It’s 4am. Do you know who your PM is?

Alternative post titles:

Anarchy in the UK

The Flight 93 election

It’s 11 pm Eastern time, and the outcome is still in doubt.  However we already know that Corbyn is a huge winner and May is the loser.  If Thatcher anticipated Reagan and Brexit led to Trump, does Corbyn’s strong showing suggest Bernie Sanders could win in 2020?  (Sanders is far to the right of Corbyn, who is basically a Marxist).

It’s becoming clear that the polls showing a big overlap between Trump voters and Sanders voters was no fluke.  I now suspect that Sanders might have won in 2016—an idea I ridiculed at the time.

For the first time in 150 years there will be no Irish nationalists in Parliament.

The Conservatives lost Canterbury for the first time since 1918.  Labour is shifting from a party of labor to a party of students.

I’m already seeing stories that “uncertainty will weigh on the economy”.  Sorry, I’m not going to be suckered by that prediction twice in a row.

Negotiations with the EU?  They must all be laughing in Brussels.

About the post title.  Given my strong dislike of May, I’m rooting for a Conservative win so narrow that they replace May with Johnson.

Update:  This is the most informative graph I’ve seen on the election:

So as Labour becomes a party of students, the cultural conservative blue color workers who don’t like the EU are swinging towards the Conservatives.

(I hope my British readers will tell me if I’ve got that right.)

 


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37 Responses to “It’s 4am. Do you know who your PM is?”

  1. Gravatar of Benjamin Cole Benjamin Cole
    8. June 2017 at 20:18

    Sanders, Trump, Corbyn…and we could be in the first inning.

    Globalized wages and exploding housing costs in Western developed nations.

    Oh gee, there is a surprise here?

    I will say it again: Macroeconomic authorities in Western developed nations would do well to target “tight” labor markets and loose housing markets.

    If we want voters to embrace free markets and free enterprise, I would suggest we make free markets work for them.

  2. Gravatar of Benjamin Cole Benjamin Cole
    8. June 2017 at 20:49

    OT:

    http://www.afr.com/opinion/columnists/chinas-influence-in-australia-is-not-ordinary-soft-power-20170606-gwli1m?utm_source=The+Sinocism+China+Newsletter&utm_campaign=18b35210e7-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_06_08&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_171f237867-18b35210e7-29605809&mc_cid=18b35210e7&mc_eid=92a7faac5a

    Egads, CCP influence in Australian elections makes the Kremlin-Trump doings look like tiddlywinks.

    Maybe soon we will all report to Beijing and Moscow.

  3. Gravatar of Nick Nick
    8. June 2017 at 22:11

    >For the first time in 150 years there will be no Irish nationalists in Parliament
    Do you mean the SDLP? Sinn Fein won 7 seats (up 3) but have never taken their seats when elected.

  4. Gravatar of Scott Freelander Scott Freelander
    8. June 2017 at 22:12

    Here’s the left-wing wave some of us were warning about. The mood seems to generally be anti-establishment, but the far left can take advantage of it.

    Now is a good time to promote ideas like wage subsidies. Better to push smart redistributionist policies than to have policies like those favored by Corbyn or even Sanders adopted. Corbyn wants to take the UK back to the dreary 70s.

    It’ll be interesting to see if and how much this emboldens the left-wing of the Democratic Party.

  5. Gravatar of Nick Cowen Nick Cowen
    8. June 2017 at 23:04

    ‘For the first time in 150 years there will be no Irish nationalists in Parliament.’

    What do you mean, Scott?

    Sin Fein still have seats but as always they refuse to sit in Parliament.

  6. Gravatar of ChrisA ChrisA
    8. June 2017 at 23:42

    This is the most promising result for the limited Government crowd, both May and Corbyn are authoritarian (to be sure in different ways).

