How would you feel about a President Bernie Trump?

On Monday, I watched a bit of cable news at the airport.  The former CIA chief called Trump’s speech at the CIA “despicable” (and of course it was.)  One of Trump’s aides finally admitted that his promise to release the tax forms after the audit was a lie (he’ll never release them), just as the earlier claim that returns could not be released due to the audit was a lie, just as the even earlier promise to release the returns before the election was a lie.  With Trump, it’s lies all the way down.  Then I heard he’s torpedoing the TPP, which is no surprise, but still disappointing (unless you are Bernie Sanders.)  All in one news show.  (If only his TPP campaign promises had been lies!)  And the next day Trump made up a silly story about 3 million cases of voter fraud.

These are different kinds of despicable actions.  One is a lack of basic human decency, another is dishonesty and contempt for the voters, and the third is simply bad policy.  But I think they all matter, because character matters. (I actually don’t think that politicians should be required to release tax returns—the mistake here was making an explicit promise to voters, and then contemptuously saying the promise would not be honored.)

If you are one of those Trump supporters who think process doesn’t matter, and all that matters is whether Trump signs GOP bills, then I’d like you to consider what happens if this stuff becomes the new normal in American politics.

I recall when there was a lot of friction between Jimmy Carter and the oil companies.  But at no time were the oil companies afraid to speak out against Carter’s policies, and they did so—vociferously.

If the business press is to be believed, every single major corporation in America is now terrified of Trump’s vindictiveness, and they are effectively silenced. Or they put out PR statements kowtowing to Trump’s agenda. Now contemplate a left-wing version of the Donald, let’s call him Bernie Trump.  Suppose he abused presidential power and ordered companies around in the same way that Trump does–but in order to achieve a socialist agenda.  Would you still say “process issues” don’t matter, or would you be whining that Bernie Trump is turning America into a Venezuela-style quasi-dictatorship?  I think we all know the answer.

And yet I predict this post will have no impact.  Trump supporters will claim (with some justification) that every abuse of Trump also occurred with previous presidents, including Obama.  What they don’t see is that the appalling lack of class, the extreme dishonesty (even by politician standards), the paranoid conspiracy theories, the made up facts, the vindictiveness against perceived enemies, the xenophobia and zero sum thinking, etc., etc., are an order of magnitude worse than anything in modern history—even worse than Nixon.

Unfortunately some people just don’t see this, and they won’t be convinced by anything I or anyone else says.  They’ve made up their minds.

PS.  Even if I end up applauding Trump’s moves on corporate taxes, the FDA, vouchers, etc., I will never be happy with the process.  Once you become a banana republic, it’s hard to put the toothpaste back in the tube.

PPS.  While on the airplane I was reading a book by Robert Walser, and came across the following remark:

Should a ruler not lead by offering the most beautiful example, should he not be the gentlest, most patient man among his people?  Should he not be the best of men, and possess the biggest heart?


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66 Responses to “How would you feel about a President Bernie Trump?”

  1. Gravatar of Becky Hargrove Becky Hargrove
    25. January 2017 at 06:47

    It’s the loss of trust that is the real loss of wealth. What do we trust?

  2. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    25. January 2017 at 06:53

    “What they don’t see is that the appalling lack of class, the extreme dishonesty (even by politician standards), the paranoid conspiracy theories, the made up facts, the vindictiveness against perceived enemies, the xenophobia and zero sum thinking, etc., etc., are an order of magnitude worse than anything in modern history—even worse than Nixon.”

    -Hm…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oeB8JG1iHEU

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_soeyHVrawY#t=21m43s

    “If the business press is to be believed, every single major corporation in America is now terrified of Trump’s vindictiveness, and they are effectively silenced.”

    -The EPA is, but the companies definitely aren’t.

  3. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    25. January 2017 at 06:57

    I would not be surprised in the least by a Bernie Trump coming out of the Dem Party. As with Trump, I would support some of his agenda, and oppose other parts. I would still not be afraid of him as much as Crooked Hillary.

  4. Gravatar of bill bill
    25. January 2017 at 07:31

    Great post. Keep them coming.
    I’d definitely be appalled by a Bernie Trump.
    One disagreement. I want to see Trump’s tax returns. His businesses can’t be unwound or put into a blind trust so we need to know the potential conflicts in order to monitor them.

  5. Gravatar of Simon Turkel Simon Turkel
    25. January 2017 at 07:38

    Much appreciated. Thank you.

  6. Gravatar of sean sean
    25. January 2017 at 07:40

    I thought you were a market monetarist. Overall markets are saying that Trump is good for the country.

    I agree he doesn’t behave with class. A lot of people like that and I think its because with Obama we had class and were lied to behind our backs. So the simple lie is a bit refreshing. Trumps communications works because of Obama’s political style. The next guy probably refutes Trump’s style.

    Rex Tillerson is getting a lot of support from the economists and Elon Musk. I think he’s a homerun hirer. Far more experience beneficial to a SOS than HRC had coming in.

