Demographic trends under Trump
A new Brookings article by William Frey discusses US demographic trends in recent years. One fact that jumps out is that for the first time ever the white (non-Hispanic) population is declining. Indeed the decline over the past three years has been sharp enough to offset gains prior to 2017, leading to the first decade of negative white growth:
(Note that many Hispanics identify as white, so this is a bit misleading.)
While the white non-Hispanic population declines, the black share of the population is fairly stable, edging up from 12.3% to 12.5%. It’s the other groups that are growing very fast, fed by immigration:
Wasn’t Trump supposed to stop this immigration? Fortunately, just as Trump was too lazy to address Covid-19 or build the wall or repeal Obamacare or build infrastructure or reduce the trade deficit, he was also too lazy to do much about immigration, which continued at roughly the same rate after he was elected. Legal immigration fell slightly, from about 1.18 million in fiscal 2016 to about 1.03 million in fiscal 2019, but the best estimates suggest that illegal immigration rose by a similar amount, leaving overall immigration little changed. What Trump did to is to skew immigration away from high skilled workers and toward low skilled workers.
As he gets more desperate, Trump is increasingly playing to his white nationalist base. But he’s not serving their interests. In the Alabama senate race, he’s opposing the most fervent supporter of his white nationalist policies, the man who supported Trump before anyone else—Jeff Sessions. This is good news. If the Trump movement switches from supporting alt-right ideals to a personality cult built around Trump, then his movement won’t survive after he passes from the scene. On the other hand a Tuberville win would be jumping from the pot into the fire. White nationalism would be weakened, but the politics of personality cults led by a macho leader would be strengthened.
Less fascist, more banana republic.
Happy Fourth of July!
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4. July 2020 at 19:07
“Fortunately, just as Trump was too lazy to address Covid-19 or build the wall or repeal Obamacare or build infrastructure or reduce the trade deficit, he was also too lazy to do much about immigration, which continued at roughly the same rate after he was elected.”
– How does a 60+ year old academic fail to grasp govt processes?
We don’t live in an authoritarian govt Scott. Congress has to enact legislation. He DID address healthcare, and it did not pass the congress.
– Re. Covid-19: You are ignoring facts. A previous commentator, who just happens to be an attorney at a prestigious law firm in Boston, mentioned some of the legal issues with quarantining and tracking data. The same methods employed in Taiwan and China, would violate a number of different laws. Apparently, you failed to grasp those facts. Or perhaps they didn’t fit inside the liberal box you’ve created for yourself. Hospitals also get a govt stipend if they call a case Covid. As a result, some hospitals have changed their definition. One hospital in Texas now marks a patient Covid if they “have a cough, and chest pain”. Are you surprised? That’s what happens when you subsidize an industry with “free tax payer money”.
– Why would a democratic congress approve the infrastructure bill? It doesn’t help them!
– Re. trade. Most Americans wanted tariffs! Most Americans wanted tougher regulations against Chinese graduates that work for the CCP Congress delivered!
– Immigration is not easy to stop. The border situation is a mess. And our laws are being manipulated. The point of the law was to help dissidents who were under real threat, not those suffering economically. You need support from all three branches to stop this!
4. July 2020 at 19:31
Alan, Trump told us that he was a master negotiator, and that he would get Congress to do whatever he told them. Do you remember his promise? So how did this master negotiator work Congress? He repeatedly mocked Senator McCain, making fun of the fact that he was captured in the war (where he was tortured.) Is that how you win friends and influence people? McCain was the deciding vote against repealing Obamacare. So much for Trump’s great negotiating skills. He’s no LBJ.
He never even asked Congress for infrastructure money—the Dems would be happy to spend the money. He just forgot to ask. He couldn’t even get a GOP Congress to spend on the Wall. Master negotiator?
On Covid-19 I can only assume you are joking. Trump sat around doing nothing for months, other than promise us that the problem would magically go away in April. We were way behind on testing, masks, etc., and Trump did nothing to speed the process along. He was for and against testing, for and against masks, for and against shutdowns. Constantly changing his mind. His only constructive idea was drinking BLEACH!