    Most likely scenario I can see is that May forms a Government with the support of the Ulster Unionists, promising to resign and hold a party election in 2 years, to elect new leader going to into the next election. Second most likely scenario is that she resigns immediately and Johnson takes over and forms government again with DUP. Either way there will be much sound and fury but little active governing going on. Brexit negotiations will default to a hard Brexit, since the clock is ticking and there is no way either side now can craft a deliverable deal.

    I don’t think this is really a left wing election, I think more of a Brexit election. The younger voters in the UK are very pro-remain, and I think the Metropolitan and Younger voters were thinking that supporting Labour would slow the process of Brexit, or at least soften it. But ironically I think they have increased very significantly the change of hard brexit, especially if Johnson gets in.

  7. Gravatar of BC BC
    9. June 2017 at 00:43

    “Labour is shifting from a party of labor to a party of students.”

    What happens when those students become 30-something college educated professionals starting young families? Will they still be enamored with Corbyn and Sanders? The Boomer hippies of the 70s became the Boomer yuppies of the 80s. It will be interesting to see what kind of politics will appeal to Millennials when they start young families in the next few years. Continued support for globalism I can see. Anti-corporate socialism? Not so much. After all, these Millennials are much more likely to grow into mid-level white collar jobs than factory jobs.

  8. Gravatar of Christian List Christian List
    9. June 2017 at 02:16

    The logical result when you have to candidates, one worse than the other.

    I still don’t get what May was thinking. I assume she thought: “50% Brexit votes last year, minus all the people shocked by Trump, minus all the people repelled by my hard Brexit approach, minus all the people repelled by my bad communication and negotiation skills = way more than 50% of the votes now!”

    Labour is stupid as well, with a likable, moderate, competent candidate they would have won easily.

  9. Gravatar of Matthew Moore Matthew Moore
    9. June 2017 at 02:59

    I would be interested to see if that Brexit correlation holds up controlling for age. Labour has become the party of the young and stupid. the Conservatives have become the party of the old and stupid.

  10. Gravatar of John Hall John Hall
    9. June 2017 at 03:48

    Benjamin Cole makes a great point. Republicans are too busy fighting the problems from 30 years ago. Marginal tax rates were a significant negative back then. They would do well to focus on supply side problems that are a significant negative now, such as expensive housing.

  11. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    9. June 2017 at 05:27

    Nick, Yes, I meant actually sitting in Parliament, able to speak out for Irish nationalism.

  12. Gravatar of Bob D Bob D
    9. June 2017 at 07:00

    “Labour is shifting from a party of labor to a party of students.”

    No. Or at least, not quite.

    Corbyn only exists and survives because of the rock-solid support that he got from the Labour Unions. In a very real sense Corbyn’s politics represents more a return to the 50s/60s Labour ideal than anything else.

    The reason for the shift in student and youth support from apathy to Labor is because of the collapse of Free Market (and Capitalism more broadly) Capitalism’s ability to project a coherent message justifying its existence. Since the early 90s the justification by Free Trade ideologues for its existence has been that Free Trade is the best way to guarantee individual rights and makes societies more peaceful, less corrupt, more equal, and more democratic coupled with the Fukuyaman message of there being nothing else. Yet, in real terms over the past two decades the world has gotten more violent, less free, more uneual, and more violent. The two things that seem to have hammered this home on a ideological level are the disastrous invasion of Iraq which seems like an increasingly senseless act of violence disruptive violence and the inability of capitalist ideologues to come up with an effective answer to Climate Change beyond trying to deny its existence or magnitude.

    And while the hard core ideologues of capital will routinely say “No, no, if trade were freer the world would be better” this has the same persuasive capability for people skeptical of capitalism’s message as the people who claim that the Soviet Union would have been less oppressive if it were more Communist.

    This distrust of the ideology behind capital can be seen in the fundamental contradiction that hangs over Tory politics. The same party that fought for freer trade and markets with a leadership (including Theresa May) who staked their credibility on the campaign to stay in the EU now fights to leave with a disastrous “Hard Brexit” while still claiming to be in favour of deregulation and free trade. (The opportunity cost calculus is clear here. The amount of regulations imposed on Britain by the EU, onerous though they may be, pales in comparison with the amount of regulations imposed on post-brexit trade trying to get into the EU.)

