Macho men and scaredy-cats
There is a certain type of person who was contemptuous of the risks associated with Covid-1:
As Brazil entered its third week of quarantine, President Jair Bolsonaro began to get impatient.
“The virus is there. We need to face it like a man, dammit. We will all die someday,” said the rightwing leader on Sunday, just days after announcing a new campaign that urged citizens to break self-isolation and return to their jobs.
And this:
“We have to stop being a country of sissies.”
Bolsonaro used the Portuguese word “maricas,” an offensive slang term for gay people.
Now the vaccine is here, but Bolsonaro does not want to “face it like a man, dammit”. Rather he wants to face the vaccine with the same courage you’d expect from a child that sees a big scary spider in his bedroom:
But Serrana was given a way out. Between February and April, all adults were offered jabs as part of a study by the Butantan Institute, which produces CoronaVac, a vaccine developed by Sinovac, a Chinese firm. More than 95% of serranenses got jabbed, despite Jair Bolsonaro, the president, claiming that it was unsafe. Preliminary results released on May 31st showed that symptomatic cases and deaths fell by 80% and 95%, respectively. Only two covid-19 patients remain hospitalised in the local clinic (both refused the vaccine).
Is Bolsonaro unusual? Not according to the comment section of my blog. Last year it was full of tough guys ridiculing fears of Covid, citing one lie after another (“it’s like the 1957 flu” or “the IFR is only 0.25%”, etc.) Now some of those same tough guys are wetting their pants over the risks posed by the (ultra-safe) Covid vaccine. Again they cite one lie after another (“9000 people have died from the vaccine”, etc.)
So what’s going on here? This is obviously not about risk tolerance. So what is it about? What is the hidden agenda?
Lockdowns can be seen as paternalistic regulations that aim to protect the public from harming themselves and their families. In America, conservatives were more likely to oppose such laws. But conservatives are more likely to support paternalistic drug laws aimed at protecting people from harming themselves and their families. Perhaps it’s all about framing. Is a “sissy” someone who is scared to try cocaine? Or is a sissy someone who uses narcotics to avoid facing up to life’s responsibilities “like a man”?
If there’s no rhyme or reason to these framings, then it opens the door to political reshuffling, which may already being occurring in the UK:
The delay of “Freedom Day”, which was supposed to see lockdown restrictions lifted almost entirely on June 21st, has probably been a boon for protesters. One says he was surprised by the number of vaccinated people joining in, either because they wanted to get back to normal or because they have become concerned about possible side-effects since being jabbed.
The protests attract both anarchist left and anti-establishment right. Piers Corbyn, the brother of Jeremy Corbyn, Labour’s former, far-left leader, has shared platforms with David Kurten, once a member of the United Kingdom Independence Party, a populist outfit that campaigned for Brexit, and now leader of the right-wing Heritage Party. Activists have united around “freedom”, discussing John Locke and Ayn Rand.
And I think we know where Foucault would be on these issues.
But no matter how many times the political deck is reshuffled, they never get around to creating a tribe that I wish to join.
Tags:
14. July 2021 at 10:58
I wouldn’t want to join any party that would have me as a member.
14. July 2021 at 11:14
Scott wrote: “…citing one lie after another (“it’s like the 1957 flu” or “the IFR is only 0.25%”, etc.) Now some of those same tough guys are wetting their pants over the risks posed by the (ultra-safe) Covid vaccine. Again they cite one lie after another (“9000 people have died from the vaccine”, etc.)”
1. It is quite similar to the 1957 pandemic if deaths are counted the same way, which the haven’t been. Also, Covid-19 deaths have been more skewed to the elderly than the 1957 influenza deaths.
2. The last I checked, the WHO stated they thought that the Covid-19 IFR is around 0.25% and John Ioannidis’ latest estimate is 0.18%. (The flu in the U.S. has been an average of 0.13% from 2010 to 2019.) They may be wrong but how a lie?
3. There have been 9,000 deaths associated with the Covid-19 vaccines. Scott says the vaccines are “ultra-safe” whereas the CDC states that the vaccines are “safe for most people.” See the difference? As of June, there were 24 deaths associated with a Covid vaccine in the 20 to 29 year age group. In contrast there has only been 1 flu shot death in that age group from 2014 to 2015.
14. July 2021 at 12:24
To suggest that the vaccines are without risk, is not consistent with what we know, nor is consistent with the WHO or CDC guidelines.