  7. Gravatar of mbka mbka
    25. January 2017 at 07:54

    Scott,

    This is how authoritarianism works, by bullying people into submission even before taking punitive action. Censorship also works best when the target shuts up even before being censored, out of fear. And yes, it’s a lot easier to break Humpty Dumpty than to put the pieces of the Republic back together. For what it’s worth, Trump’s most dangerous abuses are those that destroy the belief in values, e.g., his destructive targeting of the validity of the democratic process just to score personal points on his “victory”. A sore loser even when he wins, is there anything more pathetic? Furious in defeat, graceless in victory. One can only hope that he feels slighted on a daily basis by some minor issue and thus never gets any work done.

  8. Gravatar of Max Max
    25. January 2017 at 08:04

    The anticipation of being showered with billions of dollars takes the edge off the “terror”.

    Markets don’t care how terrible a person Trump is. All they care about is profit. They are beautifully amoral that way.

  9. Gravatar of Scott Freelander Scott Freelander
    25. January 2017 at 08:07

    Scott,

    Good comments. Trump is basically a right-g reactionary version of Chavez. It’s a personality cult and rule by individuals instead of laws and political norms. He has no sense of fairness, and yet he’s airways complaining about a lack of fairness toward him.

    Also, like Chavez, he has the support of even some otherwise intelligent people who don’t how dangerous and incompetent he is.

  10. Gravatar of sean sean
    25. January 2017 at 08:13

    Scott,

    I think you underestimate the value of obviously false lies. Its like trolling. It keeps the left focused on absurdities and distracted. Trying to disprove obviously false lies that everyone else knows is a fib. It makes them look like idiots getting outraged constantly. It works on you too.

  11. Gravatar of dtoh dtoh
    25. January 2017 at 09:03

    Scott,
    Yes it is disheartening to see the process. And no it would not be worth it if the only benefit was enactment of GOP legislation and picking up a point or two of GDP growth. But if the alternative is a decline into socialist misery, or the rise of real fascism in 2020 or 2024, or god help us, civil war, then yes I’m happy to see some toothpaste on the bathroom floor.

    As to the dishonesty, I think the spin and the intolerance of the liberal establishment and media over the last decade has been an order of magnitude worse and is the direct and proximate cause of the rise of a politician like Trump. Genteel resistance didn’t work so we got Trump instead. (I commented sometime ago that people view Trump as a honest liar… unlike the cunning spin meisters on the other side of the aisle.)

    Anyway the pendulum swings both ways so don’t despair.. maybe this is the medicine we need to return to more civil governance.

    BTW – If Trump releases his tax returns does that make you a liar or does it just make you wrong?

  12. Gravatar of dtoh dtoh
    25. January 2017 at 09:12

    @Sean
    Good point. I’ve thought the same thing myself. Talk about rope a dope. Trump shows the MSM a little flabby gut with the most ridiculous controversy his team could dream up, and presto the opposition women’s march gets about 10% of the ink and headlines it would otherwise have received.

    I don’t know if it’s hilarious or tragic to have such a moronic press.

  13. Gravatar of Matt McOsker Matt McOsker
    25. January 2017 at 09:28

    TPP is a horrid agreement. Chapter 9 on investments is the main reason to torpedo it.

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/04/joe-firestone-another-danger-tpp-sacrifices-monetary-sovereignity.html

  14. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    25. January 2017 at 09:58

    Sean, You said:

    “I thought you were a market monetarist. Overall markets are saying that Trump is good for the country.”

    God I hope you aren’t this dumb. And what did “the markets” think of Obama?

    mbka, That’s right.

    dtoh, You said:

    “Anyway the pendulum swings both ways so don’t despair.. maybe this is the medicine we need to return to more civil governance.”

    Yes, we can hope he fails and that the country recoils against what he represents. But I’d rather hope a president succeeds. It’s hard to do that with Trump.

  15. Gravatar of msgkings msgkings
    25. January 2017 at 10:24

    ssumner, one thing that may help reduce your stress level about this is that this kind of behavior in a president or even candidate is sui generis. I don’t think most, or indeed any, other people could get away with how Trump talks and acts. He’s a special case, he’s been the same character in the public eye for decades. It’s not like Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio or Bernie Sanders or whomever can start talking and acting like Trump and expect the same success.

    Yes, Trump has proven that the right kind of demagoguery can get a lot of traction, and that’s already a sad thing. But I don’t think it’s truly replicable.

  16. Gravatar of JMCSF JMCSF
    25. January 2017 at 10:31

    “Once you become a banana republic, it’s hard to put the toothpaste back in the tube.”

    Its also hard to put the oil burner down once you start smoking, but all the idiots from Meth Town, USA are too stupid to figure out how screwed we are.

    At least low-income Americans are doing alright by global standards?

  17. Gravatar of bill bill
    25. January 2017 at 10:48

    Perhaps the move in the stock market since the election is Up 20% due to proposed changes in corporate tax rates and Down 10% or so due to everything else?

  18. Gravatar of sean sean
    25. January 2017 at 10:54

    Bill. That could be true. Explain interest rates then that are signaling higher growth.

