Oh no! Twelve years of Trump :(

Early in the evening I was rooting for a Biden win. But when I saw how close the election was, I wondered if we’d be better off with a Trump win. That would mean at most 8 years of Trump, then we get the virus out of our system.

Now with a “stolen election” we face a scenario where Trump returns in 2024 (possibly from jail, just as Napoleon returned from Elba) and runs against an old and likely unsuccessful Democratic president, who disappointed his supporters by being unable to get anything through the Senate. Or perhaps against a minority woman candidate. Trump will say, “Remember how good you had it in 2019!”

Meanwhile, we face 4 years of non-stop Trump tweets. A grand total of 12 years of Trump trolling. You heard it here first; Trump wins the 2024 election. (From the guy that was wrong about 2016 and (probably) 2020.)

But I’m actually feeling pretty good about my prediction for this election. I predicted a huge gap between the roughly 8% lead that Biden had in the national polls (at 538) and the final outcome in the tipping point state—perhaps a 5% gap. Now it looks like the actual gap will be at least 7%, as Biden will probably win the tipping point state by about 1%, if not less.

Here’s what I said on November 1st:

Let’s say the national polls are roughly correct, or at least within 3%. In that case Trump loses even if he wins Pennsylvania, and even though PA is the mostly like swing state. That’s because if the national polls are within 3%, then any extremely surprising result in one state (like PA) must be offset by a weaker Trump performance somewhere else (like Arizona or North Carolina.) If Biden wins the popular vote by 5%, he will win the election. If he wins by 4% he’ll probably win the election. If he wins by 3% then Trump will probably win the election.

Here’s another way to think about polling errors. Last time around, the national error was 2% and the polling error in midwestern swing states was 4% or more. But that means the polling error in places like Arizona was less than 2%. So unless the national polling error is really large, another big miss in the Midwest would imply that Biden is likely to win states like Arizona and North Carolina.

If we assume that Wisconsin and Michigan are out of reach, then Trump doesn’t need to just hold Pennsylvania; he needs to win all the states on the list above except Nevada.

[Technically speaking, Biden picking up WI, MI and AZ would yield a tie, but Biden’s also leading in Omaha. Believe it or not, Omaha might well be the “swing state” in an election where Trump wins PA and loses AZ. I only know one Omaha resident (Buffett) and I assume he’s voting for Biden.]

At the moment, it looks very possible that Omaha will be the deciding EC vote. (I believe commenter Christian List predicted exactly this scenario.)

BTW, the most scientific way to think about prediction accuracy is point estimates, not who wins the horse race. In 2016, one pollster bragged after predicting Trump by 3%, a 5% error when the average poll was off by just 2% (in the other direction) in the popular vote. That’s the sense in which betting markets did very well this year, although of course they also (probably) got the “horse race” correct.

PS. Warning: We won’t know the popular vote margin for days, as the California mail-ins are counted very slowly and will add millions to the Biden margin. But even if the popular vote is not all that far off from polls (say a 4% to 5% popular margin), the polls had a 5% lead for Biden in the predicted tipping point state. Because betting markets gave Biden a 65% chance of winning, the implied point estimate of the tipping point margin was 1% or 2% Biden in the betting markets. Over the course of October, the betting markets saw this election much more clearly than the polls, even if the market went a bit irrational for a brief period last night.

PPS. Stock investors love this. I suspect today’s big increase reflected the fact that markets like Biden better than Trump on stuff Biden can control (like trade wars and immigration) and like a GOP Senate as a block to higher corporate taxes.

PPPS. I should be happy about a likely Biden win and a GOP Senate to create gridlock, but I’m disgusted by the increasing banana republicization of America. Our president says the election is being stolen. Is this Bolivia?

PPPPS. I watched Borat last night. My enjoyment was hindered by the thought (at the time) that these people might actually win. Yes, I know, in the real world Trump voters are no better or worse than Biden voters, but movies manipulate a person’s perspective.

PPPPPS. I agree with John Cochrane about California.


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56 Responses to “Oh no! Twelve years of Trump :(”

  1. Gravatar of Mark Z Mark Z
    4. November 2020 at 10:47

    Maybe the secret to Switzerland’s success is referendums. It runs contrary to Garrett Jones’s thesis, but maybe voters make more rational decisions when directly deciding the issue than in picking delegates to decide? Then again, I wonder if referendum voters are generally smarter than voters for high profile offices? In which case it may actually be consistent with Jones’s pro-elite hypothesis.

    In any case, the results in California’s propositions were good news. But what’s really stark is how well funded some of the biggest losers were. The pro-discrimination campaign out-raised the anti side by a factor of like >10 to 1 I think, got big donations from a slew of billionaires and big companies. There’s clearly a chasm between the ultra-rich “looney-left” and the general public.

  2. Gravatar of sean sean
    4. November 2020 at 10:52

    Depends on the progressives. GOP likely rejects a Trump nominee if Wokeism, identity politics, etc are rejected by the left.

