About Australia’s second wave

Australia is being hit by a fairly sizable second wave of Covid-19, while New Zealand has no significant community transmission. (Just a few imported cases in quarantine.) As of today, New Zealand has only 22 active cases. Australia has 9238.

Those are the facts, but facts can be misleading. Outside of the two states of Victoria and New South Wales, Australia has only 22 active cases, exactly the same number as New Zealand. And while the other Australian states are not particularly populous, their combined population is close to 12 million, vs. 5 million in New Zealand.

(Taiwan has 30 active cases in a population of 24 million. It is also free of community transmission.)

So while Australia is having a second wave, so far it’s mostly in Melbourne. (Knock on wood.) It will be interesting to see if they can keep it contained.


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8 Responses to “About Australia’s second wave”

  1. Gravatar of Benjamin Cole Benjamin Cole
    11. August 2020 at 15:36

    New Zealand city of Auckland prepares for lockdown as mystery COVID cases emerge
    Praveen Menon

    WELLINGTON (Reuters) – New Zealanders on Wednesday scrambled to stock up on essentials as the country’s biggest city prepared to go into lockdown again, following new cases of the coronavirus that ended a 102-day record run without any new infections.

    —30—

    Not often talked about, but dogs and cats can catch Covid-19 also. There could be many reservoir populations for Covid-19.

  2. Gravatar of Benjamin Cole Benjamin Cole
    11. August 2020 at 16:08

    “NEWS ROUND-UP 05 AUGUST 2020 Nature.com

    Coronavirus in pets

    The latest science news, in brief.

    Testing in Italy found that dogs and cats have SARS-CoV-2 infection rates comparable to those of humans.

    Pets’ coronavirus infection rates mirror people’s
    Cats and dogs are just as likely to be infected with the virus SARS‑CoV-2 as people are, according to a survey in northern Italy that is the largest study of the coronavirus in pets so far.

    Nicola Decaro at the University of Bari and his colleagues took nose, throat or rectal swabs of 540 dogs and 277 cats in northern Italy between March and May, according to a preprint study that has not yet been peer-reviewed (E. I. Patterson et al. Preprint at bioRxiv http://doi.org/d4r7; 2020). The animals lived in homes with infected people, or in regions severely affected by COVID-19.

    None of the pets tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA, but in further tests of antibodies against the virus circulating in the blood of some animals, the researchers found that around 3% of dogs and 4% of cats showed evidence of previous infection.

    Infection rates among cats and dogs were comparable with those among people in Europe at the time of testing, suggesting that it is not unusual for pets to be infected.”

    —30—

    Perhaps we need masks for dogs and cats.

  3. Gravatar of Rajat Rajat
    11. August 2020 at 18:24

    Speaking from the centre of the Australian second wave in Melbourne, the state government has opened an inquiry into how the virus escaped from hotel quarantine. A genomics report apparently indicates that most current cases are linked to those breaches: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-07/victoria-cho-brett-sutton-hotel-quarantine-covid-19/12534494
    Other states did not experience the same quarantine breaches and it appears that the Victorian government’s decision to use private security firms rather than police officers or defence force staff was responsible.
    Even in Melbourne, the virus is highly concentrated in areas (mainly outer suburbs) with more recent migrants and low-paid workers:https://covidlive.com.au/report/active-cases-by-lga-per-capita

  4. Gravatar of Benjamin Cole Benjamin Cole
    11. August 2020 at 19:50

    “Victorian government’s decision to use private security firms rather than police officers or defence force staff was responsible.”

    Call out the troops!

    Rajat: Singapore is having a similar problem with densely packed, dormitory housing for guest workers, who make up more than one-third of the Singapore workforce. Bengalis, Indians and others who sleep perhaps 20 to bunk room.

    Singapore has deployed “ring fencing” around dorms, and limited movement of guest workers.

    Foreign Policy magazine: “Singapore Locks Away Migrants in Pandemic Fight”

    In one regard, the forced sequestering of guest workers has worked: Singapore has recorded 55,353 C19 cases, but only 27 deaths.

    How is that low number of deaths possible?

    The only people getting infected in Singapore are the guest workers, now largely confined to dormitories, or “community isolation centers.” They are young.

    The problem for Singapore is this: There are about 1.4 million guest workers in Singapore, yet only 55,000 recorded as infected so far. Even if the true number of infections is higher, they have a long way to go to get herd immunity or possibly a vaccine.

    These people will be locked in their dorms for a long time, but the citizen population is safe, though very, very vulnerable. Very few cases among citizens, and no herd immunity.

    Lockdowns seemed to also have worked in China, again if draconian measures are applied.

    The US has de facto open borders, no ring fencing around crowded migrant or low-income housing, and no tradition of compliance with draconian lockdowns.

    Yet still a novel virus and a naive population.

    The results are obvious. Lots of C19 in the US.

  5. Gravatar of Tony Tony
    12. August 2020 at 00:21

    In Australia, the virus has spread North into New South Wales (Sydney) and Queensland. So far, it seems Queensland is again very close to eradicating the virus once again. NSW has it contained the spread, but the State’s leader seems unwilling to mandate masks or take stronger measures to fully re-eradicate the virus. Really, they are a few super spreader events from losing control.

    In Melbourne, it seems there are large levels of non compliance. 800 of 3000 infected people weren’t in home quarantinr when the military checked in on them. Hemce there is now a curfew and 5km travel limit for six weeks in metropolitan Melbourne.

  6. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    12. August 2020 at 09:47

    Tony and Rajat, Thanks for the info.

  7. Gravatar of Benjamin Cole Benjamin Cole
    12. August 2020 at 17:25

    “In Melbourne, it seems there are large levels of non compliance. 800 of 3000 infected people weren’t in home quarantinr when the military checked in on them. Hemce there is now a curfew and 5km travel limit for six weeks in metropolitan Melbourne.”–Tony.

    Really? Going to quarantines supervised and enforced by the military? Five kilometer travel limits? Curfews on total populations?

    Perhaps this is necessary to effect a successful lockdown, and probably it is. Along with strictly enforced border controls.

    Will lockdowns work in the US? Why not? Have any ideas?

  8. Gravatar of Tony Tony
    12. August 2020 at 19:19

    Hi Benjamin,

    Indeed, most workplaces also shut down. I.e. this is what’s called a “Stage 4 + masks”.

    We aren’t sure why such high levels of non-compliance happened. In Queensland it seemed 98%+ people complied with isolation orders when they were positive or waiting for a test result.

    The general theory is that it was some combination of 1) social pressures for people to visit friends and family in denser suburbs. 2) casual workers needing to go to work. 3) People not caring. Perhaps poorer ESL communities and highly privileged individuals continuing their lifestyles. One prominent example is a well off couple who broke quarantine to visit the Mornington Peninsula (wine country) after they came back from Aspen, then recently they traveled to the Victorian country for its ski season).

    To address #2 both State and Federal governments have instituted welfare payments. At state level, $300 if you are waiting for a test and can’t get sick leave. $1500 if you need to isolate for two weeks and can’t get sick leave. The Federal Government is supply paid pandemic leave which is effectively sick leave for casuals.

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