  19. Gravatar of Massimo Heitor Massimo Heitor
    25. January 2017 at 12:23

    “Now contemplate a left-wing version of the Donald, let’s call him Bernie Trump.”

    This thinking backs the logic of devolution of power, limiting power of the executive branch, even eliminating the office of the presidency, or even allowing states the right to secede. I agree.

    I do think Obama served as the head of a hard left authoritarian movement. And I do share Sumner’s fear that this rivalry can grow worse.

    “What they don’t see is that the appalling lack of class, the extreme dishonesty (even by politician standards), the paranoid conspiracy theories, the made up facts, the vindictiveness against perceived enemies, the xenophobia and zero sum thinking, etc., etc., are an order of magnitude worse than anything in modern history”

    “lack of class”: Google Obama lack of class, and you can see that this is a widespread accusation against Obama. Marco Rubio said Obama had a lack of class. And I support his outreach to Glozell, even if I personally can’t stand her.

    “vindictiveness against perceived enemies”: Obama spent his entire term bashing political opponents and insulting anyone who dissents from his agenda.

    “made up facts”: like ‘Islam Has Been Woven Into the Fabric of Our Country Since Its Founding’? Or Islam being the religion of peace which Bush 43 coined and Obama continued? Like the 2009 Fort Hood Shooting being officially classified as non-terror workplace violence? These are strategic lies with obvious political aims that are crafty to not be verifiably false by fact checking groups. These lies have broad support and enthusiasm from the university system elite and Hollywood elite.

    Trump and his team say more dumb obvious lies that serve no apparent purpose: Trump’s inauguration crowd was the biggest ever? What was the point of that lie? Maybe to enrage opponents?

    I find the calculated politically purposeful lies of Obama with broad support of the elites and the university system to be more dangerous than the ridiculous superficial lies of Trump that enrage the left.

    “Xenophobia” is basically a pejorative label for patriotism. As Trump said in his classy speech, “When you open your heart to patriotism, there is no room for prejudice”.

    Concern for escalating rivalry is real. Trump can really cause some beneficial creative destruction. The elites get complacent and periodically cleaning house can be healthy.

  20. Gravatar of Edward Edward
    25. January 2017 at 13:28

    The problem with economists, particularly mainstream economists such as yourself, is that you have beem told since your undergraduate studies that Ricardo is right, free trade is good, blah blah blah, end of story. Well, its wrong. Yes, free trade expands the overall pie, but the distribution of wealth gets distorted. Just because the economy is wealthier, doesnt mean people are better off than they were before. Canceling TPP was a great decision. And adding tariffs on imported goods is also the right decision. There is a big league difference between sitting behind a desk in academia, and theorizing on what ought to be, and owning a businss (like myself and trump) in the REAL WORLD. The rules of the game change. Its ruthless. Leave the desk, start business, and you might begim to understand. Cheers

  21. Gravatar of marcus nunes marcus nunes
    25. January 2017 at 14:27

    “They’ve made up their minds”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IPL5Qk4JufU

  22. Gravatar of Lorenzo from Oz Lorenzo from Oz
    25. January 2017 at 14:40

    Depressing at so many levels. The upside is that The Donald is somewhat a Man Alone, so more hopefully a case of This Too Shall Pass.

    If you want to read something even more depressing, try this (remembering that just because the Inauguration as passed, doesn’t mean some other triggering event can’t happen).
    https://storify.com/sphenoid/days-of-rage-pt-5-finale-what-does-it-portend

  23. Gravatar of dtoh dtoh
    25. January 2017 at 15:44

    @Scott
    Trump can succeed as President and at the same time the pendulum can swing back toward more civil discourse. They are not mutually exclusive, and IMHO they are both likely.

  24. Gravatar of bill bill
    25. January 2017 at 15:56

    @Sean,
    Good question. Maybe it’s Up 10% for growth, Up 10% for the corp tax cut and Down 10% or so due to the rest?

  25. Gravatar of d d
    25. January 2017 at 16:28

    @dtoh
    i doubt that civil discourse will ever return, because that would require that both sides participate.

    and the odds of that happening

    about 1 in 1 trillion at best

  26. Gravatar of B Cole B Cole
    25. January 2017 at 16:35

    Bombastic, churlish, intemperate, perfidious while oddly blurting truths—all that is Donald Trump. He is the Celebrity President.

    Yet global stock markets march towards new records.

    Business and consumer confidence up.

    Donald Trump is the first President in the post-war era to advocate policies that tighten labor markets.

    Corporate America loves The Donald.

    What a story.

  27. Gravatar of d d
    25. January 2017 at 16:38

    and given the results from the last election, i wouldnt really be surprised if a civil war happened. we seemed to have to widely divergent in views. and there has been no attempt to bring us back together. and given i dont expect that there will be attempt to do so, it just makes that civil war more likely. and to me it appears we are just rehashing the same problems from the first one

  28. Gravatar of B Cole B Cole
    25. January 2017 at 17:02

    For example, a vehicle produced in Mexico for export to Europe versus a vehicle produced in the United States to export to Europe: There’s a 10 percent tariff on that vehicle from the United States, whereas there’s no such thing in Mexico. It’s not just labor, it’s transportation costs, it’s access to these other markets. That’s why production is taking off in Mexico.