    The only thing that the Corbyn/Sanders movement has done is sell a very simple idea: “There is another way.” For both of them it’s a reheated idea from the past, but I think that’s the point. Their success doesn’t lie as much in their message but in the weakness of the opposition, and frankly it doesn’t look like anyone is going to take the time to correct those weaknesses.

  13. Gravatar of Christian List Christian List
    9. June 2017 at 07:30


    Labour is shifting from a party of labor to a party of students.

    I assume this shift was beginning in the late 60s and nearly finished in the late 2000s. More and more workers stopped electing left parties. This is true for Europe as a whole and I guess in the US you can observe similar trends.

  14. Gravatar of mpowell mpowell
    9. June 2017 at 08:14

    Obviously monetary authorities cannot target housing prices in a beneficial way. What is needed at the local level is far fewer restrictions on development everywhere and smarter infrastructure planning to improve commutes from less expensive areas.

  15. Gravatar of Bob Bob
    9. June 2017 at 08:53

    I read this election as ‘we dislike the Trump/May view of the world so much we are all willing to vote for a marxist’, and given that Corbyn only came in second, I think it’s pretty good for the world. Look at how well Spain is working with a hung government: The government is conservative, but needing a second party to go with them means that they cannot stop corruption probes, or enact legislation that involves traditional catholic values. Podemos is not really any better than Corwin, but the crazy side of their policies doesn’t have a chance in hell of becoming law.

    It all makes me thing of the US back when different wings of each party mattered, and compromise happened.

  16. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    9. June 2017 at 08:59

    Bob D, There are so many problems with your comment that I hardly know where to begin. Let’s start with your claim that the world is becoming more unequal and more violent. Just the opposite is true. Neoliberalism has greatly reduced global inequality and global violence.

    The places that are still violent (especially the Middle East) of course have nothing to do with neoliberalism.

    The global income distribution is getting more equal.

    Greece is the least neoliberal European country, Switzerland the most. Which place is doing better?

    Christian, No, the huge swing of the young toward Labour occurred only in the past few years. Conservatives should be worried.

    Bob, Good points.

  17. Gravatar of Alec Fahrin Alec Fahrin
    9. June 2017 at 09:06

    319-261.

    She lost her majority and will now have to rely on supply-and-confidence from the DUP, which essentially means more hand-outs to the North Irish. The pound is taking this to mean that Brexit is continuing (down 1.6%), but that the chances of no deal have increased alongside those of soft Brexit. As far as I can tell, this was not a “good” result for Britain in the coming negotiations. Corbyn is guaranteed to be Labour’s leader into the 2020’s now, and that means that if the Brexit deal is bad and the economy stumbles… He’ll be prime minister.

    The world appears to be less and less predictable by the day. Was it ever predictable in the first place, or was that just a coincidence?

  18. Gravatar of Postkey Postkey
    9. June 2017 at 11:35

    ‘ It’s true that the number of people living in ‘extreme poverty’, as defined, has sharply declined over the past three decades,  There are 721 million fewer people living in extreme poverty in 2010 compared to 1981 (assuming what $1.25 a day could buy in 1981 is the same as what it can buy now).  That sounds better, but this reduction is almost solely due a rise in living standards in the billion-plus populations of India and particularly China in the last 30 years.  There has been very little reduction in extreme poverty levels (as defined) in other very poor emerging economies.  While extreme poverty rates have declined in all regions, the world’s 35 low-income countries (LICs) – 26 of which are in Africa — registered 103 million more extremely poor people today than three decades ago.
     Aside from China and India,“individuals living in extreme poverty [in the developing world] today appear to be as poor as those living in extreme poverty 30 years ago,” the World Bank said. ‘
    https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2015/10/13/weve-never-had-it-so-good/