Because you are not very bright, which is why you were rarely published in 30+ years.
look up deaths in the VAERS database. There are indeed 9000. And yes, they are not all verified. But 95% of the reports in the VAERS database are submitted by medical professionals.
Furthermore, numerous scientists, with real degrees in the hard sciences (not watered down social sciences), teaching at institutions far more rigorous than the diploma mill “Bentley”, have conducted a number of studies that don’t coincide with CDC opinions. The reason the CDC doesn’t report these studies, is because they refuse to recognize studies they do not directly fund. In other words, if they don’t provide a grant: then the study is ignored.
1. UK study shows that delta variant is not worse than Alpha variant.
2. Two studies in Norway show that masks have little to no efficacy
3. Despite being fully vaccinated with the sinovac vaccine, a number of Thai nurses have become ill, some have died. This raises concerns over the efficacy of the vaccine.
4. MIT study shows six feet is not helpful, since the virus travels up to 27 feet.
5. A Chilean study shows that the PCR-Test is mostly unreliable. The proof was so convincing that a federal Chilean judge struck down the use of PCR-Testing.
6. There have been hundreds of thousands of side-effects reported, some of them serious. A 21 medical student in Michigan just died after taking the Pfizer vaccine. I’m sure her parents will be pleased to know that you think “they are safe, wonderful, and riskless”.
Yes, many of us are waiting until more data comes out; many of us are waiting for more traditional vaccines that don’t use MRNA; many of us want to take a “wait and see” approach to a vaccine that has yet to be approved by the FDA.
Just last week, the CDC updated it’s report to include “potential brain disease” as a side effect of the newly released Johnson and Johnson vaccine.
Your pseudo-macho approach that ignores data is YOUR CHOICE! Hopefully, it works out for you in the long run. Others are not so Macho, and they want to HAVE A CHOICE! They don’t want to be dictated to by bad economists masquerading as “pseudo-medical experts”.
It’s called “respecting people’s liberty”. Try it sometime!
14. July 2021 at 12:35
I’m so confused with Sumner’s logic again.
So if you are afraid of the virus, and afraid of the vaccine, that somehow makes you macho?
Isn’t is possible to be afraid of both, but prefer not to have the vaccine?
Weird!
14. July 2021 at 13:01
As someone who is not particularly afraid of covid-19; and also not vaccinated:
I just don’t like being pressured into doing things; so I won’t let myself be pressured into getting the vaccine. As I’m not particularly afraid of covid it makes sense that I wouldn’t feel the need to get vaccinated. Not being afraid of covid and not wanting the vaccine are prefectly consistent. If everyone around me had not vaccinated, I would have probably gotten the vaccine.
If I had to psychoanalyze myself and ask myself why I’m reluctant to get the vaccine despite the probability of going on being tiny – in one case, I feel like if something happens it was actively my fault, whereas in the other case if I get infected this feels more passive. But really it’s more of a “f** you all for the lockdown, you are not winning any more by pressuring me into getting the vaccine”.
14. July 2021 at 14:16
Typo. I meant to write:
“As of June, there were 24 deaths associated with a Covid vaccine in the 20 to 29 year age group. In contrast there has only been 1 flu shot death in that age group from 2014 to 2019.”
I accidently wrote 2015-2016.
14. July 2021 at 14:18
Todd, Repeating lies doesn’t make them true.
Rinat, You said:
“To suggest that the vaccines are without risk, is not consistent with what we know, nor is consistent with the WHO or CDC guidelines.
Because you are not very bright, which is why you were rarely published in 30+ years.
look up deaths in the VAERS database. There are indeed 9000.”
No one says they were without risk. I have lots of publications. No, the VAERS data base does not suggest that vaccines caused 9000 deaths.
Zero for three. I stopped reading at that point.
Matty. “I don’t like being told that smoking is a bad idea, so I’m going to smoke.” “I don’t like being told that heroin addiction is a bad idea, so I’m going to become a heroin addict.” “I don’t like being told that vaccines are really helpful, so I’m not going to get vaccinated.”
Fine, it’s a free country.
14. July 2021 at 15:00
@Matty:
At least you are up front about your sociopathic free-riding. But you’re still a sissy.
Your attitude is why the US will always be terrible at handling pandemics. People here are far too ornery and independent and mistrusting of government. Those are positive qualities in many ways but handling public health crises is not one of them.