    –30–

    How nice.

  29. Gravatar of d d
    25. January 2017 at 17:19

    @b.cole, why would transportation be cheaper from Mexico than the US? most of it would be by sea, and it would be no cheaper than from the US. as most of work is done at sea, and seamen today arent Americans today. even the companies usually arent either. and most of the cost is fuel. just like airlines (unionized or not) their biggest cost is fuel.

  30. Gravatar of Ricardo Ricardo
    25. January 2017 at 17:24

    I doubt Trump will be able to keep his tax returns a secret forever because … hackers. State-actors, domestic or foreign, can get pretty much obtain, through hacking, any electronically stored information they want, if they devote enough time and money. You don’t think Trump will piss-off any state-actors ? Or heck, even motivated non-APT hacker groups might at some point pull this off.

  31. Gravatar of mbka mbka
    25. January 2017 at 18:16

    There’s one thing that really annoys me these days, and it is the pitiful quality of media coverage.

    First off, dtoh is right about one thing. The media is just as easily distracted as Trump is:

    “… the value of obviously false lies. Its like trolling. It keeps the left focused on absurdities and distracted. ”

    On a much deeper and more dangerous level, there is no realistic, neutral, incisive or even just cold blooded press coverage. Trump-sympathetic media are gushing of course, no surprise. Trump-critical media, i.e. the mainstream, are just focused on providing bromide for their audience. They focus on how none of what he does will pass congress, or is workable, or matters, etc. They’re underestimating the political process. But you can achieve a lot of destructive things in politics by forming the right coalitions.

    The world is full of awful governments that prove it daily, with support by lawmakers and ordinary people. Plenty enough ordinary people supported Mugabe and Chavez. Their victories were not entirely engineered, and their governments had support. So yes, Trump will be able to achieve a lot of the awful monuments to self that he is planning. They won’t help the nation or heavens forbid, the world out there. But any failures will be blamed on others, and Trump supporters will lap it up.

    And all I get to read in the papers is “oh don’t worry, this is all ridiculous and it won’t go far”. I know it’s ridiculous, which makes it all the more tragic that this may go very far in destroying what was a good, even awe-inspiring run for the planet in the past 35 years.

  32. Gravatar of Scott Sumner Scott Sumner
    25. January 2017 at 18:32

    msgkings, You said:

    “ssumner, one thing that may help reduce your stress level about this”

    On a list of things I find stressful, politics would not make the top 100.

    Massimo, You said:

    “I do think Obama served as the head of a hard left authoritarian movement.”

    Dear God, what did I do to deserve these commenters?

  33. Gravatar of mbka mbka
    25. January 2017 at 18:41

    Sorry I meant Sean with my quote above, not dtoh.

  34. Gravatar of ChargerCarl ChargerCarl
    25. January 2017 at 19:24

    Trump is the American Erdogan, but not as smart.

  35. Gravatar of Ray Lopez Ray Lopez
    25. January 2017 at 19:41

    OT- in an op-ed, John D. Mueller, WSJ 1/25/17, “Trump’s Real Trade Problem Is Money” explains the Triffin Dilemma (Google this) and advocates an int’l gold standard, as proposed by French minister J. Rueff, protege L. Lehrman, and US Rep. Jack Kemp. With a gold standard you’d not have big current account deficits, in the same way states, which can’t print their own money, don’t have big deficits. The advantage is a more price stable system. There’s no disadvantage, since IMO money is neutral, and the added bonus is that long-term debt accumulation by the USA would be tamed. The analogy is not having a credit card and having to write a check or pay cash for every purchase: it helps tame reckless spending.

  36. Gravatar of Major-Freedom Major-Freedom
    25. January 2017 at 20:02

    “I watched a bit of cable news…”

    Well that is a problem right there

  37. Gravatar of Massimo Heitor Massimo Heitor
    25. January 2017 at 21:02

    JMCSF,

    “all the idiots from Meth Town, USA are too stupid to figure out how screwed we are.”

    Scapegoating small town voters for all your problems.

    How “screwed” are we? DeVos will push charter schools? Tom Price will push a better health care policy? We will get some principled conservative supreme court justices. That isn’t bad at all.

    Sumner has promised us that Trump will flip on all his major promises and Trump will enact full blanket amnesty of illegal immigrants. He’s kept his word so far on nixing TPP and trying to build the wall.

  38. Gravatar of Benjamin Cole Benjamin Cole
    25. January 2017 at 22:57

    d-

    I should have provided quotes and cite.

    Kristin Dziczek, public policy researcher for the Center for Automotive Research, a nonprofit research organization in Ann Arbor, Mich

    https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/01/the-meaning-of-trumps-meeting-with-detroit-automakers/514316/

    She actually sounds like an apologist for the creation of Mexico, and not the U.S., as an auto manufacturing center to serve global markets.