He’d wear a mask in private and take if off when the cameras were showing him. Is that leadership?
On immigration he promised he’d stop it. What happened?
You don’t seem to understand that Trump’s whole message was that he was tough, unlike weak people like Jeb Bush. He was a doer would would get things done. He said he force Congress to do what he asked. How can you make excuses for such abject failure?
Trump was the ultimate alpha male candidate—and now we are to feel sorry for him, because he was too weak to achieve anything he promised?
BTW, polls suggest that most Americans support international trade.
4. July 2020 at 21:42
Hey Scott, I have a request. I’m just one reader, so feel free to ignore it, but in case it’s something you wouldn’t mind blogging about. I’d be very interested in a recap of the causes of the Great Recession. I understand that your main thrust has always been that the Fed was too tight, but you also had a post about the Recession being a Perfect Storm with multiple causes.
Of course nearly everyone still believes the GR was due to a housing bubble caused by Goldman Sacks.
Maybe none of this matters now that the economy has been hit by a meteor, but I’m still trying to get it clear in my head what caused the Great Recession. Those days seemed so carefree compared to today that it’s almost escapism to think about them.
If you do do such a recap, please include other leading theories that aren’t yours. Destroy them, if that is your want, but it would be nice to see all the leading theories laid out and criticized from this vantage in time. Don’t forget the one about peak oil.
5. July 2020 at 00:25
“If the Trump movement switches from supporting alt-right ideals to a personality cult built around Trump, then his movement won’t survive after he passes from the scene.”
…unless Tom Cotton re-ignites it in a far more serious form. It’s encouraging to see that the base just likely won’t be there for that scenario to succeed.
5. July 2020 at 06:20
alan, do you not see all the travel and immigration restrictions Trump is performing via presidential proclamation due to the COVID crisis, practically suspending all immigration? Have Congress and the courts stopped him? And do you remember Trump’s first major action when becoming President was to unilaterally ban travel from several Muslim countries, including preventing US green card holders from those countries from returning to the US, an action which was not stopped by Congress but only partially reversed after massive street protests around the country? Not to mention all the trade stuff is entirely done unilaterally by the president. What significant things has Congress done in the last four years by comparison? The US is basically an authoritarian presidential dictatorship now with Congress being fairly useless, especially in crises, and the courts still somewhat independent but full of people appointed by the president.
5. July 2020 at 08:11
Raver, I have a paper with Kevin Erdmann coming out in a few weeks, which is sort of on that topic.
And I have a book coming out next year (UC Press) on that topic.
Meanwhile, you can try Googling my older papers such as “The Real Problem Was Nominal”
Cartesian. Exactly. If Tom Cotton was likely to be successful then Jeff Sessions would be running away with the Alabama race. Instead he’s 20 points behind in the polls. The voters don’t care about ideas.
5. July 2020 at 08:14
Raver, Let me add one observation. The Eurozone was not at the zero bound during 2008-13, and yet had a deeper fall in NGDP than the US. So it wasn’t a zero bound problem that was causing the fall in NGDP. It was garden variety tight money. For the ECB, the stance of monetary policy was exactly where they wanted it.
5. July 2020 at 09:51
Scott – don’t you worry even a little bit about mass low skill immigration from Mexico and Central America? Forget even about the contentious racial aspect of it – significant low skill immigration from *anywhere* is disastrous over the long term. There are many that point to California as an example of what the entire country would look like in 50 years – but look at the state’s standardized test scores; they are abysmal. California is successful because it attracts people from the rest of the country, not because of its “native” population.
I’m sure your argument will be – “OK, that’s an argument *for* immigration; the U.S. can just continue to attract high skill individuals from the rest of the world!” But how long can that last? What happens once China, South Asia, Eastern Europe, etc. are developed economies? How many Japanese Americans are left?