14. July 2021 at 15:33
“Todd, Repeating lies doesn’t make them true.”
Scott, once again you don’t back your accusations with anything. How many times did you answer exam questions in college with “Because.”?
14. July 2021 at 15:52
Of course, msgkings doesn’t acknowledge that the U.S. has the highest percentage vaccinated along with Britain among large countries. Oh, and cases in Britain per day are back to where they were in mid January at 44,000 a day. That is like 220,000 cases a day in the U.S. if adjusted for population. That’s with 50% of the UK fully vaccinated.
14. July 2021 at 16:04
Scott,
To add a data point.
In Japan (a country whose people are normally quite meek about insisting on their liberties) the Prime Minister has made a formal public apology and a Cabinet Minister is likely to resign because the government was secretly pressuring banks and liquor distributors to restrict business with bars and restaurants that were not following the voluntary Covid guidelines.
It seems to me that…
1. Most governments have been incompetent and less than forthcoming in their handling of the pandemic.
2. Most people are not very tolerant of having governments dictate health care policy.
14. July 2021 at 16:09
Scott,
“Again they cite one lie after another (“9000 people have died from the vaccine”, etc.) ”
I think you are confusing a) the singular and plural pronouns b) the difference between stupidity and deliberate mendacity.
14. July 2021 at 16:18
dtoh, Scott has confused almost everything about the pandemic – even more than Tyler Cowen and that’s no small achievement.
14. July 2021 at 20:04
“What is the hidden agenda?”
Own the libs. Whatever progressives say, just say the opposite, no matter how evil or obviously stupid.
14. July 2021 at 20:12
Matty Waksen said… “I feel like if something happens it was actively my fault, whereas in the other case if I get infected this feels more passive.”
Sounds like you’re trying to minimize regret. Why not as a rule, learn from bad outcomes without succumbing to regret? Then you will not have to practice regret avoidance. Regret can become an unnecessary emotion. When regret is not a possibility you can try to maximize your expected health.
15. July 2021 at 02:48
I don’t think attitudes about Covid on the right have ever been about risk tolerance. I think they’ve been about the fact that most right-wing politicians owe their existence to small business voters. And small businesses just see the immediate drop in sales from lockdowns, which hurts. They can’t or don’t think about longer term consequences. Why would they? Most think they’re geniuses and as such aren’t that reflective.
15. July 2021 at 03:05
Keep in mind, these are the people that get their panties in a wad about someone kneeling during the national anthem, but would cheer a trump coup where he declared himself president for life. This is well beyond being scardy cats.
15. July 2021 at 04:10
Scott,
the thought has crossed my mind that Covid and the restrictions imposed by various governments, and their various failings, might lead to a return to more liberal / libertarian values world-wide. Seems like this may actually be happening.
On the other hand, there is also a reflexive opposition to whatever government may be saying or doing and in finding “just-so” reasons for that. Exhibit A, your comment section. And the congenitally permanently outraged wing of the American people specifically, from the Tea Party to the Wokes. Some people need a higher purpose to fanatically believe in, be it God or Communism (often the same person switches between both). Some people need a strong authority, be it a father or a dictator, again switching from one to the next. And some people feel the need to permanently be outraged at some authority’s perceived excesses, be it “The Medical Establishment”, “The Deep State” or “The Bilderbergs”. It’s almost comically predictable.
15. July 2021 at 04:54
To Todd K
Agree with your perspective. The counting issue is remarkable. It is not that lots of old people are not dying from Covid—-but we have never counted this way before. We began by counting the way we count the flu—however that is done—-No one knows how we count the flu aqs it is “model driven”—then changed at the last minute. We do
“Know” that no one seems to die from flu anymore. Just like we never had a push ballot election before. (Gee, how did I come up with that one?).
Oh, what about excess deaths–everyone says? Well, CDC claims that 25-33% of them have nothing to do with Covid. Thats interesting. What about Covid only deaths—CDC says that is about 6-8% of “Covid” deaths.
But Covid is a problem. Obviously. How did Covid start? Pangolian/Bat intercourse? Or a leak and lie from a lab run by the global virologist establishment. Well, we do not know do we? That’s right WE really do not know!
But Scott—-who also admits he does not know—somehow thinks it is less likely it was from the lab.