    My observation is that the global auto industry and US lawmakers and trade-dealsters have somehow arranged for cars made in Mexico to dodge international tariffs, but not cars made in the U.S.

    This is probably an example of what some people mean when they say they are for against present trade arrangements, but “for fair trade.”

    What should a US-made car pay a tariff on sale to Europe, but not a Mexican-made car?

    What State Department ninnie agreed to that?

  39. Gravatar of Christian List Christian List
    26. January 2017 at 05:14

    @BC

    There’s a 10 percent tariff on that vehicle from the United States, whereas there’s no such thing in Mexico.

    Well, I assume that’s something between the US and Europe. I assume the US automakers wanted this as protection from the European car industry.

    I assume TTIP would have ended such tariffs but Trump is against those trade agreements, so…

  40. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    26. January 2017 at 06:04

    Edward, You said:

    “There is a big league difference between sitting behind a desk in academia, and theorizing on what ought to be, and owning a businss (like myself and trump) in the REAL WORLD.”

    That’s right. People in the real world, sorry REAL WORLD, don’t know anything about Ricardian trade theory. Thus they rely on common sense, and end up making a fool of themselves writing moronic comments at the end of blog posts.

    Ray, That’s right, countries don’t have deficits under a gold standard. All countries have balanced trade. Why didn’t we think of that before?

    Massimo, You said:

    “Sumner has promised us that Trump will flip on all his major promises”

    Sorry, today you’ll have to settle for second most moronic comment of the day, as Ray’s got the award wrapped up.

    Ben, You said:

    “What should a US-made car pay a tariff on sale to Europe, but not a Mexican-made car?

    What State Department ninnie agreed to that?”

    You do know that Mexico has a free trade agreement with Europe, and the US does not, don’t you?

    You said:

    “This is probably an example of what some people mean when they say they are for against present trade arrangements, but “for fair trade.””

    Yes, that’s a good example of how moronic the anti-free traders are, they’d think that imbalance is due to some sort of US trade deal.

    The US is not the only country in the world.

  41. Gravatar of Scott Freelander Scott Freelander
    26. January 2017 at 07:38

    Edward,

    Business people learn to compete in the microeconomic world. Macroeconomics is exactly the opposite in some ways. Microeconomic competition is often zero-sum. Trade between countries, for example, is economically mutually beneficial, and is not competition as a typical business person would understand it.

    Also, aggregate demand and supply analysis can be quite different from the analysis of demand and supply with respect to specific products or services.

    Trump doesn’t understand any of this. He thinks there can be winning and losing nations in free trade.

    He also moronically thinks that, for example, China is trying to out-compete the US by pushing a global warming myth. Since China’s much poorer-per-capita, with much higher real growth rates, they have much more to lose by restricting their economic growth too much due to environmental regulation.

    Trump just doesn’t understand how the world works.

  42. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    26. January 2017 at 09:59

    “That’s right. People in the real world, sorry REAL WORLD, don’t know anything about Ricardian trade theory. Thus they rely on common sense, and end up making a fool of themselves writing moronic comments at the end of blog posts.”

    -Same with you on foreign policy.

  43. Gravatar of Jose Jose
    26. January 2017 at 10:23

    Question for all:
    1. Is the current US tax system “border neutral”, meaning, it does not favor either domestic or foreign companies? Everyone seems to imply that the current system is NEUTRAL, therefore Trump’s ideas seem “protectionist”. What if the current system is BIASED, and Trump is actually doing something to make it NEUTRAL ?

    2. What if industrial jobs are really the important ones when it comes to productivity growth? What if the services sector will never be able to produce high productivity gains as the industrial sector can? If that is true, are Trump’s ideas so wrong then?

  44. Gravatar of Edward Edward
    26. January 2017 at 10:44

    Setting up factories in designated tax free economic zones, where workers (typically young vulnerable woman) are forced to leave their cocunut farms, and promised worldy riches from sleazy recruiters who often rape them, and force them to sign a contract that pays 20 cents a day on a 12 hour shift (7 days a week) — oh, and in the meantime the businesses that own these factories like IBM, Walmart, etc, etc, pay nothing in local taxes. That is slave labor. And if you think free trade is beneficial, I ask you to go there and look at what is happening. As a businessman, I travel all of the world. I make deals in those countries. I know whats going on. You think we live in the world of adam smith? Look around! These mega corpotions setup impentrable barriers to entry (buy in massive quantity, force factories into exclusive comtracts to crush the competitiom, give political donations to fix policy and zoning laws, etc, etc. thats not free competition.thats not free trade. Have you ever seen whats its like to live in an economy that is truly capitalist, with no rules and govt regulation? Let me tell you. It is hell. Workers get nothing. And i mean nothing. It turms into an oligachy, or a plutacrocy….there are many many examples. Understanding theory is one thing. But we dont live in that world….