    The election looks like the moderates in both parties will be deciding what happens as they will have to work together. That has the potential to really calm down this country.

    The liberal media won’t be able to run nothing besides Trump attacks for 4 years which should calm them down and their base.

    I only know people who reject both sides of American politics right now which in the media has been dominated by the wokes and Trump trolling them. Its a good situation for the middle to re-emerge.

  3. Gravatar of Cartesian Theatics Cartesian Theatics
    4. November 2020 at 11:11

    I swear Megamind is out there somewhere orchestrating this election sequence. Let’s hope he turns good before it’s too late.

  4. Gravatar of Gene Frenkle Gene Frenkle
    4. November 2020 at 11:15

    Florida voters passed a phased in $15 minimum wage with 60% of the vote while Trump comfortably beat Biden in the state. NC re-elected a Democrat governor that ran on expanding Medicaid while Trump looks like he will win the state. Remember—Trump won moderates in the 2016 Republican primary while Trump’s strongest supporters in 2020 are a strange mix of blue collar moderates and right wing nuts. So in a state like Wyoming the Trump supporter also votes for Liz Cheney who voted against the most important issue to the West Virginia Trump voter that votes for Manchin and bailing out the coal miners pension fund with $10 billion. So right now the Republican Party appears to be an anti-Democrat platform without a coherent ideology. Democrats on the other hand have a very clear path going forward by running on moderate liberal change like Medicaid expansion, $15 minimum wage, parental leave, cannabis legalization.

  5. Gravatar of harry harry
    4. November 2020 at 12:02

    Of course he’s not going to run in 2024. If he lost, he would simply retire. Billionaires don’t want to run for office. They prefer to be n their private jets with beautiful woman. The only reason Trump ran was because he thought he could make a difference in people’s lives.

    Anyone with a brain knows that corruption exists on both sides of the aisle. And since we are talking about democratic districts (overwhelmingly democratic) with the fraud allegations, you can be sure this is NOT even close to being over.

    Arizona is still up in the air with much of the rural vote uncounted. DNC already violated several rules in PA, one of which was distributing Biden marketing material at the polling stations. Arizona has several discrepancies including the distribution of markers, which had to be hand counted. Philadelphia, rated the most corrupt city in America by several independent groups (both foreign and domestic) refused to allow the Trump team to “watch the pollsters”. They also had a very timely polling booth malfunction (meaning more hand counted votes in Philly). Not to mention, the senator of PA called the commissioner of elections before the polls started and is recorded saying “I know you will do the right thing”.

    Nevada rural vote is still out there and uncounted, and there has been alleged fraud in Nevada. Votes with DJT’s name on them was found in a dumpster.

    And btw, for those that keep pointing to the popular vote. You clearly fail to grasp the most fundamental concept of America. America is a republic. People in rural areas don’t want their freedoms eroded by city dwellers. And city dwellers don’t like rural areas because of their “simplicity”. Both have very different interests. And people in rural areas need a voice! When their factories get shipped abroad by city dwellers, they deserve to be heard at the ballot box.

    The electoral vote gives them that voice. The electoral vote represents a republic with different interests. Trump is right when he says this group is being disenfranchised by urban elite who know nothing of their wants, desires, and lifestyle.

  6. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    4. November 2020 at 12:17

    Mark, Good points. I’ve always been a fan of the Swiss system.

    Sean, Hope so, but I worry about that damn internet.

    Gene, You said:

    “So right now the Republican Party appears to be an anti-Democrat platform without a coherent ideology.”

    The GOP didn’t even have a platform this year. What’s Trump’s plan for his second term? I don’t know.

    Harry, Yes, it’s still very close. But this:

    “The only reason Trump ran was because he thought he could make a difference in people’s lives.”

    Come on, Trump only cares about one person’s life.

  7. Gravatar of janice janice
    4. November 2020 at 12:37

    The electoral college should not even be mentioned, yet somehow these radical leftists want to destroy it. If you eliminate NY and CA, the country is Conservative so there is no reason to determine elections based on the wishes of people living in two states.

    Trump will probably still win this. So many allegations of fraud in PA now. And MI had 100K votes (a statistical improbability) magically vote for Biden from 3-5am. And low and behold its in Detroit where corruption is rampant. If you want to see living proof of how left policies destroy a nation, just take a look at the dystopian city of Detroit.

    My prediction: supreme court invalidates the election in these states based on proof of fraud, at which point a second election will take place.

  8. Gravatar of Christian List Christian List
    4. November 2020 at 12:44

    Scott,

    Your predictions and analysis of the ongoing elections were great and precise.

    I love your new Trump bet because it’s refreshing, bold, out-of-the-box.

    Can one become president with a criminal record? Up to now I would have said no, people don’t vote for you, but it’s true, the US constitution doesn’t say anywhere that you can’t become president.