I disagree—and we have a problem that a new guy in Brazil will not solve
15. July 2021 at 11:02
Scott and Tyler have gotten some things wrong, but broadly they have been pretty good. What is awful is that there has been an organized disinformation campaign. Sad to see all of these instant experts who read a few articles that support what they want to believe then claim instant expertise.
“1. Most governments have been incompetent and less than forthcoming in their handling of the pandemic.
2. Most people are not very tolerant of having governments dictate health care policy.”
I dont know that I would say incompetent. It is a new virus after all, which is nothing like the flu. In 1957 we really didnt even have ICUs on any kind of scale. You just died. Covid is clearly a much worse illness. Clinical picture is much different than treating flu. I would say that virtually all governments were not prepared. No government wanted to spend the money for something that was definitely going to happen but probably not while they were in power. I would also say that governments in countries that had the means and resources to respond largely underspent.
2) When it comes to public health it seems like the huge majority of people understand the overwhelmingly positive achievements and go along with them. Due to vaccination programs childhood killers are close to eliminated. Clean water and good sewers have been great, except that fluoride turns you into a commie of course. I never see public protests when the public health people track down what caused food poisoning deaths and illnesses. Most people seem happy about it. So, on matters of public health ti seems to me this is almost unique in the split of opinion about the response, noting that at least 50% of people have largely been OK with it while thinking it could have been better.
On general health policy issues like single payer, not paying for poor people to have medical care, etc, I agree there is disagreement.
Steve
15. July 2021 at 11:40
Never Reason Backward From a Trump (or Bolsinaro) Statement.
(Meaning: you might imagine that you can play a game like “what beliefs would lead me to make a statement like that one?” but it will get you nowhere closer to understanding what is going on.)
15. July 2021 at 14:25
@Steve,
Since you quoted me, I assume your comments may refer to me. So for the record. I have read more than a few articles, and generally I do so with a view to finding data that contradict my beliefs. Also, I can’t speak for others, but I have not been part of an organized disinformation campaign.
One more point. I referred very deliberately to “health care” … not to “public health.” Personally I think there’s a clear need for effective public health policy, but I would note that most of the achievements you cite happened more than half a century ago, and the performance of public health institutions during the pandemic has (albeit partly judged in the light of hindsight) been pretty abysmal.
15. July 2021 at 15:45
“ If there’s no rhyme or reason to these framings.”
I think the underlying rhyme & reason is that much of the political right considers most institutions to be hostile to them and therefore doesn’t trust them. Those institutions have in my view earned that lack of trust. Whatever they advocate, the right assumes there must be some ulterior & nefarious motive. The error of the right is that just because the institutions are biased against them, it doesn’t mean everything that the establishment recommends is a bad idea.
Probably also a belief that they’ll very likely survive a COVID infection (true!) but the mRNA vaccine is something they don’t understand and so it’s inherently more risky in terms of perception (sorta like how people are afraid to fly although it’s much safer than driving).
15. July 2021 at 16:15
@dtoh- Then you would have a good frame of reference to compare this pandemic with others? With various flus we have health with? With infectious diseases from food poisonings to Ebola to H1N1? If you compare the current to past efforts and to efforts in other countries I think that the first 2-3 months of our efforts were pretty bad. Messaging was awful and leadership sucked. BUT, after that we were pretty good. We quickly managed to cut the mortality rate fo hospitalized pts by about half. We acted pretty quickly on vaccines. The initial roll out on the vaccines was slow and disorganized but quickly got better.
Again, you have totally missed the ongoing public health efforts of the last 50 years. AIDS is now mostly just another chronic disease. Canine rabies is largely gone. TB cases decreased, central line infections way down, neural tube defects down and the pneumococcal and rotavirus vaccines have been pretty successful. Cars are also a lot safer, though you can argue about that being public health.
Steve
15. July 2021 at 16:56
dtoh, No, it’s not just Todd.
Not sure what your Japanese remark has to do with this post, which discusses cowardice.
Rajat, You said:
“And small businesses just see the immediate drop in sales from lockdowns:”
Is that true? Why was Sweden’s economy hit just as hard as its Nordic neighbors? I’m not saying lockdowns had no effect on business, but certainly they weren’t the main problem.
Justin, You said:
“I think the underlying rhyme & reason is that much of the political right considers most institutions to be hostile to them and therefore doesn’t trust them.”
You mean like President Trump, who funded vaccine research then touted the results? Then who do they trust?
“sorta like how people are afraid to fly although it’s much safer than driving”
That’s plausible.