  45. Gravatar of Edward Edward
    26. January 2017 at 11:03

    The point of free trade is to benefit people. If people are not benefiting from it, as in the example above, or in the example of u.s. citizens losing jobs, losing their communities to mega corps, mom and pops stores closing, political system being corrupted, etc, etc….all while slave labor is used in southeast asia and some pretty shamless deals are made with foriegn politicians to cut off competition, one must come to the conclusion that maybe its not good…

  46. Gravatar of Edward Edward
    26. January 2017 at 11:09

    As an economist, I think you ought to take into consideration that the bottom line, from a quantitative perspective, if its positive, doesnt necessarily mean that people are better off. I would love to see some outside the box thinking. I think we need that. We need a new theory. Thats my perspective. You can go ahead now with the ad hominem attacks. I see you like to use the word moron a lot when someone disagrees with you. Diversity of thouht is a good thing…btw. but seriously, think about it. Think about what the people on the ground, in the game, making these deals, are telling you. Its not make believe.

  47. Gravatar of d d
    26. January 2017 at 11:30

    @cole, i suspect that the creation of the Mexican auto industry was really driven by US automakers wanting to reduce labor costs in the US, plus its a lot easier to ship vehicles from Mexico to other countries, mainly cause of the baggage that comes from doing that the US (not taxes, or labor costs, but because of our history in SA, and other places)

    now the odd thing that you will note when you compare auto worker wages across the US, is that there isnt much difference for direct labor (mostly cause foreign car companies tended to pay the same rates) but what you would notice is that the number of hours per vehicle varies a lot. while some maybe union based, but a lot based more on the design of the vehicle, some just take longer to build than others. then there is the indirect labor costs (generally management, executives etc), and with US executive labor costs so high, this is higher than almost any foreign car company equivalent wages. Toyota doesnt pay its executives as well as say Ford or GM. but what we hear at union contract times is all about direct labor rates, because they are tying to control that, since its what they are focused on at the time (that and Wall Street loves that).

  48. Gravatar of Scott Freelander Scott Freelander
    26. January 2017 at 13:01

    Edward,

    American protectionism will do nothing to help Chinese workers, nor most American workers. A relatively small number f American jobs might be saved, but at the cost of some American jobs elsewhere, and while raising the prices of many goods for all Americans.

    As Milton Friedman used to say, blocking a country’s trade is actually a common tactic of war, and yet advocates for protectionism think such tactics will actually help their countries.

    By the way, Scott visits China pretty often, so I don’t know that you have much to teach him in that respect, and anyway visiting a country has nothing to do with understanding economics.

  49. Gravatar of Christian List Christian List
    26. January 2017 at 13:34

    Trump seems to move away from Putin already. He is talking about ‘safe zones’ in Syria. Pretty much exactly those zones Kerry and Hillary always wanted – and Obama always forbade. I don’t see how safe zones make any sense now (they surely would have made sense some years ago) but it’s interesting that Trump antagonises Putin already. The Russian media already reacted. I wonder how Putin fan Harding will take this.

    I think my prediction will come true: Trump will never ever be as close and friendly to Putin as the Western media in their endless ignorance predicted. He might as well confront him more than Obama ever did.

    Why would somebody like Trump bow to somebody like Putin? There’s a saying in my country: “There can be only one pike in a carp pond.” And another one: “A person needs to know if it’s the cook or the waiter.” Trump wants to be the cook and the pike, not the waiter or the carp. And he will make sure that everybody in the world takes notice.

  50. Gravatar of Christian List Christian List
    26. January 2017 at 13:43


    As Milton Friedman used to say, blocking a country’s trade is actually a common tactic of war, and yet advocates for protectionism think such tactics will actually help their countries.

    I’m (nearly) all for free trade but what kind of lame comparison is that? You are correctly stating that blocking trade is a very common and successful tactic – for example in war. So??? Hint: You need to find examples and cases in which it’s NOT a good tactic. That would really help your argument…

  51. Gravatar of d d
    26. January 2017 at 15:00

    i suspect that MR T has actually misread and lead those he leads into the idea that its the agreements that are bad. when in actuality its the agreements, its how the US has reacted to how its own citizens have been impacted by those agreements. basically the US has ignored them, and only done a bare minimum to help them with the pain that was done by the agreement. and its also ignored how what we can call AI and technology has impacted them also. with the only solution being suggested (not provided mind you) is education. problem is education isnt cheap now days, and having do it over and over again, will just make it worse. and then of course there is little to no guidance as far as what education to get, and how to get it paid for (though seem B suggested making it free). and now the forgoing has reaped the whirlwind as politically its become a disaster. course i dont see MR T ‘solutions’ being any better

  52. Gravatar of Steve Steve
    26. January 2017 at 20:07

    Didn’t we already have a President Bernie Trump?

    No I’m not talking about Obama, I’m talking about Franklin Delano Roosevelt.

    FDR ripped up all sorts of norms, from trashing private property and monetary norms, to court packing, an expansive welfare state, to breaking George Washington’s norm of two term limits, rounding up American citizens in prison camps, and baiting an Asian country into attacking us.