    I’m still in favor of Biden making a deal with Trump or Trump with Biden: Immunity, no childish, revenge-driven prosecution, pardon if necessary, and in return Trump’s political retirement. He may say something sometimes, but not more than Obama does already.

    However, I don’t see anyone at the GOP right now who has sufficient status and power instincts. Maybe Romney, but he will be so old in 2024. Trump would be too old as well. Will it be Romney v. Trump? Grandpa against grandpa? Many western democracies no longer have a pool of good politicians with stature at the right age, it is quite frightening.

    What I find interesting about the films of people like Michael Moore and Sacha Baron Cohen is how they serve the most primitive prejudices. As you rightly say, it’s a manipulation. But many of these artists and many viewers don’t see it as manipulation, they see it as reality. This is their view of the world, not entirely, but in large parts, and in this world they themselves are kind, fair, and basically unprejudiced. Moore is worse than Cohen though. Cohen, sometimes, can at least make jokes about himself, at least I hope so.

    Thanks for the honorable mention, I think I can still lose PA and GA, but if not, then my bet was really good. Unfortunately, I only do sports betting, the German state does not allow bets on political outcomes. Quite a scandal.

  9. Gravatar of xu xu
    4. November 2020 at 13:07

    Trump will win.
    God is with him against the socialists.
    And of course what makes America great is that it is a republic, not a democracy. Popular vote doesn’t matter. Each state has a voice. I love it.

    DJT is an American hero. Even Amish came out for him. No way Biden wins unless fraud. I read 89% voter turnout in Wisconsin even though past election cycles only 68%. That is impossible. Those votes were manufactured and USA lawyers will get to the bottom of it as they always do.

    I also noticed people posting piles of bricks in every city. Left wing mob funded by soros in case trump wins? Probably!

  10. Gravatar of Justin Justin
    4. November 2020 at 13:13

    –“However, I don’t see anyone at the GOP right now who has sufficient status and power instincts. Maybe Romney, but he will be so old in 2024. Trump would be too old as well. Will it be Romney v. Trump?”–

    No way Romney has a chance.

    The GOP base wanted Trump, and Trump is very different from Romney. A slight loss, which may well be widely perceived as a stolen election, is not going to convince the GOP base that Trump was a mistake. Trump is going to be quite old in 2024, a bit older than Biden is today. I definitely wouldn’t put it past him to try again. But Trump’s appeal is in his performance, whereas Biden’s appeal is that he wouldn’t scare the moderates. Trump probably only won in 2016 because Hillary scared the moderates. If Trump’s aging becomes evident as it did for Biden, there’s no way he’d be able to come back. And as for Romney, in any case I’m not sure why the GOP would go for Mitt when a much younger Mike Pence is likely to be an option.

    No idea if he’d throw his hat in the ring, but my thought is that Tucker Carlson would be an interesting candidate. It seems he’s the type of personality that might be able to bridge the gap between die hard Trump supporters and regular Republicans. He also happens to be young. He may not have the power instincts, and he might fall flat when trying to be a politician rather than a pundit. He might also not be crazy enough to try getting into the cage fight of Presidential politics. But the thought is interesting.

  11. Gravatar of Rinat Kurbaniyazov Rinat Kurbaniyazov
    4. November 2020 at 14:05

    I grew up in Soviet Union. And I’m 100% sure the left in your country is the true totalitarian party. Maybe because you live in media control you are easily fooled, but from outside we can all see this. Reason they tell you Trump is stealing, because they are really stealing. Reason Trump is corrupt, is because they are really corrupt. You see its lies upon lies that try to give them credibility. If they know they cheat, then they know he will defend in court. And that foretelling of event is used for credibility purpose with gullible mind. Your country is battling a monster. Maybe CCP help. Maybe RU help. But it is monster party for sure.

  12. Gravatar of Carl Carl
    4. November 2020 at 14:29

    The proposition results were heartening although not perfect by any stretch. Prop 14 is a boondoggle and Prop 19 adds yet one more contraption to our Rube Goldberg property laws. But it does give one pause to see direct democracy yielding more reasonable results than representative democracy.

  13. Gravatar of Steve Steve
    4. November 2020 at 14:33

    I’m disgusted by the increasing banana republicization of America.

    Look on the bright side. Florida was a shining example of how to run an election even during a pandemic, in sharp contrast to 2000. I guess 3 consecutive Republican governors (Crist, Scott, DeSantis) have cleaned up the residual banana peels of a formerly Democrat leaning state.

    The states that can’t count votes in a confidence inspiring way, are the ones the didn’t care about trust in their vote tally.

  14. Gravatar of mario mario
    4. November 2020 at 15:03

    I cannot believe America allows a company to silence its president?
    “The right to free speech”???
    What is wrong with America these days?
    Twitter should be stopped or investigated. No way that should happen. Even in Italy that would not happen.

  15. Gravatar of Carl Carl
    4. November 2020 at 15:23

    @mario
    You’d be putting Twitter on trial for being a partisan private entity. That’s not illegal.