  19. Gravatar of Postkey Postkey
    9. June 2017 at 11:37

    ‘While the numbers of people living in extreme poverty has indeed halved, many of those people are still poor, deprived of their basic needs. A more accurate measure of poverty shows that the number of poor worldwide has overall increased.
    As the London-based development charity ActionAid showed in a 2013 report, a more realistic poverty measure lies between $5 and $10 a day. World Bank data shows that since 1990, the number of people living under $10 a day has increased by 25 percent, and the number of people living under $5 a day has increased by 10 percent. Today, 4.3 billion people — nearly two-thirds of the global population — live on less than $5 a day.
    So really, poverty has worsened in the Age of Progress. And now the un-sustainability of this equation is coming home to roost even in the centres of global growth, where wealth is most concentrated.” ‘
    https://www.actionaid.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/unga_post_2015_briefing_final.pdf

  20. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    9. June 2017 at 12:27

    “It’s becoming clear that the polls showing a big overlap between Trump voters and Sanders voters was no fluke. I now suspect that Sanders might have won in 2016—an idea I ridiculed at the time.”

    -Clearly you are, firstly, old, secondly, live in a rich place that swung strongly against Trump and that voted for HRC over Bernie by over 25 points in the primary. You know nothing about the American electorate. Of course there was a big overlap between Trump and Sanders voters; just go some miles West to western Worcester county. Why wouldn’t Bernie have won? He’s too likeable for Kasichbros and Hillary men to vote for him, so they’d switch to Trump? Makes no sense.

    “Sanders is far to the right of Corbyn, who is basically a Marxist”
    -One of the reasons I preferred Corbyn to May as PM. He’s authentic, unlike Obama.

    “Given my strong dislike of May, I’m rooting for a Conservative win so narrow that they replace May with Johnson.”
    -Same. We need some competent leadership in London, and May ain’t it. But Corbyn as PM would be even better.

  21. Gravatar of Lawrence D’Anna Lawrence D'Anna
    9. June 2017 at 13:02

    Bernie could have won in 2016, but he isn’t going to win in 2020. It’s going to be Kanye West or Oprah or Jon Stewart. Maybe Al Franken if we’re lucky. Reality TV and comedy specials are where we find our presidents now.

  22. Gravatar of W. Peden W. Peden
    9. June 2017 at 16:22

    There were no Irish nationalists in the House of Commons from 1955 to 1966.

    The Conservatives fought with a bad ideology (“the good that government can do”) embodied in a bad manifesto and with a bad campaign.

    Corbyn has shifted the Overton Window tremendously in the UK and I fear that our political dynamic could be social conservativism vs. socialism for a long time to come.

  23. Gravatar of Major.Freedom Major.Freedom
    9. June 2017 at 19:29

    Absolute must read:

    https://i.redd.it/e1f52vjyhl2z.png

    Hits all the known, proven facts circulating in the underground web. This is real news folks.

  24. Gravatar of Major.Freedom Major.Freedom
    9. June 2017 at 20:06

    Comey’s testimony was a virtual final nail in the coffin on the “Russia collusion” narrative, which I have been saying for MONTHS was fake news cooked up by the democrat-deep state-MSM complex. Comey admitted the story was false. He also admitted that not only did Trump not obstruct, and was not under investigation, but that Loretta Lynch DID obstruct an actual investigation into Hillary’s crimes (which Comey was covering for, read the link in my previous post).

    Sumner on the other hand believed the lies. Contrary to my approach, which was evidence based, Sumner went by his “nose”, as if an evidence-less approach is the way knowledge of empirical facts become known.

    Principles conquers opportunism.

    Now all those past posts of Sumner repeating the fake news, are what he has to live with for the rest of his life.

    I will sleep soundly tonight.

  25. Gravatar of Benjamin Cole Benjamin Cole
    9. June 2017 at 21:40

    Way OT, but if we believe in markets…

    The Korean stock market is up 17.53% this year.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/KOSPI:IND

    The S. Koreans just decided to table the THAAD missile defense system.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/07/south-korea-suspends-thaad-missile-system/

    Evidently, the S. Koreans are rather nonchalant about the N. Koreans.