15. July 2021 at 17:08
Scott,
What did Todd say?
15. July 2021 at 17:16
Scott,
“Not sure what your Japanese remark has to do with this post, which discusses cowardice.”
I was referring to fact that you cite several countries as examples, and your comments that
“Lockdowns can be seen as paternalistic regulations that aim to protect the public from harming themselves and their families. In America, conservatives were more likely to oppose such laws.”
15. July 2021 at 18:45
Steve,
I was commenting about governments in general rather than the U.S. specifically, but I gather your comments are about the U.S. government response.
I think with respect to the pandemic, the things I would fault with the US public health bureaucracy response (to name a few) were.
Funding (and not carefully overseeing) the research that probably created and resulted in the release of the virus.
Insufficient research to understand viral/disease transmission.
No effective plan for quickly mobilizing a response
Failed to understand the importance or prep for the need to achieve political consensus.
Insufficient stockpiling of needed medical supplies.
Totally messed up testing.
Wasn’t honest with the public.
Over reliance on vaccines and an unwillingness to aggressively trial alternative treatments.
Unrealistic risk/reward analyses.
Failure to initially lockdown overseas travel.
Inability to evaluate and quickly fund relevant studies.
Poor contact tracing initially.
Failure to use genomic sequencing to identify transmission routes
Failure to follow their own public health policies resulting in a loss of public trust.
(BTW – I Don’t disagree in general about public health improvements or the need for government involvement in public health.)
15. July 2021 at 20:38
dtoh wrote: “Scott, What did Todd say?”
dtoh, do you really think Scott at 65 with no science background and is petrified about Covid-19 will suddenly become coherent about this in mid-July?
15. July 2021 at 20:43
Steve wrote:
“AIDS is now mostly just another chronic disease.”
Well that’s total bullshit. Why does Steve think that? Because the NY Times and CNN have stopped discussing AIDS, so he has no clue as those are his main sources of news.
16. July 2021 at 00:55
@Scott:
>Matty. “I don’t like being told that smoking is a bad idea, so I’m going to smoke
I believe marijuana use is often higher in places where it’s banned; what’s up with that?
@msgkings
>Your attitude is why the US will always be terrible at handling pandemics.
Funny how I’m not in the US. Also, stop being a bully, people like you make me want to get the vaccine *less*. You’re also not very coherent, shouldn’t you be happy I’m not taking the vaccine away from someone more deserving?
@Brian
>Sounds like you’re trying to minimize regret.
That’s part of it, but a big part is also that I feel like getting the vaccine feels like legitimizing the insanity that has been going on with lockdowns, the “you can only have your freedom if you’re vaccinated”.
>When regret is not a possibility you can try to maximize your expected health.
I’m young enough (and there is almost no covid here) that “doing more sports” is going to do far more to maximize my expected health than a vaccine.
16. July 2021 at 08:02
dtoh, Todd is a professional troll, who specializes in false and misleading data points. There are literally hundreds of examples scattered throughout my comment sections. Just yesterday he tried to argue that there’s just as much vaccine resistance in other developed countries as in the US, which is absurd. And he KNEW the data he cited was misleading.
He keeps repeating the 0.25% IFR nonsense (false), the 1957 flu nonsense (false), and the 9000 deaths nonsense (totally misleading). There’s a hundred more examples if you go back through the comment section. Look at his posts on Sweden, etc.
He keeps citing a Danish study showing that “masks don’t work” even after being repeatedly being told that the study shows no such thing. I could go on an on. He’s a lying troll.
By Todd’s logic Ebola is less dangerous than the flu, as more Americans died of the flu. LOL.
Still don’t see your point about Japan, but whatever.
16. July 2021 at 11:09
Yeah, yeah.
Scott doesn’t have a scientific mind but others might read comments. Scott doesn’t understand that the Danish study doesn’t give support to mask use nor does the May 2020 meta analyis put out by the CDC that concluded ten randomly controlled trials of masks studies showed no significant slowing of influenza transmission – which is similar to how coronavirus spreads.
Scott always says things like “nonsense” but hasn’t figured out our super advanced internet to prove those things called “links.” 9,000 deaths associated with Covid shots is not misleading nor is using IFR that the WHO uses. Notice Scott won’t link to his IFR estimate. With him, his answer is just “Because.”
Prof. Sumner, why should the Fed use NGDP instead of RGDP?