  16. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    4. November 2020 at 15:28

    Christian, I like Romney more than I used to, but his anti-Trumpism is toxic with GOP voters. He voted to convict Trump.

    Mario, I don’t think you understand what “free speech” is.

    Everyone, As for you Trumpistas . . . Politics is a helluva drug.

  17. Gravatar of Gerald Gerald
    4. November 2020 at 15:31

    Many videos that show people burning Trumps ballots.
    He will easily win that in the Supreme Court.
    At least 4-6 weeks of litigation coming.
    Possible redo in those states.

  18. Gravatar of Carl Carl
    4. November 2020 at 15:51

    Good call by Christian List. If everything holds now, it will be Clark County, Nevada, home of Las Vegas, that gets Biden to precisely 270 electoral votes. Talk about irony.

  19. Gravatar of Cameron Blank Cameron Blank
    4. November 2020 at 15:54

    “Now with a “stolen election” we face a scenario where Trump returns in 2024 (possibly from jail, just as Napoleon returned from Elba) and runs against an old and likely unsuccessful Democratic president, who disappointed his supporters by being unable to get anything through the Senate.”

    Seems pretty plausible we will have a booming economy and be over Covid by 2024, so if Biden can run on a good economy, beating COVID, AND not be a terrible person he might be tough to beat in 2024.

  20. Gravatar of Todd Kreider Todd Kreider
    4. November 2020 at 16:10

    “so if Biden can run on a good economy, beating COVID, AND not be a terrible person he might be tough to beat in 2024.”

    Joe Biden, campaigning at the age of 81?

  21. Gravatar of Cameron Blank Cameron Blank
    4. November 2020 at 16:17

    Todd,

    If Trump is likely to run again he may well decide to.

  22. Gravatar of Ray Lopez Ray Lopez
    4. November 2020 at 17:18

    Ssumner is never wrong is he? Like his monetarist theories, his “wishy washy” predictions are not falsifiable. You can read whatever you want in them, like in the predictions from a good fortune teller.

    But the early 2024 betting markets are saying this: (Forbes) “Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for President in 2024? That’s what gamblers are saying, as election betting fever is in full effect at sportsbooks and online betting sites across the country.”

    I personally would like to see Ivanka Trump run against AOC. I don’t care who wins, they would be a welcome relief, a sight for sore eyes, compared to the traditional grumpy old white men like Trump, Biden or our host for that matter.

  23. Gravatar of Jason Jason
    4. November 2020 at 17:25

    Well Scott,
    It looks like #BeijingBiden is on track to win.
    Good news is, it was a squeaker and Republicans barely kept the Senate. So the lunatic plans to pack the courts, among other insane plots are kept on hold.

    The bad news is foreign policy. Hello to Chamberlainesque China appeasement. Increased risk of confrontation with Russia. And North Korea. Back to the grotesque Iran deal which endangered the security of the second country I care most about. I have family on my mothers side in Israel so that has me concerned.

    Also increased censorship by our cultural elites and guardians of truth. The slow erosion of our Second Amendment.

    (By the way, did you hear our new likely President, Kamala endorse equity? 😡🤬🤦‍♂️😒)

    Which side Scott? Which side is more authoritarian and loving of totalitarian tactics? Which side contributed more to the banana republicanization?
    Which side shames people so much that they ARE AFRAID TO TALK TO POLLSTERS.
    (I’ve been driven CRAZY the amount of pollsters I’ve all ignored texting me whether I’m going to vote for Joe and Kamala. I didn’t respond to any of them as I voted for that blithering orange idiot/still American versus the Beijing sellout.

  24. Gravatar of janice janice
    4. November 2020 at 18:23

    Project Veritas just nailed the democrats in a bombshell report.
    Pretty much game. set. match at this point.
    Your party is corrupt, and its on video.
    Trump 2020 victory now assured.

    Sumner tears ever so sweet 🙂

  25. Gravatar of Benjamin Cole Benjamin Cole
    4. November 2020 at 18:40

    I would not put vote fraud past either party. BTW, read up on the history of LBJ’s wins in Texas. Has human nature changed in last 60 years?

    The question is whether the fraud (on either side) is obvious enough to be seen and proven, and then can the Supreme Court intrude on state matters?

    In 2000, the Supreme Court found a way to stop Florida officials from controlling procedures regarding their own election. Can the Supremes do it again?

    Too soon to tell.

    This go ’round the power elites seem aligned with Biden. The Supremes may back off.

  26. Gravatar of Sean Sean
    4. November 2020 at 18:59

    Lol people thinking trump can take this too the Supreme Court.

    The Supreme Court doesn’t have the political capital to force a re-vote for this. And I’m sympathetic to the idea those states may have cheated. The Supreme Court as an institution isn’t going to spend it on Trump.

  27. Gravatar of Steve Steve
    4. November 2020 at 20:17

    There’s a cynical adage: Republicans count votes by day, so Democrats know how many votes to fabricate by night.