    So the question is did FDR save the country, by breaking garbage norms around gold and protecting destitute workers and crushing Hitler? Or did he ruin America forever by centralizing executive power, creating an unchecked welfare state, using radio to intimidate critics, and normalizing racial prison camps?

  53. Gravatar of Steve Steve
    26. January 2017 at 20:28

    Oh yeah, FDR also normalized using nuclear weapons against large civilian population centers. Take that Bashar!

    The point is, from the long arc of history, FDR did some terrible things and some great things. Many of the terrible things were reversed, but a few grew like cancers forever.

    More importantly, much of what he did was probably inevitable given the social economic and technological pressures coming to bear on society, no? What would an alternate FDR look like, someone afraid to experiment? Herbert Hillary?

  54. Gravatar of Massimo Heitor Massimo Heitor
    26. January 2017 at 21:33

    Slapping a 20% tariff on trade with Mexico will cause modest economic loss to customers/businesses in both Mexico/US.

    Mexican leader Vicente Fox insults American workers as lazy, undeserving, tv watching, beer drinkers. Vicente Fox takes photos giving the middle finger to the sitting US president. In the past, he talked down and gave demands to US president George W Bush. It’s more acceptable in US culture to burn a US flag than to burn a Mexican flag. The public figures and institutions on both sides of the border show more concern and care and respect for the people of Mexico than the people of the United States. This stuff matters.

    It’s worth paying the extra nickel for cucumbers to have some basic self respect. The patriotphobic economists just don’t get it. Donald J Trump does.

  55. Gravatar of Becky Hargrove Becky Hargrove
    27. January 2017 at 06:07

    Massimo,
    Apparently you’re not checking the grocery prices at the register, counting your change with every purchase, and facing a much higher grocery bill every time you walk in the door, for a wall you didn’t want.

  56. Gravatar of Scott Sumner Scott Sumner
    27. January 2017 at 06:38

    Jose, You said:

    “Is the current US tax system “border neutral”, meaning, it does not favor either domestic or foreign companies? Everyone seems to imply that the current system is NEUTRAL, therefore Trump’s ideas seem “protectionist”.”

    Trump doesn’t have any ideas. Yesterday his spokesman said Trump was switching away from tariffs to a border adjustment tax, (which is not protectionist). It’s silly to talk about Trump’s “ideas”, he’s like a small child. BTW, I’ve been saying this for a year, now even Trump’s aides are admitting that he’s just a clueless child:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/01/26/the-leaks-coming-out-the-trump-white-house-cast-the-boss-as-a-clueless-child/?utm_term=.88eed01e91f7

    I told you so!

    Edward, You know absolutely nothing about what’s going on in developing countries. Industrialization has raised hundreds of millions out of poverty. It’s the best thing that’s ever happened, and you make it sound bad. Bizarre. Those horrible conditions you describe are far better than what they left in the countryside. You really ought to learn something about the world before commenting here.

    Steve, FDR is a good comparison. And I think everyone would agree that an FDR type President who did those policies during a period of peace and prosperity would have been a total disaster. Imagine the NIRA and concentration camps and nuclear bombs during the Coolidge years. How does that sound?

    Massimo, So you hate brown skinned people because they once said something bad to a US politicians= who had called them racists and murders, and because you hate these brown skinned people, you want to strike out blindly at them with policies that will actually hurt us much more than it hurts them.

    Yes, I see why you like Trump.

    It goes without saying that you again win the dumbest comment of the day award.

  57. Gravatar of Jose Jose
    27. January 2017 at 10:44

    Prof. Sumner, i’m sure wapo citing NY times will try to make Trump look silly, don’t you think ? I don’t believe the ideas he talks about are not his, that I am sure. But my question still stands: is the current system “neutral”, i don’t think so…

  58. Gravatar of Jose Jose
    27. January 2017 at 10:53

    I meant “the ideas he talks about are not his” in the comment above

  59. Gravatar of morgan warstler morgan warstler
    27. January 2017 at 17:53

    “Sumner has promised us that Trump will flip on all his major promises and Trump will enact full blanket amnesty of illegal immigrants. He’s kept his word so far on nixing TPP and trying to build the wall.”

    Scott, this is a fact. Why are you calling him a moron?

    And here’s this:

    “Trump doesn’t have any ideas. Yesterday his spokesman said Trump was switching away from tariffs to a border adjustment tax, (which is not protectionist). It’s silly to talk about Trump’s “ideas”, he’s like a small child. BTW, I’ve been saying this for a year, now even Trump’s aides are admitting that he’s just a clueless child”

    I know a lot of folks in trump’s orbit for past 40 years. I grew up on him. I’ve got an IQ past yours. My dad sure does… Jesus man, I know 10 strong business owners who all love Trump.

    WHAT ARE YOU DOING?

    We appear to have gotten to a point where Trump could say, “hey this NGDPLT would really dial back Fed discretion”

    And you’d scream it was a terrible idea.