Sumner: “Like, just because, dude.”
heh.
16. July 2021 at 11:29
Scott,
Let’s ask Todd.
Todd, when you said there were 9000 deaths “associated” with the vaccine, what did you mean?
Did you mean there was a correlation between the two? Or, did you mean that there was a causal relation between the two?
16. July 2021 at 17:00
It is completely obvious that some are just correlated but some are causal. I also pointed out the 24 vaccine deaths as of June for 20 to 29 year olds whereas there was 1 flu vaccination death in that age group for 2015 to 2019. There as well. I’m not sure how many in their 20s were killed by the vaccine but some sure have been. The side effects like extreme headaches, etc. are usually listed.
17. July 2021 at 20:25
Todd,
On what basis do you believe that some of the deaths are causal. Roughly speaking, what percent of the 9000 deaths reported in VAERS, do you believe to have been caused by the vaccine.
18. July 2021 at 04:47
Scott,
Oh one more thing. Regarding Ebola and flu, who does not judge danger through the dual lenses of severity and probability?
18. July 2021 at 10:47
Todd, As you well know, commenters here are insisting that the vaccine caused 9000 deaths. I simply disagreed with that claim and you disagreed with me.
Millions of Americans die every single year—9000 is basically background noise. Could be anything.
And the 1957 flu death total is meaningless because there was almost no social distancing back then. Try to imagine the Covid death toll if there’d been no social distancing in the US! My 95 year old mom is in an Arizona apartment complex full of hundreds of 80 and 90 year olds, only one ended up getting Covid. Many of them would have died without precautions.
It’s not “just the flu”.
Not that you care, but the IFR is at least 0.6% in the US, probably more.
dtoh, You asked:
“Regarding Ebola and flu, who does not judge danger through the dual lenses of severity and probability?”
Todd! That’s my point. Read my reply to him on the 1957 flu.
18. July 2021 at 15:38
Scott,
Regarding IFR, I have a couple of questions.
Where does the 0.6% number come from. A lot of the numbers I have seen were lower.
Also, do you know if Todd was referring to global IFR or US IFR when he said the rate was 0.25%
For the US mortality number (IFR numerator), do you know how this was calculated. Most states were treating any death as a Covid death if the person who died had Covid (this is the logical equivalent of treating the 9000 VAERS deaths as “vaccination deaths.”)
18. July 2021 at 16:07
Scott,
Not to be pedantic, but even if the U.S. IFR “was” 0.6%, it certainly “is” not now anywhere near that given the drop in the age distribution of infections.
18. July 2021 at 20:51
“Most states were treating any death as a Covid death if the person who died had Covid”
I do not believe this is true. Have any evidence?
I can’t take Todd K seriously anymore since he said that South Africa beat the virus without any vaccines (prior to their current wave) and were doing just as well as Israel. A statement like that is clearly the mark of a deranged mind.
20. July 2021 at 08:48
dtoh, It was probably higher than 0.6% in the first wave. The numbers tend to come from a combination of Covid death totals and infection rates in various populations. In New Jersey, 0.3% of the population has already died of Covid, even more if you add in unreported cases. Unless NJ has a 125% infection rate, their IFR is above 0.25%.
These are US figures—higher in Europe and lower in younger regions.
Yes, of course with vaccination the IFR has been falling fast, but that has no bearing on my criticism of Todd.
Over at Econlog I argued that almost everyone in America who wants a vaccine has gotten one, and hence we should just let it rip to get it over as quickly as possible. Rip off the bandaid. I see no argument for continued social distancing, unless they plan to keep doing it forever. What’s the point? I went back to normal in February.
anon, Yes, the excess death data pretty clearly shows the actual Covid death toll is higher than the reported figures. Todd is always in denial.
20. July 2021 at 13:55
Scott,
I don’t think Todd was talking about IFR’s in individual States. It’s not even clear to me whether he was claiming 0.25% was the rate for the U.S. On a global basis, 0.25% is probably pretty close.
The CDC’s best guess estimate for the overall IFR in the U.S. was 0.65%. That was in July 2020. For some reason they have not updated the number since then, but if you’re right that the rate was higher initially, then the actual rate will have been lower than the CDC’s 0.65% number. (Again, I’m curious where you are getting your numbers.)
Claiming the actual Covid death toll is higher than reported based on excess death data is the exact same argument as claiming that the 9000 VAERS reported deaths were caused by the vaccinations.