    This is true even in unimportant cases. I remember Kelly Ayotte up by 5k at 2am in 2016, only for Dems to discover ~5.7k votes for Shaheen at 10am. All from Durham or Hanover. Whopping victory!

    Happens every time. GOP efficiently counts votes, Dems match those votes 1.05x in the darkness of night.

    Also Sumner is a clown. Disregard unless you like mirroring the pot addicted libertarian-authoritarian clownshow!

  28. Gravatar of ee ee
    4. November 2020 at 20:21

    I’m not impressed by the prediction that the tipping point state would have a lower margin than the (expected) popular vote. That was a common prediction. I am impressed that you seem to have predicted the popular vote polling error. Nate doesn’t seem to think that the polling error is predictable (there are no shy Trump voters) based on 2018 and various right-wing European election flops in recent years.

    The shy voter dilemma (if it exists?) in polling is interesting because there are so many moving parts and the feedback loop is so slow (big elections every couple years). Voters should want to respond to polls in order to protect themselves from fraudulent elections. Pollsters must be tempted to add questions to tease out shyness but each question is a cost and they’ll lack history. Modelers like Nate will have to consider including non-poll parameters in the final projection and will likely see less certain (closer) forecasts going forward.

    No one is talking about the elephant in the room that the Senate and Judiciary are taken hostage by a minority in the country for the foreseeable future and the social friction that will cause.

  29. Gravatar of mbka mbka
    4. November 2020 at 20:27

    Scott,

    on Cochrane and California: I believe it’s more of Timur Kuran’s “Private Truths – Public Lies” (preference falsification, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preference_falsification), btw same reason why Trump voters don’t tell the pollsters their true preferences.

    You won’t believe how many European Marxists I know, of my parents’ generation, that own extensive property, rent it out at market rates, live off inherited capital, or became bank directors… I am not making this up, I have specific examples for each of these. It always sounds better to profess the good of the public while privately no one wants to actually pay those taxes, or have someone else decide who you can hire.

    Swiss democracy works because people vote on so many local issues that they become good at making decisions that way. But national politics are also farmed out to a representative system.

  30. Gravatar of Mark Z Mark Z
    4. November 2020 at 20:45

    mbka, I’ve known a lot of socialists who fit that bill. They seem 100% aware of their own hypocrisy. I think they believe that it’s pointless for an individual to try to help the working class voluntarily, which is precisely why the state must do it. I’m not sure that it’s actually preference falsification. I think it’s basically that they think there’s not point in being the only cooperator in a society-wide prisoner’s dilemma; better to focus on trying to force everyone else to cooperate.

    Or a more sinister interpretation: by being successful, exploitative capitalists, they’re hastening capitalism’s downfall. Donating all your wealth to the poor in a capitalist society actually eases working class frustration, and thus prolongs the oppressive system. (I’m sort of being facetious, don’t think socialists actually seek to make workers miserable in their private lives to hasten the revolution; but I could imagine some socialists believing that private charity is ultimately harmful until capitalism is overthrown).

  31. Gravatar of Tom Brown Tom Brown
    4. November 2020 at 23:15

    @Christian List,

    I’m in favor of Biden making a deal with Trump and his family and henchmen too: Biden will look the other way while they flee to a country that will have them (with no extradition treaty with the US). And also I hope that country is Venezuela. I want to hear Trump singing the praises of his new host, Maduro. And I want to see Hannity, Limbaugh, Levin and Tucker become a Maduro fans overnight. I would laugh myself silly. Not that I like Maduro, but it could be a feather in his cap. I don’t think Putin will have any use for Trump, so probably he won’t be let in there.

  32. Gravatar of mbka mbka
    4. November 2020 at 23:53

    Mark Z,

    the socialists-in-name-only that I know are mostly unaware of their hypocrisy. They’d say things such as “well I rent out at prevailing rates so that’s fair, right?”; in terms of inherited wealth they take it for granted, those who hide income from the tax man while receiving government subsidies are proud of their cunning, the rest operates basically on two brains, one for what they think should be done publicly (altruism) and one for what they do privately (egotism, as defended as something like a human right). I’ve also heard one that would say, well as long as capitalism exists let’s benefit from it. etc.

    But I agree that some of the smarter theorists, say Chomsky, would argue along your lines. Honestly I don’t think most people don’t have the self awareness that they are just people, like everybody else, and that if they prescribe the Grape Cool-Aid, they better drink it too.

  33. Gravatar of mbka mbka
    4. November 2020 at 23:55

    Should have read: “Honestly I don’t think most people have the self awareness …”

  34. Gravatar of Cartesian Theatrics Cartesian Theatrics
    5. November 2020 at 02:52

    Megamind is still at work. Audio tapes leaking, USPS whistle blower in MI, videos of burning ballots, county wards showing up with 200% voter participation… Looking like a shit show to me.