    LARRY KUDLOW – one the first guys to really listen to you, has Trump’s ear on Econ at least as much as Stephen Moore… and BOTH are guys who Trump will TRUST on Fed policy more than anyone on the damn Fed…

    You can’t keep saying Trump is a damn idiot who seems to make decent hires, dials back his stupidest ideas, improves on them in real time in front of you…

    Because the only real complaint you have is that Trump is perfectly transparent, he says whatever the hell he thinks and reserves the right to change his mind.

    Frankly, I EXACTLY understand his position on waterboarding…

    He doesn’t say, “hey Im going to force the whole military to do what i say”

    He says, “Well if the guys running things are SURE it doesn’t work, I wont force them but It sure seems like it works to me and guys I talk to” and he SAYS IT OUT LOUD, he’s not afraid of being wrong, he’s a frigging open book about it.

    Here’s the thing, I do this all the time in my job. I have some serious A level coders, and in the end, push comes shove, I will trust their reasoning, but they better be able to answer all my questions, bc thats their damn job, and sure maybe once twice I could completely over-ride them all – but thats not sustainable… but the thing is, along the way they have plenty of weakly held views, or things that their gut response changes as we talk… But they write code,they do not run the company, they do not design the product, they do not have the vision.

    Stop calling people smarter than you dumb, it’s really weird and out of character. it feels like you are havign a mental breakdown.

  60. Gravatar of dtoh dtoh
    27. January 2017 at 18:18

    @morgan

    +1

  61. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    27. January 2017 at 20:58

    Jose, So you are claiming that the press is just making up all these reports of insiders with contempt for Trump? I recall that line of defense when Nixon was President. And guess what, the press turned out to be completely right about Nixon. When a President starts blaming the press for his problems, you know he’s in trouble. Even conservatives like George Will don’t buy the garbage being peddled by Trump defenders.

    Morgan, If you don’t see the problem with Massimo, then I can’t help you. When did I predict that Trump would give amnesty to criminal illegals? Even Obama didn’t do that.

    Trump makes a complete fool of himself every single day, and his supporters pretend not to notice, like the public in the “Emperor has no clothes story.” Sad!!

    Waterboarding sounds like surfing, what Trump is proposing is far worse, it’s TORTURE.

    I love the defense of Trump. “Yes, he’s saying one idiotic thing after another, but it’s all part of his master plan to negotiate great deals.” We’ll praise him when the actual results are not quite as awful as the opening proposal.

  62. Gravatar of Dtoh Dtoh
    27. January 2017 at 21:10

    Scott
    Yes. People no longer believe what’s written in the WaPo especially from lying partisan hacks like Cilliza. Why do you think Trump got elected?

  63. Gravatar of Brian Brian
    27. January 2017 at 23:56

    Edward,

    Your take seems wrong on this subject. Just because developing country factory workers don’t get paid much and or that some companies are self-interested doesn’t mean that the workers’ alternatives are better. Why do you think the coconut farm was so great?

    You asked: “You think we live in the world of adam smith?” Nobody thinks that. Posing such a silly question makes it seem you don’t understand exactly what an informed mainstream view looks like.

    You said “adding tariffs on imported goods is also the right decision”. How would you like if I imposed a tariff on everything you imported into your household (food, shelter, computers) so that you were forced to grow your own food and build your own shelter. Got a surplus crop? Nobody to sell to because I’d be taxing them likewise. The unemployment rate would go to zero but you wouldn’t be better off.

    Your intuition is not serving you well.

  64. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    28. January 2017 at 07:48

    dtoh, If it’s a choice between trusting the press, which lies once and a while, and Trump, who lies incessantly, I’ll take the press 100 times out of 100.

    And do you really believe the WaPo is less honest than conservative media like Fox, the WSJ or the National Review? That’s crazy talk.

  65. Gravatar of dtoh dtoh
    28. January 2017 at 08:03

    Scott,
    I don’t watch Fox and haven’t read the National Review much in the last dozen years. Between WSJ and WaPo… no comparison. WaPo used to be OK. Now I don’t believe anything I read there except maybe scores for sporting events and the date on the masthead.

  66. Gravatar of morgan warstler morgan warstler
    28. January 2017 at 08:31

    Scott,

    You’re not smarter than Trump.

    What part of that do you not get? No, deep down you get it.

    You were smarter than Obama. You are smarter than Krugman.

    But you were far more respectful towards them.

    Maybe, you are just really nice and you never punch down (Krugman and Obama) and only punch up (Trump).

    Even then man, you sound rabid. It’s like Trump has caused you to lose your cool and made you shrill and petty.

    And YES WaPo is far less honest than Fox. It’s not even close.

    HONEST, means having a default moral support for the private sector vs. the public sector., for businessmen over academics.

    Because THAT IS THE REALITY.

    Fox is simply using the tone of voice that HONESTLY reflects the reality on the ground.

    America is a center-right nation anchored by the Trump states. The non-trump states are less “American” and more “other”

    WaPo HATES reality on the ground and analyzes everything thru that prism. That’s not honest.

    If WaPo wants to be HONEST about their advocacy, we’ll cut them more slack.

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