5. July 2020 at 09:59
sd0000, Just to be clear, I oppose Trump’s policy of skewing immigration toward lower skilled groups, and indeed would favor more high skilled immigration.
But when people talk about where the US is going in 50 years they basically describe the current demographics in California and Texas (both minority white). I actually like these two states, much more than white states like Maine and West Virginia.
So I’m not worried if the US as a whole increasingly resembles California and Texas. But again, I oppose Trump’s skewing policy toward low skilled immigrants. I’d gladly take another 50 million high skilled Chinese and Indian immigrants. But we need some low skilled immigrants. Who will do the service work for all those Silicon Valley engineers?
(As an aside, plenty of Latin American immigrants are high skilled; I know some of them. Ditto for African immigrants.)
5. July 2020 at 18:47
Trump is even worse than has been said in comments here. Look at this announcement on the State Department website, which appeared back in February:
https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-announces-assistance-to-combat-the-novel-coronavirus/
Trump’s administration donated almost 18 tons of medical supplies to China, including respirators and PPE.
Trump was praising China’s response to the virus, which up to that point was trying to play catch up after they publicly denied there was much of a problem until the virus spread widely. Here’s Trump, still praising China 3 weeks later:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94MsoVGua_U
How can anyone praise China, while sending them supplies they were desperate for? If they were desperate for supplies, doesn’t that suggest they botched the response?
Then, by May 1st, Trump was trying to blame China for the pandemic, even lying by saying China created the virus in a lab:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pX6Zr2WM4uE
How can anyone not realize what a fool and liar Trump is?
6. July 2020 at 05:40
If the US will be more like California in 50 years, does that mean the US will have even worse pension funding shortfalls, a severe lack of housing, even higher rates of poverty, a lack of water, more air pollution, and regular and more air pollution?
Population growth is always problematic when you lack developable land. Maybe California’s politicians can change their regulatory regime regarding residential building, but so far they haven’t been able to do so.
6. July 2020 at 06:26
There has always been a yawning gap between the rhetoric and policies of the demographic alarmists. They insist that the U.S. is on track for an aging population, that we’re only a decade behind Japan’s elderly society.
So, young people ask for the basics that would enable them to have children:
– May we have an affordable housing supply?
– May we have affordable neonatal healthcare?
– May we have affordable childcare?
– May we have a sustainable planet and a livable future?
To which the olds respond:
– No, more housing would hurt my property values
– No, it’s going to cost $10,000 – $30,000 just to give birth to a child
– No, it’s going to cost you $1,200 / month for childcare
– No, I refuse to pay a carbon tax or take any action to stop climate change
So, between college debt, inflated rent, inflated healthcare, inflated childcare, and a dim prospect for a future, what are young people supposed to do?
6. July 2020 at 06:49
Alan——I agree with you. You may have followed Scott for awhile, don’t know, but you do not comment often. Scott is worth following (read econlib.org for his best on average and sometimes he does write excellent pieces——among his best——on this site) but his politics are plain vanilla anti Trump. Liar, thief, white supremicist with an extremely precise dog -whistle——not sure about his Russia hoax beliefs——stupid, lazy, completely uninvolved, self absorbed, has no impact on government—-just on stupid voters—-and worst president ever. He identifies as Libertarian, and I while he has not said who he will vote for, he has said it will never be for Trump.
Nothing you can say about anything that happened to go well in last 3.5 years can be attributed to Trump except by accident. No comparison with past presidents matter. In other words, he is like every other anti Trump guy——they cannot be simply opposed to him——-it is critical they let everyone know he is the worst President ever——and nothing can ever change that opinion.
6. July 2020 at 07:11
Michael Rulle,
I’m curious… Who was a worse President than Trump. Also, what’s he done that was any good, other than sign a tax bill he had nothing to do with formulating?
6. July 2020 at 09:53
Michael, You said:
“How can anyone not realize what a fool and liar Trump is?”