  35. Gravatar of rinat rinat
    5. November 2020 at 04:24

    Many pictures and video of fraud by democrats.
    The riots are preplanned. Citizens have spotted piles of bricks around strategic locations in major cities.
    I think this is civil war now. Trump is an American hero. He is the populist president trying to save America from the corrupt. And the people will not allow Antifa and Biden to steal this. They will go to war to protect their hero. They love him too much.

  36. Gravatar of Michael Rulle Michael Rulle
    5. November 2020 at 04:51

    CBS news has a poll (!) out which says voters who voted in the last week voted 54-38 for Trump. Have no real idea what that means. But if true it is an oddity. Mailing un —requested ballots may be a form of push voting. In Nj they just sent you the ballots. In the end, even as I am against this (for this year as we have no real standards—but it is here to stay) I found it convenient.

    But there is no question that psychologically I felt disconnected from the vote. I had to hunt down a drop box (which oddly was behind the police station) drop it in (it seemed full because sound of putting the ballots in was as if it fell a few inches).

    I kept thinking, they have to collect these, check signatures against a book or computer, check the name against an address. Open up two envelops per vote without ripping the ballot. Just to count a vote. In old machine wait on line voting all of this time is absorbed by the voter, now it is absorbed by the vote counter.

    Admittedly, it takes a pretty sophisticated operation to engineer a massive fraudulent vote count——but one can certainly imagine how it would be done. Wisconsin did have a120k “vote dump” of Biden voters —-as everyone knows by now. Does not mean it was fraudulent——but I do not know how that happens. As they were counting over the Course of an hour or 2 they simply forgot to put in Biden votes and then remembered?

    Yes, apparently.

    For fans of the “red zone” football channel, a joke when an unexpected player has great stats is “how many of you had Jo Blow on your fantasy card”. Well my joke is “how many of you had GOP picking up House seats, holding the senate with upsets, Trump winning Florida, likely winning PA, being ahead by 5-12 % in Michigan and Wisconsin with 70+% counted and losing the election?

  37. Gravatar of Michael Rulle Michael Rulle
    5. November 2020 at 04:57

    Oh yes, and Trump behind by 2% in the National Vote (50-48) 2 days after election and losing?

  38. Gravatar of Michael Rulle Michael Rulle
    5. November 2020 at 05:16

    If one were planning on cheating——-what would you announce as the last uncounted votes? It is obvious. Your party’s stronghold in the state. So where are the last uncounted votes in PA and Ga? Philly and Atlanta. Where were the last uncounted votes in Michigan? Detroit. Wisconsin? Milwaukee.

    If GOP could cheat they would. But they can’t. They control no cities, where it is efficient. No proof—-in fact virtual slander. I say virtual because I am not feeling it is literal. So I am slandering the Democrats. Just like they did for 4 years on collusion and impeachment.

  39. Gravatar of Michael Rulle Michael Rulle
    5. November 2020 at 05:58

    Yeah, I am obsessive but so what. At least fellow reader Rinit K can read through the noise and know what Dems really are. Only East Europeans and Cubans see the obvious in America.

    Kim Strassel, of WSJ says that Milwaukee Sentinal says 71% of registered voters voted. But, when she looks at total votes it looks like 89% did. As she says “wow”. Unless there was hi same day registration of about 30% increase. Does not mean fraud. But it needs to be explained.

    She has asked readers to check her numbers.

  40. Gravatar of Michael Rulle Michael Rulle
    5. November 2020 at 06:14

    Yeah, I am obsessive but so what. At least fellow reader Rinit K can read through the noise and know what Dems really are. Only East Europeans and Cubans see the obvious in America.

    Kim Strassel, of WSJ says that Milwaukee Sentinal says 71% of registered voters voted. But, when she looks at total votes it looks like 89% did. As she says “wow”. Unless there was hi same day registration of about 30% increase. Does not mean fraud. But it needs to be explained.

    She has asked readers to check her numbers.

    Alito and Roberts. For those who don’t care. A 4-4 ruling (the evil Barrett recused herself) occurred on a PA case. As the Roberts opinion ruled in not over turning a lower federal court decision, Pennsylvania’s Court decision to refute the plainly written law not permitting post election ballots to be counted (Roberts agreed that the PA Court was obviously wrong but said it was a state decision—-absurd given that it effects a federal election) has led to this outcome in PA.

    Alito, who served in or around Philly, (I have had court decisions in Philly—-I learned a lot about how easy it is to call “an apple a football”) wrote the opposite opinion to Roberts. Roberts, rather than erasing this issue now, left it open for review later with is vote and written opinion. That may yet happen—-it should—-even if re:election it is moot. And Barrett will be voting this time.

  41. Gravatar of Michael Rulle Michael Rulle
    5. November 2020 at 06:17

    Strassel——in Wisconsin

  42. Gravatar of Michael Rulle Michael Rulle
    5. November 2020 at 06:36

    My last one. I finally found something I agree with Hillary on—never concede. Detroit has more registered voters than eligible voters. I think people may be surprised how long this can go on—-particularly if there is proof —-for all to see—-not my conjecture—which seems plausible to me.