    Why all the drama in the US global security crowd?

    And egads, this sentence from the Telegraph:

    “However, Moon (Jae in), who was elected on a platform of deeper engagement with Kim Jong-un’s rogue regime in Pyongyang, has previously voiced his reservations about THAAD, urging Washington to respect the will of the South Korean people.”

    Is the US foreign policy “to make as many international problems as possible. We need bigger federal budgets.”

  26. Gravatar of Postkey Postkey
    10. June 2017 at 10:11

    This was one ‘aspect’ of US ‘foreign policy’?

    ‘The “regime-change hawks” in Washington were arguing that a coalition put together for one purpose [against international terrorism] could be used to clear up other problems in the region.’ P324.

    http://www.iraqinquiry.org.uk/media/247919/the-report-of-the-iraq-inquiry_section-31.pdf

  27. Gravatar of Mike D Mike D
    10. June 2017 at 18:24

    I love this idea pushed by MF and other Trumpanzees that we cannot trust any of our many established media organizations to provide us with reliable information, but anonymous 4chan manifestos undoubtedly written by some loser in his mom’s basement are unquestionably trustworthy.

  28. Gravatar of Benjamin Cole Benjamin Cole
    11. June 2017 at 00:32

    John Hall–

    Exactly–cheaper housing, and not through subsidies or public programs, but through de-zoning. The free market will take care of the rest.

    Higher wages—obtained by chronically “tight” labor markets. We presently have about 1.2 people looking for work for every job opening, while people continue to come off the sidelines due to better job markets.

    In Japan labor participation rates are rising—very instructive. They are drawing people into the job market, just by having more job openings. Wages are flat. I suspect more job opening allows a better fit between sideliners and jobs, so you get more labor participation

    The econo-sadists at the Fed with their sanctimonious sermonettes about inflation are a menace to prosperity, and as as much as anybody brought to us Trump.

    Fine, cut corporate taxes.

    But to the tens of millions of employees, which rings more true:

    “Tight job markets and cheap housing,”

    or

    “Let’s cut tax rates for multi-national corporations. Carrier is offshoring jobs to Mexico, btw, and that is actually good for you.”

    Bernie Sanders had the charisma of day-old beer.

    What happens if someone charismatic fills his shoes?

  29. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    11. June 2017 at 05:24

    Postkey, If you care about people, and not lines on the map, then why would it matter where the decline in poverty occurred? Most people live in Asia, especially India and China, so I’m not surprised that this is where most of the decline occurred.

    And your data on less than $5 a day don’t support your claim, as the world’s population has grown by far more than 10% since 1990.

    Harding, The idea that the place I live influences my views is one of the dumbest things you’ve ever said—and that’s really saying something. I have basically no contact with my neighbors on the question of politics. I don’t read the local papers, or watch the local news. For all intents and purposes I might just as well be living in West Virginia. Soon I’ll move to a town that voted for Trump–do you think that will change my worldview, given that I spend all my time in front of the computer?

    W. Peden, Thanks, I had read that info in the FT.

  30. Gravatar of Postkey Postkey
    11. June 2017 at 09:26

    “Postkey, If you care about people, and not lines on the map, then why would it matter where the decline in poverty occurred? Most people live in Asia, especially India and China, so I’m not surprised that this is where most of the decline occurred.”

    It only matters when you are trying to suggest that it is neoliberal economics that is the ’cause’ of the reduction.

    “And your data on less than $5 a day don’t support your claim, as the world’s population has grown by far more than 10% since 1990.”

    Good point.

  31. Gravatar of Major.Freedom Major.Freedom
    11. June 2017 at 10:05

    Mike D:

    “…we cannot trust any of our many established media organizations to provide us with reliable information, but anonymous 4chan manifestos undoubtedly written by some loser in his mom’s basement are unquestionably trustworthy.”

