If you call Czechoslovakia multi-ethnic, then you’d have to call Italy, Spain, even France (Basques, Bretons, Corses, you name it) the same, I won’t even mention “Britain”, i.e. the (less and less) United Kingdom of 4 ethnicities. What about Belgium, failing multi ethnically since the 19th Century. The Germans who haven’t even been a nation state until the 1870s and composed of a whole bunch of territories that used to wage wars against each other. Oh wait, all of South America is multi ethnic by that definition – Argentina, Chile, with their strong admixture of German and Italian immigrants along side the Spanish; Peru, Bolivia, Mexico, Guatemala, I don’t know where to stop, with their strong native American components mixed with the European additions, and don’t even mention Brazil where race is a factor too, on tope of European and Asian “ethnicities”, oh yeah and all of the Caribbean with their former slave populations. NONE of these are single ethnic or single race even. And Africa? Name a single postcolonial nation state that’s not multi ethnic, and no, not all of them are in civil wars (although some of them are).
Multi ethnicity is the norm in the nation states of the world. In the older nations, the multi ethnicity has been forgotten and the national sentiment became stronger than the ethnic one, that’s all. Nationalism is the illusion that people belong together because of common origins, in most current nation states those origins are anything but common.
13. August 2019 at 10:03
Everyone, I’m not sure why people are trying to defend the Burmese government. Even if you don’t like Muslim immigration, that has no bearing on the horrible atrocities being committed by the Burmese government against Burmese people who happen to be Muslim.
13. August 2019 at 20:27
Maybe it was bored at a house for 15 years.
14. August 2019 at 11:48
Communism was fairly widespread over that 60 year period. Admittedly, it was spreading into the third world, where things generally weren’t great beforehand.