  43. Gravatar of mbka mbka
    5. November 2020 at 07:39

    I don’t get the hand wringing over mail-in ballots. Lots of countries use them, I only ever voted by mail in the past 30 years for mine. My biggest issue always was that it may not arrive in time (my country sends them out too close to the deadline to be really safe with international postage). But I never once doubted that the count itself would pose any issue with fraud – they’re identified by name on the outside, so you can check who voted and who didn’t. Registration must be done way in advance. Inside the named envelope, there’s another envelope that’s anonymous. That’s it. All votes are counted in presence of observers of all parties, so no one can complain after the fact that things happened while no one was looking. Not really rocket science.

  44. Gravatar of sty.silver sty.silver
    5. November 2020 at 08:03

    I’m just going to respond to the discussion of last post here so that you see it.

    I think it’s kind of plausible though by no means obvious that the initial projection of 2:1 for Biden was more accurate than the 9:1 that 538 gave him.

    It’s not easy to debunk the hypothesis that 538’s odds were exactly right. I think the evidence here is that we had more large polling errors in a few elections than what is plausible (although not several in a row; 2016 had no large polling errors). I think there were three recent elections with large polling errors, so the question is, do you buy that three such low-probability events happened in that time frame.

    I don’t think 33% was reasonable. Maybe something in between like 20% would have been the most reasonable guess.

  45. Gravatar of sty.silver sty.silver
    5. November 2020 at 08:03

    Typo: 2018 had no large polling errors. 2016 and 2020 did.

  46. Gravatar of Michael Rulle Michael Rulle
    5. November 2020 at 09:23

    @mbka—we sometimes forget a one time probability is just a guess, when all is said and done. I happen to enjoy the game Nate plays—but he clearly takes it too literally and too seriously. It is a one time event. There is no ex-post evidence that after the fact results can either confirm or reject that the estimated probability was correct. Maybe if he does this 10-15 years in a row we can get a better handle on his abilities. My own opinion is he made his model much worse this year as a predictive tool. Last time he was about 30-35 Hillary. Few realized how much better this was than the “standard opinion”. In the land of one time probability events 30-35 is a “pick-em” outcome.

    He created this giant correlation block this time—-which he believes worked well—-yet it gave a 10% probability. What does that mean? That if Biden wins he was right? No, it means implicitly it should have been a landslide.

    His model did not work this time.

  47. Gravatar of Michael Rulle Michael Rulle
    5. November 2020 at 09:26

    What I should have said is his model did not work as he expected.

  48. Gravatar of miro miro
    5. November 2020 at 09:32

    Scott – Curious what your vote on prop 15 was? Prop 13 as formulated seems pretty absurd – tax less the longer you’ve lived there?

  49. Gravatar of zephito zephito
    5. November 2020 at 09:52

    Michael R: “it gave a 10% probability. What does that mean? That if Biden wins he was right? No, it means implicitly it should have been a landslide.”

    I see what you’re saying but I’m not sure that’s necessarily true. For example Biden won CO by a similar margin to Trump’s win in SC (so far). And it’s true that CO was considered pretty safe for Biden. But I don’t think it was always as safe as SC was for Trump. Things can sometimes look closer than they are. If there’s a household of 11 ironclad democrats and 9 ironclad republicans (a big house, for sure), the vote might look close but really it’s not – the democrats were always going to win that house. If there’s a house of 20 moderates, it might break 14-6 one way or the other in any given election but there’s a shakiness to that margin.

    I do feel that 90% may have been overstating it. Just that it might not be quite so far off as you’re thinking.

  50. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    5. November 2020 at 10:06

    ee, You said:

    “I’m not impressed by the prediction that the tipping point state would have a lower margin than the (expected) popular vote. That was a common prediction.”

    You misunderstood my point. Everyone knew about the EC bias, I said there’d also a a shy Trump voter bias, and the EC bias would be unusually large.

    mbka, Another example is former Red Guards in China.

    Michael, Trump will eventually lose the national vote by 4%

    sty.silver and zephito, Again, I prefer to think in terms of implied point estimates of the margin—7.8% for Silver, around 5% for the markets. Or roughly 4.5% vs. 1.5% in tipping point states, if you prefer.

    Miro, I voted against tax breaks for those over 55, if that’s your question. I don’t recall the numbers.

  51. Gravatar of JMCSF JMCSF
    5. November 2020 at 17:20

    California – liberal in the streets, libertarian in the sheets!

  52. Gravatar of Christian List Christian List
    5. November 2020 at 18:38

    Christian, I like Romney more than I used to, but his anti-Trumpism is toxic with GOP voters. He voted to convict Trump.

    Scott,

    Yeah, it is toxic. I think he lacks quite some political instincts. I also think you’re looking at this too much from an ethical point of view. Romney does not do this (just) because he’s supposedly so ethical. He did it because he thought he could capitalize on it politically. But he often misjudges situations, it kind of backfired.