    You’re only half right. Yes we cannot trust the “establishment” media. Those of us who have taken the time to research this in depth, and do not have missing requisite brain cells and are not being paid to purposefully spread disinfo, come to that same conclusion.

    The infographic I posted touches on many PROVEN facts, published on the 100% accurate Wikileaks website. It is not some unfounded rant from people living in their parent’s basement. FBI informants regularly post information on the underground sites, so that the uncomfortable truths can get out without retribution (like murdering Seth Rich). The talents the researchers have on 4chan are in many ways superior to the “establishment” intelligence agencies.

    Did you know that Hayek’s theory of “disbursed information” theory that served as a critique of centralization (socialism), applies with full force to what your mind would consider to be privileged “intelligence” that “the state should handle? That decentralized checks and balances, totally unplanned, is actually more effective and less prone to corruption and exploitation?

    The number of times at which posters to underground media are identified as “Larpers” as opposed to legit, is actually a site to behold, and in every case, you will see the reasons why. Every fact is checked by thousands of people who if you were a bully would think “have nothing else better to do”, or “in their parent’s basement”.

    You’re just a bigot who has no clue what is actually going on in the world.

    You don’t seem to want to accept the fact that many of the “established media” organizations you have come to trust, are purposefully spreading disinfo. Obama (re-)legalized in 2013 government propaganda and lies submitted to the media.

    And I will point out that in no case did you even attempt to show how the “facts” published by the MSM are proved and supported by reality, whereas the underground media is not.

    You are just a good little sheep.

  32. Gravatar of Major.Freedom Major.Freedom
    11. June 2017 at 10:14

    Chuck Schumer had drinks yesterday with George Soros’s son Alex.

    Never forget who is in charge of Schumer (and many other communist-globalists).

    Soros believes that destroying nation states will eliminate world wars. But that theory presupposes that there is no such thing as a world-wide civil war from a world imposed state (which is what Sumner wants by the way) against those not in the state.

    In actuality, yes, world wars are the results of nation states, but the solution is to have no states at all, and to decentralize protection and security, which will maximize checks and balances on corruption and exploitation. Imposing gigantic unelected states on entire continents, and then the world, will eliminate the checks and balances brought about by decentralize power centers.

    Soros is oblivious to how to actually stop large scale conflicts. He is increasing conflict all over the world.

  33. Gravatar of Christian List Christian List
    11. June 2017 at 12:16

    I’m a bit surprised by this NYT list. Okay, it might take guts to put “mainstream” movies like Hurt Locker and Inside Out on such a list. But then they overdo it with movies like Million Dollar Baby, Moonlight, and The 40-Year-Old Virgin for example. Your list does make much more sense.

  34. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    11. June 2017 at 14:32

    “The idea that the place I live influences my views is one of the dumbest things you’ve ever said—and that’s really saying something. I have basically no contact with my neighbors on the question of politics. I don’t read the local papers, or watch the local news. For all intents and purposes I might just as well be living in West Virginia. Soon I’ll move to a town that voted for Trump–do you think that will change my worldview, given that I spend all my time in front of the computer?”

    -I freely accept you don’t interact with your neighbors on political matters. So how would you explain your errors in evaluating the American electorate being in the direction one might readily expect from a typical person living where you live?

  35. Gravatar of Major.Freedom Major.Freedom
    11. June 2017 at 14:40

    Comey Is Refusing To Turn Over Memo, Says He Deleted It

    http://www.youngcons.com/comey-is-refusing-to-turn-over-memo-says-he-deleted-it/

    In other words, there is no evidence it ever existed.

  36. Gravatar of Alexander Hamilton Alexander Hamilton
    12. June 2017 at 05:41

    Is MF ok? I stopped reading his posts six years ago like everyone else. I read a few for the first time today. When did he go full Trumptard/Wikileaks? He’s always been nutty but he used to stick to writing essays about Austrian economics. This is a worrying change.

  37. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    13. June 2017 at 05:25

    Postkey, Haven’t the biggest reductions in poverty occurred in the countries with the greatest neoliberal reforms, such as China and India?

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