Yes, and these lies happen multiple times every single day. Today he made up some story about a NASCAR lynching “hoax”. No evidence it ever happened.
Burgos, Maybe, but overall California is a great place to live. I love it here. And not just because I’m rich. Nearby Santa Ana is 75% Hispanic, and is also a great place to live, despite the problems.
Michael Rulle, You said:
“Nothing you can say about anything that happened to go well in last 3.5 years can be attributed to Trump except by accident.”
Oh, so now presidents are responsible for how the economy is doing? The 11% unemployment–is that Trump’s doing? Or is your argument only applicable to times when things are going well under a GOP administration and badly for a Dem administration?
At least I’m consistent, unlike most other people.
6. July 2020 at 12:45
Scott,
You are being too optimistic about these demographic trends. White America may not be as exciting as a multiracial country, but it is much richer and more stable. White Protestant culture is the most successful large culture in the United States, and that group has had the highest per capita income of any group in the United States over the largest time frame with the largest numbers.
As Walter Williams and Thomas Sowell points out, the average Hispanic and Black in America have the functional skills of a white of a much younger age. For instance, Blacks in the 12th grade have the functional skills of Whites in the 6th grade. That is not a good bearing of where America is going to head. Of course, you will probably be dead by the time the changes begin to have a substantial material impact. South African Whites seem pretty miserable these days since they are all fleeing the state. America’s whites may soon follow.
Trump couldn’t have done anything to slow down the changes since all the other racial/ethnic groups have higher birthrates than Whites. He would have needed to pass an explicit law promoting White birthrates/ suppressing minority birthrates to have won that fight. On the other hand, Russia just passed that and China is making it explicit policy, so maybe those social changes will reach here as well.
6. July 2020 at 12:48
Of course, if Welfare reform passes, then maybe Blacks and Hispanics will regain the culture that they once had. Then things will be fine. Otherwise…
6. July 2020 at 19:44
“ California is a great place to live. I love it here. And not just because I’m rich.”
This seems like a very self unaware comment. California has the very highest poverty rate in the nation. Of course California is a great place to live if you are rich. But the net migration numbers seem to indicate that it isn’t a great place to live if you aren’t wealthy, with the state losing large numbers of households earning less than $100k a year and only gaining in households earning $100k a year or more. That sounds more like kleptocracy than the American Dream.
7. July 2020 at 08:52
Bazinga, By your logic we’d be better off if all the blacks went back to Africa and all the Hispanics went back to Latin America. Do you really believe that?
American was founded as a multiracial society with open immigration. I believe in traditional American values of openness and diversity, whereas those that want to make us a white country that is and less open are rejecting traditional American values. Hispanics have lived in Texas since before 1776; they are just as American as white Protestants.
Burgos, Yes, many people move out, but many also move in, including many low income people from other countries. Even in lower income areas, California is a very nice place to live.
7. July 2020 at 13:39
alan you write:
“– How does a 60+ year old academic fail to grasp govt processes?
We don’t live in an authoritarian govt Scott. Congress has to enact legislation. He DID address healthcare, and it did not pass the congress. ”
But Trump said over and over and over and over again “Only I can fix it!”
Looks like he’s a liar or a failure or both.
7. July 2020 at 13:44
Scott you write:
“Hispanics have lived in Texas since before 1776; they are just as American as white Protestants.”
Even longer in Florida and California.
7. July 2020 at 16:25
Scott,
The founders wanted only white immigration. Hence the 1790 naturalization act, which only allowed White immigrants.
I do not want anyone to have to go back. What I want is to fix the culture that Black and Hispanic America have before having any additional immigration. Then the downside risks are minimized.
8. July 2020 at 07:30
Bazinga, I’m not sure you have your facts right. Based on what I recall reading, blacks were still being brought over as slaves in 1790, Hispanic immigration was allowed, and Asian immigration wasn’t banned until the late 1800s. It that’s wrong, someone correct me.
That pattern doesn’t suggest the founders favored a lily white country.