    And he is a Mormon, which the Evangelicals don’t like at all, this creates a war about which made-up God is the better one, although it is the same made-up God, kind of funny, family wars are always the ugliest. So he is burnt in this area too.

    But he is welcome to compete against Trump. It is always good to have a real choice between candidates that are actually different.

    As bad as Trump is, one can learn some things from him. He cannot govern, but he is a good troll, a good campaigner. His rhetoric is so simplistic, so unique. His resistance to scandals is incredible. Most journalists will always be against the GOP. You need a candidate who can weather this storm. So either you need a saint who has no faults, but even then journalists will probably invent faults. Besides, the GOP doesn’t have saints.

    Or you need someone like Trump, who always takes it to the top, who is resistant, who gives contra all the time. When you attack this guy, he doesn’t back down, no he doubles down, he goes all in, this guy is just insane in a good way, and in bad one.

    Or you choose the German way: you put a minority or a woman at the top, preferably both. Liberal journalists seem to have some kind of bite inhibition then. Nikki Haley comes to my mind. I kind of like her.

    So much can happen until 2024. Trump had the re-election in his bag until early 2020, and then came Covid-19. And although he has completely failed at managing Covid-19, he almost got reelected against all odds. This guy is just insane.

    I don’t get the hand wringing over mail-in ballots. Lots of countries use them,

    mbka,

    Maybe I misunderstand the whole situation, but I see the US as quite unique in the Western world in this regard. Counting is not so complicated, the error is in the US system. I know of no other country where absentee ballots are still accepted days after election day. It also makes no sense, it only leads to chaos and mistrust.

    The Democrats would probably not lose votes with better rules, but there would be more transparency and the results would come in faster.

    People can’t put themselves in the other side’s shoes anymore. Just imagine the opposite situation: Biden is in front in GOP-administered states, but it’s extremely close, and more and more mail-in votes are coming in, tending strongly towards the GOP, and counting takes days and days. I think the Democrats’ trust and enthusiasm would be limited as well. Don’t you think?

    Biden would still win with better rules. The current rules are really not necessary, they only create mistrust and are an invitation for politicians like Trump.

    Such rules also make Supreme Court interference more likely, similar to what happened in 2000, so the Democrats’ actually reduce their chances of winning a bit even though they want the opposite. So why even risk it, it’s not a smart idea.

  53. Gravatar of mbka mbka
    5. November 2020 at 20:21

    Christian,

    agree on the unique US situation. Maybe I was being too oblique: What puzzles me is that this is the nation that put a man on the moon. In 1969. Why can this great nation not organize simple, fair and transparent voting systems (mail or otherwise)? Because it’s not hard to do. My guess: it’s the drawback of federalism. Every state has its own special little rules. Centralized nation states have it much better in this regard. The rule may not always be the best but at least it’s 1 rule. Not 51.

  54. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    5. November 2020 at 22:12

    Christian, The way you misjudge Romney is almost funny—like you have a grudge against him.

    You said:

    “a good campaigner.”

    Odd that a good campaigner would run one of the most inept campaigns in history.

  55. Gravatar of Christian List Christian List
    6. November 2020 at 18:04

    Scott,

    I have no grudge against Romney. I would have liked him as president for one, better two terms. Then there would have been no Trump as well. But this does not mean that I am uncritical of him and approve everything he does.

    That he is not especially ethical, I think, is pretty obvious. He wanted to become Secretary of State under Trump, did you forget about that episode? That didn’t happen, so only after that he suddenly realized where Trump stands ethically. Not very credible. I am not saying he is unethical, he is just a normal guy. I like him. He is not less ethical than others, but not more either. He simply should not play these ethical cards all the time, that’s my opinion.

    Odd that a good campaigner would run one of the most inept campaigns in history.

    I think you are alluding to the fact that he allegedly is trailing behind other party members.

    Me on the other hand, I see his strong campaigning ability based on the fact that he is pretty immune to scandals and that he was able to prevail against all other GOP candidates at the primaries. He created a cult, he is basically a cult leader.

    One must not forget that his opponents were political professionals, he is a novice, coming out of nowhere, taking over a whole party, creating a cult, with basically religious traits. The last people who succeeded in something comparably absurd were probably people like Hitler, Napoleon, Jeanne d’Arc, Jesus and Augustus.

    I attribute the fact that he currently does not have enough votes to his really bad Covid 19 management, and less to his campaigning ability. How do you sell a close to complete failure in disaster-of-the-century management? He nearly sold it.

    @mbka
    Germany also got strong federalism. I think it is the division of society, the partisanship. The grotesque rules were introduced deliberately, because in each case one (or the other) side hoped to gain advantages in elections.

  56. Gravatar of TheMoneyIllusion » Why Trump will win TheMoneyIllusion » Why Trump will win
    7. November 2023 at 22:52

    […] morning after the 2020 election—even before all the votes were counted—I had a flash of insight that the result was actually bad […]

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